House Majority PAC White Working Class Voter Project ...static.politico.com/f2/08/7cab64cb4a0a91a46b57a9a...4 WWC Voters: Snapshot Some Key Facts 47% Male 53% Female 29% 37% 35% Dem

House Majority PAC

White Working Class Voter Project (continued)

Brodnitz/Normington

July 2017

2

Methodology

➢This report covers the results of our research: 1000 total interviews in targeted House districts with a sample of likely 2018

voters. All of the voters were White, over the age of twenty-four and did not have a college degree or higher education. The

interviews were conducted June 27 – July 13, 2017. The margin of error for overall results is ±3.10% and higher among

subgroups.

o Undecideds (Undec) are 24% of the electorate and are defined as anyone who was undecided on the initial ballot (InitB).

o Target Voters (Targ) are 15% of the electorate and are those that do not initially vote for the Democratic candidate, but

switch and do after messaging.

o Obama + No Vote are 11% of the electorate and are voters that voted for President Obama in 2012, but voted for a

candidate besides Hillary Clinton in 2016.

➢The regions are defined as follows:

o The Midwest (MW) is 40% of the electorate and is defined as those living in Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota or

Wisconsin.

o The Northeast (NE) is 35% of the electorate and is defined as those living in Maine, New Jersey, New York or

Pennsylvania.

o The South/West (SW) is 25% of the electorate and is defined as those living in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida or

Texas.

3

Building On The Previous WWC Research

➢ White voters without a college degree made up 34% of the electorate in 2016. Their share was stable since 2012 but our

margin got 12% worse.

➢ In 2016 we heard concerns about multiple changes – demographic, security and economic – but economic was dominant.

➢ In our April 2016 poll with these voters, nearly three-quarters (72%) said they preferred a factory job over an office job (28%). A

large majority (69%) said it was very important that their next Member of Congress “Will do more to ensure that people are

rewarded for hard work.”

➢ A majority (57%) said a college degree would result in more debt and little likelihood of landing a good paying job, while 43%

said a college degree was a necessary step to get ahead. 83% said a college degree was no longer any guarantee of success

in America, while 17% said people who have a college degree are able to get ahead.

➢ In short, when these voters hear people tell them that the answer to their concerns is college, their reaction is to essentially say

– don’t force your version of the American Dream on me.

Year % of Electorate % Obama/ HRC % Romney/ Trump Diff

2012 36% 36% 61% -25%

2016 34% 29% 66% -37%

4

WWC Voters: Snapshot

Some Key Facts

47% Male

53% Female

29%

37%

35%

Dem

Ind

Rep

Party ID

MW40%

NE35%

South/West25%

Region

19%

32%

41%

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Ideology49% live in a gun household

68%

32%

32% live in a Union

Household39% live in a Vet/Military

household

56%

34%

Pro-Choice

Pro-Life

Abortion Views

The unemployment rate for people without a high school degree is 8.6%,

5.4% for people with a high school degree but no college and 2.7% for

people with a college degree or higher (includes all races).

5

Political Environment Among WWC Battleground

➢ Democrats trail on the initial Congressional ballot by ten.

➢ A majority approve of the job President Trump is doing. Trump’s standing is better than House Republicans’ (who will actually

be on the ballot) with these voters.

➢ A majority also say the Trump Presidency is either going as well as they expected or going better than they expected. A majority

still say the country is off on the wrong track – they are still waiting for the change they hoped to see.

➢ Voters are acutely aware of the health care debate, by a large margin it is the issue that voters want their Member of Congress

most focused on.

➢ While Democrats have a small advantage on health care with this group, Republicans have major advantages on middle class

tax cuts, ensuring people are rewarded for hard work, and improving the economy and creating jobs.

o We have a small advantage on health care despite the unpopularity of the GOP health approach, but our deficit on the

economy and jobs is overwhelming.

