An exclusive cover story for April 2013 issue of Goa Today

How Climate Change would impact Goa

Nandkumar M. Kamat

Land and landscape of Goa is creation of geological and meteorological forces. You get that feeling when you stand at Panajis Altinho, on Chimbel hillock facing Panaji, Margaos monte hillock, Remedias hill of Cansaulim, near lighthouse cliff at Aguada, on the sacred summits of Siddanath, Chandranath and Kasainath hills or when you look at the marine fossil beds at Sancoale or Siridao. Goa is a happy accident of nature. Nature would take back from Goa what it had created in the past. Only hilly areas and plateaus would escape the natures fury. Do not buy property in any area of Goa which is just 1 to 15 m above mean sea level. Do not buy property in Goa in areas with geological faults and weak rocky strata and soil. Do not buy property in Goa where thunderbolts would strike with higher frequency due to peculiar local conditions. Do not buy property in areas subject to cloudbursts-short spells of intense rains. Climate change research points to possibility that all the properties in low lying areas would have zero value in coming decades. That would include Caranzalem, Miramar, Campal belt and the ribbon development in Bardez and Salcete. In Goa where our ancestors took precautions to build 6 meters tall external Khazan embankments the local architects and engineers have failed to factor in the impacts of climate change. The EDC Pato plaza in Panaji would turn into a muddy swimming pool in a few years. The present model of Global Sea Level Rise (GSLR) predicts that about five percent of land of state of Goa, 18000 hectares, would be claimed by the advancing sea. Actually when the rising waves strike the damage would be worse. There is little hope for estuarine islands in Mandvoi and all the low lying Khazan lands. Only the hillocks of Divar, Chorao and Santo Estevam would rise above the waters. There is no way such irreversible submergence can be stopped. The landscape of Goa at present offers two pictures-the submergent landmass and the emergent landmass. The entire Salcete coastline is example of emergent landmass. Marine fossils found at Tuem, Camurlim, Chikhalim, Agacaim, Cortalim, Sancoale, near Mapusa river, Siridao, Bhati, Bambolim reveal a violent marine past. The landscape of Goa after a century would reduce the area under emergent landmass. Unless systematically shifted to higher grounds in ecologically secure locations, the dense population in Salcete , between west bank of river Sal and Arabian sea would be wiped out to due to GSLR. Calculations of present land use shows that only 43000 hectares of land in Goa is left for any sort of legal , permissible development. For thousands of years to come the development would have to be restricted to such a ridiculously small parcel of land unless we sacrifice all the agricultural lands. While many middle class and poor Goans cant afford to buy a small piece of land and property in their own motherland, their wealthy kiths and kins are selling old ancestral houses, land, property, whole hillocks, beachside scenic properties, farmlands, antiques and furniture to people outside Goa and India. Indirectly these senseless Goans are promoting demographic

engineering. The irony is that those Goans who fled to escape conversion to Christianity and later returned to live a peaceful life, like my forefathers have become refugees in their own land. Their own communidades are not willing to honorably resettle them. I am a landless Goan driven out of my ancestral Navelim communidade in Divar island. There are thousands like me. Internal refugees like me need to be first given special status and offered land for permanent settlement.

There is zero awareness in Goa on coming tsunami of climate change. Some seminars, workshops are held ritualistically but where are the worst case scenarios, the policy papers, the mitigation plans, the rehabilitation plans?. Climate research from NIO and Goa University is buried deep in expensive research papers and inaccessible restricted reports. Scientists publish only to advance their careers and not for public good. Besides there is a total veil of secrecy on ongoing research, so much so that even if climate researchers become aware of dangers to state of Goa they would not raise an alert. They would patiently wait for the peer review and when it is done the damage, the harm would have been already caused. Indian oceanographers and seismologists were sleeping when Asian megatsunami took place. Some of them assured as if they can read the pulse of planet that there is no harm of tsunami from the Arabian sea. And if a tsunami from the Arabian sea strikes Goa the only consolation would be revision of their models. Scientists seem to discard the precautionary principle. This happened after Latur earthquake. Every Indian geophysicist and seismologist true to his salt made the public believe that the basaltic Deccan plateau is immune to big earthquakes. But Latur jolts stripped them of their intellectual arrogance. The meteorite strike in Russia recently showed the ill preparedness of global scientific community to anticipate and deal with such catastrophic hits. In Italy the seismologists were sent to jail for misleading predictions.

