IDB Megacities Symposium Professor Rae …...• The Pew Center [4] indicates dramatic increases in information technology usage, i.e., for the internet, computers and cell phones

Theme 2 Urban Infrastructure Services I. What infrastructure services are • Large systems to small components even atom scale • Natural, man-made II. Usage III. Performance issues • Eroding condition • Capacity not always keeping up with demand • Investment IV. Vulnerabilities • Historical location in vulnerable areas, e.g., flood zones,

ecologically sensitive areas, equity issues (affected by facilities and services, underserved)

• Increasing interdependencies V. Collisions with extreme events VI. New innovation to harden/promote infrastructure

IDB Megacities Symposium Professor Rae Zimmerman

Please cite this presentation when using the material elsewhere, and be aware of copyrights in source documents.

I. What They Are: Infrastructure Types - Examples Energy • Off-shore oil rigs • Mines and mills • Refineries • Storage facilities • Tank cars • Power plants • Energy transmission and distribution facilities and lines Water • Reservoirs • Dams • Aqueducts • Water treatment plants • Water supply transmission and distribution pipelines • Storage facilities • Wastewater collection or conveyance systems (sanitary sewers, storm sewers, combined sewers;

pumping stations) • Wastewater treatment plants Transportation • Roadways • Bridges • Rail lines • Airports • Mass transit • Pipelines • Marine transportation: harbors, ports, channels, terminals

IDB Megacities Symposium

II. Usage The Transportation Sector: Modes of Travel

Source: U.S. EPA (2013) Our Built and Natural Environments: A Technical Review of the Interactions among Land Use, Transportation, and

Environmental Quality, Second edition. Washington, D.C.: EPA http://www.epa.gov/dced/pdf/b-and-n/b-and-n-EPA-231K13001.pdf, p. 29


Biking and Walking Trends in Biking Compared to Walking (Trips) and Funding,

U.S., 1990-2009

USDOT, FHWA (May 2010) The National Bicycling and Walking Study: 15-Year Status Report p. 6, 5

http://drusilla.hsrc.unc.edu/cms/downloads/15-year_report.pdf


Source: U.S. Environmental Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/images/new_flow_chart.png. (Red line added to indicate disruptions during Hurricane Sandy).

The Energy Sector: Supply Chain


The Water Sector: Water Consumption – Type, Use

U.S. EPA (2013) Our Built and Natural Environments: A Technical Review of the Interactions among Land Use, Transportation, and Environmental Quality, Second edition. Washington, D.C.: EPA, p. 17, 19, 18. http://www.epa.gov/dced/pdf/b-and-n/b-and-n-EPA-231K13001.pdf


“Tipping Points” or Break Points Leading to Infrastructure Service and User Collisions: Some Examples

• Exponential rise in population, however, the trends vary dramatically by place and time – Average annual percentage change is declining – Population of developing nations is increasing faster

than developed nations – Urban populations are increasing faster than rural

areas • Per capita land consumption is increasing, contributing

to large distances that link production and consumption and reduced capacity of the land to manage water

• Infrastructure usage is increasing often exceeding capacity


Increased Infrastructure Use with Limited Capacity Adjustment: A Summary

• Energy Usage and Production: Based on EIA data, consumption and production increase (particularly in residential, commercial and transportation sectors) with depressions during recession periods (most recently late 2000s); production rates exceed consumption rates (Source: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, 2014, Fig. 1.1 http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf

• Transportation: According to FHWA data, Vehicle Miles of Travel and fuel consumption continue to increase in spite of fuel economy (Source of figure and findings: U.S. DOT, FHWA (April 2013) Highway Statistics 2011). APTA (2013) shows similar increases for public transit.

• Communications: Usage has been increasing exponentially, reflected in cell phone use (Source: CTIA (2014) Annual Wireless Industry Survey for 2013 http://files.ctia.org/pdf/CTIA_Survey_YE_2012_Graphics-FINAL.pdf


III. Performance: Infrastructure Use, Investment, Condition

Infrastructure usage has continued to grow:

• The U.S. DOT indicates Vehicle Miles of Travel is steadily increases (U.S. DOT[1]);

• The U.S. DOT and APTA indicate transit ridership is similarly increasing (APTA)

• According to EIA, energy production and use steadily increased nationwide.[2]

• CTIA indicates the exponential growth in cellular technologies.[3]

• The Pew Center [4] indicates dramatic increases in information technology usage, i.e., for the internet, computers and cell phones.

These services continue to be marked by poor condition and needing large investment thus diminishing use or usage quality:

Condition 2017: U.S. average is “D+”[5, p. 5]

Age: NYC infrastructure age ranges, according to CUF[6], are: sewer mains and subway facilities (about 80-90 years old) to airport support facilities (40-50 years old); water mains and bridges are in the middle.

