ICICIdirect_Pledgedshares_November2011

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  • 8/3/2019 ICICIdirect_Pledgedshares_November2011

    1/4CICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

    November 24, 2011

    edged Shares

    Promoters resort to various modes of raising finance to meet their business and personal needs. Loan against shares is

    one such method of raising finance. Under this method, promoters pledge the shares held by them with lenders to get the

    required financing. These loans typically have tenure of one to three years and carry a margin requirement of two or three

    times. Simply put, it means that the value of the promoters shares pledged is two to three times the amount of loan.

    The method appears beneficial for promoters as well as lenders. The promoters get access to quick short-term financing

    whereas lenders charge premium rates for this short-term financing arrangement and also have about twice the value of

    the loan as pledge of shares with a right to sell the shares if the promoter defaults in repayment or if the value of pledged

    securities goes down.

    The risks associated with pledging of shares are quite significant particularly from the promoters perspective. In case of

    default, a lender can sell the shares in the open market to recover their dues, which could result in a fall in stock price and

    erosion of market capitalisation. Also, promoters run the risk of losing management control if a significant portion of their

    holding is pledged.

    The term pledging of shares is looked upon with a needle of suspicion by investors. In a scenario of rising stock prices,

    there is no concern but if the price of the shares declines to a certain level, the promoters are required to make somepayment or pledge more shares. If the promoter defaults or is unable to provide further shares as margin, then the lender

    has a right to sell the shares in the open market. Usually the quantity of shares sold by lenders is large resulting in an

    erosion of stock price. Companies with a high proportion of pledged promoter holding are susceptible to such erosion in

    stock prices. Investors tend to be wary of investing in such companies.

    In the last 10 quarters, from the data available on pledged shares, we have been able to decipher that promoters have

    utilised pledging of shares to get loans on a regular basis. On an average, 8-9% of the promoters holding has been

    pledged during June 2009-September 2011. In the quarter ended September 2011, the percentage of promoter holding

    pledged has increased from 9.1% in June 2011 to 9.5%, whereas the percentage of total equity pledged has increased

    from 5.0% in June 2011 to 5.1% in September 2011. From June 2009 to December 2010, the Sensex was on a constant up

    move due to which pledging would not have caused alarm bells to ring as the value of shares would not have seen much

    of erosion in value. However, recently the markets have been weak. The Sensex has corrected by ~ 20% in the last three

    quarters, resulting in an erosion of market capitalisation of stocks and, hence, the value of shares pledged for securing

    loans. In such a scenario, companies that have taken loans against shares have to provide further margin in cash or pledge

    more securities to maintain the margin requirement. The companies that default may face the situation of selling of

    pledged shares by lenders resulting in a decline in stock prices and reduction in promoter holding.

    Exhibit 1: Aggregate pledged shares (%)

    8.8 8.4 8.3 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.1 9.5

    5.1

    5.05.15.1

    5.05.15.1

    4.54.64.7

    17465 17528 17701

    2006919445

    1645417127

    14494

    18846

    20509

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    Jun-09

    Sep-09

    Dec-09

    Mar-10

    Jun-10

    Sep-10

    Dec-10

    Mar-11

    Jun-11

    Sep-11

    %

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    14000

    16000

    18000

    20000

    22000

    percentage of prom oter holding pledged percentage of total equity pledged S ens ex (RHS )

    Source: Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

  • 8/3/2019 ICICIdirect_Pledgedshares_November2011

    2/4CICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

    November 24, 2011

    edged Shares

    We have analysed the data of companies that have disclosed the number of shares pledged by them for Q3CY11 and

    Q2CY11. We have filtered companies that have a minimum of promoter holding pledged at 50% in Q2CY11 and have

    either increased or decreased the percentage of promoter equity pledged. The sentiment can turn positive/negative for

    the stocks according to their actions related to pledging.

