IEA 2013 Predictions

8/13/2019 IEA 2013 Predictions

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U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration | ShortTermEnergyOutlookFebruary2013 1

February2013

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

EIAexpectsthattheBrentcrudeoilspotprice,whichaveraged$112perbarrelin2012androseto$119perbarrelinearlyFebruary2013,willaverage$109perbarrelin2013and$101

perbarrelin2014.TheprojecteddiscountofWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilto

Brent,whichaveraged$18perbarrelin2012,averages$9perbarrelin2014asplannednew

pipelinecapacitylowersthecostofmovingmidcontinentcrudeoiltotheGulfCoastrefining

centers.

EIAexpectsthatfallingcrudepriceswillcontributetoadeclineinthenationalannualaverage

regular

gasoline

retail

price

from

$3.63

per

gallon

in

2012

to

$3.55

per

gallon

in

2013

and$3.39pergallonin2014,about11centspergallonand4centspergallonhigherthan

forecastinlastmonthsSTEO,respectively. Dieselfuelretailpricesaveraged$3.97pergallon

during2012andareforecasttofallto$3.92pergallonin2013andto$3.82pergallonin

2014.

EIAestimatesU.S.totalcrudeoilproductionaveraged6.4millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)in2012,anincreaseof0.8millionbbl/dfromthepreviousyear. Projecteddomesticcrudeoil

productioncontinuestoincreaseto7.3millionbbl/din2013and7.8millionbbl/din2014.

Total

U.S.

liquid

fuels

consumption

fell

from

20.8

million

bbl/d

in

2005

to

18.6

million

bbl/d

in

2012. EIAexpectstotalconsumptiontoriseslowlyoverthenexttwoyearstoanaverageof

18.7millionbbl/din2014,drivenbyincreasesindistillatefuelandliquefiedpetroleumgas

consumption,withmostlyflatgasolineandjetfuelconsumption.

NaturalgasworkinginventoriesreachedarecordhighlevelinearlyNovember2012,butendedJanuary2013atanestimated2.7trillioncubicfeet(Tcf),about0.2Tcfbelowthelevel

atthesametimethepreviousyear. EIAexpectstheHenryHubnaturalgasspotprice,which

averaged$2.75permillionBritishthermalunits(MMBtu)in2012,willaverage$3.53per

MMBtuin2013and$3.84perMMBtuin2014.

GlobalCrude

Oil

and

Liquid

Fuels

MarketfundamentalsandexpectationsstrengthenedinJanuary2013becauseofearlierthan

expectedcutbacksinSaudiArabianoilproductionandgreateroptimismabouteconomic

growth,particularlyinChina,whichhavesupportedhigheroilprices. EIAexpectsoilmarketsto

tighteninthefirstquarterof2013,butincreasingglobalsupplymorethanoffsetshigherglobal

consumptionthroughtherestoftheforecastperiod. Projectedworldsupplyincreasesby1.1


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millionbbl/din2013and2.0millionbbl/din2014,withmostofthegrowthcomingfrom

outsidetheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC). NorthAmericawill

accountformuchofthisgrowth. Projectedworldliquidfuelsconsumptiongrowsbyanannual

averageof1.0millionbbl/din2013and1.4millionbbl/din2014.Countriesoutsidethe

OrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)driveexpectedconsumption

growth.

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.Worldliquidfuelsconsumptiongrewby0.9

millionbbl/din2012toreach89.2millionbbl/d.EIAexpectsthatthisgrowthwillpickupin

2013andacceleratein2014becauseofamoderaterecoveryinglobaleconomicgrowth;

consumptionreaches90.2millionbbl/din2013and91.6millionbbl/din2014.NonOECDAsia

istheleadingregionalcontributortoexpectedglobalconsumptiongrowth.

OECDliquidfuelsconsumptiondeclinedby0.4millionbbl/din2012.EIAprojectsOECD

consumptiontofurtherdeclineby0.3millionbbl/din2013becauseofdecliningconsumptionin

Europe.OECD

consumption

flattens

in

2014

as

European

consumption

begins

to

flatten

in

responsetohighereconomicgrowth.

Chinaseconomyhasimprovedsincethethirdquarterof2012.askeymanufacturingindexes

andrefinerycrudeoilinputshaveincreased. Infrastructureinvestmentandconsumerspending

indicatesignsofstrongeconomicgrowthinChina,althoughnotatthehighratesseeninrecent

years. EIAalsoexpectsrefinerycrudeoilinputstobebolsteredin2013asoilproduct

inventoriesarerestockedandnewrefiningcapacitycomesonline. EIAestimatesthatliquid

fuelsconsumptioninChinaincreasedby380,000bbl/din2012,andwillincreaseby450,000

bbl/din2013andby470,000bbl/din2014.

NonOPECSupply. EIAprojectsnonOPECliquidsproductionwillincreaseby1.2millionbbl/din

2013andbyanother1.4millionbbl/din2014. NorthAmericaaccountsforabouttwothirdsof

theprojectedgrowthinnonOPECsupplyoverthenexttwoyearsbecauseofcontinued

productiongrowthfromU.S.tightoilformationsandCanadianoilsands. EIAhasslightly

lowereditsforecastforthegrowthinCanadianoilproductionin2013,dueinparttofurther

delaysininitialproductionfromtheKearloilsandsminingproject.

UnplannedproductionoutagesinnonOPECcountriespersistedatanaveragelevelof0.8

millionbbl/dinJanuary2013.Syria,Sudan,andSouthSudanarecurrentlythemostsignificant

sourcesofdisruptiontononOPECproduction. EIAdoesnotassumearesolutioninSyriawill

occurduringtheforecastperiod.

EIAhaspushedbacktheanticipatedrestartofSouthSudansproductionduetothepersistent

uncertaintysurroundingborderdemilitarization. TheAfricanUnionhassetanewandthird

deadlineforSudanandSouthSudantoresolveoutstandingissuesandavoidsanctions,although

theorganizationhasyettoimposeanyofthesanctionsthatithasthreatenedinthepast.The

countrieshavethreemonthsfromJanuary25,2013,toresolvependingissues,whichinclude


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demilitarizingthecontestedborder. EIAnowexpectsproductionattheUpperNilefieldsto

resumeinthethirdquarterofthisyear,withoutputrestartingatmaturefieldsinthefollowing

months. Ontheupside,twonewoilfieldsrecentlyboostedSudansoilproduction:alBarsaya

(6,000bbl/d)andHadida(10,000bbl/d). EIAexpectsbothfieldstodoubleoutputthisyear.

Combinedproductionofbothcountriesisprojectedtoaverage150,000bbl/din2013and

410,000bbl/d

in

2014.

InAustralia,CyclonesNarelleandPetashutinsomeproductionfromfieldsnearthenorthwest

coastinJanuary2013. InColombia,despitecontinuedattacksbyleftistrebelsonthenations

energyinfrastructure,notablytheCaoLimnoilpipeline,initialpressreportsclaimedthatthe

countrysoilproductionpassedthe1millionbbl/dmarkinJanuary. Anadditionalthreatto

SouthAmericanproductionisthepotentialforastrikeinFebruarybyworkersofPetrobras,the

Brazilianstateownedoilcompany.

OPECSupply. OPECmembercountries,particularlySaudiArabia,cutproductionheavilyin

fourthquarter

2012,

which

contributed

to

an

increase

in

crude

oil

prices

at

the

start

of

2013.

ProjectedOPECcrudeoilsupplydecreasesby0.3millionbbl/din2013fromtheyearbeforeand

thenrisesby0.3millionbbl/din2014.Mostofthedeclinein2013comesfromSaudiArabia,

whichrespondstononOPECgrowthandincreasingproductionfromsomeOPECmembers,such

asIraq,Nigeria,andAngola. InAngola,outputattheBPoperatedPSVM(Pluto,Saturno,

Vnus,andMarte)developmentrecentlycameonline. ProductionatPSVMisexpectedtobuild

thisyearandpeakat150,000bbl/din2014.

NewthreatstoenergyinfrastructureintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaemergedinJanuary

2013asamilitantgroupstormedtheAinAmenasnaturalgasfacilityineastAlgeriacausinga

fourday

standoff

that

resulted

in

both

facility

worker

and

militant

casualties.

Militants

later

attackedanaturalgaspipeline. Inresponse,Algeriaandinternationalenergyfirmsoperatingin

thecountryhaveincreasedsecurityatoilandgasfacilities,andnearbycountriessuchasTunisia

andLibyahavefollowedsuit. EIAsoilsupplyoutlookforAlgeriaremainsunchanged,asthere

hasbeennoindicationthatrecenteventshaveaffectedcurrentoiloperationsordeterred

futureinvestments.

Libyasenergysectorcontinuestobeplaguedbyaseriesofsmalldisruptions.Protestershave

expressedeconomicandpoliticalgrievancesbydisruptingoperationsatseveralkeyfacilities

overthelastmonth,includingtheRasLanufrefineryandtheZueitinaexportterminal,which

wasresponsible

for

an

average

of

approximately

130,000

bbl/d

of

Libyas

crude

oil

exports

in

December2012. EIAestimatesthatLibyascrudeoiloutputfelltoanaverageof1.3million

bbl/dinJanuary2013,whichwouldbethelowestmonthlyaveragesinceFebruary2012.

