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Our July issue features a full Queen's Plate analysis as well as meet previews for Saratoga, Del Mar and much more! 2YO and turf handicapping also spotlighted...and a free daily pick updated.
Citation preview
1
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
2
CONTENTS JULY 2014
5 From The Publisher
7 Page 7 Horses to Watch
Page updates with a live ldquoBUZZrdquo play in-today Bookmark
9 The Teaser
Topics that titillate the racing mind
13 Countdown to the Crown
Season finale with Queen‟s Plate picks and analysis from Plonk
24 New Dawn at Del Mar
Nahill looks at the revamped turf amp discusses Dmr with top bdquocappers
31 Itrsquos lsquoToga Time
Nadeau analyzes winning angles at his hometown track of Saratoga
37 BRIS Handicapping Hints
DeRosa serves up Saratoga stats
40 Winning Angles 2YOs
Shottenkirk offers insight to his approach with baby races
45 Back to Night School ndash 2YO
Baby Races Byrne Hazelton Bredar amp Plonk give juvy tips from our archives
48 Summer Yardwork AP
Spencer delves into Million Preview Day with a closer look at history
53 Harness Handicapping
Warkentin works the Takter Factor
57 AQHA Handicapping
Claussen takes you into the starting gate
62 Playing on Paper
See our marked PPs and attack for conditioned claiming races
67 Stakes ScheduleKey Dates
Also Key Haskell stats amp trends
72 Galloping Out
Plonk explains why ldquobad infordquo can come from good places
3
4
From the Publisher
This summer issue captures the absolute joys of racing and the beautiful thing is that
nothing here is unique This game has a wonderful ability annually to replenish itself with optimism hellip if you can just wade through the negativity to get to it Think about it Who doesnrsquot love Del Mar Saratoga 2-year-olds on the rise turf racing the Queenrsquos Plate or the run-up to the Hambletonian and All American Futurity If you donrsquot like these annual staples of summer to paraphrase the late great baseball skipper Sparky Anderson ldquothen you donrsquot like ice creamrdquo We spend millions in this industry trying to invent something that people will like Then summer comes around and reminds us that all we had to do was wait for it This game mirrors the carousel that takes children on a daily journey around beautiful Congress Park in Saratoga Springs We enjoy the circle of racing life every time it spins our way - JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers
Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau
Brian W Spencer Jeff Nahill
Martha Claussen Ken Warkentin
Ed DeRosa
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers
Adam Coglianese NYRA Michael Lisa Meadowlands
Michael Burns Woodbine Benoit Photos Del Mar
Four Footed Photos Arlington Coady Photography Sam Houston
5
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
1 RACETRACK DR | EAST RUTHERFORD NJ | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
$750000E
MEADOWLANDS PACE
Captaintreacherous 2013 Pace Winner 1481
SPECIAL EARLY POST TIME 630 PM14 Race Card | T-Shirt Giveaway | Live Music by the Past Masters
Join the Conversation
WATCH LIVE9 pm - 10 pm
6
We update this page of the digital magazine
every racing dayndashkeep coming back Each dayrsquos play derived directly from that dayrsquos officialhellip
SUNDAY JULY 27 2014Race 7 ndash Arlington Park2 Grand Isle (6-1)Our Eyes Settled just off speed spied outside advanced into contention to top stretch sharp turn of foot when asked intriguing upside on turf - Brian W Spencer
Brians Playbook Win place bet Trifecta 2 with 4-6-8 with ALL = $9 for 50-cents
OUR EYES YOUR PRIZE Full Report $10 daily ($15 Sat) Subscriptions $4995 month
hellip AND $100 3 months
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7
8
THE TEASER
From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets to ice-cold brews eventually it will all make sense
Buzz Me Up Jockey Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not onehellipnot twohellipnot threehellipnot four but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack amp Casino A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one lsquobingorsquo Morales was charged with three criminal offenses possession of three working and two non-working buzzers illegal possession of a firearm and illegal possession of a prescription drug Morales was arrested posted bond and was released
The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four winsmdashone win less than the number of buzzers in his collection Teaser canrsquot help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices Orange is the New Bettor Orange is the New Black is a hit
television series on Netflix but they havenrsquot yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss
Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoriarsquos most secure jail
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
9
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
2
CONTENTS JULY 2014
5 From The Publisher
7 Page 7 Horses to Watch
Page updates with a live ldquoBUZZrdquo play in-today Bookmark
9 The Teaser
Topics that titillate the racing mind
13 Countdown to the Crown
Season finale with Queen‟s Plate picks and analysis from Plonk
24 New Dawn at Del Mar
Nahill looks at the revamped turf amp discusses Dmr with top bdquocappers
31 Itrsquos lsquoToga Time
Nadeau analyzes winning angles at his hometown track of Saratoga
37 BRIS Handicapping Hints
DeRosa serves up Saratoga stats
40 Winning Angles 2YOs
Shottenkirk offers insight to his approach with baby races
45 Back to Night School ndash 2YO
Baby Races Byrne Hazelton Bredar amp Plonk give juvy tips from our archives
48 Summer Yardwork AP
Spencer delves into Million Preview Day with a closer look at history
53 Harness Handicapping
Warkentin works the Takter Factor
57 AQHA Handicapping
Claussen takes you into the starting gate
62 Playing on Paper
See our marked PPs and attack for conditioned claiming races
67 Stakes ScheduleKey Dates
Also Key Haskell stats amp trends
72 Galloping Out
Plonk explains why ldquobad infordquo can come from good places
3
4
From the Publisher
This summer issue captures the absolute joys of racing and the beautiful thing is that
nothing here is unique This game has a wonderful ability annually to replenish itself with optimism hellip if you can just wade through the negativity to get to it Think about it Who doesnrsquot love Del Mar Saratoga 2-year-olds on the rise turf racing the Queenrsquos Plate or the run-up to the Hambletonian and All American Futurity If you donrsquot like these annual staples of summer to paraphrase the late great baseball skipper Sparky Anderson ldquothen you donrsquot like ice creamrdquo We spend millions in this industry trying to invent something that people will like Then summer comes around and reminds us that all we had to do was wait for it This game mirrors the carousel that takes children on a daily journey around beautiful Congress Park in Saratoga Springs We enjoy the circle of racing life every time it spins our way - JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers
Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau
Brian W Spencer Jeff Nahill
Martha Claussen Ken Warkentin
Ed DeRosa
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers
Adam Coglianese NYRA Michael Lisa Meadowlands
Michael Burns Woodbine Benoit Photos Del Mar
Four Footed Photos Arlington Coady Photography Sam Houston
5
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
1 RACETRACK DR | EAST RUTHERFORD NJ | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
$750000E
MEADOWLANDS PACE
Captaintreacherous 2013 Pace Winner 1481
SPECIAL EARLY POST TIME 630 PM14 Race Card | T-Shirt Giveaway | Live Music by the Past Masters
Join the Conversation
WATCH LIVE9 pm - 10 pm
6
We update this page of the digital magazine
every racing dayndashkeep coming back Each dayrsquos play derived directly from that dayrsquos officialhellip
SUNDAY JULY 27 2014Race 7 ndash Arlington Park2 Grand Isle (6-1)Our Eyes Settled just off speed spied outside advanced into contention to top stretch sharp turn of foot when asked intriguing upside on turf - Brian W Spencer
Brians Playbook Win place bet Trifecta 2 with 4-6-8 with ALL = $9 for 50-cents
OUR EYES YOUR PRIZE Full Report $10 daily ($15 Sat) Subscriptions $4995 month
hellip AND $100 3 months
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7
8
THE TEASER
From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets to ice-cold brews eventually it will all make sense
Buzz Me Up Jockey Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not onehellipnot twohellipnot threehellipnot four but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack amp Casino A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one lsquobingorsquo Morales was charged with three criminal offenses possession of three working and two non-working buzzers illegal possession of a firearm and illegal possession of a prescription drug Morales was arrested posted bond and was released
The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four winsmdashone win less than the number of buzzers in his collection Teaser canrsquot help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices Orange is the New Bettor Orange is the New Black is a hit
television series on Netflix but they havenrsquot yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss
Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoriarsquos most secure jail
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
9
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
CONTENTS JULY 2014
5 From The Publisher
7 Page 7 Horses to Watch
Page updates with a live ldquoBUZZrdquo play in-today Bookmark
9 The Teaser
Topics that titillate the racing mind
13 Countdown to the Crown
Season finale with Queen‟s Plate picks and analysis from Plonk
24 New Dawn at Del Mar
Nahill looks at the revamped turf amp discusses Dmr with top bdquocappers
31 Itrsquos lsquoToga Time
Nadeau analyzes winning angles at his hometown track of Saratoga
37 BRIS Handicapping Hints
DeRosa serves up Saratoga stats
40 Winning Angles 2YOs
Shottenkirk offers insight to his approach with baby races
45 Back to Night School ndash 2YO
Baby Races Byrne Hazelton Bredar amp Plonk give juvy tips from our archives
48 Summer Yardwork AP
Spencer delves into Million Preview Day with a closer look at history
53 Harness Handicapping
Warkentin works the Takter Factor
57 AQHA Handicapping
Claussen takes you into the starting gate
62 Playing on Paper
See our marked PPs and attack for conditioned claiming races
67 Stakes ScheduleKey Dates
Also Key Haskell stats amp trends
72 Galloping Out
Plonk explains why ldquobad infordquo can come from good places
3
4
From the Publisher
This summer issue captures the absolute joys of racing and the beautiful thing is that
nothing here is unique This game has a wonderful ability annually to replenish itself with optimism hellip if you can just wade through the negativity to get to it Think about it Who doesnrsquot love Del Mar Saratoga 2-year-olds on the rise turf racing the Queenrsquos Plate or the run-up to the Hambletonian and All American Futurity If you donrsquot like these annual staples of summer to paraphrase the late great baseball skipper Sparky Anderson ldquothen you donrsquot like ice creamrdquo We spend millions in this industry trying to invent something that people will like Then summer comes around and reminds us that all we had to do was wait for it This game mirrors the carousel that takes children on a daily journey around beautiful Congress Park in Saratoga Springs We enjoy the circle of racing life every time it spins our way - JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers
Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau
Brian W Spencer Jeff Nahill
Martha Claussen Ken Warkentin
Ed DeRosa
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers
Adam Coglianese NYRA Michael Lisa Meadowlands
Michael Burns Woodbine Benoit Photos Del Mar
Four Footed Photos Arlington Coady Photography Sam Houston
5
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
1 RACETRACK DR | EAST RUTHERFORD NJ | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
$750000E
MEADOWLANDS PACE
Captaintreacherous 2013 Pace Winner 1481
SPECIAL EARLY POST TIME 630 PM14 Race Card | T-Shirt Giveaway | Live Music by the Past Masters
Join the Conversation
WATCH LIVE9 pm - 10 pm
6
We update this page of the digital magazine