➢ In our 2014 work, jobs were considered more of a priority than wages. That appears to have shifted to a focus on jobs that pay

well.

6

Messaging Findings

➢ The two strongest narratives were:

o A message that simply says that we need to do more to help create jobs that pay well and a

variation that adds that we should make it easier for people to save for retirement.

o A message that says we need to understand that not everyone wants to go to college is also

effective. This means we need to make sure that those who do not attend college get the skills and

training they need to get jobs.

o A narrative about villains did not test as well nor did the Wall Street Republican negative –

this reinforces the need to emphasize solutions over villains. Our most important villain –

Congressional Republicans. It’s worth keeping in mind, Democratic leaders will be a

significant villain highlighted by the GOP.

7

Messaging Findings

➢ The strongest policies for a Democratic candidate are almost entirely economically focused. They

include a focus on job training, infrastructure and tax credits for hiring American workers. These voters

also strongly support expanding Social Security.

o Messages that used words like “require” or talked about rules or regulations did not test as well as

messages that propose a more positive relationship with employers.

➢ The top negatives about Republicans focus on Medicare, ACHA and their failure to protect overtime

pay.

o Despite a majority of these voters being pro-choice, they are more concerned about cuts to

infrastructure than cuts to Planned Parenthood.

8

Target Voters15% of the electorate and are those that do not initially vote for the Democratic candidate, but switch and do after messaging.

% of All % Targ

Region

Midwest 40 40

Northeast 35 33

South/West 25 26

GenderMale 47 46

Female 53 54

Age<60 43 46

60+ 57 54

Party ID

Dem 29 26

Ind 37 51

Rep 35 23

Ideology

Liberal 19 14

Moderate 32 38

Conservative 41 32

Households

Gun HH 49 54

Vet HH 39 36

Union HH 32 30

2016 Vote

HRC 37 37

DJT 49 42

3rd Party 6 7

DK/DNV 8 13

Top Three Narratives

Top Three Democratic Positives

Hire American Tax Credit

Infrastructure

Job Training

Top Three Republican Negatives

Economy for All

General Economic

General Economic + Retirement

Medicare

Overtime Pay

AHCA – Straight

While these voters are persuadable, a plurality (42%)

voted for Trump and his approval is only underwater by

four points (46% approve, 50% Disapprove)

50% Voted for Obama in 2012

9

Democrats’ Vote Share Starts In The Mid 30s With This Group; A Troubling Sign With

These Voters – Younger Voters Are Actually More Likely To Vote GOP

Initial Congressional Ballot

33%

26%

39%

32%34%

38%

29%

38%

29%31%

35%

30%

36%

43%

51%

36%

45%42%

39%

51%

36%

46%50%

40%

47%

40%

24% 23%25%

23%25%

23%20%

27%25%

19%

25%22%

24%

All M F <60 60+ <$60k $60k+ MW NE W/S DJTDistrict

HRCDistrict

UnionHHs

Democrat Republican Undecided

InitB: If the November 2018 election for Congress were held today, would you be voting for …?

Midwest was best region

for Democrats

Ballot Among Millennials

(25-34):

Democrat: 41%

Republican: 36%

Undecided: 23%

10

Republicans Start Off With A Ten Point Lead Initially, But The Democrat Moves Ahead

After The Republican Negatives

If the November 2018 election for Congress were held

today, would you be voting for …?

InitB, Q49, Q62: If the November 2018 election for Congress were held today, would you be voting for …?

33%

40%

45%

43%

40%

35%

24%

20% 20%

Initial Ballot Ballot After Democratic Positives Ballot After Republican Negatives

Democratic Candidate Republican [NAMED] Don't Know

11

While The Economy Is Almost Always The Top Issue – Health Care Is Now

What one issue or problem would you say is the most

important thing your Congressman should focus on?

