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Human Age 2.0FUTURE FORCES AT WORK


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NEW WAYS OF GETTING WORK DONE ARE EMERGINGIn 2011, ManpowerGroup identied the “Human

Age,”1 a new era in which talent overtakes capitalas a key economic differentiator. Driven by four keyglobal forces — greater individual choice, the riseof customer sophistication, shifting demographicsand the ongoing technological revolution — theHuman Age continues to shape the workplaceand its impact is increasingly apparent.

The Great Recession and theprotracted, uneven recoveryreveal how longer-termstructural trends have alteredglobal markets. In this newnormal, economies continue togrind in low gear, especially the three mainengines of global growth — Europe, UnitedStates and the BRIC nations. The Euro area isbeset by unemployment, threat of deation, arefugee crisis, the Volkswagen implosion and

radical politicians who agree on little that willdrive growth. The U.S. economy faces weakerexpansion with interest rates rising. The dollarcontinues to strengthen, while China’s growth islikely to drop another notch, reducing demand inglobal markets.

Many expected that as the recession subsidedthe world would return to business as usual. Thathasn’t happened. The recovery is unlike any otherand so is the business environment. Both areless stable and harder to predict, yielding newchallenges and opportunities. Businesses will needto plan for uncertainty and be built for change.What is certain is the uncertainty that liesahead and that we will see the effects of thisacceleration of structural and cyclical forces.

Is the Labor Market Broken?Global labor markets are less elastic today thanthey once were; they recover more slowly andproduce growing inequality. Systems for aligning

labor supply and demand no longer function asbefore. The result is widespread skills shortage 2 despite high unemployment. The labor market ishampered by lack of talent liquidity and limitedinvestment, while traditional work models competewith new, more exible alternatives. Employers,challenged by globalization, low productivity, wagepressure and talent shortages are not investing in

people as they once did. Theyhave gone from a traditional roleof being builders of talent toconsumers of work. They havenot yet gured out where toinvest to acquire and developthe more specialized skills

they need for this new business environment.ManpowerGroup’s 2015 ‘Talent Shortage Survey’found that 38% of employers globally are havinggreater difculty nding people with the right skillsthan last year — the highest level in seven years. 2

Of course these challenges are felt by individualstoo, with unemployment and underemployment,stagnating wages and access to jobs that offer littlein the way of development. They struggle to see thepath to success within large organizations and canno longer trust the traditional career ladder.Governments increasingly ask what is businessdoing to be part of the solution — with education,training and long-term investment — and someare regulating to address this.

Survival of the Talented —Has Disruption Turned to Darwinism?

The polarization of the labor market is widerthan ever. Most developed economies haveseen stagnant wages for more than a decade,but averages can be misleading. The Haves ,those with in-demand IT skills — .NET, SAP,

Vendavo and Ruby on Rails — or mechanical,electrical and civil engineering skills — have

BUSINESS AS USUALIS A THING OF THE PAST

Employers have gone frombeing builders of talent toconsumers of work.

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continued to see wages increase. The Have Nots ,with low or outdated skills, see wages stand stillor decline. So what about the Rest of Us ? Mostof the workforce is not highly skilled, high earningIT elite, but the vast majority, the Rest of Us, areessential consumers and critical for productivityand growth. Low wage growth depresses

consumer spending and overall economic growth.The time is ripe for disruption and newthinking in the labor market.

The New World of Work —Tear Up the Old Rule Book

As labor market tension increases and the talentmismatch continues, economic necessity or politicalinuence will eventually force a realignment of thelabor market. Old protectionist markets will need tobe recongured to compete and reect new ways of

getting work done. Policies focused on jobprotection are discouraging new hiring and

increasing the dichotomy between old, young, temp,perm, Haves and Have Nots. The labor markets thatrestructured ahead of the recession are faring betterthan those still hampered by regulation and rigidity.Reformed labor markets like Germany, Netherlands,U.K. and more recently Spain and Poland are betterpositioned for growth. More will follow suit. 3

Employers will also need to reevaluate theirworkforce management and seek alternativeworkforce models to drive greater productivityat competitive costs. This new age of work willrequire a new playbook, and employers will needthe agility and talent to succeed in the newrecongured labor market. Individuals will need todevelop and demonstrate learnability to skill upto replace the job for life and to stay relevant.Educators and policymakers will also need to keeppace with the changing demands of moderneconomies and a more globalized labor force.