every racing dayndashkeep coming back Each dayrsquos play derived directly from that dayrsquos officialhellip
SUNDAY JULY 27 2014Race 7 ndash Arlington Park2 Grand Isle (6-1)Our Eyes Settled just off speed spied outside advanced into contention to top stretch sharp turn of foot when asked intriguing upside on turf - Brian W Spencer
Brians Playbook Win place bet Trifecta 2 with 4-6-8 with ALL = $9 for 50-cents
OUR EYES YOUR PRIZE Full Report $10 daily ($15 Sat) Subscriptions $4995 month
hellip AND $100 3 months
BUY TODAY
7
8
THE TEASER
From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets to ice-cold brews eventually it will all make sense
Buzz Me Up Jockey Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not onehellipnot twohellipnot threehellipnot four but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack amp Casino A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one lsquobingorsquo Morales was charged with three criminal offenses possession of three working and two non-working buzzers illegal possession of a firearm and illegal possession of a prescription drug Morales was arrested posted bond and was released
The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four winsmdashone win less than the number of buzzers in his collection Teaser canrsquot help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices Orange is the New Bettor Orange is the New Black is a hit
television series on Netflix but they havenrsquot yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss
Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoriarsquos most secure jail
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
9
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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on the go
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Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
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16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
4
From the Publisher
This summer issue captures the absolute joys of racing and the beautiful thing is that
nothing here is unique This game has a wonderful ability annually to replenish itself with optimism hellip if you can just wade through the negativity to get to it Think about it Who doesnrsquot love Del Mar Saratoga 2-year-olds on the rise turf racing the Queenrsquos Plate or the run-up to the Hambletonian and All American Futurity If you donrsquot like these annual staples of summer to paraphrase the late great baseball skipper Sparky Anderson ldquothen you donrsquot like ice creamrdquo We spend millions in this industry trying to invent something that people will like Then summer comes around and reminds us that all we had to do was wait for it This game mirrors the carousel that takes children on a daily journey around beautiful Congress Park in Saratoga Springs We enjoy the circle of racing life every time it spins our way - JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers
Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau
Brian W Spencer Jeff Nahill
Martha Claussen Ken Warkentin
Ed DeRosa
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers
Adam Coglianese NYRA Michael Lisa Meadowlands
Michael Burns Woodbine Benoit Photos Del Mar
Four Footed Photos Arlington Coady Photography Sam Houston
5
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
1 RACETRACK DR | EAST RUTHERFORD NJ | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
$750000E
MEADOWLANDS PACE
Captaintreacherous 2013 Pace Winner 1481
SPECIAL EARLY POST TIME 630 PM14 Race Card | T-Shirt Giveaway | Live Music by the Past Masters
Join the Conversation
WATCH LIVE9 pm - 10 pm
6
We update this page of the digital magazine
every racing dayndashkeep coming back Each dayrsquos play derived directly from that dayrsquos officialhellip
SUNDAY JULY 27 2014Race 7 ndash Arlington Park2 Grand Isle (6-1)Our Eyes Settled just off speed spied outside advanced into contention to top stretch sharp turn of foot when asked intriguing upside on turf - Brian W Spencer
Brians Playbook Win place bet Trifecta 2 with 4-6-8 with ALL = $9 for 50-cents
OUR EYES YOUR PRIZE Full Report $10 daily ($15 Sat) Subscriptions $4995 month
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7
8
THE TEASER
From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets to ice-cold brews eventually it will all make sense
Buzz Me Up Jockey Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not onehellipnot twohellipnot threehellipnot four but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack amp Casino A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one lsquobingorsquo Morales was charged with three criminal offenses possession of three working and two non-working buzzers illegal possession of a firearm and illegal possession of a prescription drug Morales was arrested posted bond and was released
The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four winsmdashone win less than the number of buzzers in his collection Teaser canrsquot help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices Orange is the New Bettor Orange is the New Black is a hit
television series on Netflix but they havenrsquot yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss
Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoriarsquos most secure jail
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
9
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
From the Publisher
This summer issue captures the absolute joys of racing and the beautiful thing is that
nothing here is unique This game has a wonderful ability annually to replenish itself with optimism hellip if you can just wade through the negativity to get to it Think about it Who doesnrsquot love Del Mar Saratoga 2-year-olds on the rise turf racing the Queenrsquos Plate or the run-up to the Hambletonian and All American Futurity If you donrsquot like these annual staples of summer to paraphrase the late great baseball skipper Sparky Anderson ldquothen you donrsquot like ice creamrdquo We spend millions in this industry trying to invent something that people will like Then summer comes around and reminds us that all we had to do was wait for it This game mirrors the carousel that takes children on a daily journey around beautiful Congress Park in Saratoga Springs We enjoy the circle of racing life every time it spins our way - JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014
Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk
Contributing Writers
Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau
Brian W Spencer Jeff Nahill
Martha Claussen Ken Warkentin
Ed DeRosa
Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)
Contributing Photographers
Adam Coglianese NYRA Michael Lisa Meadowlands
Michael Burns Woodbine Benoit Photos Del Mar
Four Footed Photos Arlington Coady Photography Sam Houston
5
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
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$750000E
MEADOWLANDS PACE
Captaintreacherous 2013 Pace Winner 1481
SPECIAL EARLY POST TIME 630 PM14 Race Card | T-Shirt Giveaway | Live Music by the Past Masters
Join the Conversation
WATCH LIVE9 pm - 10 pm
6
We update this page of the digital magazine
every racing dayndashkeep coming back Each dayrsquos play derived directly from that dayrsquos officialhellip
SUNDAY JULY 27 2014Race 7 ndash Arlington Park2 Grand Isle (6-1)Our Eyes Settled just off speed spied outside advanced into contention to top stretch sharp turn of foot when asked intriguing upside on turf - Brian W Spencer
Brians Playbook Win place bet Trifecta 2 with 4-6-8 with ALL = $9 for 50-cents
OUR EYES YOUR PRIZE Full Report $10 daily ($15 Sat) Subscriptions $4995 month
hellip AND $100 3 months
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7
8
THE TEASER
From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets to ice-cold brews eventually it will all make sense
Buzz Me Up Jockey Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not onehellipnot twohellipnot threehellipnot four but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack amp Casino A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one lsquobingorsquo Morales was charged with three criminal offenses possession of three working and two non-working buzzers illegal possession of a firearm and illegal possession of a prescription drug Morales was arrested posted bond and was released
The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four winsmdashone win less than the number of buzzers in his collection Teaser canrsquot help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices Orange is the New Bettor Orange is the New Black is a hit
television series on Netflix but they havenrsquot yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss
Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoriarsquos most secure jail
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
9
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
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74
THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT
1 RACETRACK DR | EAST RUTHERFORD NJ | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M
$750000E
MEADOWLANDS PACE
Captaintreacherous 2013 Pace Winner 1481
SPECIAL EARLY POST TIME 630 PM14 Race Card | T-Shirt Giveaway | Live Music by the Past Masters
Join the Conversation
WATCH LIVE9 pm - 10 pm
6
We update this page of the digital magazine
every racing dayndashkeep coming back Each dayrsquos play derived directly from that dayrsquos officialhellip
SUNDAY JULY 27 2014Race 7 ndash Arlington Park2 Grand Isle (6-1)Our Eyes Settled just off speed spied outside advanced into contention to top stretch sharp turn of foot when asked intriguing upside on turf - Brian W Spencer
Brians Playbook Win place bet Trifecta 2 with 4-6-8 with ALL = $9 for 50-cents
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7
8
THE TEASER
From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets to ice-cold brews eventually it will all make sense
Buzz Me Up Jockey Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not onehellipnot twohellipnot threehellipnot four but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack amp Casino A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one lsquobingorsquo Morales was charged with three criminal offenses possession of three working and two non-working buzzers illegal possession of a firearm and illegal possession of a prescription drug Morales was arrested posted bond and was released
The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four winsmdashone win less than the number of buzzers in his collection Teaser canrsquot help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices Orange is the New Bettor Orange is the New Black is a hit
television series on Netflix but they havenrsquot yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss
Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoriarsquos most secure jail
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
9
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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on the go
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Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
We update this page of the digital magazine
every racing dayndashkeep coming back Each dayrsquos play derived directly from that dayrsquos officialhellip
SUNDAY JULY 27 2014Race 7 ndash Arlington Park2 Grand Isle (6-1)Our Eyes Settled just off speed spied outside advanced into contention to top stretch sharp turn of foot when asked intriguing upside on turf - Brian W Spencer
Brians Playbook Win place bet Trifecta 2 with 4-6-8 with ALL = $9 for 50-cents
OUR EYES YOUR PRIZE Full Report $10 daily ($15 Sat) Subscriptions $4995 month
hellip AND $100 3 months
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7
8
THE TEASER
From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets to ice-cold brews eventually it will all make sense
Buzz Me Up Jockey Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not onehellipnot twohellipnot threehellipnot four but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack amp Casino A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one lsquobingorsquo Morales was charged with three criminal offenses possession of three working and two non-working buzzers illegal possession of a firearm and illegal possession of a prescription drug Morales was arrested posted bond and was released
