Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Master’s thesis Two years Environmental Science Vulnerabilities of municipal drinking water systems in tourist regions under a changing climate: A case study of Åre ski resort, northern Sweden Ida Leidermark
ii
MID SWEDEN UNIVERSITY Ecotechnology and Sustainable Building Engineering Examiner: Anders Jonsson, [email protected] Supervisor: Anders Jonsson, [email protected] Author: Ida Leidermark, [email protected] Degree programme: International Master’s Programme in Ecotechnology and Sustainable Development, 120 credits Main field of study: Environmental Science Semester, year: Spring, 2018
I dedicate this study to the memory of Morgan Fröling. “Not 9 billion people, 9 billion happy people”
“Subjective is not the same as arbitrary”
Thank you.
iv
Abstract Drinking water is a crucial provision for our survival and well-being. However, it is often taken for granted. The environmental objectives in Sweden appear insufficient to ensure drinking water with good quality, because the objectives lack clear protective descriptions, which allow municipalities to determine how to interpret and ensure drinking water. The purpose of this study is to investigate barriers and opportunities for sustainable management of drinking water sources in a tourist region. In order to fulfil the purpose, the study identifies vulnerabilities in the municipal drinking water system with the help from scenario analysis of climate change and tourism development. The study also presents relevant adaptation solutions. The DPSIR framework was used as a tool to categorize and describe the studied problem and was based on a literature study and a mapping of the study area. Åre ski resort was used as a case, and it is supplied with drinking water from two groundwater beds infiltrated by Åresjön (a lake, part of a river). Åresjön is included in an objective to keep drinking water quality standards. The results show that climate change and tourism development reduces surface and groundwater quality, primarily by increasing microbiological particles. Increases in the number of tourists combined with insufficient monitoring of groundwater levels and infiltration capacity knowledge are unsustainable and are expected to reduce the amount of water in the large groundwater beds. The identified most vulnerable parts of the drinking water system are within the municipal planning process, water production and wastewater treatment. Therefore, the various adaptation solutions address these issues. Direct and indirect adaptations are necessary to ensure sufficient drinking water of good quality until 2100. Tourism development is the main driver for affecting drinking water (if no adaptation measures are implemented). Keywords Climate change, adaptation, vulnerability assessment, drinking water, groundwater, surface water, tourism development, DPSIR framework.
v
Definition of key terms
Adaptation is initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous and planned.
Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.
Pathogens are microorganisms that can cause infections or create health problems in humans.
Radiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus upward, irradiance (expressed in Watts per square metre, W/m2) at the tropopause due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as, for example, a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun.
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
vi
Table of contents
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 11.1 Background ................................................................................................................... 11.2 Purpose .......................................................................................................................... 31.3 Goals .............................................................................................................................. 31.4 Delimitations ................................................................................................................ 3
2 Methods .................................................................................................................... 42.1 The methodological procedure ................................................................................. 42.2 Literature study and mapping of study area .......................................................... 42.3 Problem described by using the DPSIR framework ............................................ 5
2.3.1 The DPSIR framework .......................................................................................... 52.4 Scenario analysis ......................................................................................................... 8
2.4.1 Climate change ...................................................................................................... 82.4.2 Tourism forecast .................................................................................................... 9
2.5 Vulnerability assessment ......................................................................................... 102.6 Adaptation solutions ................................................................................................ 10
3 Results ..................................................................................................................... 113.1 Literature study .......................................................................................................... 11
3.1.1 Climate change and water ................................................................................. 113.1.2 Population and water ......................................................................................... 173.1.3 Means for protection of drinking water ........................................................... 18
3.2. Mapping Åre ski resort’s situation today ............................................................ 203.2.1 Tourism development ........................................................................................ 203.2.2 Drinking Water .................................................................................................... 213.2.3 Groundwater availability ................................................................................... 223.2.4 Wastewater ........................................................................................................... 223.2.5 Åresjön .................................................................................................................. 233.2.6 Water availability Åresjön ................................................................................. 273.2.7 Harmful substances ............................................................................................ 273.2.8 Landslides ............................................................................................................ 273.2.9 The municipal plan process ............................................................................... 28
3.3 Drinking water in Åre ski resort in relation to the DPSIR framework .......... 293.4 Scenario analysis ....................................................................................................... 30
3.4.1 Climate change scenario .................................................................................... 303.4.2 Tourism development scenario ......................................................................... 36
3.5 Vulnerability assessment ......................................................................................... 403.6 Adaptation solutions ................................................................................................ 44
4 Discussion .............................................................................................................. 47
vii
5 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 49
6 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................. 50
Appendices .................................................................................................................. 1Appendix A ......................................................................................................................... 1
Butlers theoretical model of evolution of a tourist area ........................................... 1Appendix B ......................................................................................................................... 3
Groundwater levels in Åre ski resort .......................................................................... 3Appendix C ......................................................................................................................... 5
Calculations for amount of tourist in 2100 ................................................................. 5Appendix D ........................................................................................................................ 6
Calculations for drinking water production/consumption ...................................... 6Appendix E ......................................................................................................................... 7
Calculations for amount of water in the groundwater beds ................................... 7
viii
List of figures
Figure 1. Model of followed methodology procedure ........................................... 4Figure 2. Illustration of the DPSIR framework.. ...................................................... 7Figure 3. Illustration of the tetrahedral model of sustainability ........................... 7Figure 4. The studied area for climate change parameters for Åre ski resort ..... 9Figure 5. pH at Kullenbron, 16km downstream from Åre .................................. 24Figure 6. Turbidity at Kullenbron, 16km downstream from Åre ....................... 24Figure 7. Total Phosphorus (Tot-P) at Kullenbron, 16km downstream Åre ..... 25Figure 8. E.coli. at Kullenbron, 16km downstream Åre ....................................... 26Figure 9. Coliform bacteria at Kullenbron, 16km downstream Åre ................... 26Figure 10. A conceptual model based on the DPSIR framework showing
identified factors with the greatest importance for drinking water in Åre ski resort ............................................................................................................. 30
Figure 11. The result of the scenario analysis in the conceptual model ............. 40Figure 12. The total points for quantification of the identified important factors
in the conceptual model ................................................................................... 42
List of tables Table 1. Parameters for validation of important factors regarding drinking water in
Åre ski resort .......................................................................................................... 5Table 2. Representative assumptions for RCP scenarios .............................................. 9Table 3. Waterborne pathogens that have meaning for Sweden ................................. 14Table 4. Predicted changes in temperature parameters for Åre ski resort .................. 31Table 5. Predicted changes in precipitation parameters for Åre ski resort ................. 32Table 6. Predicted changes in flood parameters for Åre ski resort .............................. 33Table 7. Predicted changes in soil moisture in Åre ski resort ..................................... 33Table 8. Predicted changes in snow cover in Åre ski resort ....................................... 34Table 9. Predicted change in slow changing groundwater beds in Åre ski resort ...... 35Table 10. Quantified factors for their importance for drinking water quanlity and
amount in Åre ski resort ...................................................................................... 41
1
1 Introduction
1.1 Background Climate change impacts both human and natural systems, such as communities and ecosystems (Lavell et al., 2012; Kaufmann & Cleveland, 2008). Depending on where a society is located, the climate will change differently (Kaufmann & Cleveland, 2008; SMHI, 2006). Yet, most models indicate that future effects of climate change will be the same as those present today, such as change and variation in precipitation, air and water temperature and storm runoff (Whitehead et al, 2009; Chang, 2004; Kundzewicz & Krysanova, 2010). Crucial factors for how a society will be affected rely on development and adaptation, in other words, on local conditions (Haines, Kovats, Campbell-Lendrum & Corvalan, 2006; SMHI, 2006). Ecosystem services will be lost if change occurs faster than there is time to adapt (McNeely, Mittermeier, Brooks, Boltz & Ash, 2009). According to Filho, Musa, Cavan, O´Hare and Seixas (2010) climate change adaptation (CCA) has different definitions and a standardized way of notions dealing with indicators and measures does not exist. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines CCA as ”adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploit beneficial opportunities” (Lavell, et al., 2012, p. 869), which will be used in this study. Water can be seen as the most important provisioning service, as life on earth depends on it (McNeely, et al., 2009). Even though drinking water is crucial to our survival and well-being it is, at least in high-income countries, often taken for granted (Tornevi, 2015). Climate change, population increase, land use changes, economic development are some of the factors that can impact water resources (Juménez Cisneros et al., 2014). There seems to be a general consensus that higher temperatures (Duran-Encalada, Paucar-Caceres, Bandala & Wright, 2017; Bates et al, 2008), increased rainfall, more severe and frequent natural hazards (Bates et al, 2008) as well as heat waves for a long period of time reduces the quantity and quality of water (SOU, 2015). Juménez Cisneros et al. (2014) further argue that water quality has a nonlinear relationship with climate variables, in addition to temperature.
2
In Sweden, the municipalities (which are dependent on objectives and legislation for their work) are responsible for measures and implementation of CCAs (Roth & Thörn, 2015). Among the Swedish environmental objectives none treats the subject of drinking water alone. The closest one is the objective “Groundwater with good quality”, which states that a sustainable supply of drinking water should be ensured (SGU, 2016a). However, about 50% of the amount of drinking water in Sweden comes from surface water sources (SOU, 2015). Furthermore, the objective has not been achieved and there is low potential to do so with current measures and strategies, according to The Geological Survey of Sweden. In their latest evaluation, it is stated that in order to identify, prioritize and manage problems, it is necessary to develop or improve the monitoring of groundwater (SGU, 2014a). Other environmental objectives more directly related to surface water are: “Living lakes and streams” and “Only natural acidification”. However, these objectives do not mention drinking water in their descriptions (SGU, 2016b; SGU, 2016c). Another objective that indirectly includes surface water is: “Nontoxic environment”. This objective mentions drinking water in the objective text when exemplifying high-fluorinated substances in the environment, in an example of a discovery of the substances in Swedish drinking water sources (SGU, 2017). The environmental code (1998:808), 21 §, states: “a land or water area may be declared by the county administrative board or the municipality as a water conservation area for protection of a groundwater or surface water resource utilized or likely to be utilized as a water source”. In order to maintain a sustainable use of water, according to the European Union law (2000/60/EC), all drinking water sources should be protected by water conservation areas in 2010. In Jämtland county, about half of the municipal water sources have been protected (Länstyrelsen Jämtlands län, 2018a). Among the EU’s sustainable development objectives, drinking water is more directly included: “Ensure access to water and sanitation for all”. This objective has a sub-goal, which states that all people should have safe drinking water (EU, 2017). Based on the above-mentioned objectives and legislations, there is a clear gap in how to ensure drinking water as well as drinking water with good quality in Sweden. Municipalities have directly or indirectly the responsibility for water supply (Public water services (SFS 2006:412).
3
Depending on how the objectives and legislations are interpreted, they may decide to ensure the supply in various ways and with varying degrees of safety.
1.2 Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate barriers and opportunities for sustainable management of drinking water sources in a tourist region. The study’s definition of sustainable management of drinking water sources is: “To meet the need for the necessary amount of drinking water and in a quality that does not pose health risks, today and in the future”.
1.3 Goals • Create a scenario analysis that describe potential future development
in Åre ski resort regarding drinking water, including climate change and tourism development
• Make a vulnerability assessment regarding drinking water in Åre ski resort with help from the scenario analysis
• Present adaptation solutions for anticipated future climate change effects, based on the identified vulnerabilities in Åre ski resort
1.4 Delimitations The studied geographical area is Åre ski resort (Åre/Duved), which is supplied with raw water from two separated groundwater beds. Åresjön (a lake) is the name of the part of Indalsälven that lies by Åre and intrudes (infiltrates) the groundwater beds, which means that the raw water is “surface affected”. Indalsälvens Water Quality Association, (a collaboration between 25 members e.g. municipalities and companies, within the water basin of Indalsälven) aims for the water quality in Indalsälven to match the target value for drinking water quality (Jonsson, 2006). Based on this, Åresjön is included in the study as a surface water source. The climate change scenarios are up to year 2100 (SMHI, 2017a), thus emphasizing the time perspective for this study.
4
2 Methods This section describes the methods and details of used data. First, a general description of the methodology is presented, followed by sections of more detailed explanations.
2.1 The methodological procedure The methodological procedure used in this study is illustrated with a model in figure 1. The first step, data collection, consisted of a literature study of the subject: drinking water and climate change, in combination with a mapping of the situation of the studied area: Åre ski resort. The literature study and mapping were executed parallel to each other, thereby interfering each other. For example: based on findings in the literature study, the situation of the studied area was assessed. Thereafter, the problem was described using the DPSIR framework and presented in a conceptual model. The model was then used to create a scenario analysis of the development in Åre ski resort. The scenario analysis was followed by a vulnerability assessment of drinking water in the same area. Lastly, adaptation solutions were presented based on the vulnerability assessment.
Figure 1. The model illustrates the methodology of the study procedure.
2.2 Literature study and mapping of study area The literature study and the mapping of the study situation were used to gather data, in order to describe and identify areas that have possible connections to each other, and that can have a potential to affect drinking water. Reference material for the literature study and the mapping of Åre ski resort’s situation was mainly collected from peer-reviewed scientific articles from: Primo, Google scholar, Science direct, SpringerLink and Wiley Online Library. Main keywords were: drinking water, groundwater, surface water,
5
climate change, population, tourism, quality, quantity, impacts, fresh water, and adaptation. The words were used in different combinations. Materials from credible organizations were mainly collected from their homepages e.g. Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU) and Sweden’s Meterological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). Information about Åre ski resort has also partly been provided from Åre municipality in forms of maps and verbal information.
2.3 Problem described by using the DPSIR framework The findings in the literature study and the mapping of the study situation were used as the basis for the identification of factors that affect drinking water in Åre. The factors for this study were identified using a list of parameters, presented in table 1. The parameters were based on characteristics that in this study were deemed crucial for drinking water in Åre ski resort, e.g. amount and quality. The identified factors were then categorized according to the categories of the DPSIR framework (see figure 2) (DPSIR framework is further described in paragraph 2.3.1). The result was presented in a conceptual model (as the one showing in figure 2), where relationships can be seen and followed. The created conceptual model describes the most important factors for changes of drinking water regarding water quality and amount. It is presented as a dynamic model that can be applied to changes, as done in the scenario analysis (Paragraph 2.4). Table 1. Parameters for validation of important factors regarding drinking water in Åre ski resort where all must be met. Parameters for validation of factors
Valid in Åre ski resort
Concerns the amount of ground and/or surface water
Concerns the quality of the ground and/or surface water
Concerns the water plant and/or it´s system
2.3.1 The DPSIR framework The DPSIR framework is a tool that organizes and describes environmental problems. It evaluates cause-effects relationships (Smeets & Weterings, 1999) that connect socioeconomic factors with ecological (Bradley & Yee, 2015). The DPSIR framework model consists of five components: Drivers; Pressures;
6
States; Impacts; and Responses, illustrated in figure 2. In general, “Drivers” cause a change in the system or the relationship of “pressures” that further change the “state” that leads to “impacts”. “Responses” addresses the impacts and minimize the factors within the other categories (Bradley & Yee, 2015; Smeets & Weterings, 1999; Maxim, Spangenberg & O´Connor, 2008). There is further no clear template for how to apply the DPSIR framework; there are several interpretations and developments of the framework (Bradley & Yee, 2015; Kristensen, 2004; Giupponi, 2002; Sun et al., 2016). The application of the framework in this study was based mainly on the methods in these reports: “An analysis of risks for Biodiversity under the DPSIR framework” by Maxim, Spangenberg and O´Connor (2008), and Environmental indicators: typology and overview by Smeets & Weterings (1999). These reports have similar interpretations of the core of the DPSIR framework that makes the framework applicable (although there are minor differences). Since the studied problem contains the perspective of climate change, the framework was adapted to match the effects of this, along with other potential factors that affect drinking water. More directly the identified factors represent areas that have the greatest significance (regardless of element or belonging) for drinking water impact in Åre ski resort. This study uses the definition of “drivers” as problems that change the systems and/or the relationship of the social, political and economic spheres that trigger “pressures”. “Pressures” have the potential to contribute to or cause “impacts” that change the “state”. “State” refers to the state in the environment, which consists of the conditions; biological, chemical, and physical, and which are affected by the result of the “pressure”. “Impacts” is defined as changes in functions, which affect the three spheres: social, economic and environmental. “Responses” are the measures to address the “impacts” and to minimize the “pressures” and “drivers” that cause “impacts”. The DPSIR framework and the relationships are shown in figure 2.
