HutchinsonS on the Nuer Conquest

On The Nuer ConquestAuthor(s): Sharon Hutchinson and Raymond C. KellyReviewed work(s):Source: Current Anthropology, Vol. 35, No. 5 (Dec., 1994), pp. 643-651Published by: The University of Chicago Press on behalf of Wenner-Gren Foundation for AnthropologicalResearchStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2744090 .Accessed: 17/10/2012 05:18

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Volume 35, Number S, December I994 | 643

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MARKGRAF, V. I989. Paleoclimates in Central and South America since i8,000 B.P. based on pollen and lake-level records. Quaternary Science Reviews 8:I-24.

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NORR, L. I99I. Nutritional consequences of prehistoric subsistence strategies in lower Central America. Ph.D. diss., Univer- sity of Illinois, Urbana, Ill.

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PEARSALL, D. M., AND D. R. PIPERNO. I990. Antiquity of maize cultivation in Ecuador: Summary and reevaluation of the evidence. American Antiquity 55:324-37.

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. I989. "Non-affluent foragers: Resource availability, sea- sonal shortages, and the emergence of agriculture in Panama- nian tropical forests," in Foraging and farming: The evolution of plant domestication. Edited by D. R. Harris and G. Hillman, pp. 538-54. London: Unwin Hyman.

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199 Ilb. Paleoecological perspectives on human adaptation in central Panama. 2. The Holocene. Geoarchaeology 6: 227-50.

PIPERNO, D. R., K. HUSUM-CLARY, R. G. COOKE, A. J. RA- NERE, AND D. W. WEILAND. I985. Preceramic maize from central Panama: Evidence from phytoliths and pollen. Ameri- can Anthropologist 87:87I-78.

RUE, D. j. I989. Early agriculture and early Postclassic Maya oc- cupation in western Honduras. Nature 326:285-86.

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SEARS, P. B. i982. Fossil maize pollen in Mexico. Science 2i6:932-34.

STOTHERT, K. E. I985. The preceramic Las Vegas culture of coastal Ecuador. American Antiquity 5o:6I 3-37.

VAUGHN, H. H., E. S. DEEVEY JR., AND S. E. GARRETT- JONES. I985. "Pollen stratigraphy of two cores from the Peten lake district, with an appendix on two deep-water types," in Prehistoric Maya lowland environment and subsistence economy. Edited by M. Pohl, pp. 73-89. Cambridge: Harvard Uni- versity Press.

WEILAND, D. I984. "Prehistoric settlement patterns in the Santa Maria drainage of Panama: A preliminary analysis ," in Recent developments in Isthmian archaeology. Edited by F. W. Lange, pp. 3I-54. British Archaeological Reports International Series 2 I12.

WHITEHEAD, D. R. I965. Prehistoric maize in southeastern Vir- ginia. Science 150:881-82.

WRIGHT, H. E. JR. I993. Environmental determinism in Near Eastern prehistory. CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY 34:458-69.

ZOHARY, D. I989. "Domestication of the Southwest Asian Neo- lithic crop assemblage of cereals, pulses, and flax: The evidence from the living plants," in Foraging and farming: The evolution of plant exploitation. Edited by D. R. Harris and G. C. Hillman, pp. 358-73. London: Unwin Hyman.

On The Nuer Conquest SHARON HUTCHINSON Department of Anthropology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wis. 53706-I393, U.S.A. 23 v 94

Raymond Kelly's principal objective in The Nuer Con- quest: The Structure and Development of an Expansion- ist System (i985) is to isolate that "critical set of differences" between "the Nuer" and "the Dinka" that might account for the rapid igth-century territorial expansion of the former at the expense of the latter. Challenging "the general applicability" of ecological models of adaptation "based on the core concept of a self-regulating system," Kelly attempts to show how a sociocultural system that is highly successful in "evolutionary terms" may nonetheless be perennially out of sync with its ecological base.

In the opening chapters, Kelly argues that all previous attempts to resolve the historical puzzle of the Nuer "conquest" have been based on the implicit or explicit assumption that the conquering Nuer groups were periodically driven from their western homelands by "population pressure." He rejects this assumption on the following grounds (pp. 72-73):

If the Nuer were induced to invade Dinka territory in order to achieve a reduction of excessively high population density (by distributing the population over a more extensive area), then the complete expul- sion of the Dinka would logically be their prime objective. However, we have already seen that the Nuer assimilated captives, migrants, and entire [Dinka] communities on a massive scale during the period of territorial expansion.... Moreover, each successive stage of Nuer conquest significantly reduced Nuer densities and thus would have obviated the need for further territorial appropriation prompted by population pressure. Such pressure therefore could not have provided a sustained impetus to Nuer expansion unless the Nuer population was increasing at a rapid rate.

Kelly proceeds to "show," using population estimates compiled during the early I930S and I950s, that the population density of the invaded regions remained constant between i820 and I930. Before examining this highly problematic demonstration, I should perhaps point out that his critique of "earlier explanations" is founded on an implicit identification of "population pressure" (conceived in terms of human/land ratios) with "population growth." In other words, his discussion glosses over the possibility that "population pres-

644 1 CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY

sure" might result from sudden, flood-induced declines in the inhabitable land base of the population concerned as well as from natural increase and by so doing gives short shrift to the elaborately documented environmental hypotheses of Howell (I 954), the Jonglei Investiga- tion Team (I954),1 and Johnson (I980), among others,2 proposing periodic and sustained flooding as highly significant in the igth-century advance of the Nuer eastward across the White Nile. Kelly asserts that "the central issue [of theoretical concern] here is whether Nuer population growth was a cause or consequence of territorial expansion" (p. 58). Of course, by so phrasing his central concern, he overlooks the possibility that this "population growth" was both. In support of his conclusion that "population pressure/growth" is a consequence rather than a cause of these migrations, he leans heavily on population estimates compiled by the British colonial regime during the early I930S and the I95oS as well as on an extraordinarily complex series of assumptions regarding the probable size, fertility, and age and sex distribution of the Dinka and Anuak populations that were either displaced or absorbed by the Nuer during the igth century. Although he demonstrates a re- markable appreciation of the potential ecological complexities of the region as well as of the relationship between cattle and land, a number of these assumptions are improbable. Among the most significant of these are (i) that the former Dinka and Anuak population of the invaded area was at least as large in i820 as the Nuer population of the same area in I930 (P. 275, n. ii), (2) that Nuer and Dinka mothers are survived on average by only two children each (pp. 57, 6 i), and (3) that the number of Dinka captives was roughly equivalent to the number of casualties perpetrated by the invaders (p. 6i). By invoking these assumptions, Kelly effectively assumes what he is attempting to prove-namely, that the population density of the invaded area remained constant between i 820 and I 930 and, consequently, that "earlier explanations" rooted in "population pressure" arguments are theoretically and historically invalid.