(OPEN END)

Q4: What one issue or problem would you say is the most important thing your Congressman should focus on? (OPEN END)

39%

9%

5%

4%

44%

8%

4%

1%

48%

6%

3%

5%

Health Care

Economy

Immigration

Taxes

All Target Obama + No Vote

12

A Majority Disapprove Of The Job House Democrats And Republicans Are Doing, But

Republicans Are Getting Higher Marks From Their Voters Than Last Year

J2, J3: Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Democrats/Republicans in Congress

are doing?

32%

40%

27%

61%

51%

62%


% Approve % Disapprove

House Dems House GOP

Job Approval

% Approve by Party ID:

Dem: 70%

Ind: 26%

Rep:7%

% Approve by Party ID:

Dem: 13%

Ind: 32%

Rep:66%

Last year only 44% of GOP

voters approved of the job

the House GOP was doing

39% 39% 41%

56%53% 51%



13

Trump’s Approval Is Over 50% And He Has Majority Approval Among Obama/Not

Clinton Voters

Trump Job Approval

52%

46%

51%

56%

49% 50%53%

55%52% 53%

50%

44%

50%

43%40%

47% 47%43%

41%45%

43%

48%

All Target Obama +No Vote

<60 60+ MW NE W/S DJT District HRCDistrict

Union HHs


J1: Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Donald Trump is dong as President?

14

Voters Foremost Want Progress On Economy, Health Care; Top Concern Is About

Unnecessary War

Q22: Thinking about the Trump Presidency, what do you hope he can accomplish? (OPEN END) Q23: Thinking about the Trump Presidency, what

is your greatest concern? (OPEN END)

Accomplish

Thinking about the Trump Presidency, what do you hope he can accomplish? (OPEN END)

Thinking about the Trump Presidency, what is your greatest concern? (OPEN END)

All TargetObama

+No Vote

Stronger economy/more jobs 14% 16% 16%

Health care reform 14% 10% 13%

Immigration/border control 9% 7% 4%

Tax reform/lower taxes 6% 5% 6%

Protection against terrorism 5% 1% 6%

Keep us out of war 5% 6% 5%

I don't think he can do anything/get

anything done5% 6% 2%

Stay off social media/keep his mouth shut 5% 3% 3%

Concern

All TargetObama

+No Vote

He's a warmonger 12% 20% 10%

Democratic opposition/obstructionism 9% 6% 9%

Social media/tweeting too much 8% 8% 8%

Too unpredictable/loose cannon 6% 4% 8%

Health care reform/don't want to repeal ACA 5% 5% 5%

He doesn't know when to say nothing 5% 3% 3%

Nothing is getting done 5% 3% 5%

15

Democrats Have A Small Advantage On Health Care, But Republicans Have Much

More Credibility On Valuing Hard Work And The Economy

Q5-Q18: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 means it applies very well and 1 means it does not apply at all, how well does … apply to the

Democrats/Republicans in Congress?

Solidly Democrats Solidly RepublicansCompetitive

Will help improve the

economy and create jobs

-35

Will do more to

ensure that people

are rewarded for

hard work

-19

Will cut taxes for

the middle class

-15

Will reduce the power of

special interests in

Congress

-11

Will fight for

people like you

-8

Will take the

right approach

on health care

+4

Understand what life

is like in America for

regular people

-3

On a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 means it applies very well and 1 means it does not

apply at all, how well does … apply to the Democrats/Republicans in Congress?

Dem Advantage (Net Applies – Does Not Apply)

16

Democrats’ Weakness On The Economy And Fighting For People Like You Among

The Obama + No Vote Group May Show Why Many Of These Voters Left In 2016

On a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 means it applies very well and 1 means it does not

apply at all, how well does … apply to the Democrats/Republicans in Congress?

