ICPSR 4650 PublicOpinionandForeignPolicy intheUnitedStates ... · ppt25 Total number of HH members age 2 to 5 ppt612 Total number of HH members age 6 to 12 ppt1317 Total number of

Public Opinion and Foreign Policyin the United States, China, India,Australia, and South Korea, 2006

ICPSR 4650

Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Asia Society

East Asia Institute (EAI)

User Guide

Inter-university Consortium forPolitical and Social ResearchP.O. Box 1248Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106www.icpsr.umich.edu

Terms of UseThe terms of use for this study can be found at:

http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/cocoon/ICPSR/TERMS/4650.xml

http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/cocoon/ICPSR/TERMS/4650.xml

1350 Willow Road, Suite 102

Menlo Park, CA 94025

P: 650-289-2160

F: 650-289-2001

www.knowledgenetworks.com

Field Report

American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy July 2006

Conducted for,

The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations

Submitted to:

Christopher Whitney,

Executive Director for Studies

July 24, 2006

Knowledge Networks Deliverable Authorization Printed Name Signature Date Title J. Michael Dennis

July 24, 2006

VP, Government and Academic Research

Table of Contents

AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION AND U.S. FOREIGN POLICY JUL Y 2006......... 4

INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 4

TABLE 1. SURVEY COMPLETION RATE............................................................................. 4

DATA FILE DELIVERABLES AND DESCRIPTIONS............ .................................. 4

TABLE 2. DELIVERABLE DESCRIPTION............................................................................. 5 TABLE 3: SUPPLEMENTAL VARIABLES ............................................................................ 5

KEY PERSONNEL .......................................................................................................... 7

KNOWLEDGE NETWORKS METHODOLOGY..................... .................................. 8

INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 8 PANEL RECRUITMENT METHODOLOGY............................................................................ 8 SURVEY ADMINISTRATION............................................................................................. 10 SURVEY SAMPLING FROM PANEL ................................................................................... 10

Panel Sample Design Weights .................................................................................. 11 Sample Design of the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations American Public Opinion Survey.......................................................................................................... 12 Preparation of Final Weights for the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations American Public Opinion Survey.............................................................................. 12

APPENDIX A: QUESTIONNAIRE.............................................................................. 14

American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy July 2006

Introduction Knowledge Networks conducted a study of American public opinion and foreign policy attitudes for The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) in July 2006. The survey was fielded on June 23rd 2006 to a total of 1,570 panel members age eighteen years of age or older who represented a general population sample. The interview completion goal was to collect a minimum of 1,100 completed interviews. Due to the length of the survey interview, forty-six minutes median time, respondents were offered a ten-dollar incentive for completing the survey. An email reminder was sent to non-responders after three days, one week, and two weeks to improve response. CCFR provided Knowledge Networks with the survey instrument. In conjunction with CCFR, Knowledge Networks revised the instrument so that it met the design requirements of the MSN WebTV platform. A pretest survey was conducted to determine the survey length and verify all survey functionality worked correctly. Table 1 below displays the field period and completion rate of the survey.

Table 1. Survey Completion Rate

Field Start Date Field End Date Number Fielded Number Completed Completion Rate

6/23/2006 7/9/2006 1,570 1,227 78%

Data File Deliverables and Descriptions Four items have been have been delivered to CCFR. 1) A fully labeled SPSS file including Knowledge Network’s standard profile variables, which are owned by Knowledge Networks and licensed to CCFR for analysis and reporting. 2) A topline report, which contains all the frequencies of survey questions and the comparison to available year 2004 data. 3) This field report that documents the study and methodology and contains the final version of the questionnaire. 4) A set of four cross tabulation tables using banner specifications designed by CCFR.

Table 2. Deliverable Description

Delivery Date

File Type File Name

File Size

N Records

Inclusion of Standard

Background Demographics

7/17/06 SPSS CCFR_July_2006_Client.sav 592KB N=1227 Yes

7/20/06 WORD CCFR Topline 2006 - US.doc 3192KB NA NA

7/17/06 WORD CCFR_July_2006_Banner1.doc 3185KB NA NA




Table 3 below shows the name and description of each of the supplemental variables included in the SPSS dataset. Additional variables were created to match those used in the cross tabulation tables specified by CCFR.

Table 3: Supplemental Variables

Variable Name Variable Description

serial Case Identification Number weight Final Post-Stratification Weights dt_start Date interview started tm_start Time interview started dt_end Date interview ended tm_end Time interview ended duration Duration of interview durcat Duration of interview (categorical) ppgender Gender ppage Age ppagecat Age – 7 categories ppagect4 Age – 4 categories ppeduc Education (highest degree received) ppeducat Education – categorical ppethm Race/Ethnicity pphhhead Household head pphhsize Household size pprent Ownership status of living quarters ppdualin Dual Income HH ppincimp HH Income (profile and imputed)

Variable Name Variable Description

ppnet HH Internet status ppmarit Marital status pphouse Housing type ppt01 Total number of HH members age 1 or younger ppt25 Total number of HH members age 2 to 5 ppt612 Total number of HH members age 6 to 12 ppt1317 Total number of HH members age 13 to 17 ppt18ov Total number of HH members age 18 or older ppwork Current Employment Status ppstaten State of residence ppreg4 Region 4 - based on State of residence ppreg9 Region 9 - based on State of residence ppmsacat Metropolitan Statistical Area party7 Political party affiliation - 7 categories party3 Political party affiliation - 3 categories

Key Personnel

Key personnel on the American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy July 2006 study: Mike Dennis – Vice President and Managing Director, Client Service. M. Dennis is based in the Menlo Park office of Knowledge Networks. Phone number: (650) 289-2160 Email: [email protected] Vicki Pineau – Vice President of Statistics. V. Huggins is based in the Menlo Park office of Knowledge Networks. Phone number: (650) 289-2062 Email: [email protected] Stefan Subias – Senior Research Analyst, Custom Research. S. Subias is based in the Menlo Park office of Knowledge Networks. Phone number: (650) 289-2162 Email: [email protected]

Knowledge Networks Methodology

Introduction

Knowledge Networks has recruited the first online research panel that is designed to be representative of the entire U.S. population. The panel is representative because it is recruited using high quality probability sampling techniques, and is not limited to current Web users or computer owners. Knowledge Networks selects households using random digit dialing (RDD) and provides selected households with free hardware and Internet access. This allows surveys to be administered using a Web browser and enables the inclusion of multimedia content. Once a person is recruited to the panel, they can be contacted by e-mail (instead of by phone or mail). This permits surveys to be fielded very quickly and economically. In addition, this approach reduces the burden placed on respondents, since e-mail notification is less obtrusive than telephone calls, and most respondents find answering Web questionnaires to be more interesting and engaging than being questioned by a telephone interviewer.

Panel Recruitment Methodology

Knowledge Networks’ panel recruitment methodology uses the quality standards established by the best Random Digit Dialing (RDD) surveys conducted for the Federal Government. Knowledge Networks utilizes list-assisted RDD sampling techniques on the sample frame consisting of the entire United States telephone population. The sample frame is updated quarterly. Knowledge Networks excludes only those banks of telephone numbers (consisting of 100 telephone numbers) that have zero directory-listed phone numbers. Knowledge Networks’ telephone numbers are selected from the 1+ banks with equal probability of selection for each number. Note that the sampling is done without replacement to ensure that numbers already fielded by Knowledge Networks do not get fielded again. Having generated the initial list of telephone numbers, the sample preparation system excludes confirmed disconnected and non-residential telephone numbers. Next, the sample is screened to exclude numbers that are not in the WebTV Internet Service Provider network. This process results in the exclusion of approximately 6% to 8% of the United States population. This percentage is diminishing steadily and as of July 2001, we will begin to include a small sample from the out of WebTV Internet Service Provider network in the panel to represent these areas and reduce coverage error. Telephone numbers for which Knowledge Networks is able to recover a valid postal address (about 50%) are sent an advance mailing informing them that they have been selected to participate in the Knowledge Networks Panel. In addition to information