There are, moreover, several inconsistencies in Kelly's use of the alleged cattle and human population "censuses" carried out by the British colonial administration during the early I930S and I950S. On the one hand, he cites these figures in support of his assumption of zero population growth among the Nuer and the Dinka between i820 and I930. On the other hand, he makes a great deal of the difference between the I930S and I95 oS figures, arguing that they show a sudden growth spurt

i. Kelly inaccurately references the Jonglei Investigation Team reports under the name of the team's chairman, P. P. Howell. Al- though Kelly apparently traveled all the way to Khartoum to con- sult these reports, they are readily available at several university libraries in the United States, including in the Africana Collection of Northwestern University. 2. The more recent unpublished doctoral dissertation of Gabriel Giet Jal (i987) is relevant in this regard. Jal is an eastern Jikany Nuer who collected extensive oral history accounts of the Nuer migrations and complemented these with an extensive review of relevant archival records.

of 86% in the population of Nuerland between I930 and I954-55 after more than a century of stagnation (pp. 63, 94). This conclusion is essential to his later argument that the human population of the region is limited by disease rather than by food shortage, and this argument in turn is vital to the claim that Nuer population density is limited by the size of the cattle population and its stability rather than those of the human population (pp. 94-IO9). This apparent population spurt is also incorporated into his assessments of significant variations between "the Nuer" and "the Dinka" regarding relative "tribal size," "population densities," "cattle per capita" ratios, and so forth.

Kelly attributes this sudden reversal in population trends to "a reduction in mortality that is directly attributable to a government medical services program initiated in the i92os" (p. I05; cf. 63 n. 45 and io0 n. 22). This assertion is surprising; to this day, Western medical facilities have made only the slightest dent in Nuer and Dinka mortality rates. During the I930-40S there were at most two or three missionary doctors active in Nuerland at any one time. The colonial administration's inability to cope with the health problems of the Nuer and Dinka is apparent from a survey carried out by the World Health Organization in I949 that revealed that only 55 % percent of the children born alive in the Upper Nile Province reached adulthood (Upper Nile Province Monthly Diary, December I949, University of Khar- toum Library). Tragically, there is no evidence that infant mortality rates have subsequently declined. Kelly is, perhaps, somewhat predisposed to this "miracle-of- modern-medicine" hypothesis because it is the only one consistent with his claim that the Nuer and Dinka are disease- rather than food-limited populations.

A far more probable explanation for this apparent increase in population is offered by Paul Howell in his introductory remarks to the figures on which Kelly relies (Jonglei Investigation Team I954:229-300). Howell stresses repeatedly the extremely tentative nature of the human and cattle population estimates compiled by the team. He explains that, after having attempted a pilot population census of the Shilluk, the team decided that "the time involved was out of all proportion to the im- portance of the subject" (p. 229) and therefore reverted to "the old method of taking adult male taxpayer figures (i.e., the names recorded in district tax lists) as a basis and multiplying by a figure which is, in these circumstances, purely arbitrary." Howell also points out that "for administrative purposes, sometimes the figure 4.5 has been used as a multiplier, sometimes 5 and sometimes 4.5 plus io%." Furthermore, he warns (emphasis added),

No attempt has been made to analyse population trends. An increase in adult male taxpayers throughout the last 2o years might be taken to indicate an increase in population. This assumption-though it seems probable that the over-all population has increased-is, however, an unwise one. In nearly all areas the increase in taxpayers is really only an indica-


tion of administrative progress and a more efficient system of listing. In the old days, at any rate, those who escaped taxation represented a considerable proportion of the true figure.3

The figures set forth by the Sudan Development Investi- gation Team (I 9 5 5 [Howell I 9 5 5 in Kelly's bibliogra- phy]) are prefaced with equally explicit warnings- warnings which, it would seem, Kelly has chosen to ignore. Nowhere does he reveal the true basis of the population estimates he quotes, nor does he show any critical awareness regarding the inherent validity of the so-called censuses used. Furthermore, he appears to shift at will between cattle/man/land ratios based on the I930S figures and those based on the far larger I9505 figures.4 And nowhere does he discuss critically the pros and cons of his fundamental theoretical/methodological assumption: that human and cattle population estimates compiled in the I930S and I950S are accurate rep- resentations of the way things were more than I00 years earlier.

Kelly's eclipsing of history in this regard is entirely consistent with his search for "the key features of Nuer