Net Applies – Does Not Apply



DEM ADVANTAGE

All TargetObama +

No Vote

Will take the right approach on health care +4 +37 -8

Understand what life is like in America for regular people -3 +43 -12

Will fight for people like you -8 -12 -28

Will reduce the power of special interests in Congress -11 -14 -4

Will cut taxes for the middle class -15 +2 -37

Will do more to ensure that people are rewarded for hard work -19 +7 -29

Will help improve the economy and create jobs -35 -33 -50

17

The Economic, Fighting For People Like You And Reducing The Power Of Special

Interests Attributes Are Most Predictive Of Ballot Performance



Among Those That Say

Applies To Dems (4-5)

Among Those That Say

Applies To Reps (4-5)

Dem Rep DK Marg Dem Rep DK Marg

Will help improve the economy and create jobs 77% 9% 14% 68% 6% 77% 17% -71%

Will fight for people like you 76% 10% 14% 66% 4% 82% 14% -78%

Will reduce the power of special interests in Congress 75% 12% 13% 63% 9% 79% 12% -70%

Will cut taxes for the middle class 62% 15% 23% 47% 7% 72% 21% -65%

Will take the right approach on health care 61% 11% 28% 50% 9% 72% 19% -63%

Will do more to ensure that people are rewarded for hard work 59% 21% 20% 38% 7% 72% 21% -65%

Understand what life is like in America for regular people 58% 17% 25% 41% 9% 74% 17% -65%

18

Voters’ Concerns With Democrats Are Primarily Not Policy Based, There Is Concern

About Being Obstructionist And Not Getting Things Done

Q21: Thinking about Democrats in Congress, what is your greatest concern? (OPEN END)

Thinking about Democrats in Congress,

what is your greatest concern? (OPEN END)

15%

10%

10%

8%

8%

7%

7%

16%

7%

5%

9%

6%

9%

4%

17%

5%

2%

9%

10%

7%

3%

Hyper-partisanship/not working with Republicans

Obstructionist/opposition to Trump

Not enough power/Republicans are in charge

Not getting things done

Ignoring the people/not listening to the people

Health care

Too weak/don't fight hard enough against Republicans


19

Despite Trump’s Appeal With This Group, These Voters Prefer Re-Training Over

Protectionism

Help workers to keep their skills and education up to date so they can get good jobs.

Make it harder for foreign countries to sell products in the US that compete with US made products.

62% 64%

53%

76%

61%

51%

32%29%

42%

20%

32%

41%

All Target Obama + No Vote Democrat Independent Republican

Q19: There is widespread agreement that changes are taking place in the world that impact our economy in the United States. Which of the

following is closer to your view of what we need to do as a country?

There is widespread agreement that changes are taking place in the world that impact our economy in the

United States. Which of the following is closer to your view of what we need to do as a country?

20

Those That Rate Republicans As Better Than Democrats On The Economy Are More

Likely To Prioritize Companies Being Profitable And Growing

Helping companies be more profitable so they can

grow and hire more workers.

Holding companies accountable so they pay taxes

and treat their workers well.

34%

51%48%

23%

All Rep Econ Adv

Q19: There is widespread agreement that changes are taking place in the world that impact our economy in the United States. Which of the following

is closer to your view of what we need to do as a country? Q20: Thinking about the future of the American economy, which would you rather see

politicians work on?

Help workers to keep their skills and education up to

date so they can get good jobs.

Make it harder for foreign countries to sell products

in the US that compete with US made products.

62%

52%

32%

40%

All Rep Econ Adv

“Rep Econ Adv” Voters Say “Will Help Improve The Economy And

Create Jobs” Applies Better To Republicans Than Democrats

21

This Group Of Voters Is More Concerned About Cuts To Infrastructure Than Cuts To

Planned Parenthood

Democratic concerns that the Republicans significantly cut federal funding for Planned Parenthood that

supports breast-cancer screenings and contraception.

Democratic concerns that the Republicans significantly cut federal funding for infrastructure investments

such as roads and bridges that support thousands of good jobs.

34%30% 30%

44%

32%28%

48%

58%

52%49% 49% 47%

All Target Obama + No Vote Democrat Independent Republican

Q51: Democrats have taken strong positions on the recent Republican budget. Which of their positions is most important to you?