The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four winsmdashone win less than the number of buzzers in his collection Teaser canrsquot help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices Orange is the New Bettor Orange is the New Black is a hit
television series on Netflix but they havenrsquot yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss
Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoriarsquos most secure jail
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
9
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs
The best way to watch your
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on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
8
THE TEASER
From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets to ice-cold brews eventually it will all make sense
Buzz Me Up Jockey Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not onehellipnot twohellipnot threehellipnot four but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack amp Casino A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one lsquobingorsquo Morales was charged with three criminal offenses possession of three working and two non-working buzzers illegal possession of a firearm and illegal possession of a prescription drug Morales was arrested posted bond and was released
The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four winsmdashone win less than the number of buzzers in his collection Teaser canrsquot help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices Orange is the New Bettor Orange is the New Black is a hit
television series on Netflix but they havenrsquot yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss
Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoriarsquos most secure jail
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
9
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
THE TEASER
From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets to ice-cold brews eventually it will all make sense
Buzz Me Up Jockey Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not onehellipnot twohellipnot threehellipnot four but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack amp Casino A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one lsquobingorsquo Morales was charged with three criminal offenses possession of three working and two non-working buzzers illegal possession of a firearm and illegal possession of a prescription drug Morales was arrested posted bond and was released
The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four winsmdashone win less than the number of buzzers in his collection Teaser canrsquot help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices Orange is the New Bettor Orange is the New Black is a hit
television series on Netflix but they havenrsquot yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss
Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoriarsquos most secure jail
Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe
9
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Apparently coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings Guess he didnrsquot have access to an ADW account Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting Speaking from experience Teaser understands The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbelrsquos wagers Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million Apparently authorities neglected to search Mokbelrsquos mattress and cookie jar Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name) which won millions in huge plunges The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers Which is strange because as everyone knows in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts
Mokbel once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders In 2012 he was jailed for 30 years Herersquos hoping the Aussie screws arenrsquot too hard on our fellow horseplayer In racing they say time only counts when yoursquore serving it Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley lsquostache and homespun fall-off-a-cliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldnrsquot help but to root for his horse Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday Crsquomon Whorsquos does that Guess by June 7 Steversquos fortune just plum ran out If Coburnrsquos hot streak had continued Belmont wouldrsquove run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm
10
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
That way the lsquoChrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his lifersquos most disappointing moment quickly followed by a mic in his face Losing sucks We all know that But if Steversquos going to be in the racing game hersquod better get used to the feeling In this sport the very best win about three times out of 10 Of course Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat His lsquoChrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes Coburnrsquos apology on ABCrsquos Good Morning America the following
Tuesday was heartfelt sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap) He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections but his mea culparsquos brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times Smart man Steve ya wet the bed on national TV but darn it we still love ya And that horsey you gothellipwell we canrsquot wait to see him pick lsquoem up and lay lsquoem down again You on the other hand shouldnrsquot be pickinrsquo lsquoem up and layinrsquo lsquoem down as often
- HPN
11
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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horses runwhen yoursquore
on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
12
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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on the go
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Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Queenrsquos Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk
Editorrsquos Note The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene Countdowntothecrowncom has been the home each Friday since Jan 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canadarsquos July 6 Queen Plate which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014 This weekrsquos fearless forecast
The 155th running of the Queenrsquos Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014 But oh what a way to go out A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canadarsquos ultimate classic A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle ndash including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queenrsquos Plate) Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools
Queenrsquos Plate Pace Scenario
SPEED Heart to Heart
Lexie Lou PRESS
Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset
One Destiny Man orsquo Bear
Athenian Guard MIDPACK Lions Bay
Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Amirsquos Holiday
Niigon Expresss CLOSER Matador
Tower of Texas
We Miss Artie Will Go Favored
in the Plate for Ken Ramsey
13
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Wersquoll go horse-by-horse as is our
Triple Crown race-week custom to
give you a direct take on each of
the 15 official Queenrsquos Plate
entrants
Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND Former $25000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 frac14-mile assign-ment in his only route try to date Sire Midnight Lute did produce last yearrsquos 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear LIONrsquoS BAY While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him there arenrsquot any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class The farther they run the more classpedigree matter so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds ONE DESTINY The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the rsquo14 Queenrsquos Plate
field Given he did not debut until April 20 the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 frac14-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale ATHENIAN GUARD He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs Coltimus Prime but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider Well-bred geldingrsquos mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics but his talent certainly could surprise many here Omar Moreno who piloted him to his only win returns to the saddle
14
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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on the go
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Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
MAN Orsquo BEAR The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear though the trainer says this one has shown more talent He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year Itrsquos a big form cycle move for me ldquosecond-off-the-layoffrdquo but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited Hersquos not impossible as he was a fairly productive 2YO but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation HEART TO HEART Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessicarsquos Star ndash who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then But beyond 1 mile in distance hersquos either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries ndash which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queenrsquos Plate beyond his best reach Twice hersquos failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes On pure brilliance though hersquos no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave ndash even so yoursquod prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F
Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queenrsquos Plate lead hellip but how far can they go
Exotics Inclusions
NIIGON EXPRESS Hersquos never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queenrsquos Plate off a solid runner-up vs open company allowance foes Hersquos as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote despite the fact hersquos beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut but hersquos got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris supers and Jackpot Hi-5 MAJESTIC SUNSET Irsquove been high on this maiden for some time despite failing to graduate in 9 tries He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and
15
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on the go
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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1
Where Players Win
Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
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74
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Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1
03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM
16
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
attempting to kick clear to no avail The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queenrsquos Plate given the field size composition of the lineup You canrsquot help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip He would be the most surprising of the Mark Casse-trained trio to win in my estimation hellip considering hersquos been 16-1 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine TOWER OF TEXAS Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trialrsquos third-place finisher By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire therersquos no reason the 1 frac14 miles wonrsquot suit him as well or better than anyone in this field Attfield
reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive From a betting standpoint hersquoll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity ASSERTING BEAR This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate ndash witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2 But inconsistency has been the cause for pause Hersquos been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories While best
in the Marine by a neck his DQ that day for interference was debatable Asserting Bear has a nice versatile running style
that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and
17
