How Can Policy Research Help the Department of Homeland Security?

Jack RileyNovember 18, 2004

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember 18 2004 - 2

Homeland Security and CounteringTerrorism Are Key Topics for RAND Research

Hitting America’sSoft Underbelly

The Potential Threat ofDeliberate Biological AttacksAgainst the U.S. Agriculturaland Food Industry

PETER CHALK

RANDPublic Safety and Justice

A Quick GuideLynn E. Davis, Tom LaTourrette, David E. Mosher, Lois M. Davis,

David R. Howell

Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear,and Biological Terrorist Attacks

RANDNational Defense Research Institute

A Component in theWar on al Qaeda

Paul K. DavisBrian Michael Jenkins

RAND Project AIR FORCE

Kim CraginSara A. Daly

An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilitiesin a Changing World

The DynamicTerrorist Threat

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember 18 2004 - 3

Confronting Terrorism Requires a Role for Strategic Policy Planning

• Good analogy is the Cold War, where multiple different strategies (MAD, containment, etc) were tried

• Governments are generally bad at such planning– Even the creation of DHS does not fully

concentrate responsibility

• Universities, think tanks and private sector were important to developing the Cold War strategy

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember 18 2004 - 4

Developing a Strategy Requires a Roadmap

Political, Economic,Cultural Sources

Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities

Offensive/Foreign

Military Strategy and Programs

Intelligence Strategy and Programs

Police and Justice

International Development

Political Actions

Counter- and Non-Proliferation

Defensive/Domestic

Preventive Measures

Response Measures

Threat and Risk Analysis

ThreatAnalysis

DirectAction

Support

Denial

HomelandSecurity

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember 18 2004 - 5

HomelandSecurity

Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research

Political, Economic,Cultural Sources

Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities

Offensive/Foreign

Military Strategy and Programs

Intelligence Strategy and Programs

Police and Justice

International Development

Political Actions

Counter- and Non-Proliferation

Defensive/Domestic

Preventive Measures

Response Measures

Threat and Risk Analysis

ThreatAnalysis

DirectAction

Support

Denial

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember 18 2004 - 6

HomelandSecurity

Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research

Political, Economic,Cultural Sources

Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities

Offensive/Foreign

Military Strategy and Programs

Intelligence Strategy and Programs

Police and Justice

International Development

Political Actions

Counter- and Non-Proliferation

Defensive/Domestic

Preventive Measures

Response Measures

Threat and Risk Analysis

Why do they hate us?

What makes them hate us more?

DirectAction

Support

Denial

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember 18 2004 - 7

Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research

Political, Economic,Cultural Sources

Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities

Offensive/Foreign

Military Strategy and Programs

Intelligence Strategy and Programs

Police and Justice

International Development

Political Actions

Counter- and Non-Proliferation

Defensive/Domestic

Preventive Measures

Response Measures

Threat and Risk Analysis

Why do they hate us?

What makes them hate us more?

DirectAction

Support

Denial

How can we best allocate scare HS dollars?

Does security deter?

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember 18 2004 - 8

Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research

Political, Economic,Cultural Sources

Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities

Offensive/Foreign

Military Strategy and Programs

Intelligence Strategy and Programs

Police and Justice

International Development

Political Actions

Counter- and Non-Proliferation

Defensive/Domestic

Preventive Measures

Response Measures

Threat and Risk Analysis

Why do they hate us?

What makes them hate us more?

DirectAction

Support

Denial

How can we best allocate scare HS dollars?

Does security deter?

How can we best reduce the supply of terrorists?

USC CREATE Meeting, Nov ember 18 2004 - 9

Is This Kind of Strategic Planning Occurring?

• The initial focus was on plugging the security gaps– Appears to be increasing focus on strategic

planning issues

• The DHS Centers are an excellent start– The Centers do not completely address the

issue of “high level policy architecture”– DHS and others should seek long-term,

strategic partnerships with multiple organizations