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Hydro Modeling Update April 7, 2020 Kevin Harris (CG) Production Cost Modeling Data Work Group (PDWG)

Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

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Page 1: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

Hydro Modeling

Update

April 7, 2020

Kevin Harris (CG)

Production Cost

Modeling Data Work

Group (PDWG)

Page 2: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Review Hydro Modeling

▪ Calculating Average Daily Operating Range

(DailyOpRange)

▪ Development of Columbia River

Assumptions

▪ Data Provided to WECC

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Outline

Core slides are from PDWGAug 14, 2019 presentation

Page 3: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

Review Hydro Modeling

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Page 4: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Options

• Hourly shape

• Proportional Load Following (PLF: K coefficient)

◦ Old method: User calc

◦ New method: User set average daily operating range by

month and PLF allocation (default 100%)

• Hydro Thermal Coordination (HTC: p coefficient)

◦ Old method: User calc

◦ New method: User set average daily operating range by

month and PLF allocation (default 100%)

• HTC allocation is 1 minus PLF allocation

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Limited Energy Modeling

Page 5: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ PLF assumes Hydro generation the relative change in Hydro generation is equal to the relative change in load multiplied by a constant

▪ Calculation of K (the slope) can be simplified to

▪ GV can Calc K and p given

• Average Daily Operating Range (DailyOpRange) and PLF Allocation

• More info on calc can be found in spreadsheet Example_Hydro_K_and_p_Calc_v08.xlsx

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Review Calc of K & p

𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 𝐺𝑒𝑛 𝐾′ =𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 𝐺𝑒𝑛 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 (𝑎𝑣𝑔(𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦max)−𝑎𝑣𝑔(𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦 𝑚𝑖𝑛)) ∗ 𝑃𝐿𝐹 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒

𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 𝐺𝑒𝑛(𝑎𝑣𝑔)

𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐾′ =𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 (𝑎𝑣𝑔(𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦max)−𝑎𝑣𝑔(𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦 min))

𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑(𝑎𝑣𝑔)

𝐾(𝑆𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒) =𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 𝐺𝑒𝑛 𝐾′

𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐾′

𝑫𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚𝑶𝒑𝑹𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆 = 𝑯𝒚𝒅𝒓𝒐 𝑮𝒆𝒏 𝑨𝒗𝒈 𝑫𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝑶𝒑 𝑹𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆 (𝑨𝒗𝒈(𝒅𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚𝐦𝐚𝐱)−𝑨𝒗𝒈(𝒅𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝒎𝒊𝒏))

Page 6: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

How to Calculate

Average Daily Operating Range

(DailyOpRange)

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Page 7: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ DailyOpRange: Average Daily Operating Range by month

• Something like ‘AvgDailyOpR’ would be a better label

▪ Included spreadsheet can be used to calculate DailyOpRange

• Example_Hydro_Calc_Hydro_OpRange_2019_0813.xlsx

• Contains 2018 data for Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph

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How to Calculate Operating Range

Page 8: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Data quality issues may exist with raw data▪ Review and correct any data issues▪ Data Issues: Abnormal spike in generation either

up or down• Max rating of Coulee 6,765 & Chief Joseph 2,456

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Cleanup Raw Data

Page 9: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Select the number of adjacent hour used to calc DailyOpRange for Hydro. • 1 hour: applicable for real-time runs

• 2 hours: 2 hour rolling average smooths out real time dispatch variability. Applicable for a day-ahead PCM

• 3 hours: 3 hour rolling average has additional smoothing of out real time dispatch variability. Applicable for a day-ahead PCM

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Adjacent Hours for PLF/HTC

Page 10: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Set GridView to use the

same adjacent hours for

PLF as used to calc the

“Avg Daily Op Range”

▪ Set in • ‘Simulation Control’ form

• ‘Generation’ tab

• Lower right

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Adjacent Hours for PLF/HTC

Page 11: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Grand Coulee for 2018• P max: 6,765 MW

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Example Operating Range #1

Page 12: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Lower Columbia (4 proj, 6,100 MW) for 2018• McNary, John Day, The Dalles & Bonneville

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Example Operating Range #2

Page 13: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Tab: DataIn_Hrly_Hydro• Import hourly hydro generation

• Assumes col 2 has the date/time for all data

• Row 5 is user set description of data

▪ Tab: Calc• Calc values used in “Results” tab

▪ Tab: Results• Charts monthly operations

◦ Use spinner Data1 and Adjacent hours

• Compare Two Shapes (Data1 & Data2)

◦ Use spinner Data2 and Month

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Review DailyOpRange Spreadsheet

Page 14: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ PLF allocation set the percent of operating range allocated to PLF

▪ HTC allocation is equal to (1 – PLF Allocation)

▪ 1) Configure the use of “Hydro Dispatch Option” set to “Region Load – Wind – Solar”

• Set appropriate Wind & Solar Coefficient Factor by region

▪ 2) If LMP profile is a better match to Hydro operations shape than 100% PLF

• Lower PLF allocation to shift some DailyOpRange to HTC

• Iterate to best match Hydro operations

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Selecting PLF Allocation

Page 15: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

Development Columbia River

Assumptions

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Page 16: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

Issue▪ Over the years operation on the Columbia River

has changed based on various constraints: environmental, fish, recreation,...