7
Figure 2. Illustration of the DPSIR framework. Adapted from “Environmental indicators: typology and overview” by Smeets & Weterings, (1999). Maxim, Spangenberg and O´Connor’s report (2008) has been more important for this study because of its analysis of the DPSIR framework in combination with a sustainability framework (tetrahedral model of sustainability), developed by O´Connor (2007). O´Connor has added a political sphere to the “triple bottom line” (social, economical and environmental) in the tetrahedral model, which lies on top of the others (Figure 3), having a different relationship, like a role of a referee (O´Connor, 2007). As this study looks at a municipal drinking water system and presents solutions for the municipality (governed by politics), the political sphere (and approach) is relevant for the management of the DPSIR framework in Åre ski resort. The studied problem has, with the help of the tool, been given relationships (by categorizing the most important factors), which clarifies the studied problem in detail.
Figure 3. Illustration of the tetrahedral model of sustainability where the political sphere lies on top of the social, economical and environmental spheres. Adapted from “The “four spheres” framework for sustainability” by O´Connor’s (2007).
8
2.4 Scenario analysis The scenario analysis represents a future development in Åre ski resort to year 2100 and was based on changes in the specified factors in the categories “drivers”: climate change and tourism. The created conceptual model (with the specified factors) was used to further describe the scenarios in relation to the studied problem, where each factor was evaluated and forecasted based on the findings in the mapping of the situation in Åre ski resort (no further qualitative data). The analysis was used to help indicate vulnerable areas in relation to expected changes.
2.4.1 Climate change Maps of scenario data from SMHI’s website were analysed in order to estimate a possible future climate in Åre ski resort. The data is based on the latest (2009) climate scenarios by IPCC and are referred to as RCP-scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways). The two available scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were selected. The number represents the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that generates a radiative forcing of XW/m2 year 2100, compared with preindustrial levels (SMHI, 2017a). The scenarios represent assumptions about future development (Table 2), where RCP8.5 is closest to today’s situation (SMHI, 2017b). RCP4.5 represents the second lowest scenario (out of four) where stronger actions have been taken (SMHI, 2017b). Both scenarios will be used in the scenario analysis to give an overall assessment and thus show what is most likely and which has the strongest indications of the outcome. No direct numbers were used further in the analysis, except for to indicate an increase or decrease, which are based on the rate of changes.
9
Table 2. Representative assumptions for given scenario. Adapted from “Framtidsklimat i Jämtlandslän –enligt RCP-scenarier” by Nylén et al., (2015).
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Increase of CO2 emissions until 2040 Continue high CO2 emissions and three times higher 2100 than today. Rapid increase in methane emissions.
Just below 9 billions of people 12 billion people which mean increased used of cropland and grassland
Decreasing use of cropland and grasslands due to yield increases and dietary changes
Low rate of technology development for energy efficiency
Strong reforestation programmes Heavy reliance on fossil fuels
Low energy intensity High energy intensity
Powerful climate policy No additional climate policy
To get as representative results as possible for this study, an area of 8 pixels around Åre were included for the analysis of future scenarios in Åre ski resort, see figure 4.
Figure 4. The black point shows Åre and the red line surrounds the studied area for climate change parameters for Åre ski resort, which includes total 9 pixels. Adapted from “Länsvisa klimatanalyser, Jämtland” by SMHI (2018a).
2.4.2 Tourism forecast To determine where in the development curve the tourism industry is today, and to see potential development directions of the industry an analysis of the tourism industry was made based on Butler’s (1980) hypothetical model of evolution of a tourist area. In the model, Butler shows that the evolution of a tourist area follows a “logistic growth pattern”, i.e. an exponential phase followed by a consolidation phase with different possible further development pathways (stabilization, decline or overshoot). Furthermore, it is stated that the number of tourists will continue to increase until the environmental, social and/or physical carrying capacities are reached, e.g. crowding, water quality, or accommodation. Butler’s theoretical model and
10
theory (Appendix A) were compared to a tourist development chart of the number of guest nights in Åre’s ski resort between 2003/2004 and 2015/2016 (Åre kommun, 2018) together with input of historical and status information of Åre’s ski resort (to declared patterns) (Paragraph 3.2.1).
2.5 Vulnerability assessment To localise and evaluate vulnerabilities, the identified factors (the method is described in paragraph 2.3 and the factors (result) are found in figure 10) were classified due to their ability to affect drinking water (quality and amount) in Åre ski resort. The assessment was based on three scenarios; present time (business-as-usual), with effects of climate change, and based on tourism development. The two last mentioned ones represent the outcome of the scenario analysis (Paragraph 2.4). Thus, the scenario analysis has helped to identify vulnerabilities for drinking water regarding changes, i.e. situation in the future time. Quantification was estimated by classifying the factors into four different significances; 1 = small, 2 = moderate, 3 = considerable and 4 = severe. The qualification is further based on earlier findings in the study. The result was presented in a table (Table 10) and the total score of all three scenarios were summed up to indicate the highest degree of vulnerability. Relevant explanations were followed and the total points were added to the DPRSIR framework to identify the weakest relationships.
2.6 Adaptation solutions The adaptation solutions were based on the vulnerability assessment, i.e. the quantification (points) of the identified factors for drinking water in Åre ski resort. It was the highest points in each scenario (present time, climate change and tourist development) as well as the combined total results that constituted as the basis for the solutions. A literature study was conducted to identify possible adaptation solutions to the identified vulnerabilities.
11
3 Results This section presents the results of each segment in the methodology procedure (Figure 1).
3.1 Literature study This section covers expected changes and effects from climate change that have the potential to affect drinking water, public and water-related relationships, and means for drinking water protection.
3.1.1 Climate change and water
3.1.1.1 Groundwater Groundwater has normally a good microbiological quality, a low and even temperature (Ojala, Thunholm, Maxe, Persson, & Bergmark, 2007) and a low concentration of organic substances (SOU, 2007). This is due to infiltration in the unsaturated part of the ground, which has a significant effect on the removal of viruses, contaminated substances and removal of coliform and heterotrofic bacteria. Released substances in groundwater are further dependent on residence time and geological formation (Ojala et al., 2007). Organic substances decrease, and the level of salt (alkalilnity) increases, in correlation with the residence time (Ojala et al., 2007; Svenskt Vatten, 2007). A shortened residence time increases the risk of virus infection (Svenskt Vatten, 2007). The response time in large groundwater beds is slow and the water level changes slowly (SGU, 2014b). Increased precipitation may increase the groundwater level, which reduces the saturated part in the ground. This can have an effect on the groundwater’s quality, e.g. by affecting the separation of microbial contaminants deteriorates. An increased air temperature may increase the groundwater temperature, which increases the growth of microorganisms and causes adverse effects on the composition of the species (Aastrup, Thunholm, Sundén & Dahné; SOU, 2007; Dryselius, 2012). Floods can also increase groundwater levels and create new infiltration pathways to groundwater beds (Svenskt Vatten, 2007). Floods are therefore often a cause of contamination of groundwater and the source of disease outbreaks (Hunter, 2003). Changes in groundwater levels are predicted to be the greatest in groundwater beds with a slow residence time (SOU, 2015). The groundwater level in larger groundwater beds (with slow residence time) in
12
northern Sweden is predicted to be higher, both the lowest and the highest levels. This is mainly due to the fact that the dominant part of the water comes from melting snow and precipitation increases in the form of rain, which will contribute to a higher groundwater level in the fall. The difference between the lowest and highest water level is expected to decrease in northern Sweden (SOU, 2015). Sources of low groundwater recharge appear to have the highest sensitivity to precipitation changes and the lowest for high groundwater recharge (Crosbie et al., 2013). According to Ojala et al. (2007) climate change impacts groundwater by affecting groundwater flow, water levels, size, residence time and the quality of the water that is infiltrated. Earman, Campbell, Phillips and Newman (2006) argue that snow melting can account for 40-70% of groundwater recharge. The IPCC furthermore states that it is very likely in a warmer climate that evapotranspiration increases (Juménez Cisneros et al., 2014), which can affect the groundwater level as plants extract water from the ground.
3.1.1.2 Increased amount of substances in surface waters Water sources are expected to catch more pollution due to greater runoff (Boxall et al., 2009; Bates et al., 2008). Humus is expected to increase in Swedish surface waters, which in combination with increased transport of sediment (by flooding) increases the risk of particulate dispersion of various contaminants (Svenskt Vatten, 2007). An increase in organic matter deteriorates drinking water quality (Weatherhead & Howden, 2009), and concentrations of nitrogen in soils are expected due to climate change (Ducharne et al. 2007; Wilby et al. 2006) due to less precipitation during summers. The nitrogen in the soil can furthermore reach rivers and cause an increase of nitrate concentration (Wilby et al., 2006). Kaste et al. (2006) state that an increase of nitrate flux in a river basin in Norway is predicted to be up to 40-50% by 2070-2100
3.1.1.3 Algal bloom and eutrophication If the surface water temperature increases, algal bloom increases, which may affect the quality of raw water (SOU, 2015; Juménez Cisneros et al., 2014). For example, heavy precipitation may distribute phosphorous into lakes (Delpha, Jung, Baures, Clement & Thomas, 2009) and an increased water temperature in combination with increased nutrients increases cyanobacterial bloom (Hunter, 2003). Heat waves during summers can reduce vertical turbulent mixing which may increase the development of cyanobacteria. New types of
13
cyanobacteria for habitats (invasive species) can occur (Jöhnk et al., 2008) and have also been identified by Wiedner, Rucker, Bru ggemann, and Nixdorf (2007) as well as Brient, Lengronne, Bormans and Fastner (2008). Lakes with long residence times get higher temperatures and face increasing phosphorus levels (Malmaeus, Blenckner, Markensten & Persson, 2006).
3.1.1.4 Waterborne diseases Hydrometerological events have been linked to disease outbreaks (Boholm & Prutzer, 2017; Cann, Thomas, Salomon & Wyn-Jones, 2013) and there appears to be a clear correlation between waterborne diseases and heavy precipitation (Aastrup et al., 2012; SOU, 2007; Dryselius, 2012). Even small increases in temperature and changes of precipitation have been linked to measurable diarrheal burden (Haines et al., 2006). Climate change increases viruses and waterborne bacteria, which increases the risk of diarrheal diseases (Smith et al., 2014). Pathogens and faecal coliform existence in the environment increases with an increasing runoff, but also heavy metals and salts (Paerl et al., 2006; Pednekar et al., 2005; Boxall et al., 2009). However, human waste may often be the source of the water pollution (Häflinger, Hübner & Lüthy, 2000). WHO (2011) confirms this, and mean that the primary risks to drinking water consist of pathogens, where humans and animal faeces are the contaminants. One of the most reported effects for groundwater quality studies is just an increase in the concentration of faecal coliforms due to precipitation periods (Curriero et al., 2001; Juménez Cisneros et al., 2014). Charron et al. (2004) refer to a study of waterborne diseases in US, where periods of extreme rainfall were associated with more than half of the outbreaks. A study in Sweden (regarding both groundwater and surface water) also showed a correlation between an increase in gastrointestinal illnesses after precipitation. The study measured nurse advice line calls due to acute gastrointestinal illnesses and the result showed an increase in such calls by 13% after 5-6 days with 30mm/24hour precipitation event. 8% more calls were linked to 5 consecutive rainy days. Notably, the study examined “normal” illnesses (not outbreaks) from drinking water considered of good quality (Tornevi, 2015). Another study shows that a higher turbidity in the raw water (that has been treated) increased gastrointestinal diseases with hospitalization in elderly people by 10% (Schwartz, Levin & Goldstein, 2000). Outbreaks often occur during spring when heavy rain and snowmelt stand as important factors (Charron et al., 2004). Furthermore, the Swedish study
14
showed an increase in acute gastrointestinal illnesses in relation to drinking water in February-April (highest) but with a continued increase in Nov-Feb and May (Tornevi, 2015). The required amount of pathogens for symptoms varies. About 1-1000 particles of protozoans and viruses cause symptoms of diseases. Infection trough a wounded skin has a higher fatality than ingested (Leggett, Cornwallis & West, 2012). Also, the incubation time varies, making it difficult to map a trace of microbiological diseases (Hoxie, Davies, Vergeront, Nashold & Blair, 1997). Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts, that are correlated with rainfall (Alterholt, LeChevalier, Norton & Rosen, 1998) are the main pathogens found in drinking water in the industrialised world (Chin, 2000). An increased water temperature may also be associated with Legionella (Smi, socialstyrelsen & SVA, 2011). Table 3 shows the pathogens that are of greatest importance to Sweden with classifications of pathogens in important factors e.g. their persistence in water sources. Table 3. The table presents waterborne pathogens that have meaning for Sweden. Adapted from “Dricksvattenförsörjning i förändrat klimat by Svenskt Vatten, 2007 based on WHO, (2011).
