Impact of 8760 Analysis on Value of Energy

• Council & RTF use 48 time segments per Year– 12 Months– Four Hourly Time Bins each month

• Considering move to 8760 time segments– Impact on value of energy– Impact on peak capacity calculations

• Consider move to 24 time segments per Year– High Load Hours and Low Load Hours by month– Mimic common trading blocks – Faster run time, requires less detail on hourly prices, savings

shapes, line losses, carbon, etc.

Four-Segment Load Shape MapFour Hourly Segments by 12 Months = 48 Segments

Hour Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday HolidayDay of Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 42 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 43 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 44 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 45 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 46 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 37 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 38 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 39 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

10 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 211 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 212 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 213 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 214 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 215 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 216 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 217 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 218 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 219 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 320 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 321 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 322 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 423 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 424 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

Annual 48-Segment Prices (6P)

Monthly Price by Hour Segment

Evaluate Impact of Hourly Analysis

• Seasonality: – 48-Seg captures seasonality of prices

• Hourly: – 48-Seg captures some hourly effects of prices,

obscures others– 48-Seg may not capture peak kW impacts

• Question: How big a difference?

Impact

• Impact of hourly analysis– Depends on shape of savings– Biggest impact if hourly savings shape is different

than hourly price shape– Depends on hourly savings shapes within each

hourly time bin (or time-segment)• Tested against peakiest hourly savings shape– Which savings shape?

Which Savings Shape is Peaky

• Res AC?, Water heat?, Ag Irrigation?,

Res COOK

ResCOOK Savings Shapes(Weekday January)

ResultsPrice Shape Savings Shape PV 2008 PV 2010-2030

48-Segment 6P 48-Seg FLAT 51.450168750283400 1231.3648528269

8760-Segment 6P 8760-Seg FLAT 51.450168750283500 1231.3648528267

48-Segment 6P 48-Seg ResCOOK 58.920 1304.25

8760-Segment 6P 8760-Seg ResCOOK 62.292 1334.83

48-Segment 6P ? ? ?

8760-Segment 6P ? ? ?

48-Segment 6P ? ? ?

8760-Segment 6P ? ? ?

ProCost Testing Incomplete

Test with Excel

End