EIAestimatesthatOPECsurpluscapacity,whichisoverwhelminglyconcentratedinSaudiArabia,

wasaround2.7millionbbl/dinJanuary2013,anincreasefrompreviousmonths. Projected

OPECsurpluscapacityaverages2.9millionbbl/din2013and3.4millionbbl/din2014.These


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estimatesdonotincludeadditionalcapacitythatmaybeavailableinIranbutwhichiscurrently

offlinebecauseoftheeffectsofU.S.andEUsanctionsonIransabilitytosellitsoil.

OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAestimatesthatOECDcommercialoilinventoriesattheendof

2012totaled2.66billionbarrels,equivalentto57.2daysofsupply. ProjectedOECDoil

inventoriesfall

slightly

and

end

2013

at

2.63

billion

barrels

(56.4

days

of

supply).

Inventories

increaseslightlyto2.69billionbarrels(57.8daysofsupply)bytheendof2014.

CrudeOilPrices. EIAprojectstheBrentcrudeoilspotpricewillfallfromanaverageof$112per

barrelin2012toannualaveragesof$109perbarreland$101perbarrelin2013and2014,

respectively,reflectingtheincreasingsupplyofliquidfuelsfromnonOPECcountries. After

averaging$94perbarrelin2012,theprojectedWTIpriceaverages$93perbarrelin2013and

$92perbarrelin2014. By2014,severalpipelineprojectsfromthemidcontinenttotheGulf

Coastrefiningcentersareexpectedtocomeonline,reducingthecostoftransportingcrudeoil

torefiners,whichisreflectedinadropinthepricediscountofWTItoBrentfromanaverage

$18per

barrel

in

2012

to

$9

per

barrel

in

2014.

Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).WTIfuturesforMay2013deliveryduringthefivedayperiodendingFebruary7,2013,averaged$97.55per

barrel. Impliedvolatilityaveraged21percent,establishingthelowerandupperlimitsofthe95

percentconfidenceintervalforthemarket'sexpectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinMay

2013at$82perbarreland$117perbarrel,respectively. Lastyearatthistime,WTIforMay

2012deliveryaveraged$99perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged31percent.The

correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$75perbarrel

and$130perbarrel.

U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels

TheU.S.averageregulargasolineretailpriceincreasedfrom$3.25pergallononDecember17,

2012,whichwasthelowforallof2012,to$3.61pergallononFebruary11,2013,whichwasthe

highestnominalretailpriceeverforthistimeofyear. Anincreaseincrudeoilpricesexplains

muchoftheriseingasolineprices. BetweenmidDecemberandearlyFebruary,Brentcrudeoil

spotpricesincreasedfrom$109perbarrelto$119perbarrel,equivalenttoabout$0.24per

gallon. TherewerealsosomeunexpectedrefineryoutagesduringJanuary,bothintheUnited

StatesandinEurope,whichcontributedtohighergasolineprices. AlthoughEIAexpectscrude

oil

prices

to

come

off

their

current

peaks,

forecast

regular

gasoline

retail

prices

continue

to

rise

overthenextfewmonthstoapeakof$3.73pergalloninMay2013becauseoftheseasonal

increaseindemandandtheswitchfromwinter tomorecostlysummergradegasoline.

U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption. Totalliquidfuelsconsumptionhasfallenfromapeakof20.8

millionbbl/din2005to18.6millionbbl/din2012. Thedeclineinconsumptioncoincidedwith

risingcrudeoilpricesandfallingnaturalgasprices,whichmotivatedfuelconservation,

improvementsinfuelefficiencies,andfuelswitching. Totalliquidfuelsconsumptiongrows


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modestlyinthisforecast,increasingby50,000bbl/d(0.3percent)in2013andby80,000bbl/d

(0.4percent)in2014.Distillatefueloilconsumption,whichfellby140,000bbl/din2012,

increasesatanaverageannualrateof20,000bbl/din2013and60,000bbl/din2014. Distillate

fuelconsumptiongrowthisdrivenbyweatherintheNortheast,whichisforecasttobecolderin

comparisonwiththemildwintermonthsduring2012,andincreasesinindustrialoutput.

Ethaneand

propane

consumption

rises

because

of

continued

growth

in

industrial

use

as

well

as

theassumptionofclosetoaverageweathernextwinter. Plannedexpansionsatseveral

ethyleneplantsin2013leadtoincreasesinexpectedethaneandpropaneof50,000bbl/din

2013and30,000bbl/din2014. Incontrast,motorgasolineandjetfuelconsumptionremainflat

in2013and2014asincreasingtravelisoffsetbyfueleconomyimprovements.

U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports. EIAexpectsU.S.crudeoilproductiontocontinuetogrow

rapidlyoverthenexttwoyears,increasingfromanaverage6.4millionbbl/din2012toaverage

7.3millionbbl/din2013and7.8millionbbl/din2014. Centraltothisprojectedgrowthwillbe

continuingdevelopmentofonshorebasins. DrillingintightoilplaysintheWilliston,Western

Gulf,and

Permian

Basins

is

expected

to

account

for

the

bulk

of

forecast

production

growth

over

thenexttwoyears.

Alaskancrudeoilproductionreachedaseasonallowlastyearof400,000bbl/dinAugust2012,

whensummermaintenancetypicallydecreasesvolumes,butrecoveredto550,000bbl/din

October. EIAexpectsAlaskancrudeoilproductionwilldeclinefromanaverageof530,000bbl/d

in2012to500,000bbl/din2013and470,000bbl/din2014.

U.S.federalGulfofMexico(GOM)crudeoilproductionaveragedanestimated1.3millionbbl/d

in2012,about50,000bbl/dlowerthanduring2011. EIAexpectsGOMproductiontoincrease

toan

average

of

1.4

million

bbl/d

in

2013.

Much

of

that

increase

is

due

to

new

projects

that

startedproducingin2012,butcontinuedtoincreaseuntillate2012orearly2013,andsixnew

fieldstartups. ProjectedGOMproductioncontinuestoincreasein2014,averaging1.5million

bbl/d,asseveralrelativelyhighvolumedeepwaterprojectsareexpectedonstream.

Sincepeakingin2005at12.5millionbbl/d,U.S.liquidfuelnetimports,includingcrudeoil,have

beenfalling. Totalnetimportsfellto7.5millionbbl/din2012,andEIAexpectsimportsto

continuedecliningtoanaverageof6.1millionbbl/dby2014. Similarly,theshareoftotalU.S.

consumptionmetbyliquidfuelnetimportspeakedatmorethan60percentin2005andfellto

anaverageof40percentin2012. EIAexpectsthenetimportsharetofallto32percentin2014

becauseofcontinuedsubstantialincreasesindomesticcrudeoilproduction.

U.S.PetroleumProductPrices. U.S.regulargasolineretailpricesaveraged$3.63pergallonin

2012. U.S.regulargasolineretailpricesroseinJanuary2013becauseofthecombinationof

increasingcrudepricesandrefineryoutages. Despitetherecentrunupinprices,EIAexpects

fallingcrudepriceswillleadtoregulargasolineretailpricesaveraging$3.55pergallonin2013

and$3.39pergallonin2014.


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Onhighwaydieselfuelretailpricesaveraged$4.02pergalloninthefourthquarterof2012due

totightmarketconditionsandstrongdemandforexports. AlthoughU.S.weekendingstocksof

distillatefuelinJanuary2013reachedtheirhighestlevelsinninemonths,theyarestillatthe

bottomoftheirpreviousfiveyear(200812)rangeforthistimeofyear. Afteraveraging$3.97

pergallonin2012,EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailpriceswillaverage$3.92per

gallonin

2013

and

$3.82

per

gallon

in

2014.

NaturalGas

ColdweatherhelpeddrivenortheasternnaturalgaspricesupattheendofJanuary.TheU.S.

Northeastisinfrastructureconstrainedandthetightsupplydemandbalanceduringextreme

coldorheatoftenleadstopricespikes.PricesatTranscontinentalPipelinesZone6delivery

point,whichservesNewYorkCity,andattheAlgonquinCitygate,whichservesBoston,both

roseabove$30perMMBtuonJanuary24and25.

Coldweather

during

January

2013

also

affected

natural

gas

production

in

the

western

United

States.ProducersreportedwellheadfreezeoffsintheSanJuan,GreenRiver,Uinta,and

Piceancebasins,accordingtorecentBentekEnergyreports.Asnaturalgasproductioninthe

UnitedStatesshiftsfromoffshoretoinland,wellfreezeoffshavebecomeagreatersupply

disruptionrisk.

U.S.NaturalGasConsumption. EIAexpectsthatnaturalgasconsumptionwillaverage70.3

billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2013and70.0Bcf/din2014.Thismonthspredictionisa

significantupwardrevisionfromlastmonthsexpectationof69.7Bcf/dand69.4Bcf/din2013

and2014,respectively.Theupwardrevisionismostlytheresultofchangestohistorical

industrialsector

consumption

data,

which

were

revised

upwards

in

the

recent

release

of

the

EIA

NaturalGasAnnual.

Forecastsforclosertoaveragewintertemperaturesin2013and2014(comparedwiththe

recordwarmtemperaturesin2012)leadtoincreasesinnaturalgasusedforresidentialand

commercialspaceheating. DespitePunxsutawneyPhilsrecentforecastofanearlyspringthis

year,a15percentincreaseinU.S.populationweightedheatingdegreedaysfrom2012to2013

isstillprojected.