3. For example, when the administration of central Nuerland an- nounced in I943 that only registered taxpayers would be permitted to raise cases in local Chiefs' Courts, the regional tax roll nearly doubled in a single year (Upper Nile Province Monthly Diary, March I944). Paul Howell (personal communication) later elabo- rated as follows: "The point about the population statistics in the Jonglei Investigation Report was that the whole operation had a political objective-to assess the ecological damage which part draining of the Sudd would have on Nilotic grazing resources in the dry season; to investigate and suggest 'remedial measures'; and to assess the costs. The Sudan Government had by then assumed that the project would be implemented. We were specifically told not to concern ourselves with 'development' (cf. Collins i988)-a ludicrous instruction since 'remedial measures' would have to take the form of development. The Sudan Government did not set this up as a scientific investigation-they simply wanted to know what would happen, how many people would be affected and in what way and how much compensation they could demand from the Egyptian Government. A census is a necessary preliminary to any development policy, but clearly in so huge an area, with such di- verse peoples, the difficulties of identifying people who were con- stantly on the move made it impossible in the time allotted. (The I956 Census was done on more orthodox lines, but I doubt the accuracy of even that.) We therefore had to fall back on the conven- tional government method-which was simply to apply a pretty arbitrary multiplier to listed taxpayers. These varied according to administrative efficiency, incentives, etc. I tried a few sample sur- veys, but these did not reveal consistency except between 3.5 to 6 dependents per taxpayer. They were good enough for our purposes, but in the report their dubious accuracy was repeatedly stressed. I was astonished by . . . the theories and historical interpretations [Kelly] put on very rocky statistics. Cattle statistics were from time to time more accurate because of inoculation campaigns (e.g., rinderpest).... [With regard to] increased efficiency in medical services: There may have been some improvement but not enough to make much overall improvement in health. For example, in Central Nuer District, where I was Commissioner for four years, there was one paramedic assistant and one missionary doctor on the periphery of the area. There was a hospital in the Province Headquarters and a hospital steamer which toured the area inter- mittently. This was for the whole provincial area of the Upper Nile." 4. Compare, for example, his use of the I950S figures on p. 62 (see esp. p. 279 n. 44) and later recourse to the I930S figures on p. 65.

social and economic organization that were instrumen- tal to territorial expansion [and] remained unaltered by the massive assimilation of Dinka and Anuak tribes- men" (p. 65, emphasis added). All references to and/or discussions of probable transformations in Nuer communities generated by the absorption of what Kelly himself estimates to be more than ioo,ooo Dinka in less than a century are relegated to the margins of his text (see references to Gough [I97i] and Bonte [I979] in his final footnote). When confronted with these historical complexities, his methodological rule of thumb in this book seems to be "assume no change." Moreover, he plays down the well-documented fact that much of this assimilation was achieved peacefully through infiltra- tion and intermarriage (cf. Johnson I980, I98I; Gough I 97 I; Evans-Pritchard I 940, I 95 I; Howell I 954). By por- traying the i gth-century expansion of the Nuer as a mil- itary "conquest" (cf. Bonte I987), he also obscures the fact that, in many ways, the bridewealth systems of the "conquering" Nuer and the "conquered" Dinka were highly interdependent throughout this period.

Having thus cleared the way for an alternative explanation of the Nuer expansion, Kelly shifts from "human population pressure" to "cattle population pressure" (p. II2), arguing that the "real" reason the Nuer continued expanding throughout the I gth century is that their "social requirements for cattle" far exceeded those of the invaded Dinka and Anuak communities. This novel hypothesis is based on the following propositions: (I) "Nuer bridewealth requirements are roughly twice as large as those of the Dinka" (p. II2); (2) Nuer bridewealth transactions, unlike those of the Dinka, are subject to a fixed minimum cattle payment of some I8 to 22 cOws (pp. I40-48); (3) these differences in bridewealth practices dictate herd management strategies among the Nuer that are "geared toward growth"-and these, in turn, "continually push Nuer cattle densities toward ecological limits" (pp. I53-54); and, finally, (4) the ex- ceptionally high social requirements for cattle among the Nuer "preclude slaughter as a mechanism for achieving herd reductions when the cattle population approaches maximum density" (pp. I53-54), whereas no such constraints are experienced by the Dinka. Unfortu- nately, none of these propositions appears to be justified. The first is based on a highly selective reading of the published evidence. Kelly relies heavily, for instance, on generalizations about Dinka bridewealth practices drawn by Stubbs (whose rapid survey of the Western Dinka in the late I930s yielded two single-authored arti- cles; see Stubbs I934) at the same time as he ignores unambiguous statements scattered throughout the extensive publications of Francis Mading Deng (himself a Dinka) as well as those by Howell to the effect that Dinka bridewealth rates are, in general, far higher than those of the Nuer. According to Deng (I97I:258),

The amount of bride wealth among the Ngok [Dinka] is unlimited.... Dr. Howell reports that "A man may hand over as many as forty, fifty or even a hundred head of cattle for the daughter of an impor-


tant man, but the average appears to be between twenty-five and thirty. This is on the whole higher than the Nuer average." There are cases in which daughters of chiefs have been married for two hundred cows. Although the average today might be doubtful because of the decrease in cattle, tradition- ally an average of twenty-five to thirty would seem a very conservative estimate.

Now, of course, Kelly would argue that these estimates do not take into account the "reverse cattle payment" by the bride's family to the groom's following comple- tion of the marriage among the Dinka (and some Nuer) groups. But here, too, it is important to realize that Deng's estimates of these reverse payments are far lower than those of Stubbs. Whereas Kelly readily accepts Stubbs's claim that reverse payments may range as high as 50% of original bridewealth cows, Deng states very clearly that there are no fixed rules for the calculation of these proportions, although Dinka "will readily give the corresponding reverse value of any amount of bride wealth given them as an example" (I97I:262); a bridewealth rate of 40 cows, he remarks, would require a reverse payment of 6 cows. Elsewhere Deng points out that Dinka suitors, unlike Nuer ones, may compete for the hand of a particular woman in a bidding war with cattle (Deng I972). This practice in itself sometimes drives bridewealth offers to well over ioo cows. In contrast, payments over 40 head of cattle have never been documented among the Nuer. Finally, the logic of Kelly's assumption that the reverse payment should be subtracted from rather than added to the original bridewealth payment to determine the "true" bridewealth requirements of the Dinka is challengeable. Though Kelly fails to note it, there is a firm cultural principle governing all such reverse payments: under no circumstances may the bride's family use cows received from the groom's family in its reverse payment. Furthermore, reverse payments are often made weeks, months, or even years after the original bridewealth payments. Other- wise expressed: whereas the social requirements for bridewealth cattle among most Nuer groups are confined to the groom and his kin, among the Dinka the bride's family must also muster significant numbers of cattle in order to complete the marriage. The weakness of Kelly's argument in this regard would thus seem to stem both from his failure to make an analytic distinction between cattle requirements experienced at the level of "society" and those experienced by specific families and/or indi- viduals and from his tendency to overlook the time di- mension of these exchange processes.