This new age of work will require a new playbookand employers will need the agility and talent to succeed

in the recongured labor market.

4 | Human Age 2.0: Future Forces at Work


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HUMAN AGE FORCESIMPACTING THE

WORLD OF WORK Shifting Demographics,Dynamic WorkforcesHoney I Shrunk the Workforce...

Most developed economies are moving frompopulation growth and abundance of labor tostatic or shrinking workforces, with productivityconcerns and pressure on public funds forpensions and healthcare for an aging population.Sixty percent of people now live in countries with

stagnant or shrinking populations.4

AcrossEurope, the working-age population is projectedto decline by 10% by 2020, and in Germanyalone, the labor force will shrink by six millionworkers over the next 15 years. China is similarlychallenged: its working-age population peaked in2010, and by 2050 more than a quarter of itspopulation will be over 65, versus 8% today. 5

Among developed nations, only the U.S. andFrance have the population proles to supporteconomic growth, primarily due to immigrationand the growth of minority populations. All eyesare on Germany to see if its open door policy toEurope’s refugees will be the key to address itsskills decit in years to come.

Tapping Diverse Talent the World Over

Combined with the skills mismatch, this loominglabor scarcity is accelerating a global war fortalent that will inuence everything from wherecompanies are based to employment andimmigration legislation. Demographics alreadyimpact the workplace: people are living longerand working older, the labor force is more diversethan ever and migration is reaching levels not seenfor decades. New groups naturally demand equaltreatment and opportunities; it is no longer

acceptable that women are underrepresented inleadership, get access to fewer opportunities orearn less. Population trends that have beenforecast for decades are reaching the tipping point

at which they will truly be felt by employers.Employers will need to move on from circularconversations about diversity and act to tapunderutilized talent pools.

Some companies and policy makers are beginningto think differently about making better use of thefull workforce including older workers, people withdisabilities, migrants, veterans and minorities.Others are reinventing retirement models. PrimeMinister Abe is encouraging Japanese employers tobring more women into the labor market. In the U.S.oil and gas and aerospace employers with agingworkforces are retaining skills by engineering theprolonged exit for older workers, phased retirementsand encore careers to transfer knowledge anddevelop the next generation. China is ahead ofthe curve addressing the global talent shortageby increasing its investment in higher education.Whereas in 2013 China had just 17% of 25-34year-olds with a tertiary education across G20countries, by 2030 the OECD predicts it will have27%. Enticing Chinese graduates to chooseChinese companies over foreign employers isalso plugging their brain drain. 6

The Evolution of Talent Attractionand People Management

For companies to compete, HR will continue tobecome more customized to individuals andtargeted to specic populations. As individualstake on more career responsibility, employers willbe forced to plug into their careers, engage andretain them. The high touch, functional HR modelwill shift to a high-tech, low touch model. It will bemore in line with other social channels that areopen, integrated, self-driven and even gamied,



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versus the siloed, password protected, transactionalapproach of the twentieth century.

Access to information will change the way an

organization drives better performance. The old styleof workforce management with interviews and annualreviews will move towards real workforce performancemanagement using assessment, online behavior, ongoingfeedback and real-time performance data to driveindividual-level continuous improvement. Continuallyimproving the experience to broaden reach and increaseloyalty by building social channels will reduce sourcingcosts and drive fresh opportunities to attract and retaingreat people. Companies unable or slow to transitionwill be at a competitive disadvantage.

