Columbia River Operation Overview

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

Columbia River OperationOverview


FCRPS Background• The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and

the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) operate the 31 federal dams for multiple public purposes:– Flood Control– Navigation– Fish Operations (Endangered Species Act, Clean Water

Act)– Irrigation– Recreation– Resource Integration– Reliability– Safety

• “High Priority Objectives” = Flood Control, Reliability, Safety Fish Operations,


Regional Stakeholders• In addition to Bonneville, the Corps and Reclamation, there are a

number of other stakeholders in the region– National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

• National Marine Fisheries Service mission is to protect habitats under the Endangered Species Act (ESA)

– States of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana• Federal and non-Federal hydro projects on rivers which pass through 4 states

– Canada (BC Hydro manages water; Powerex markets power)• Watersheds in Canada feed into the Columbia River• Columbia River Treaty

– Tribal interests• Columbia Basin Fish Accords – partnership between federal agencies, states

and tribes to manage and protect natural resources in the Pacific Northwest– Recreation

• Boating, camping, fishing, marinas, vacation homes, races– Irrigation– Resource Integration– Rate Payers

Planning and coordinating the operation of the FCRPS is very complex and involves many different competing interests


Uncertainty and Flexibility - Today• Uncertainty

– Streamflows: significant variation in annual average runoff as well as day-to-day streamflows

– Loads: dependent upon accurate temperature forecasts– Contracts: counter-parties behavior dependent upon power

market prices– Resource Performance: unit outages and intermittent resources– Project Operations:

• Present and future BiOp requirements reduce FCRPS capability and flexibility

• Non-Federal reservoir operations: Mid-Columbia, Hells Canyon, Canada

– Flood control, recreation, irrigation, fish mitigation, etc…– Market Depth: is there sufficient depth in the market to handle

resulting inventory?• Flexibility

– The ability of FCRPS resources to respond to changing conditions– More operational constraints = less operational flexibility


FCRPS Background• October - September average runoff 133 million

acre feet (Maf) measured at The Dalles (roughly ranges from 80 – 196 Maf)– Geographical differences between major sources of snowpack

results in timing differences between when the runoff starts (called “runoff shape”)

• Federal storage about 30 Maf, which is a fraction of the annual runoff – The Colorado and Missouri systems can store two to three times

the annual runoff


Water Year Runoff (Oct-Sep) at The Dalles1929-2011*

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

22019

29

1931

1933

1935

1937

1939

1941

1943

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Oct

ober

- Se

ptem

ber R

unof

f (m

af)

Average = 135 maf*WY 2011: Observed Oct-May, Estimated for Jul-Sep as of June

Final Forecast

• 1 Maf is approximately equal to 1000 MW-mos but the amount of energy can vary depending upon where in the basin the water comes from

Hydrological Data


Streamflow Uncertainty

The Volume Forecast Jan 5 was ~77.4 maf

The Volume Forecast July 15 was ~123 maf


Comparison of Storage Volume to Variations in Runoff

8

020406080

100120140160180200

Volu

me

(Maf

)

Annual Runoff Storage

USACanada

Dry Years (78)

Average Years (134)

Wet Years (193)


020406080

100120140160180200220240

Columbia at The Dalles

Colorado Missouri RIVER BASINS

MIL

LIO

NS

OF

AC

RE

FEET

Average Annual RunoffUsable Reservoir Storage

Average Annual Runoff and Usable Reservoir StorageMajor Western River Basins


Comparison of space availablefor system flood control storage

2

5 3.2

1

4

1.3

3

5

Indicates total flood control space

available, in million acre-feet

Total space available for flood control:

Total active storage:24.5 MAF45 MAF


Federal Columbia River Power SystemStorage and Run-of-River Dams

Run-of-River Projects•Operating range up to 5 feet•A little active storage

Storage Projects•Operating range up to 225 feet•Active storage 16.5 million acre-feet


Changes in River Flows(since 1980)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

NaturalPre-CouncilCurrent BiOp

12


Monthly Operations in Average Water(Sept. – Nov.)

September: Refill to Grand Coulee 1283 ft. for Kokanee spawning Headwater Project finalize summer augmentation drafts and transition to

minimum flows. October: Vernita Bar Fall Chinook operation (50-100 kcfs) Prepare Grand Coulee to support the Bonneville Chum operation (125-

145kcfs) Banks Lake irrigation pumping ends November: Bonneville Chum and Vernita Bar Fall Chinook protection


Monthly Operations in Average Water(Dec. – Feb.)December:

High regional power demand Grand Coulee draft limited to 1270 ft. for power and Chum (1265 ft. during a cold snap) Vernita Bar operation continues Chum spawning operation ends ~12/31 transitions to protection operation. Headwater projects on minimum flows. Libby Dam January High regional power demand Grand Coulee operation limited to 85% probability of refill to April 10 objective. Bonneville Chum & Vernita Bar operations continue Headwater projects on Minimum flows or drafting for Flood ControlFebruary: Grand Coulee operation limited to 85% probability of refill to April 10 objective. Chum and Vernita Bar operations Continue Headwater projects on Minimum flows or drafting for Flood Control


Monthly Operations in Average Water(Mar. – May)

March: Grand Coulee operation limited to 85% probability of refill to April 10 objective. Banks Lake irrigation pumping begins Vernita Bar & Chum operations continue

April: Refill / draft storage projects to April 10 elevation objective to maximize flows in the mid-

Columbia for spring Steelhead and Chinook Draft storage projects to April 30 flood control elevations (all storage projects) Manage Grand Coulee to support the Priest Rapids Steelhead flow objective of 135 kcfs Snake River and Columbia River fish spill begins Spring McNary flow objective of 220 – 260 kcfs Chum operation ends MOP operation on the Lower Snake River begins

May: Maintain McNary and Priest Rapids flow objectives Support Vernita Bar stranding operations

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O NMcNary - Spring Outflow - All Years

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69

cfs

220 kcfs

260 kcfs

McNary Spring Flow Average (April 15 –June)

70 WY Hydro-Regulation Results

53 / 70 WY Spring Flows above 220 kcfs

41 / 70 WY Spring Flows above 260 kcfs


Monthly Operations in Average Water(Jun. – Aug.)