Kelly's second assumption is equally problematic. He musters no evidence other than a hypothetical state- ment by Evans-Pritchard to justify his faith in the exis- tence of a fixed minimum bridewealth payment among the Nuer of some I8 to 22 cattle. Evans-Pritchard himself points out that this supposed minimum payment was not universally observed: powerful prophets were sometimes offered brides without expectation of bridewealth cattle. Furthermore, Howell (I954:99, II4-22)

TABLE I

Estimated Dinka and Nuer Human and Cattle Populations in Area of the Equatorial Nile Project, .1954

Human Tribe Population Cattle Cattle: Humans

Areas Directly Affected by the Project Dinka

Bor 58,I39 82,000a I: 4I Twi 45,64I 76,ooOa I 67 Nyareweng 9,856 25,300a 2:57 Ghol 9,956 I7,200a I 73 Aliab I4,850 6o,oooa 4:04 Chich 38,250 50,000 I13I Ruweng (Paweng) 7,209 I2,200a I:69 Luaich (Luac) 4,792 5,0ooa i: o6 Dunjol 8,550 6,000a 0:70 Paloich (Paloc) 9,000 8,500a 0:94

Nuer Gaweir 36,040 49,000a I 36 Thiang I2,785 I5,000a I: I7 Lak 36,I03 47,000a I: 30 Nuong I3,234 25,000a I: 89 Doc 27,400 47,000a I 72 Jagey I3,869 37,200a .2:68 W. Jikaing 20,583 38,800a I: 69

Areas Indirectly Affected by the Project Dinka

Ruweng (Awet) 7,879 6,ooo 0:76 Ruweng (Kwil) I7,0I9 II,oooa o 65 Ruweng (Alur) 7,50I 5,500 0:73 Ngok I 5,300 7,000a 0:46 Agar 8o,ioo I50,000 ? I87 Thoi I,926 3,800a I 97 Rut 2,223 2,300a I 03 Atwot 45,900 75,000 I:63 Abialang 6,300 5,000a 0:79

Nuer Lou 67,275 152,200a e2:26 Bul 3I,599 50,000 I 58 Leik 26,059 40,000 I 53 E. Jikaing 86,500 86,500 I: 00

SOURCE: Jonglei Investigation Team (1954:tables i28 and i29). a Based on actual counts.

notes that mothers, divorcees, and former concubines were often married for considerably less than the figures Kelly proposes. Because of the widespread and persistent flooding experienced by the western Nuer during the Ig60s, bridewealth rates in that region temporarily plummeted to fewer than io head in many cases, and similar dips have occurred during times of civil war (I955-72, i983-present). Finally, Kelly's arguments in this regard totally ignore the potential impact on bridewealth rates of the thousands upon thousands of Dinka women and girls absorbed during the eastward Nuer migrations. Since many of these women were simply taken on as wives with little or no bridewealth obligation, it would seem reasonable to assume that this influx con- tributed to a parallel reduction in the "social require-


ments for cattle" experienced by the expanding Nuer communities.

It should be clear by now that, in my opinion, Kelly's central arguments are based on some rather questionable assumptions, and the "statistical" evidence he invokes to support these assumptions is often used highly selec- tively. For example, he never presents the full set of "cattle per capita" and "cattle density" figures with which he is working. Rather, he appears to choose from among the figures in the I 954 and I95 5 reports as suits his immediate purposes. A glance at the original Jonglei Investigation Team (I954) figures (table i) should make it clear that, despite his repeated assertion to the con- trary, differences in cattle per capita were far greater among different Dinka groups than they were between "the Dinka" and "the Nuer."5 In sum, I find Kelly's analysis of the Nuer "conquest" provocative but uncon- vincing.

Reply

RAYMOND C. KELLY

Department of Anthropology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich. 48IO9, U.S.A. 25 VII 94

The primary analytic objective of my book The Nuer Conquest is to identify (i) the proximate and underlying factors that provided a sustained impetus to Nuer territorial expansion, (2) the means by which this was ac- complished, including the source of the Nuer advantage over the Dinka, (3) the process of divergence and structural change that eventuated in the development of this Nuer advantage, and (4) the factors that account for Nuer-rather than Dinka-development of both the impetus to territorial acquisition and the capacity to achieve this result. The data and analysis presented in the course of this inquiry serve as a basis for consideration of a number of theoretical issues pertaining to adaptation, evolution, the properties of expansionist systems, and the role of material causes and interactions in social transformations that transpire over time (i.e., in "history"). It is important to note at the outset that Hutchinson's reflections address only the portion of my book concerned with the first analytic question.

Hutchinson begins by invoking what she considers a potential alternative proximate cause of Nuer territorial expansion, namely, "population pressure" as a result of flood-induced constriction of habitable land area. How- ever, this hypothesis is seriously flawed. Johnson (i986, I988, I989) is its principal exponent, and his I989 article provides a concise summary of his views (p. 484):

The physical characteristics of this region have remained essentially the same for centuries, and as

5. Unfortunately, space limitations preclude my provision of the "Vital Statistics" section of the SDIT report (I955:75-82), on which Kelly also draws. However, these figures may be obtained either from me or from various university libraries in the U.S.A. that hold this volume.

long as pastoralists have occupied it there has been an enduring pattern of vulnerability to a regular succession of floods. The succession of natural catastrophes within the region is a constant fact of life. Times of major natural disaster are part of the collec- tive living memory of the Nilotic peoples; I collected information on Pilual in i98i-2 from survi- vors of that flood who could compare it with their direct experience of Pawer and with their parents' accounts of the great floods of I878 and the I89os. Rarely, however, is a catastrophe universal, as we have seen in both the high floods of I9I6-I8 and I96I-4. There are usually reserve areas of cattle and crops on which others draw, even if the margin of surplus is narrow, and even if it is a surplus only in relative terms. The peoples of the Zaraf valley and the Duk ridge are periodically forced to rely on peoples of the Sobat hinterland for grain and cattle. In turn the peoples of the Sobat hinterland are periodically forced to rely on some of the more secure agricultural areas of the Sobat valley and the White Nile.