The Rise of Individual Choice —What Have You Done For Me Lately?Consumers have more control than ever. Transparency,access and low cost means people can choose — globalor local, corporate or artisan — so business needs toact differently. Individual choice has driven the Makers

Movement and growth of the C2C market withthe rise of Uber, Airbnb, Craigslist, quikr andmore will come. The rise of the consumer voicemanifests itself too in the labor market where the

basic relationship between employers andemployees is changing.

The Employer-Employee Relationshiphas Reached a Tipping Point

The old culture of paternalism and loyalty thatonce characterized the employment relationshiphas given way to a more detached, mutualself-interest that is often more transient.Employer-employee trust is at an all timelow. Today, choice, wages and opportunitiesare dictated by skills, not tenure. This lackof trust is felt by employers too who worry thatemployees will leave once their skills have beendeveloped. Some countries have tried to protectthe old job for life model, retaining rigidemployment legislation that is unaffordable andunsustainable, but career security — a person’sability to move on or up, independent of theiremployer — will start to replace job security.

As in-demand talent drives the shift towards amore candidate-focused job market,

development opportunities, training and clearcareer paths that improve employee engagementwill be crucial. Career ladders will give way tocareer waves as Millennials prepare to run awork ultramarathon, wanting the exibility toswitch gears at different stages, and insisting onOne Life — the work home integration thatallows them to pursue goals professionally andpersonally, when it suits them.

The Route ToCareer Security

Career security means focusing on skillsdevelopment, allowing people to changepaths, pace and be employable for longer.

Next Job / Upwards / Lateral• Career development, switch jobs,

move on or move up (graduates;second jobbers; career changers)

New Direction• Career transition, move on or

move up, change pace andlearn new skills (parentreturners; veterans;career changers)

Encore Careers / Prolonged Exit• Work less, stay longer with more choice,

and greater exibility (retirees; downsizers)

First Job• Bridge to work, develop hard and soft skills, learn on

the job (graduates; school leavers; unemployed; students)

Pre-Employent• Seek out career guidance, gain work experience

or apprenticeships (students; school leavers)

The old style of workforcemanagement with interviews andannual reviews will move towards

real workforce performancemanagement using assessment,online behavior, ongoing feedbackand real-time performancedata to drive individual-levelcontinuous improvement.



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More than ever, individuals will pursuecareers with multiple employers rather thana job for life. The Haves , with sought after talent,are in a better bargaining position and able to

manage their own careers. The Have Nots , thosewithout in-demand skills, feel increasinglydisposable and marginalized. Employers will haveto work harder to drive engagement andproductivity especially among the Rest of Us .Employers will need to shift mindsets and providemore tools, support and opportunities so workerschoose them as the workplace to upskill and stayrelevant. New work models are emerging that willdrive productivity gainsand change this

outdated, unevenemployer-employeerelationship. New rules ofengagement will shift thebalance to self-drivenindividualization.

The Collective Voice ofthe Individual — Listen Up HR

External forces and public opinion today exertenormous pressure on corporations. Once it wastrade unions that drove policy and salary, butnow individual choice supported by social mediais demonstrating the collective power of theindividual to affect changes like doubling wagesfrom national minimums to $15 per hour even inthe low skilled service sector. The labor market ischanging and those jobs that were once intendedfor students and part-time working mothers arenow the full-time ‘careers’ of many. Employers areunder increasing social pressure to pay wagesthat support individuals with families. This tensionwill threaten job numbers and may lead toincreased automation, so employers and policy-makers will need to carefully manage that tensionin the future.

Perceptions are Real — Employer Brandhas Never Been More Important

For employers, greater individual choice meansnding new ways to attract, engage and retainthe people they need to succeed. Platforms

like LinkedIn, glassdoor.com and others haveentered the online jobs market expanding theircore service while providing access to wagecomparisons, corporate culture and career paths

like never before. Organizations have to workharder to protect their image online and brandthemselves as a desirable place to work. Therecent New York Times Amazon article is one ofthe highest prole, white collar Them and Usexposés and the rise of the collective voice meansit’s unlikely to be the last.