Democrats have taken strong positions on the recent Republican budget.

Which of their positions is most important to you?

22

Narrative Test: Focus on Creating Jobs and Skills Needed to Get Them

Economy for All

A candidate who says we need to understand that not everyone wants to go to college. That is

why we need to make sure that skilled workers have the training they need for the jobs that will

make them successful.

General EconomicA candidate who says we need to do more to help create jobs that pay well and has a plan to

do so.

General Economic

+ Retirement

A candidate who says we need to do more to help create jobs that pay well and to make it

easier for people to save for retirement.

AccountabilityA candidate who says we need to do more to hold Wall Street bankers accountable and to make

sure that the rich and corporations pay their fair share in taxes.

Villains

A candidate who says that for too long the middle class has been taken advantage of by

corporations that outsource jobs, pharmaceutical companies that raise prescription drug costs,

and health insurance companies that raise premiums and cut services.

Shared SuccessA candidate who says we need to make sure that companies are successful and growing and

that when companies succeed, their workers are paid good wages.

Q26-Q31: Does this make you …. to vote for this candidate for Congress?

23

Narrative Test: Focus On Enabling People To Get Good Jobs With Good Wages Rises

To The Top

59%

53%

59%

52%

49%

46%

66%

61%

60%

58%

54%

47%

60%

60%

60%

57%

62%

50%

Economy for All

General Economic

General Economic + Retirement

Accountability

Villains

Shared Success


Candidate Narratives% Much More Likely

Q26-Q31: Does this make you …. to vote for this candidate for Congress?

This was the top

message with

Democrats, but

was much

weaker with

Independents

and Republicans

Top message among

Obama + No Vote

24

Job Creation, Wages And Job Training Have The Most Appeal In The Narratives

What was the best part of the visions

you just heard? (OPEN END)

17%

12%

10%

8%

8%

8%

14%

14%

13%

9%

9%

7%

20%

9%

15%

8%

6%

8%

Job creation

Wages/better paying jobs

Accountability/holding Wall Street accountable

Protecting the middle class

Jobs for skilled labor/people who don't go to college

Job training


16% Job

Training/Skills

Based Labor

Among All

Q32: What was the best part of the visions you just heard? (OPEN END)

25

Democratic Positives Move The Ballot To A Tie




33%

40%

45%

43%

40%

35%

24%

20% 20%



26

Democratic Positives: Efforts To Create Good Jobs And Work That Pays Well Rise To

The Top

45%

48%

44%

48%

47%

39%

42%

38%

62%

61%

60%

59%

55%

55%

52%

50%

54%

49%

47%

47%

60%

43%

46%

42%


Infrastructure

Job Training

Job Training – Match Skills and Jobs

Expand Social Security

Profit Sharing – Tax Credits

Punish Contractors

Health Care


Top Democratic Positives Among Target% Much More Likely

Q33-Q48: Does this make you … to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your area?

27

Democratic Positives: 1st Tier (Among Target Voters)

Hire American Tax

Credit

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports giving companies a tax break when they commit to staying

in the U.S., hiring in the U.S., and providing good wages and fair benefits for their workers.

Infrastructure The Democratic candidate for Congress supports increasing funding to upgrade and re-build our roads,

bridges, transit and water infrastructure which will create good jobs.

Job TrainingThe Democratic candidate for Congress supports more funding for job training and retraining programs so

that workers can get the skills they need to compete for new jobs.

Job Training –

Match Skills & Jobs

Skills training facilities are not giving workers the skills they need for the jobs that are currently available. The

Democratic candidate for Congress supports connecting the facilities that do the training and the employers

who have job openings to ensure that job training leads to a good job.

Expand Social

Security

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports strengthening and expanding Social Security for those

who have earned their benefits through a lifetime of hard work and making it easier for people to save for

retirement by giving workers a tax credit to match their retirement contributions.

