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IdMRCTHEME
Design Information & Knowledge
Estimating and ManagingThrough Life Costs
PresenterLinda Newnes
Design Information
& Knowledge
2/22
Agenda
• Cost Modelling – basic summary of techniques.
• Aim of TLC at Bath• Through Life Cost Modelling at the University
of Bath• Industrial survey - findings• Example projects• Future Activities
Design Information
& Knowledge
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Cost Modelling Approaches – two of the basic techniques
• Generative Cost Modelling (as design progresses detail improves and cost models e.g. material, processes etc – lots of detail required).
• Parametric Cost Modelling (using past knowledge to predict cost e.g. weight of material used in aerospace and injection moulding).
Within these models uncertainty is important
Design Information
& Knowledge
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Aim of TLC Modelling at Bath
• Our focus is on concept design through to disposal.• Emphasis on knowledge information and
management for cost modelling.• Importance of ‘servitisation’ cost modelling.• Companies we work with include e.g. Airbus, GE-A,
Supplier Engagement Team at MOD, Renishaw.
The overall aim is to provide methods and tools for managing TLC from concept design to
in-service/disposal.
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& Knowledge
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Through Life Cost Modelling
50-70% Cost in-built at the concept design stage
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& Knowledge
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Industrial Survey – Findings (electronics sector)
• From concept design to in-service – aim of survey to assess approaches used and where.
• Findings– 90% did not use proprietary software (e.g. SEER, PRICE,
Relex etc.)– Majority using spreadsheets.– 75% said considered risk.– 35% considered uncertain parameters in their cost models.– Estimates used for pricing, budgets and negotiation - WIN
Business.– All stated their estimates could be improved – mainly to
improve their handling of bids.– Major problem limited data/information.
Design Information
& Knowledge
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Observations from industrialists
• OEMs now outsourcing design, manufacture and service.
• Unsure if getting ‘fair’ price from suppliers.• Want to manage the uncertainty in their
predictions/models.• Want to be able to use cost models to assess
supplier bids.• Want to undertake effective modelling to
decide bid/no bid.
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& Knowledge
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Example projects
• Low Volume Long Life Electronic Products.• Using quality improvement techniques at the
concept design stage.• Uncertainty in cost modelling (next
presentation).
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& Knowledge
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Low volume long life electronic defence products
• Joint research with the University of the West of England*.
• Funded by the IdMRC and IeMRC.• Focus is on through-life cost modelling.• Industrial partners Supplier Engagement
Team (old PFG), MOD and GE-A.• Research Team: Dr Linda Newnes, Professor
Tony Mileham, Dr Wai Ming (Denny) Cheung, Dr Jon Lanham* and Dr Robert Marsh*.
Design Information
& Knowledge
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Low Volume Long Life Electronic Products
Innovative Low Volume Complex Defence Systems
Conventional approaches are unreliable
Aim and Objectives Develop effective methods for TLC.
Provide a hybrid top-down and bottom-up approach.
To support a rough-cut cost estimate.
To accept greater detail to improve the accuracy of the cost estimate and enhance decision making at the early stage.
e.g. a standby display unit
100%
70%80%
85%95%
65%Actual Cost
Cumulative Cost
ConceptDevelopment / Demonstration
Manufacture In-Service Disposal
Source: SAE ARP4293
Product Lifecycle Phases
Cost Committed
20-30%
100%
70%80%
85%95%
65%Actual Cost
Cumulative Cost
ConceptDevelopment / Demonstration
Manufacture In-Service Disposal
Source: SAE ARP4293
Product Lifecycle Phases
Cost Committed
20-30%
Design Information
& Knowledge
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Product Exemplar – Modular Approach
WoundComponents1WoundComponents1WoundComponents1
OldConnectors1
Has been removed
OldConnectors1
Has been removed
PCB 1PCB 1 NewConnectors1 Other Components 1Other Components 1
Module 1
Power Supply Parametric Model available
Module 1
Power Supply Parametric Model available
Module 2
Display Parametric Model available
Module 2
Display Parametric Model available
Module 3 … n
Detail Models available
Electronic System Model
Whole-part Hierarchy
Electronic System Model
Whole-part Hierarchy
Conceptual design
Detailed design
Upgrade, Replacement and Design refresh
Top Down
Bottom Up
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& Knowledge
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Low volume long life electronic products
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& Knowledge
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Rules for Data-Driven TLC
DemonstrationConcept
Decisions of -input
-output
EMMbL
Product Configuration
Data TypesSearching
Rules for data type searching1. If <COTS> then obtain existing cost2. If <Parametric> then define cost from
CER3. If <Variant> then derive cost from a
mix of existing products and new products
4. If <Detailed> then model cost from <BoM>
5. If new and uncertain technology then5.1. Use Monte Carlo to analyse the
uncertainty5.2. Use a range of similar products
as input values to simulate the probability distribution i.e. (%new tech against Cost)
Development
Cost Estimation
Manufacture In-Service
Evaluation
Rules for in-service costs evaluation1. Replacement cost (If due to failure and unrepairable) 2. Maintenance cost (If it can be repaired and reused)3. Upgrade Cost (If due to obsolescence)
Timeline to perform design refresh for upgradei. Perform last-time buyii. Suppliers usually have prior notification from the
component manufacturer of when an upgrade will have taken place.