Theprojectedincreaseinnaturalgaspricescontributestoadeclineinnaturalgasusedfor

electric

power

generation

from

25.0

Bcf/d

in

2012

to

23.1

Bcf/d

in

2013

and

22.6

Bcf/d

in

2014.

Consumptionovertheforecastperiodislessthantherecordhigh2012levels,butremainshigh

byhistoricalstandardsandreflectsanongoingstructuralshifttowardusingmorenaturalgasfor

powergeneration.

U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports. EIAsmostrecentmonthlyproductiondataindicated

thattotalU.S.averagedailymarketedproductionreached70.4Bcf/dinNovember2012,0.4

Bcf/dabovethepreviousmonth,withupticksinthefederalGulfofMexico,Oklahoma,


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Wyoming,andthecategoryforotherstates,whichincludesPennsylvania. Productioninthe

MarcellusShaleareasofPennsylvaniaandWestVirginiaisexpectedtocontinuerising,as

recentlydrilledwellsbecomeoperational. Despiterelativelylownaturalgasprices,

Pennsylvaniadrillingcontinuesatastrongpaceasproducerstargetcombinationoilandgas

wells. Projectedmarketedproductionincreasesfrom69.2Bcf/din2012to70.0Bcf/din2013,

andremains

flat

in

2014.

Naturalgaspipelineimports,whichhavedeclinedoverthelast5years,areprojectedtoremain

neartheir2012levelovertheforecast. LNGimportsareexpectedtoremainatminimallevelsof

lessthan0.5Bcf/dinboth2013and2014. LNGimportsmainlyarriveattheElbaIslandterminal

inGeorgiaandtheEverettterminalinNewEngland,eithertofulfilllongtermcontract

obligationsortotakeadvantageoftemporarilyhighlocalpricesduetocoldsnapsand

disruptions. HigherpricesforLNGelsewhereintheworldhavemadetheUnitedStatesa

marketoflastresortforLNGsuppliers. NaturalgasexportstoMexicohavegrownsubstantially

since2010,andEIAexpectspipelineexportstocontinueincreasingthrough2014.

U.S.NaturalGasInventories. AsofFebruary1,2013,workinggasstockstotaled2,684Bcf,

whichis226Bcflessthanatthesametimein2012,but351Bcfgreaterthanthepreviousfive

year(200812)average,accordingtoEIAsWeeklyNaturalGasStorageReport.WhilewarmerthanaveragetemperaturesinDecemberlimitedwithdrawals,coldtemperaturesinJanuary

2013ledtoseveralbigstoragedrawdowns.EIAexpectsanendofMarchlevelofjustunder

2,000Bcf,whichislessthantheunusuallyhigh2,477BcfattheendofMarch2012,butstill

morethanthefiveyearaverageof1,726Bcf.

U.S.NaturalGasPrices. Naturalgasspotpricesaveraged$3.33perMMBtuattheHenryHubin

January2013,

relatively

unchanged

from

December,

despite

colder

weather

in

January.

EIA

expectstheHenryHubpricewillaverage$3.53perMMBtuin2013(comparedwith$2.75per

MMBtuin2012)and$3.84perMMBtuin2014.

NaturalgasfuturespricesforMay2013delivery(forthefivedayperiodendingFebruary7,

2013)averaged$3.46perMMBtu. Currentoptionsandfuturespricesimplythatmarket

participantsplacethelowerandupperboundsforthe95percentconfidenceintervalforMay

2013contractsat$2.61perMMBtuand$4.58perMMBtu,respectively. Atthistimeayearago,

thenaturalgasfuturescontractforMay2012averaged$2.81perMMBtuandthe

correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$1.83per

MMBtuand$4.31perMMBtu.

Coal

Becauseoflastyear'sdrought,stretchesoftheupperMississippiRiverhaveapproachedrecord

lows. TheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineerscontinuetodredgeandexcavaterocksalongtheMiddle

MississippiRiverbetweenSt.LouisandCairo,IL.,wheretheOhioRiverjoinstheMississippi.


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Rockremoval,coupledwithwaterreleasesfromRedRockLakeinIowaandCarlyleLakein

Illinois,allowedforcontinuedbargetrafficontheriverwithonlyminorinterruptionsanddelays.

U.S.CoalConsumption. EIAexpectscoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectortoincrease

overtheforecastperiod,aselectricitydemandandnaturalgaspricesrise,butstillremain

significantlylower

than

the

1,003

million

short

tons

(MMst)

averaged

during

2000

09.

EIA

expectsthatcoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorwillbe859MMstin2013and870

MMstin2014. EIAprojectsthatannualnonpowersectorcoalconsumptionwillaveragemore

than65MMstduringtheforecastperiod,similartotheamountofconsumptionestimatedin

2012.

U.S.CoalSupply. EIAestimatesthatcoalproductionfellby6.9percentin2012. Coal

productionisexpectedtodeclinebyanadditional1.2percentin2013becauseprimaryand

secondaryinventorydrawsandasmallincreaseincoalimportswillmeetgrowthin

consumption. Coalproductionisforecasttogrowby2.0percentin2014.

U.S.CoalTrade. EIAestimatescoalexportstotaledarecord124MMstin2012. EIAexpects

exportstototal108MMstin2013and112MMstin2014.Continuingeconomicweaknessin

Europe(whichtakesthemostU.S.coalexports),fallinginternationalcoalprices,andincreasing

productioninothercoalexportingcountriesaretheprimaryreasonsfortheexpecteddeclinein

coalexports.U.S.coalexportscouldbehigheriftherearesignificantsupplydisruptionsfrom

anyofthemajorcoalexportingcountries.Coalexportsaveraged54MMstduring200009.

U.S.CoalPrices. Deliveredcoalpricestotheelectricpowerindustryincreasedsteadilyoveran

11yearperiodthough2011,whenthedeliveredcoalpriceaveraged$2.39perMMBtu(a5

percentincrease

from

2010).

EIA

expects

changing

market

conditions,

including

weaker

domesticdemandforcoalandhighercoalinventories,willslowincreasesincoalpricesand

contributetotheshutinofhighercostproduction. EIAestimatesthatthedeliveredcoalprice

averaged$2.40perMMBtuin2012,andforecastsaverageddeliveredpricesof$2.41per

MMBtuin2013and$2.45in2014.

Electricity

NaturalgassupplyconstraintsinNewEnglandwereexacerbatedbyalateJanuarycoldsnap,

whichraisedwholesalepowerpricesintheNewYorkIndependentSystemOperator(ISO)and

ISO

New

England

(the

regional

transmission

organizations

that

serve

the

northeastern

United

States).Whileshorttermwholesalepowerpricespikesrarelyhavevisibleeffectsonretail

electricityrates,wholesalepriceswerelikelyhighenoughtomakeiteconomicallyattractiveto

usepetroleumfiredpowergenerationforafewdays.

U.S.ElectricityConsumption. U.S.residentialelectricitysalesduringDecember2012and

January2013areestimatedtohaveaveraged1.3percentmorethanthesamemonthsayear

ago. EIAisassumingthattemperaturesduringtheupcomingsummerwillbemilderthanlast


9/46


summersrecordbreakingheat. U.S.coolingdegreedaysduringJune,July,andAugust2013are

expectedtototalabout13percentlowerthanlastsummerandabout6percentlowerthanthe

prior10yearaverage. EIAprojectsU.S.residentialsalesofelectricityduringtheupcoming

summerwillaverage6percentbelowthesummerof2012.Overall,U.S.residentialelectricity

salesdeclineby0.4percentduring2013butthengrowby0.4percentin2014.

U.S.ElectricityGeneration. EIAexpectstotalgenerationofelectricityacrossallsectorswill

growby0.5percentin2013andby0.8percentin2014.Generationfromrenewableenergy

sourcesotherthanhydropowerexhibitedthehighestrateofgrowthamongallgeneration

sourcesinrecentyears,andsimilargrowthisexpectedtocontinueduringthenexttwoyears.

EIAestimatesthattheelectricpowersectoraddedover12gigawattsofnewwindpower

capacityduring2012,about40percentofwhichcameonlineinDecemberbeforethe

scheduledendofyeardeadline,whichhasbeenextended,forwindcapacitytobeoperational

inordertobeeligiblefortheproductiontaxcredit.Thisadditionalcapacitycontributestoan

expected12percentincreaseingenerationfromrenewablesourcesotherthanhydropower

during2013.

Nonhydro

renewable

energy

accounts

for

6.0

percent

of

total

generation

in

2013

and6.4percentin2014,comparedwith5.4percentin2012.

Becauseoftheincreasingcostofnaturalgasrelativetocoal,theshareofelectricitygenerated

bynaturalgasisexpectedtofallfrom30.3percentin2012to27.6percentin2014.EIAexpects

theshareofgenerationfueledbycoaltorisefrom37.4percentin2012to39.1percentin2014.

U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices. Risingcostsofinfrastructureupgradescontinuetodriveincreases

inresidentialelectricityrates,althoughlowerfuelpricesinrecentyearshavekeptgrowthin

retailratesrelativelymodest. Afteranincreaseof1.3percentduring2012,EIAexpectsretail

residentialelectricity

prices

will

grow

by

1.7

percent

in

2013

and

by

2.0

percent

in

2014.

