Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014

Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA

Current Trends and Forecasts

January 30, 2014

Jeannette Chapman, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Lisa Sturtevant, PhD, NHC Center for Housing Policy

Total SalesWashington MSA

All Property Types

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

SFDSFACondo

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Sales Volume (millions of $)Washington MSA

All Property Types

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

SFDSFACondo


Median Sale PriceWashington MSA

All Housing Types

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

DC

NoVa

MSA

SubMD

Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total SalesDistrict of Columbia

All Property Types

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

SFDSFACondo


Total SalesSuburban Maryland

All Property Types

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

SFDSFACondo


Total SalesNorthern Virginia

All Property Types

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

SFDSFACondo


Average Sale PriceWashington MSA

Single-Family Detached Homes

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

DCNoVaMSASubMD



Single-Family Attached Homes

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

DCMSANoVaSubMD



Condo Homes

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

DCMSASubMDNoVa


Year-End Average New Condominium Prices Per SF

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

NoVa, Inside Beltway

District

SubMD, Inside Beltway

SubMD, Outside Beltway

NoVa, Outside Beltway

Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Active ListingsWashington MSA

All Housing Types

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

200820092010201120122013

Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Stabilized Vacancy RatesClass A High-Rise

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%DC

Bethesda

Rosslyn-Ballston Cor-ridor


Stabilized Vacancy RatesClass A High-Rise

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%Crystal City/ Pen-tagon City

North Bethesda/ Rockville

Alexandria

Silver Spring/ Wheaton


Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

DC

Bethesda

Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor


Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Crystal City/ Pen-tagon City

Silver Spring/ Wheaton

Alexandria

North Bethesda/ Rockville


The Washington Economy

Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA, 2002-2013

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

2002

2005

2008

Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA, 2002-2013

-20

-10

0

10

20


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


2002

2005

2008

Nov 2008 to Nov 2009





-50

-25

0

25

50

(4.7)8.8 14.5 6.6 (0.2)

(40.1)

33.4 36.9 36.5

24.1

Professional & Business Services All Other Sectors

Annual Change in EmploymentWashington MSA

Federal GovernmentWashington MSA, 2002-2013

-20

-10

0

10

20


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


2002

2005

2008

Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change by Wage Category between 2008 to 2013

Lower Wage

Mid-Wage

Higher-Wage

(50,000) 0 50,000 100,000

2008-2009 2010-2013

Sources: EMSI 2013.3 & GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area

Employment Change in the WMSAby Sub-State Area (000s)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

D.C. 14.1 5.6 1.9 9.7 11.3 9.3 6.5 4.6

Sub. MD 4.4 4.8 20.7 18.1 22.7 20.0 14.3 12.2

No. VA 26.4 23.5 14.6 32.2 31.8 36.8 35.0 30.3

REGION 42.6 32.2 37.5 60.2 66.1 66.4 56.2 47.5

Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000

Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional AnalysisNOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.

Employment Change by Sub-state Area,

2012 – 2032Net New

Jobs % Change

D.C. 148,500 19.8%Sub. MD 254,800 26.4%No. VA 448,700 32.5%

REGION* 857,300 27.6%

*Includes Jefferson, WVNote: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

Principal Sources of JobGrowth in the Washington Area, 2012-2032

(000s) Job % of Total Median Change Job Change Wage*Prof. & Sci. Svs/Mgt 401.8 46.9% $81,500Admin & Waste Svs 139.0 16.2 29,500Construction 95.0 11.1 36,700Health Services 71.2 8.3 39,500Leisure/Hospitality 45.9 5.4 18,300 Sub-Total 753.1 87.8% Overall Total 857.3 100.0 $48,900

* in 2011$s


DC SubMD NoVa0

100

200

300

400

500

64

120162

15

48

42

69

58

204

29 41

$75K +

$50 - 74.9K

$25 - 49.9K

< $25K

Net New Jobs By Median Wage,2012 – 2032

Includes Part Time JobsJobs In 000s Median Wage


Housing Demand by Sub-state Area, 2012 – 2032

By Work Location

By Current Commute Patterns

D.C. 105,200 41,800

Sub. MD 160,800 184,800

No. VA 279,000 261,500

Outside Region 0 56,600

REGION* 548,300 548,300

*Includes Jefferson, WV.Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

Demand by Housing Type and Sub-state Region,

2012-2032

Total Single-Family

Multi-Family

D.C. 105,200 38,000 67,200

Sub. MD 160,800 106,600 54,200

No. VA 279,000 197,600 81,400

REGION* 548,300 344,600 203,700

*Includes Jefferson, WVNote: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding


Current Housing Stock Future Demand, 2012-2022

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

25% 31%

6%6%5%7%

15%15%5%6%

43%35% SFD Owner

SFD Renter

SFA Owner

SFA Renter

MF Owner

MF Renter

Comparison of Current Stock & Demand by Housing Type, Washington MSA


$200k-

399k37%

$400k-

599k34%

Demand for New Units by Price Washington MSA, 2012-2032

$1,250-1,74939%

$1,750-2,24915%

<$1,250 44%

$2,250+, 2%

Owner Households Renter Households

Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

$600k+13%

<$200k16%

$200k-

399k46%

$400k-

599k31%

Demand for New Units by Price District of Columbia, 2012-2032

$1,250-1,74938%

$1,750-2,24916%

<$1,250 43%

$2,250+, 3%



$600k+8% <$200k

14%

$200k-399

k40%

$400k-599

k27%

Demand for New Units by Price Suburban Maryland, 2012-2032

$1,250-1,74937%

$1,750-2,24911%

<$1,250 51%

$2,250+, 1%



$600k+11% <$200k

22%

$200k-

399k33%

$400k-

599k38%

Demand for New Units by Price Northern Virginia, 2012-2032

$1,250-1,74941%

$1,750-2,24917%

<$1,250 40%

$2,250+, 3%



$600k+16%

<$200k14%

• Local jurisdictions are planning for an insufficient amount of housing to accommodate future workers.

• More housing is needed closer to jobs, in existing and growing regional employment centers.

• There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable owner and renter homes in the region.

• A lack of a sufficient supply of housing contributes to worsening traffic and quality of life and threatens our region’s economic vitality.

Housing Policy Issues

Questions?

Jeannette Chapman GMU Center for Regional Analysis

[email protected], 703-993-2274

Lisa Sturtevant, PhDNHC Center for Housing Policy

[email protected], 202-466-2121 ext. 234

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014