Companies and individuals choose to work withorganizations that share their values and have a

clear social purpose.Eighty-three percent ofconsumers would switchbrands if a differentbrand of similar qualitysupported a goodcause 7 and socialpurpose can be the

deciding factor when doing business. 8 GenerationZ especially are both socially savvy and clear ontheir priorities. They want to be paid well and wanttheir work to have meaning, to be part of acompany that is successful in terms of prot and

makes clear the connection between doing welland doing good. Employers must shift from a localto global mindset when working to attract, hire andretain top talent. Employer brand has never beenmore important or more exposed.

Client Sophistication:Transparency of Everythingand the Evolution of Platforms

The proliferation of technology and access todata has kicked off a corporate gold rush in

search of greater insight and improved efciency.Organizations are increasingly applying supplychain sophistication to talent acquisition andretention, while clients, regulators and consumersare demanding greater insight into information andhow it is handled. Before the gains can be realized,companies must learn to use these new toolswithout drowning in data. Now that it is possible tomeasure everything, the difculty is sifting thenuggets from the noise.

The Haves , with sought after talent, arein a better bargaining position and ableto manage their own careers. The HaveNots , those without in-demand skills, feelincreasingly disposable and marginalized.



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Knowing Me, Knowing You

With big data, companies know their customerslike never before. From the employee’s perspective,mass individualization provides personalizedexperiences supported by data and technology.

The U.S. retailer Target made a stir by guring outwhen customers were pregnant and mailing themcoupons for baby products. Facebook andLinkedIn tailor ads to individual customers, andGoogle’s predictive algorithms have been able toforecast everything from election results to thespread of disease. But big data also creates

cyber risks. High-prole cyber-attacks againstorganizations like Sony, Talk Talk, JP Morgan andeBay give leaders pause. Experis research 9 foundthat security is the most frequently cited in-demandand hard to ll skill according to CEOs and CTOsglobally, with 32% of IT leaders seeking to recruitthose with specialist security skills. Data privacy,digital security and cybercrime will continue to hitthe headlines.

A lack of current employee data is increasinglyseen as a major vulnerability for companies. Asmany as 80% of businesses lack a reliable pictureof who is working on their premises, 10 raisingserious concerns for risk and legal departments.Companies expect digital detail on employeesrevealing everything from criminal records anddrug histories to emergency contacts andtimesheets at the click of a button. This increasingdemand for real time insight into people practices

will radically reshape the workforce solutionsindustry. The information age will continue tocreate new responsibilities.

The Odd Couple — Will Mash-Upsand HR Fix the Labor Market?

As this wave of data and new tools hits, theHR function is becoming increasingly complexand companies are relying more on outsidepartners and individuals to enhancecapabilities, create more exibility andincrease time to value. Companies will knowtheir own people better too. Greater use ofbehavioral and intelligence tests and digitalperformance scorecards will help employerstransition from workforce reporting to workforceanalytics in search of increased productivity,performance and employee engagement. Newmodels of collaboration and co-opetition — withmash-ups like Samsung making chips for Apple’siPhones — will foster better supply chain analysisand create interdependence among organizationswhile allowing them to leverage each other’sstrengths and be more agile. HR needs to learnfrom this co-opetition to identify rapid and scalableintegration of new capabilities.

Ultimately, data and aggregation should enablecompanies to make better decisions aroundhiring, development and workforce managementstrategies. It can help leaders understandperformance, spot opportunities and anticipaterisks. The difculty is knowing how to read the tealeaves and draw useful insights from the numbers.

Technological Revolution isChanging the Way Work Gets DoneOut With the Old, In With the New

Technology has created shorter business-cyclesand competition that is increasingly global. Giventhe constant change, it is harder for individuals tokeep their skills up to date or for educators to predict

Greater use of behavioral and intelligencetests and digital performance scorecardswill help employers transition fromworkforce reporting to workforce analyticsin search of increased productivity,performance and employee engagement.