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyonersquos guess ndash but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel COLTIMUS PRIME While he performed well enough hersquos disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8 Still I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last yearrsquos Queenrsquos Plate aboard Midnight Aria and knowing that figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start Rider and horse appear to work well together and therersquos just something about Coltimus Prime thatrsquos like a bad girlfriend you donrsquot want to let go ofhellipeven if they drive you a little bit nuts
Win Contenders
LEXIE LOU I wonrsquot kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance It was strictly
out of left field and equally out of this world Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender But she never even came onto my Queenrsquos Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks Now shersquos a full-fledged threat When the light bulb flips on horses can do amazing things Think about 1999 and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keenelandrsquos Lexington Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ four weeks later a Preakness hero and he almost won the US Triple Crown Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queenrsquos Plate victory
Casse Closing In On First Queenrsquos Plate
2011 ndash 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 ndash 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1)
2013 ndash 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1)
Overall Plate Mark ndash 17 0-1-2
Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial and
18
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queenrsquos Plate and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart given her wide draw
MATADOR Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou Matadorrsquos final Queenrsquos Plate prep could not have been more impressive After 4 straight bids in graded stakes he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward Itrsquos fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree but hersquos bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates hersquos set for a career-best If he can handle the distance and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance this could be among Cassersquos best chances at Plate glory And a shrewd final
prep placement might deserve all the credit if hersquos successful Sunday
AMIrsquoS HOLIDAY (pictured) As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles I canrsquot help but like the way Amirsquos Holiday has been campaigned this spring with
the Queenrsquos Plate as the goal The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open
company His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carrollrsquos third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post Amirsquos Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch failing to deliver knockout punches His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make
19
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
him fit fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago
WE MISS ARTIE Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3 but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queenrsquos Plate hopes high ever since winning Keenelandrsquos G1 Breedersrsquo Futurity on Polytrack last October His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral as well as a hard-fought second in the Kittenrsquos Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn
Countdownrsquos Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014
1 Lexie Lou ndash Woodbine Oaks2 We Miss Artie ndash Spiral Stakes3 We Miss Artie ndash Plate Trial4 Speightsong ndash Queenston Stakes5 We Miss Artie ndash Kittenrsquos Joy
Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs fellow Ontario-sired runners We Miss Artie raced inside behind a slow pace and could have been bottled-up if unlucky But top US rider Javier Castellano got a super-smooth run inside when it counted
and his mount did what he needed to We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race ndash sit sit sit tackle late And thatrsquos really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace
He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front Irsquom not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace and at short odds Irsquod be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume
Photo credits Photos By Z Michael Burns (Woodbine)
Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Queenrsquos Plate Picks
WIN LEXIE LOU PLACE MATADOR
SHOW WE MISS ARTIE
20
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Canadarsquos Triple Crown - Queenrsquos
Plate Prince of Wales and Breedersrsquo
Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959
The Queenrsquos Plate dates to 1860
Seven 3-year-olds have swept
the prestigious three-race series
New Providence (1959)
Canebora (1963)
With Approval (1989)
Izvestia (1990)
Dance Smartly (1991)
Peteski (1993)
Wando (2003)
Longest-priced winners
Maternal Pride (1924) $19335 TJrsquos Lucky Moon (2002) $16600 Paolita (1943) $7650 Royal Chocolate (1973) $4810 Driving Home (1980) $4390
Fillies to Win Queenrsquos Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)
Royal Visit In 2010 Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand
to witness their 4th Queenrsquos Plate Big Red Mike won the 151st running
21
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
LAST 25 QUEENrsquoS PLATE WINNERS
2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M Campbell Nick Gonzalez
20472
2012 Strait of Dover Justin Stein Danny Vella
20199
2011 Inglorious Luis Contreras Josie Carroll
20263
2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva
Nick Gonzalez 20489
2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad
20384
2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield
20359
2007 Mike Fox Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black
20545
2006 Edenwold Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll
20530
2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel
20737
2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux
20472
2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh
20248
2002 T Js Lucky Moon Steve Bahen Vito Armata
20688
2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad
20378
2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad
20553
1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh
20313
1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher
20210
1997 Awesome Again Mike E Smith David Hofmans
20420
1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad
20380
1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield
20380
1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J Vella
20340
1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20420
1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield
20460
1991 Dance Smartly Pat Day Jim Day
20340
1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20180
1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield
20300
1-14 miles 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) Past charts
22
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
23
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
NEW
DAWN AT
DEL MAR
By Jeff Nahill
Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club The meet which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past) will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015 Meanwhile 2014 will feature a new turf course The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup So there are lots of new things ldquowhere the turf meets the surfrdquo like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver but there is plenty of old too like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert John
Sadler Jerry Hollendorfer Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller Plus the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani ndash along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux Like any track Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost It mainly depends on the weather
24
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
and how much water is put on the main track The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 pm first post On the other hand if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better Also if you see the water trucks on the track ndash or check the watering schedule at wwwdmtccom ndash the track might get tighter for an upcoming race ldquoThe (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its ownrdquo said Tom Robbins executive vice president of the DMTC ldquobut we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the timerdquo Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks
ldquoI don‟t think it‟s any harderrdquo said Jon Lindo Southern California handicapper radio host and horse owner ldquoEvery track has its little idiosyncrasies The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar In the past we had that buffer at Hollywood Park which was the in-between surface because it was almost like dirt but it was a synthetic surfacerdquo And some horses will be coming from the new two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar Los Alamitos features a dirt track which horsemen adore ndash as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring ldquoYou‟re going cold turkey going into this meetrdquo said Lindo ldquoThe Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years It‟s nothing
25
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
new We just have to adjust and pay attention ldquoI think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses) They will wake up at Del Mar The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some ticketsrdquo Terry Turrell a handicapper for Horse Player NOW is a big believer in the ldquohorses for coursesrdquo theory ldquoI tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the pastrdquo Turrell saod ldquoPlus I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic For whatever reason they seem to do well ldquoSometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays but Santa Anita baffles me too I‟m looking for a level playing field There is no replacement for observation That‟s the most important thing How is a
horse handling the trackrdquo It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack He was followed Sadler (20) Hollendorfer (16) O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11) Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home which is just north of the Del Mar race track With the closing of Hollywood Park Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita springsummer meet but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard ldquoYou know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening weekrdquo Lindo said ldquoHe has another wave of horses He‟s loaded ldquoBaffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs
26
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
and Santa Anita You know he‟s gonna come out firing ldquoHollendorfer has a bunch of horses and a lot of horses from Golden Gate so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track) You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horsesrdquo The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins) Martin Garcia (24) Edwin Maldonado (22) Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo Until Bejarano returns that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo Fernando Perez and Desormeaux A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks
The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960 The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone
27
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running The course can now accept up to 14 entries depending on the rail settings which have also changed In the past rails were zero seven and 14 feet Now Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet depending on how chewed up the course is getting ldquoWe have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the pastrdquo said Robbins ldquoObviously the course will be better next year than this year but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past ldquoIt‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biasesrdquo Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than