    Exhibit 2: Companies with increase in proportion of pledged shares

    Co_Name

    Percentage

    (Sept 2011)

    Percentage

    pledged

    (Sept 2011)

    Percentage

    pledged

    (June 2011)

    QoQ

    increase

    (%) in

    Promoter

    holding

    pledged 3 month 6 month 1 year

    No of equity

    shares

    (Sept 2011)

    CMP (|)

    (22/11/2011)

    Raj Oil Mills 34.4 93.1 58.9 58.0 -45.3 -64.9 -79.3 3.6 11.1

    JSL Stain. 39.6 87.7 57.5 52.4 -19.0 -15.8 -33.5 18.8 73.1

    ICSA (India) 21.5 98.5 65.6 50.1 -35.5 -62.1 -70.3 4.8 42.4

    Atlanta 73.7 77.8 52.0 49.6 -16.0 -16.8 -34.1 8.2 59.1

    SpiceJet 38.6 86.2 58.1 48.3 -12.1 -47.9 -74.7 40.6 21.4

    Cinemax India 68.6 82.0 57.4 43.0 -1.4 -17.7 -46.4 2.8 30.9

    Mangalore Chem. 30.4 88.7 63.7 39.1 9.6 8.3 -18.2 11.9 32.6

    Omaxe 89.1 81.6 67.8 20.3 9.1 4.0 -5.2 17.4 136.2

    Surya Pharma. 38.1 73.2 61.3 19.5 -26.2 -42.8 -60.7 20.3 12.0

    Paramount Comm. 34.7 100.0 86.4 15.7 -9.7 -33.8 -63.2 9.3 2.6

    Spentex Inds. 52.6 100.0 87.0 14.9 -26.6 -58.7 -71.7 8.3 6.8

    C & C Constrn. 64.8 69.7 63.9 9.2 -12.8 -11.0 -58.5 2.3 96.4

    Dharamsi Morarji 47.8 96.5 89.1 8.4 0.3 -21.6 -40.8 2.1 10.5

    Karur KCP Pack. 64.4 74.9 69.4 8.0 -20.6 -37.3 -61.4 1.1 23.8

    Surya Chak.Pow. 26.7 94.6 87.9 7.6 -47.3 -63.1 -78.0 15.0 4.4

    Lokesh Mach. 54.7 78.3 73.0 7.3 -1.5 -5.5 -33.1 1.2 39.8

    JP Power Ven. 76.5 63.6 59.5 7.0 -5.8 -27.5 -39.8 262.5 34.8

    Suzlon Energy 54.8 69.4 65.0 6.8 -43.3 -56.3 -57.6 177.7 22.2

    Kemrock Inds. 28.9 65.6 61.7 6.2 -2.4 -0.5 -26.6 1.7 503.6

    Guj NRE Coke 45.9 88.3 83.5 5.8 -34.6 -62.6 -66.3 52.5 18.7

    Gemini Comm. 40.8 69.4 65.7 5.7 15.6 7.6 -21.5 10.7 22.6

    Unitech 48.6 72.0 68.1 5.6 -16.5 -34.3 -68.0 261.6 22.3

    Wire & Wireless 63.3 52.8 50.0 5.6 3.8 -21.5 -49.4 45.3 6.9

    Orchid Chemicals 29.8 77.1 73.2 5.4 -21.2 -44.4 -48.7 7.0 157.5

    Tricom India 13.6 98.0 93.1 5.2 -13.8 -31.9 -35.5 6.6 11.0

    Dunlop India 73.7 91.9 88.0 4.5 -39.1 -78.4 -84.6 7.2 11.5

    Falcon Tyres 83.5 97.4 94.0 3.7 -36.2 -70.5 -79.5 3.4 29.0

    Aftek 14.1 56.0 54.2 3.3 -13.6 -21.6 -41.2 9.4 10.0

    Ansal Properties 46.5 97.7 95.3 2.5 -0.9 -33.1 -64.9 15.7 27.5

    United Spirits 28.0 89.6 87.7 2.2 -21.5 -27.3 -45.4 13.1 759.8

    Alok Inds. 30.0 60.2 59.0 2.1 2.0 -28.4 -41.3 78.8 17.8

    Era Infra Engg. 58.9 80.9 79.3 2.0 -5.5 -18.3 -34.4 18.2 148.8

    Stone India 31.5 88.1 86.5 1.9 -28.0 -27.7 -59.7 0.8 25.2

    Promoter Holding Stock return

    Source: Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

  • 8/3/2019 ICICIdirect_Pledgedshares_November2011

    3/4CICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

    November 24, 2011

    edged Shares

    Exhibit 3: Companies with decrease in proportion of pledged shares

    Co_Name

    Percentage

    (Sept 2011)

    Percentage

    pledged

    (Sept 2011)

    Percentage

    pledged

    (June 2011)

    QoQ

    decrease(%) in

    Promoter

    holding

    pledged 3 month 6 month 1 year

    No of equity

    shares

    (Sept 2011)

    CMP (|)

    (22/11/2011)

