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Hubbert’s Peak and BeyondThe Future of Liquid Fuels
Richard J. McDonald, [email protected]
Presented to: Department of EngineeringU.S. Naval Academy
Annapolis, MD.
January 27, 2012
USA Conventional OilProduction
Dr. M. King Hubbert 1903-1989
United States Oil Production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1800 1900 2000 2100Pro
du
cti
on
(m
illio
ns b
bls
/year)
Data to 1955 Slope
1970
USA Conventional OilProduction
Dr. M. King Hubbert 1903-1989
United States Oil Production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1800 1900 2000 2100Pro
du
cti
on
(m
illio
ns b
bls
/year) Data to 1955
HC for 219 Bbbls
Data from 1956
Slope
1970
Resource Production Profile
0
20
40
60
80
100
Time
% P
rod
uced
(Q
)
Q MAX
AmountProduced
Resource Production Profile
0
20
40
60
80
100
Time
% P
rod
uced
(Q
)
Q MAX
AmountProduced
ProductionRate
Centroid
2
Q MAX
Norway Production
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
illio
ns
BB
LS
/year)
EIA Data1979 Peak2000 PeakSum Peak
Norway Production
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
illio
ns
BB
LS
/year)
EIA Data1979 Peak2000 PeakSum PeakPrice Data
$100.
Pric
e p
er b
arrre
l
$20.
$40.
$60.
$80.
United Kingdom Oil Production
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040Year
millio
n
Production data1984.5 Peak1998.3 Peak2008.9 PeakSum Line
Saudi Arabia Oil Production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Production1954 Peak1966 Peak1977 "SPIKE"1999 Peak2040 peakSum Line
Pro
du
cti
on
: M
illio
ns b
bls
/ Y
ear
Saudi Arabia Oil Production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Production1954 Peak1966 Peak1977 "SPIKE"1999 Peak2040 peakSum Line
Pro
du
cti
on
: M
illio
ns b
bls
/ Y
ear
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Year
Millio
ns o
f B
arr
ells
Stated Reserves
Reserves-jump
Res-jump-prod
Prod*20
Production (x20)
1980 1980
1990 20001970 2010
Saudi Reserves
Estimates of Total Oil in Place
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Weeks (1959)
Shell (1968)
Moody (1970)
Linden (1973)
Adams & Kerby (1975)
Folinsbee (1976)
Nelson (1977)
Nehring (1978)
Meyerhof (1979)
Halbouty (1981)
Nehring (1982)
Martin (1984)
Masters (1987)
Bookout (1989)
Campbell (1992)
Masters (1994)
Campbell (1995)
USGS [95%] (2000)
Defeyes
DOE EIA present
McDonald
Trillions of Barrels
World Oil Production
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
Year
millio
ns b
bls
/year
Production1940 Peak1961 Peak1975 Peak2011 PeakSum Line
2011Peak
20441/2 Max
2024? Crisis
World Oil Production
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1850 1950 2050 2150
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
illio
ns B
BLs/y
ear)
Production"1940 Peak"1961 Peak1975 Peak2011 PeakUnconv Prod1T UnconventionalSum Line
Year
2014 2087
Beyond Hubbert’s Peak
World Oil Production
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
Product
ion (
Mill
ions
BB
Ls/y
ear) 2010 Peak
20451/2 Max
Year
Synthetic Liquid Transportation Fuels Jet-A, JP-5, Diesel
High Energy Density Existing Infrastructure
Fuel Availability Better Performance Cleaner Burning Carbon-neutral
Fischer-Tropsch Process
Synthesis gas ( CO + H2)Production
Fischer-TropschProcess
With Catalyst150-300 C
Natural Gas,Coal, Biomass Seawater + Air
Upgrader
Electricity Heat
JP-5
nuclear + water + airprocess to produce JP-5
Membrane Gas Absorber(TNO - Netherlands)
NEL hydrogen electrolyser(Norway)
ElectrolysisH2O to H2 + O2
CO2 ExtractionFischer-TropschProcess
JP-5
Idaho National LaboratoriesAdvanced ReactorsFischer Tropsch with Baard Energy
RentechFischer-Tropsch
SyntroleumFischer-TropschUpgrading
Westinghouse-ToshibaSmall Modular ReactorAP1000
There is lots of help our there
Shell GTL
SasolGTL & CTL
NavyReactors NRL
The Road Forward
At a NAVY Base
Build it!
Iran Reserves
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35Year
millio
ns o
f b
are
lls
Iran Res
Res-"jumps"
Res- "jumps"-cum
1970 1980 1990 2000
F-35 Engine
Iran Oil Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
illio
ns b
bls
/year)
Production1949 Peak1967.6 Peak1974.6 Peak1995 Peak2037 PeakSum Peak
Year
Iran Oil Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
illio
ns b
bls
/year) Production
1949 Peak
1967.6 Peak
1974.6 Peak
2019 Peak
Sum Peak
1995 Peak
Year
Iran Oil Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
illio
ns b
bls
/year)
Production1949 Peak1967.6 Peak1974.6 Peak1995 Peak2037 PeakSum Peak
Year
