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Hubbert’s Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change
Dave RutledgeChair, Division of Engineering and Applied Science
Caltech
ASPO-USAHouston, Texas
October 19, 2007
slides with sources (.ppt) and spreadsheets (.xls) at http://rutledge.caltech.edu/
The UN Panel on Climate Change
• This year the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore
• The IPCC released its 4th assessment report– Updated measurements show that the
temperature is rising 0.13°C per decade– Report discusses climate simulations for 40
scenarios
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2050 2100
Ann
ual F
ossi
l-Fue
l CO
2 E
mis
sion
s, G
tCA1 AIM A1 ASF
A1 Image A1 Message
A1 Minicam A1 Maria
A1C AIM A1C Message
A1C Minicam A1G AIM
A1G Message A1G Minicam
A1V1 Minicam A1V2 Minicam
A1T AIM A1T Message
A1T Maria A2 ASF
A2 AIM A2G Image
A2 Message A2 Minicam
A2-A1 Minicam B1 Image
B1 AIM B1 ASF
B1 Message B1 Maria
B1 Minicam B1T Message
B1High Message B1High Minicam
B2 Message B2 AIM
B2 ASF B2 Image
B2 Maria B2 Minicam
B2High Minicam B2C Maria
The 40 UN IPCC Scenarios
• Ratio of total carbon-dioxide emissions is 4:1 from top to bottom• The ratio is closer to 10:1 if the years beyond 2100 are considered• Oil production in 13 scenarios has not peaked by 2100
Outline• The 4th UN IPCC Assessment Report• Hubbert’s peak
– The history of US oil production– Reserves– How much oil and gas will the world produce?
• The Coal Question– The history of British coal production– American coal– How much coal will the world produce?
• Discussion– Alternatives to fossil fuels– Simulation of future CO2 levels and temperatures– Summary– Proposal ⎯ Fossil-Fuel Preserves– Conclusions
0
100
200
1900 1950 2000 2050
Cum
ulat
ive
Pro
duct
ion,
Gb .
Cumulative Plot for US Oil225Gb ultimate
31Gb remaining Reserves are 22Gb
0
200
400
600
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Ulti
mat
e Pr
oduc
tion,
Gb
Fits for ultimate
Cumulative
Vincent McKelvey 1961 USGS
Historical Fits for the Ultimate
Donald Gautier 1995 USGS
Hubbert 1956DeGolyer and McNaughton 1956
Reserves and Resources• Reserves are resources that can be extracted at
current prices and with current technology• For oil and natural gas, remaining production should be
larger than the reserves, because of future discoveries• Coal reserves are calculated in three steps
1. Measure the coal seams2. Apply restrictions, like minimum seam thickness, maximum
depth, and forbidden areas3. Multiply by a recovery factor to account for coal left behind
• Wolfgang Zittel and Joerg Schindler of the German Energy Watch Group have noticed that for many countries, coal reserves have been dropping at a rate that is much larger than production, and they propose that the remaining production will be less than the reserves
2%
4%
6%
0 1 2Cumulative Production, Tboe
Gro
wth
Rat
e fo
r Cum
ulat
ive .
Rate Plot for World Oil and Gas
• Tboe = trillion barrels of oil equivalent• UN IPCC scenarios assume 11-15Tboe is available
Fit is 3.2Tboe Remaining WEC Reserves are 2.6Tboe
1983
British Coal Photo by John Cornwell
The Coal QuestionStanley Jevons (1865)
0
100
200
300
1850 1900 1950 2000
Annu
al P
rodu
ctio
n, M
t
1913
6% of peak
• Mt = millions of metric tons
British Coal Production
0
50
100
150
200
1850 1900 1950 2000
Ulti
mat
e P
rodu
ctio
n, G
t .Historical Fits for the British Ultimate
• Edward Hull used a recovery factor of 2/3• Only 29% of Hull’s reserves have been produced
Edward Hull
Geological Survey 1864
Fit for ultimate
Cumulative
World Energy Council surveys (no recovery factor in early surveys)
American Coal
Photo by Aaron Hockney
0
500
1,000
1850 1900 1950 2000
Annu
al P
rodu
ctio
n, M
t .American Coal Production
West of the Mississippi
Total
• Clean-Air Act during Nixon administration encouraged use of low-sulfur western coal
0%
5%
10%
0 5 10 15
Cumulative Production, Gt
Gro
wth
Rat
e fo
r Cum
ulat
ive .
Coal West of the Mississippi
• Montana is the state with the largest reserves, 68Gt, but production is only 36Mt per year ($400 million dollars per year)
Fit is for 33Gt remaining Reserves are 79Gt without Montana
1970
0
500
1,000
1,500
1920 1960 2000
Res
erve
s, G
t
Coal Commission 4,054 years
Paul Averitt (USGS)2,136y
1,433yBureau of Mines/EIA
(based on Paul Averitt’s surveys)
368y 270y 236y
Reserves History for American Coal
Are US Coal Reserves Too High?
