How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025?

Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment

September 26, 2012Tampa, Florida

Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors

www.flbog.edu

Example: BOG 2012-2025 System Strategic Plan

2

Goal to produce 90,000 bachelor’s degrees by the year 2025,is about 7,000 more than the Historical Trend

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,00090,000

53,392

83,400

STRATEGIC PLAN GOAL HISTORICAL TREND

projectionsactual

www.flbog.edu

3 Key Definitions

Demand: How many degree holders does Florida’s economy need ?• Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree

attainment performance of the nation or of other states

• Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree attainment performance of other nations

• Establishing degree attainment goals based on economic/fiscal benefit

Supply: How many degree holders can Florida’s postsecondary system generate? • Historical growth trends

• Increasing the high school graduation rate

• Increasing the college continuation rate of high school graduates

• Increasing the continuation rate of A.A. graduates

• Increasing adult education

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Demand Methodologies

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Demand Methodology: Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree

attainment performance of the nation or of other states

5

Florida’s Educational AttainmentAdditional Degrees Needed Among 25-34 yr olds

Source: Board staff analysis of American Community Survey (ACS)– see link; and, EDR population estimates (Nov. 2011) for 25-34 year old age group – see link.

In 2010, Florida needed an additional 132,000 25-34 year olds with

bachelor’s and graduate degrees to meet the national and “BIG 10”

Benchmarks of 31%.

EDR projects Florida’s 2025 population of 25-34 year olds will only grow by

500,000 from the 2010 level.

If Florida increased its percentage to 31% by 2025, then half, or 287,000,

of Florida’s new 25-34 year olds would need a bachelor’s or graduate degree.

2010 2015 2020 20250

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

580,289

132,000 196,000 260,000 287,000

25-34yr Population with Bachelor's Degree or Higher in 2010 Additional 25-24yr Population with Bachelor's Degree or Higher Other 25-34yr Population without Bachelor's Degree or Higher

[See also Supporting Slides 2-7.]

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The U.S. College Attainment Gap Compared to the Most Educated OECD Countries

6

Source: SOURCE: OECD, Education at a Glance (2011), Appendix A: table A1.3a; available at:

http://www.oecd.org/education/highereducationandadultlearning/48630299.pdf

 

Demand Methodology: Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree

attainment performance of other nations

[See also Supporting Slide 8.]

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Source: BOG staff analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Real GDP in 2005 Chained dollars – see link; and 2010 Census population data from 2012 Statistical Abstract (table 16) – see link.

7

per capita GDP

StateQuintiles

2010 per capitaGDP

% of 25-64with Bachelor’s

and Higher (2010)

Top 10 $63,238 35%

11-20 $45,208 32%

21-30 $40,744 30%

31-40 $36,233 28%

41-51 $31,796 24%

USA $41,843 30%

Florida $34,983 27%

Educational Attainment Impact on State Economies

When broken into quintiles, a state’s Educational Attainment is strongly associatedwith its per capita Gross Domestic Product and per capita Net Earnings.

StateQuintiles

2011 per capitaNet Earnings

% of 25-64with Bachelor’s

and Higher (2010)

Top 10 $43,670 36%

11-20 $37,460 31%

21-30 $33,660 29%

31-40 $30,680 26%

41-51 $27,170 24%

USA $35,600 30%

Florida $27,500 27%

per capita Net Earnings

Demand Methodology: Establishing degree attainment goals based on economic/fiscal benefit

[See also Supporting Slides 9-10.]

www.flbog.edu

Counting Jobs by Education Level – The Effects of Overlap

8

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Tables 1.11 and 1.12– see link.

Less thanhigh school

High schoolDiploma

Some college,no degree

Postsecondary non-degree

award

Associate'sDegree

Bachelor'sDegree

Master'sDegree

DoctoralDegree

GrandTotal

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%10%

19%

41%

12%

44%

71%81%

97%

29%

Classification of National Occupations by Education Levelbased on Bureau of Labor Statistics Taxonomy

% Workers without High School Diploma % Workers with High School Diploma % Workers with Some college, no degree% Workers with Associate's degree % Workers with Bachelor's or higher

OCCUPATIONS BY EDUCATION LEVEL

% W

OR

KER

S

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How We Classify the Educational Levels Needed by Various Occupations Yield Significantly Different Results

9

SOURCE: Florida data is from the Dept. of Economic Opportunity; National data is from Bureau of Labor Statistics – see link.

GraduateDegrees

Bachelor'sDegrees

Associate'sDegrees

Postsecondary Vocational High SchoolDiploma

Less thanHigh School

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

3%

10%

14%

37%

19%17%

4%

16%

4%

20% 19%

37%

5%

16%

6% 5%

43%

26%

Employment by Educational Taxonomy

Florida Jobs (DOE/DEO Taxonomy) Florida Jobs (BLS Taxonomy) National Jobs (BLS Taxonomy)

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10 The Business Perspective on Job Classification

• More than half (53%) of business leaders say their companies face a very or fairly major challenge in recruiting non-managerial employees with the skills, training, and education their company needs, despite unemployment close to 10% and millions of Americans seeking jobs at the time of our survey.

• The majority of business leaders (63%) believe a four-year bachelor’s degree is the important degree to achieve success in the workplace, while only 18% believe a career or technical credential and 14% believe a two-year associate’s degree are important to achieve such success.

