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IIHS
2nd Annual Regional Safety Conference
Emerging Vehicle Safety Technology
October 18, 2007
Stephen Oesch
IIHS
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS)
Identify and develop countermeasures to reduce human and economic losses on our nation’s highways
Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI)
Gather, process, and publish data on ways in whichinsurance losses vary among different kinds of vehicles
IIHS www.iihs.org
IIHS
Motor vehicle crashes, 2006NHTSA
5,930,000 police-reported crashes
2,575,000 injured
42,642 killed
Additional crashes that aren’t reported to police but result in insurance costs
5,930,000 police-reported crashes
2,575,000 injured
42,642 killed
Additional crashes that aren’t reported to police but result in insurance costs
IIHS
Auto Insurance losses from motor vehicle crashes2006
20 million claims
$27 billion in collision coverage losses
$18 billion in property damage liability coverage losses
$32 billion in injury claim losses
– $22 billion in BI coverage
– $6 billion in PIP coverage
– $4 billion in MedPay coverage
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Everyone is curious about the car of the future
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Continuum of safetyReducing crashes and their consequences
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Normal drivingMultiple sensors monitor driver and vehicle to identify potential hazards
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Reducing the risk in high-risk situations ESC helps vehicle stay on intended path
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Reducing risk in potentially dangerous situationsWarn driver and reduce vehicle speed
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When crash is inevitablePrepare safety systems for impact
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Crash sequence beginsDeploy airbags
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After the crashAutomatically notify emergency personnel of crash severity and location
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Normal drivingMultiple sensors monitor driver and vehicle to identify potential hazards
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2006 BMW 5 series
Parking sensors$1,520
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2006 BMW 5 series
Adaptive cruise sensor$1,908
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Reducing the risk in high-risk situations ESC helps vehicle stay on intended path
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Percent of vehicle models with ESC
0
10
20
30
40
50
1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
model year
standardoptional
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Federal rule on ESCApril 2007
ESC will be required on new passenger vehicles
– September 1, 2008: 55% must comply
– September 1, 2009: 75% must comply
– September 1, 2010: 95% must comply
– September 1, 2011: 100% must comply
Maneuver test requirement
Hardware and software requirements
ESC will be required on new passenger vehicles
– September 1, 2008: 55% must comply
– September 1, 2009: 75% must comply
– September 1, 2010: 95% must comply
– September 1, 2011: 100% must comply
Maneuver test requirement
Hardware and software requirements
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Reducing risk in potentially dangerous situationsWarn driver and reduce vehicle speed
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Success of technologies depends on answers to three questions
What is size and nature of crash problem addressed?
What kinds of information will elicit right responses from drivers?
How will driver behavior change in response to technology?
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What accounts for spectacular success of ESC?
ESC prevents many run-off-road and rollover crashes, types that often result in serious injuries and deaths
ESC takes action for driver
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Lane departure warning system
Camera mounted behind rearview mirror looks at road ahead and monitors vehicle position in relation to lane markings. If vehicle wanders out of lane, driver is warned with sound, visual, and/or haptic signals.
Camera mounted behind rearview mirror looks at road ahead and monitors vehicle position in relation to lane markings. If vehicle wanders out of lane, driver is warned with sound, visual, and/or haptic signals.
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Study of lane departure warning systems
About 6 million crashes involving passenger vehicles in US each year
Assumptions about system
– alert always given when changing lanes unintentionally (no turn signal)
– estimated effect on crashes based on effectiveness of rumble strips
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About 5,637,000 crashes would not be affected
Rear-end crashes
Angle crashes
Crashes involving intentional lane changes or avoiding obstacles
Crashes due to vehicle component failure (e.g., tire blowout)
Crashes due to roadway defects (e.g., potholes)
Crashes due to speeding/reckless driving
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Of remaining 363,000 crashes, estimated reductions if all passenger vehicles had lane departure warning systems
estimated system effectiveness
estimated crash reductions
single-vehicle drift-off-road
crashes33% 56,000
drift-out-of-lane head-on
crashes22% 7,000
drift-out-of-lane sideswipe
crashes25% 40,000
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Reflector posts
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Effects of adaptive headlights are unknownEstimated effects based on reflector posts
Reflector posts help improve view of narrow and curved roads ahead
Studies indicate that reflector posts increase nighttime driving speeds
Some evidence indicates that reflector posts increase nighttime injury crashes
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Summary
Assessing potential benefits of crash avoidance technologies isn’t easy
Most crash databases lack sufficient detail to determine magnitude of problem addressed by each technology
Multiple technologies often introduced simultaneously
Changes in driver behavior difficult to predict
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When crash is inevitablePrepare safety systems for impact
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Mercedes Pre-Safe
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Crash sequence beginsDeploy airbags
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Automakers are accelerating introduction of side airbags with head
protection; one reason is that they know
consumers are paying attention to results
of IIHS testsRearseat cushion
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1997 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Percent of vehicle models in U.S. with side airbags as optional or standard equipmentBy type of side airbag, 1997-2007
head and chest
chest
head
year
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After the crashAutomatically notify emergency personnel of crash severity and location
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Automatic crash notification systems
BMW BMW Assist
GM OnStar
Lexus Lexus Link
Maybach Tele Aid
Mercedes-Benz Tele Aid
Rolls Royce Rolls Royce Assist
Volvo On Call
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