Why there is no demand for Goas special ecological status on account of vulnerability to climate change?. The demand for special economic status for Goa is a diversionary political demand proving the failure of democracy in Goa to exploit the full legislative, administrative powers of statehood status. The union territory status was an economically highly subsidized status given to Goa, Daman and Diu after liberation. Central government was also liberal enough to permit continuation of many Portuguese legislations like the unique civil code. Goans gave up union territorial status and craved and clamoured for statehood. Now, 26 years later they have realized that they have created a beautiful mess out of statehood. So instead of accepting the blame they have raised the vague demand of Special status without being clear about it. I suspect that the basic demand is not so much about Special status but a status like Jammu and Kashmir or perhaps an autonomous status like Hong Kong and Macao. Special status is a beautiful mirage to be chased till a critical demographic transition occurs in Goa a transition which would make non Goan migrants majority. The NDA government rejected demand to change the Gadgil Mukherjee formula unfavourable to Goa. The UPA government also refused the demand. If Goa really needs special status then it should be special ecological status (SES) . Because as compared to any other coastal state in India, Goa is most vulnerable to impact of global warming, climate change and sea level rise. And what government of India, MOEF, the

planning commission have done about these concerns ? - practically nothing. The Goa team which makes presentations to the planning commission has also neglected this issue.

As compared to any other state in India, the smallest one in area and population, our state of Goa represents a very complex geological and ecological history. Goa is virtually a miracle of nature. Earths ancient history survives in Goa. The former head of department of earth sciences, Goa University, Prof. A. G. Dessai has provided a glimpse into the geological history of Goa. According to him -the Goa Group typically has a greenstone dominated sequence at the base which is overlain by a metaconglomerate over which rests a dominantly clastic sequence. The metaconglomerate (tilloid) was assigned the status of a para-conglomerate. The granitic gneisses in Goa are exposed at four different localities and are referred to as (i) Chandranath granite gneiss, (ii) Tamdi felspathic gneiss, (iii) Dudhsagar granite, and (iv) Canacona granite. They are all considered as intrusives into the supracrustals (greenstones). Some of planets oldest rocks and oldest microfossils survive in Goa. Anmode Ghat Trondhjemite Gneiss is exposed at Anmode (Tamdi felspathic gneiss of Gokul et al. 1985) along the Panaji-Belgaum National Highway (NH 4A) and is amongst the oldest gneisses from India that has yielded an Rb/Sr whole-rock age of 3400140 Million years (Dhoundial et al. 1987). The Indian plate drifted northward for 100 million years before it had a soft collision with the Eurasian plate during middle Eocene, about 50 million years ago. During the course of continued northward drift, around 69-65 Mya (Late cretaceous), widespread volcanism took place over the Indian landmass and created the deccan trap continental flood basalt province. It is interesting that the flood basalt did not cover Goa. If that were to happen then perhaps the history of Goa would have taken a different turn. Gokul (1985) has observed that during upper cretaceous-Lower Eocene period the area to the south of the present position of deccan trap in Goa should have been a prominent topographic high which restricted the spread of trap flows to the south. This small reniform state has seen the Hadean eon- when life arose on Earth. The Archean rocks ( 3800 to 2500 million years) correspond to the era of first eukaryotes. It was a very cold climate and atmosphere was getting richer in oxygen. I identified stromatolite deposits in upper reaches of Mhadei river indicating presence of a paleoreef where the river exists today. Goa witnessed proterozoic eon which produced first skeletonized animals. Earth was passing through several episodes of freezing. Huge number of species got eradicated known as mass extinction of Ediacarans. Then followed the Paleozoic era which began around 543 million years ago and lasted till 250 million years ago. This era produced Permian, Carboniferous, Devonian, Silurian, Ordovician, Cambrian periods. Three mass extinctions of species took place during this era. Goa was colonized by land plants. Some of the plant megafossils in Mhadei basin may belong to this period. It was a major ice age. The Mesozoic era saw cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic periods and the birth and death of Dinosaurs. Dinosaurs stopped migrating into south India about 160 million years ago. Their fossils have been found in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Careful research may reveal their presence in Goa. Some tribal children are reported to be playing with fossilized dinosaur eggs. The volcanism must have killed them. The fossils of Rhinoceres decanensis in Ghatprabha valley on border of Goa indicates the ancient megafauna which is now extinct. About 65 million years ago the present Cenozoic era began. It was the age of mammals. In the Miocene period, about 25 to 8 million years ago, Goas climate was tropical equatorial. About two million years ago it changed to strongly monsoonic. It was Pliocene period. Huge floods could have taken place during this period. A relatively dry seasonal climate followed in lower Pleistocene about two million years ago. It ended seven lakh years ago. That was the real beginning of a monsoonic