    Orbit Corpn. 47.5 54.6 77.2 -29.4 -26.2 -42.5 -73.1 11.4 26.7

    BGIL Films & Tec 26.9 49.3 67.1 -26.6 1.9 43.7 -63.6 0.6 5.3

    Balasore Alloys 46.6 48.8 63.4 -23.1 -13.0 -34.9 -55.2 6.4 14.8

    Nissan Copper 31.7 53.7 69.6 -22.9 -16.4 -34.6 -52.7 62.9 17.8

    Entegra 70.0 56.4 69.0 -18.2 -5.5 -16.4 -45.4 18.2 15.8

    Crew B.O.S.Prod. 34.3 68.4 83.3 -17.9 -21.3 -71.4 -83.9 1.4 29.0

    Parsvnath Devl. 70.2 71.2 86.5 -17.6 -1.6 6.1 -27.4 43.5 44.4

    K S Oils 9.1 70.3 83.4 -15.8 -24.3 -74.6 -86.4 42.5 7.2

    NCL Inds. 47.2 59.4 68.4 -13.1 0.0 -8.4 5.5 3.5 34.3

    Shiva Cement 35.2 55.5 63.9 -13.1 0.9 -0.2 -28.8 18.2 5.6

    Murli Industries 30.7 45.7 52.3 -12.7 -36.9 -44.7 -83.1 7.2 15.7

    Vipul Ltd 59.1 65.0 72.9 -10.8 -3.5 -25.1 -53.8 12.0 9.3

    Krebs Biochem 50.5 45.8 50.7 -9.7 -1.4 -10.0 -28.9 1.0 28.0

    India Cements 25.8 67.6 73.2 -7.7 -0.4 -17.8 -38.9 30.7 69.7

    Everonn Educat. 42.3 56.8 60.7 -6.4 -29.4 -46.0 -55.5 1.9 306.3

    Sakthi Sugars 33.9 80.6 85.7 -5.9 -17.0 -33.8 -58.4 3.7 22.4

    Bodal Chemicals 74.3 77.5 82.0 -5.5 -46.3 -41.9 -59.4 10.0 14.7

    Ankur Drugs 18.2 72.6 76.8 -5.5 -16.2 -49.3 -82.3 1.9 19.5

    Bombay Rayon 34.2 47.9 50.7 -5.4 -0.5 -3.8 27.5 13.5 276.5

    Bartronics India 27.4 63.6 66.3 -4.1 -16.3 -33.1 -58.8 3.4 40.8

    Hatsun AgroProd. 69.1 49.5 51.6 -4.1 10.4 -7.4 77.8 3.6 90.7

    Lyka Labs 21.3 91.5 95.2 -3.8 -27.1 -45.7 -64.3 2.2 11.2

    Polar Inds. 37.0 96.3 100.0 -3.7 -23.3 -27.9 -41.8 2.1 3.1

    Nandan Exim 55.9 73.1 75.2 -2.8 -22.9 -27.6 -26.5 45.5 1.9

    Pipavav Defence 45.0 97.3 99.6 -2.3 -6.4 -30.9 -31.8 66.6 58.2

    IMP Powers 49.8 64.4 65.7 -2.0 -38.4 -36.9 -35.7 0.8 53.6

    Glodyne Techno. 56.4 72.1 73.4 -1.7 -12.5 -32.1 -64.4 4.4 246.1

    Strides Arcolab 28.4 62.2 63.2 -1.5 45.7 10.6 -3.7 5.8 422.2

    Panyam Cement 51.3 98.5 100.0 -1.5 -9.6 -31.8 -53.7 1.6 43.6

    Videocon Inds. 68.3 62.9 63.7 -1.4 -4.6 -8.9 -22.4 30.3 169.6

    Viceroy Hotels 32.2 83.1 84.0 -1.2 -9.9 -23.7 -47.6 4.2 23.6

    Promoter Holding Stock return

    Source: Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

  • 8/3/2019 ICICIdirect_Pledgedshares_November2011

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    Page 4

    Pankaj Pandey Head Research [email protected]

    ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,ICICI Securities Limited,1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

    Road No. 7, MIDC

    Andheri (East)

    Mumbai 400 [email protected]

    DisclaimerThe report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way,

    transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of

    ICICI Securities Ltd (I-Sec). The author of the report does not hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in this report. I-Sec may be

    holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. This report is based on informationobtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness

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    solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,

    accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities

    discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their

    own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This report may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of

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    ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research