How to Trade AUD, NZD, CAD, and CHF - BK Forex€¦ · 06/02/2013 · Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. ... Particularly Sensitive

How to Trade AUD, NZD,

CAD, and CHF

Kathy Lien & Boris Schlossberg

www.bkforexadvisors.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all

investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged

products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists

that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you

cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an

independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on bkforex.com should not be relied upon as a substitute

for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. BKForex LLC and

bkforex.com are merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not

take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain

advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of

their trading to their personal risk appetite.

BKForex LLC will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any

information contained on BKForex LLC. BKForex LLC do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional

advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be

sought.

Six Webinars: Feb 13 - March 6

Four Weeks. Six 1 Hour Lessons. Online.

- AND -

LIVE Seminar: 9 March 2013

Full Day. Live in Sydney.

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Webinar #1 Feb 13/14 - An Easy Guide to Understanding the Global

Economy - Macroeconomics 101

Webinar #2 Feb 18/19 - The Fundamentals that REALLY Move Markets

Webinar #3 Feb 20/21 - How to Predict Economic Data Better Than

Wall Street

Webinar #4 Feb 25/26 - Peek Over Our Shoulders - A Private Tour of

Our Trading Screens

Webinar #5 Feb 27/28- How to Trade the EUR, USD, GBP, JPY

Webinar #6 March 4/5- How to Trade the AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF

B

One Seminar: 9 March 2013

9am – 5pm

B

11 Jamison St Sydney NSW 2000, Australia

B

Agenda

Every Currency Pair is Unique,

Here is Why…

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as

well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The

possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to

lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any

doubts.

Australian Dollar





doubts.

Background • Symbol A$

• Nickname - Aussie

• AUD is 5th Most Actively Traded Currency

(7.6% of total daily turnover)

• AUD/USD is the 4th Most Actively Traded Currency Pair (6% of total

daily turnover)

• Highest Interest Rate of G20 Countries

• Export Dependent Economy





doubts.

Central Bank • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

• Mandate: Low and Stable Inflation (1 to 3% Target)

• Created: 1959

• Central Bank Governor: Glenn Stevens

• Frequency of Central Bank Meetings/Year: 11





doubts.

Economic Statistics

• 2011 GDP: AUD 1.507 trillion (1/10th Size of US)

World’s 13th Largest Economy

• Population: 22,015,576 (Less than California)

• Unemployment Rate* 4.9%

• Interest Rate 3.75%, Inflation 1.6% (Q1), Trade Balance** -1.59

Billion

• *As of May 2012

• **As of March 2012





doubts.

More Details ….

Most Important

Export Partners

• China (25.1%)

• Japan (18.9%)

• South Korea (8.9%)

• India (7.1%)

• USA (4%)

• *As of 2010

Main Industries

• Services: 70.4%

• Industry: 25.6%

• Agriculture: 4%

• As of 2011





doubts.

What Do They Sell?

• World’s #1 Exporter of Coal (35% of Intl Trade)

• Iron Ore Accounts for 20% of Total Exports

• Coal Accounts for 16% of Total Exports

Other main exports include:

• Gold, Crude Petroleum, Natural Gas





doubts.

Australia

1. Employment = Employment Change (Part Time vs. Full Time)

2. Retail Sales = Retail Sales

3. PMI = PMI Manufacturing & Services

4. Inflation = Quarterly Consumer & Producer Prices (CPI/PPI)

5. GDP = GDP

6. Trade = Trade Balance

7. Confidence = Westpac Consumer Confidence

8. Central Bank Meetings & Minutes = RBA Meeting, Minutes





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Most Active Trading Hours

• 7:00 PM ET / 23:00 GMT Tokyo Open

• 7:30 PM ET / 23:30 GMT AUD Economic Releases

• 8:30 AM ET / 12:30 GMT US Economic Releases





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AUD Trading Tips

Correlation with Commodity Prices

High Interest Rate, High Beta Currency

Particularly Sensitive to Chinese Data

Carry Trade Demand





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New Zealand Dollar





doubts.

Background • Symbol NZ$

• Nickname - Kiwi

• NZD is 10th Most Actively Traded Currency

(1.6% of total daily turnover, behind SEK and HKD)

• Typically the Second Highest Interest Rate of G20 Countries

• Export Dependent Economy





doubts.

Central Bank

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

• Mandate: Maintain Stability and Efficiency of Financial

System

• Created: 1934

• Central Bank Governor: Graeme Wheeler






doubts.

Economic Statistics

• 2011 GDP: NZD 135 billion

Fourth Smallest of the 30 OECD Countries

• Population: 4,432,017 (Half of NYC)

• Unemployment Rate 6.7% (Q1)

• Interest Rate 2.5%, Inflation 1.6% (Q1), Trade Balance* 134 Million

**As of March 2012





doubts.

More Details ….

Most Important

Export Partners

• Australia – 23.1%

• China – 11.2%

• USA – 8.6%

• Japan – 7.8%

• *As of 2010

Main Industries

• Services – 71.3%

• Industry – 24%

• Agriculture – 4.7%

• As of 2011





doubts.