about the Knowledge Networks Panel, the advance mailing also contains a monetary incentive to encourage cooperation when the interviewer calls. Following the mailing, the telephone recruitment process begins. The numbers called by interviewers consist of all numbers sent an advance mailing, as well as 50% of the numbers not sent an advance mailing. The resulting cost efficiency more than offsets the decrease in precision caused by the need for sample weights. Cases sent to telephone interviewers are dialed up to 90 days, with at least 15 dial attempts on cases where no one answers the phone, and 25 dial attempts on phone numbers known to be associated with households. Extensive refusal conversion is also performed. Experienced interviewers conduct all recruitment interviews. An interview, which typically requires about 10 minutes, begins with the interviewer informing the household member that they have been selected to join the Knowledge Networks Panel. They are told that in return for completing a short survey weekly, the household will be given a WebTV set-top box and free monthly Internet access. All members in the household are then enumerated, and some initial demographic variables and background information of prior computer and Internet usage are collected. To ensure consistent delivery of survey content, each non-Internet household is provided with identical hardware. Microsoft’s WebTV is the hardware platform currently used by the Knowledge Networks panel. The device consists of a set-top box that connects to a TV and the telephone. It also includes a remote keyboard and pointing device. WebTV has a built-in 56K modem that provides the household with a connection to the Internet. The base unit also has a small hard drive to accommodate large file downloads, including video files. File downloads do not require any user intervention and usually occur during off hours. Prior to shipment, each unit is custom configured with individual email accounts, so that it is ready for immediate use by the household. Most households are able to install the hardware without additional assistance, though Knowledge Networks maintains a telephone technical support line and will, when needed, provide on-site installation. The Knowledge Networks Call Center also contacts household members who do not respond to e-mail and attempts to restore contact and cooperation. All new panel members are sent an initial survey to confirm equipment installation and familiarize them with the WebTV unit. Demographics such as gender, age, race, income, and education are collected for each participant to create a member profile. This information can be used to determine eligibility for specific studies and need not be gathered with each survey. Starting in August 2002, Knowledge Networks began oversampling households that have pre-existing, home-based Internet access, allowing these households to participate in the web-enabled panel using their own equipment and Internet access. These panel members are enrolled into a panel loyalty program intended to encourage long-term participation in the research panel.

Survey Administration

For client-based surveys, a sample is drawn at random from active panel members who meet the screening criteria (if any) for the client’s study. The typical sample size is between 200 and 2000 persons, depending on the purpose of the study. Once selected, members can be sent an advance letter by email several days prior to receiving the questionnaire through their WebTV appliance or personal computer to notify them of an important, upcoming survey. Once assigned to a survey, members receive a notification email on their WebTV or personal computer letting them know there is a new survey available for them to take. The email notification contains a button to start the survey. No login name or password is required. The field period depends on the client’s needs, and can range anywhere from a few minutes to two weeks. Email reminders are sent to uncooperative panel members. If email does not generate a response, a phone reminder is initiated. The usual protocol is to wait at least three days and to permit a weekend to pass before calling. Knowledge Networks also operates an ongoing incentive program to encourage participation and create member loyalty. To assist panel members with their survey taking, each individual has a personalized “home page” that lists all the surveys that were assigned to that member and have yet to be completed.

Survey Sampling from Panel

Once Panel Members are recruited and profiled, they become eligible for selection for specific surveys. In most cases, the specific survey sample represents a simple random sample from the panel. The sample is drawn from eligible members using an implicitly stratified systematic sample design. Customized stratified random sampling based on profile data is also conducted, as required by specific studies. The sample design for the Knowledge Networks Panel Sample begins as an equal probability design that is self-weighting with several known deviations to make the sample more flexible and efficient. Adjustments are calculated and applied to base sampling weights to account for these known deviations. There are also several other sources of survey error that are an inherent part of any survey process such as nonresponse, non-coverage and response error. We address these sources of sampling and nonsampling survey error using multiple adjustments to the weights, which we describe below.

Panel Sample Design Weights The seven sources of deviation from an equal probability sample design are:

1. Subsampling of telephone numbers for which we could not find an address, 2. Random Digit Dial sampling rates proportional to the number of phone lines

in the household, 3. Minor oversampling of Chicago and Los Angeles due to early pilot surveys in

those two cities, 4. Short-term double-sampling the four largest states (CA, NY, FL, and TX) and

central region states, and 5. Under-sampling of households not covered by MSN® TV. 6. Oversampling of minority households (Black and Hispanic) 7. Oversampling of households with personal computers and access to the

Internet. 8. Selection of one adult per household.

A few words about each feature:

1. Once the telephone numbers have been purged and screened, we address match as many of these numbers as possible. The success rate so far has been in the 60-70% range. The telephone numbers with addresses are sent an advance letter, notifying the household that they will be contacted by phone to join the Knowledge Networks panel. The remaining, unmatched numbers were subsampled in the past in order to reduce costs. As of Q1, 2006, we no longer subsample unmatched numbers. 2. As part of the field data collection operation, we collect information on the number of separate phone lines in the selected households. We correspondingly, down-weight the households with multiple phone lines.

3. Two pilot surveys carried out in Chicago and Los Angeles increased the relative size of the sample from these two cities. The impact of this feature is disappearing as the panel grows, but we still include it as part of our correction process. 4. Since we anticipated additional surveying in the four largest states, we double-sampled these states during January-October 2000. Similarly, the Central region states were oversampled for a brief period. 5. Certain areas of the U.S. are not serviced by MSN®. We select a smaller sample of phone numbers in those areas and use other Internet Service Providers for Internet access of recruited households in those areas. 6. As of October 2001, we began oversampling minority households (Black and Hispanic) to increase panel capacity for those subgroups.

7. As of August 2002, we began ovesampling households with personal computers and access to the Internet to reduce the panel costs associated with distributing, set-up and maintenance of MSN®TV units.

8. For most of our surveys, we select panel members across the board, regardless of household affiliation. For some surveys, however, we select members in two stages: households in the first stage and one adult per household in the second stage. We correct for this feature by multiplying the probabilities of selection by 1/ai where ai represents the number of adults (18 and over) in the household.

To reduce the effects of potential nonresponse and noncoverage bias in panel estimates, a cell post-stratification adjustment is applied to panel weights after accounting for sample design factors using demographic distributions from the most recent data from the Current Population Survey. The post-stratification variables include age, race, gender, and Hispanic ethnicity and are applied prior to selection of any client sample from the Knowledge Networks panel.

Sample Design of the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations American Public

Opinion Survey The sample universe for the American Public Opinion Survey is all people 18+ that live in the United States. The sample was selected to obtain a proportionally representative unweighted sample by party affiliation using party affiliation data collected from Knowledge Networks panel members with the following distribution: Republican: 45% Independent/Other: 7% Democrat: 48% Party identification questions were asked again in the field to match the questions used by CCFR. The difference between the KN and CCFR version is that in the follow up question to independents / others the CCFR question has an option for “Neither” while the KN question does not. This difference results in a higher percentage of independents responding to the CCFR question. 1,570 panel members were sampled for the survey, 1,227 completed for a survey completion rate of 78%. Preparation of Final Weights for the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations

American Public Opinion Survey Once the American Public Opinion Survey data was returned from the field, we subjected the final respondent data to a poststratification process to adjust for variable nonresponse and noncoverage. Demographic and geographic distributions from the April 2006 Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the population of adults 18 and older were used as benchmarks in this adjustment.

Additionally, benchmarks on Internet penetration from the Knowledge Networks Panel were used in the post-stratification since they are more current than the CPS data on Internet penetration in the U.S.or unavailable from the CPS. The primary purpose of a poststratification adjustment to CPS and Knowledge Networks panel data is to reduce the sampling variance for characteristics highly correlated with known demographic and geographic totals – called population benchmarks. This adjustment also helps reduce bias due to variable nonresponse. The following benchmark distributions were utilized for the poststratification adjustment of the Study data:

• Gender (Male, Female) • Age (18-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60+) • Race/Hispanic ethnicity (White/Nonhispanic, Black/Nonhispanic,

Other/Nonhispanic, 2+ Races/Nonhispanic, Hispanic) • Education (Less than High School, High School, Some college, Bachelor and

beyond) • Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) • Metropolitan Area (Yes, No) • Internet Access (Yes, No)

Comparable distributions were calculated using all completed cases (1,227) from the survey. Since the sample sizes are typically too small to accommodate a complete crosstabulation of all the survey variables with the benchmark variables, we apply an approach called iterative proportional fitting for the post-stratification weighting adjustment. Iterative proportional fitting ratio adjusts the sample data back to all of the benchmarks by iteratively fitting the weighted sample data to the marginal distributions of the benchmark data until the sample distributions converge to the benchmark distributions. After the post-stratification adjustment, we examined the distribution of the weights calculated above for all survey respondents to identify and truncate outliers to the upper and lower tails of the weight distribution for the sample. Finally, the post-stratified and truncated weights of all were scaled so that the weights sum to the qualified sample size – 1,227.