June: Refill storage projects for summer recreation and summer flows Support McNary flow objective of 220 – 260 kcfs Support Vernita Bar stranding operation (typically ends some time in June)

July: Manage Storage projects to support McNary Flow objective of 200 kcfs

August: Draft storage projects for fish flow augmentation Fish spill ends at the end of August Banks Lake pumping reduced to draft 5’ for flow augmentation MOP operation on Lower Snake River ends

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O NMcNary - Summer Outflow - All Years

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69

cfs

200 kcfs

19 / 70 Water Years Summer Flow Objective Met

McNary Summer Flow Average (July-August)

70 WY Hydro-Regulation Results


Changes in FCRPS Hydro Generation due toFish Requirements (2008 NOAA BiOp)

(Average of 70 water conditions)

Average Federal Generation Lost Due to Operations for Fish

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep

Aver

age

MW

Average Annual Loss = ~1000 aMW


‐

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

BPA Direct Fish & Wildlife ProgramFY Expenditures (in Millions)

Capital Expense


Percentage of Spending Categories Allocated to F&W

FY 2010-2011Forecast($ in Millions)

UNSLICED 50-year Annual Average Hydro Operations Effects (Power Purchases & Foregone Revenues)

Fish and Wildlife Integrated Program

NPCC – Annual Average

US Fish & Wildlife Service – Annual AverageLower Snake Compensation Plan

Corps of Engineers O&M – Annual Average

Reclamation O&M – Annual Average

100%

50%

100%

~25%

~7%

Depreciation & Interest on COE / Reclamation / USF&WS Capital F&W Investments (based on Plant in Service)

Depreciation & Interest on BPA Direct Program Capital F&W Investments

Total Annual Average Cost of BPA Fish & Wildlife Actions

225.5 4.9

24.0 41.0 7.6

310.0 137.3 750.3 Total $

155.1 4.3

19.8 33.9 4.2

444.9 116.4 778.6

FY 2007-2009 Actuals

($ in Millions)

239.4 5.1

29.4 42.8 5.4

280.0 143.4 745.5


Model Input: Natural Streamflows at The Dalles for 2020’s & 2040’s

2020's Natural Flow at TDA: 70 year avg.

-50,000

100,000150,000200,000

250,000300,000350,000

400,000450,000500,000

550,000600,000

Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

I

Apr

II

May

June July

Aug

I

Aug

II

Sep

Qn

(cfs

)

'

Study 21: Base Study 23: MW/D Study 24: LW/W Study 25: MC

Study 26: C Study 27: MW/W Study 28: LW/D

2040's Natural Flow at TDA: 70 year avg.

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr I

Apr I

I

May

June

July

Aug

I

Aug

II

Sep

Qn

(cfs

)

'

Study 21: Base Study 29: LW/W Study 30: MC Study 31: LW/DStudy 32: C Study 33: MW/D Study 34: MW/W

Climate Change scenarios result in higher natural streamflows in the winter to spring period…

and lower streamflows in the summer, generally speaking


Model Input: Shape of Runoff for 2020’sNote that the 2040’s have similar shaping characteristics

Note that the Jan-April period is higher than current levels, the May-July period is lower (earlier runoff)

2020 Climate Change Scenarios: % of Modified Flow Volumes at TDA70 year averages

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

Study 28: LW/D Study 23: MW/D Study 25: MC Study 26: C Study 24: LW/W Study 27: MW/W

% o

f 200

0 Le

vel V

olum

Jan-Mar % of 2000L Jan-Apr % of 2000L May-Jul % of 2000LApr-Aug % of 2000L Jan-Jul % of 2000L W.Y. % of 2000L

2000L Base CaseVolumes @ TDA

PeriodVol

(MAF)Jan-Mar 19.5 Jan-Apr 32.5

May-July 69.4 Apr-Aug 90.5 Jan-July 101.9 Oct-Sep 131.7


Lower Granite Discharge Comparisons to Base Case

24

Change in Average Discharge at Lower Granite

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr I Apr II May Jun Jul Aug I Aug II Sep

Qd

(cfs

)

'

2020s minus Base 2040s minus Base


McNary DischargeComparisons to Base Case

25


Summary of Potential CC Impacts

Changes to: Winter SummerFlows Higher LowerDemand Lower HigherImpacts to:Power Better WorseFish Neutral WorseRevenue Higher Lower


BPA Partnerships and Investments• BPA is supportive of the Oregon Solutions and

other like initiatives and will work to continue improved coordination in support of these efforts.

• Commitments through our Accord agreements with the Umatilla Tribe as well as other project sponsors in the basin are critical to meeting our fish and wildlife mitigation objectives

• Significant investments have been made and planning for future like investments is underway. BPA would have concerns about initiatives that are at cross purposes with current and anticipated achievements.

Documents

Columbia River Operation Overview