RenewablesandCarbonDioxideEmissions

U.S.ElectricityGenerationRenewables. EIAestimatesthattotalrenewableenergy

consumptiondeclinedby2.0percentin2012,asthedecreaseinhydropowermorethanoffset

thegrowthintheconsumptionofotherrenewableenergyforms. Thisdropwastheresultof

hydropowerproductionfallingby13percentaswatersupplyinthePacificNorthwestfellfrom

theunusuallyhighlevelsseenin2011. EIAprojectsrenewableenergyconsumptiontoincrease

by2.6percentin2013.Whilehydropowerdeclinesby2.7percent,nonhydropowerrenewables

grow

by

an

average

of

5.2

percent.

In

2014,

the

growth

in

total

renewables

is

projected

to

continueatarateof4.1percent,asa1.3percentincreaseinhydropoweriscombinedwitha

5.3percentincreaseinnonhydropowerrenewables.

EIAcurrentlyestimatesthatwindcapacitywillincreaseby7percentin2013andby10percent

in2014. However,electricitygenerationfromwindisprojectedtoincreaseby15percentin

2013,ascapacitythatcameonlineattheendof2012isavailablefortheentireyearin2013.

Windpoweredgenerationisprojectedtogrowby8percentin2014.


10/46


Forecastsolarenergycontinuesrobustgrowth,althoughthetotalamountremainsasmallshare

oftotalU.S.generation. Projectedconsumptiongrowsby33percentin2012,29percentin

2013,and30percentin2014. SolarenergyisnotdirectlyaffectedbythechangesinthePTC,

buttheeffectcouldbeindirectasmorewindenergyisavailabletomeetstaterenewable

portfoliostandards.

U.S.LiquidBiofuels. TheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencypublishedanoticeofproposed

rulemakingonJanuary31,2013,forthe2013renewablefuelvolumeobligationsunderthe

RenewableFuelStandardprogram(RFS2)thatlowersthe2013mandateforcellulosicbiofuels

fromthestatutorytargetof1.0billiongallonsto14milliongallons. However,thestatutory

targetsforadvancedbiofuelandtotalbiofuelsin2013,2.75billiongallonsand16.55billion

gallons,respectively(allvolumesareethanolequivalent)weremaintainedbytheproposedrule.

Thisforecastassumesthatthe2014renewablefuelvolumeobligationsforbiodieseland

advancedbiofuelareidenticaltothosein2013.

Becauseofdroughtconditions,fuelethanolproductionaveraged864,000bbl/d(13.3billion

gallons)in2012,itslowestaveragesince2009. EIAexpectsethanolproductiontoremainnear

currentlevelsofabout800,000bbl/dthroughmid2013beforerecoveringtopredrought

productionlevels,averaging852,000bbl/d(13.1billiongallons)fortheyear. Ethanol

productionisexpectedtorisein2014,averaging916,000bbl/d(14.0billiongallons),as

previouslyidledcapacitycomesbackonline. Despitetheforecastincreaseinethanol

production,EIAexpectsthedrawdownofbankedrenewableidentificationnumbers,asthe

averageethanolshareofthegasolinepoolincreasesonlymodestlybetween2012and2014.

The$1

per

gallon

biodiesel

excise

tax

credit

was

reinstated

retroactively

beginning

January

1,

2012,throughtheendof2013aspartoftheyearendfiscalpackage. Biodieselproductionthat

averaged63,000bbl/d(1.0billiongallons)in2012isforecasttoincreaseto84,000bbl/d(1.3

billiongallons)inboth2013and2014.

U.S.EnergyRelatedCarbonDioxideEmissions. EIAestimatesthatcarbondioxideemissions

fromfossilfuelsdeclinedby3.7percentin2012,andprojectsincreasesof1.4percentin2013

and0.6percentin2014. Theincreaseinemissionsovertheforecastprimarilyreflectsthe

projectedincreaseincoaluseforelectricitygeneration.

U.S.

Economic

Assumptions

TheeconomicprojectionsintheSTEOarederivedfromtheIHS/GlobalInsight(GI)

macroeconomicmodelwithEIAsenergypriceforecastsasmodelinputs. TheGImodelusedin

thisSTEOincorporatesrecenttaxchangesduetotheAmericanTaxpayerReliefActof2012. Itis

alsoassumedthattherewillbeanagreementreachedtoincreasetheamountofdebtthatcan

beissuedbytheU.S.Treasury(thedebtceiling)inthenearterm.


11/46


CurrentTrends. Despiteaslight(0.1percentonanannualizedbasis)fallinU.S.realgross

domesticproduct(GDP)inthefourthquarterof2012comparedwiththethirdquarter,most

recenteconomicindicatorsreflectgrowth. Nonfarmpayrollemploymentgrewby157,000in

January,accordingtotheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS). BLSalsorevisedupwardemployment

growthinbothNovemberandDecemberof2012,althoughtheunemploymentrateincreased

slightlyin

January

to

7.9

percent.

The

Institute

for

Supply

Management

(ISM)

manufacturing

indexroseinJanuaryto53.1,indicatingexpansioninthemanufacturingsector(avalueabove

50indicatesexpansion),andbothindustrialproductionandcapacityutilizationrosein

DecemberaccordingtotheFederalReserve. However,theFederalReserveBankof

PhiladelphiasbusinessoutlooksurveyandtheFederalReserveBankofKansasCitys

manufacturingsurveybothshowedmodestregionalcontractionsinmanufacturingactivity

duringJanuary.

U.S.Production. TheSTEOassumes1.7percentU.S.realGDPgrowthin2013,risingto2.6

percentin2014. Relativelyslowergrowthinthebeginningof2013followstheexpirationofthe

payrolltax

cut.

After

mid

2013,

real

GDP

year

over

year

growth

gradually

increases

until

it

reaches3.0percentinthefinalquarterof2014. Residentialandnonresidentialinvestment,as

wellasexports,areimportantcomponentsofthisgrowth.

TotalindustrialproductiongrowsatasimilarratetorealGDPin2013and2014,at1.7percent

and3.0percent,respectively. Industrialproductiongrowthinthemanufacturingsectoris

slowerthantotalproductionin2013at1.5percent,butacceleratesto3.4percentin2014.

BothoftheseindexesmirrortheriseindemandduetohighergrowthinrealGDP.

U.S.IncomeandExpenditures. RealconsumptionexpendituresgrowinlinewithrealGDPin

2013,at

1.7

percent,

but

growth

in

2014

of

2.4

percent

is

slightly

below

GDP

growth

in

that

year. Theexpirationofthepayrolltaxcutalsohasaneffect,asrealdisposableincomegrows

only0.6percentin2013. Privatefixedinvestmentjumpsto8.8percentgrowthin2014from5.5

percentthisyear,highlightingitsimportanceforoveralleconomicexpansion,andexportgrowth

acceleratesaswell.Governmentexpendituresfallmorethan1percentinbothyears.

U.S.Employment,Housing,andPrices. Theunemploymentrateintheforecastgraduallyfalls

fromanaverageof7.7percentin2013to7.4percentin2014.Thisisaccompaniedbynonfarm

employmentgrowthaveraging1.0percentin2013and1.6percentin2014. Consistentwithan

improvinghousingsector,housingstartsshowrelativelyfastgrowth,expandingby23.0percent

and32.5percentin2013and2014,respectively. Bothconsumerandproducerpricescontinue

toincreaseatamoderatepaceoflessthan2percentperyear.


12/46

U.S. Energy Information AdministrationIndependent Statistics & Analysis

ShortShort--Term Energy OutlookTerm Energy Outlook

Chart Gallery for February 2013Chart Gallery for February 2013

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Pri cedollars per barrel

Historical spot priceSTEO price forecastNYMEX futures price95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval

0

20

Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending

February 7, 2013. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options

Forecast

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Pricesdollars per gallon

Price differenceRetail regular gasoline

Crude oil

0.00

0.50

Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014


Crude oil price is composite refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include state and federal taxes.


13/46

Forecast

1.001.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Pricesdollars per gallon

Price difference

Retail diesel fuel

Crude oil

0.00

0.50

.



Crude oil price is composite refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include state and federal taxes.

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Henry Hub Natural Gas Pricedollars per million btu

Historical spot price

STEO forecast price

NYMEX futures price

95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval

95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval

0

1

Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014


Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days endingFebruary 7, 2013. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options

Forecast

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

U.S. Natural Gas Pricesdollars per thousand cubic feet

Residential price

Henry Hub spot price

0

2

4




14/46

Forecast

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

World Liquid Fuels Consumptionmillion barrels per day (mmbd)

Change in U.S. consumption (right axis)

Change in China consumption (right axis)

Change in other consumption (right axis)

Total world consumption (left axis)

annual change (mmbd)

-2

-1

0

74

76

78

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


-0 6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growthmillion barrels per day

Forecast

-0.8

.

2012 2013 2014

OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Other


* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

-0 6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growthmillion barrels per day

Forecast

-0.9

2012 2013 2014

OPEC countries North America Russia and Caspian Sea

Latin America North Sea Other Non-OPEC



15/46

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2014

2013

2012

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liqui d Fuels Production Growthmillion barrels per day

- .