APPENDIX A: QUESTIONNAIRE INTRO

In this survey, we'd like your opinions about some important foreign relations issues. There is no right or wrong answer and please answer the questions based on your knowledge. If you do not know the answer to a question, you can simply skip it and go on to the next question.

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS

1. When you follow the news these days, how interested are you in news about the relations of the United States with other countries?

Q1 1. Very interested 2. Somewhat interested 3. Hardly interested 4. Don’t follow the news

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 3. Below is a list of possible threats to the vital interest of the United States in the next 10 years. For each one, please select whether you see this as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat at all. [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q310 1. 2. 3. Critical Threat Important but not Critical Not Important [RANDOMIZE]

1. The development of China as a world power 2. Islamic fundamentalism 3. The possibility of unfriendly countries becoming nuclear powers 4. International terrorism 5. Large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the U.S. 6. Economic competition from low-wage countries 7. Global warming 8. AIDS, avian flu, and other potential epidemics 9. Tensions between India and Pakistan 10. Disruption in energy supply 11. A confrontation between mainland China and Taiwan 12. Instability and conflict on the Korean Peninsula 13. Economic competition from Asian countries


5. Below is a list of possible foreign policy goals that the U.S. might have. For each one, please select whether you think that it should be a very important foreign policy goal of the U.S., a somewhat important foreign policy goal, or not an important goal at all. [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q5 1. 2. 3. Very Important Somewhat Important Not Important at All [RANDOMIZE]

1. Protecting weaker nations against foreign aggression 2. Strengthening the United Nations 3. Combating international terrorism 4. Maintaining superior military power worldwide 5. Protecting the jobs of American workers 6. Helping to bring a democratic form of government to other nations 7. Securing adequate supplies of energy 8. Controlling and reducing illegal immigration 9. Helping to improve the standard of living of less developed nations 10. Improving the global environment 11. Preventing the spread of nuclear weapons 12. Promoting and defending human rights in other countries 13. Promoting economic growth 14. Combating world hunger

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 10. Based on what you know, do you think the U.S. should or should not participate in the following treaties and agreements? [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q10 1. 2. Should Participate Should Not Participate [RANDOMIZE]

1. The Kyoto agreement to reduce global warming 2. The treaty that would prohibit nuclear weapon test explosions worldwide 3. The agreement on the International Criminal Court that can try individuals for

war crimes, genocide, or crimes against humanity if their own country won’t try them

4. An agreement under the treaty banning biological weapons that would allow international inspectors to examine biological research laboratories to ensure that countries are not producing biological weapons

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 15. Please select whether you agree or disagree with the following statement.

When dealing with international problems, the U.S. should be more willing to make decisions within the United Nations even if this means that the U.S. will sometimes have to go along with a policy that is not its first choice. [Leave in Order] Q15

1. Agree 2. Disagree

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 25. Thinking about specific steps that could be taken to strengthen the United Nations, here are some options that have been proposed. For each one, select if you would favor or oppose this step. [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q25 1. 2. Favor Oppose [RANDOMIZE]

1 Giving the UN the power to regulate the international arms trade

2 Having a standing UN peacekeeping force selected, trained and commanded by the United Nations

3 Giving the UN the power to fund its activities by imposing a small tax on such things as the international sale of arms or oil

4 Giving the UN the authority to go into coutries in order to investigate violations of human rights

5 Creating an international marshalls service that could

arrest leaders responsible for genocide

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 27. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council are China, France, Russia, Britain, and the United States. Some people have proposed that the permanent membership should be expanded. Would you favor or oppose each of the following specific countries becoming permanent members: Q27 1. Favor 2. Oppose

1. India 2. Japan

3. Germany 4. Brazil 5. South Africa

BASE: EACH COUNTRY THAT WAS SKIPPED IN Q27 27B. You skipped items in the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council are China, France, Russia, Britain, and the United States. Some people have proposed that the permanent membership should be expanded. Would you favor or oppose each of the following specific countries becoming permanent members: Q27B 1. Favor 2. Oppose 3. Depends

1. India 2 Japan 3 Germany 4 Brazil 5 South Africa

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 45. The World Trade Organization was established to rule on disputes over trade treaties. If another country files a complaint with the World Trade Organization and it rules against the U.S., as a general rule, should the U.S. comply with that decision or not? Q45 1. 2. Should Comply Should Not Comply BASE: Q45 SKIPPED 45B. You skipped the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. The World Trade Organization was established to rule on disputes over trade treaties. If another country files a complaint with the World Trade Organization and it rules against the U.S., as a general rule, should the U.S. comply with that decision or not? Q45B 1. 2. 3. Should Comply Should Not Comply Depends BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 50. Here are some positions about the possible use of nuclear weapons by the U.S. Which one comes closest to yours? [READ LIST IN ORDER] Q50

1. The U.S. should never use nuclear weapons under any circumstances. 2. The U.S. should only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack. 3. In certain circumstances, the U.S. should use nuclear weapons even if it has not

suffered a nuclear attack. BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 65. In the past, the international community has agreed that all countries have the right to produce nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes. Now it has been proposed that certain countries not be allowed to develop nuclear fuel out of concern they will use it to develop nuclear weapons. Do you think this proposal is a good idea or a bad idea?

Q65 1. 2. Good idea Bad Idea BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 75. As you may know the U.S. has a law that forbids the U.S. from selling civilian nuclear technology to countries that have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty. India did not sign the treaty and produced nuclear weapons in 1998, so the U.S. has not sold it nuclear technology. Last July, India and the U.S. agreed that the U.S. will change its laws so that it can sell nuclear technology to India, while India will allow the UN’s nuclear agency to inspect some of its nuclear power plants. Here are two arguments on this issue. Which one is closer to yours? [ROTATE] Q75

1. Selling India civilian nuclear technology is a good idea because it will strengthen U.S. – India relations and contribute to peace and stability in Asia

2. Selling India civilian nuclear technology is a bad idea because it will suggest to other countries that they can develop nuclear weapons and get away with it

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 90. As you may know, Iran has recently announced that it has successfully enriched uranium. Do you think that Iran is producing enriched uranium strictly to fuel its energy needs or do you think it is trying to develop nuclear weapons? Q90 1. 2. Energy needs Nuclear weapons BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 95. If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons how much, if at all, would that concern you? Q95 1. 2. 3. 4. Not at all A little Somewhat Very much

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 103. In regard to the possibility of the U.S. undertaking a military strike against Iran’s nuclear energy facilities, do you think the U.S. should:

1. Not undertake a military strike 2. Undertake a military strike, but only if the UN authorizes the strike and other

allies participate 3. Undertake a military strike even if the US has to act on its own

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 115. For each of the following conditions, please indicate when you think countries, on their own, should have the right to go to war with another country they believe may pose a threat to them. 1. 2. Should have the right Should not have the right Q115

1. If they have strong evidence that the other country is acquiring weapons of mass destruction that could be used against them at some point in the future

2. If they have strong evidence that they are in imminent danger of being attacked by the other country

3. To stop neighboring countries from supporting an insurgency within their country 4. To maintain their territorial integrity 5. To preserve access to vital resources such as energy 6. If the other country attacks them first

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 120. Do you think that the UN Security Council should or should not have the right to authorize the use of military force for each of the following purposes: [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q120 1 2 Should Should Not

[RANDOMIZE] 1. To prevent a country that does not have nuclear weapons from acquiring them 2. To prevent severe human rights violations such as genocide 3. To stop a country from supporting terrorist groups 4. To restore by force a democratic government that has been overthrown 5. To defend a country that has been attacked

6. To prevent a country that does not have nuclear weapons from producing nuclear fuel that could be used to produce nuclear weapons


126 Some people say that the UN Security Council has the responsibility to authorize the use of military force to protect people from severe human rights violations such as genocide, even against the will of their own government. Others say that the UN Security Council does not have such a responsibility. Do you think that the UN Security Council does or does not have this responsibility?