Design and environmental issues: However, age may not be the whole story, since many bridge collapses have occurred in newer bridges[7]

Investment: ASCE estimates a $4.59 trillion need to 2025[5, p. 8]

Sources: : [1] U.S. DOT, FHWA Highway Statistics (April 2013) .[2]Center for Urban Future (2015) Caution Ahead, New York, NY: CUF, p. 11; [3] CTIA

(2014) Annual Wireless Industry Survey; [4] Pew Research Center, February 2014, “The Web at 25,” summarized from pp. 4, 11 and 13 Available at:

http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/02/27/the-web-at-25-in-the-u-s. [5] ASCE (2017) American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) (2017). “2017 report card

for America’s infrastructure,” ASCE, Washington, D.C.; [6] Center for an Urban Future (2014) Caution Ahead. Overdue Investments for New York’s Aging

Infrastructure, New York, NY: CUF; [7]R. Zimmerman, Transport the Environment and Security, 2012. R. Zimmerman NIST presentation October 2016


IV. Infrastructure Vulnerabilities A. Location: e.g., Coasts

Source: R. Zimmerman and C. Faris, “Infrastructure Impacts and Adaptation Challenges,” Chapter 4 in Climate Change Adaptation in

New York City: Building a Risk Management Response, New York City Panel on Climate Change 2010 Report, edited by C.

Rosenzweig and W. Solecki. Prepared for use by the New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force. Annals of the New York

Academy of Sciences, Vol. 1196. New York, NY, NY Academy of Sciences, 2010, pp. 63-85. Pp. 68, 69, 73. CSO figures drawn from

NYCPlaNYC.

NYC Power Plants NYC Combined Sewer Outfalls


Vulnerabilities B. Increasing Interconnections

Dependencies and Interdependencies

Definitions [1] • A dependency is activity in one direction: a flow of people,

information, commodities from one point to another • An interdependency is a flow of at least two ways Types of interdependencies Interdependencies can occur in a number of different forms [1]: • Functional • Spatial (proximity) • Cyber • Logical


Source: [1] Rinaldi, S., Peerenboom, J., and Kelly, T. (2001). “Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies.” IEEE Control Systems Magazine, 21(6), 11-25.

Interconnectivity: Centered on Energy

Source: U.S. DHS (2015) Sector Specific Plan for Energy, p. 19 https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/nipp-ssp-energy-2015-508.pdf

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

(September 2012) Annual Energy Review 2011, Washington, DC: U.S. EIA,

Figure 2.0, p. 37, http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/pdf/aer.pdf


Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/total_energy.pdf

Intra-Transit Multi-Modal Interconnections: Bus Connections at Subway Stations, NYC

Source: R. Zimmerman, C.E. Restrepo, J. Sellers, A. Amirapu, and Theodore R. Pearson (2014) “Promoting Transportation Flexibility in Extreme Events

through Multi-Modal Connectivity,” U.S. Department of Transportation Region II Urban Transportation Research Center, New York, NY: NYU-Wagner, June.

Final report available at: http://www.utrc2.org/sites/default/files/pubs/Final-NYU-Extreme-Events-Research-Report.pdf

Connectivity of Subway

Stations and Buses

Stopping

Connectivity is

important for flexible,

multi-modal

connections, greater

access to transit, and

evacuation

Number and distances

of buses are defined

within a 0.1 mile radius

of each subway station


Interdependencies under Normal (non-disruptive) Conditions

TRANSPORTATION WATER MANAGEMENT

Roads • Signals • Lighting

Rail track) • Signals • Switches • Lighting

Water Conveyance • Drainage Structures • Catch Basins • Culverts • Sewers

Transportation supports distribution and storage structures for water infrastructure via co-location (geographic dependence)

Water management infrastructure provides water reduction services for transportation to prevent flooding (functional dependence)

ENERGY

Dependence on energy

Transportation for water management Catch basin cleaning

Transportation for water management Catch basins and roads


Source: Developed by Professor Rae Zimmerman

Road Congestion from Trucks and Passenger Vehicles: 2040

Source: U.S. DOT (2013) Freight Facts and Figures 2012, pp. 40, 41 http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/docs/13factsfigures/pdfs/fff2013.pdf


V. Collisions of Infrastructure with Extreme Events

Source: NOAA (2006) NOAA Celebrates 200 years

NOAA (2013) Service Assessment, Hurricane/Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy, Cover page

NOAA (2016) Service Assessment The Historic SC Floods of Oct 1-5, 2015, Photos by NWS Weather Forecast Offices

and USGS, pp. 15, 22.