Profit Sharing – Tax

Credits

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports giving tax credits to companies who share profits with their

workers to boost wages and incentivize workers to help their company be successful.

Punish ContractorsThe Democratic candidate for Congress supports punishing Federal contractors who are caught cheating

taxpayers by putting them in a penalty box – banning them from any federal contracts for five years.

Health CareThe Democratic candidate for Congress supports requiring that all companies offer health insurance to all

employees, whether they are full-time or part-time.


28

Democratic Positives: Bottom 8 (Among Target voters)

40%

37%

36%

35%

32%

33%

28%

23%

47%

46%

42%

42%

42%

41%

28%

19%

42%

42%

42%

37%

37%

32%

24%

29%

Universal Savings

Strengthen Rules

Profit Sharing - Mandatory

Real Jobs

Worker Organization

Maternity/ Paternity Leave

Enforce Rules

Opposes Energy


Bottom Democratic Positives Among Target% Much More Likely


This was the only positive that

made a majority (54%) of

voters less likely to support

the Democratic candidate for

Congress.

29

2nd Tier Democratic Positives (Among Target Voters)

Universal Savings

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports creating a universal retirement savings plan to enable all

workers to save for retirement, making the process simpler and allowing people to take their retirement

savings with them when changing jobs.

Strengthen RulesThe Democratic candidate for Congress supports making foreign trade rules stronger, including rules for

currency manipulation and illegally dumping or under-selling foreign goods.

Profit Sharing –

Mandatory

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports requiring that companies share some of their profits with

their employees directly increasing workers’ wages.

Real Jobs

The Democratic candidate for Congress says we need to change the laws so that companies provide more

long-term, good jobs, and can’t classify as many workers as “independent contractors” to get out of paying

good wages, benefits, and retirement.

Worker Organization

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports making it easier for workers to organize and form a union

so they have more control over their economic situation and can work to raise their wages, get better

benefits and have a secure retirement.

Maternity/Paternity

Leave

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports requiring companies to offer paid maternity and paternity

leave to all full-time employees.

Enforce RulesThe Democratic candidate for Congress supports enforcing the trade rules we already have, including for

currency manipulation and illegally dumping foreign goods.

Opposes EnergyThe Democratic candidate for Congress opposes building new oil and gas pipelines and opposes fracking

for natural gas.


30

Democratic Positives That Focused On Rewarding Good Behavior Were Generally

Stronger Than Those That Punished Bad Actors

45%

39%

42%

36%

35%

28%

62%

55%

52%

42%

42%

28%

54%

43%

46%

42%

37%

24%


Profit Sharing - Tax Credits

Punish Contractors

Profit Sharing - Mandatory

Real Jobs

Enforce Rules


Democratic Positives – Carrots Or Sticks% Much More Likely


31

Democratic Positives – Carrots Or Sticks

Hire American Tax

Credit

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports giving companies a tax break when they

commit to staying in the U.S., hiring in the U.S., and providing good wages and fair benefits for

their workers.

Profit Sharing –

Tax Credits

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports giving tax credits to companies who share

profits with their workers to boost wages and incentivize workers to help their company be

successful.

Punish

Contractors

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports punishing Federal contractors who are caught

cheating taxpayers by putting them in a penalty box – banning them from any federal contracts

for five years.

Profit Sharing -

Mandatory

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports requiring that companies share some of their

profits with their employees directly increasing workers’ wages.

Real Jobs

The Democratic candidate for Congress says we need to change the laws so that companies

provide more long-term, good jobs, and can’t classify as many workers as “independent

contractors” to get out of paying good wages, benefits, and retirement.

Enforce RulesThe Democratic candidate for Congress supports enforcing the trade rules we already have,

including for currency manipulation and illegally dumping foreign goods.