Q126 1. 2. Has this responsibility Does not have this responsibility

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS Q128 Do you think that in regards to the violence that is occurring in the Darfur region of Sudan the UN Security Council: QNEW

1. Does not have the right to authorize intervention 2. Has the right, but not a responsibility, to authorize intervention 3. Has a responsibility to authorize intervention

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 129. The UN Security Council has asked Iran to stop enriching uranium. If Iran continues to enrich uranium do you think the UN Security Council should: Q105

1. Not pressure Iran to stop enriching uranium 2. Continue diplomatic efforts to get Iran to stop enriching uranium 3. Impose economic sanctions on Iran 4. Authorize a military strike against Iran’s nuclear energy facilities

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 130. There has been some discussion about the circumstances that might justify using U.S. troops in other parts of the world. Please give your opinion about some situations. Would you favor or oppose the use of U.S. troops: [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q130 1. 2. Favor Oppose [RANDOMIZE]

1. If North Korea invaded South Korea 2. If China invaded Taiwan 3. As part of an international force to keep the peace between India and Pakistan 4. To be part of an international peacekeeping force to enforce a peace agreement

between Israel and the Palestinians

5. To stop a government from committing genocide and killing large numbers of its own people

6. To ensure the oil supply 7. To install democratic governments in states where dictators rule 8. To deal with humanitarian crises 9. If Iran attacked Israel 10. To stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons 11. To be a part of an international peacekeeping force to stop the killing in Darfur

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 140. Below are a number of statements about the Iraq war. Please mark whether you agree or

disagree with each statement.

Q140 1. 2.

Agree Disagree

1. The threat of terrorism has been reduced by the war. 2. The war will lead to the spread of democracy in the Middle East. 3. The war has worsened America's relations with the Muslim world. 4. The experience of the Iraq war should make nations more cautious about using military

force to deal with rogue states. BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 145. Most countries have agreed to rules that prohibit torturing prisoners to extract information. Which comes closer to your point of view? Q145

1. Terrorists pose such an extreme threat that governments should now be allowed to use torture if it may gain information that saves innocent lives

2. Rules against torture should be maintained because torture is morally wrong and weakening these rules may lead to the torture of U.S. soldiers who are held prisoner abroad

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 160. When it comes to economic development do you think the way that the Chinese government manages its economy and its political system is more of an advantage or more of a disadvantage for China?

Q160 1. 2. More of an advantage More of a disadvantage

BASE: Q160 SKIPPED

160B. You skipped the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. When it comes to economic development do you think the way that the Chinese government manages its economy and its political system is more of an advantage or more of a disadvantage for China?

Q160B 1. 2. 3. More of an advantage More of a disadvantage No impact either way

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 165. Turning to something else, do you believe that globalization, especially the increasing connections of our economy with others around the world, is mostly good or mostly bad for the U.S.? [Leave in Order]

Q165 1. Mostly good 2. Mostly bad

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 185. Which of the following three positions comes closest to your point of view about lowering trade barriers such as tariffs? [READ LIST IN ORDER]

Q185

1. I favor agreements to lower trade barriers provided the government has programs to help workers who lose their jobs

2. I favor agreements to lower trade barriers, but I oppose government programs to help workers who lose their jobs

3. I oppose agreements to lower trade barriers BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 190. Overall, do you think international trade is good or bad for: [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q190 1. 2. Good Bad [RANDOMIZE]

1. The U.S. economy 2. American companies 3. Consumers like you 4. Creating jobs in America 5. The environment

6. Job security for American workers 7. Your own standard of living

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 195. Overall, do you think that countries that are part of international trade agreements should or should not be required to maintain minimum standards for working conditions? [Leave in Order] Q195

1. Should be required 2. Should not be required

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 196. Overall, do you think that countries that are part of international trade agreements should or should not be required to maintain minimum standards for protection of the environment? [Leave in Order]

Q265 1. Should be required 2. Should not be required

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 202. In general, do you think that the following countries practice fair trade or unfair trade with the U.S.? [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q202 1. 2. Fair Trade Unfair Trade [RANDOMIZE]

1. The countries of the European Union 2. Japan 3. South Korea 4. China 5. Mexico 6. Canada 7. India 8. Australia

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 205. Currently there is a debate about outsourcing U.S. jobs, that is, moving jobs to countries where wages are lower. Which position is closer to yours? [ROTATE] Q205

1. Outsourcing is mostly a good thing because it results in lower prices in the U.S. which helps stimulate the economy and create new jobs

2. Outsourcing is mostly a bad thing because American workers lose their jobs to people in other countries.

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS Q210. Do you think the U.S. should have a free trade agreement that would lower barriers such as tariffs with each of the following countries?

1. Yes 2. No

Q210

1. Japan 2. China 3. India 4. South Korea [ROTATE 240/245] BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 240. In your opinion, should American companies generally be allowed or not be allowed to purchase a controlling interest in large companies in the following countries:

1. 2. Should be allowed Should not be allowed

Q 240 1. EU countries 2. China 3. Japan 4. India 5. South Korea BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 245. In your opinion, should companies from the following countries generally be allowed or not be allowed to purchase a controlling interest in American companies:

1. 2. Should be allowed Should not be allowed

Q245 1. EU countries 2. China 3. Japan 4. India 5. South Korea BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 250. Please rate how much you think the following countries are leaders in developing new products and technologies. Please answer on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 meaning not at all a leader and 10 meaning very much a leader. Q250 1. U.S. |_|_|

2. India |_|_| 3. China |_|_| 4. South Korea |_|_| 5. Japan |_|_| 6. Germany |_|_| BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 255. Thinking about 10 years from now, please rate how much you think the following countries will be leaders in developing new products and technologies. Please answer on a scale of 0 to 10 with 0 meaning not at all a leader and 10 meaning very much a leader. Q255 1. U.S. |_|_| 2. India |_|_| 3. China |_|_| 4. South Korea |_|_| 5. Japan |_|_| 6.Germany |_|_| BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 260. Should legal immigration into the U. S. be kept at its present level, increased or decreased? [KEEP IN ORDER]

Q260 1. Kept at present level 2. Increased 3. Decreased

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 262. There is a controversy over what the countries of the world, including the U.S., should do about the problem of global warming. Here are three statements. Please tell me which statement comes closest to your own point of view. Q262

1. Until we are sure that global warming is really a problem, we should not take any steps that would have economic costs

2. The problem of global warming should be addressed, but its effects will be gradual, so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost

3. Global warming is a serious and pressing problem. We should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 270. If the less-developed countries make a commitment to limit their greenhouse gas emissions, do you think the developed countries should provide substantial aid to help them?

Q270 1. Yes, should help less-developed countries 2. No, should not provide aid

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 300. Do you think it will be best for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs or if we stay out of world affairs? [Leave in Order] Q300

1. Active part 2. Stay out

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 302. Which statement comes closest to your position? [READ LIST IN ORDER] Q302

1. As the sole remaining superpower, the U.S. should continue to be the preeminent world leader in solving international problems

2. The U.S. should do its share in efforts to solve international problems together with other countries

3. The U.S. should withdraw from most efforts to solve international problems BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 315. Do you think that the United States has the responsibility to play the role of ‘world policeman,’ that is, to fight violations of international law and aggression wherever they occur? Q315

1. Yes 2. No

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 316. Please select if you agree or disagree with the following statement: The U.S. is playing the role of world policeman more than it should be. Q316

1. Agree 2. Disagree

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 318. Do you think the U.S. should or should not make active efforts to ensure that no other country becomes a superpower? Q318

1. Should make active efforts 2. Should not make active efforts

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 323. In your opinion, how important is it that the U.S., China, and India work together on the following: Q323

1. 2. 3. Very important Somewhat important Not very important

1. Reducing competition over vital energy resources like oil and gas 2. Expanding trade 3. Raising the standard of living in Asian countries 4. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions 5. Stopping the spread of nuclear weapons to new countries in Asia 6. Resolving conflicts in Asia BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 324. Thinking about the future, how likely do you think it is that each of the following will be a potential source of conflict between major powers in Asia? Q324 1. 2. 3. Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely 1. Competition over vital energy resources like oil and gas 2. Economic competition between Asian countries 3. The spread of nuclear weapons to new countries in Asia 4. The growth of Chinese military power 5. The situation on the Korean Peninsula 6. Relations between India and Pakistan 7. Relations between mainland China and Taiwan BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 325. In your opinion, are the following countries playing a very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very negative role in resolving the key problems facing Asia? Q325 1. 2. 3. 4.

