How will Transit Fare in the Next How will Transit Fare in the Next AuthorizationAuthorization

AASHTO Executive DirectorJohn Horsley

2008 State Public Transportation Partnership Conference

Providence, Rhode IslandAugust 6, 2008

National Transportation Visions National Transportation Visions Over the Last CenturyOver the Last Century

19151915 Get Farmers Out of the MudGet Farmers Out of the Mud

19561956 Coast to Coast Without a Coast to Coast Without a StoplightStoplight

19911991 ISTEA: Safe and IntermodalISTEA: Safe and Intermodal

2008 and 2008 and BeyondBeyond

New Strategy Which Goes New Strategy Which Goes Beyond What Has Been Done Beyond What Has Been Done BeforeBefore

Transportation Vision Summit, Transportation Vision Summit, Maryland, May, 2007Maryland, May, 2007

A multi-modal A multi-modal approach is needed approach is needed which:which:• Preserves what has Preserves what has

been built to datebeen built to date• Improves system Improves system

performanceperformance• Adds substantial Adds substantial

capacity in capacity in highways, transit, highways, transit, and railand rail

Penobscot Narrows Bridge, ME

New Dynamics Require New Dynamics Require New SolutionsNew Solutions

Improvements NeededImprovements Needed Intercity passenger rail in mega-Intercity passenger rail in mega-

regionsregions Double transit ridership by 2030Double transit ridership by 2030 Major Increase for Rural TransitMajor Increase for Rural Transit Fix bottlenecks, transit and highway Fix bottlenecks, transit and highway

capacity, HOT lanes and dedicated capacity, HOT lanes and dedicated truck lanestruck lanes

New Dynamics Require New New Dynamics Require New Solutions: Global Climate ChangeSolutions: Global Climate Change

Double the fuel efficiency of the light Double the fuel efficiency of the light duty automotive fleet by 2020 duty automotive fleet by 2020

Cut the rate of growth in VMT by Cut the rate of growth in VMT by 50%, increase it from 3 trillion today 50%, increase it from 3 trillion today to 5 trillion, instead of 7 trillion by to 5 trillion, instead of 7 trillion by 2055.2055.

Increase percent who ride transit, Increase percent who ride transit, walk, bike, and work at homewalk, bike, and work at home

The Crisis The Crisis In Highway and Transit FundingIn Highway and Transit Funding

Shortfall in Highway Trust Fund could Shortfall in Highway Trust Fund could reduce federal aid/raid transit reservesreduce federal aid/raid transit reserves

Skyrocketing highway construction and Skyrocketing highway construction and transit operating coststransit operating costs

Golden Gate Bridge, CA

$20.9

$35.2 $36.0 $36.9$37.7 $38.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$13.5 Billion Cut in Federal Highway Program Reduced Highway Program Levels Beyond 2009$

Bil

lio

ns

$10.4

$5.8 $5.9 $6.1 $6.2 $6.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$13.5 Billion Cut in Federal Highway Program Reduced Transit Program Levels Beyond 2009

$ B

illio

ns

National Surface Transportation National Surface Transportation Commission Report Got the Big Ideas RightCommission Report Got the Big Ideas Right

The need for “fundamental reform of The need for “fundamental reform of the Federal Transportation Program”the Federal Transportation Program”

Significant additional investmentSignificant additional investment Strong federal roleStrong federal role Shared funding responsibility by Shared funding responsibility by

federal, state and local governmentsfederal, state and local governments Need for a multi-modal approachNeed for a multi-modal approach

Federal Funding Increase RequiredFederal Funding Increase Required

20102010 20152015 FundingFunding Increase Increase Needed Needed

HiwayHiway $43.0 $43.0 billionbillion

$75.0 $75.0 billionbillion $32 $32 billionbillion

TransitTransit $10.5 $10.5 billionbillion

$18.5 $18.5 billionbillion $ 8 $ 8 billionbillion

TotalTotal $53.5 $53.5 billionbillion

$93.5 $93.5 billionbillion $40 $40 billionbillion

National Transportation Capital Investment

How to achieve $500 billion funding How to achieve $500 billion funding level in next authorization? level in next authorization?

Highway Trust Fund Revenue:Highway Trust Fund Revenue: $250 billion$250 billion General Fund Support for TransitGeneral Fund Support for Transit $ 20 billion$ 20 billion Tax Credit Bonds Tax Credit Bonds $ 50 billion$ 50 billion New Highway Trust Fund Revenue from New Highway Trust Fund Revenue from

highway use fees, oil excess profits highway use fees, oil excess profits taxes, or fuel tax hikestaxes, or fuel tax hikes $ 100 billion$ 100 billion

Cap and trade revenues for $ 55 billion Cap and trade revenues for $ 55 billion transit, land use, ITStransit, land use, ITS

Critical Commerce CorridorsCritical Commerce Corridors $ 25 billion$ 25 billion Total HIGHWAYS AND TRANSITTotal HIGHWAYS AND TRANSIT $500 billion$500 billion

Challenges which will make this bill Challenges which will make this bill the toughest challenge ever.the toughest challenge ever.

Gas prices at over $4 per gallonGas prices at over $4 per gallon Insolvent Highway Trust Fund Insolvent Highway Trust Fund New Administration which takes New Administration which takes

office eight months before bill office eight months before bill expiresexpires

States facing financial crisis because States facing financial crisis because of troubled economyof troubled economy

Requirements for SuccessRequirements for Success

Financial Crisis of dramatic reductions in highway and transit Financial Crisis of dramatic reductions in highway and transit funding may cause Congress to pass bill needed funding may cause Congress to pass bill needed

States need to communicate that we are delivering value to States need to communicate that we are delivering value to the taxpayers with the dollars we have been given over last the taxpayers with the dollars we have been given over last ten years.ten years.

We need to describe a reform bill which will deliver needed We need to describe a reform bill which will deliver needed improvements and accountability for results improvements and accountability for results

Thank YouThank You

http://www.transportation.orghttp://www.transportation.org

John HorsleyJohn Horsley

Executive DirectorExecutive Director

AASHTOAASHTO