Organizations are increasingly applying supply chain sophistication to talent acquisition and retention, while clients, regulators and consumersare demanding greater insight into information and how it is handled.



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what hiring managers will need three years from now.While the debate over whether technological changeleads to “job replacement or displacement”continues, what is certain is that we have not yet

seen the full impact of technology on low andmid-skilled jobs. With the development of betterarticial intelligence, we will soon see the impact onwhite collar roles too, in higher-skilled roles likeauditing and accounting. Up to 47% of U.S. jobs in2010 were highly likely to become computerized inthe next 10-20 years. 11 If history is a guide, the newindustries and opportunities created should ultimatelysurpass those that go, but the transition will bedifcult with winners and losers in the labor market.

The Human Cloud and High Touch TechnologyIn our hyper-networked, data-heavy environment,technology has dramatically lowered the barriers tomarket entry and is shifting power from producers toconsumers. The rise of the so-called Gig Economy,the trading of individual tasks (gigs) leveragingtechnology platforms, is now a daily phenomenon.

This lessens the need for traditional mass marketingand favors companies that develop closer, morepersonal relationships with consumers. In somecases, individual inuencers with huge followingson YouTube and Instagram are seen as moretrustworthy, credible and relatable to consumers.

Technology is also challenging the value ofbrands and creating new ways of building trust,especially with the growth of the Sharing Economy.People previously looked to larger, better-knowncompanies to guarantee high quality service, butwith the advent of the Ratings Economy the Etsyartist, Airbnb landlord, TaskRabbit designer orother ‘unbrands’ can be deemed just as or morereliable. Amazon’s Handmade is prepping a new

marketplace for handcrafted goods. The ve mainsharing sectors — peer-to-peer nance, onlinestafng, peer-to-peer accommodation, car sharing

and music video streaming — have the potential toincrease global revenues from around $15 billiontoday to $335 billion by 2025. 12 The evolution oftrust has opened the door to millions of small-scale

producers and kicked off a Makers’ Movement thathas multinationals quaking in their Goliath boots.

As consumers seek a more personal, peer-to-peertransaction for products and services we will seeeven more Human Cloud-style solutions permeatingmarkets, though to date most have struggled toachieve scale. Still, with so many of these low-overhead options emerging, margins will continueto be squeezed by small-scale rms leveragingonline platforms across a range of established

industries, including stafng. Now that technologyfacilitates easier connections between demand andsupply for work, the challenge is achieving the rightbalance between worker protections offered bytraditional, full-time employment and the newmore informal, less secure models like Upwork,crowdSPRING or Freelancer.com. Still a microcosmof the labor market, these recongurations areevidence that new ways of getting work done areemerging and that consumers and workersdemand it. The actual number of jobs impactedmay not be substantial, yet employee expectationsand demand will be shaped by these changes.

Wearables, Sensors and Services

The digitization of daily life through wearable orimplantable technology, intelligent sensors andthe Internet of Everything will impact home, workand business models. Employees ‘clock-in’ onsmartphones, sensors in vehicles record routes anddeliveries, and dashboard cameras record everymovement. Producers increasingly stay in touchwith their products, whether that is Apple collectinganonymous user data or Boeing monitoring jetengines to ensure they are working properly.



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The uberization of work provides opportunities for people to supplementtheir income and get specic tasks or projects done in real-time.

This new connectedness will help companiesunderstand everything better — transforming theinformation they get, the products they developand the behavioral activity they monitor.