UnitedStates

Canada

China

Brazil

Colombia

Russia

Vietnam

Kazakhstan

Malaysia

OtherNorthSea

Australia

Oman

Gabon

India

Egypt

Sudan

Azerbaijan

UnitedKingdom

Syria

Norway

Mexico


Forecast

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2

3

4

5

6

7

8World oil consumption (left axis)

Non-OPEC production (left axis)

Change in WTI price (right axis)

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production Growthmillion barrels per day dollars per barrel

-100

-80

-

2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1

-1

0

1


2

3

4

5

6

OPEC surplus crude oil produc tion capacitymillion barrels per day

Forecast

0

1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Note: Shaded area represents 2002-2012 average (2.5 million barrels per day)


16/46

Forecast

50

55

60

65

70

OECD Commercial Crude Oil Stocksdays of supply

40

Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014


Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed days ofsupply from Jan. 2008 - Dec. 2012.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

7

8

9

10

11

12

U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Produc tionmillion barrels per day (mmbd) annual change (mmbd)

-0.2

2011 2012 2013 2014

6

Crude oil (right axis) Natural gas liquids (right axis)

Fuel ethanol (right axis) Biodiesel (right axis)

Total production (left axis) Production forecast (left axis)


Forecast

300

325

350

375

400

425

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Stocksmillion barrels

250



Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum andmaximum from Jan. 2008 - Dec. 2012.


17/46

-0.15

0.00

0.15

0.30

0.45

0.60

0.75

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumptionmillion barrels per day (mmbd) annual change (mmbd)

-0.30

2011 2012 2013 2014

16.5

Motor gasoline (right axis) Jet fuel (right axis)

Distillate fuel (right axis) Other fuels (right axis)

Total consumption (lef t ax is) Consumption forecast (lef t axis)


Forecast

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

U.S. Gasoli ne and Distill ate Inventoriesmillion barrels

Total motor gasoline inventory

60

80



Note: Colored bands around storage levels represent the range between the minimum and

maximum from Jan. 2008 - Dec. 2012.

Total distillate uel inventory

-

-1

0

1

2

3

4

56

7

20

30

40

50

60

70

8090

100

U.S. Natural Gas Consumpti onbillion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) annual change (bcf/d)

-3

2011 2012 2013 2014

0

Electric power (right axis) Residential and comm. (right axis)Industrial (right axis) Other (right axis)Total consum ption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis)



18/46


19/46

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

20

40

60

80

100

120

U.S. Coal Productionmillion short tons (mmst) annual change (mmst)

-60

2011 2012 2013 2014

0

W estern region (right axis) Appalachian region (right axis)Interior region (right axis) Total production (left axis)Production forecast (left axis)


Forecast

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

U.S. Electric Power Coal Stocksmillion short tons

0

25

Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 Jan 2013


Note: Colored band around stock levels represents the range between the minimumand maximum from Jan. 2005 - Dec. 2012.

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

U.S. Electricity Consumptionmillion kilowatthours per day (kwh/d) annual change (million kwh/d)

-

2011 2012 2013 2014

Residential (right axis) Comm. and trans. (right axis)

Industrial (right axis) Direct use (right axis)

Total consumption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis)



20/46

3.2% 2.6%

5.4%

10.3%

2.4%

5.7%

2.2%

0.3%1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 2.0%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

U.S. Residential Electricity Pricecents per kilowatthour

-1.6% -4%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

Annual growth (right axis) Residential electricity price Price forecast


18.8% 20.1% 21.6% 21.4% 23.3% 23.9%24.7% 30.3% 28.2% 27.6%

49.6% 49.0% 48.5% 48.2% 44.4%44.8% 42.3% 37.4% 39.1% 39.1%

Forecast

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

U.S. Electrici ty Generation by Fuel, All Sectorsthousand megawatthours per day

Coal

Natural gas

Petroleum

Nuclear

Hydropower

Renewables

Other sources

0

2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.

Forecast

2

3

4

5

6

7

89

10

U.S. Renewable Energy Supplyquadrillion British thermal units (Btu)

Solar

Geothermal

Other biomass

Wind power

Liquid biofuels

Wood biomass

H dro ower

0

1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Note: Hydropower excludes pumped storage generation. Liquid biofuels include ethanol and biodiesel. Otherbiomass includes municipal waste from biogenic s ources, landfill gas, and other non-wood waste.


21/46

Forecast

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

U.S. Annual Energy Expendituresshare of gross domestic product

0%

2%

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014


Forecast

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Diox ide Emissi onsannual growth

-12%

-9%

2011 2012 2013 2014

All fossil fuels Coal Petroleum Natural gas


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree Dayspopulation-weighted

20112012

2013

2014

2003-2012 Avg

0

50

100

April May June July August September


Note: Degree days calculated by applying contemporaneous population weights to state-level data from theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.


22/46

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

U.S. Winter Heating Degree Dayspopulation-weighted

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2003-2012 Avg

0

100

200

October November December January February March


Note: Degree days calculated by applying contemporaneous population weights to state-level data from theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.

U.S. Census Regions and Divisi ons


Forecast

0

1

2

3

4

5

84

86

88

90

92

94

World Liqui d Fuels Supply and Demand Balancemillion barrels per day

Implied stock change and balance (right axis)World supply (left axis)

World demand (left axis)

-3

-2

-1

78

80

82

2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1



23/46

Forecast

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

85

90

95

100

105

U.S. Total Industr ial Product ion Indexindex (2007 = 100)

Change from prior year (right axis)

Industrial production index (left axis)

change

-20%

-10%

0%

70

75

80



2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

9,800

10,000

10,200

10,400

10,600

10,800

11,000

U.S. Disposable Incomebillion 2005 dollars, seasonally adjusted

Change from prior year (right axis)

Real disposable income (left axis)

change

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

9,000

9,200

9,400

9,600




24/46

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 Avg. 06-11 11-12 12-13 % Change

Natural Gas

Northeast Consumption (mcf**) 76.5 77.0 82.5 77.8 82.7 79.3 68.3 76.7 12.4 Price ($/mcf) 14.74 15.17 15.82 13.31 12.65 14.33 12.22 11.96 -2.2 Expenditures ($) 1,128 1,168 1,306 1,035 1,047 1,137 835 917 9.9 Midwest

Consumption (mcf) 79.8 83.3 86.0 83.8 85.1 83.6 69.1 80.0 15.9

Price ($/mcf) 11.06 11.39 11.46 9.43 9.21 10.51 8.96 8.56 -4.4 Expenditures ($) 882 949 986 790 784 878 619 685 10.8 South

Consumption (mcf) 51.6 50.4 53.4 60.3 55.2 54.2 45.1 50.0 10.9

Price ($/mcf) 13.57 14.16 14.05 11.51 11.01 12.79 11.49 11.19 -2.5

Expenditures ($) 700 714 751 694 608 694 518 560 8.1

West

Consumption (mcf) 50.8 52.9 50.5 52.2 51.7 51.6 51.7 51.1 -1.1 Price ($/mcf) 11.20 11.31 10.86 9.91 9.67 10.59 9.38 9.13 -2.7

Expenditures ($) 569 598 549 518 500 547 485 467 -3.7

U.S. AverageConsumption (mcf) 65.4 67.0 69.0 69.2 69.5 68.0 59.4 65.5 10.3

Price ($/mcf) 12.35 12.71 12.86 10.83 10.44 11.83 10.25 9.93 -3.1

Expenditures ($) 807 852 887 749 726 804 609 651 6.9

Heating Oil

U.S. AverageConsumption (gallons) 623.4 633.2 678.0 642.6 679.8 651.4 560.0 630.9 12.7

Price ($/gallon) 2.42 3.33 2.65 2.85 3.38 2.93 3.73 3.90 4.5 Expenditures ($) 1,511 2,106 1,800 1,830 2,300 1,909 2,089 2,459 17.7

Electricity Northeast

Consumption (kwh***) 8,681 8,723 9,113 8,762 9,117 8,879 8,083 8,683 7.4 Price ($/kwh) 0.139 0.144 0.151 0.152 0.154 0.148 0.154 0.151 -2.5 Expenditures ($) 1,206 1,258 1,379 1,328 1,405 1,315 1,248 1,308 4.8

Midwest

Consumption (kwh) 10,155 10,462 10,642 10,510 10,587 10,471 9,327 10,195 9.3 Price ($/kwh) 0.085 0.089 0.098 0.099 0.105 0.095 0.110 0.109 -1.1 Expenditures ($) 866 934 1,038 1,036 1,107 996 1,030 1,114 8.2 South

Consumption (kwh) 8,392 8,304 8,636 9,155 8,785 8,654 7,834 8,299 5.9

Price ($/kwh) 0.096 0.098 0.109 0.103 0.104 0.102 0.107 0.106 -0.4 Expenditures ($) 807 817 939 942 913 884 836 882 5.5 West

Consumption (kwh) 7,641 7,825 7,617 7,757 7,724 7,713 7,733 7,693 -0.5 Price ($/kwh) 0.102 0.104 0.106 0.111 0.112 0.107 0.115 0.118 2.4

Expenditures ($) 782 811 811 859 866 826 890 906 1.9

U.S. AverageConsumption (kwh) 8,135 8,172 8,350 8,604 8,461 8,344 7,728 8,122 5.1

Price ($/kwh) 0.101 0.104 0.112 0.110 0.113 0.108 0.116 0.116 -0.6 Expenditures ($) 822 850 936 946 953 901 898 938 4.5

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2013

Fuel / Region

Winter of Forecast


25/46

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 Avg. 06-11 11-12 12-13 % Change


