How havard and yale beat the market

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  • 1. WHAT INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS CAN LEARN FROM UNIVERSITY ENDOWMENTS TO HELP THEM PROSPER IN AN UNCERTAIN MARKET

2. How Harvard and Yale Beat the Market WHAT INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS CAN LEARN FROM UNIVERSITY ENDOWMENTS TO HELP THEM PROSPER IN AN UNCERTAIN MARKET Matthew Tuttle John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 3. Copyright 2009 by Matthew Tuttle. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978)646-8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Tuttle, Matthew, 1968 How Harvard and Yale beat the market : what individual investors can learn from university endowments to help them prosper in an uncertain market/ Matthew Tuttle. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-470-40176-7 (cloth) 1. InvestmentsUnited States. 2. Harvard UniversityEndowments. 3. Yale UniversityEndowments. 4. Institutional investmentsUnited States. 5. Portfolio managementUnited States. I. Title. HG4910.T88 2009 332.6dc22 2008047056 Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 4. Contents Acknowledgments v Introduction: Why You Should Invest Like an Endowment vii Part I: Investment 101: An Introduction to the Endowment Philosophy of Investing Chapter 1 The Current Environment and the Need for New Thinking 3 Chapter 2 Common Investment Mistakes 13 Chapter 3 Diversification: The Best Investment Strategy 25 Chapter 4 Skill-Based Money Managers versus Style Box-Based Money Managers 35 Chapter 5 Introduction to the Endowment Philosophy 53 Chapter 6 Why Large Endowments Outperform the Market and How You Can, Too! 63 Part II: Investment Vehicles Chapter 7 Mutual Funds, Separately Managed Accounts, Exchange-Traded Funds, and Exchange-Traded Notes 79 iii 5. Chapter 8 Structured Products 89 Chapter 9 Hedge Funds and Funds of Funds 97 Part III: Endowment Asset Classes and Investing Strategies Chapter 10 Absolute Return 121 Chapter 11 Stocks 129 Chapter 12 Bonds 139 Chapter 13 Real Assets and Commodities 151 Chapter 14 Managed Futures 165 Chapter 15 Private Equity 177 Chapter 16 Managing Some of Your Money In-House 185 Chapter 17 Portable Alpha 197 Part IV: Designing Your Portfolio Chapter 18 Suggested Allocations 211 Chapter 19 Choosing and Managing Money Managers 217 Chapter 20 Putting It All Together 227 Chapter 21 Putting It in Writing: The Investment Policy Statement 243 Final Thoughts 259 Appendix: Key Terms 261 About the Author 269 Index 271 iv Contents 6. v Acknowledgments Iwant to sincerely thank the following people who made enor- mous contributions to this book: My agent, Carole Jelen McClendon, for making this project a reality My mother, Cheryl Tuttle, and Adam Bluestein who helped me edit the book Sherry Carnahan who helped with graphics All of the mutual fund companies that provided me facts and figures, including Ivy Funds, DWS-Scudder, and Riversource Most importantly I want to thank my daughter Cameron, and my sons, Jared and Braden, for tolerating the late nights and week- ends that I spent working on this book. 7. vii Introduction WHY YOU SHOULD INVEST LIKE AN ENDOWMENT Why should you read this book instead of the millions of other books out there that teach you how to invest? Because this book is different from the other investment books I have seen. It will not teach you how to nd the next great stock. It will not teach you how to tell when we are in a bull or bear market. It will not predict that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to 50,000, nor will it pre- dict that it is going down to 5,000. What it will do is teach you the strategies that large college endowments have used to beat the mar- ket with less risk. You can choose to apply these strategies to your portfolio as a whole or as a part of your portfolio, whatever makes the most sense for your situation. 2008 was a difcult year for investors, college endowments included. As an investor, you can choose to put your head in the sand and your money under a mattress, or you can learn the lessons of 2008 and choose to adopt an investment strategy that gives you the best possible chance of achieving your goals. What happened in 2008 does not wipe out years and years of outperformance by large endowments. If anything, it stresses the need for abandoning buy and hold, traditional asset allocation, and indexing in favor of the investment strategies that have made the large endowments suc- cessful for years. Regardless of what some might say, there is no right answer when it comes to investing. If there were, then there would only be one book and you wouldnt need nancial advisors like me. If you are looking for a strategy that will grow your portfolio by 80% per year, then this book is not for you. If you are looking for a way to invest for absolute returns regardless of the market environment, then read on. The vast majority of investors have no strategy; they are buying and selling investments based on their emotions. As I will show you later in this book, your emotions cause you to do stupid things with 8. viii How Harvard and Yale Beat the Market your money. A well-thought-out philosophy will keep you on track and hopefully keep you from making the mistakes that most inves- tors make. The endowment approach is a philosophy that can keep you on track and can help take your emotions out of the equation. I do warn you. There is no easy way when it comes to investing. If you want great results, you need to put in the work or you have to be willing to hire someone and delegate the work. There are a lot of people who are tempted to take the easy way out and put all of their money in an index fund. As of this writing, index funds that track the Standard & Poors 500 Index are down 14.26% year to date and have averaged 2.31% per year over the past three years. My guess is that if you believed that putting all your money into an index fund is the smart way to go, then you probably would not be reading this book. These days, it is more important than ever to make smart choices about your investments. More and more, individuals will be respon- sible for a larger part of their retirement and nancial security. Years ago, companies offered dened benet pension plans that paid workers a large percent of their salary when they retired. Now, your company has a 401(k) plan into which you put your own money, and if you are lucky, your company will match part of it. Companies