Healthsignificance
Persistenceinwatersource,20°c
Resistancetochlorine
Relativeinfectivity
Importantanimalsource
Bacteria
Campylobacter jejuni, C.coli High Week-month Low Moderate Yes
Escherichia coli pathogenic High Week-month Low Low Yes
Legionella spp. High Multiplies Moderate Moderate No
Viruses
Adenovirus High >month Moderate High No
Norovirus High >month Moderate High Potentially
Sapovirus High >month Moderate High Potentially
Protozoan
Cryptosporidium High >month High High Yes
Giardia intestinalis High Week-month High High Yes
Naegleria fowleri High Abilitytomultiplyinwarmwater
High High No
15
78 outbreaks of diseases are known in Sweden between 1992-2011, where 70 000 people became ill from drinking water (Folkhälsomyndigheten, 2016a). 53% of them were linked to water from plants and 29% from private wells. In 54% of the outbreaks the cause was unknown, in 20% the cause was Calicivirus and in 8% Campylobacter (Folkhälsomyndigheten, 2016b) (see table 3). The largest outbreak in Sweden and in Europe happened in Östersund in 2010, (about 100km from Åre ski resort) where Cryptosporidium made 27 000 persons ill (Folkhälsomyndigheten, 2016c). The outbreak is believed to have originated in the responsible water plants, due to breakage of pipe or low pressure, as well as backflow (Säve-Söderbergh, Malm, Dryselius & Toljander, 2013). When water flow (precipitation or snowmelt) becomes more intense it may be necessary to broaden the wastewater system (releasing untreated wastewater into the environment), which leads to a higher risk of sewage coming into raw water and surface water sources (Bergstedt et al., 2013; Charron et al., 2004). Treated and released sewage water (into the environment) is, according to Åström and Pettersson (2009), an important source of microbiological distribution. Charron et al. (2004) argue that mechanical problems are often involved in problems of water treatment. Fire can also affect functions and create disturbances for water related plants (SOU, 2007).
3.1.1.5 Harmful substances Health and environmental disturbing substances, which are difficult to biodegrade and do not dissolve in water, are not removed through the infiltration process. Heavy rain and more frequent precipitation in combination with increased drying ground increases leakage of chemicals and other possible pollutions from e.g. old industries (SOU, 2015). There is also a correlation between chemical concentration and the groundwater level, when the water reaches organic matter higher up in the ground due to higher water levels (Aastrup et al., 2012). A higher amount of natural organic matter (NOMs), e.g. due to warmer temperatures, require increased use of disinfectant chemicals, which increase the concentration of disinfection by-products (DBPs) (Kovacs, 2013). DBPs can consist of substances that have carcinogenic effects (Singer, 1993) and have previously been found in drinking water (Symons et al., 1975; Delpha et al., 2009). Temperature and treatment processes determine the effectiveness of removal pharmaceuticals (Choi et al., 2008). The factors reported to have a
16
significant effect on the formation of DBPs (except for operation factors) are dissolve organic carbon (DOC), pH, and temperature (Nikolaou, Golfinopoulos, Arhonditsis, Kolovoyiannis & Lekkas, 2004; Teksoy, Alkan & Baskaya, 2008). Treatment performance may be deteriorated, due to organic matter and increased degree of turbidity (which may be due to heavy rain) (Delpha et al., 2009). Poor wastewater treatment (which may arise from rapid population growth and operational constrains) creates a health hazard and can cause adverse effects on water bodies (Teklehaimanot, Kamika, Coetzee & Momba, 2015). The warmer the water, the easier it is to separate viruses (Aastrup et al., 2012; SOU, 2007; Dryselius, 2012). Chemicals that can affect human health are even more difficult to trace and correlate than microorganisms due to a longer time for an impact (Dryselius, 2012).
3.1.1.6 Erosion, landslides and sediment load The IPCC states that erosion will become more intense even if the total rainfall does not increase. Climate change will affect sediment load in rivers based on change of land cover and water discharge (Juménez Cisneros et al., 2014). Soil erosion has also a strong dependence on land cover and will (as well as sediment load) increase by an increasing temperature and heavy rainfall (Juménez Cisneros et al., 2014; Kundzewicz, 2007). An increased precipitation intensity that generates an increased erosion and runoff may further lead to an increased transport of pollutants (van Vlietand & Zwolsman, 2008; Zwolsmand & van Bokhoven, 2007; SOU, 2015). Another study shows similar results, in the Yellow River basin, were a connection between reduced precipitation and reduction in stream sediment loads were identified (Wang et al., 2007). Identified crucial parameters for landslides are: changing groundwater conditions, higher flows, erosion, poor water pressure and ground frost conditions (SGI, 2012; Göransson, Hedfors, Ndayikengurukiye, Blied, & Odén, 2015; Andersson et al., 2015). Colder regions will experience a higher increase in sediment loads and soil erosion when total precipitation increases and when a shift from snow to rain occurs (Lu et al., 2010). A change in precipitation during the winter can also affect litter cover, biomass production and soil moisture (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). Extreme precipitation, e.g. monsoons in combination with population growth, can lead to an increased exposure (Petley, 2012). Higher air temperatures combined with reduced precipitation increase the risk of fire (SOU, 2015).
17
Fires with a subsequent rain will increase intense erosive events (Nyman et al., 2011). Landslides that affect infrastructure of e.g. wastewater systems may affect raw water quality (SOU, 2015) by e.g. contamination into the water grid (Dryselius, 2012). Land movement, heavy rain and higher flows can also affect important infrastructure for contamination or pollution (SOU, 2015). Examples of infrastructures that can be affected and disrupt the operation of drinking water are pump stations, water treatment plant and wastewater treatment plants (Göransson, Norrman, Larson, Alen, Rosen, 2013; SGI, 2012). Even smaller landslides can cause impacts, such as pipe breakage or damage of the water grid (Dryselius, 2012).
3.1.2 Population and water
3.1.2.1 Population and drinking water An increase in water consumption may affect the supply of drinking water. Kalmar (located in south of Sweden) is an example of a place that has experienced water shortage due to lower water levels in surface and groundwater sources, combined with increased number of consumers (summer tourists) (Länstyrelsen i Kalmar län, 2013). A similar situation has been seen in China were an imbalance of water demand and supply has occurred. The reason is increased water consumption as a result of an increased population and economic development. The underground water is decreasing (a trend since the past 40 years) and the sources will be empty if the trend continues. A case study concludes thou, that the management of pollution and water waste is even more urgent than decreasing water levels (Cui, Huang, Chen & Morse, 2008).
3.1.2.2 Population and wastewater Rapid population growth (15.5-50% increase) in combination with operational constrains has shown to create pressure on wastewater treatment, resulting in poor quality of treated wastewater. In a study, in one of four treatment plants the performance was directly negatively affected by population growth. The other three failed with operational and maintenance problems due to population growth, i.e. indirectly affected by population growth. The majority of the released treated wastewater did not comply with regulatory standards (Teklehaimanot, Kamika, Coetzee & Momba, 2015). A study of the Old Town of Lijiang (a city in China with a rapid growing tourism industry and population) concluded that the crucial pressure on the
18
city was population, tourism, sewage treatment and ecosystem degradation. Although the sewage and wastewater were largely not treated before releasing it into the environment (Cui et al., 2011) the study indicates important factors for pressure.
3.1.3 Means for protection of drinking water
3.1.3.1 Public information and politics Political involvement and/or decisions are necessary for a municipality in Sweden to be able to work with a subject or a problem. Due to this, it is also very important that the public is aware of political issues so that they have the opportunity to engage (Hjerpe, Storbjörk & Alberth, 2014). In a study based on an expert panel discussing the problem of drinking water and climate change it was found that some of the experts on the panel imply that it is important for the public to be aware of what is expected of a society to provide good quality and how to build a resilient and sustainable system. Everyone in the panel agreed that the risk with managing drinking water is the highest in the public and politicians. Furthermore, the main obstacle for politicians is to develop adaptation strategies (Boholm & Prutzer, 2017).
3.1.3.2 Municipal plan process A municipality in Sweden has trough the plan and building law and by the Environmental Code the control of the use of ground and water areas in an overview plan (indicative), and legally binding in the detail plans, rules within areas (Svenskt Vatten, 2007; Åre kommun, 2013), as well as in advance notice and building permits (Åre kommun, 2013). These means are therefore important when it comes to protecting drinking water, by planning where, when and what to construct etc. (Svenskt Vatten, 2007). According to the environmental goal proposition from the government (2000/01:130), one of the strongest ways of securing and protecting water supplies is to create water conservation areas. These areas should be supplemented with water supply plans. Swedish Water (2007) argues that, in order to meet the climate change perspective, water conservation areas should include e.g. areas of watershed and where the risks of contamination has the greatest change of occurring. Furthermore, it is stated that conservation areas should be revised to meet change factors. The investigation by The Governments Official Investigation means also that an important aspect for securing drinking water is the protection of watershed areas for extraction sources (SOU, 2007).
19
3.1.3.3 Preparedness in the water production and treatment The government’s official investigation argues that impacts on water plants, water supplies and distribution facilities that may be distributed from e.g. extreme weather, should be prepared for. It also identifies a need for education and information to handle the pressure of climate change. An example is the need for information to private individuals with private water supply about their risks and relevant protection measures. The report also highlights vulnerability when pipes are placed together, e.g. sewage and water pipes (SOU, 2007). The investigation by Swedish Water (2007, p. 29) summarized factors that should be in place to address major crises:
• Risk insight and knowledge about how different scenarios can escalate • Preventive measures are taken and robust facilities • Availability of spare parts, chemicals and emergency equipment • Information preparedness • Access to various specialist competencies • “Permanent Watch” that captures early warning signals
In cases where a temporary water source, e.g. a tank, is necessary knowledge is generally inadequate and the water amount can only handle small proportions, according to previous experiences (Svenskt Vatten, 2007). To not have access to reserve water source is then a vulnerability (Boholm & Prutzer, 2017; Svenskt Vatten, 2007). Among the Swedish municipalities, 2% have done an exercise that includes all personnel for crises (in terms of drinking water). Chlorine levels necessary to reduce parasites are not allowed in Sweden. Chlorine is also applied to combat viruses, which it has a low effect against: “Novoviruses”, for example, are relatively resistant to chlorine (Svenskt Vatten, 2007). That is further confirmed by WHO (2011), which also added the bacteria Legionella spp. to have a moderate resistance to chorine (Table 3). Possible disinfection methods consist of ozone, UV-light or a sediment step, but the latter mentioned does not reduce the total amount of microorganisms (Svenskt Vatten, 2007). A Swedish study on gastrointestinal illness from drinking water investigated the connection between cleaning technology and illnesses. On average, over the year, most illnesses were correlated to low advanced cleaning technique plants using groundwater. The least amount of illnesses came from water from plants that used advanced technology, e.g. UV-light or Ultra-light (Tornevi, 2016).
20
3.1.3.4 Clear responsibility and cross-sectoral work The Governments Official Investigation (SOU, 2007) identifies, in its investigation of threats and opportunities for drinking water in Sweden, that the official responsibility for drinking water is largely shared between departments, authorities and agencies. Their recommendation to solve this (as they argue constitutes as a problem) is an improved coordination and a gathered responsibility. Swedish Water conducted an investigation of drinking water supply in a changing climate at the request of governments on climate and vulnerability investigation. Their study showed similar results: that communication is insufficient between different departments within a society as well as between communities (municipalities) regarding drinking water (Svenskt Vatten, 2007). Boholm and Prutzer (2017) mean that a clear picture of who is responsible reduces obstacles to adaptability.
3.2. Mapping Åre ski resort’s situation today This section covers the mapping of Åre ski resort and hence its areas related to drinking water.
3.2.1 Tourism development Åre ski resort has gone from being a small village to one of Sweden’s largest mountain and ski resorts (Hedberg, 2012; Widlund, 2016; Nilsson, 2010). The development of such rapid changes can be seen as a rare case (Widlund, 2016). In 1882 the railway station opened, which can be seen as the most influential development for Åre ski resort as it radically changed the tourism conditions. Since then, the village has been a growing tourist destination (Nilsson, 2010) until in the latter half of the 1990s when the population declined, as well as the tourist industry. Shortly thereafter, efforts were made to reverse the trend. In 2007, for example, the Alpine World Ski Championship was arranged. Åre ski resort had 19 000 tourist beds in 1998 and almost 28 000 in 2010, an increase of 3% per year or 45% in total. The number of guest nights has increased since 2003/2004 from 527 800 to 730 000 in 2010/2011, an increase of 38%. Guest nights during periods other than winter have increased from 49 000 in 2004 to 130 000 in 2011, which is more than the double. The distribution of tourists (guest nights) in 2011 was 83% in winter and 17% distributed for the rest of the year (Hedberg, 2012). Year 2015/2016 consisted of 800 000 guest nights, the highest number so far (Åre kommun, 2018). According to Helena Lindahl, (personal communication, 20
21
March 2018), working as a business coordinator at the municipality, the municipality works with the assumption that the actual guest nights are twice as much as the ones presented above. The assumption is based on of the fact that the presented numbers represent only commercial rent and not private.
3.2.2 Drinking Water Åre ski resort is supplied with drinking water from two water plants that pump raw water from two groundwater beds. One is located in Åre and uses a sand bed as an artificial infiltration; the water from this plant is classified as “natural mineral water”. The second plant is located in the opposite side of Åresjön further downstream and pumps raw water directly from the groundwater bed. Both groundwater beds are infiltrated with water from Åresjön, where the capacity is unknown (induced infiltration) (H. Svärd & C. Rudh, personal communication, 15 March 2018). The artificial infiltration process exists for removal of ions and manganese by aeration. The water is not cleaned in either of the plants nor changed in pH, alkalinity or hardness before it reaches the consumer. The second water plant is located just downstream the wastewater plant (M. Van De Griend, personal communication, 23 April 2018). According to Henrik Svärd (personal communication, 10 April 2018), water and sewage manager at Åre municipality, the water production has not experienced any problems of production or illnesses from drinking water. The pipes of the systems, with all equipment such as electricity lines and similar, are placed together underground, where the water pipe is on the top of the sewage pipe. According to Martijn Van De Griend (personal communication, 23 April 2018), engineer at the water department in Åre municipality, water samples for chemicals and bacteria (according to regulation) are taken once a week and it takes about a week to receive the results. If the results are abnormal, there are procedures for managing it, e.g. how information will reach the consumers. Information on how these routines work or more detailed information is however unclear. The recommendations are always preventive, which means that if problems have arisen, the recommendation is to boil water until normal test results are received. Usage of chlorine is prepared in both plants and stored in a near location as well as reserve power. The water system is built on pressure to pump the water to higher
22
latitudes. These pumps will not work on reserve power due to the large level differences, and distribution of power may occur on one level (more or less). Some training has been done; the latest one took place last fall and included e.g. power failure. However, the magnitude and what was included in the training is unclear. Large parts of documentation of operations back in time are missing. The department has until June to fulfil a Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP). According to Water Information System Sweden the chemical statuses of the studied groundwater beds are considered good (low reliability) (VISS, 2018a; VISS, 2018b
3.2.3 Groundwater availability One of the groundwater beds is located in Åre and is the largest one with an area of 5km2. The evaluation of possible groundwater extraction is 5-25 l/s (about 400-2000 m3/d), which is considered good or excellent (VISS, 2018a). The other groundwater bed has an area of 0,55km2 and consists of the same possible extraction rate (VISS, 2018b). Both groundwater beds are based on sand and gravel (VISS, 2018a; VISS, 2018b), which make them, in combination with surrounding soil type (SGU, 2018b), belong to the classification of large groundwater beds (SGU, 2016d). When studying calculated levels for large groundwater magazines in the area where Åre ski resort is based, a different pattern is shown over the years (Appendix B) (note that there is no specific calculations for the studied groundwater beds). The level is periodically a few months with levels “much below normal” and “much above normal” and levels in between them. The level of “much below normal“ has mainly occurred during the summer of June, July and August. No decreasing or increasing long-term trend can be seen. When studying the level pattern regardless of the magnitude (Appendix B) the levels increase in April and start to decrease most in May. Low water levels are found in June and July, and they increase again in August. According to VISS (2018a) the groundwater quality is good (low reliability).