▪ The court throughout the 2011 biological opinion and required re-do of operation to comply to operating constraints

Problem▪ How to model 2009 (2008 Jun-Aug) the latest

observed Columbia River operation?

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Development of Columbia River Modeling

Assumptions

Page 17: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

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Key Columbia Rive Projects

Page 18: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Average daily operating range show

considerable operation flexibility at all

generation levels (<2011)

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Change in Operation <2011

Page 19: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Average daily operating range is less than pre

2011 and as generation increase the operating

range decreases (2011+)

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Change in Operation 2011+

Page 20: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Are individual projects proportional to load:

Nov-2017? (Not always)

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Individual Projects: Nov-2017

Page 21: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Area aggregated projects proportional or in

line with load shape? (Overall Yes)

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Page 22: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Individual projects are not always

proportional to load

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Individual Projects: Oct-2016

Page 23: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Aggregated projects are proportional or in

lone with load

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Aggregate Projects Oct-2016

Page 24: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Chart Daily Max Gen vs. Avg Daily Gen

▪ Chart: Daily Min Gen vs. Avg Daily Gen

▪ Year-over-year operation are consistent operations

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Calc Daily Operating Range #1

Page 25: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

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Calc Daily Daily Operating Range #2

Lower Columbia River

Upper Columbia River

Page 26: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Assume average daily operating range

(DailyOpRange) is equal to calc range range

based on average daily generation by month

▪ Calc OpR for 2011-20189

• Include years where target monthly generation is

within the limits of the polynomial data

▪ Model avg OpR: Where current years carry

more weighted that later years

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Calc Daily Daily Operating Range #3

Page 27: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ By aggregated system (Upper Columbia, Lower Columbia and Lower Snake River), calc average daily operating range (DailyOpRange):

• Set appropriate adjacent hours value for calc

• Calc average by month by year (Daily Max[(Gen(Mo(i))] – Daily Min[Gen(Mo(i)])

◦ Where Gen(Mo(i)) is in aMW

• Average by month OpR for system with weighting 2011-2018

• Calc a individual plants allocation based on its’ typical OpR divided by Aggregated typical OpR

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Allocate Operating Range to Plant

Page 28: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Its assumed the monthly daily generation has a normal distribution

▪ Assume Pmin equal to 10% probability of occurring (z:= 1.2816)• Avg Gen – StDev(Daily Gen) * -1.2816 (Z at 0.1)

• Include only years where target monthly generation is within +/- 3% of the polynomial data

• Average available min ratings with weighting

• Error check: Calc value > 0 and is less than min used in calc DailyOpRange

• Calc a individual plants allocation based on its’ typical OpR divided by Aggregated typical OpR

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Calc Monthly Min Gen (Pmin)

Page 29: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Assume Pmin equal to 90% probability of occurring (z:= 1.2816)

• Avg Gen – StDev(Daily Gen) * 1.2816 (Z at 0.9)

• Include only years where target monthly generation is within +/- 3% of the polynomial data

• Average available min ratings with weighting

• Error check: Calc value < P max and is greater than max used in calc DailyOpRange

• Calc a individual plants allocation based on its’ typical OpR divided by Aggregated typical OpR

• By plant add additional capacity for spin

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Calc Monthly Min Gen (Pmin)

Page 30: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

Data Provided to WECC

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Page 31: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Original hourly Hydro generation data

provided for 2008 & 2009

• From individual operator by plant

• CAISO provided hourly generation by aggregate

system (river system)

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Provided Data

Page 32: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Monthly max EIA-860

▪ Based on provided hourly Hydro generation data

• Monthly average daily operating range: Monthly Avg(Daily Max: Avg(Large(1), Large(2)) – Daily Min: Avg(Small(1),Small(2))

• Monthly generation and minimum gen

▪ Set GV “Adjacent hours for PLF” to:= 2

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Data to WECC

Columbia River projects processed as described in section 3 “Development of Columbia River Assumptions“

Page 33: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

▪ Values calc based on section: “Development

Columbia River Assumptions”

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Data for Columbia River

Page 34: Hydro Modeling Update - WECC Modeling...2020/04/07  · Values calc based on section: “Development Columbia River Assumptions” 33 Data for Columbia River Contact: Kevin Harris

Contact:

Kevin Harris

ColumbiaGrid

[email protected]

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