• More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy (79%) and workforce productivity (76%). They also recognize the potential to affect both the success of their company (75%) and their company’s ability to hire and retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%).Across The Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs

and College Presidents on America’s Higher Education and Skills Gap (2011)

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Supply Methodologies

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Supply Methodology: Historical growth trendsBachelor’s Degrees

Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data.

Note*: Projections for ‘Florida (Historical trend)’ are based on maintaining the 8yr historical average growth rate of 3,000 per year.

12

Historically, the SUS produces 63% - 65% of Florida’s Bachelor’s degreesFlorida Total Includes: SUS, ICUF, CIE, FCS.

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

86,249

128,300

54,614

83,400

FLORIDA (all sectors) based on Historical Trend SUS based on Historical Trend

projectionsactual

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Supply Methodology: Historical growth trendsGraduate Degrees

Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data.

Note*: Projections for ‘Florida (Historical trend)’ are based on maintaining the 8yr historical average growth rate.

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2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

29,386

47,00038,521

62,900

Graduate Degrees in Florida

Master's Degrees Graduate Degrees

projectionsactual

[See also Supporting Slide 11.]

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Florida’s Race To The Top GoalsDouble the Percent Earning College Credit

14

Source: Florida Department of Education

as of March 2011

Supply Methodology: Increasing the high school graduation rate

[See also Supporting Slide 12.]

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Source: US DOE 2011 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 212 – see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2008 high school graduates.

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Florida is ranked 38th

in the percent of its public and private high school graduates who continue on to an Associates or higher degree-granting institution in any state.

1st Quartile

2nd Quartile

3rd Quartile

4th Quartile

65%

57%

74%

59%

57%

64%

63%

60%

70%

66%

USA: 63%BIG 10: 63%

Florida’s College Continuation Rateis among the lowest in the country

Supply Methodology: Increasing the college continuation rate of high school graduates

[See also Supporting Slides 13-14.]

www.flbog.edu

Florida College System’s AA Degrees & Cont. Ed.Actual and Projections: What Can the FCS Contribute?

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Source: BOG staff analysis of FCS degree production and FETPIP’s Annual Outcomes Report. Note: FCS AA recipients who re-enrolled in FCS are not counted as Continuing Education.

Historically,45%-50% of AA recipients continue their education within theSUS or ICUFthe following year.

Based on historical trends, AA degree production is projected to increase tomore than 100,000 by 2025.

2002-2

003

2003-2

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2004-2

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2005-2

006

2006-2

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2007-2

008

2008-2

009

2009-2

010

2010-2

011

2011-2

012

2012-2

013

2013-2

014

2014-2

015

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016

2016-2

017

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018

2018-2

019

2019-2

020

2020-2

021

2021-2

022

2022-2

023

2023-2

024

2024-2

025

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

AA degrees Continue Education

projectionsactual

Supply Methodology: Increasing the continuation rate of A.A. graduates

www.flbog.edu

Sources: FETPIP – 2009-10 Annual Outcomes Report

http://www.fldoe.org/fetpip/pdf/0910pdf/pubs0910text.pdf

Note: GED Completers data based on national report (see link) and percentage continuing education is based on FETPIP data (from smaller sample).

17

Annually, more than 200,000 of Florida’s students do not

continue their postsecondary education.

The Florida College Access Network has reported that 2.1 million adults in Florida went to College but did not

finish. And, between 2008-11 more than 100,000 students left the FCS and SUS after only completing half of their

degree program.SUS non-completers

FCS non-completers

FCS completers

GED

High School graduates

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

25,700

51,400

20,800

23,900

45,400

42,100

Annual Summary of Students Who Do Not Continue Their Education

Series1

Potential Additional Annual Supply of Completers who Do Not Continue and Non-Completers

Supply Methodology: Increasing adult education

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The Dual Nature of theNet Migration of Degree

Holders

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Florida’s Net Domestic Migration

Source: US Census 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates of Geographic Mobility – Tables B07009 & B07409.

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

MOVE TO FLORIDA MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA

+5,396

+6,379

+8,765+8,713

+663

Domestic Migration In/Out of Floridaby Educational Attainment Level (2006-2010)

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• During the past 5 years, 39% of Florida’s Net Migrants (25 years and older) have had a Bachelor’s or graduate degree, which is considerably higher than the educational attainment of Florida’s resident population (of 25%).

[See also Supporting Slides 15-16.]

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Next Steps

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Summary of Degree Goals21

Notes: OECD goal based on College Credential Dashboard estimates for Florida’s contribution – see link.

HISTORICALTREND

BIG 10 AVGper 1,000 18-24yr

BIG 10 AVG% of 25-34yr

OECDGOAL

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

86,240in 2010

86,240in 2010

86,240in 2010

86,250

42,000more by

2025

60,000more by

2025

65,000more by

2025

93,000more by

2025

128,300 146,200

151,300

179,300

Bachelor Degree Production Targets for 2025

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Three Primary Policy Areas for Achieving Degree Targets

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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

86,000

20,000

30,000

30,000

166,000

TOTAL

Increase Adult Education initiatives

Increase AA Transfer rates

Increase FTIC Pipeline rates

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Educational Attainment by County Where Do we Expect Florida’s Growth?

23

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To Recap• Board of Governors SUS goal to produce 90,000 bachelor’s degrees each year by 2025 can be achieved.

• Combined with ICUF, CIE and FCS institutions, the system could be producing 128,000 bachelor’s degrees each year by 2025 if we simply do what we’re doing now.

IF WE CONTINUE DOING WHAT WE’RE DOING, IS THAT ENOUGH?