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Identification in Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal of Economic Perspectives Volume 32, Number 3—Summer 2018—Pages 59–86 James J. Heckman Econ 312, Spring 2019

Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

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Page 1: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Identification in

Macroeconomics

by Emi Nakamura and Jón SteinssonJournal of Economic Perspectives

Volume 32, Number 3—Summer 2018—Pages 59–86

James J. Heckman

Econ 312, Spring 2019

Page 2: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

The Power of Portable Statistics

Micro and Macro Moments

Page 3: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Causal Effects as Identified Moments

Aggregate versus Cross-Sectional Identification

Page 4: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Fiscal Stimulus: Aggregate Evidence

Fiscal Stimulus: Cross-Sectional Evidence

Page 5: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Monetary Policy: What Is the Best Evidence We Have?

Large Shocks

Page 6: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Page 7: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Page 8: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Page 9: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Discontinuity-Based Identification

Using the Narrative Record to Identify Shocks

Page 10: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Page 11: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Controlling for Confounding Factors

Page 12: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Page 13: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

Page 14: Identification in Macroeconomics - University of Chicagojenni.uchicago.edu/econ312/Slides/Nakamura-Steins...May 02, 2019  · Macroeconomics by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson Journal

Nakamura and Steinsson Identification in Macroeconomics

What Do We Do with These Shocks?

Conclusion