Very positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative Very negative

1. The U.S. 2. China 3. Japan 4. India

5. South Korea BASE: EACH COUNTRY SKIPPED IN Q325 325B. You skipped items in the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. In your opinion, are the following countries playing a very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very negative role in resolving the key problems facing Asia? Q325B 1. 2. 3. 4.

Very positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative Very negative

5. Neither positive nor negative

1. The U.S. 2. China 3. Japan 4. India 5. South Korea

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 333. Please rate your feelings toward some countries and peoples, with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling, zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling, and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that country or those people. If you have no opinion or have never heard of that country or those people, leave the box blank and move on to the next question. Q333

[RANDOMIZE] 1. North Korea |_|_|_| 2. Germany |_|_|_| 3. Mexico |_|_|_| 4. Israel |_|_|_| 5. Great Britain |_|_|_| 6. China |_|_|_| 7. Saudi Arabia |_|_|_| 8. France |_|_|_| 9. South Korea |_|_|_| 10. India |_|_|_| 11. Japan |_|_|_| 12. Australia |_|_|_| 13. Iran |_|_|_|

14. Indonesia |_|_|_| 15. Iraq |_|_|_|

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 335. Please rate your feelings toward some international organizations, with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling, zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling, and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number, the more favorable your feelings are toward those organizations. If you have no opinion or have never heard of that organization, leave the box blank and move on to the next question. Q335

[RANDOMIZE.] 1. The World Trade Organization (WTO) |_|_|_| 2. The United Nations |_|_|_| 3. The World Bank |_|_|_| 4. Multinational corporations |_|_|_| 5. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) |_|_|_| 6. International human rights groups |_|_|_| 7. The World Court |_|_|_|

8. The World Health Organization (WHO) |_|_|_| BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 338. In your opinion, has U.S. influence in Asia over the past 10 years: Q338

1. Increased 2. Remained about the same 3. Decreased

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 345. I would like to know how much influence you think each of the following countries has in the world. Please answer on a 0 to 10 scale; with 0 meaning they are not at all influential and 10 meaning they are extremely influential. Q345 (READ AND RANDOMLY ROTATE):

1. The United States |_|_| 2. Russia |_|_| 3. Japan |_|_| 4. Germany |_|_| 5. China |_|_| 6. India |_|_| 7. European Union |_|_| 8. Great Britain |_|_| 9. France |_|_|

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 347. On the same 10 point scale how much influence would you want each of the following countries to have in the world: Q347 1. China |_|_| 2. India |_|_| 3. U.S. |_|_| 4. Japan |_|_| 5. European Union |_|_| BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS (EXCLUSIVE FROM Q440) 350. Using the same 10 point scale, please say how much influence you think each of the following countries will have in the world 10 years from now. Q350

[ROTATE] 1. The United States |_|_| 2. Russia |_|_| 3. Japan |_|_| 4. Germany |_|_| 5. China |_|_| 6. India |_|_| 7. European Union |_|_| 8. Great Britain |_|_| 9. France |_|_|

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 352. Do you think that it is more likely that someday China’s economy will grow to be as large as the U.S. economy or that the U.S. economy will always stay larger than China’s? Q 352

1. China's economy will grow as large as the U.S. economy 2. The U.S. economy will always stay larger than China's

BASE: Q ABOVE ‘YES’ RESPONDENTS (Q352=1) 355. Just your best guess; in how many years will China’s economy become as large as the U.S. economy? [NUMBER BOX, RANGE 1 TO 999] BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 356. If China’s economy were to grow to be as large as the U.S. economy, do think that would be mostly positive, mostly negative, or equally positive and negative? Q 356

1. 2. 3. Mostly positive Mostly negative Equally positive and negative BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 358. Do you think the U.S. loans more money to China or that China loans more money to the U.S.? Q 358 1. U.S. loans more to China

2. China loans more to U.S. 3. They loan each other about the same amount of money

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 365. Thinking about what will happen in the next 50 years, do you believe that: Q365

1. The United States will continue to be the world’s leading power 2. Another nation will become as powerful as the United States 3. The United States will be surpassed in power by another nation

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 377. For each of the following possible future trends, please tell me if you would see it as mainly positive or mainly negative: Q377

1. 2. Mainly positive Mainly negative

1. China becomes significantly more powerful economically than it is today 2. China becomes significantly more powerful militarily than it is today 3. India becomes significantly more powerful militarily than it is today 4. India becomes significantly more powerful economically than it is today 5. The U.S. becomes significantly less powerful militarily than it is today 6. The U.S. become significantly less powerful economically than it is today

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 400. In your view, which continent is more important to the U.S. - Asia or Europe? Q400

1. Asia 2. Europe

BASE: Q400 IS SKIPPED 400B. You skipped the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. In your view, which continent is more important to the U.S. - Asia or Europe?

Q400B

1. Asia 2. Europe 3. Both equally important

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 405. In terms of American vital interests today, which country is more important to the United States – Japan or China? Q405

1. Japan 2. China

BASE: Q405 IS SKIPPED 405B. You skipped the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. In terms of American vital interests today, which country is more important to the United States – Japan or China? Q405B

1. Japan 2. China 3. Both equally important

Trilateral Cooperation/Competition BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 425. In your opinion are relations of the United States with the following countries improving, worsening or staying about the same.

1. 2. 3. Improving Worsening Staying about the same

Q425

1. China 2. India 3. Japan 4. Mexico 5. South Korea 6. European Union BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 427 How much do you trust the following countries to act responsibly in the world?

Q427 1. 2. 3. 4.

Not at all Not very much Somewhat A great deal 1. China 2. India 3. Japan BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 430. How much do you think the following countries take the interests of the U.S. into account when making foreign policy decisions? Q430

1. 2. 3. 4. Not at all Not very much Somewhat A great deal Q430 1. China 2. India 3. Japan BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 435. How much do you trust the following countries to keep their commitments?

1. 2. 3. 4. Not at all Not very much Somewhat A great deal Q435 1. China 2. India 3. Japan BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 445a. In dealing with the rise of China’s power, do you think the U.S. should: Q445a

1. Undertake friendly cooperation and engagement with China 2. Actively work to limit the growth of China’s power BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 455. At present, are the following countries mostly rivals or mostly partners?

1. 2. Mostly Rivals Mostly Partners

Q455 1. U.S. and India 2. U.S. and China 3. China and India

4. China and Japan 5. U.S. and Japan BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS

465. The United States currently has about 30,000 troops in South Korea. In your view, is that:

Q465 1. Too many 2. Too few 3. About right

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 470. If North Korea were to attack South Korea, would you favor or oppose the U.S. contributing military forces, together with other countries, to a UN sponsored effort to reverse the aggression? Q470

1. Favor 2. Oppose

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 475. Thinking about long-term military bases the U.S. has overseas, do you think the U.S. should have more bases overseas, fewer bases overseas, or about as many as it has now? Q475

1. More bases 2. Fewer bases 3. About as many as it has now

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 480. Do you think the United States should or should not have long-term military bases in the following places? [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q480 1. 2. Should have Should not have

[RANDOMIZE] 1. Germany 2. Turkey 3. Japan 4. Guantanamo Bay in Cuba 5. Saudi Arabia 6. Iraq 7. Pakistan

8. South Korea 9. Afghanistan

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 490. Do you think that the U.S. military presence in East Asia should be increased, maintained at its present level, or do you think it should be decreased? Q490 1. 2. 3. Increased Decreased Maintained BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 495. Do you think that most people in East Asia want the U.S. military presence there to be increased, maintained at its present level, or do you think most people want it decreased? Q495 1. 2. 3.