also used to offer postretirement health care to their retirees. We do not see that being offered to current workers anymore, and from time to time we hear about companies trying to wriggle out of their responsibilities to retired workers. I am not going to take on the argument of whether Social Security and Medicare should be over- hauled in this book, but I do not believe that what I will get when I turn 65 (as of the release date of this book I will be 40) will bear any resemblance to what my grandparents got and what my mother will get. Retirement used to be a three-legged stool. One leg was your employer, one leg was the government, and your savings was the third leg. Now you need to plan on retirement being a unicycle. The only thing you can really count on is your savings. If the govern- ment and/or your employer kick in a large chunk, then thats great. You will have more than you need; thats a good problem to have. If they dont, then you need to be prepared. I have been involved with the markets in one way or another for almost two decades. This is my second book, and I have contributed to a few others. I am a frequent guest on Fox Business News and BusinessWeek TV and have been on CNBC, Fox News, and CNNfn. I am also frequently quoted in the Wall Street Journal, SmartMoney, 9. Introduction ix Kiplingers, and many other nancial publications. I also manage money for individual and institutional investors through my own registered investment advisor, Tuttle Wealth Management, LLC, and through a second registered investment advisor, PCG Wealth Advisory, LLC. I have long been interested in how institutional investors, large college endowments in particular, have always been way ahead of individual investors. They tend to adopt investment strategies years before individual investors do. By the time individ- uals catch on, the institutions have already found something bet- ter. When institutions were embracing multiasset class allocation, individual investors were trying to pick stocks. Years later, individual investors have nally grasped the importance of traditional asset allocation while the large institutions have realized that it doesnt work well and are now on to bigger and better things. I have also always hated losing money, so I am constantly looking for investment strategies that give me the highest chance possible of preserving money in any market environment. Part of this is self- preservation and the other part is common sense. During the start of the technology bubble in the late 1990s, I worked for a major Wall Street rm. Although I never got involved in recommending Internet stocks to my clients, many of my colleagues did. For a while things were great for them and their clients, until 2000 when they blew their clients up. To blow a client up is a Wall Street term that means lose most or all of your clients money in a bad investment. Blowing a client up is obviously not a good thing. If you blow up all your clients, you basically blow up your own practice as well. Pearls of Stockbrokerage Wisdom When I started out at my brokerage rm, one of the grizzled veterans came over to talk to me about the wisdom of surviving as a stock- broker. He told me to cold call like crazy to try to get new clients. Once I got a client, I was supposed to make lots of trades in his or her account (this isnt really legal; the industry calls it churning). He said I would probably blow up half my clients; of those who I blew up, half would leave and half would stay, until I blew them up again. I would continually be adding new clients and blowing up my existing clients, but he assured me if I followed this formula I was guaranteed to make a six-gure salary (it might even be enough to pay for bail). Now you know why I needed to nd a better way. 10. x How Harvard and Yale Beat the Market Not losing money also makes nancial sense. First it keeps you invested while other people are selling and putting money under the mattress. Second, if you dont lose a lot when the market goes down, you dont need to gain a lot when it goes up and you can still end up ahead. The large college endowments have always had to be more innovative than most institutional investors as they have an almost impossible investment mandate. Not only do they need to generate a large enough real return (return after ination) so the endow- ment can spend money, but they also are not expected to take a lot of risk and subject the endowment to losses. Real Returns In many parts of this book we will refer to real returns. These are the returns you have after ination. If I put $50 into a mutual fund and at the end of the year it is worth $100, then I have an actual return of 100%. Thats great! However, if ination is so bad that at the end of the year it takes me $100 to buy what I used to pay $50 for, then in real life I didnt make anything. That is why real returns are so important. If I am the chief investment ofcer of some institution and my benchmark is down 20% and I am down only 10%, then my boss is happy. If I was the chief investment ofcer of a large college endow- ment, then I would be in danger of losing my job. There is no reason that there needs to be a gap in what institu- tions and individuals are doing. Endowments and institutional inves- tors dont keep what they are doing a secret. Harvard, Yale, and the other large endowments publish annual reports where they divulge their asset allocation and their investment thinking. Go to the web site of just about any university, and you should be able to nd the annual report of their endowment. You can also type portable alpha into any search engine, and you will see what the institutional inves- tors are talking about and where the future of investment manage- ment is headed (or read my chapter on portable alpha). Unfortunately, many investment advisors that serve individual clients do not take the time to gure out how these strategies can be adapted to individuals. Most prefer to stay with the tried-and-true 11. Introduction xi strategies even though they are no longer working. When I started out as a stockbroker in the 1990s, I enthusiastically embraced the asset allocation theory that the large institutions were using. I was not afraid to be on the cutting edge. However, most of the old-line stockbrokers still stuck by their traditional stock picking. It took them years (and tons of losses during the technology stock bub- ble bursting) to embrace a traditional asset allocation approach. Of cour...