3.2.4 Wastewater Wastewater within the studied area is received in a treatment plant located +377 RH70. Treated water is released in Indalsälven (downstream Åresjön) and an automatic sample station exists in the outlet. Under high pressure (during high season), partial wastewater is sent to another infiltration station
23
(treatment plant) located further downstream and on the other side of Indalsälven. The sewage system (and water production) has old grids that cause leakage in and out. Leakages into the grid are dependent on e.g. snowmelt and precipitation. It is necessary to broaden the wastewater during high pressure. A new alarm of outflows (broadens) has recently been installed and samples in each outflow are taken. Maintenance work within the sewage department has begun this summer. The pump station connected to the smaller groundwater bed is located in the basement of the treatment plant, though highly separated (M. Van De Griend, personal communication, 23 April 2018). According to Veronika Viström, (personal communication, 26 April 2018), environmental inspector at Åre municipality, no inventory has been made of private sewage systems and a clear register of details is therefore missing over the study area. There exist many common facilities for private wastewater (sewages) in Åre ski resort due to a large number of tourist villages. She confirms the statement made by M. Van De Griend, that both drinking water and sewage pipes and grids are old. The private sewage system has the potential to leak and thereby have an effect on drinking water. Åre municipality has control over the private sewers that are being emptied on sludge (by them). A map over these sewers (Ö. Norum, personal communication, 23 April 2018) shows that they are located along Indalsälven, which is where the population lives.
3.2.5 Åresjön The ecological status of Åresjön is unsatisfactory (low reliability). The chemical status does not reach a good level regarding mercury and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDW) (medium reliability). Both of these substances are common in Swedish surface water sources. However, most factors are not analysed for Åresjön (VISS, 2018c). Indalsälvens Water Quality Association performs measurements in Indalsälven (which also has the goal of keeping Indalsälven in drinking water quality) (Indalsälvens Vattenvårdsförbund, 2018). Kullenbron is one place where tests are taken and is located approximately 16km downstream from Åre (in Indalsälven) and can indicate values for Åresjön. Relevant drinking water parameters available are analysed, including phosphorus due to the result of the literature study. Until 2004, measurements were taken in April and then in March, hence the
24
appearance of the following figures. The Food Administration’s regulation on drinking water quality is used as a reference value for this study (Livsmedelsverkets författningssamling [LIV], SFS 2017:3). pH measures the acidity or basicity of water. The limited value for drinking water to be considered good is 10,5 (Figure 5) (LIV, SFS 2017:3). All pH values at Kullenbron are lower than that.
Figure 5. pH at Kullenbron, 16km downstream from Åre, from 1998-2017 (Indalsälvens Vattenvårdsförbund, 2018). Turbidity measures particles in the water where higher values give deterioration of visibility. The particles can consist of microorganisms, organic material and/or inorganic material (small mineral grains) (Jonsson, 2006). Limits for drinking water are 0,5FNU for outgoing water and 1,5FNU at the user (LIV, SFS 2017:3). The majority of measured values in figure 6 are below 1,5 and higher than 0,5. Two values (2002 and 2014) are higher than 1,5. An increase of turbidity has not occurred since 1998.
Figure 6. Turbidity at Kullenbron, 16km downstream from Åre, from 1998- 2017 presented in FNU (Indalsälvens Vattenvårdsförbund, 2018).
0246810
February March April August October
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
00,51
1,52
2,5
February March April August October
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
25
Phosphorus is not mentioned in regards to qualities of drinking water (LIV, SFS 2017:3). But the classification of high total Phosphorus (tot-P) in lakes in Sweden is <12,5 (µg/l) (Naturvårdsverket, 2007). The tot-P levels at Kullenbron (Figure 7) show a varied pattern over the years and all except for one measurement in October 2000 does not exceed the limit. This indicates that there is no problem with algae bloom or eutrophication in Åresjön.
Figure 7. Total Phosphorus (Tot-P) at Kullenbron, 16km downstream Åre, from 1998-2017, presented in µg/l. The columns with value 2 represent < 2. The microorganisms mentioned in Food Administration’s regulation (LIV, SFS 2017:2) for drinking water are Escherichia coli (E.coli), Intestinal enterococcus and Coliform bacteria. Limits for drinking water are 10 numbers/100ml for Coliform bacteria and 0 number/100ml for E.coli and Intestinal enterococcus (LIV, SFS 2017:3). E.coli is a bacterium found only in warm blooded animals (intestinal), unlike Coliform bacteria, which may also come from other sources, such as surface water (interflow) and other types of bacteria (Jonsson, 2006). E.coli has been measured at Kullenbron in varying amounts from <1–1400 numbers /100ml which is not in accordance with good qualities for drinking water, see figure 8.
0
5
10
15
February March April August October
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
26
Figure 8. E.coli. at Kullenbron, 16km downstream Åre, from 1998-2017, presented in amount / 100ml. The columns that reach value 40 represent higher values (listed in annual order); 95, 70, 60, 350, 1400, 420, 200, 200. Coliform bacteria exceed the limits of recommended levels every year that it has been tested for. The highest value is up to 1610 amount /100ml, see figure 9. The majority of each measurement for both E.coli and Coliform bacteria finds a variety of the bacteria’s each year and many of the measured values greatly exceed the limit. Data is missing for Intestinal enterococcus.
Figure 9. Coliform bacteria at Kullenbron, 16km downstream Åre, from 1998-2017, presented in amount / 100ml. The columns that reach value 100 represent higher values (listed in annual order); 110, 170, 210, 101, 200, 490, 1610, 420, 850, 380, 200.
0
10
20
30
40
February March April August October
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0102030405060708090100
February March April August October
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
27
The limit for nitrate in drinking water is 50mg/l NO3 (LIV, SFS 2017:3). All measured nitrate values in Kullenbron are well below the limit (Indalsälvens Vattenvårdsförbund, 2018). The nearby area around Åresjön (meaning 30 meters from the edge in the water level) is classified as unsatisfactory (medium confidence) due to the fact that 44% of the area consists of active land and/or landscaped areas (VISS, 2018c).
3.2.6 Water availability Åresjön The water regime (the water level variation and its changes) is high (low confidence) (VISS, 2018c). The water level follows a cycle over the year between levels +372 RH70 (winter) and +375 RH70 (May-June). This is when a combination of rain and snowmelt occurs that creates the highest water level. In 1995 it had the highest level of +375,95 RH70. The municipality has made an assumption, that if the water level rises a few decimetres from its highest level, a new water line will be created which will keep the water level at the same level as today in Åresjön (Åre kommun, 2005). Åre ski resort produces artificial snow by pumping water from Åresjön. The maximum uptake is today 3,4 million litres per year. The effects of the level of water in the Indalsälven are due to the uptake, according to estimates, very small (Öhd, 2015). Åresjön has a low residence time, as it is a part of Indalsälven that has a high flow (SMHI, 2018b).
3.2.7 Harmful substances According to Örjan Norum (personal communication 18 April 2018), environmental inspector at Åre municipality, the possible sources of leakage of harmful substances leakage in Åre ski resort consist of: district heating stations (oil), gas stations (ethanol, gas, oil), skisystem (gas, oil), Holiday Club (hydrochloric acid (fluid) and calciumhypoclorite (soild), old gas stations (gas, oil) and similar potential sources. Jämtland County has identified potential sources for such leakages, where the majority of the mentioned sources are included. The areas are mainly located in the centre of Åre and Duved (Länstyrelsen Jämtlands län, 2018b).
3.2.8 Landslides Åre ski resort has experienced multiple landslides, which caused major damages and consequences (Wilén, Eurenius, & Anderberg, 1993; Malmström & Åberg, 2003; Löfgren, 2010; Danielsson, 2012; Länstyrelsen, 2013). Six stability studies have been carried out in the area of Åre municipality, where
28
all but one includes Åre ski resort and three focus directly on an area within Åre ski resort. A study in 2013 concluded that there were significant risks for landslides, especially in central Åre and Tegefjäll/Duved, with individual conditions throughout all of Åre ski resort. A study in 2018 further concluded that there are landslide and flooding problems in Åre ski resort and proposed further investigation and prevention measures (Andersson & Lundström, 2018). Most landslides take place in late spring when it´s raining the most, but it has also occurred in March (Danielsson, 2012). The Swedish Geological Institute has identified areas that have great potential for landslides: the largest area is above Åre and is thereby above the largest groundwater bed and Åresjön (Länstyrelsen, 2013). Some water sources that drain the mountain in Åre have lost their biological functions due to a lot of sludge transport (Svensson, 2015).
3.2.9 The municipal plan process An investigation by SVT (Swedish Television AB) studied 100 detailed plans (2005-2015) in Åre municipality and identified two clear Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA). The investigation furthermore stated that the county of Jämtland did not “permission test” existing building in Åre (Leijman, 2017). The latest overview plan for Åre municipality was adopted in 2017 (Åre kommun, 2012). For Åre ski resort there is also a detailed overview plan, adopted in 2005 (Åre kommun, 2005). These two plans should be updated in each mandate period (every four year) to include correct information and reflect accurate political values (Åre kommun, 2012). The detailed overview plan has not been revised since it has been adopted (Åre kommun, 2005). There is a water and drainage plan for the studied area (Åre kommun, 2012). The water conservation areas within the studied area are divided into three areas; primary, secondary and third. The extraction sources for the groundwater beds exist in the primary areas, the secondary is located around the first and the third are over watersheds. No water supply plans exist (H. Svärd & C. Rudh, personal communication, 15 March 2018). When studying the overview plan, it shows that water conservation areas should be prioritized when exploitation is to take place and that drinking water sources thus have received a clearer focus. A description or guideline of what is meant by “prioritized” is missing. No further description or protections of the second and third water conservations areas are mentioned.
29
The primary water conservation areas are relatively well protected against new buildings; it is possible to enlarge existing buildings. This also applies to the surrounding area around a large water protected area (unclear if the last mentioned regards Åre ski resort as it is a general description and is not further mentioned in the detailed overview plan). Increased demand should be on research on hydrology, storm water management and geo technics in every plan and exploitation. The overview plan states that the drinking water sources are “seriously threatened by microbial affected water” and the threats originate from livestock, poor storm water management, private sewers and poor function within the water treatment plants and grids. Work should be done to reduce levels of released contaminated water by improvements of water treatment plants, supervision and of private sewage systems and actions to reduce them (Åre kommun, 2012). When studying the detailed overview plan, water conservation areas are not mentioned. The plan concludes that the two groundwater beds have a good quality and quantity. Furthermore, it is stated that the amount of groundwater is “almost indefinite because of natural conditions” and thereby extraction can increase. The plan means that the extraction sources for the groundwater beds are protected, as they are located outside the village. The microbiological factor is not mentioned, and the plan lacks concrete protection of drinking water. Furthermore, clear explanations and directive for what is actually allowed is missing, it can be interpreted as wanted guidelines that can be understood differently (Åre kommun, 2012).
3.3 Drinking water in Åre ski resort in relation to the DPSIR framework Based on the results from the literature study (Paragraph 3.1) and the mapping of Åre ski resort’s situation today (Paragraph 3.2), the most important factors regarding drinking water factors (which fulfils the parameters in table 1) have been identified for Åre ski resort. These factors have been categorized according to the DPSIR framework and are illustrated in a conceptual model (Figure 10).
30
Figure 10. A conceptual model based on the DPSIR framework showing identified factors with the greatest importance for drinking water in Åre ski resort. “Sense of place” refers to soft values such as aesthetical and also includes inhabitants and seasonal workers.
3.4 Scenario analysis Based on the identified factors in the “drivers” category (Figure 10) an analysis was made for changes in “climate” and “tourism”. The conceptual model (Figure 10) was used to describe the outcome of the two scenarios (what the changes of the factors mean), where the factors in the other categories have been evaluated and presented in a composite result. When data has been available, it has been used in the evaluation of the factors. Otherwise, the changes have been estimated based on the literature study (Paragraph 3.1) and the mapping of Åre ski resort (Paragraph 3.2).
3.4.1 Climate change scenario
3.4.1.1 Expected changes in the climate Predicted changes in climate parameters for Åre ski resort are presented in the following tables in combination with an explanation and analysis. Some reference values were divided into two periods; 1961-1990 and 1991-2013.
ClimateTourismGravity
SurfacerunoffEvapotranspirationErosionLandslidesWaterconsumptionWastewaterproduction
MicrobiologicalandchemicalwaterqualityingroundwaterandsurfacewaterWateravailabilitySedimentloadinsurfacewater
WaterbornediseasesNaturalwaterpurificationWastewatertreatmentTourismSenseofplace
ProtectionofdrinkingwaterintheplanprocessRobustandpreparedwaterproductionandwastewatertreatmentAwarenessamongthepublicandpoliticiansCleardivisionofresponsibilitiesCrosssectionalworkRestrictionsofartificialsnowproductionMonitorwaterlevels
DRIVERS
PRESSURES
STATE
IMPACTS
RESPONSES
31
1961-1990 could be seen as the most representative reference based on the assumption that climate change has affected the results in 1991-2013. The result is based on a lowest and a highest value. As the result is presented in change, the second value can therefore be of lower range than the first. December-February represent winter, March-May represent spring, June-August summer and September-November fall. The definition for heat wave, in this scenarios, is referred as the year’s longest continuous period with a daytime mean temperature above 20°c (SMHI, 2018a).
TEMPERATURE Table 4. Predicted changes in climate parameters regarding temperature based on climate scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 compared to the reference year 1961-2013 in Åre ski resort (SMHI, 2018a).
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
2021-2050 2069-2098 2021-2050 2069-2098
Mean temp. (year) + 0-1°C + 1-2°C + 0-1°C + 3-4°C
Mean temp (winter) + 0-2°C + 0-4°C + 0-2°C + 2-6°C
Mean temp. (spring) + 2°C + 2°C + 2°C + 6-4°C
Mean temp. (summer) + 2°C + 4-2°C + 2°C + 6°C
Mean temp. (fall) + 2°C + 2°C + 2°C + 4°C
Heat wave + 1 days + 1-3 days + 1-2 days + 1-6 days
In both scenarios, average temperatures and heat waves are increased throughout the year as well in each season, with a higher increase in 2069. The highest temperature changes (increase) occur in the summer, spring and winter in 2069. The average temperature in winter has the lowest possible change, except for RCP8.5 in 2069-2098. When putting together the results from the seasons with the yearly mean temp as well as from the scenarios (which show slightly different results) an increase with 1-2°C can be expected from both scenarios until 2050 and an increase with 2-5°C in 2069.
32
PRECIPITATION Table 5. Predicted changes in climate parameters regarding precipitation based on climate scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 compared to the specified reference year 1961-2013 or given reference period in Åre ski resort (SMHI, 2018a).