Fuel / Region

Winter of Forecast

Propane

Northeast Consumption (gallons) 786.2 793.8 846.7 796.6 847.5 814.1 706.0 787.6 11.6 Price ($/gallon) 2.35 2.93 2.84 2.98 3.23 2.87 3.38 3.00 -11.2 Expenditures ($) 1,849 2,324 2,406 2,376 2,738 2,338 2,386 2,363 -1.0 Midwest

Consumption (gallons) 803.5 842.8 864.4 848.6 857.7 843.4 699.4 808.6 15.6

Price ($/gallon) 1.79 2.23 2.08 1.97 2.12 2.04 2.20 1.76 -20.0 Expenditures ($) 1,440 1,883 1,795 1,674 1,817 1,722 1,539 1,423 -7.5

Number of households by primary space heating fuel (thousands)

Northeast

Natural gas 10,612 10,774 10,958 11,069 11,317 10,946 11,523 11,685 1.4 Heating oil 6,690 6,557 6,319 6,058 5,960 6,317 5,880 5,748 -2.2 Propane 731 708 717 738 759 731 778 798 2.6 Electricity 2,525 2,565 2,580 2,663 2,835 2,634 2,912 2,967 1.9 Wood 375 416 477 504 522 459 555 598 7.7

Midwest

Natural gas 18,428 18,469 18,404 18,176 18,349 18,365 18,447 18,459 0.1 Heating oil 591 537 494 454 426 501 409 383 -6.2

Propane 2,256 2,193 2,145 2,113 2,118 2,165 2,096 2,060 -1.7 Electricity 4,343 4,494 4,599 4,748 5,031 4,643 5,233 5,349 2.2 Wood 502 531 587 621 632 575 640 662 3.4

South Natural gas 14,082 14,140 14,046 13,828 13,777 13,975 13,777 13,811 0.2 Heating oil 1,124 1,057 962 913 857 983 795 751 -5.6 Propane 2,540 2,370 2,234 2,180 2,120 2,289 2,016 1,921 -4.7 Electricity 24,087 24,800 25,417 25,973 26,771 25,410 27,454 28,160 2.6

Wood 544 561 597 590 603 579 620 630 1.7

West Natural gas 15,071 15,169 15,122 15,044 15,300 15,141 15,409 15,528 0.8 Heating oil 341 318 296 291 284 306 273 266 -2.7 Propane 1,003 948 942 946 929 954 921 921 0.0 Electricity 7,492 7,694 7,817 7,933 8,282 7,843 8,632 8,896 3.1

Wood 682 683 707 726 739 708 749 752 0.3

U.S. Totals Natural gas 58,192 58,552 58,529 58,118 58,743 58,427 59,156 59,483 0.6 Heating oil 8,746 8,469 8,071 7,716 7,528 8,106 7,356 7,148 -2.8 Propane 6,530 6,218 6,037 5,978 5,926 6,138 5,811 5,700 -1.9

Electricity 38,447 39,551 40,413 41,317 42,919 40,530 44,231 45,372 2.6

Wood 2,104 2,191 2,368 2,441 2,496 2,320 2,564 2,642 3.0

Heating degree-days

Northeast 4,805 4,850 5,252 4,889 5,257 5,011 4,193 4,813 14.8 Midwest 5,336 5,624 5,829 5,662 5,760 5,642 4,495 5,361 19.3

South 2,378 2,313 2,523 2,902 2,629 2,549 1,991 2,302 15.6

West 2,956 3,122 2,938 3,061 3,031 3,022 3,036 2,992 -1.4 U.S. Average 3,605 3,685 3,831 3,894 3,868 3,777 3,165 3,563 12.6

*** kilowatthour

* Prices include taxes

Note: Winter covers the period October 1 through March 31. Fuel consumption per household is based only on households that use that fuel as

the primary space-heating fuel. Included in fuel consumption is consumption for water heating, appliances, and lighting (electricity). Perhousehold consumption based on an average of EIA 2001 and 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Surveys corrected for actual and

projected heating degree-days.

** thousand cubic feet


26/46

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2012 2013 2014

Energy Supply

Crude Oil Production (a)

million barrels per day) .............................. 6.21 6.27 6.38 6.89 7.05 7.18 7.27 7.50 7.65 7.74 7.82 8.08 6.44 7.25 7.82

Dry Natural Gas Production

billion cubic feet per day) ........................... 65.29 65.38 65.58 66.50 66.33 66.30 66.32 66.35 66.34 66.40 66.01 66.34 65.69 66.33 66.27

Coal Production

million short tons) ....................................... 266 241 259 254 245 243 259 263 254 247 262 265 1,020 1,009 1,028

Energy Consumption

iquid Fuels

million barrels per day) .............................. 18.41 18.65 18.67 18.66 18.52 18.66 18.70 18.72 18.70 18.70 18.74 18.76 18.60 18.65 18.72

Natural Gas

billion cubic feet per day) ........................... 81.03 62.57 63.81 70.60 86.59 59.94 61.85 73.12 86.40 59.22 61.49 73.08 69.49 70.31 69.99

Coal (b)

million short tons) ....................................... 208 202 255 226 227 210 252 233 235 215 253 234 890 922 938

Electricity

billion kilowatt hours per day) .................... 10.03 10.14 11.81 9.82 10.30 10.02 11.60 9.96 10.49 10.07 11.66 10.03 10.45 10.47 10.56

Renewables (c)

quadrillion Btu) ........................................... 2.06 2.18 1.95 1.98 2.04 2.28 2.02 2.04 2.16 2.35 2.10 2.11 8.17 8.38 8.72

otal Energy Consumption (d)

quadrillion Btu) ........................................... 24.49 22.78 24.06 24.07 25.14 22.85 23.92 24.42 25.50 23.01 24.04 24.55 95.40 96.35 97.10

Energy Prices

Crude Oil (e)

dollars per barrel) ....................................... 107.62 101.45 97.38 96.26 100.63 96.72 96.06 96.75 97.40 96.75 96.75 96.75 100.58 97.50 96.91

Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot

dollars per million Btu) ............................... 2.45 2.28 2.88 3.40 3.39 3.43 3.58 3.73 3.85 3.76 3.78 3.97 2.75 3.53 3.84

Coal

dollars per million Btu) ............................... 2.41 2.42 2.41 2.38 2.43 2.41 2.41 2.40 2.46 2.45 2.45 2.43 2.40 2.41 2.45

Macroeconomic

Real Gross Domestic Product

billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ......... 13,506 13,549 13,653 13,648 13,720 13,793 13,857 13,927 14,010 14,118 14,233 14,347 13,589 13,824 14,177

Percent change from prior year ................... 2.4 2.1 2.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.7 2.6

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

ndex, 2005=100) ........................................ 114.6 115.1 115.8 116.0 116.6 117.1 117.6 118.0 118.5 118.9 119.4 119.8 115.4 117.3 119.2


Real Disposable Personal Income

billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ......... 10,214 10,271 10,284 10,455 10,274 10,331 10,386 10,463 10,577 10,660 10,737 10,812 10,306 10,364 10,697


Manufacturing Production Index

ndex, 2007=100) ........................................ 95.2 95.5 95.4 95.5 95.7 96.5 97.4 98.0 98.7 99.6 100.7 101.8 95.4 96.9 100.2


Weather

U.S. Heating Degree-Days .......................... 1,747 412 81 1,472 2,090 504 95 1,584 2,176 513 94 1,580 3,712 4,272 4,364

U.S. Cooling Degree-Days .......................... 59 451 939 90 42 386 810 90 40 385 812 90 1,540 1,328 1,327

EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.

d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).

c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.

= no data availablePrices are not adjusted for inflation.

a) Includes lease condensate.

b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary


2012 2013 2014 Year

Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).

Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226;Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.

Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2;Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208;Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380;Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.


27/46


Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)

West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ..................... ...... 102.88 93.42 92.24 87.96 95.92 92.00 91.33 92.00 92.67 92.00 92.00 92.00 94.12 92.81 9

Brent Spot Average .................... ..................... ................. 118.49 108.42 109.61 110.07 114.65 110.33 107.33 105.00 103.00 101.00 100.00 99.00 111.65 109.33 1

Imported Average .................. ..................... .................... .. 108.13 101.19 97.20 97.17 100.88 96.97 96.31 97.00 97.64 97.00 97.00 97.00 100.98 97.79 9

Refiner Average Acquisition Cost .................................... 107.62 101.45 97.38 96.26 100.63 96.72 96.06 96.75 97.40 96.75 96.75 96.75 100.58 97.50 9

iquid Fuels (cents per gallon)

Refiner Prices for Resale

Gasoline .................. ..................... .................... ............. 297 299 302 277 291 301 288 270 269 279 271 256 294 288

Diesel Fuel .................... .................... ..................... ....... 317 301 313 315 318 311 299 297 295 296 295 290 311 306

Heating Oil .................. .................... ..................... ......... 312 292 296 306 311 302 288 290 288 280 280 279 303 300

Refiner Prices to End Users

Jet Fuel ................... ..................... .................... ............. 321 304 308 307 317 313 300 298 297 298 296 291 310 307 No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) .................... ..................... ... 270 266 251 247 252 243 241 243 243 239 240 241 259 245

Retail Prices Including Taxes

Gasoline Regular Grade (b) .................... .................... .. 361 372 367 350 350 370 359 339 337 349 343 326 363 355

Gasoline All Grades (b) .................. ..................... .......... 367 378 373 357 357 376 365 345 343 355 349 332 369 361