Increased Decreased Maintained BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 500. If most people in East Asia want the U.S. to reduce its military presence there, do you think that it should or should not do so? Q500 1. 2. Should Should not BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 600. The countries of the European Union have introduced a common currency. To the best of your knowledge, what is this currency called? [TEXT] Q600 (FOR CODING)

1. Euro 2. Other [SPECIFY AT Q1036] 3. Not sure (VOL) 4. Decline to answer (VOL) 5. No answer

BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 605. If you happen to know the name of the Secretary General of the United Nations, please enter it here. [TEXT]

700. Please select whether you agree or disagree with the following statement.

When dealing with common problems, the U.S. and Mexico should be more willing to make decisions jointly, even if this means that the U.S., as well as Mexico, will sometimes have to go along with a policy that is not its first choice. [Leave in Order]

1 Agree 2 Disagree

701. Would you favor or oppose an agreement between Mexico and the United States in which

Mexico would permit the U.S. to invest in its oil and energy sectors, and the U.S. would provide greater financing for Mexico’s economic development? [Leave in Order]

1 Favor 2 Oppose

702. Do you think that in the future there will or will not be greater economic integration

between the countries of North America, Mexico, Canada and the Unites States? [Leave in Order]

1 There will be 2 There will not be

703. Do you think that in the future there will or will not be greater political integration

between the countries of North America (Mexico, Canada and the United States) similar to what is occurring among the European countries? [Leave in Order]

1. There will be 2. There will not be

Demographic Questions [Intro] We would now like to ask you a few background questions. [SP] Q1040 What is your religious preference?

1 Protestant 2 Catholic 3 Jewish 4 Muslim 5 Other (please specify) 6 No religion [SP] [Q1040= 1] Q1042 Which one of these words best describes your kind of Christianity? 1 Fundamentalist, evangelical, charismatic, or Pentecostal 2 Moderate to liberal [q1040=1..5] Q1043. How often do you attend religious services?

1 More than once a week 2 Once a week 3 Once or twice a month 4 A few times a year 5 Once a year or less 6 Never

Q1010 Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what?

1 Republican 2 Democrat 3 Independent 4 Other

[Q1010=1] Q1015 Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican?

1 Strong Republican 2 Not very strong Republican

[Q1010=2] Q1020 Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat?

1 Strong Democrat 2 Not very strong Democrat

[Q1010 not equal 1 or 2]

Q1025 Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

1 Republican Party 2 Democratic Party 3 Neither

Q1005. In general, do you think of yourself as…

1 Extremely liberal 2 Slightly liberal 3 Moderate, middle of the road 4 Slightly conservative 5 Conservative 6 Extremely conservative

SAMPLING REPORT STRUCTURE (Chicago Council – China / India)

Sample Type (e.g., Stratified Random Sample, Random, etc):

China India Stratified Multi-stage PPS Random Sample Stratified Random Sample Coverage (e.g., National, Urban, Major Metropolitan areas, etc.)

China India National National (Our survey design covers 97 % area

geographically and 98% demographically) Populations excluded (if any)

China India People under 18 North East (3 % area geographically and 2%

demographically) Weights

China India According to the newly 1% population census of China, on the Nov. 11 ,2005, the percent of people live in city/town is 42.99%, and the percent of people live in village is 57.01%. In my SPSS data, variable a2 is used to definite city/town or village. You can use a2 to weight the data. The weight index for urban sample (a2=1) is 0.6141 and for village sample (a2=2) is 1.9.

The sampling scheme selected allowed for achieving a proper demographic profile thus no response balancing was required depending upon those parameters. There does exist on factor that we need to mention here. We accept that the different constituencies have different population size and thus these differences should have been weighted into. But we have not tried to do this the reason for this is that we have already excluded the constituencies with very small electorate size. The seats that are left have a standard deviation of approximately 1% about the mean, which we do not consider too big to invite special weighting.

Comments

China India NONE Due to the intellectual nature of the survey subject;

maximum non-response is from the rural areas, specially the females and illiterate respondents, who practically know very less on international relations and current affairs. This makes them under-represented in the final completed data file.

CHINA. Detailed Sampling Procedure: The nationally representative sample would be drawn by a stratified multi-stage sampling method.

Firstly, Stratify all the 31 provinces into three strata (districts) according to their geographical location and their HDI (Human Development Index) shown as Table 1(the numbers at the brackets are the ranks of the respective HDI).

The sample size distributed in each stratum is shown as Table 1 too.

Table 1 Three Strata of National Provinces

Stratum Provinces included Percent of

Popu Sample Size

1 （East ）

Shanghai(1)，Beijing(2)，Tianjin(3)，Liaoning(5)，Shandong(9)，Jiangsu(7)，Zhejiang(6)，Fujian(8)，Guangdong(4)，Hainan(13)

30.3 600

2 （Middle）

Heilongjiang(10)，Jilin(12)，Hebei(11)，Henan(18)，Shanxi(16)， Anhui(20)，Jiangxi(23)，Hubei(14)，Hunan(17)

41.1 800

3 （West）

Neimenggu(21)，Xinjiang(15)，Ningxia(26)，Shan’xi(25)， Gansu(28)，Qinghai(29)，Chongqing（22），Sichuan（24）， Guangxi(19)，Yunnan(27)，Guizhou(30)，Xizang(31)

28.6 600

100.0 2000

The sample sizes n1 for urban area (also named city/town) is 1400 and the sample size n2 for rural area (also named village) is 600.

The multi-stages for the sampling are as follows:

Stage 1:

To draw city areas which include cities and their suburbs (both near suburbs and far ones) by use of PPS method. The selected city area is shown on table 2.

Table2 Selected city area

Stratum Selected city area (Province : City area) 1

（East ）

Beijing: Beijing Zhejiang: Wenzhou Guangdong: Huizhou

2 （Middle）

Jilin : Liaoyuan Hebei : Shijiazhuang Henan : Luoyang Hubei : Yichang

3 （West）

Xinjiang : Wulumuqi Sichuan : Mianyang Yunnan : Kunming

Stage 2:

In each selected city area, 28 Juweihui was selected in urban areas and 4 villages were drawn in rural areas.

Stage 3:

In each Juweihui, 5 households were drawn randomly. In each village, 15 households were drawn randomly.

Stage 4:

In each household, to select 1 person who is old than 18 to interview use the method shown in table 3.

Table 3 Random Digit Table Used to Determine Respondent at Home

Household Member Serial Number of Household Serial Number

Name Sex Age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2

3 3 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3 1 2 3

4 4 1 3 2 2 3 1 4 3 2 4 1

5 5 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 5 4 2

6 6 3 1 5 2 4 3 5 1 4 6 2

7 7 1 4 3 6 2 5 2 5 7 4 3

8 8 4 5 7 1 2 6 3 7 5 3 1

9 9 5 1 4 3 8 2 7 6 5 2 8

10 10 3 5 9 4 1 7 2 8 6 9 4

11 11 6 1 5 10 4 9 8 3 2 7 6

12 12 7 2 9 4 11 6 1 8 3 10 5

INDIA. Detailed Sampling Procedure: Target Population, Population coverage, Geographic coverage

The target population for this survey has been all the adult (more than 18 years of age) population of the country that is eligible for voting. To draw out our sample from this we have gone for multiple levels of random and stratified random sampling scheme.

Sampling frame (Areas, starting points, registers)

There are 543 Parliamentary areas in India spread across 28 states and 6 Union Territories. Of these barring seats in 6 North Eastern states units and Us comprising of total 17 Parliamentary areas, our survey design covers 97 % area geographically and 98% demographically across 526 Parliamentary areas of the country.

