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HOW DARK MIGHT EAST ASIA'S NUCLEAR FUTURE BE? By Henry Sokolski Executive Director, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center http://www.npolicy.org/ 6/14/2016 1 82 Chapter 5 Presented at the RAND Corporation Santa Monica, California June 14, 2016

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Page 1: HOW DARK MIGHT EAST ASIA'S NUCLEAR …npolicy.org/article_file/1601_ch5_Sokolski.pdfHOW DARK MIGHT EAST ASIA'S NUCLEAR FUTURE BE? By Henry ' Sokolski Executive Director, Nonproliferation

HOW DARK MIGHT EAST ASIA'S NUCLEAR

FUTURE BE? By Henry D. Sokolski

Executive Director, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center http://www.npolicy.org/

6/14/2016 1

82

Chapter 5

Presented at the RAND Corporation Santa Monica, California

June 14, 2016

Kate Harrison
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Kate Harrison
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Kate Harrison
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Aug.

With a boosted weapon there is no concern about stray neutrons starting the fission chain reaction too early and having the bomb blow apart before attaining full yield... it permits a fission bomb to use any type of plutonium, including so-called reactor-grade, without degradation in performance.

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material

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Won Yoo-cheol, ruling Saenuri Party’s f loor leader

Rep. Kim Jung-hoon, chief policy maker for the ruling Saenuri Party

ChungMoong-joon, former chairman of the ruling Saenuri Party

Chosin Ilbo --

At the end of 2014, the Wolsong plants stored 7,414 metric tons of spent fuel rods. If this reprocessed, it is possible, in theory, to obtain 74 metric tons of plutonium. Chosin Ilbo, February 19, 2016. (Note Well: This article exaggerates how much plutonium Wolsong reactors have made: The right figure is more like ~30 metric tons, not 74 since .38%, not 1%, is the correct figure for how much plutonium is produced in a typical heavy water reactor. Still, that's enough for more than 4,500 weapons)

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Expertsestimated that it would take a total of 6 months to build a reprocessing facility and then obtain the necessary fissile material for a nuclear bomb

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sandwiched between two terrifying threats, this time one nuclear-armed country in the North and another in the East Chosin Ilbo

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BAS March 24, 2015, Tong and Logan

Arms Control Wonk May 12, 2016, Krepon

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projected

'

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