General Source: R. Zimmerman NIST presentation October 2016

Collisions: Infrastructure Interdependencies and Accidents - Electric Power and Transit Interconnections

• 2003 northeast U.S. and Canada blackout: Transit rail (electrified) took about 1.3 times and traffic signals 2.6 times as long to be restored relative to electric power restoration.*

• The Metro-North railway outage: Large power line impairment lasted over a week.**

• September 29, 2011 Lightening Strike on a LIRR Computer:*** Highly centralized network (most trains go through Jamaica station), high volume of traffic (81 million annually), few rail alternative; Multiple failures at the same time increased consequences dramatically - lightening strike disables trains west of Jamaica, programming error, third rail shut, 17 stranded trains, 9 standing trains. Opportunities for Intervention: More communication, computer training, securing facilities from natural hazards, travel alternatives

• Transformer explosions impairing transit: July 29, 2001 (NYC); power outages caused closures of San Francisco Bay Area and Chicago transit lines.****

• December 19, 2009: Eurostar trains were halted between London, Paris and Brussels from an electrical problem brought about by a water problem due to temperature differentials

Sources: *R. Zimmerman and C. E. Restrepo (2006) “The Next Step: Quantifying Infrastructure Interdependencies to Improve Security,” International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Vol. 2, Nos. 2/3, pp. 215-230; p. 223. **Matt Flegenheimer (September 25, 2013) Power Failure Disrupts Metro North’s New Haven Line; May Last Days, New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/26/nyregion/metro-norths-new-haven-line-suspended-after-power-loss.html ***Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) (October 2011), ‘Preliminary review September 29, 2011 lightning strike at Jamaica’, New York, NY, USA: MTA. ****Summarized and references contained in R. Zimmerman (2005) “Mass Transit Infrastructure and Urban Health,” J. of Urban

Health, 82(1), pp. 21-32; pp.27-28.


Collisions: Infrastructure Interdependencies and Extremes: Electric Power and Transit Interdependencies,

Post-Hurricane Sandy Transit and Electric Power

• Electric power was required to power trains and remove water from rail infrastructure, e.g.tunnels.

• Two weeks after Hurricane Sandy, about 80% of the transit lines were fully recovered and others were partially recovered along their routes.

• In 2012 after Hurricane Sandy compared to a similar period in 2011, system ridership declined on average about 14 %.

Source: R. Zimmerman, RAPID/Collaborative Research: Collection of Perishable Hurricane Sandy Data on Weather-Related Damage to Urban Power and Transit Infrastructure,” National Science Foundation, the U. of Washington (lead), Louisiana State University, and New York University; R. Zimmerman (2014), “Planning Restoration of Vital Infrastructure Services Following Hurricane Sandy: Lessons Learned for Energy and Transportation,” J. of Extreme Events, Vol. 1, No. 1.

U. S. Department of Energy (2013) Comparing the Impacts of Northeast Hurricanes on Energy Infrastructure. [Online], p. 11, 12 Available from: http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/04/f0/Northeast%20Storm%20Comparison_FINAL_041513c.pdf

Electric power recovery followed similar recovery patterns.

Transit required electric power to function (third rail, signals and switches; energy required robust transit infrastructure for physical support and to transport workers to repair sites.


Collisions: Human Activity, Infrastructure and Extreme Events: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source

Source: U.S. EPA (April 14, 2017) Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2015. Washington, D.C.: U.S. EPA, p. ES-28. Available at https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-2/documents/2017_complete_report.pdf


VI. New Innovations: Summary of Traditional and Innovative Consequence-Reduction Measures

Traditional Measures

• Barricade: Temporary and Permanent, intermittent operation

• Remove or relocate

• Elevate

• Bury

• Change materials and design to reduce exposure and consequences

Innovations

• Invoke mobile resource networks, e.g., “mutual assistance”

• Expand the use of alternative travel routes

• Provide alternative, distributed resources

• Fortify / strengthen (water and physical damage resistance) through

natural processes, e.g., green infrastructures

• Use alternative, decentralized modes of travel

• Increase Interconnection among systems

• Move people, change land use, change behavior


A Synopsis: The Past and the Future . . . • Problems We Have Faced and Are Facing:

– Increasing population growth and infrastructure location in sensitive areas

– Increasing consumption of natural resources often exceeding supplies and the capacity to sustain them

– Increasing natural hazards and climate changes often targeting population and population service locations

• Some Solutions and New Directions:

– Environmental quality is improving in some areas with the introduction of innovative adaptive arrangements

– Renewable resources in infrastructure sectors are taking off

– Use of public transit and alternative vehicles, water recycling and energy conservation is increasing

– Funding is beginning to support new initiatives


Documents

IDB Megacities Symposium Professor Rae …...• The Pew Center [4] indicates dramatic increases in information technology usage, i.e., for the internet, computers and cell phones