Remark (Problems, deviations, modifications) The regions in a state are a relatively homogenous body as far as surveys are concerned also it is easy to administer the surveys from these state capitals and regional HQs. The states in the North Eastern parts of India are relatively inaccessible and also the dynamics there is quite different from that of the rest of the country. The costs associated with this type of exercise are also exorbitantly high for these areas. These considerations prompted us to leave these states from our opinion poll. These areas along with the union territories (leaving the NCR of Delhi) constitute less than two percent of the total population of the country. Our surveys have not been conducted in these areas. As far as the number of seats in the parliament is concerned they constitute three percent of all the seats (17/543). Another reason for excluding these areas has been the fact that the constituency size in terms of population has been very small compared to the all India average. Thus, we have applied this first level of stratification where we have gone by ease of conducting the exercise and our guiding principles have been the costs involved and the security of our researcher.

Sampling design (Sampling stages, Clusters, Primary/secondary sampling units, Selection procedures) Stage 1: From among the 526 Parliamentary areas across the main 22 state units we have gone for random selection of an exclusive set of 108 constituencies. Through the use of a routine written using visual basic. The code for this Microsoft Excel macro can be given if required. Also the list of all the constituencies selected can bee given when required.

These 108 constituencies selected proportional to population; even if they are geographically small in size, selection is being based on the size of the target population.

Stage 2: The sample (respondent) selection from within these constituencies has been as per the plan given on the next page (this also constituted the part of the Field instruction sheet given to the senior researcher in the field). In each parliamentary seat a team worth 6 man-days is sent.

Each researcher conducts 8 interviews a day. The Muslim and Dalit localities are separately given to make sure their proper representation. In general their response rate is poor and these should be considered as ’booster samples’ rather than ’quota samples’. Stage 3: Locality Selection Guide: 1 polling booth area randomly selected from the EC list of that assembly segment Stage 4: Household Selection Guide: First household of a randomly selected respondent from the EC list in that booth area is to be taken as first and after that, every tenth household from the EC list.

Stage 5: Respondent selection Guide: Only one respondent per household to be picked from among the respondents (greater than 18 yrs of age) selected randomly from the EC list of that household.

Remark (Problems, deviations, modifications, substitution) Through this sampling scheme we have been able to ensure the age profile and the representation of the SC/ST and the Muslim voters. The target number of respondents in each constituency has thus been 48. And the total number of target respondents has thus been equal to 5185 in one round. In case if the particular respondent is not available in the house at the time when the researcher visits the researcher has to move to the next household randomly marked from the list immediately. No attempt was to be made to revisit the house in which the required respondent was not found.

Sample size (Gross sample size, expected net sample size) Gross sample size = 5185 Completed sample size = 3132 Response rate= 60% Special Features of the design (Unequal sampling probabilities etc.) Field Work Quality Control: Every step has been taken to ensure the quality of the data collected. The team in each constituency is led by one of the researchers of cvoter, who has been trained for the fieldwork exercise in house. This coordinator heads a team of six to ten local researchers who have been selected from our past database of researchers. At least one questionnaire is administered in presence of the coordinator by each of the researcher. The coordinator also has the responsibility to check that the researchers code in the responses legibly in the OMR response sheet. Before taking the researchers to the field the coordinator thoroughly briefs his team and clarifies their doubts. Thus about 10% of the samples were back checked or spot-checked. Most of the times our coordinators have themselves spot-checked the personal profile part of the respondent so as to ensure that the sampling methodology has been followed properly. Data Analysis Tools and data preparation for analysis: We have used excel and SPSS for the data analysis and data preparation. Microsoft excel has been used for the general data preparation tasks due to its relatively easy interface and also its easy programmability through the use of visual basic macros. Also all the random selection routines and the data weighing /balancing exercises have been carried out by the use of excel. SPSS has been used for the frequency calculations and the cross tabulations of different variables.

GLOBAL VIEWS 2006

THE CHICAGO COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS

COMPARATIVE TOPLINE REPORTS

October 11, 2006

2

Contents Introduction

Objectives and Overview Survey Findings (Question Ordering and Page Numbering)

Question Topic General Population Survey

Question Number Topline Report Page Number

Follow news Q1 6 Threats to Vital Interests in Next 10 Years Q3 6-11 Foreign Policy Goals Q5 11-16 Treaties and Agreements Q10 16-17 Joint Decision Making with UN Q15 18 Steps to strengthen the UN Q25 18-19 Expanding the UNSC Q27 20-21 Compliance with WTO Rules Q45 21 Position on Use of Nuclear Weapons Q50 22 Disallowing Production of Nuclear Fuel Q65 22 U.S. – India Nuclear Agreement Q75 22 Iran Developing Nuclear Weapons Q90 23 Concern Over Iran Nuclear Weapons Q95 24 U.S. strike against Iran Nuclear Energy Facilities Q103 24 The Right to Go to War Q115 25-26 When the UNSC Can Authorize Military Force Q120 26-28 UNSC Responsibility to Prevent Genocide Q126 28-29 UNSC and Darfur Intervention Q128 29 UNSC and Iran Continued Uranium Enrichment Q129 29-30 Justification for Use of U.S. Troops Q130 30-33 Statements About the Iraq War Q140 33-34 Torture of Prisoners Q145 34 China Political and Economic Governance Q160 35 Globalization Q165 34 Spread of Cultures Q170 35-36 Position on Lowering Trade Barriers Q185 36-37

3

International Trade Q190 37-39 Standards for Minimum Working Conditions Q195 39 Trade Agreements and Protecting the Environment Q196 40 Countries and Fair Trade Q202 40-43 Outsourcing jobs Q205 43 Free Trade Agreements to Lower Tarrifs Q210 44-45 East Asia Free Trade Area Q215 45 East Asia Regional Community Q220 46 Economic Integration between Asian Countries Q225 46 Political Integration between Asian Countries Q230 46-47 Controlling Interest - Other Countries’ Companies Q240 47-49 Controlling Interest - Own Country’s Companies Q245 49-51 Leaders in New Products and Technologies Now Q250 51-53 Leaders in New Products/Technologies in 10 Yrs. Q255 53-55 Legal Immigration Into U.S. Q260 56 Global Warming Q262 56 Aid to Limit Greenhouse Gas Emissions Q270 57 Aid to Limit Greenhouse Gas Emissions Q280 57 Active Part in World Affairs Q300 57-58 Superpower and Solving International Problems Q302 58 U.S. Responsibility of World Policeman Q315 58-59 U.S. World Policeman More Than it Should Be Q316 59 U.S. to Prevent Another Superpower Q318 60-62 U.S., China, and India working together Q323 59-60 Conflict Between Major Powers in Asia Q324 62-64 Countries in Resolving Problems in Asia Q325 64-66 Border Dispute between India and China Q330 66 Resolving Tensions between China and Japan Q331 66-67 Thermometer of Countries and People Q333 67-72 Thermometer of Organizations Q335 72-76 U.S. Role in Asia in Past 10 Years Q338 76 Influence of Countries in Asia Q340 77-79 Influence of Countries Now Q345 80-82 Preference for Influence of Countries Q347 83-84 Influence of Countries 10 Years from Now Q350 84-87 China’s Economy as Large as the U.S. Economy Q352 87 When Will China’s be as Large as U.S. Economy Q355 88 Opinion if China Grows as Large as U.S. Q356 88 U.S. - China Loans of Money Q358 88-89 U.S. power in 50 Years Q365 89 Future Economic and Military Trends Q377 89-91 Asia or Europe More Important to U.S. Q400 91 Japan or China More Important to U.S. Q405 92 U.S. or China More Important to India Q410 92 U.S. or Japan More Important to China Q415 92-93 U.S. or China More Important to Japan Q416 93 Relations Between Countries Q425 93-95 Trust to Act Responsibly Q427 96-97 Trust to Take Interests Into Account Q430 97-98

4

Trust to Keep Commitments Q435 98-99 Dealing with the Rise of China Q445 99-100 Countries Rivals or Partners Q455 100-101 U.S. Troops in South Korea Q465 101-102 Use of U.S. Military in Korea Q470 102 Long-term U.S. Military Bases Q475 102-103 Long-term U.S. Military Bases in Countries Q480 103-106 U.S. Military Presence in East Asia Q490 106 U.S. Military in East Asia and People’s Opinion Q495 106-107 U.S. Military in East Asia Reduced if Requested Q500 107 Effect of U.S. Military Presence on Stability in Asia Q505 107-108 EU Common Currency Q600 108 UN Secretary General Q605 108-109