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
2021-2050 2069-2098 2021-2050 2069-2098
Annual mean precipitation
1961-1990 + 75-150mm +150mm + 75mm + 225-300mm
1991-2013 + 75mm +150-75mm +75-0mm + 225mm
Mean precipitation (winter) + 0mm + 30-60mm + 30mm + 90-60mm
Mean precipitation (spring) + 0-30mm + 30mm + 30mm + 30-90mm
Mean precipitation (summer)
1961-1990 + 30mm + 30-60mm + 30mm + 60mm
1991-2013 + 0-30mm + 0mm + 0-30mm + 30mm
Mean precipitation (fall)
1961-1990 + 30mm + 60-30mm + 30mm + 60mm
1991-2013 + 30-60mm + 60mm + 30-60mm + 60-90mm
Max daily precipitation
1961-1990 + 2mm + 3mm + 1mm + 5mm
1991-2013 + 0-1mm + 1-2mm -1-0 mm + 3-4mm
Number of days with precipitation over 10mm
1961-1990 + 3 days + 9-6 days + 3 days + 9 days
1991-2013 0 days + 6-3 days 0 days + 6 days
Annual average precipitation increases in each outcome. The largest increase occurs 2069-2098 for scenario RCP8.5 in each season. A somewhat higher increase in the fall can be seen in both scenarios, with the exception of RCP8.5 2069-2098, where each season may have the same increase, but the lowest values imply summer. Maximum daily precipitation indicates the highest increase in heavy precipitation in RCP8.5 2069-2098 and a decrease may occur in 2021-2050. The numbers of days with precipitation over 10 mm have the highest increase in the second half of the century for both scenarios. When putting together the scenarios for the yearly mean temp the increase will be approx. 75-150mm until 2050 and increase with approx. 150-225mm in 2069.
33
FLOODING Table 6. Predicted percentage changes in climate parameters for floods based on climate scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 compared to the reference year 1963-1992 in Åre ski resort (SMHI, 2018a).
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
2021-2050 2069-2098 2021-2050 2069-2098
Local 100-year runoff -5-5% -5-5% -5-5% -5-5%
Total 10-year runoff -5-5% -10- -5% -5-5% -20- -15%
Total 100-year runoff -5-5% -5-5% -5-5% -20- -15%
Selected parameters represent flood indications where “local 100-year run off” refers to local runoff with a return time of 100-years. “Total” includes the total daily average runoff with the specified return time. The local 100-year runoff results show no rapid changes, except for a decrease in 2069. The total 10-year runoff parameters indicate a decreasing change in 2069 for both scenarios with a higher decrease for RCP8.5. The overall results indicate that normally high flows will be more or less the same as today except if RCP8.5 occurs: then the total flooding will rapidly increase in 2069.
SOIL MOISTURE Table 7. Predicted changes in soil moisture (amount of days with low soil moisture) based on climate scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 compared to specified reference year in Åre ski resort (SMHI, 2018a).
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
2021-2050 2069-2098 2021-2050 2069-2098
Soil moisture 1961-1990 + 5 days + 15 days + 10 days + 20 days
1991-2013 0 days +10 days +5 days +15 days
The amount of days with low soil moisture increase with an exception for scenario RCP4.5 for 2021-2050 compared with reference year 1991-2013. The result indicates a higher increase of days with a drier ground soil in 2069.
34
SNOW COVER Table 8. Predicted changes in climate parameters regarding snow cover based on climate scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 compared to specified reference year in Åre ski resort (SMHI, 2018a).
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
2021-2050 2069-2098 2021-2050 2069-2098
Changed snow cover, max water content
1963-1992 -35- -25% <-40% -40- -30% <-40%
Number of days with snow cover, at least 5mm water content
1961-1990 >0- -20 days -20-40 days >0- -20 days -20-60 days
1991-2013 >0 days -20 days >0 days -20- -40 days
Number of days with snow cover, at least 20mm water content
1961-1990 -20 days -20-40 days -20-40 days -60 days
1991-2013 -20-0 days -20 days -20 days -60- -40 days
The snow cover with maximum water content is reduced in large amounts, where <-40 represents the lowest predicted value, with lowest amount of water content. The numbers of days with at least 20 mm water content decrease in each outcome. The trend for 5 mm is also decreasing. The results indicate a total less water content in snow and a reduced amount of days with snow cover.
3.4.1.2 The outcome of the climate change scenario based on the DPSIR model (Figure 10) As annual average precipitation increases in Åre ski resort and a more intense precipitation (days with precipitation of 10mm per/day) is expected (Table 5), surface runoff is likely to increase. As the average temperature increases (especially during summer time) (Table 4) and soil moisture decreases (Table 7), evapotranspiration is likely to increase during warmer periods in summer. It can also occur during the extending number of days with heat waves (mainly RCP8.5 in 2069). Based on Åre ski resort’s issues with erosion and landslides, the climate changes (high increase of average precipitation, increase mean temperature and a shift in precipitation from snow to rain) will increase in larger magnitudes. An increased surface runoff further increases the magnitude of erosion and landslides. These changes will decrease the microbiological and chemical water quality in groundwater and surface water, and increase the sediment load in Åresjön. There further exists an increased risk of leakage of chemicals and other harmful substances, due
35
to an expected increase of heavy rain, more frequent precipitation and a dryer ground at Åre ski resort. These substances have the potential to reach both Åresjön and the groundwater beds and are further distributed by an increased amount of runoff. Disturbances in the water plant and/or leakage of chemicals due to fire is unlikely as only one scenario (RCP8.5 2021-2050) indicates that. Table 9 shows the expected changes in water level in large groundwater beds in the Åre ski resort area, based on the different climate scenarios. The result indicates a slight increase in water levels in 2069. Table 9. The table presents the predicted change in slow changing groundwater beds based on a scale of unchanged, small, medium and large increases from reference year 1961-1990 (SGU, 2015).
RCP4.5 2021-2050
RCP4.5 2069-2098
RCP8.5 2021-2050
RCP8.5 2069-2098
Unchanged Small increase Unchanged Small increase
An increase of “waterborne diseases” is expected which is highly dependent on the “robustness and preparedness in the water production and wastewater treatment” as they determined the extent of the problem. As the groundwater beds are expected to increase in 2069 (Table 9) the “unsaturated zones” will decrease. This will have an impact of the “natural purification of water” (groundwater), which can further increase “waterborne diseases” (to a small affect). An increase in “water availability” in Åresjön also increases the risk for “waterborne diseases”, as the water will receive more pathogens or microorganisms due to the classified unsatisfied area around the lake. The location of the wastewater treatment plant could be vulnerable as the highest water level today has been +375,95 RH70 and the plant is based at +377RH70. However, the expected flood changes indicate smaller changes, with a decrease in 2069, resulting in a reduced vulnerability. The expected changes in the rainfall for Åre ski resort (both intensities and amounts) and changes in precipitation (from snow to rain), will lead to an increased need for broaden wastewater. This could in turn risk the groundwater and increase the risk for pollution of Åresjön. That can, again, directly be addressed by a “robust and prepared wastewater treatment plant and system”. A higher risk of DBPs in
36
drinking water will exist, due to the use of chemicals when the water quality is poor (e.g. surface water), which is causing an increased pressure on the “wastewater treatment”. The “tourism” (impact) and the “sense of place” will decrease, as it is dependent of the changed factors to exist. An example of a dependence is a worsened quality regarding microorganisms in Åresjön which impacts the willingness to bathe and perform activities in the water, or create a bad reputation for Åre ski resort due to problems with drinking water of poor quality. The “awareness among the public and politicians” need to increase in relation to a changing climate as more consequences are expected, but mainly because their awareness is of high importance for prioritization of how a municipality will work. “Clear division of responsibilities and cross sectional work” changes the system of handling the problem or subject and is therefore important for all mentioned changed factors, as they all are part of the problem (drinking water). The “restrictions of artificial snow production“ will be of high importance as the need for more artificial snow (to still be a ski resort in the same extent as today) when the amount of snow cover and days with snow decreases. “Erosion” and changes in “water availability” (water levels) is also dependent on the artificial snow as it causes more surface runoff. “Monitoring water levels” is in this scenario important for both Åresjön and the groundwater levels. Changes in the water levels in Åresjön will cause changes in the degree of “surface affected” groundwater (as infiltration area changes). In case of flooding (small chance), there is a risk of intrusion, both in the groundwater beds and in the plants, which could have large impacts. Groundwater levels are expected to increase in 2069 and hence the unsaturated part which partly determined the quality of the water, makes monitoring important. This climate change scenario will be more intense in 2069 (if nothing else is mentioned), as the majority of the climate parameters (e.g. precipitation) consist of a large increases/decreases (changes) at that time. An overview of the changes in this scenario can be seen in figure 11.
3.4.2 Tourism development scenario
3.4.2.1 Tourism forecast The yearly curve of guest nights in Åre ski resort has gone from a clear upward trend to more stagnant (Åre kommun, 2018). The Alpine World Ski Championship will be held in 2019 in Åre (Svenska skidförbundet, 2016) and
37
several tourist beds are under construction and/or are being planned for (Åre Sadeln, 2018; Rödkullen, 2018). This indicates a continued increasing trend,and that the peak has not yet been reached. Åre ski resort also has a vision of becoming Europe’s most attractive and sustainable alpine year-round destination and envisions reaching 1 100 000 guest nights in 2035 (Åre kommun, 2016b). Based on this, an assumption is made, that Åre ski resort is at the consolidation stage today (see appendix A, for more explanation of Butler’s theory that is used). The most important factor for which the next stage Åre ski resort will enter depends on time based on the yearly guest nights chart (Åre kommun, 2018). Åre ski resort may only have entered the consolidation stage and it can take a while until it enters the next stage (the stagnation stage could still happen in 2100). However, the trend (the situation of present time), suggests that it will follow curve A: rejuvenation. That is possible because the majority of tourists visit Åre ski resort during winter in present time (Paragraph 3.2.1) and efforts are being made to create a destination to visit year round. Åre ski resort can also be considered to have a unique environment, due to being near and have an easy access to mountain areas (nature areas) from infrastructure (Åre kommun, 2012). That can be interpreted as a long time attractiveness, which is one demand to follow curve A). However, the natural resources are not endless and the ecosystem is degraded today, e.g. in Åresjön (Paragraph 3.2.5). Nevertheless, Åre ski resort has the potential to follow each curve of Butler’s model (Appendix A) and the path depends on how Åre ski resort treats and/or protects its ecosystem. A continuous increase of tourism in the near future is expected and the development follows the trends and conditions (ecosystems) of present time, which indicated that it will follow curve A or B. If it is assumed that Åre ski resort will reach its goal of 1 100 000 guest nights in 2035 and follow the same development rate to the top of the stagnation cure (see appendix A) which occurs 2054 and stagnates for 10 years and then follows the curve B to 2100 at half-speed as earlier. The development rate (based on the vision) is an increase of 16 000 guest nights/year. The result is then 1 692 000 guest nights in 2100. Actual guest nights (the assumption that the municipality works with) is then double; 3 384 000 guest nights in 2100 (Appendix C). An overview of the changes in this scenario can be seen in figure 11.
38
3.4.2.2 The outcome of the tourism development scenario based on the DPSIR model (Figure 10) The expected rapid and large increase of number of tourist to 2100 will increase the level of erosion and the amount, as well as magnitude, of landslides as the tourism industry is connected to exploitation such as new construction of building and clear cutting to create slopes. The use of the ground (and water) is also more exposed, as activities (e.g. downhill biking and hiking) are the major reasons for tourist to visit Åre ski resort. Both the “water consumption” and “wastewater production” will increase in relation to the number of tourists. Based on today’s water production and the forecast of the tourism development the water consumption will be 4 018m3/day in 2100 (Appendix D). The water consumption (or production) will bring a decrease in the “water availability” of the groundwater beds as the extraction capacities are between 800-4000m3/day, which means a maximum use in 2100 during high water levels. However, for this calculation the production is distributed evenly over the year, which means that the actual rate is higher due to the variations in number of tourists (if not the tourist will become totally equal over the year). It is difficult to determine how long an overuse is possible because infiltration capacities are unknown. However, since the magazines are large, it will take time before they will be empty: roughly 33 years in 2100 (calculated with no input of new water (Appendix F)). A deterioration of the “microbiological and chemical water quality in groundwater and surface water” will occur as particles (e.g. humus) will reach Åresjön as it is often the end destination, which increases the sediment load in Åresjön and also worsens the quality. The increase of wastewater production increases the need for broadening the system and microbiological particles will increase the risk for ending up in Åresjön and groundwater beds. Such changes in the state of “microbiological water quality (both surface and groundwater)” will increase “waterborne diseases” as an increase of pathogens can reach the drinking water both trough Åresjön and directly to groundwater beds. Pathogens levels in Åresjön also cause a risk for infection when swimming. A decrease of the “water availability” in the groundwater beds increases the natural water purification, which decreases the risk of pathogens reaching the groundwater beds. The “wastewater treatment plant” will be under higher pressure due to an increase of NOMs and the amount of wastewater. The “tourism” (state) and the “sense of place”
39
will both decrease as a worsened quality and quantity of the surface and groundwater is dependent for its existence. For example, the occurrence of “landslides” affects the possibility for building projects, but may also cause concern for residential areas already in sensitive grounds for landslides. The plan process has a high importance to the tourist development as it determines the options for its development. By protecting the drinking water an increase of the tourism can occur and causing less impacts. The planning process also minimizes the effects from erosion and landslides as it can protect sensitive areas and decide e.g. where and how to build but also suggest preventive measures. That in turn will minimize the mentioned effects in the category “state”. The number of “waterborne diseases” is therefore of high importance in the planning process as it is connected to the above-mentioned factors (causing a smaller loop within the conceptual model). The decreasing tourism and the sense of place are also connected to this loop. The “robustness and preparedness of the water production and wastewater treatment” have a strong minimization of the “water consumption” but is dependent on the “water availability” depending on how well it functions under changes and higher pressures. “Monitor water levels” includes in this scenario to monitor groundwater levels, which is a part of the water plants preparedness. The “awareness among the public and politicians” increases as the number of tourist increase, as tourists might not take the same responsibility or actions during vacations compared to home locations. An increase of the “awareness” minimizes all mentioned factors, as it (just as clear division of responsibilities and cross sectional work) is a more general response that changes more the total system or norms. The “restrictions of artificial snow production” becomes more important if slopes or the length of the season increases as the number of tourists increase which means an increase of artificial snow to expand the system. An overview of the changes in this scenario can be seen in figure 11.
40
Figure 11. The outcome of the scenario analysis where red represent changes for the changes in the climate and blue for tourism, presented in the conceptual model based on the DPSIR framework showing identified factors with the greatest importance for drinking water in Åre ski resort. + indicates an increase and – indicates a decrease/deterioration.
3.5 Vulnerability assessment To identify and evaluate vulnerabilities, the listed factors in figure 11 and 12 have been quantified based on their importance for affecting drinking water (quality and amount) at Åre ski resort. It has been based on the findings in previous sections, especially from figure 12, which shows the result of the scenario analysis in relationships based on the DPSIR framework. Three scenarios are used: business-as-usual, climate change, and tourism development. The quantification was based on classifying the factors into four different degrees of importance. The result is shown in table 10 followed by more analysis of their importance as well as estimated points (which are not already mentioned in the scenario analysis (Paragraph 3.4)).