iii. When the systems / sub-systems / sub-modules no longer meet the requirements
iv. Use ‘technology road mapping’ technique for scheduling redesign milestones. This milestone can bemapped out using:
iv.i Reliability methods to predict how frequently thecore modules/components need to be replaced.
iv.ii Forecasted methods such as production plan to forecast the number of spares needed to replace productthat fails in the field during the product’s usage life.
Rules for in-service costs evaluation1. Replacement cost (If due to failure and unrepairable) 2. Maintenance cost (If it can be repaired and reused)3. Upgrade Cost (If due to obsolescence)
Timeline to perform design refresh for upgradei. Perform last-time buyii. Suppliers usually have prior notification from the
component manufacturer of when an upgrade will have taken place.
iii. When the systems / sub-systems / sub-modules no longer meet the requirements
iv. Use ‘technology road mapping’ technique for scheduling redesign milestones. This milestone can bemapped out using:
iv.i Reliability methods to predict how frequently thecore modules/components need to be replaced.
iv.ii Forecasted methods such as production plan to forecast the number of spares needed to replace productthat fails in the field during the product’s usage life.
Rules for disposal costs evaluation
1. If Trade-off studies1.1. Parts reconditioning1.2. Parts remanufacturing1.3. Parts Recycling
2. If no Trade-off study thenLandfills
1
2
3 4 5
6
Disposal
Evaluation
Data transfer for detailed analysis
if required
7
Collect information from the development and manufacture stages to evaluate a single prototype.
Design Information
& Knowledge
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Long life low volume electronic defence products
• Using data from in-service to feedback into design decisions considering e.g.– MTBF– Reliability data– Obsolescence.– Refresh (reasons customer, obsolescence etc).
• Using actual costs from historical product.• Same process used today.• Modelling in terms of modules and impact of
selections. • Completion September 2009.
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& Knowledge
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Using quality improvement techniques in cost modelling
• Aim is to make better use of the information available at the concept design stage.
• Model cost and impact of specification on cost for informed design decisions – at concept design stage.
• Using taguchi design of experiments (process capability modelling etc).
• Pilot study completed.• Industrial case study - Renishaw.• Completion October 2009.• Research team – Dr Linda Newnes, Professor Tony
Mileham and Mr Mo Saravi (PhD Student).
Design Information
& Knowledge
16/22
Matrix to Select the Most Appropriate Concept
• Normally designers do not consider cost as a factor to select the final concept.
• aim of this research is to add cost to this matrix to help designers to use cost to select the final concept.
Design Information
& Knowledge
17/22
Target Specification for Fluid Dispenser – Pilot Study
• The aim of this project was to design a new fluid dispenser for elderly people.
• The requirements were translated to engineering terms and a target specification was created.
Design Information
& Knowledge
18/22
Taguchi Method in Design of Experiment
• Taguchi method in DOE helps designers to determine parameter values that are least sensitive to noise factors.
• This technique can be used to improve the confidence level of cost estimates.
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& Knowledge
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Design of Experiment
• Assume four concepts have been created for the new dispenser.
• Cost model created for each concept.
• Used Delphi method to prioritise factors and their impact on cost.
• (A-E) are factors which have the greatest impact on cost of the product.
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Adding Cost to the Screening Matrix
Design Information
& Knowledge
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Current Status
• Fluid dispenser Pilot study
• Used the Delphi method to identify factors which have the greatest impact on cost of the product.
• Used DOE to assess cost for different values of the specification to find the optimum solution (the lowest possible cost for each concept) with highest confidence level.
• Using these result in the Screening Matrix to help designers to consider cost as a factor to select the final concept. - as well as importance of attribute of spec.
• Industrial case study
• Completion October 2009.
Design Information
& Knowledge
22/22
Visit to the IdMRC & Mechanical Engineering
Welcome to come and see the research at the University of Bath.
Any Questions