There are several readily apparent difficulties with this perspective from the standpoint of explanation (as opposed to historical description). If periodic floods have been a constant over centuries, then how can they account for the directional, chronologically specific process of igth-century Nuer eastward expansion? Why would periodic flood cause the Nuer to expand at Dinka expense rather than the reverse, and why at this time rather than earlier or later? Why would periodic flooding necessitate a fourfold increase in the Nuer territorial domain during the relatively brief period from i820 to i88o? The alleged cause is mismatched with the scale of the phenomenon to be explained.

Johnson extensively documents the point that the "peoples" of a flooded locale temporarily moved to other areas that are unaffected and that "when the waters sub- sided old settlements were reoccupied" (i986:I38). He adds, in the second half of this sentence, that, in the Nuer case, "the new eastern settlements were not aban- doned." However, this retention of occupied territory is not in any way explained by flood conditions, and retention is the factor that is manifested in territorial appropriation. Thus periodic flood does not explain Nuer territorial expansion, even though it may be possible to adduce oral traditions that contain some instances in which an event of periodic flood is followed by a reloca- tion. Documentation of a sequence of events in which B follows A does not render A the cause of B (just as performing a ritual before dawn does not cause the sun to rise). I would certainly agree that the capacity of a particular area to support human and cattle populations varies with hydrological conditions and that fluctuations in such conditions cause population movements. However, it is a logical fallacy to conflate localized, temporary and reversible fluctuations in hydrological conditions with the causes of a fourfold Nuer territorial appropriation. These fluctuations cause temporary and


reversible population movements that are quite distinct from appropriation. Moveover, they do not explain why the Nuer moved into Dinka territory rather than the reverse.

It is also important to note that major floods in the Upper Nile Basin reduce "population pressure" insofar as they reduce the cattle population. Under flood conditions the limited areas of high ground on which cattle are grazed during the wet season are further constricted by higher than normal water levels. Under extreme conditions "the cattle starved when their pastures were covered by water" (Johnson I989:474). Confronted with these circumstances, the Nuer typically culled weaker animals from the herd so that an inevitable herd reduction would be a selective and managed event (see Kelly I985:IOO-I05 for an extended discussion of Nuer re- sponses to both wet- and dry-season grazing shortages). However, flood conditions also increase cattle mortality due to disease. Thus Johnson (i989:472) notes that "Contagious Bovine Pleuro-pneumonia (CBPP) increased partly because of wetter conditions caused by widespread flooding" and "trypanosomiasis also spread as game, fleeing the floods, came into closer contact with cattle." Both cattle deaths due to disease and increased slaughter as a response to grazing shortages add to the flood supply during periods of flood conditions. While flooding characteristically reduces crop yields, the cattle population constitutes a dependable reserve that can be drawn upon under these conditions of re- stricted grain supplies. The net effect of periodic flooding is thus a periodic reduction in the cattle population. This reduces "population pressure" by reducing the ratio of cattle to grazing land. Although displaced resi- dents of a flood-affected locale return when the waters subside, it may take a number of years for the cattle population to increase to former levels. In the interim, cattle density is reduced. Periodic flooding thus cannot logically provide an underlying cause of the sustained impetus to Nuer territorial appropriation (just as it cannot provide a proximate cause). The decline in "inhabitable land base" that Hutchinson invokes is matched by a decline in the cattle populations, with the result that there is no "population pressure" in these terms. The human population consumes the cattle that die or are slaughtered in order to tide it over periods of grain shortage, and therefore there is also no "population pressure" in human terms.

Hutchinson proposes that the Nuer population is food-limited rather than disease-limited as I argued in my book. If the Nuer population were food-limited, flooding would engender famine conditions leading to starvation and a reduction in the human population, ob- viating the "population pressure" that Hutchinson invokes as a cause of Nuer expansion. This is to say that Hutchinson's argument is logically inconsistent. The Nuer population must be disease-limited rather than food-limited if flood is presumed to produce "population pressure" rather than population decline (in that land area is supposed to be reduced while the human population is not). Johnson shows that "the Nilotic peoples

survive and recover from the natural catastrophes which are endemic to the region" (i989:474) by reliance on kin, by trading cattle for grain, and, during the igth century, by raiding for cattle and grain. He thus extensively documents my point that the Nuer population was not food-limited during the historical periods under consideration, and his I989 article can be read as an exempli- fication of the argument presented in my book with regard to this issue (see Kelly I985:96-99).

The linchpin of Hutchinson's critique is the demography of the Nuer population during the period from i820 to I955. More specifically, she is highly critical of my argument that the Nuer human population was disease- limited rather than food-limited during the i820 to I890 period of Nuer territorial expansion and thus grew prin- cipally through assimilation of Dinka captives, immi- grants, and enclaves. While I attribute the government- reported 86% increase in the Nuer population between the early I930S and I955 to reduced mortality during this period, she argues that there was no population increase but only improved enumeration. Although she contests my demographic model, which entails an absence of significant intrinsic growth (due to a greater number of births than deaths) prior to i920, she em- braces the entirely compatible notion that the Nuer population did not increase between the early I930S and I955 but was simply more completely enumerated. Here again, the components of her argument are logically inconsistent. An absence of population growth after large- scale Nuer assimilation of the Dinka ceased, during the colonial period, would perfectly fit my argument that the Nuer population grew through assimilation. The high infant mortality due to disease that Hutchinson reports is equally consistent with that model and with the disease-limited status of the Nuer population. If she is proposing that the Nuer did show intrinsic growth (excluding assimilation) during the period from i820 to I930 but subsequently ceased to grow from I930 to I955, then she will need to account for this dramatic shift in fundamental demographic characteristics (in terms of a reduced birth rate or increased death rate or both).