seasonal climate. So we can conclude that the monsoon really began in middle Pleistocene. Strong monsoon climate was witnessed in early to late Pleistocene period. The geomorphic data is present in reddish soils. This was the age of hunter food gatherers. Humans entered Goa for the first time. The late Pleistocene had a weak to moderate monsoon climate. It saw birth of stable sand dunes. The humans in Goa marched towards the coast. The terminal Pleistocene saw distinctly weak monsoons. This was about 10-20 thousand years ago. Then Goa came out of the ice age. The early Holocene ( 10 to 4 thousand years ago) saw strong monsoons. The evidence for such a climate is found in freshwater lakes, entrenched streams and stable dunes. This was also period of beginning of agriculture. About 4000 years ago monsoons became moderate. This phase has lasted till today. But human interference has stamped its impact on global weather and it also impacts Goas weather. The meteorological records of Goa are available for about 110 years and fairly good records are available for past 60 years. What these records indicate is the rising degree of uncertainty about weather pattern. At the end of the monsoon everyone looks at the total rainfall. But hidden in this figure is the story of climate change-the erratic distribution of the rainfall. The daily maximum temperatures are on rise for all summer months clearly proving the local impact of global climate change. Some of the warmest days were experienced in February 2013 and it is difficult to predict whether this year the mercury would touch and cross 40 deg. Celcius.

Nobody writes on climate change and history of our changing planet like Peter Ward, Professor of biology and Earth and space sciences at the University of Washington. I purchased his major available titles from Flipkart online bookshop and their reading offered me a clear perspective of the past, present and future of Earths climate. In The Medea hypothesis he propses that life is at its worst enemy. In another book The flooded earth- our future in a world without ice caps he paints the scenarios in 205, 2100, 2300 and beyond. Even if we stop all green house gas emissions to control global warming he says that the seas would rise by a catastrophic three metres by 2100. He predicts that cities like Miami, Venice, Amsterdam would have to be abandoned. Professor Wards books would shake the politicians and public in Goa. Indians are known to wake up late to face any natural catastrophe. The sosegado Goans would also wake up very late, may be past A.D. 2050-60 to grasp their ecological destiny.

Three years ago, I persuaded my board of studies in the subject of Botany at Goa University to change the old fashioned plant ecology syllabus and accept the new credit course in Advanced Ecology in which I introduced a complete module on Ecology of Climate change. While teaching this paper we could also do a little bit of field experimentation. We tried sampling pure rainwater under sterile conditions and unexpectedly found presence of several microorganisms in it eubacterial cells, cynaobacteria, microalgae, fungal spores and filaments raising serious questions about the role of these tiny creatures in monsoon clouds and climate change. Correspondence with Brent C. Christner, Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University encouraged us to develop the new area of Microbiology of Clouds further. Now I plan to collect rainwater samples from many locations in Goa during 2013 monsoon and identify the microbiological dimension. It is likely to provide some bioindicators of climate change.