Climate+Tourism+Gravity
Surfacerunoff+Evapotranspiration+Erosion++Landslides++Waterconsumption+Wastewaterproduction+
Microbiologicalandchemicalwaterqualityingroundwaterandsurfacewater--Wateravailability+-Sedimentloadinsurfacewater++
Waterbornediseases++Naturalwaterpurification-+Wastewatertreatment++Tourism--Senseofplace--
Protectionofdrinkingwaterintheplanprocess++Robustandpreparedwaterproductionandwastewatertreatment++Awarenessamongthepublicandpoliticians++Cleardivisionofresponsibilities++Crosssectionalwork++Restrictionsofartificialsnowproduction++Monitorwaterlevels++
DRIVERS
PRESSURES
STATE
IMPACTS
RESPONSES
41
Table 10. Quantified factors for their importance for drinking water quality and amount in Åre ski resort based on figure 10 and 11, hence paragraph 3.4, as well as a scenario (business-as-usual, where no changes has been considerate). 1 = small, 2 = moderate, 3 = considerable, 4 = severe and X = not quantifiable. M.bio stands for microbiological.
Business-as-usual
Climate change scenario
Tourist development scenario
TOTAL Type of Factor
PRESSURES
Surface runoff 1 3 X 4 Water
Evapotranspiration 1 1 X 2 Water
Erosion 2 3 4 9 M.bio
Landslides 2 3 4 9 M.bio
Water consumption 2 X 4 6 Water
Wastewater production 2 X 4 6 M.bio
STATE
Microbiological and chemical water quality in groundwater and surface water
2 (Åresjön) 3 4 9 M.bio
Water availability 1 2 (2069) 3 6 Water
Sediment load in surface water
2 4 3 9 M.bio
IMPACTS
Waterborne diseases 1 3 4 8 M.bio
Natural water purification 3 2 1 6 M.bio
Wastewater treatment 2 4 4 10 M.bio
Tourism X X X X X
Sense of place X X X X X
RESPONSES
Protection of drinking water in the plan process
2 4 4 10 Water. M.bio
Robust and prepared water production and wastewater treatment
2 4 4 10 Water. M.bio
Awareness among the public and politicians
1 2 2 5 Water. M.bio
Clear division of responsibilities
1 2 2 5 Water. M.bio
Cross sectional work 2 3 3 8 Water. M.bio
Restriction of artificial snow 2 3 3 8 Water
Monitor water levels 1 2 3 6 Water
42
“Wastewater treatment”, “plan process” and “robust and prepared water production and wastewater treatment” have the highest total points (Table 10). This indicates that they are the most vulnerable factors when compiling business-as-usual, the tourism development scenario and the climate change scenario. If the total points in table 10 are placed into the conceptual model (Figure 12) it is possible to see the weakest “loop”. Thus, the highest points in each category constitute a loop and identify a subsystem as the most vulnerable. This sub-loop includes the factors: “erosion”, “landslides”, “microbiological and chemical water quality in groundwater and surface water” and “sediment load in surface water” (Figure 12).
Figure 12. The total points for quantification of the identified important factors in the conceptual model in relation to the DPSIR framework. Looking separately at business-as-usual, the most vulnerable part is the factor “natural water purification”. This is because the drinking water in Åre ski resort is untreated and unchanged groundwater, which means that the ecosystem is providing good quality of drinking water. However, it is uncertain if Åre ski resort’s drinking water system meets the study definition of sustainable drinking water systems (Paragraph 1.2). This is based on the fact that “normal” illnesses (not outbreaks) may exist in correlation with
ClimateTourismGravity
Surfacerunoff4Evapotranspiration2Erosion9Landslides9Waterconsumption6Wastewaterproduction6
Microbiologicalandchemicalwaterqualityingroundwaterandsurfacewater9Wateravailability6Sedimentloadinsurfacewater9
Waterbornediseases8Naturalwaterpurification6Wastewatertreatment10TourismXSenseofplaceX
Protectionofdrinkingwaterintheplanprocess10Robustandpreparedwaterproductionandwastewatertreatment10Awarenessamongthepublicandpoliticians5Cleardivisionofresponsibilities5Crosssectionalwork8Restrictionsofartificialsnowproduction8Monitorwaterlevels6
DRIVERS
PRESSURES
STATE
IMPACTS
RESPONSES
43
current precipitation (and current sewage factors) (as shown in Tornevi’s study (2015)). Furthermore, the Tornevi (2015) study shows that most illnesses (average over the year) derived from low technology plants with groundwater as raw water, which matches the Åre ski resort’s drinking water system. The mandatory measurements (performed by the water plants in Åre ski resort) do not include viruses, and tests for E.coli (used as an indicator for fresh faeces) do not indicate the actual rate of infection, as this is further dependent on types of pathogens. This problem can also be applied to chemicals, which can be more difficult to detect and more difficult to link to drinking water (diseases or other potential affects). Water production today (which represents 2009m3/day on average over the year (Appendix D)) indicates a potential for overuse in winter (capacity 800-4000m3/day), as the distribution of tourists accounts for 83% in the winter months (a much higher number of production then). As the groundwater beds are classified as large (slow response time) a reduced level will be more severe and the identification will be prolonged (if no continuous measurements are made). The lowest levels of extraction capacity can reflect the indication that the water levels are well below normal (Appendix B) and overuse at that point would lead to a sinking groundwater bed, which aggravates the shortcomings. However, since the calculations are simplified and extraction capacities general, “water production” got point 2 instead of potentially 3. Looking separately at the points for the climate change scenario, the three highest points are the same as in the total points plus “sediment load” (which is due to increased surface runoff). It is also true for the tourism development scenario but it contains more factors: “erosion”, “water consumption”, “wastewater production”, “microbiological and chemical water quality in groundwater and surface water” and “waterborne diseases”. The tourism development scenario has the most amounts of total points and can therefore be seen as the largest driver. The result further shows that the most vulnerable parts of the municipal drinking water system in Åre ski resort (regarding both surface water and groundwater) is expected to consist of microbiological factors. Wastewater (sewage) combined with wastewater production and increased precipitation represents the largest part for which pathogens are responsible for waterborne diseases (addressed by “robust and prepared water production and wastewater treatment“ and “protection of drinking water in the plan
44
process”). According to the model (Figure 10), wastewater represents the main source of waterborne diseases. The cleaned sewage water from Vik being released to Indalsälven (a second water conservation area) and one groundwater bed being located slightly downstream, points to the importance of a good functioning plant with little potential of releasing poorly cleaned water. Possible effects on raw water are considered to be high as the groundwater beds are induced with water from Åresjön and the infiltration rate is unknown. Because the unsaturated zone is missing in induced infiltration, the potential for the influence of the raw water increases. Since the measurements taken in the water plants are prolonged with a week, drinking water will reach and be used by the consumer until deterioration of quality is detected. In other words, people will get sick before the crew in the water plant are aware that the water has poor quality. This applies mainly to situations where no visible damage has occurred (e.g. landslides causing pipe breakage), as boiling of drinking water is recommended when more visible problems occur.
3.6 Adaptation solutions The adaptation solutions are based on the points in table 10, where the most identified factors are quantified for their importance of drinking water. It is the highest points in each scenario (business-as-usual, climate change and tourist development) as well as the combined total results that constituted as the basis for the presented solutions. The most effective adaptation solutions consider changes in the “protection of drinking water in the plan process” and “robustness and preparedness in the municipal water production and wastewater treatment” as they are identified as the most vulnerable factors, both in total and separately (not for business-as-usual situation). The factor “wastewater treatment” addresses directly the “robust and prepared water production and wastewater treatment” and is therefore included in the factor. It is through the planning process the situation affecting drinking water (including Åresjön) can be addressed and it is the robustness and preparedness that can help meet expected changes.
45
Robust and prepared water production and wastewater treatment • Increase knowledge of:
Infiltration capacity for Åresjön to groundwater beds and precipitation to groundwater beds (to determined actual effects on raw water from microbiological particles). Unsaturated zones above the groundwater beds (to determined actual effects on raw water from microbiological particles). The water level in the groundwater beds (to determined when an actual overuse has potential to occur in relation to production).
• Daily measurements of the turbidity of the raw water in the water plants (to immediately indicate microorganisms, pathogens, which significantly reduces the risk of consumers becoming ill).
• Installation of UV light or Ultra-filter in the water plants (to treat the raw water when it has pathogens and when the chorine is ineffective, e.g. for viruses and protozoans).
• Water levels monitoring in the groundwater beds (to identify when an overuse occurs and when the unsaturated zone is decreasing (natural water purification)).
• Prepare for an additional water supply source (to be used when the number of tourists increases).
• Mapping of private sewers and their vulnerabilities (to identify potential sources of pathogens leakage and be to prioritize actions).
• Create a plan to reduce the need for broadening the system today and in the future by e.g. more often using the extra infiltration station or other potential needs or techniques.
Planning process
• More stringent protection of water conservation areas in the overview and detailed overview plans, especially for secondary and third conservation areas.
• Stronger protections for areas sensitive to erosion and landslides and measures to strengthen areas sensitive today to cope with the expected climate changes that can reduce the increasing sediment load in Åresjön.
• Remove space for interpretation and become more serious by creating a more steering document instead of a guideline. There should be clear
46
suggestions when and how exceptions can be made, of which a percentage of dispensation (or similar measurable instruments) can contribute to a clearer control.
Further solutions:
• Holistic and cross-sectorial work (natural communication and work between departments within the municipality and private owners of water supply and drainage systems, as well as between communities, within the municipality and across municipal borders (can be applied to the planning process)).
• Maintain the restriction of artificial snow production (uptake from
Åresjön), which partially addresses the erosion and landslide, and sediment load vulnerabilities.
47
4 Discussion The result shows that drinking water is a sensitive provision in Åre ski resort, which becomes more vulnerable due to expected effects of climate change and an increased tourism. The number of tourists has been identified as the main driver for affecting drinking water (if no adaptation is made) due to the fact that it received most amounts of high scores in the vulnerability assessment. The amount of drinking water may be under an unsustainable use today, which will increase as the number of tourist increases. This is combined with no monitoring of groundwater levels or knowledge of infiltration capacities, which contributes to this risk. Identified vulnerability factors include an increase of microbiological particles in surface and groundwater, and an increased sediment load in Åresjön with particles resulting from erosion and/or landslides. The most vulnerable factors however, lie within the municipal planning process and the preparedness for water production and wastewater treatment. It is also within these factors opportunities for adaptations (indirect and direct) are present, and which are considered necessary to apply in order to ensure sufficient drinking water of good quality until 2100. Although this study is a case study based on Swedish regulations, similar patterns can be seen elsewhere under similar circumstances, which makes the result applicable to other tourist areas. Especially other seasonally based tourist areas with the potential to develop into a year-round tourist destination are suitable. As the result was based on the fact that gravity was identified as a factor in the “drivers” category in the DPSIR framework, tourist areas with similar geographical conditions as Åre are the most suitable. Furthermore, the results are highly dependent on the type of data (literature study) and the information provided by the municipality (regarding the mapping of the situation of Åre ski resort). Interviews of employers, politicians and private persons are a method that can be used in order to collect data and information. However, it has not been used in this study to uphold an objective focus, which could have been influenced by people’s thoughts. But such a method can provide more information to the studied subject. The DPSIR framework has been both valuable and unnecessarily troublesome. The complex and the problematics surrounding the studied problem has been shown using the tool, and is considered
48
suitable for use when creating scenario analysis (as changes can clearly be applied). The potential for interpreting the tool in different ways is a weakness, resulting in different outcomes and can be avoided by clarifying personal interpretations, thus saving a lot of time. Categorizing areas or factors into a particular category forces the problem to be explained in detail, which is good for identifying weaknesses. When it comes to calculating water consumption and analysing tourism development, fluctuation is a variable that can be included to bring results closer to reality. The expected tourism development should be seen as an example of a possible future as future forecasts are very difficult to create with high reliability. The lowest levels for groundwater bed in the study area have been seen in the summer and the majority of the tourism is today in the winter. These seasonal differences are interesting areas for future studies, as they can be linked together and result in greater seasonal impact. Few studies were found in the literature study that had the same approach or purpose as this study, making the result difficult to compare. Drinking water in relation to climate change is investigated from an overall perspective (barriers and opportunities) in e.g. Swedish Water (2007). However, this study is partly based on that investigation, as it has collected data from it, hence the result is not comparable. Further recommendations for future studies:
• Investigate potential increase in water level of Indalsälven and its influence on water quality.
• Map potential threshold level for the decreasing microbiological barrier resulting from increasing groundwater level for drinking water contamination.
49
5 Conclusions
• The most vulnerable areas in the studied drinking water system are identified in the protection of drinking water in the planning process and in the preparedness of water production and wastewater treatment. Thus, the majority of adaptations are presented.
• Tourist development is considered to be a larger driver than climate change in regards to deterioration of surface and groundwater qualities, primarily by increasing microbiological particles.
• Increases in the number of tourists combined with insufficient monitoring of groundwater levels and infiltration capacity knowledge are unsustainable and are expected to reduce the amount of water in the large groundwater beds.
• To ensure sufficient drinking water of good quality up to 2100, it is recommended to implement direct and indirect adaptation measures.
50
6 Acknowledgements Anders Jonsson, my supervisor. Thank you for your guidance throughout the process of this study. I am particularly grateful for your encouragement to continue working on the report when I thought it was done. I first realized after more work that it was not finished. Melissa Maxter and Iza Nord, students. Thank you for your endless support, the platform for amazing discussions and love. Without you guys, the study period had felt confusing and lonely. Anna Hammarberg and Maria Eriksson, Åre municipality. Thank you for letting me into Åre municipality’s world. Klas Leidermark, my brother. Thank you for improving my English and thoughts. To my family: Gabriel Gåsste and my two daughters. A special thank you for your support and reminders why the study subject is important.
1
References Aastrup, M., Thunholm, B., Sundén, G., & Dahné, J. (2012). Klimatets påverkan på
koncentrationer av kemiska ämnen i grundvattnet. SGU-rapport 2012:27. Alterholt, T. B., LeChevalier, M. W., Norton, W. D., & Rosen, J. S. (1998). Effect of rainfall of
Giardia and Cryptosporidium. American Water Works Association, 90(9), 66–80. Andersson, L., Bohman, A., van Wel, L., Jonsson, A., Persson, G., & Farelius, J. (2015).
Underlag till Kontrollstation 2015 för anpassning till ett förändrat klimat. (SMHI Klimatologi nr 12). Norrköping, SMHI.
Andersson, M., & Lundström, K. (2018). Åre kommun, Jämtlands län –förstudie och översiktlig kartering av stabiliteten i raviner och slänter i morän och grov sedimentjord. (Statens geotekniska institut. Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredning. 2015-7182).
Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz , Z.W., Wu, S., & Palutikof, J.P. (2008). Climate Change and Water, IPCC Technical Paper VI. (IPCC). Geneva : IPCC Secretariat. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/climate-change-water-en.pdf
Bergstedt, O., Blom, L., Friberg, J., Furuberg, K., Gjerstad, K., & Grönvall, P., … Sokolova, E. (2013). Hur man arbetar för att minska samhällets sårbarhet för vattenburen virussmitta torts förändrat klimat. Göteborg, Sweden: VISK.