the old one ldquohellip except we‟re going to have more horses running which will be good for the gamblerrdquo Lindo said ldquoThe surface is similar to the old one I‟m expecting a hard firm turf course The turns are a little tighter but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference ldquoA lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses) It opens up some avenues for us I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value ldquoI had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner it leaves a bad taste in your mouth It wasn‟t fun I just want to see a good safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participaterdquo Said Turrell ldquoThe biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute That‟s a real plus Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimesrdquo It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course
28
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
quickest Last year Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15 Leparoux won‟t return this meet Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by ldquoTalamo on the turfrdquo Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014 Shockingly the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green but with upgraded stock and owners he is now a force Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965774 Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014) and Tom Proctor (four wins $408772) who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm According to Robbins Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities This is due in large part to the popular ldquoShip bdquoN Winrdquo
program which gives horses a starting bonus of $1000 and a 333 purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval The program which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet ndash including Casse who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year Casse who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry Molly Pearson Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
29
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
30
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
ITrsquoS
lsquoTOGA
TIME By Brian Nadeau
Yoursquove waited over 10 months Itrsquos finally here Saratoga is about to open
If yoursquore a racing fan and avid handicapper like me yoursquove probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season This year that day comes on July 18 but itrsquos never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet
So with that in mind letrsquos take a look at a few things to remember handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet
ever
31
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Slow Down You Move Too Fast
The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly
Yes thatrsquos exactly right
Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chicken- with-his-head-cut-off mentality The gates open they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race
Why
If yoursquore reading this piece I would assume that a) yoursquore a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft something we should all try and do each and every day
You should know by now you wonrsquot beat this game playing every race day-in and day-out Contrary to popular belief the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now at 40 days Therersquos simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the
meet Pick your spots take your time and like you should do on any given day play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll
If you have $5000 earmarked for the entire meet why spend $1000 of it on the first weekend Theyrsquoll run about 400 races at the Spa this year Take your time pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and yoursquoll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises
Therersquos no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you donrsquot like taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in
Know Your Circuit
If yoursquove taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years yoursquove certainly heard the ―know your circuit adage repeatedly Nothing is more important when betting the races but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons
One of the things Irsquoll be concentrating on is which barns
32
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring Summer meet comes to a close
Oftentimes the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn When you think about it it makes perfect sense If you canrsquot win in Elmont why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs
But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks
First letrsquos take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont especially towards the end of the meet What the novice doesnrsquot consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga And I donrsquot mean that just because the overall product is better
Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well
The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes And so on and so forth So while itrsquos nice to have a hot barn with horses in form itrsquos not as easy a progression as people might think
On the other hand the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of
horses many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time At Saratoga itrsquos common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates And
anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first timemdashno matter how good you looked blasting maidensmdashis never an easy thing to do
The Human Aspect
As for trainers handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the
33
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
meet The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez who was somewhat shockingly hitting at about 7 for much of the Belmont meet Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses but few found the winnerrsquos circle But as the meet started to wind down hersquos raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until Irsquom proven wrong
Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn Irsquoll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow
Belmont McLaughlin is just 6-for-42 (through July 2) at Belmont paltry numbers by his standards Irsquom looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa Irsquoll be concentrating on McLaughlinrsquos older horses while staying away from his first-time starters as they usually need a race before firing their best shots Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty who has the look of a future star who could be a late-season 3-year-old stakes winner
Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga
We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints Thatrsquos not splitting the atom or unearthing something new But what about some of those under-the-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa
Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with but hersquos going to pop on the turf at about $30 like he does every year Tony Dutrow will start limited horses but his percentage will be high and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win Tom Morley doesnrsquot have a national following yet but does very good work with limited stock especially in the New York-bred ranks Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont but was a bit slow into stride this summer so expect him to have a big Saratoga
Chad Brown is not under-the-radar but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga
34
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
This year perhaps even more so
A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet That tells me that hersquos going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that itrsquos quite possible hersquos been holding a few horses back for the Spa Brown has hummed right along at 31 at Belmont but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year While 31 at Saratoga isnrsquot likely I give him a huge chance at the trainerrsquos title Pletcher and all
The Wagering Side mdash What to Play
You didnrsquot think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice did you Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck
While it all depends on the size of your bankroll Irsquoll be taking a long hard look at the Pick 5
this year as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga At a $050 base play it gives the little guy a chance and the pool size should be very healthy Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k-200k and I donrsquot think itrsquos out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range
To me the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing and at Saratoga the
pools will be enormous (Saturdayrsquos are guaranteed at $500k) so it gets magnified that much more Again at just the $050 increment the little guy has more than a fighting chance But handicappers still make a few errors
when approaching this bet ndash none more so than the size of their play
Far too many think that because you can play for just $050 you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos Occasionally I fall victim myself But we need to be honest
35
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
with ourselves and handicap the overall sequence and then decide ―Does this warrant a big play or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times
Donrsquot fall into the boxcar trap and look for something thatrsquos not there There are days when $96 is warranted but they arenrsquot as prevalent as you might think For me Irsquom much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open Yoursquoll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1400 attempts
Tab the Tote
While Irsquom extremely hesitant to take ―tips at the track or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit especially in the 2-year-old races
The pools are big enough that wagering action matters Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often so itrsquos
important to take note of who is taking money and who isnrsquot
But again you need to know your circuit You shouldnrsquot care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5 Why Because they all open at 7-5 Instead you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006) so tote action on one of his would be a big deal
Conversely if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel you should also take notice While itrsquos not the end-all Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1 While these are not hard and fast rules Irsquoll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and Irsquoll do it with confidence If they beat me then Irsquoll simply golf clap and move on understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition
Yes Saratoga is upon us but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths Your bottom line will benefit from it
BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT
36
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Saratoga by the Numbers
One type of race that is unique to
Saratoga in terms of peoplersquos zest
for handicapping the Spa versus
other tracks is two-year-old maiden
races
For some the conventional wisdom
might be to dismiss
runners from high-
profile connections
as overbet but the
good trainers and
jockeys end up with the good
horses and actually win more than
the odds suggest they should
Of course because of takeout the
ROI on any one angle even a
winning one from an expectation
standpoint isnrsquot necessarily
positive
And so it goes with the looking at
trainer and first-time pedigree in
two-year-old maiden races
sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga
Both help point to winners but
neither shows a flat-bet profit
The top-ranked trainer for two-
year-old races has an impact value
of 183 with an ROI of -3
Debut pedigree info is good for a
12 Impact Value but the hot sires
get overbet as the ROI is -22
Pedigree shines brighter in two-
year-old maiden grass races with
an impact value on turf breeding of
362 and an ROI of +725 The
top debut pedigree rating is similar
to dirt at 127 but the
ROI is a friendlier -
25
So how do you use this
information to your
advantage
I wouldnrsquot be looking to make any
prime win bets in a two-year-old
race without some trusted morning
info as well but not everyone has
access to that (or wants to pay for
it)