Earlier I had heard Goas own climate researcher Joaquim Goes, Lamont research professor, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University speaking on blowing of dust from Iranian desert towards India, rising temperature of Indian ocean and Arabian sea, planktonic and

algal blooms depleting dissolved Oxygen in sea, acidification of the Arabian sea and consequent impact on Arabian sea fisheries. Professor Goes had painted a very gloomy picture of climate change in India and around the Indian ocean basin and he would be an indispensable intellectual asset to government of India and Goa in planning any machinery, mechanism and infrastructure for coping with climate change.

We dont need rocket science and expensive instruments to see the local impacts of climate change. It is happening right in our backyard. Trees flowering early, birds breeding early, mushrooms sprouting at unusual time, insects proliferating in off seasons, termites mounting voracious attacks on household furniture, a beautiful rainbow in middle of warm February, sudden development of mini tornadoes or dust devils lifting garbage sky high, increasing number of lightning bolts striking the ground, erratic rains, long dry spells in monsoon followed by intense showers, high intensity rains in September, a cloudburst dropping half a meter of rain and causing unprecedented floods in Canacona, sudden intrusion by sea in Canacona and Pernem damaging the canoes, continuous coastal erosion, satellites reporting Goas atmosphere covered in smoke , sudden spurt in respiratory illnesses, allergies, skin diseases, viral diseases, water reservoirs rapidly going dry- all these are indicators of climate change and drivers/ forces which cause it. The nature speaks in complex language. The local impact of global climate change is discernible in Goa. In addition to climate change there is also impact of four major environmental drivers- mining (post 1945), urbanization (post-1961), Industrialization (post-1971) and tourism (post- 1972) which have strongly impacted Goa.

Exposure of green hillsides, heavy concretization of the surface has changed the local heat budget. The ancient heat sinks- green belts, natural orchards, small and large lakes, ponds, tanks have vanished. Earlier microclimate in villages used to get controlled by landscape mosaic nursed by the communidades. There were windbreaks in coastal areas and on plateaus comprising thick, tall dense coconut groves or bamboos. This was followed by rows of useful trees-mango, jackfruit, tamarind, ficus. Old drainage systems were integrated in natural contours and followed the hydrological setting. So, small impacts of climate change were cushioned. This age old traditional capacitance of 400 Goan villages was compromised by the juggernaut of urbanization. So the already torn ecological fabric of Goa is now expected to face the fearful onslaught of climate change.

There is no capacitance to survive massive cloudburst or a major cyclone. There is no capacitance to withstand a prolonged heat wave. There is only supply side management which encourages people to waste potable water. Despite good intentions of the government Goa faces acute water scarcity. The surface water resources availability is purely notional. It is computed as a function of average rainfall. But what if rains fail for two or more years?. The government would have to factor in such worst case scenarios and begin planning for desalination plants in coastal areas. It would be now much cheaper to run these plants on natural gas. The ill preparedness of Goa in health sector is also a major problem because WHO is concerned about emergence of new human pathogens due to rising temperatures and climate change. Climate

change would heavily favour insect population in Goa. Arthropod borne fevers would hold a threat. New strains of viruses would play havoc. Skin cancers would increase. Heat strokes would kill vulnerable people. Children between 0 to 5 years of age are very vulnerable to climate change. They would need a special protective program. Climate change demands switch over to special crops, special diets, special life styles, adaptive nutrition. The school calendars may have to be reorganized to avoid periods of uncomfortable weather. The government of India has no specific mitigation plan for the extremely vulnerable state of Goa. One full day needs to be reserved by the legislative assembly of Goa only to discuss the emerging threat due to climate change. It is no more a purely academic matter. The chairman of IPCC, Dr. R.K. Pachauri has spoken at least three times in Goa in past one year on climate change. Scientists and academicians working on climate change need to be more open, more proactive. In the coming years politicians and people of Goa would prove Mark Twain correct. The famous American writer had once reportedly quipped- Everybody talks about weather but nobody does anything about it. Goa and Goans would continue to talk about changing weather, but who would do anything about it?. How and When?. Any guess?.