The essential point here is that it is not sufficient to make a series of unrelated assertions concerning the demography of the Nuer at various points in time without attending to the question of whether these assertions are logically compatible. What is required to eluci- date Nuer territorial expansion is the construction of a model specifying the operation of demographic processes over time that systematically interrelates all the available data. The construction of such a model neces- sitates the explicit formulation of the values of the relevant variables so that the plausibility of each of these can be scrutinized and evaluated. Hutchinson's criticism of such model construction as "an extraordinarily complex series of assumptions regarding the probable size, fertility, and age and sex distribution of ... populations" is misplaced. It is precisely such an exercise that renders the basis of my argument transparent to the reader and makes it possible to evaluate the available

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data pertaining to each component. Moreover, such a model brings out the systematicity of interrelated demographic variables and thus precludes the logical inconsistencies of Hutchinson's shotgun approach to critical evaluation as well as the limitations of introducing par- tial data. Consider, for example, Hutchinson's introduc- tion of the figure of 5 5 % infant mortality. With a high birth rate, the Nuer population would nevertheless be increasing, whereas an accompanying low birth rate would entail population decline. By itself, the infant mortality figure tells us nothing about the plausibility of a reported 86% population increase.

Hutchinson misreads the arguments presented in my book on a number of points. She begins by asserting that I seek to show "that the population of the invaded regions remained constant between i820 and I930." In contrast (Kelly I985:I07),

The population density of the Nuer as a whole fell dramatically from the early i800's to I890 as the Nuer proceeded to quadruple their tribal domain to thirty-five thousand square miles through territorial appropriation. Although large numbers of Dinka (and Anuak) were added to the population through cap- ture, migration, and the incorporation of Dinka lin- eages, the rate of population increase lagged far be- hind the rate of territorial gains.

Hutchinson then grounds her criticism in her misread- ing by arguing that "Kelly effectively assumes what he is attempting to prove-namely, that the population density of the invaded area remained constant between i820 and I930." But I have not tried to prove this at all. I explicitly state that the demographic model constructed entails estimated population densities of I 4 to i5 per- sons per square mile in i8oo, declining to 5.7 in I890 and then increasing to 7.9 in I 930 and I4.7 in I 95 5 (pp. I07-8). Hutchinson's characterization of my "assumptions" is also inaccurate. Inasmuch as her argument that I assume what I attempt to prove is founded on a misun- derstanding of the latter, a discussion of the former would only serve to belabor a point already sufficiently established. However, it should be emphasized that Hutchinson's assertion that "Kelly's methodological rule of thumb in this book seems to be 'assume no change"' is based on misreadings such as the one illus- trated above. Chapter 5 addresses organizational differ- entiation of the Nuer and Dinka, divergence in economic organization, and structural changes in the Nuer lineage system. The transformation of the Nuer is the main subject of this chapter.

Again, Hutchinson asserts that "nowhere does [Kelly] reveal the true basis of the population estimates he quotes," yet in the first sentence of the same paragraph she refers to population figures of the Jonglei Investiga- tion Team "on which Kelly relies." Likewise, in n. 4, referenced in this same paragraph, she encourages the reader to compare my use of I930S and I950S figures at different points and indicates some of the footnotes in my book in which these sources are discussed. Thus she herself shows that the sources of the figures I employ

are consistently referenced. I should add that inasmuch as I am concerned with accounting for all the available data, I use all the available data (i.e., both I930S and I950S figures). The endnotes contain extensive discussion of sources. For example, in endnote 2 (p. 280) I discuss the comparability of data sets and address issues of reliability, including the potential effects of underenumeration.

Hutchinson also alleges that I "nowhere" discuss the assumption that "human and cattle population estimates compiled in the I930S and I950S are accurate rep- resentations of the way things were more than ioo years earlier." However, I do not make this assumption. As noted earlier, the demographic model I develop entails a decline and subsequent increase in human population densities. Moreover, I posit a fundamental demographic transition from a period of population growth primarily attributable to assimilation of the Dinka (and Anuak) prior to ca. i920 to a period of population growth attributable to an excess of births over deaths from i920 to I955. In other words, I explicitly develop the argument that demographic processes applicable to the I930S and I95OS were not representative of the earlier period of Nuer expansion, when a different configuration of demographic processes prevailed.

This posited demographic transition is directly relevant to the issue of accounting for the census data that record an 86% increase in the Nuer population, "from 247,000 in the circa I930 census to 460,ooo in the I95 5-56 census" (p. 94). I attribute this increase primarily to a general inoculation program initiated in i92i (see p. 284). Such inoculation programs require only limited personnel, who travel from place to place, but they have a very significant impact on mortality rates when such rates are high and infectious diseases are responsi- ble for a substantial component of this elevated mortality. These conditions pertain directly to the southern Sudan. In this and other respects the recorded 86% population increase over 25 years is entirely consistent with what one would expect from the literature on the demography of Africa. Hill (I975:II2) succinctly summa- rizes the general demographic features of the continent as follows: "Fertility and mortality are both higher for Africa than for any other continent; fertility is constant or rising slightly, mortality is falling fairly rapidly. The rate of natural increase of the population is ... estimated by the United Nations to be 2.6 percent per year for the period I965 to I970." Hill also notes that "the decline in mortality has probably been going on for some considerable time, since early in the present century, although the pace of the decline has almost certainly been acceler- ating over recent years" (p. iii). An 86% population increase in 25 years requires only a 2.5% increase per year. The rate of increase necessary to account for the Nuer population growth indicated in administrative census data is thus entirely typical of the overall rate for Africa during this period. Moreover, it is very considerably less than the growth rate reported in the Sudan national government census of I955-56 (based on the difference between mortality and fertility) and some-

6 5 I CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY

what less than the rate of 2.7% that Demeny (i968:508) arrives at for the "Central Southerners" (i.e., the Nilotic tribes) on the basis of his extremely sophisticated reanal- ysis of the Sudan government census. Moveover, De- meny argues for "the strong probability of rather high rates of population growth for several decades preceding the census" (p. 472) due to gradual decline in mortality. This deduction, based on evidence internal to the census survey (e.g., completed family size), independently confirms the growth indicated by the administrative census data spanning the period I930 to I955-56. In other words, the analysis of specialists in the field of African demography and the demography of the Sudan confirm the key points in my model of Nuer demography over time, including a gradual transition to intrinsic increase due to declining mortality beginning several decades before the I95 5-56 census.