However these stats can point you
in the right direction of logical
contenders as well as potential
longshots to use in multi-race
wagers or underneath in exotics
based on pedigree
37
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Now letrsquos look at some
more general trends last
year at Saratoga As
wersquove seen track to track
throughout the year the
best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating and the
top Prime Power horse
are gangbuster in non-
maiden dirt sprints
Betting the best last-out
Brisnetcom Speed Rating in dirt
sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would
have resulted in a +85 ROI and
doing the same with Prime Power
was +1
Dirt routes are not nearly as
powerful The Impact Value for
both is still above 1 but the ROI
for each category is -30
Turf sprints favor early speed with
the top EP pace rated horses
winning twice as often as their
odds suggested they would with a
flat bet ROI of +40 The best
last-out Speed Rating also did well
with a 220 Impact Value and -1
ROI A horse with early foot and
good recent form is a must use
sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
The Spa gets its share of rain and
just as two-year-old handicapping
needs to be a part of your arsenal
when attacking Saratoga so too
does off-track handicapping and
no surprise that speed kills there as
well
The best last-out Brisnetcom
Speed Rating in off-track non-
maiden sprints last year at
Saratoga had an Impact Value of
254 with a 315 ROI
ndash Ed DeRosa
38
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
39
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
2-YEAR-OLD
HANDICAPPING
By Jerry Shottenkirk
andicapping 2-year-olds is a
great challenge for horse-
players mainly due to such
a lack of history
No division presents a wider array
of horses At no point will there be
such a difference between the best
and the worst When horses get
older they‟ve long-established
what kind of class they have or
don‟t have You don‟t have that
luxury when you play 2-year-olds
Everyone has his or her own rules
when it comes to the juveniles
The following are some of mine
that can help you in baby races
The Tote
Avoid first-time starters that are
heavy favorites in straight plays If
you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 1-
9 shot at Belmont move along
unless you use in multi-race (or
horizontal) plays Chances are a
horse like this can run It‟s
probably regally bred handled by a
Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost
several hundred-thousand dollars
at auction But it‟s not worth the
risk It‟s a great sport but it‟s
gambling and that‟s not taking a
good gamble
There are 2-year-olds
and then there are 2-year-old
first-time starters
In a few starts a 2-year-old can
give somewhat of an indication of a
talent level Many start in maiden
special weights races ndash the high
end of the maiden ranks If they
H
40
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
win they move on to face winners
And if they run well but don‟t win
they likely return to similar MSW
conditions Those that are clearly
outrun are dropped to the maiden-
claiming ranks A drop
from maiden special
weights to maiden
claiming is one of the
most significant class
drops in racing
Seeking a Clear Path
An inside post is generally an
enemy to a 2-year-old Some can
overcome but many don‟t get their
best run early on when near the
rail If they are a little tardy at the
start it‟s difficult to make up
ground especially when the field
ahead moves over to save ground
So many times an inside-drawn 2-
year-old is steadied or checked
The young ones aren‟t used to that
and instead of a slight steady
most of the time they wind up
slamming on the brakes Unless a
juvenile is a potential superstar it‟s
difficult to overcome such an
event especially at the shorter
distances Pure and simple they
don‟t recover
I‟d much rather go with a far
outside post than a rail post when
it comes to handicapping 2-year-
olds When weighing the prospect
of losing ground vs losing
momentum I‟ll take
losing ground every
time Even a horse
from the 11 or 12 post
has a good chance at
an unabated run
Generally they weed
themselves out by the
time they reach the turn
This of course depends mainly on
the distance of the race
It‟s not as easy to overcome a far
outside post when the race begins
close to the turn In 5 frac12 or 6-
furlong races over most mile ovals
it‟s possible to get a good and
steady run at it
Itrsquos Not a Real Race Itrsquos P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e
I don‟t put a great deal of stock in
workouts prior to a first start
unless they stand out If a 2-year-
old is breezing 46 seconds for a
half-mile you‟re probably looking
at a horse with some talent
A drop from maiden
special weights to
maiden claiming
is one of the most
significant class
drops in racing
41
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
A steady work pattern over a
couple of months generally gets a
horse ready for its first start
Usually only a few of those works
are from the gate Horses get
approved from the gate by the
track‟s starter and maybe have a
couple of other workouts from the
gate Too many gate works should
put up a red flag If a
horse has five or six
gate workouts it‟s
usually a sign of a
problem leaving there
Works have more
weight to them when
the races become
longer There doesn‟t
have to be a long list
of impressive works when a horse
is running a little more than a half-
mile Not many 2-year-olds wait
until the two-turn races pop up
later in the season However 6- or
7-furlong races are on the schedule
a few months after the initial 2-
year-old races are carded and
works become more important
Class Arrives Later
The juveniles that have revved up
for 4 12-furlong races generally
aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the
classics (There is an important
exception you will read below)
Races of 5 12 6 or 7 furlongs are
the more likely spots for first-time
starters that will wind up in the
more significant distance races as
3-year-olds
However that‟s not to
bad-mouth the more
impressive short
sprinters
Trainer Wesley Ward
(pictured next page)
doesn‟t have horses in
the classic 3-year-old
races annually but he
wins a tremendous
amount of short sprints and many
of those are classy 2-year-olds
Some of those even win across the
pond when they are sent to Royal
Ascot So you don‟t have to run
long to be bdquoclassy‟ And remember
there are a lot more sprints than
long-distance races for the older
horses not to mention the 2-year-
olds
In most cases mid- to late-
summer debuts are more common
Too many gate works
should put up a red
flag If a horse has
six workouts and
five or six of those
are from the gate itrsquos
usually a sign of a
problem leaving
there
42
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
and the horses that already have
sights on the classics usually run
longer
Now the exception to the rule hellip
Itrsquos Chromie
There have been examples of
horses running short and early that
have developed into long-distance
classic standouts We only have to
look at California Chrome
Sure he won the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness and was fourth in
his bid to finish off a Triple Crown
in the Belmont But when it all
started there probably weren‟t
high hopes as far as the classics
It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s
connections thought he might be a
decent California-bred sprinter
Chromie began like many run-of-
the-mill 2-year-olds It took him a
few months to prove he wasn‟t run
of the mill
He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he
made his April debut at Hollywood
Park going 4 12 furlongs He ran
2nd to Time for a Hug and paid
$740 and $4 to place and show
Remember those payoffs
California Chrome came back a
month later at BHP and won by 2
34 lengths at the same distance
He was 6-to-5 this time
Chromie ran in some decent
California-bred races and put it all
together at Del Mar when he won
the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by
nearly three He was 6-to-1
We know what happened when he
began to run longer distances
43
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
He won the Santa Anita Derby at
3-to-5 the Kentucky Derby at 5-to-
2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2
A horse who paid $3 to win the
Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his
career debut going 4 12 furlongs
against California-breds Chromie
really is the exception But he is
proof that those who run early in
the year can be around later
Again that is not the rule
When Does Breeding Help
Naturally pedigree is more
important in the longer races
When 2-year-olds are going 4 12
furlongs in their first start we
probably shouldn‟t key on the
pedigree as much ndash other than to
see if the sire andor dam have a
propensity for ldquowin-earlyrdquo babies
Pedigree certainly carries more
importance at the longer distances
Also pedigree means much more
at the larger tracks than at the
smaller tracks If a 2-year-old sired
by an upper-echelon sire makes a
start at a mid-level or smaller
track chances are there‟s a good
reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana
Downs or Mountaineer instead of
Santa Anita or Saratoga
For 2-year-old racing information
BRIS past performances provide
good in-race statistics not just on
pedigree but on connections and
how they do with young horses
Some trainers are better with the
juveniles and most of the time
the stats don‟t lie For overall sire
lists there are several sources
Google ldquotop sires for 2014rdquo and
you will land in a good spot
Betting 2-year-olds can be quite
challenging But few races provide
you more of a sense of pride when
you are correct It means you
considered all the factors and came
up with a good runner
And it‟s also important to
remember that the very first career
start isn‟t all-telling There‟s a
particular chestnut colt on the
West Coast that‟s proof of that
-HPN
JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS
OAKLAWN REMINGTON amp
WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT DAILY
44
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
This monthrsquos topic of review
2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES
Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons
The subject of handicapping 2-year-old ldquobabyrdquo races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class maidens pedigrees workouts and direct discussions
In 2012 (link) we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton whose father Richard long has been one of the Midwestrsquos top trainers of 2YOs
Here are some of the highlights
Jill Byrne With the 2-year-olds it is a lot about giving
them confidence in the crazy new
45
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
surroundings at the track it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track
Jill Byrne Itrsquos important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden
racesall trainers want to win first time out but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first startthey leave nothing left in the tank
Jill Byrne I look at pedigrees workout patterns trainer patterns etc but
then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boysgirls
Scott Hazelton (My father Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would
be related in the same bloodlines so he really got to know the family of each runner
Scott Hazelton hellip getting Lasix in a horsersquos second start is big for
me too Toteboard watching is a big thing especially paying attention
to the will-pays
CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR amp JEREMY PLONKrsquoS TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING amp MAIDENS
46
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET
CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program
JULY 1 PACE
HANDICAPPING
Play the races in real-time with us as we
spotlight race shapes and pace scenarios
throughout the night
JULY 8 NUMBERSSTATS
FOCUS
We attack the live racing action with you in real-time looking at the key numbers and
stats in the PPs
JULY 15 HANDICAPPING
ANGLES
Night School experts share their favorite
angles mixed in with the live racing action
JULY 22 MARKING PAST PERFORMANCES
Get an actual set of our prosrsquo marked PPs for the live racing card and see all the marks
and ask lsquowhyrsquo
JULY 29 PEDIGREE
HANDICAPPING