What Does the Economy Rely On? • Dairy Products – 24.90%

• Meat – 11.59%

• Wood – 6.67%

• Oil – 4.64%

• Fruit – 3.51%

• Mechanical Machinery & Equipment – 3.79%

• Fish – 2.84%

• Aluminum – 2.59%

• Wine – 2.35%

• Electrical Machinery & Equipment – 2.30%

• *As of 2011





doubts.

New Zealand

1. Employment = Employment Change (Quarterly)

2. PMI = Business PMI and Performance of Services

3. Inflation = Quarterly Consumer & Producer Prices

4. GDP = GDP


6. Central Bank Meetings & Minutes = RBNZ Meeting





doubts.


• 7:00 PM ET / 23:00 GMT Tokyo Opens

• 7:30 PM ET / 23:30 GMT NZD Economic Releases






doubts.

NZD Trading Tips

Strong Correlation with AUD

Correlation with Commodity Prices

High Interest Rate, High Beta Currency

Carry Trade Demand





doubts.





doubts.





doubts.

Canadian Dollar





doubts.

Background • Symbol C$

• Nickname - Loonie

• CAD is 7th Most Actively Traded Currency


• USD/CAD is the 6th Most Actively Traded Currency Pair

(5% of total daily turnover)

• US Consumes 80% of Canadian Exports

• Ninth Largest Oil Exporter in the World





doubts.

Central Bank • Bank of Canada (BoC)

• Mandate: Price Stability – Keep Inflation Near 2%

• Created: 1934

• Central Bank Governor: Mark J. Carney






doubts.

Economy Statistics

• 2011 GDP: USD 1.75 Trillion

• Population* 34,108,752

• Unemployment Rate** 7.3%

• Interest Rate 1.00%

• Inflation*** 2.00%, Trade Balance**** 350M

*As of May 2012

• **As of April 2012

• ***As of April 2012

• ***As of March 2012





doubts.

More Details ….

Most Important

Export Partners

• USA - 74.9%

• UK - 4.1%

• *As of 2010

Main Industries

• Services – 71%

• Industry – 27.1%

• Agriculture – 1.9%

• As of 2011





doubts.

What Does the Economy Rely On?

• Industrial Goods and Materials – 25.09%

• Energy Products – 24.96%

• Machinery and Equipment – 17.47%

• Agricultural and Fishing Products – 8.96%

• *As of 2011





doubts.

Canada

1. Employment = Net Change in Employment (Part vs. Full Time)

2. Retail Sales = Retail Sales

3. PMI = IVEY PMI

4. Inflation = Consumer Prices (CPI)

5. GDP = GDP (Monthly and Quarterly)


7. Central Bank Meetings & Minutes = BoC Meeting





doubts.


• 7:00 AM ET / 11:00 GMT CAD Economic Releases






doubts.

CAD Trading Tips

USD/CAD Doesn’t Always Rise in Good US Data!

Reaction to US Fundamentals

Delayed Reaction to CAD Data

Correlation with Oil Prices

Risk Currency





doubts.





doubts.

Swiss Franc





doubts.

Background

• Symbol ₣

• Nickname - Swissie

• CHF is 6th Most Actively Traded Currency


• USD/CHF is 7th Most Actively Traded Currency

(4% of total daily turnover)

• Financial Services, Banking Industry

• Has One of the Highest Per Capita Incomes in the World

• Chemicals are Switzerland’s Main Exports





doubts.

Central Bank • Swiss National Bank (SNB)

• Mandate: Price Stability – Inflation Target of Less than 2%

• Created: 1907

• Central Bank Governor: Thomas Jordan






doubts.

Economic Statistics • 2011 GDP: $340.5 billion

• Population* 7,655,628

• Unemployment Rate** 3.1%

• Interest Rate 0.25% Target Range

• Inflation** -1.0%

• Trade Balance** CHF 24.16 Billion

*As of May 2012

** As of April 2012





doubts.

More Details ….

Most Important

Export Partners

• Germany – 19.2%

• U.S. – 10.2%

• Italy – 7.9%

• France – 7.7%

• U.K. – 5.9%

• *As of 2010

Main Industries

• Services – 71.3%

• Industry – 27.5%

• Agriculture – 1.2

As of 2011





doubts.

What Does the Economy Rely On?

• Chemicals – 37.8%

• Watches & Jewelry – 20.8%

• Machinery -18.7%

• Metals – 6.6%

• Agricultural products – 4.2%





doubts.

Switzerland

1. Central Bank Meetings & Minutes = Quarterly SNB Meeting

2. Inflation

3. Unemployment

4. UBS Consumption Index and KoF Leading Indicators

CHF Data Doesn’t Really Matter,

but these are the most important releases





doubts.


• 3:00AM ET / 8:00 GMT London Open

• 1:45AM ET / 6:45 GMT Swiss Economic

Releases

• 8:30AM ET/ 13:30 GMT US Economic Releases





doubts.

CHF Trading Tips

Swiss National Bank Prone to Intervention

Formerly a Safe Haven Currency (Could Resume?)

Does Nearly All its Trade with EZ





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Questions





doubts.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on bkforexadvisors.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. BKForex Advisors LLC and bkforexadvisors.com are merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite. BKForex Advisors LLC will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on BKForex Advisors LLC. BKForex Advisors LLC do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

Documents

How to Trade AUD, NZD, CAD, and CHF - BK Forex€¦ · 06/02/2013 · Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. ... Particularly Sensitive