Bradley, P., & Yee, S. (2015). Using the DPSIR Framework to Develop a Conceptual Model: Technical Support Document. United States Environmental Protections Agency. Washington
Brient, L., Lengronne, M., Bormans, M., & Fastner, J. (2008) First occurrence of Cylindrospermopsin in freshwater in France. Environmental Toxicology, 24(4), 415–20. doi:org/10.1002/tox.20439
Boholm, Å., & Prutzer, M. (2017). Experts´understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario. Climate Risk Management, (16), 133-144. doi:org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.01.003
Boxall, A., Hardy, A., Beulke, S., Boucard, T., Burgin, L Falloon, P., … Williams, R. (2009). Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture. Environmental Health Perspectives, 117(4), 508-514. doi:10.1289/ehp.0800084
Butler, R. (1980). The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution: Implications for management of resources. The Canadian Geographer, 24 (1). doi:org/10.1111/j.1541-0064.1980.tb00970.x
Cann, K.F., Thomas, D.R., Salomon, R.L., Wyn-Jones, A.P., Kay, D., 2013. Extreme water-related weather events and waterborne disease. Epidemiology and Infection, 141 (4), 671–686. doi:org/10.1017/S0950268812001653
Chang, H. (2004). Water quality impacts of climate and land use changes in southeastern Pennsylvania. Professional Geographer, 56(2), 240-257. doi.org/10.1111/j.0033-0124.2004.05602008.x
Charron, D., Thomas, K., Waltner-Toews, D., Aramini, J., Edge, T., Kent, R., … Wilson, J. (2004). Vulnerability of waterborne diseases to cimate change in Canada: a review. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A, 67(20-22). doi:org/10.1080/15287390490492313
Chin, J. (2000). Control of communicable diseases manual. American Public Health Association. 17th ed. Washington: American Public Health Association.
Choi, K., Kim, Y., Park, J., Park, C., Kim, M., Kim H., & Kim P. (2008). Seasonal variations of several pharmaceutical residues in surface water and sewage treatment plants of Han River. Science of the Total Environment, 405 (1-3), 102–28. doi:org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.06.038
2
Crosbie, R., Scanlon, B., Mpelasoka, F., Reedy, R., Gates, J. & Zhang, L. (2013). Potential climate change effects on groundwater recharge in the High Plains Aquifer, USA. Water Resources Research, 49(7), 3936-3951. doi:org/10.1002/wrcr.20292
Cui, X., Huang, G., Chen, Q., & Morse, A. (2008). Threatening of climate change on water resources and supply: Case study of North China. ScienceDirect, 248(1-3), 476-478. doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2008.05.090
Cui, S., Yang, X., Guo, X., Lin, T., Zhao, Q., & Feng, L. (2011). Increased challenges for world heritage protection as a result of urbanization in Lijiang City. International Journal of susrainable development & world ecology, 18 (6), 480-485. doi:org/10.1080/13504509.2011.603758
Danielsson, E. (2012). Jordskred i Åre. Retrieved 2018-04-17 from https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/vasternorrland/20120327144422_jordskred_i_are
Delpha, I., Jung, A.-V., Baures, E., Clement, M., & Thomas, O. (2012). Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production. Environmental International, 35(8), 1225-1233. doi:org/10.1016/j.envint.2009.07.001
Dryselius, R. (2012). Mikrobiologiska dricksvattenrisker ur ett kretsloppsperspektiv – behov och åtgärder. Livsmedelsverket. Rapport nr 6–2012.
Ducharne, A., Baubion, C., Beaudoin, N., Benoit, M., Billen, G., Brisson, N., …Viennot, P. (2007). Long term prospective of the Seine river system: confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes. Science of the total environment, 375(1-3), 292-311. doi:org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.12.011
Duran-Encalada, J.A., Paucar-Caceres, A., Bandala, E.R., & Wright, G.H. (2017). The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality: A system dynamics approach to the US-Mexican transborder region. European Journal of Operational Research, 256(2), 567-581. doi:org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.016
Earman, S., Campbell, A., Phillips, F., & Newman, B. (2006). Isotopic exchange between snow and atmospheric water vapor: estimation of the snowmelt component of groundwater recharge in the southwestern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111(D9). doi:10.1029/2005JD006470
Environmental code. (1998:808). Retrieved 2018-01-31 from https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-lagar/dokument/svensk-forfattningssamling/miljobalk-1998808_sfs-1998-808
EU. (2017). Goal 6: Ensure access to water and sanitation for all. Retrieved 2017-01-26 from http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/water-and-sanitation/
European Union law. (EUR-Lex) (2000). Direktive 2000/60/EC. Official Journal L327. Retrieved 2018-01-31 from http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1517388757108&uri=CELEX:32000L0060
Filho, W., Musa, H., Cavan, G., O´Hare,P., & Seixas, J. (2010). Climate Change Adaptation, Resilience and Hazards. Switzerland: Springer International Publishing
Folkhälsomyndigheten. (2016a). Sjukdomsinformation om vattenburna infektioner och utbrott. Retrieved 2018-04-10 from https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/smittsamma-sjukdomar/vattenburen-smitta/
Folkhälsomyndigheten. (2016b). Exempel på vattenburna utbrott I Sverige. Retrieved 2018-04-10 from https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/smittsamma-sjukdomar/vattenburen-smitta/exempel-pa-dricksvattenburna-utbrott-i-sverige/
3
Folkhälsomyndigheten. (2016c). Sjukdomsinformation om calicivirus (noro- och sapovirus). Retrieved 2018-04-10 from https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/smittsamma-sjukdomar/calicivirus-noro-och-sapovirus/
Giupponi, C. (2002). From the DPSIR reporting framework to a system for a dynamic and integrated decision making process. In MULINO International Conference on “European policy and tools for sustainable water management”. Venice, Italy.
Göransson, G., Norrman, J., Larson, M., Alén, C., & Rosén, L. (2013), A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers. Science of The Total Environment. 472, 481–495 doi:org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.11.013
Göransson, G., Hedfors, J., Ndayikengurukiye, G., Blied, L., & Odén, K. (2015), Skredrisker i ett förändrat klimat – Norsälven. Framtida erosion i Norsälven med hänsyn till klimatförändring. Linköping , SGI Publikation 18-3.
Häfliger, D., Hübner, P., & Lüthy, J. (2000). Outbreak of viral gastroenteritis due to sewage-contaminated drinking water. International Journal of Food Microbiology. 54(1-2), 123–126. doi:org/10.1016/S0168-1605(99)00176-2
Haines, A., Kovats, RS., Campbell-Lendrum, D., & Corvalan, C. (2006). Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health. Public health, 120 (7): 585-596. doi:org/10.1016/j.puhe.2006.01.002
Hedberg, G. (2012). Åre Destination, Utveckling 2000-2011. Malinderss Management Ab. Retrieved 2018-03-21 from https://issuu.com/tintin.se/docs/are_dest_utv_00-11_sve_5sep
Herrador, B., de Blasio, B., MacDonald, E., Nichols, G., Sudre, B., Vold, L., …Nygård, K., (2015). Analytical studies assessing the association between extreme precipitation or temperature and drinking water-related waterborne infections: a review. Environmental Health, 14 (29). doi:org/10.1186/s12940-015-0014-y
Hjerpe, M., Storbjörk, S., & Alberth, J. (2014). ‘‘There is nothing political in it”: Triggers of local political leaders’ engagement in climate adaptation. The International Journal of Justice and Sustainability, 20(8), 855–873. doi:org/10.1080/13549839.2013.872092
Hoxie, NJ., Davis, JP., Vergeront, JM., Nashold, RD., & Blair, KA. (1997). Cryptosporidiosis-associated mortality following a massive waterborne outbreak in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. American Journal of Public Health Assossiation, 87(12), 2032–2035. doi:10.2105/AJPH.87.12.2032
Hunter PR. (2003). Climate change and waterborne and vector-borne disease. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 94(1).
Indalsälvens Vattenvårdsförbund. (2018). Karta med provpunkter, Kullenbron. Retrieved 2018-04-09 from http://indalsalven.se/
IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Geneva, Switzerland : IPCC. Jonsson, Anders. (2006). Indalsälvens vattenkvalitet: 1993-2005. EM-LAB. Retrieved 2018-02-02
from http://indalsalven.se/Rapporter/Indalsalvensvattenkvalitet1993-2005.pdf Juménez Cisneros, B.E., Oki, T., Arnell, N.W., Benito, G., Cogley, J.G., Döll, P., … Mwakalila,
S.S. (2014). Freshwater resources. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York : Cambridge University Press.
Jöhnk, K., Huisman, J., Sharples, J., Sommeijer, B., Visser, P., & Stroom, J. (2007). Summer
heatwaves promote blooms of harmful cyanobacteria. Global Change Biology, 14,(3).
4
doi:org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01510.x Kaste, O., Wright, R., Barkved, L, Bjerkeng, B., Engen-Skaugen, T., Magnusson J., & Saelthun
N.R. Linked models to assess the impact of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and fjord system. Science of the total environment, 365(1-3) 200-222. doi:org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.02.035
Kaufmann, R., & Cleveland, C. (2008). Environmental science. New York: McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Kovacs, M. (2013). Climate change influence on drinking water quality. Processes in isotopes and molecules (PIM 2013) 1565 (1): 298-303. AIP Publishing.
Kristensen, P. (2004). The DPSIR Framework. Paper Presented at the 27 – 29 September 2004 Workshop on a comprehensive/detailed assessment of the vulnerability of water resources to environmental changes in Africa using river basin approach. UNEP Headquarters, Nairobi, Kenya.
Kundzewicz, Z. & Krysanova, V. (2010). Climate change and stream water quality in the multi-factor context. Climatic Change, 103(3-4), 353-362.
Kundzewicz, Z.W., Mata, L.J., Arnell, N.W., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiménez, B., … & Shiklomanov, I.A. (2007). Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. (IPCC). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter3.pdf
Lavell, A., Oppenheimer, M., Diop, C., Hess, J., Lempert, R., Li, J., … & Myeong, S. (2012). Climate change: new dimensions in disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. (IPCC). Cambridge, UK, and New York : Cambridge University Press. Retieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX-Chap1_FINAL.pdf
Leggett, H., Cornwallis, C., & West, S. (2012). Mechanisms of Pathogenisis, Infective Dose and Virulence in Human Parasites. PLoS Pathog, 8(2). doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1002512
Leijman, S. (2017). Åres exploatering skadar unik rödingstam. SVT. Retrieved 2018-04-10 from https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/jamtland/ares-exploatering-skadar-unik-rodingstam
Liu, H. (2011). Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in dry areas: an ecohydrology approach. Journal of Hydrology, 407(1-4), 175-183. doi:org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.024
Livsmedelsverkets författningssamling [LIV], (SFS 2017:3), (H 20:12). Livsmedelsverket. Elanders. Retrieved 2018-06-11 from https://www.livsmedelsverket.se/globalassets/om-oss/lagstiftning/avgifter/livsfs-2017-3_web.pdf
Länstyrelsen Jämtlands län. (2013). Ras och skred utifrån ett förändrat klimat. (451-567-12). Östersund: Länsstyrelsens tryckeri.
Länstyrelsen Jämtlands län. (2018a). Vattenskyddsområden. Retrieved 2018-02-03 from https://www.lansstyrelsen.se/jamtland/foretag/mark-och-bebyggelse/ingrepp-i-skyddad-natur/vattenskyddsomraden.html
Länstyrelsen Jämtlands län. (2018b). Förorenade områden. Retrieved 2018-06-21 from https://www.lansstyrelsen.se/jamtland/privat/bygga-och-bo/fororenade-omraden.html
Länstyrelsen i Kalmar län. (2013). Regional vattenförsörjningsplan Kalmar län 2013. 420-1090-11. Länstyrelsen Kalmar län
Löfgren, E. (2010). Åre rasar samman. Retrieved 2018-04-17 from https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article12356984.ab
Malmaeus, JM., Blenckner, T., Markensten, H., & Persson, I. (2006). Lake phosphorus
5
dynamics and climate warming: A mechanistic model approach. Ecological Modelling, 190(1-2), 1–14. doi:org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.017
Malmström, B., & Åberg, Å. (2003). Jordskred orsakade kaos i Åre. Retrieved 2018-04-17 from https://www.svd.se/jordskred-orsakade-kaos-i-are
Maxim, L., Spangenberg, J., & O´Connor, M. (2009). An analysis of risks for biodiversity under the DPSIR framework. Ecological economics, 69(1), 12-23. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.03.017
McNeely, J.A., Mittermeier, R.A., Brooks, T.M., Boltz, F., & Ash, N. (2009). The wealth of nature: Ecosystem services, Biodiversity, and Human Well-Being. United States: ILCP
Naturvårdsverket. (2007). Bilaga A - Bedömningsgrunder för sjöar och vatten drag. 2007:4 Nikolaou, A., Golfinopoulos, S., Arhonditsis, G., Kolovoyiannis V., & Lekkasa T. (2004).
Modeling the formation of chlorination by-products in river waters with different quality. Chemosphere, 55(3), 409–420. doi:org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2003.11.008
Nilsson, P. (2010). Fjällturismens historia – en studie av utvecklingen I Åredalen (4 edition). Östersund: Daus Tryckeri.
Nylén, L., Asp, M., Berggreen-Clausen, S., Berglöv, G., Björck, E., Mårtensson, J., ... & Sjökvist, E. (2015). Framtidsklimat I Jämtlandslän –enligt RCP-scenarier. Klimatologi Nr. 34
Nyman, P., Sheridan, G., Smith, H., & Lane, P. (2011). Evidence of debris flow occurrence after wildfire in upland catchments of south-east Australia. Geomorphology, 125(3), 383-401.
O´Connor, M. (2007). The “four spheres” framework for sustainability. Ecological complexity, 3(4), 285-292. doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.02.002
Ojala, L., Thunholm, B., Maxe, L., Persson, G., & Bergmark, M. (2007). Kan grundvattenmålet klaras vid ändrade klimatförhållanden? –underlag för analys. (SGU-rapport 2007:9)
Pednekar, A., Grant, S., Jeong, Y. Poon, Y., & Oancea, C. (2005). Influence of climate change, tidal mixing, and watershed urbanization on historical water quality in Newport Bay, a saltwater wetland and tidal embayment in southern California. Environmental Science and Technology, 39(23): 9071-9082. doi: 10.1021/es0504789
Petley, D. (2012). Global patterns of loss of life from landslides. The Geological society of America, 40(10), 927-930. doi.org/10.1130/G33217.1
Public water services (SFS 2006:412). Retrieved from Notisum http://www.notisum.se/rnp/sls/lag/20060412.htm
Roth, S. & Thörn, P. (2015.) Klimatanpassning 2015 –Så långt har Sveriges kommuner kommit. NR B 2228. Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
Rödkullen. (2018). Rödkullen panorama. Retrieved 2018-04-02 from http://rodkullen.se/#intro Schwartz, J., Levin, R., & Goldstein, R. (2000). Drinking water turbidity and gastrointestinal
illness in the elderly of Philadelphia. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 54(1), 45 51. doi.org/10.1136/jech.54.1.45
Smeets, E., & Weterings, R. (1999). Environmental indicators: typology and overview. Technical report No. 25. European Environment Agency: Copenhagen.