Introduction United States The survey of the United States was conducted by Knowledge Networks, a polling, social science, and market research firm in Menlo Park, California. The survey was conducted between June 23 and July 9, 2006, with a sample of 1,227 American adults who had been randomly selected from KN’s respondent panel and answered questions on screens in their own homes. The margin of sampling error is approximately plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey was fielded using a randomly selected sample of KN’s large-scale, nationwide research panel. This panel is itself randomly selected from the national population of households having telephones and subsequently provided Internet access for the completion of surveys (and thus is not limited to those who already have Internet access). The distribution of the sample in the Webenabled panel closely tracks the distribution of United States Census counts for the U.S. population on age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, geographical region, employment status, income, education, etc. The panel is recruited using stratified randomdigit-dial (RDD) telephone sampling. RDD provides a nonzero probability of selection for every U.S. household having a telephone. Households that agree to participate in the panel are provided with free Web access and an Internet appliance, which uses a telephone line to connect to the Internet and uses the television as a monitor. For more information about the methodology, please go to www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp. China The survey of China was conducted by the international polling firm GlobeScan. The survey was conducted July 10-21, 2006, with a sample of 2,000 respondents, but was subsequently reduced to 1,964 after screening out respondents who were illiterate or who had no formal education whatsoever, giving the results a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. The sample was nationally representative of those eighteen years of age or older and was drawn by a stratified multistage sampling method. All thirty-one provinces were divided into three strata according to their geographical location and their HDI (Human Development Index). The sample was weighted to represent the 2005 census that indicated that 43% of people live in cities or towns and 57% of people live in villages.

5

India The survey of India was conducted by the international polling firm GlobeScan. The survey was conducted July 9-27, 2006. The original sample included 3,132 respondents, but was subsequently reduced to 2,458 after screening out respondents who were illiterate or who had no formal education whatsoever, giving the results a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 2 percent points. The sample was a representative stratified random sample of all adults, age eighteen years of age or older. The sample was a nationwide sample drawing from 97% of the population geographically and 98% demographically across 526 parliamentary areas of the country. Respondents in the northeastern part of the country, representing 2% of the population and 3% of parliamentary areas, were not polled due to the relatively inaccessible nature of these respondents and other factors. Australia The survey of Australia was conducted by Market Focus International for the Lowy Institute. The survey was conducted between June 19 and July 6, 2006, with a sample of 1,007 respondents providing a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The sample is a nationally representative stratified random sample of all adults, age eighteen years of age or older, drawn using a RDD sampling method. Quotas were set for each state, age group, and sex. Interviews were conducted by telephone using a RDD sampling method until all sample quotas were filled. South Korea The survey of South Korea was conducted by Hankook Research Company for the East Asian Institute. The survey was conducted between June 16 and July 7, 2006, with a nationally representative sample of 1,024 adults nineteen years or older, providing a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The interviews were conducted face-to-face. The sample was a drawn from fifteen of the sixteen administrative divisions of South Korea based on a multistage quota sampling method. The national population was categorized into sixteen groups by administrative divisions, five groups by age and two groups by sex. The quota of samples was then calculated by region, age, and sex based on the 2005 Korean Census. Households were randomly selected in every region according to the quota. In the final step, weights were applied to the dataset in order to match the sampling-quota by region, sex, and age more precisely.

6

Detailed Findings Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding∗ Question 1 Question 1: When you follow the news these days, how interested are you in news about the relations of [survey country] with other countries ?

1. Follow News

(N=)

Very interested

Somewhat interested

Hardly interested

Don’t follow the news

Not sure/ Decline Total

(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

U.S. 38 46 10 6 0 100 China 20 55 16 6 1 100

India 38 29 18 15 -- 100

South Korea 16 63 19 2 -- 100 Australia 50 41 6 4 -- 100

Question 3 (1-15) Question 3 (1-15): Below is a list of possible threats to the vital interest of [survey country] in the next 10 years. For each one, please select whether you see this as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat at all.

3/1. The development of China as world power

(N=)

Critical Important but not critical Not important Not sure/ Decline Total (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

U.S. 36 54 8 2 100 China n/a n/a n/a n/a India 43 31 18 9 100 South Korea 49 42 8 1 100 Australia 25 52 22 1 100

∗ Knowledge Networks calculated numbers to 2 decimal places before final rounding on all questions.

7

3/2. Islamic fundamentalism

(N=)


U.S. 43 41 12 3 100 China 10 30 33 27 100 India 52 27 12 9 100 South Korea 9 43 41 7 100 Australia 60 29 9 2 100

3/3. The possibility of unfriendly countries becoming nuclear powers

(N=)



3/4. International Terrorism

(N=)



8

3/5. Large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into [survey country].

(N=)


U.S. 51 40 9 1 100 China n/a n/a n/a n/a India n/a n/a n/a n/a South Korea 30 53 17 1 100 Australia 31 44 24 1 100

3/6. Economic competition from low-wage countries

(N=)


U.S. 32 55 11 1 100 China n/a n/a n/a n/a India n/a n/a n/a n/a South Korea 29 50 19 2 100 Australia 34 49 16 0 100

3/7. Global Warming

(N=)



9

3/8. AIDS, avian flu, and other potential epidemics

(N=)


U.S. 49 45 5 1 100 China 65 25 8 3 100 India 60 22 9 9 100 South Korea 59 36 6 -- 100 Australia 58 36 6 0 100

3/9. Tensions between India and Pakistan

(N=)


U.S. 17 64 16 3 100 China 15 41 27 17 100 India 53 29 12 7 100 South Korea n/a n/a n/a n/a Australia n/a n/a n/a n/a

3/10. Disruption in energy supply

(N=)



10

3/11. A confrontation between mainland China and Taiwan

(N=)


U.S. 18 64 16 2 100 China n/a n/a n/a n/a India 32 31 21 17 100 South Korea 8 56 33 3 100 Australia 33 44 18 5 100

3/12. Instability and conflict on the Korean Peninsula

(N=)



3/13. Economic competition from Asian countries

(N=)



11

3/14. The U.S military presence in Asia

(N=)


U.S. n/a n/a n/a n/a China 38 33 14 15 100 India 42 30 15 13 100 South Korea 12 52 35 2 100 Australia n/a n/a n/a n/a

3/15. Economic competition from the U.S.

(N=)


U.S. n/a n/a n/a n/a China 29 40 18 13 100 India 39 30 15 16 100 South Korea n/a n/a n/a n/a Australia n/a n/a n/a n/a

Question 5

Question 5 (1-15): Below is a list of possible foreign policy goals that [survey country] might have. For each one please select whether you think that it should be a very important foreign policy goal of [survey country], a somewhat important foreign policy goal, or not an important goal at all?

5/1. Protecting weaker nations against foreign aggression

(N=)

Very important

Somewhat important Not important

Not sure/ Decline Total

(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

U.S. 22 65 11 5 100 China 40 44 11 5 100 India 52 27 14 7 100 South Korea n/a n/a n/a n/a Australia 64 32 4 0 100

12

5/2. Strengthening the United Nations

(N=)

Very important Somewhat important Not important Not sure/ Decline Total (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)


5/3. Combating International Terrorism

(N=)



5/4. Maintaining [building] superior military power worldwide

(N=)


U.S. 55 36 7 2 100 China 40 36 18 11 100 India 50 30 13 7 100 South Korea n/a n/a n/a n/a Australia n/a n/a n/a n/a

13

5/5. Protecting the jobs of [survey country] workers

(N=)



5/6. Helping to bring a democratic form of government to other nations

(N=)


U.S. 17 57 24 2 100 China n/a n/a n/a n/a India 41 29 14 16 100 South Korea 21 56 22 2 100 Australia 38 44 17 1

Documents

ICPSR 4650 PublicOpinionandForeignPolicy intheUnitedStates ... · ppt25 Total number of HH members age 2 to 5 ppt612 Total number of HH members age 6 to 12 ppt1317 Total number of