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Climate vulnerability & adaptation in the Dutch delta. 1. The Netherlands. Setting : Small country with a population of 17 million Delta of four river basins 26% is below sea level 60% is susceptible to flooding Flood-sensitive area is densely populated High level of flood protection. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Jelle van Minnen
23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
1
Climate vulnerability & adaptation
in the Dutch delta
2
The Netherlands
Setting: Small country with a
population of 17 million Delta of four river basins 26% is below sea level 60% is susceptible
to flooding Flood-sensitive area
is densely populated High level of flood
protection
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONETVulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
3
The past…
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONETVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Large plans implemented as response to floods 1916 floods (North)Structural solutions with dams and barriers (Afsluitdijk dam to create IJsselmeer)
1953 flood disaster (South-West)First Delta CommitteeStructural solutions with dams and barriers (Delta Works)
1993/1995 high water levels (Rivers, large evacuations)Also spatial solutions: Room for the River/Meuse Projects
JJelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONETVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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Sealevel rise
More /extreme storms
More/intense rainfall
Spatialdevelopments
Increased erosion
Subsidence
Salt intrusion
Decreasedriver
discharge
Increased river
discharge
Delta under pressure: Challenges for the future
5
Climate Change Challenges in the Netherlands
Dutch Delta Programme & Delta Act Started in 2010 Objective: A safe and attractive
country, also at the end of the century Annual update to parliament 5 D’s Focus
– Flood protection– Freshwater supply– (Re)development of built-up areas
1. ARK & adaptation Strategy (2007)
2. State Committee Veerman (2008)
PBL study on IVA Started in 2009 Broad assessment 2 steps
– Impacts & vulnerability– Strategic options
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
6
Delta Programme Delta Act (to ensure continuity)
– Delta Commissioner– Delta Fund
Delta Decisions (2014/2015)
The five Dutch D’s
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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Delta programme now – 2015Ongoing implementations & programs under DP: Improve current satefy level
–Flood Protection Program / Weak Links in Coast– Organizing safety on the basis of dyke inspections– Room for the River / Meuse Projects– 90 projects along the rivers
At the same time looking further ahead: Preparing Delta Decisions (2015)
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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• 3 national decisions:
• Safety standards + program
• Urban and spatial restructuring
•Freshwater strategy +measures
• 2 regional decisions
Delta decisions, 2015 Safety standards
Urban restructuring
Freshwater
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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PBL report ‘Climate adaptation in the Dutch delta’
Both impacts & adatation assessment Adaptation: Step towards solutions:
what can be done? Identification of strategic options:
– Flood protection– Freshwater supplies & water quality– Nature & biodiversity– Urban development
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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PBL report ‘Climate change impacts in the Netherlands’
Cooperation with: KNMI, Deltares, WUR, Utrecht Uni., Maastricht Uni.
Assessment observed & projected Opportunities & risks Sectors/chapters:
– Climate System– Water: safety & supply & quality– Nature & biodiversity– Agriculture– Health– Tourism
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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I: Flood protection
new
current
Risk depends on upstream measures
14
I: Flood protection Problem: rising sea level and increasing river discharges
Risk = probability x effect
Option 1 adjustments to built-up areas (long-term proces) Option 2 application of ‘Delta dykes’ (= unbreachable)
Present policy
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
PBL advice
15
Delta dykes: almost unbreachable
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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Advantages of Delta dykes
Strong decrease in casualties (50-80%)
Strong reduction in economic losses
Efforts for adjusting built-up area reduced
Less vulnerable to unexpected extremes caused by climate change
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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Disadvantage: Delta dykes more costly
Present policy
1500 kmDelta dykes
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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Summary (i)
Impacts
Many changes have been observed. But not everything is changing yet.
Some future changes are more uncertain than others (even sign)
Despite multiple future changes, in general NL is climate robust
Critical issue for the Netherlands is fresh water availability, nature & health
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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Summary (ii)
Adaptation options & strategies
Fundamenal choices needed for more climate-resilient NL
– Unbreachable dykes
– Climate-proofing freshwater supplies needs more flexible water system & better use of water in river Rhine.
– Implementation of climate-proofing measures in urban development requires early integration in planning and decision making and flexibility in financing mechanisms.
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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www.pbl.nl/en
Report ‘Climate adaptation in the Dutch delta’
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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II: Freshwater supplies Problem: in most dry scenario tipping point near 2050
if water demand increases, before 2050
Challenge: Enough fresh water in dry summers
Balancing water supply demand
PBL advice:1.Increase flexibility in water systems 2.Increase efficiency of water use for both national and
regional waters
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
24
Option flexibility in water supply: national waters
Even in extremely dry summers, 80% of the available Rhine wateris used to prevent salinisation by the New Waterway
Here, salinisation could be prevented using less fresh water
New Waterway80% of Rhineflow
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
25
Flexibility in water supply:
Since Committee Veerman strong focus on IJsselmeer(water level + 1.5 meter)
PBL: Focus on better use of Rhine water.
10% of Rhine at New Waterway ≈ 1 meterwater-level fluctuationin IJsselmeer
New Waterway:of nationalimportance
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
26
Flexibility in water supply: Better use of Rhine water
Since Committee Veerman strong focus on IJsselmeer(water level + 1.5 meter)
PBL: Focus on better use of Rhine water.
New Waterway:of nationalimportance
27
Flexibility in water demand:
No overview of potential effects of measures per region Main uses are for agriculture and water-level management
Options to address drought risks without extra water supplies:– Accept drought losses, or insure them– Large-scale water storage in regions: not cost-effective– Adjust crops: choices are dominated by markets, not by water– Adjust regional water management: seems no regret
Studies indicate:– Reduction in water use of 40 – 80% seems possible at low costs,
for instance by accepting flexible salinisation standards in extreme dryyears
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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IV: Urban areas Problem: flood risks, increasing water nuisances, heat risks
Challenge: A climate-proof development of urban areas
PBL advice: Knowledge, expertise and effective measures are available
Flexibility in urban infrastructure is limited
Integration of adaptation measures in new urban development, redevelopment or maintainance programme today is needed to reduce additional costs in the future
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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Measures and actors on different scales
Potential measures Use of buildings Insulation of buildings Adjust treshold height Water retention within streets Street vegetation … … Water retention under streets Upgrade sewerage system Create ponds and parcs Thermal storage systems … Green networks Blue networks
COMPLEX network of public and private
actors
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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Preconditions for seizing opportunities
Integration of climate adaptation early on, in planning and design processes
Clear responsibilities
Integration in decision-making process
More flexibility in financing mechanisms
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
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PBL report ‘Climate change impacts in the Netherlands’ (iv)Nature & Biodiversity Observed Projected