"Present estimates of coal reserves are based upon methods that have not been reviewed or revised since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970s. Recent programs to assess reserves in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually minable reserves."
from the National Academy of Sciences Report on Coal, June, 2007
USGS Assessment for Illinois
• From the USGS National Coal Assessment for the Illinois basin
• As more restrictions are taken into account, the reserves drop
• We will take the reserves to be an upper limit for remaining production
0%
4%
8%
0 20 40 60
Cumulative Production, Gt
Gro
wth
Rat
e fo
r Cum
ulat
ive .
Coal East of the Mississippi
Fit is 37Gt remaining Reserves are 96Gt
Pre-war
1949
ChineseCoal
Photo by Edwin Moise
0%
5%
10%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Cumulative Production, Gt
Gro
wth
Rat
e fo
r Cum
ulat
ive .
Rate Plot for China
Trend line for 88Gt remaining Reserves are 189Gt1970
• Reserves from the Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources 2001 by way of Sandro Schmidt at the German resources agency BGR
0%
1%
2%
50 60 70 80Cumulative Production, Gt
Gro
wth
Rat
e fo
r Cum
ulat
ive .
Rate Plot for Europe
• France closed its last mine in 2004• The last mines in the former West Germany will close by 2018
Trend for 21Gt remaining Reserves are 44Gt
(down from 122Gt in 1999)
1994
0%
5%
10%
0 5 10 15
Cumulative Production, Gt
Gro
wth
Rat
e fo
r Cum
ulat
ive .
Rate Plot for South Asia
Line is for 5% per year growth Reserves are 68Gt
(down from 107Gt in 2002)
0%
3%
6%
0 10 20 30 40Cumulative Production, Gt
Gro
wth
Rat
e fo
r Cum
ulat
ive .
.
Former Soviet Union
Fit for 36Gt remaining Reserves are 226Gt
Collapse
1981
• It is probably time to cut the Ukrainian reserves for the Donets Basin to include only coal at working mines
• The Siberian economy is only about half the size it was in Soviet times
Projections vs Reserves for World Coal
• UN IPCC scenarios assume 18Tboe is available for production
Region Projection Gt Reserves Gt37 96
79Montana 68Central and South America 16
Former Soviet Union 36 226
China 88 189South Asia 68
77
4430
903
33
50
2116
435 (1.6Tboe)
Eastern USWestern US w/o Montana
Australia and New Zealand
EuropeAfrica
World (at 3.6boe/t)
(down)
(down)
(down)
(down)
(down)
0
2
4
6
1960 2000 2040 2080
Cum
ulat
ive
Pro
duct
ion,
Tbo
e .
90% in 2076
1.6Tboe coal remaining
4.7Tboe fossil fuels remaining
Future Fossil-Fuels Production
Alternatives to Fossil Fuels
• Hydroelectric and nuclear are each about 15% of world electricity
• Wind– 74GW capacity (1.0% of world electricity)– Capacity has increased by a factor of 10 in 9 years
• Ethanol and biodiesel– 700kboe/d (0.8% of world oil)– Production has increased by a factor of 10 in 25 years
• Solar– Photovoltaics are 8GW capacity (0.1% of world electricity)– Capacity has increased by a factor of 100 in 22 years– Concentrating Solar Thermal is increasing rapidly in
California, current bids are 11 cents to 12 cents per kWh
0
1,000
2,000
2000 2050 2100Cum
ulat
ive
Futu
re F
ossi
l-Fue
l . C
O2
Em
issi
ons,
GtC
.
Comparing with the UN IPCC Scenarios
• Our projection has lower emissions than any of the 40 IPCC scenarios• This is still true even with full coal reserves• Jean Laherrere has been pointing out that something is wrong for years
Projection
0
5
10
2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Foss
il-Fu
el C
O2
Em
issi
ons,
GtC
.
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
CO
2 C
once
ntra
tion,
ppm
.
Simulated Carbon-Dioxide Levels
Projection (solid) 50% Stretch-out (dashed)
• Our projection gives a peak CO2 concentration of 460ppm• Simulations from the program MAGICC from Tom Wigley at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. This program was used in the earlier UN IPCC Assessment Reports.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Tem
pera
ture
Ris
e, °
C . Projection
50% Stretch-out
Recovery 800 years
Future coal burning +0.3°C
+1.7°C
Simulated Temperature Rises
• 0.1°C of the rise is associated with future US coal burning, and this could be reduced by carbon-dioxide capture and burial
Summary
• The projection for remaining coal production is 435Gt, half of reserves
• The projection for the year of 90% exhaustion of world fossil fuels is 2076, giving a time frame for alternatives
• To reduce the temperature peak in the next century, it is critical to reduce ultimate production, not just slow down current consumption
Proposal ⎯ Fossil-Fuel Preserves
• Wouldn’t our descendents appreciate having oil, natural gas, and coal left in the ground, rather than flattened mountains and more CO2 in the air or buried?
• Federal lands account for 1/3 of fossil-fuel production
• We could make fossil-fuel preserves by not giving new leases for drilling and mining
• Future chemists could have feedstock for the petrochemical industry ⎯ oil, gas, and coal have special chemical properties that are lost if we just burn them
Conclusions
• For climate change, less minable coal is good news
• We need to keep up the present high growth rate for alternatives
2007 Houston World Oil Conference Proceedings
• Conference Program• Conference DVD• Video Highlights• Peak Oil Review• ASPO-USA