In HR, increasing this connectedness will enablecompanies to know their people and productsbetter, coordinate large, spread out workforces,map their talent pipelines, and make predictionsmore accurately. Corporate customers make up1% of wearable device sales today, but willaccount for 17% by 2020. 13 This rise in wearableslike Fitbit and Jawbone will enable employers tocapture data on employees’ health, as part ofwellness programs intended to promote well-beingand productivity. HR will also make greater use ofnew digital systems such as applicant trackingsystems to monitor recruitment, human resourceinformation systems to interact with employees, andanalytics and assessment tools to drive efciencyand longer-term planning. Standardized processes,like on-boarding or benets management will be

both automated and individualized. Many largeremployers have created internal online communitiesto communicate with employees and also drawtogether geographically spread out employeepopulations. Ultimately, workforce platformswhich bring together numerous technologiesand systems and crunch thousands of gigabytesof data will help HR better engage and managethe workforce.

New Ways of Getting Work Done — A Recongured Labor Market

Technological disruption will continue to bringrapid change and create new ways to get workdone. The uberization of work providesopportunities for people to supplement theirincome and get specic tasks or projects donein real-time. This ability to harness talent locally,virtual or real, brings awareness as well as newsources of competitive advantage. Individuals

are able to monetize their time and skills onlinevia Upwork and Freelancer.com, serving anon-demand Talent Now global market. Again,as the reality of this new work ‘opportunity’ isbeginning to dawn, individuals feel the paradoxof choice: exibility and monetizing downtimeis a positive alongside the unpredictability ofincome and lack of employment stability. Asthe labor market continues its reconguration,people’s emotional need for security will not

disappear and we will be increasingly askingwho is taking care of these individuals, who isproviding the security in terms of taxation andsocial security, and who will pay for it?

CONCLUSIONIn this world of certain uncertainty, organizationsmust adapt to a faster-paced environment andposition themselves to capitalize more on transientcompetitive advantage. This will require a different

approach to workforce strategy, to ensurecompanies have the right talent at the right time.

As industries rapidly evolve, jobs will be createdand displaced resulting in an ever more complexlabor market in terms of both supply and demand.Companies will stand out in the Human Age byserving as effective platforms for organizing howpeople and businesses interact, buy and work.Out of this transition period, new ways ofgetting work done will continue to emerge.



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Sources

1 The Human Age, ManpowerGroup, March 2011.

2 2015 Talent Shortage Survey, ManpowerGroup, May 2015.

3 European Economic Forecast, European Commission, January 2015.

4 Dobbs, Richard, Manyika, James and Woetzel, Jonathan. No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends. New York: McKinsey & Company, 2015.

5 Education Indicators in Focus, OECD, April 2015

6 The China Effect on Global Innovation, McKinsey Global Institute, October 2015.

7 2012 Global Consumer Survey, Edelman goodpurpose ®, April 2012.

8 2015 Edelman Trust Barometer Global Results, Edelman, February 2015.

9 Experis IT Research Study, January 2016.

10 Finding the Missing Workforce, TAPFIN, June 2015.

11 Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact, World Economic Forum, September 2015.

12 The Sharing Economy - Sizing the Revenue Opportunity, PwC, August 2014.

13 Olson, Parmy. 2015. “More Bosses Expected to Track Their Staff Though Wearables In The Next 5 Years,” Forbes, 1 June.

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Copyright ©2016 ManpowerGroup. All rights reserved.

ABOUT MANPOWERGROUPManpowerGroup ® (NYSE: MAN) is the world’s workforce expert, creatinginnovative workforce solutions for more than 65 years. As workforce experts,we connect more than 600,000 people to meaningful work across a widerange of skills and industries every day. Through our ManpowerGroup family ofbrands – Manpower ®, Experis ®, Right Management ® and ManpowerGroup ® Solutions – we help more than 400,000 clients in 80 countries and territoriesaddress their critical talent needs, providing comprehensive solutions to

resource, manage and develop talent. In 2015, ManpowerGroup was namedone of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the fth consecutive year andone of Fortune’s Most Admired Companies, conrming our position as themost trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroupmakes powering the world of work humanly possible.

www.manpowergroup.com

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