It is important to keep in mind that the I955-56 national government census was not based on the administrative census that Howell refers to (which relied on a multiple of listed taxpayers). The national census was independently compiled from a survey questionnaire ad- ministered in accordance with stratified sampling tech- niques. Thus underenumeration due to tax avoidance is not a potential source of error in the national census. Moreover, the national census lists a provincial population only 2.5 % greater than the administrative census of about a year earlier reported by the Southern Develop- ment Investigation Team. The national census thus independently confirms the accuracy of the administrative census despite the problems of tax avoidance. This is probably because of the use of a multiplier of five times recorded taxpayers in the administrative census that compensates for underenumeration by a high estimate of five dependents per taxpayer (rather than something on the order of three plas or minus a fraction, both fa- thers and their adult sons being potential taxpayers). Howell wrote the cautionary passage that Hutchinson quotes in I954 (or earlier), before the national census was completed and the results published. His remarks are thus recontextualized by the subsequent indepen- dent evidence of the national census.

Hutchinson's discussion of my comparative analysis of Nuer and Dinka bridewealth contains additional er- rors. I directly consider reports of extremely large bridewealth payments among the Dinka: "Titherington (I927) mentions one hundred cattle, Deng (I97 :E262) reports the same figure (with a reciprocal payment of forty) and Howell (i95i:280) states 'a man may hand over as many as forty, fifty, or even a hundred head of cattle for the daughter of an important man"' (p. I39). I also explain in the following paragraph why average Dinka bridewealth payments tend toward the low end of a range that is broader than that applicable to the Nuer. It is, of course, average payments that dictate cattle requirements for a community. I explain (pp. I42-43) that the size of the reciprocal payment varies with the size of the bridewealth payment and cite the specific values. I specifically discuss Deng's accounts. However, I also note (pp. 287-88) that it is difficult to determine

whether his data represent a composite picture applicable to the Dinka as a whole or a variant of the Ngok ideal. Hutchinson herself describes Deng's statements on bridewealth as "scattered." I rely on Howell's data on Ngok bridewealth (which Deng himself cites) because it is strictly comparable to Howell's data on the bridewealth payments of eight Nuer tribes and thus ideal for comparative analysis (see p. I36).

Hutchinson's assertion that I do not attend to cattle requirements at the family and/or individual level is simply incorrect. For example, I specifically document the point that, among the Malwal Dinka, the bride's immediate family receives 6 of 40 bridewealth cattle but contributes 5 to the reciprocal payment of 2o for a net addition of i animal to the family herd (p. I35). I use Stubbs's data on the Malwal Dinka precisely because they contain this level of detail on cattle requirements at the level of the bride's immediate family, matrikin, and patrikin. I also explain that every family retains a certain number of cattle for subsistence purposes that are not deployed in social payments. However, the cattle that provide this subsistence minimum are substitut- able. Thus the Malwal Dinka bride's family exemplified here could utilize the 6 bridewealth cattle received as the basis of the family herd while contributing 5 of its original family herd to the reciprocal payment. The bride's family thus does not need to accumulate cattle beyond subsistence requirements in order to complete the reciprocal payment with cattle different from those received. It could possess (for example) 6 cattle before receiving its bridewealth share, i2 immediately after- wards, and 7 after making the reciprocal payment some time later. The Dinka payment therefore does not require the bride's family to accumulate cattle in excess of subsistence requirements.

Evans-Pritchard (I940:222) reports that a female Dinka captive "becomes a daughter to her captor" and that she is married to someone else for bridewealth. When a woman of an incorporated Dinka lineage or un- incorporated Dinka enclave is married, bridewealth is given to her Dinka family. (Either way, the children of the Dinka woman will have recognized matrikin.) This controverts Hutchinson's undocumented claim that "thousands upon thousands" of Dinka women were taken as wives without transfer of bridewealth. Hutch- inson likewise provides no basis for questioning Evans- Pritchard's concept of a Nuer minimum bridewealth payment required to validate a socially recognized union (although transfer of a portion of this may be deferred until a later date during periods of hardship; see Kelly I985:2o0-22 and Evans-Pritchard I95 I:80).

The data contained in tables 128 and I129 of the Jonglei Investigation Team report that Hutchinson reproduces provide substantial confirmation of the analysis devel- oped in my book. I argue that in any given environmental context the Nuer will push cattle densities toward ecological limits because of the effect on herd structure of bridewealth-related social requirements for cattle and the effect of herd structure on cattle per capita holdings. Thus "a given unit of grazing land capable of supporting

Volume 35, Number S, December 1994 1 65I

a fixed number of cattle will support fewer Nuer than Dinka" (p. I 5 3). I do not maintain that all tribal domains are equivalent in their capacity to support cattle. Sub- stantial differences among different Dinka groups are particularly expectable because the Dinka occupy quite dissimilar environmental zones, differing in their pas- ture characteristics. The relevant comparisons are thus between the Nuer and Dinka groups inhabiting more ecologically comparable domains (see p. 75). Thus a comparison of the Lou and Gaweir Nuer with the adja- cent Ghol, Nyaraweng, Twi, and Bor Dinka yields a cattle per capita ratio of I.95 for the Nuer and i.62 for the Dinka, as expected. Moreover, the median for all listed Dinka groups is I .3 I cattle per capita as opposed to I.58 for all listed Nuer groups. This is precisely what one would expect if the Nuer displayed a tendency to push cattle densities toward environmental capacity in any area they occupied. In short, these data support the concept of system-characteristic differences in the animal husbandry practices of the Nuer and Dinka. This lends support to the employment of this concept in accounting for Nuer territorial expansion during an earlier period.

Hutchinson's complaint that I "eclipse history" raises issues pertaining to anthropological objectives in the study of social transformation over time. The first chapter of my book is entitled "The History of Nuer Expan- sion." It contains an account of the character of Nuer territorial acquisition and a chronicle of the dates and phases of Nuer expansion charted in terms of the movements of tribal populations. The principal objective of this chapter is to delineate the phenomena to be explained. In other words, history as a sequence of events is a compilation of data that serves as the point of depar- ture for an analysis of the process of social transformation. It is the internal dynamics of this causal process itself that is of special interest. In this sense both a par- ticularistic local history and a regional ethnography are subjugated to larger theoretical purposes. I would argue that anthropology should not be satisfied merely to em- ulate historians but should aim to "eclipse history" by theorizing the underlying processes of social transformation. Nuer territorial expansion is of general interest precisely because it provides scope for such a development of anthropological theory. Moreover, the capacity to employ a controlled comparison of Nuer and Dinka over time provides a superior methodological framework for theory building (see Kelly I985:4-6).