Smith, K.R., Woodward A, Campbell-Lendrum, D, Chadee, D.D., Honda, Y., Liu, Q., …& Sauerborn, R. (2014). Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. (IPCC). Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
6
SMHI. (2016). Varför klimatanpassning? Retrieved 2017-01-26 from http://www.klimatanpassning.se/om-oss/varfor-klimatanpassning-1.7782
SMHI. (2017a). About the analysis. Retrieved 2018-02-02 from https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/climate-scenarios/haag_en.html
SMHI. (2017b). Ny generation scenarier för klimatpåverkan –RCP. Retrieved 2018-02-14 from https://www.smhi.se/kunskapsbanken/klimat/rcp-er-den-nya-generationen-klimatscenarier-1.32914
SMHI. (2018a). Länsvisa klimatanalyser. (Jämtlandslän, selected parameter). Retrieved 2018-06-05 from https://www.smhi.se/klimat/framtidens-klimat/lansanalyser#23_Jamtland,t2m_meanAnnual,ANN
SMHI. (2018b). Hydrologiskt nuläge. Retrieved 2018-06-11 from https://vattenwebb.smhi.se/hydronu/
Smittskyddsinstutet (smi), Socialstyrelsen och Statens veterinärmedicinska anstalt (SVA). (2011). Smittsamma sjukdomar i ett förändrat klimat. Redovisning av ett myndighetsgemensamt regeringsuppdrag. 2011-4-1.
SGI (2012). Göta älvutredningen. Skredrisker i Göta älvdalen i ett förändrat klimat. Lindköping.
SGU. (2014a). Vatten att leva i och dricka. Miljömålen. Retrieved 2017-01-26 from http://sverigesmiljomal.se/miljomalen/grundvatten-av-god-kvalitet/
SGU. (2014b). Vattenförvaltning av grundvatten. (SGU-rapport 2014:31). Uppsala SGU. (2016a). Grundvatten av god kvalié. Retrieved 2018-03-19 from
https://www.miljomal.se/Miljomalen/9-Grundvatten-av-god-kvalitet/ SGU. (2016b). Levande sjöar och vattendrag. Retrieved 2018-03-19 from
https://www.miljomal.se/Miljomalen/8-Levande-sjoar-och-vattendrag/ SGU. (2016c). Bara naturlig försurning. Retrieved 2018-03-19 from
https://www.miljomal.se/Miljomalen/3-Bara-naturlig-forsurning/ SGU. (2016d). Extremt låga grundvattennivåer. Retrieved 2018-03-20 from
https://www.sgu.se/om-sgu/nyheter/2016/mars/extremt-laga-grundvattennivaer/ SGU. (2017) Giftfri miljö. Retrieved 2018-03-19 from https://www.miljomal.se/Miljomalen/4-
Giftfri-miljo/ SGU. (2018a). Månadskarta over grundvattensituationen. Retrieved 2018-04-02 from
https://www.sgu.se/produkter/geologiska-data/oppna-data/grundvatten-oppna-data/manadskarta-over-grundvattensituationen/
SGU. (2018b) Geokartan. Jordarter. Berggrund. Retrieved 2018-06-11 from https://apps.sgu.se/geokartan/
SOU. (2007). Sverige inför klimatförändringarna –hot och möjligheter. (SOU 2007:60). SOU. (2015). Klimatförändringar och dricksvattenförsörjning. (SOU 2015:51). Elanders
Sverige AB, Stockholm. Sun, S., Wang, Y., Liu, J., Cai, H., Wu, P., Geng, Q., & Xu, L. (2016). Sustainability assessment
of regional water resources under the DPSIR framework. Journal of Hydrology. 532,140-148. doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.028
Svensson, J. (2015). Fisketurismen hotas av slam i Åresjön. Sveriges Radio. Retrieved 2016-04-10 from http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=78&artikel=6083969
Svenska skidförbundet. (2016). Åre arrangerar alpine VM 2019. Retrieved 2018-03-21 from http://www.skidor.com/foljoss/nyhetsflode/aktuelltfranssf/2014/ArearrangeraralpinaVM2019
Svenskt Vatten. (2007). Drickvattenförsörjning i förändrat klimat, underlagsrapport till klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen. Erlanders, Östervåla.
Symons, J., Bellar, T., Carswell, J.K, DeMarco, J., Kroop, K., Robeck, G,. … Stevens, A. (1975). National organics reconnaissance survey for halogenated organics. Journal American
7
Water Works Association, 67 (11), 634–47. Säve-Söderbergh, M, Malm, A., Dryselius, R., & Toljander, J. (2013). Mikrobiologiska risker
vid dricksvattendistribution –översikt av händelser, driftstörningar, problem och rutiner. Livsmedelsverket rapport nr 19/2013.
Taylor, R., Todd, M., Kongola, L. Maurice, L., Nahozya, E., Sanga, H., & MacDonald, A. (2013). Evidence of the dependence of groundwater resources on extreme rainfall in East Africa. Nature Climate Change, 3(4), 374-378. doi:10.1038/nclimate1731
Teklehaimanot, G., Kamika, I., Coetzee, M., & Momba, M. (2015). Population growth and its impact on the design capacity and performance of the wastewater treatment plants in Sedibeng and Soshanguve, South Africa. Environmental Management, 56(4), 984-997. doi:org/10.1007/s00267-015-0564-3
Teksoy, A., Alkan, U,. & Baskaya, H. (2008). Influence of treatment process combinations on the formation of THM species in water. Separation and Purification Technology, 61(3), 447–54. doi:org/10.1016/j.seppur.2007.12.008
Tornevi, A. (2015). Precipitation, Raw Water Quality, Drinking Water Treatment and Gastrointestinal Illness. (Doctoral thesis, Umeå University, Umeå). Retrieved from http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A853512&dswid=4585
Van Vlietand, MTH. & Zwolsman, JJG. (2008). Impact of summer droughts on the water quality of the Meuse river. Journal of Hydrology, 353(1-2), 1-17. doi:org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.01.001
VISS. (2018a). Åreåsen Åre-Duved. Retrieved 2018-02-13 from http://viss.lansstyrelsen.se/Waters.aspx?waterMSCD=WA45414966
VISS. (2018b). Åreåsen vid Långnäset. Retrieved 2018-04-26 from http://viss.lansstyrelsen.se/Waters.aspx?waterMSCD=WA46855030
VISS. (2018c). Åresjön. Retrieved 2018-02-13 from http://viss.lansstyrelsen.se/Waters.aspx?waterMSCD=WA25615428
Wang, H., Yang, Z. Saito, Y., Liu, J.P, Sun, X., & Wang, Y. (2007). Stepwise decreases of the Huanghe (Yellow River) sediment load (1950-2005): Impacts of climate change and human activities. Global and Planetary Change, 57(3-4), 331-354. doi:org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.01.003
Weatherhead, E.K. & Howden, N.J.K. (2009). The relationship between land use and surface water resources in the UK. Land use Policy, 26(1), S243-S250. doi:org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.08.007
Whitehead, P.G., Wilby, R.L, Battarbee, R.W.,Kernan, M., & Wade, A.J. (2009). A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(1), 101-123. doi:org/10.1623/hysj.54.1.101
World Health Organization (WHO). (2011). Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality (4 Edition). World Health Organization.
Wiedner, C., Ru cker, J., Bru ggemann, R., & Nixdorf, B. (2007). Climate change affects timing and size of populations of an invasive cyanobacterium in temperate regions. Oecologia 152(3), 473–84. doi:org/10.1007/s00442-007-0683-5
Widlund, T. (2016) ÅRE – byn som försvann. Östersund: Jengel Förlag AB. Wilby, RL., Whitehead, PG., Wade, A.J., Butterfield, D., David, RJ., & Watts, G. (2006).
Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland carchment: River Kennet, UK. Journal of Hydrology, 330(1-2), 204-20. doi:org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.033
8
Zwolsman, J.J.G., & van Bokhoven, A.J. (2007). Impact of summer droughts on water quality of the Rhine River –a preview of climate change? Water science & technology, 56(4), 44-55. doi:10.2166/wst.2007.535
Åström, J., & Pettersson, T. (2009). Mikrobiologisk förorening av ytvattentäkter –kommunala avloppsutsläpp och stokastisk simulering. Svenskt Vatten Utveckling. 2009-04.
Åre kommun. (2012). Kommuntäckande översiktsplan. Dnr. KS.2012.765/212. Retrieved 2018-05-04 from http://are.se/byggabo/oversiktsplanering
Åre kommun. (2015). Fördjupad översiktsplan för Åre samhälle, antagen 2005. Retrieved 2018-05-04 from http://are.se/byggabo/samhallsplanering/fordjupadeoversiktsplaner.
Åre kommun. (2016a). Befolkningsprognos 2016-2026. Retrieved 2018-05-06 from http://are.se/kommunpolitik/dinkommun/befolkningsprognosfolkmangd
Åre kommun. (2016b). Vision 2035. Retrieved 2018-05-20 from http://are.se/sok?q=vision+2035&Search=
Åre kommun. (2018). Statistik. Åres utveckling 2000-2015 (238 KB). Retrieved 2018-06-11 from http://are.se/naringslivjobb/naringsliv/statistik
Åre Sadeln. (2018). Åre Sadeln –Fakta. Retieved 2018-04-02 from http://aresadeln.se/fakta/ Öhd, L. (2015). Ytterligare en miljon kubikmeter vatten får användas till konstsnö i Åre. LT.
Retrieved 2018-04-10 from http://www.ltz.se/jamtland/are/ytterligare-en-miljon-kubikmeter-vatten-far-anvandas-till-konstsno-i-are
1
Appendices
Appendix A Butlers theoretical model of evolution of a tourist area In the first stage, exploration follows a small number of tourists an irregular visitation pattern, and facilities just for tourist does not exist. Their influence on environment, economy and social life is more or less insignificant. The second stage, involvement, follows an increased number of tourists; a pattern of some regularity and a development of a tourist season can start. Some facilities just for tourist start to exist as well as travel arrangements. In the third stage, development, the tourist settlement has now been established. Multiple facilities and arrangement for visitors is a fact and a start of disappearance of locally facilities occurs. The physical environment will change due to tourism. The type of tourists will change to a more wide range. The fourth stage, consolidation, follows the rate of tourists, showing a declining trend of the rate but with an increasing total number. Tourism now plays a vital role for the economy and an extension of the tourist season often occurs. The number of tourists exceeds inhabitants and number of facilities is large. In the fifth stage, stagnation, the peak of number of tourist has been reached as well as the level of capacity, which causes problems. The area has lost it appearance as trendy and ownership changes often occur. Tourist beds will stand empty during season. Then the stage decline can occur, which is characterized by a numerically and spatially declining market. Here facilities are often switched from tourist structures to structures related to inhabitants. Stage rejuvenation could also happen and demands a unique solution to reach a nearly timeless attractiveness where carrying capacity is not a threat. The stage mainly only occurs when the attraction of the area is completely shifted either as a man-made attraction or as untapped natural resources. This could also happen for winter sport tourism seasons, where a shift goes from seasonal attractions to attractions over the whole year. Curve B could appear when the level of capacity goes through minor adjustments and modifications where recourses are protected. Curve C is characterized by a stabilization of tourism after a readjustment of all levels of capacity. Curve D symbolized a market decline due to a continued overuse of resources. Curve
2
E stands for an immediate decline where the reason could depend of diseases or catastrophic events (Butler, 1980).
Figure A1. Illustration of the hypothetical evolution of a tourist area, 1=Involvement, 2=Exploration, 3=Development, 4=Consolidation, 5=Stagnation, 6=Rejuvenation, 7=Decline. Adapted from “The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution” by Butler (1980).
3
Appendix B Groundwater levels in Åre ski resort Table A1. The colors represent a calculated groundwater level in Åre ski resort from 1984 to 2017. Red indicates the status ”much below normal”, yellow ”below normal”, green ”close to normal”, light blue ”above normal” and dark blue ”much above normal” (SGU, 2018a).
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
4
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
Figure A2. The chart shows calculated groundwater level in larger magazines in Åre ski resort from 1984 to 2017 presented in months. The result is the same as in table 1 (Appendix B) but presented in a column diagram to show the difference in amount, fluctuation (SGU, 2018a).
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5
Appendix C Calculations for amount of tourist in 2100 Based on assumption presented in paragraph 3.4.2. 2054 - 2035 = 19years 19*16 000 = 304 000 tourist nights (increase to 2054) 2100 - 2064 = 36years 36*8 000 = 288 000 tourist nights (increase to 2064) 1 100 000 + 304 000 + 288 000 = 1 692 000 tourist nights in 2100 According to Helena Lindahl (personal communication 20-03-2018) are the actual guests in Åre assumed to be the double. 1 692 000 * 2 = 3 384 000
6
Appendix D Calculations for drinking water production/consumption Produced drinking water 2015 Englandsviken 430 388m3 Långnäset 302 938m3 Total amount = 430 388m3 + 302 938m3 = 733 326m3 733 326m3/ 365 = 2009m3/d. Amount of guest nights (tourists) 2015/2016 (Åre kommun, 2018) 802 780 Guest nights According to Helena Lindahl (personal communication 20-03-2018) are the actual guests in Åre assumed to be the double value than shown in Åre kommun (2018). 801 780*2 = 1 603 560 guest nights. 1 603 560/365 = 4 393 guest nights/day 4 028 inhabitants* in Åre 2015 (Åre kommun, 2016a). An assumption is made that guest nights represent number of tourists. 4 028 inhabitants + 4393 guest nights = 8 421 nr of people/day in Åre Amount of guest nights (tourists) 2100 A forecast show 4 935 in 2020 (Åre kommun, 2016a). Assume the inhabitant development after 2020 will increase outside the area of Åre/Duved and stay at 4935. Based on the scenario analysis of tourist development (Paragraph 3.4.2) and calculation in Appendix C will the number of tourist be 3 384 000. 3 384 000/365= 9 271 tourist/day 9 271 + 4935 = 14 206 nr of people/day in Åre ski resort 2100 Amount of produced drinking water 2100 The number of tourist 2100 is expected to be roughly the double that mean that the produced amount of drinking water should also be the double value. 2009m3/day*2 = 4 018m3/d produced drinking water 2100 * It is unclear if the number of inhabitants concludes seasonal workers.
7
Appendix E Calculations for amount of water in the groundwater beds Total groundwater bed amount (Paragraph 4.3) 43 605 000 m3 + 4 907 000 m3 = 48 512 000m3 Number of years for groundwater beds to become empty assuming the same extraction amount each year and no adding of new water 2015. Total production 2015 (Appendix E): 733 326m3 733 326m3*66= 48 399 516* Number of years for groundwater beds to become empty assuming the same extraction amount each year and no adding of new water 2100. Estimated production 2100 (Appendix E): 733 326m3*2=1 466 652m3 1 446 652m3*33= 48 399 516* *Assuming that the value is roughly the same as 48 512 000m3
