Hur kan elsystemet klara variationer från mycket vindkraft?

Lisa Göransson

Chalmers

Every type of capacity can be considered as potentially regulating capacity.

• 20 % wind power is managed by the units in place.

• Include cycling costs in running costs

• Reduced hours of operation for base load units 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

142

083

912

5816

7720

9625

1529

3433

5337

7241

9146

1050

2954

4858

6762

8667

0571

2475

4379

6283

81

Shar

e of

max

out

put d

urin

g ye

ar (%

)

2000

2005

2012

50% of max output during >50% of the year

50% of max output during <20% of the year

Utilization of central power plants

~25%

337

343

349

355

361

367

373

379

385

391

397

403

409

415

421

427

433

439

445

451

457

463

469

475

481

487

493

499

0

5

10

15

20

25

Northern Poland winter 2012

pv

offwind

onwind

gas

bio

coal

lignite

waste

demand

Time [3h]

GW

337

343

349

355

361

367

373

379

385

391

397

403

409

415

421

427

433

439

445

451

457

463

469

475

481

487

493

499

0

5

10

15

20

25

Northern Poland winter 2020

pv

offwind

onwind

gas

bio

coal

lignite

waste

demand

Time [3h]

[G

W]

vRES in Europe by 2020

• Some regions will have much more than 20 % vRES by 2020.– National allocation plans– Wind conditions– Grid Bottlenecks

• vRES deliver 17% of European electricity demand.

• Variations can be managed by the system in place through transmission investments and trade.

Nordic system 2020

• Low wind share in Nordic countries. High wind share in neighboring regions.

• Nordic export is reduced during windy hours.

• Swedish annual export decrease.

• Nuclear full load hours are reduced.

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nordic export 2012

Nordic Export 2020

Wind generation in neighboring regions

One week in autumn [3h]

[GW

h/3

h]

vRES beyond 2020• Still need for

capacity but few hours of operation

• High costs for those few hours give large price fluctuations

• Tough climate targets give less options and higher costs

• Motivate DSM, storage, co-generation etc.