We delve into an actual race card and offer pedigree hints stats and angles of note based on genes
47
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
By Brian W Spencer
As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars
The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August and it
never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1-quality racing The days headliner the Arlington Million is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day
While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has
48
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
always been a favorite day of mine each racing year Million Preview Day offers three main stakes that pair up with Million Day events and the top three finishers in each event get their starting fees waived on Million Day Older horses aiming for the Million can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap fillies and mares with eyes on the Beverly D can test the trip in the Grade 3 Modesty and sophomores looking for Secretariat glory can use the Grade 3 American Derby as a stepping stone
Million Preview Day consistently offers an excellent betting card with competitive races and in fondly recalling many past Preview Days I decided to do some digging to see what kinds of trends I could find over the past 10 years that potentially could be put to good use on July 12 in attacking these races at the windows Heres what I found
- Ignore the Local Preppers Horses in Preview Day races that made their most recent start at Arlington have a woeful 4-for-81 record in those three races combined over the last decade
They have accounted for 32 of all starters in Preview Day events but have produced just 13 of the winners The Modesty is the one place where this rule holds less true as those using local preps have accounted for three of the last 10 winners
- Dont Bank On Big Form Reversals Preview Day is not where a horse goes
to change his or her summer fortunes ndash only two horses have won in the last 30 Preview Day events after running worse than fourth in their most recent starts (Cosmonaut in the 2006 Arlington Handicap off a ninth-place finish and Infinite Magic in the 2013 American Derby out of
a sixth-place finish) While seven horses have done so off winning efforts the real winners are in-form horses who are knocking on the door 21 of the last 30 winners of these events have finished either second third or fourth in their prior start
- Toss the Arlington Classic Winner The Arlington Classic is the first leg of the Mid-American Triple that concludes with the American Derby
JULY 12
ARLINGTON PARK
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
G3 Arlington Handicap
G3 Modesty
G3 American Derby
49
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
and the Secretariat and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg They have compiled a 1-for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5 1-1 6-5 and 8-5 Willcox Inns 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception This years Arlington Classic winner The 3-year old filly Istanford
- The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort fourth at 7-5 in 2006) and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $846 compared
to $1084 for the Modesty and $1398 for the American Derby When the favorite doesnt win it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $1420
- Did Bill Mott Send Anything If he did especially if its in the American Derby pay attention Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007 He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots he has
50
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
produced a huge $782 Preview Day ROI
$$$
Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August
The short answer Not much
In the actual prep-for-future-success conversation Preview Day has not produced many winners or serious players on the bigger stage a month later This is not exactly a surprising revelation as many barns hold out their very best players for the more lucrative August races and the European invasion is almost always planned for August not July
Gun Salute trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later Three also-rans from
Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D after finishing third in the Modesty Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a second-place finish in the Modesty and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby
Those four runners are the obvious exceptions as in total 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company
After all of my digging the best handicapping advice seems to be to enjoy
Million Preview Day and its interesting wagering opportunities on July 12 After applauding the winners its best to forget about them as fast as you can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day
GET BRIANrsquoS ARLINGTON
HORSES TO WATCH EACH
RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW
BUZZ REPORT
MILLION PREVIEW DAY
AVG $2 WINNING PAYS
Arlington Handicap $846
Modesty $1084
American Derby $1398
Last 10 Years
51
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
52
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
By Ken Warkentin
Hambletonian Time ndash The Takter Factor Kicks In
The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian
Itrsquos a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation sheer talent expert yearling selection state of the art operation meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics
With his proven formula for success Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingrsquos top trainers His stable had another fabulous season
in 2013 and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014
In 2012 Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season
This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the
53
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list Father Patrick Trixton and Nuncio
Father Patrick was Takterrsquos 2013 freshman standout who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1541 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win and Takter declared him ldquothe horse hersquos always been waiting for whorsquos really really specialrdquo
By what wersquove seen so far in 2014 the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his top- ranked stablemate This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1512 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9 He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16 then equaled the stakes
record of 1521 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike Takter called Trixton ldquoa perfect ten in every categoryrdquo Trixton was the second-highest priced yearling of 2012 at $360000 Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive
Nuncio the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year was sent to Takter this season and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May Six-time Hambo- winning driver John
Campbell noted ldquoJimmyrsquos got him settled down and hersquos got so much trot when hersquos relaxedrdquo
Takterrsquos filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1533 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown and Pierce declared her by far the best two-year-old filly hersquos ever driven Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman
54
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
season going past $800000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1534 Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014
In 2013 the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million Guccio the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up lowered his mark to 1511 and attained millionaire status Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014 Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1503 at Pocono Downs won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1523 track record at Hoosier Park The son of Cantab Hall who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian has returned as a five-year-old
Last year Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists Corky High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit and finished third in the final with
Corky Corky also won the Earl Beal Jr Memorial at Pocono Downs Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1533
Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace Takter had his second straight Crown triple In doing so Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies
Nicknamed ldquoTrotting Masterrdquo Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago producing a steady stream of champions
In 1997 the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media You can call Jimmy anytime and hersquos always got time for you to talk horses
Brace yourself the Takter Factor has kicked in again
ndash HPN
55
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
56
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success
By Martha Claussen
Without a doubt the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and depending on their closing kick still be able to run down his rivals for the victory In Quarter Horse racing a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board
So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses poised focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line
Not all Quarter Horses get it right off the bat so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions
57
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Each track employs a starter who assembles a 10-12 man crew They play a pivotal but highly underrated role in horse racing
Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling
It all starts from day one when a horse is born explains Stutes Ive been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies The more hands-on the better Two-year-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble They feel forced and it makes our job tough
Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994 Especially Tres who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $24 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing Horseplayernowcom Top 10 Poll
A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the
starting gate From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space to seeing horses to either side of them to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded each step has its challenges
Basically you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet explains Stutes When they are nervous tensed up theyll hop in the air and thats not going to result in a good start
Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes but also backing them out of the gate and reloading In racing and often in finals for futurities a horse becomes fractious and the field has to be backed out so that the
58
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
gate crew can attend to the distressed runner
Backing them out always settles them down Stutes explains
Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below) the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs
This colt has no fear of anything maintains Stutes Hes a big rangy horse with amazing focus
Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs and like Stutes
has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success
He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones Mike Joiner Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training However McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring many of who have never seen a starting gate
The first thing we do is walk them through walk them back close the gate and then walk them out said McReynolds
Some catch on right away others take 10 -12 times McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen as even with a great
break in a futurity trial good runners dont qualify
Two days of trials for the $26 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August Each 2-year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire All
59
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing
With two decades under his belt McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking Quarter Horse he has ever seen See Me Doit (winner of 17 races for the late Blane Schvaneveldt)
he said He knew exactly what his job was Always stood like a statue and when the gates opened he just said goodbye
McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino Separatist and First Down Dash but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny
Its a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing states McReynolds
As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping there is no single factor such as a speed index pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner However one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the
money
If the reason for the poor outcome was trouble at the starting gate give that runner a chance in his
next out With subsequent morning gate training the Quarter Horses performance will likely improve in future races and the payout as well
Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas Louisiana and other regions in North America
Click to watch video
60
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
61
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Horse Player NOW
takes you inside the past
performances ndash the GPS of
nearly every player ndash and
dissects a specific race for
what to look for within the
lines ndash and between them
We continue this month in the claiming ranks
as we advance up the class ladder This time
itrsquos ldquoconditioned claimersrdquo in the spotlight The
term ldquoconditionedrdquo has nothing to do with a
horsersquos fitness in this sense but rather the
qualifications and limits placed on participation
in different types of races The conditions could
be for age (3-year-olds) sex (fillies and mares)
andor accomplishment (have not won a race
this year) The idea is to bring together horses
of similar talents in order to make for the most
competitive betting races for the public
Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop
(total horses bred and born for racing) we
have seen a change in recent years in how
conditioned claiming races are written by the
trackrsquos racing secretary What used to be a
straight-forward race for one particular
condition (horses who have not win a race in 6
months) has now morphed into multiple
conditions for qualifying In theory ndash though
debatable ndash this tactic is supposed to increase
field size by making more horses eligible to
compete But in many cases it can be argued
that it has allowed horsemen to become even
more selective and picky in their spots to race
Many now wait around for the just the ideal
perfect spot ndash and thus neither field size nor
competitiveness has been addressed positively
PPs courtesy BRIS chart LINK courtesy
Equibase
62
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
63
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
64
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
65
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
66
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
Point Given Photos By Z
JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel) fm 6F Betrando (LA) 3ampup 85F Blairrsquos Cove (Cby) 3ampup 85F Princess Elaine (Cby) fm) 85F
4 Forbidden Apple (Bel) 3ampup 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel) fm 8F-T Elkwood (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln) 3ampup 6F American Flag (LA) 3ampup 85F Frances Genter (Cby) 3yo f 6F Victor Myers (Cby) 3yo 6F
5 Belmont Oaks (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel) 3yo 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel) 3ampup 7F Dwyer (Bel) 3yo 85F Suburban (Bel) 4ampup 10F
Los Al Derby (LA) 3yo 9F Delaware Oaks (Del) 3yo f 85F Robert Dick (Del) fm 11F-T Handford (Del) 3ampup 1m70y Oh Say (Del) 3yo 6F Achievement (WO) 3yo 6F Long Branch (Mth) 3yo 85F Ellis Park Turf (Elp) fm 85F-T Gonzalez (Pln) 2yo f 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo 55F Shine Young Fut (Evd) 2yo f 55F Jetta Be Right (FL) fm 85F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn) 3yo 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm) 2yo 55F
6 Queenrsquos Plate (WO) 3yo 10F Dance Smartly (WO) fm 9F-T Highlander (WO) 3ampup 6F-T Singspiel (WO) 3ampup 12F-T United Nations (Mth) 3ampup 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth) 3ampup 8F Lynbrook (Bel) 2yo 6F Cypress (LA) fm 85F Boeing (Emd) fm 8F Nevin (Pln) 2yo 55F IA Stallion (Prm) 3yo 1m70y
8 Dr James Penney (Prx) fm 85FT
9 Christiana (Del) 3yo f 8F-TT Ellenrsquos Lucky Star (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Snack (Ind) 3yo 8F-T
67
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
10 Nick Shuk (Del) 3yo 75F-T
12 Delaware Hcp (Del) fm 10F Fort Delaware (Del) 4ampup 6F Cape Henlopen (Del) 3ampup 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del) fm 6F Arlington Hcp (AP) 3ampup 10F-T American Derby (AP) 3yo 95F-T Modesty (AP) fm 9F-T Stars and Stripes 3ampup 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee 3yo 7F Bowling Green (Bel) 4ampup 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx) 3ampup 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby) fm 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby) 3ampup 8F-T New York Derby (FL) 3yo 85F New York Oaks (FL) 3yo f 85F Great Lady M (LA) fm 65F Claredon (WO) 2yo 55F Lamplighter (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Assault (LS) 3ampup 8F Valor Farm (LS) fm 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS) 2yo f 5F Last Dance (Suf) 3ampup 1m70y
13 Bison City (WO) 3yo f 85F Shady Well (WO) 2yo f 55F Cinderella (LA) 2yo f 6F Willard Proctor (LA) 2yo 6F Rockville Centre (Bel) 2yo 6F Colorado Derby (Arp) 3yo 85F CTBA Futurity (Arp) 2yo 6F
Cincinnatian (Blt) 3yo f 85F Hoover (Blt) 2yo 55F Seattle Slew (Emd) 3yo 85F Klassy Briefcase (Mth) fm 55F-T Leemat (PID) 3ampup 8F Northern Fling (PID) fm 8F
17 Oceanside (Dmr) 3yo 8F-T
18 Schuylerville (Sar) 2yo f 6F Sir Cat (Sar) 3yo 8F CTBA (Dmr) 2yo f 55F
19 Diana (Sar) fm 9F-T Sanford (Sar) 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr) 3yo f 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr) fm 85F-T Arlington Oaks (AP) 3yo f 9F Nijinsky (WO) 3ampup 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO) 3yo f 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn) 3yo 85F George Lewis (Tdn) 3ampup 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp) 3ampup 65F Desert Vixen (Mth) 3yo f 85F-T Count Lathum (Mth) 3yo 85F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm) 2yo 55F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm) 2yo f 55F Governorrsquos Hcp (Sac) fm 85F
-more-
68
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
20 CCA Oaks (Sar) 3yo f 9F Lucky Coin (Sar) 4ampup 55F-T Eddie Read (Dmr) 3ampup 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO) 3yo 9F Duchess (WO) 3yo f 7F Miss Woodford (Mth) 3yo f 6F Emerald Express (Emd) 2yo 6F Mt Rainier (Emd) 3ampup 85F Columbine (Arp) fm 85F
21 Shine Again (Sar) fm 7F
23 Lake George (Sar) 3yo f 85F-T Wickerr (Dmr) 3ampup 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO) 3yo 7F Indiana Grand (Ind) 3yo f 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind) fm 85F-T
24 Quick Call (Sar) 3yo 55F-T
25 Cougar II (Dmr) 3ampup 12F Curlin (Sar) 3yo 9F
26 Jim Dandy (Sar) 3yo 9F Amsterdam (Sar) 3yo 65F Ontario Matron (WO) fm 85F Colin (WO) 2yo 6F San Diego (Dmr) 3ampup 85F Fleet Treat (Dmr) 3yo f 7F Regret (Mth) fm 6F
Prm Hcp (Prm) 3ampup 85F Cammack (AP) 3ampup 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui) 3yo f 55F Senorita Fut (Rui) 2yo f 55F First Episode (Suf) fm 1m70y
27 Haskell (Mth) 3yo 9F Oceanport (Mth) 3ampup 85F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth) 3ampup 85 Molly Pitcher (Mth) fm 85F Matchmaker (Mth) fm 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth) 3ampup 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr) 3ampup 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr) 3ampup 85F-T Shuvee (Sar) fm 9F Royal North (WO) fm 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt) 3yo f 9F Angie C (Emd) 2yo f 6F NM-bred Day (Rui) 5 stakes
28 Honorable Miss (Sar) fm 6F
29 Prince of Wales (FE) 3yo 95F Rainbow Connection (FE) fm 5F
30 Graduation (Dmr) 2yo 55F Coronation Cup (Sar) 3yo f 55F-T Victoriana (WO) fm 85F
31 Evan Shipman (Sar) 3ampup 9F
69
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
July 3 ndash Ellis Park meet opens July 3 ndash Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 ndash TV NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 ndash Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queenrsquos Plate Day July 6 ndash Calder meet ends July 6 ndash TV FS1 United Nations July 8 ndash Online Night School July 9 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 10 ndash Sacramento meet opens July 12 ndash Lone Star meet ends July 15 ndash Online Night School July 16 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 17 ndash Del Mar meet opens July 18 ndash Saratoga meet opens July 20 ndash TV FS1 CCA OaksRead
July 21 ndash Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 23 ndash Online Woodbine chat July 27 ndash TV NBC Haskell July 29 ndash Online Night SchoolJuly 30 ndash Online Woodbine chat Aug 1 ndash Aug HPN Mag release
Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar Katie Gensler Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley
Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6
PLAY WITH OUR PROS
70
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL Only Bob Baffertrsquos duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd the exception was Big Brown who exited his only career loss
MOST RECENT RENEWAL Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race theyrsquove owned
CLICK FOR FREE PICKS
HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Verrazano T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo12 Paynter B Baffert R Bejarano rsquo11 Coil B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky B Baffert M Garcia
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra S Asmussen C Borel rsquo08 Big Brown R Dutrow K Desormeaux
rsquo07 Any Given Saturday T Pletcher G Gomez rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat T Pletcher J Velazquez
rsquo05 Roman Ruler B Baffert J Bailey
rsquo04 Lion Heart P Biancone J Bravo
Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Verrazano 1st Pegasus (Mth) rsquo12 Paynter 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel)
rsquo11 Coil 2nd Swaps (Hol) rsquo10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Preakness (Pim)
rsquo09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Mother Goose (Bel)
rsquo08 Big Brown DNF Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo07 Any Given Saturday 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo06 Bluegrass Cat 2nd Belmont Stakes (Bel) rsquo05 Roman Ruler 1st Dwyer (Bel)
rsquo04 Lion Heart 1st Long Branch (Mth)
HASKELL INVITATIONAL
July 26 2014
JULY RACE OF THE MONTH
Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandrarsquos footsteps
71
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
Bad information can be found everywhere Itrsquos the good stuff thatrsquos tougher to locate and discern Just because the source of information may seem credible it doesnrsquot mean accuracy can be assumed In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes California Chromersquos training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated and easily repudiated Art said California Chromersquos nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak when in fact the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat That wasnrsquot even close to correct and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts Yet it was repeated many places because from where it came
The point is not to pick on the Shermans but to illustrate just how far off ldquofactsrdquo can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases but their ability to have a sense of the big picture or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race is not part of the job description Sure they may know their horse is about to run a corker or might be a race off of their best efforts Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order ndash because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs theyrsquore wrapping
72
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
73
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74
SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS
GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK
74