On-highway Diesel Fuel ................... ..................... ........ 397 395 394 402 400 400 385 384 382 385 383 379 397 392

Heating Oil .................. .................... ..................... ......... 379 370 366 385 393 385 369 372 373 361 358 361 376 382

Natural Gas

Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) .......... 2.52 2.35 2.97 3.50 3.49 3.53 3.69 3.84 3.97 3.88 3.89 4.09 2.83 3.64

Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) ................... ...... 2.45 2.28 2.88 3.40 3.39 3.43 3.58 3.73 3.85 3.76 3.78 3.97 2.75 3.53

End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

Industrial Sector ............................................................ 4.20 3.16 3.63 4.40 4.83 4.43 4.67 5.08 5.34 4.75 4.87 5.32 3.88 4.76

Commercial Sector .................... ..................... .............. 8.16 8.04 8.34 8.18 8.64 8.92 9.59 9.47 9.41 9.47 10.04 9.88 8.17 9.04

Residential Sector ..................... .................... ................ 9.77 12.07 15.35 10.00 9.80 12.06 16.35 11.43 10.64 12.78 16.99 12.03 10.62 11.12

lectricity

Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

Coal .................... ..................... .................... .................. 2.41 2.42 2.41 2.38 2.43 2.41 2.41 2.40 2.46 2.45 2.45 2.43 2.40 2.41

Natural Gas ................... ..................... .................... ...... 3.31 2.90 3.43 4.21 4.33 4.14 4.24 4.67 4.73 4.45 4.43 4.89 3.42 4.33

Residual Fuel Oil (c) .................. ..................... ............... 21.14 22.46 19.93 19.30 17.81 17.20 16.82 16.97 17.26 17.15 16.99 17.09 20.70 17.19

Distillate Fuel Oil .................. .................... ..................... 23.70 23.01 22.96 24.11 24.34 23.98 23.22 23.53 23.44 23.28 23.25 23.42 23.43 23.77 2

End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

Industrial Sector .................. ..................... ..................... 6.47 6.63 7.09 6.53 6.52 6.74 7.21 6.69 6.58 6.90 7.45 6.74 6.69 6.80

Commercial Sector .................... ..................... .............. 9.89 10.10 10.46 9.93 9.81 10.23 10.67 10.05 10.01 10.41 10.84 10.19 10.11 10.21

Residential Sector ..................... .................... ................ 11.53 11.99 12.15 11.73 11.41 12.27 12.57 11.99 11.68 12.51 12.81 12.23 11.87 12.07

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;

rices are not adjusted for inflation.

b) Average self-service cash price.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices


2012 2013 2014 Year

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.rojections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

a) Average for all sulfur contents.

= no data available

WTI and Brent crude oils, and Henry Hub natural gas spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).

rices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.

c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.

Notes:The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.


28/46


Supply (million barrels per day) (a)

OECD ................................................ 22.52 22.40 22.26 22.96 23.03 23.34 23.46 24.14 24.12 24.11 24.23 24.56 22.54 23.49 2

U.S. (50 States) ............................. 10.83 10.90 10.96 11.56 11.66 11.80 11.98 12.27 12.36 12.48 12.54 12.85 11.07 11.93 1

Canada .......................................... 3.89 3.80 3.80 4.03 4.03 3.95 4.06 4.25 4.31 4.26 4.34 4.51 3.88 4.07

Mexico ............................................ 2.94 2.95 2.94 2.93 2.92 2.88 2.85 2.83 2.81 2.78 2.76 2.74 2.94 2.87

North Sea (b) ................................. 3.36 3.23 2.97 2.83 2.92 3.17 3.01 3.24 3.10 3.04 3.02 2.91 3.09 3.09

Other OECD ................................... 1.51 1.52 1.59 1.61 1.50 1.55 1.57 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.58 1.55 1.56 1.54

Non-OECD ........................................ 66.31 66.46 66.76 66.19 65.76 66.78 66.75 66.86 67.17 67.80 68.11 67.99 66.43 66.54 6

OPEC ............................................. 36.54 36.73 36.66 36.02 36.03 36.46 36.40 36.60 36.93 36.95 36.82 37.04 36.48 36.37 3

Crude Oil Portion ........................ 31.07 31.21 31.11 30.34 30.28 30.69 30.61 30.76 30.95 30.91 30.71 30.87 30.93 30.58 3Other Liquids ............................... 5.47 5.52 5.55 5.68 5.76 5.77 5.79 5.84 5.98 6.04 6.11 6.18 5.55 5.79

Former Soviet Union ...................... 13.40 13.34 13.33 13.47 13.48 13.42 13.09 13.33 13.34 13.34 13.40 13.44 13.39 13.33 1

China .............................................. 4.31 4.30 4.35 4.45 4.43 4.48 4.51 4.51 4.49 4.52 4.53 4.53 4.35 4.48

Other Non-OECD ........................... 12.06 12.09 12.41 12.26 11.82 12.43 12.75 12.42 12.40 12.98 13.37 12.97 12.20 12.36 1

Total World Supply ............................ 88.84 88.86 89.02 89.15 88.79 90.13 90.21 91.00 91.29 91.91 92.35 92.55 88.97 90.04 9

Non-OPEC Supply ............................ 52.30 52.13 52.36 53.13 52.75 53.67 53.81 54.40 54.36 54.96 55.53 55.51 52.48 53.66 5

Consumption (million b arrels per day) (c)

OECD ................................................ 46.26 45.52 45.91 46.36 46.06 45.06 45.62 46.24 46.25 44.93 45.49 46.09 46.01 45.75 4

U.S. (50 States) ............................. 18.41 18.65 18.67 18.66 18.52 18.66 18.70 18.72 18.70 18.70 18.74 18.76 18.60 18.65 1

U.S. Territories ............................... 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.32 0.33

Canada .......................................... 2.24 2.32 2.43 2.33 2.32 2.26 2.37 2.35 2.32 2.26 2.37 2.35 2.33 2.33

Europe ............................................ 13.72 13.75 13.79 13.81 13.40 13.30 13.74 13.71 13.41 13.12 13.55 13.52 13.77 13.54 1

Japan ............................................. 5.28 4.30 4.48 4.80 5.10 4.30 4.34 4.75 4.99 4.20 4.24 4.65 4.72 4.62

Other OECD ................................... 6.29 6.19 6.22 6.43 6.38 6.21 6.15 6.37 6.47 6.29 6.23 6.46 6.28 6.28 Non-OECD ........................................ 42.52 43.18 43.22 43.66 43.63 44.50 44.99 44.71 44.79 46.31 46.72 45.90 43.15 44.46 4

Former Soviet Union ...................... 4.68 4.70 4.87 4.86 4.86 4.78 5.06 5.05 5.03 4.95 5.24 5.23 4.78 4.94

Europe ............................................ 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.70 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.71

China .............................................. 10.32 10.09 9.93 10.59 10.62 10.58 10.66 10.87 10.80 11.38 11.37 11.06 10.23 10.68 1

Other Asia ...................................... 10.41 10.67 10.22 10.48 10.60 10.79 10.37 10.66 10.86 11.05 10.61 10.92 10.44 10.60 1

Other Non-OECD ........................... 16.43 17.03 17.48 17.00 16.86 17.65 18.17 17.39 17.39 18.22 18.77 17.95 16.99 17.52 1

Total World Consumption ................. 88.78 88.70 89.13 90.01 89.69 89.56 90.61 90.95 91.04 91.24 92.21 91.99 89.16 90.21 9

nventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)

U.S. (50 States) ................................ -0.31 -0.34 -0.11 0.24 0.06 -0.36 -0.08 0.48 -0.01 -0.33 -0.08 0.44 -0.13 0.02

Other OECD ...................................... -0.15 -0.04 -0.31 0.38 0.33 -0.07 0.18 -0.20 -0.09 -0.12 -0.02 -0.37 -0.03 0 .06

Other Stock Draws and Balance ...... 0.40 0.22 0.53 0.24 0.51 -0.13 0.30 -0.33 -0.15 -0.22 -0.03 -0.63 0.35 0 .09

Total Stock Draw ............................ -0.05 -0.16 0.11 0.86 0.90 -0.56 0.40 -0.05 -0.25 -0.67 -0.13 -0.56 0.19 0 .17

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)

U.S. Commercial Inventory .............. 1 ,082 1,112 1,123 1,101 1,095 1,128 1,136 1,092 1,093 1,123 1,131 1,090 1,101 1,092 OECD Commercial Inventory ........... 2,648 2,682 2,722 2,664 2,628 2,668 2,659 2,634 2,643 2,684 2,694 2,688 2,664 2,634

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data:Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.

b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.



Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.

c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.

Year

Monthly OECD supply and consumption does not yet include Chile, Estonia, Israel, or Slovenia.

Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

2013

a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.

Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,

= no data available

Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,

2012



29/46


North America ................................... 17.65 17.65 17.71 18.53 18.61 18.62 18.89 19.35 19.47 19.52 19.63 20.10 17.89 18 .8 7 1

Canada ................................................ 3.89 3.80 3.80 4.03 4.03 3.95 4.06 4.25 4.31 4.26 4.34 4.51 3.88 4.07

Mexico .................................................. 2.94 2.95 2.94 2.93 2.92 2.88 2.85 2.83 2.81 2.78 2.76 2.74 2.94 2.87

United States ....................................... 10.83 10.90 10.96 11.56 11.66 11.80 11.98 12.27 12.36 12.48 12.54 12.85 11.07 11 .9 3 1

Central and South America . ... .. .. .. .. 4.54 4.71 5.07 4.96 4.53 5.09 5.37 4.93 4.71 5.24 5.59 5.16 4.82 4.98

Argentina ............................................. 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.74 0.73

Brazil .................................................... 2.40 2.56 2.91 2.79 2.34 2.89 3.14 2.69 2.45 2.97 3.29 2.83 2.67 2.77

Colombia .............................................. 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.08 1.10

0.97 1.02

Other Central and S. America ............. 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.47 0.49 0.51 0.44 0.47

Europe ............................................... 4.29 4.14 3.88 3.74 3.82 4.07 3.91 4.15 4.00 3.94 3.93 3.82 4.01 3.99

Norway ................................................. 2.07 1.98 1.78 1.71 1.76 1.95 1.84 2.07 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.78 1.88 1.91

United Kingdom (offshore) .................. 1.05 1.01 0.95 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.90 0.91 0.98 0.93 0.91 0.87 0.98 0.93

Other North Sea .................................. 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.20 0.21 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.23 0.25

Former Soviet Union (FSU) ... .. .. .. .. .. . 13.42 13.35 13.34 13.48 13.49 13.43 13.10 13.35 13.35 13.36 13.41 13.46 13.40 13 .3 4 1

Azerbaijan ............................................ 0.96 0.95 0.90 0.95 0.92 0.91 0.86 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.94 0.90

Kazakhstan .......................................... 1.63 1.59 1.59 1.63 1.67 1.69 1.62 1.60 1.66 1.68 1.69 1.72 1.61 1.65

Russia .................................................. 10.35 10.33 10.37 10.39 10.38 10.31 10.10 10.33 10.29 10.30 10.36 10.38 10.36 10 .2 8 1

Turkmenistan ....................................... 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.24 0.27

Other FSU ........................................... 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.48 0.52

Middle East ........................................ 1.28 1.34 1.29 1.27 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.30 1.26

Oman ................................................... 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.88

0.91 0.88

Syria ..................................................... 0.20 0.21 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.16

Yemen ................................................. 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.17

Asi a and Oc eania ............................ 8.73 8.67 8.79 8.87 8.75 8.89 8.95 8.93 8.96 9.01 9.07 9.08 8.76 8.88

Australia ............................................... 0.47 0.49 0.57 0.59 0.48 0.54 0.55 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.52 0.53 0.52

China ................................................... 4.31 4.30 4.35 4.45 4.43 4.48 4.51 4.51 4.49 4.52 4.53 4.53 4.35 4.48

ndia ..................................................... 0.92 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93

ndonesia ............................................. 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.92 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.93 0.95

Malaysia ............................................... 0.65 0.60 0.61 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.60 0.60 0.63 0.64 0.67 0.70 0.61 0.59

Vietnam ................................................ 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.36

Afr ica .................................................. 2.39 2.27 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.34 2.43 2.58 2.62 2.63 2.62 2.31 2.35

Egypt .................................................... 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.72 0.71

Equatorial Guinea ................................ 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.32

Gabon .................................................. 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24

Sudan .................................................. 0.20 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.22 0.37 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.12 0.15

Total non-OPEC liquids .................... 52.30 52.13 52.36 53.13 52.75 53.67 53.81 54.40 54.36 54.96 55.53 55.51 52.48 53 .6 6 5

OPEC non-crude l iquids .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 5.47 5.52 5.55 5.68 5.76 5.77 5.79 5.84 5.98 6.04 6.11 6.18 5.55 5.79

Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .. .. .. . 57.77 57.65 57.91 58.81 58.51 59.44 59.60 60.25 60.34 61.00 61.64 61.68 58.04 59 .4 5 6

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.


Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

= no data available

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 20132012 2013 2014 Year

Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.


Historical data:Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release

Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.

Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.



30/46


Crude Oil

Algeria .......................................... 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.20 - - - - - - - - 1.25 -

Angola .......................................... 1.78 1.75 1.68 1.69 - - - - - - - - 1.73 -

Ecudaor ........................................ 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.50 - - - - - - - - 0.50 -

Iran ............................................... 3.40 3.09 2.75 2.67 - - - - - - - - 2.98 -

Iraq ............................................... 2.64 2.93 3.15 3.12 - - - - - - - - 2.96 -

Kuwait ........................................... 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 - - - - - - - - 2.60 -

Libya ............................................. 1.18 1.40 1.45 1.45 - - - - - - - - 1.37 -

Nigeria .......................................... 2.12 2.17 2.13 1.98 - - - - - - - - 2.10 -

Qatar ............................................ 0.82 0.73 0.73 0.73 - - - - - - - - 0.75 -

Saudi Arabia ................................. 9.93 9.86 9.93 9.50 - - - - - - - - 9.81 -

United Arab Emirates .................... 2.63 2.70 2.70 2.70 - - - - - - - - 2.68 -

Venezuela ..................................... 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 - - - - - - - - 2.20 -

OPEC Total ............................... 31.07 31.21 31.11 30.34 30.28 30.69 30.61 30.76 30.95 30.91 30.71 30.87 30.93 30.58 30.

Other Liquids ................................. 5.47 5.52 5.55 5.68 5.76 5.77 5.79 5.84 5.98 6.04 6.11 6.18 5.55 5.79 6.

Total OPEC Supply ........................ 36.54 36.73 36.66 36.02 36.03 36.46 36.40 36.60 36.93 36.95 36.82 37.04 36.48 36.37 36.

Crude Oil Production Capacity

Africa ............................................ 6.34 6.59 6.55 6.33 6.56 6.83 6.98 7.05 7.17 7.26 7.38 7.47 6.45 6.86 7.

South America .............................. 2.70 2.70 2.71 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.

Middle East ................................... 24.11 23.96 23.76 23.65 23.71 23.86 23.93 24.01 24.13 24.19 24.23 24.30 23.87 23.88 24.

OPEC Total ............................... 33.15 33.24 33.03 32.68 32.98 33.39 33.61 33.76 34.00 34.15 34.31 34.47 33.02 33.44 34.

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity

Africa ............................................ 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.South America .............................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.

Middle East ................................... 2.08 2.04 1.90 2.33 2.70 2.70 3.00 3.00 3.05 3.24 3.60 3.60 2.09 2.85 3.

OPEC Total ............................... 2.08 2.04 1.92 2.33 2.70 2.70 3.00 3.00 3.05 3.24 3.60 3.60 2.09 2.85 3.

Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 20132012 2013 2014 Year


Historical data:Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.

= no data available

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria (Africa); Ecuador and Venezuela (South America); Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United

Arab Emirates (Middle East).




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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 2013 20

North America ............................................................ 22.77 23.12 23.22 23.25 23.03 23.13 23.24 23.26 23.23 23.18 23.31 23.31 23.09 23 .1 6 23

Canada ........................................................................ 2.24 2.32 2.43 2.33 2.32 2.26 2.37 2.35 2.32 2.26 2.37 2.35 2.33 2.33 2

Mexico ......................................................................... 2.11 2.14 2.11 2.25 2.17 2.19 2.16 2.17 2.19 2.21 2.18 2.19 2.15 2.18 2

United States ............................................................... 18.41 18.65 18.67 18.66 18.52 18.66 18.70 18.72 18.70 18.70 18.74 18.76 18.60 18 .6 5 18

Central and South America ..................................... 6.51 6.74 6.76 6.81 6.76 7.01 7.04 7.02 6.98 7.23 7.27 7.24 6.70 6.96 7

razil ............................................................................ 2.65 2.76 2.82 2.81 2.78 2.89 2.95 2.94 2.92 3.03 3.10 3.08 2.76 2.89 3

urope ....................................................................... 14.41 14.44 14.51 14.53 14.09 14.00 14.46 14.43 14.12 13.83 14.29 14.25 14.47 14 .2 5 14

ormer Soviet Union .................................................. 4.70 4.73 4.90 4.89 4.89 4.81 5.09 5.08 5.06 4.98 5.27 5.26 4.81 4.97 5

Russia .......................................................................... 3.17 3.23 3.31 3.30 3.31 3.26 3.45 3.44 3.42 3.37 3.57 3.55 3.25 3.37 3

Middle East ................................................................ 7.42 7.79 8.29 7.70 7.49 8.04 8.58 7.78 7.72 8.31 8.87 8.03 7.80 7.98 8

Asi a and Ocean ia .................. ..................... .............. 29.52 28.44 28.06 29.43 29.88 29.02 28.68 29.85 30.27 30.05 29.60 30.26 28.86 29 .3 6 30

China ........................................................................... 10.32 10.09 9.93 10.59 10.62 10.58 10.66 10.87 10.80 11.38 11.37 11.06 10.23 10 .6 8 11

apan ........................................................................... 5.28 4.30 4.48 4.80 5.10 4.30 4.34 4.75 4.99 4.20 4.24 4.65 4.72 4.62 4

ndia ............................................................................. 3.50 3.53 3.20 3.46 3.63 3.62 3.32 3.58 3.78 3.76 3.45 3.73 3.42 3.54 3

Afr ica ..................... .................... ..................... ............ 3.44 3.44 3.40 3.42 3.55 3.55 3.51 3

Documents

IEA 2013 Predictions