References Cited BONTE, PIERRE. I979. "Pastoral production, territorial organiza-

tion, and kinship in segmentary lineage societies," in Social and ecological systems. Edited by P. C. Burnham and R. F. Ellen, pp. 203-34. New York: Barnes and Noble.

. I987. Review of: The Nuer conquest by Raymond C. Kelly (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, i985). Africa 57: T-23.

COLLINS, R. O. I988. The Jonglei Canal. Oxford: Oxford Univer- sity Press.

DEMENY, PAUL. I968. "The demography of the Sudan: An anal-

ysis of the I 955 /5 6 census, " in The demography of Tropical Af- rica. Edited by W. Brass et al. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

DENG, FRANCIS MADING. I97I. Tradition and modernization: A challenge for law among the Dinka of Sudan. New Haven: Yale University Press.

. I972. The Dinka of Sudan. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.

EVANS-PRITCHARD, E. E. I940. The Nuer. Oxford: Oxford Uni- versity Press.

I 195 I. Kinship and marriage among the Nuer. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

GOUGH, KATHLEEN. I97I. "Nuer kinship: A re-examination," in The translation of culture. Edited by T. 0. Beidelman, pp. 79-I2i. London: Tavistock.

HILL, K. H. I975. "Population trends in Africa," in The population factor in African studies. Edited by R. P. Moss and R. J. A. R. Rathbone. London: University of London Press.

HOWELL, P. P. I95 I. Notes on the Ngork Dinka. Sudan Notes and Records 32: 239-93.

. I954. A manual of Nuer law. London: Oxford University Press.

JAL, GABRIEL GIET. I987. The history of the Jikany Nuer before i920. Ph.D. diss., School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.

JOHNSON, DOUGLAS. I980. History and prophecy among the Nuer of southern Sudan. Ph.D. diss., University of California, Los Angeles, Calif.

. I98I. The fighting Nuer: Primary sources and the origin of a stereotype. Africa 5 I: 5 08- 27.

. I986. The historical approach to the study of societies and their environment in the eastern Upper Nile plains. Ca- hiers d'Etudes Africaines 26: I 3 I-44.

. I988. "Environment and history in the Jonglei area," in The Jonglei Canal: Impact and opportunity. Edited by P. P. Howell, M. Lock, and S. Cobb. Cambridge: Cambridge Univer- sity Press.

. I989. Political ecology in the Upper Nile: The twentieth- century expansion of the pastoral "common economy." Journal of African History 30:463-86.

JONGLEI INVESTIGATION TEAM. I954. The Equatorial Nile Project and its effects in the Anglo-Egyptian Sudan. 4 vols. London: Sudan Government Printer.

KELLY, RAYMOND. I985. The Nuer conquest: The structure and development of an expansionist system. Ann Arbor: Uni- versity of Michigan Press.

SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT INVESTIGATION TEAM. I955. Natural resources and development potential in the southern provinces of Sudan: A preliminary report. London: Sudan Gov- ernment Printer.

STUBBS, J. N. I934. Beliefs and customs of Malwal Dinka. Su- dan Notes and Records I7:243-54.

TITHERINGTON, G. W. I927. The Raik Dinka of Bahr el Ghazal Province. Sudan Notes and Records IO:I59-209.

On Theorizing Human Sexuality

ABHIJIT GUHA AND SATINATH BHUNIA

Department of Anthropology, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, West Bengal, India 721102. I VII 94

Okami and Pendleton's report (CA 35:85-9I) on the multidisciplinary symposium "Theorizing Sexuality: Evolution, Culture, and Development" includes obser- vations of Paul Abramson and Gilbert Herdt on human sexuality research which deserve closer attention from anthropologists. According to Okami and Pendleton,

Article Contentsp. 643p. 644p. 645p. 646p. 647p. 648p. 649p. 650p. 651

Issue Table of ContentsCurrent Anthropology, Vol. 35, No. 5 (Dec., 1994), pp. 483-691Volume Information [pp. ]Front Matter [pp. ]The Structure and Dynamics of Dry-Farming States in Upper Mesopotamia [and Comments and Reply] [pp. 483-520]Monumentality and the Rise of Religious Authority in Precontact Hawai'i [and Comments and Reply] [pp. 521-547]Calendar [pp. 548]The Comparative Method in Anthropology [and Comments and Reply] [pp. 549-564]Disease and the Development of Inuit Culture [and Comments and Reply] [pp. 565-594]Inuit Sex-Ratio Variation: Population Control, Ethnographic Error, or Parental Manipulation? [and Comments and Reply] [pp. 595-624]Documentation [pp. 624]Discussion and CriticismOn Polygyny and Sex Ratio at Birth: An Evaluation of Whiting's Study [pp. 625-627]On Symbols and the Palaeolithic [pp. 627-629]The Osteological Paradox Reconsidered [pp. 629-637]On the Emergence of Agriculture in the New World [pp. 637-643]On The Nuer Conquest [pp. 643-651]On Theorizing Human Sexuality [pp. 651-652]

ReportsAn Interview with John W. Bennett [pp. 653-664]The End of the Paleolithic and the Mesolithic in Portugal [pp. 664-674]A Geological Explanation for the Berekhat Ram Figurine [pp. 674-675]Cahuachi: New Evidence for an Early Nasca Ceremonial Role [pp. 675-679]The Origins of Weapon Systems [pp. 679-681]

BooksFood, Self, Society, and Nation in Japan [pp. 683-684]Historicizing Malinowski: Two Views [pp. 684-686]Books Received [pp. 686-687]

Back Matter [pp. ]

Documents

HutchinsonS on the Nuer Conquest