32

Expanding Social Security Was A Stronger Retirement Positive Than Universal

Savings

47%

40%

55%

47%

60%

42%

Expand Social Security

Universal Savings


Democratic Positives – Retirement% Much More Likely


33

Democratic Positives – Retirement

Expand Social

Security

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports strengthening and expanding Social

Security for those who have earned their benefits through a lifetime of hard work and

making it easier for people to save for retirement by giving workers a tax credit to

match their retirement contributions.

Universal

Savings

The Democratic candidate for Congress supports creating a universal retirement

savings plan to enable all workers to save for retirement, making the process simpler

and allowing people to take their retirement savings with them when changing jobs.


34

Infrastructure, Job Training, & Hiring Americans Are Top Positives Across All

Regions; Expanding Social Security Is Top-of-mind In The Midwest And South/West

Top Democratic Positives By Region% Much More Likely

Top Positives – Midwest:

✓ Infrastructure (55%)

✓ Expand Social Security

(53%)

✓ Job Training – Match

Skills & Jobs (51%)

✓ Hire American Tax Credit

(47%)

Top Positives – Northeast:


Skills & Jobs (47%)

✓ Job Training (45%)


✓ Hire American Tax Credit

(44%)

Top Positives – South/West:


Skills & Jobs (46%)

✓ Punish Contractors (46%)


✓ Expand Social Security/


(44%)


35

Democratic Positives Move The Ballot Ten Points, We Make Progress With Older,

Democratic, Independent And Northeastern Voters

Q49: After hearing that, if the November 2018 election for Congress were held today, would you be voting for …?

40%

40%

20%

Democrat

Republican

Don't Know

Ballot After Democratic Positives Where We Make Gains

Initial After Msg Δ

Male 26-51 32-48 +9

Female 39-36 47-34 +10

Midwest 38-36 45-36 +7

Northeast 29-46 38-41 +14

West/South 31-50 37-47 +9

Dem 82-4 92-2 +12

Ind/Oth 25-32 35-29 +13

GOP 1-86 4-84 +5

<60K 38-39 46-35 +12

60K+ 29-51 36-49 +9

<60 32-45 38-43 +8

60+ 34-42 42-38 +12

Trump App 7-72 13-69 +9

Trump Dissap 65-10 75-7 +13

Obama + No Vote 27-35 34-35 +7

36

After Republican Negatives, The Democratic Candidate Moves Into The Lead




33%

40%

45%

43%

40%

35%

24%

20% 20%



37

Republican Negatives: Pocketbook Issues Dominate

58%

58%

56%

56%

53%

53%

47%

51%

51%

43%

78%

76%

74%

73%

64%

63%

63%

60%

58%

51%

60%

63%

61%

61%

51%

51%

46%

44%

46%

37%

Medicare

Overtime Pay

AHCA – Straight

AHCA – Age Tax - Tax cuts

Trade

AHCA – Age Tax - Motivation

Infrastructure

AHCA – Tax Cuts For Rich

Social Security

Wall Street Bill


Republican Negatives% Much Less Likely

Q52-Q61: Does this make you … to vote for the Republican candidate for Congress in your area?

38

Top Republican Negatives Among Target Voters (1 of 2)

MedicareThe Republican candidate for Congress supported a plan to end Medicare as we know it, replacing it

with a voucher system and forcing seniors to pay thousands more in out-of-pocket insurance costs.

Overtime Pay

The Republican candidate for Congress supported allowing corporations to underpay workers and

undermine work place safety. As a result, companies can get away with not paying over-time to

people working more than 40 hours a week. These same corporations can even get rid of work place

incident reports, making it harder for workers to hold them accountable for unsafe conditions.

AHCA – Straight

The Republican candidate for Congress voted for a health care bill that increases out-of-pocket costs

for millions of Americans, raises premiums for people over the age of 50, and strips protections for

people with pre-existing conditions.

AHCA – Age Tax -

Tax cuts

The Republican candidate for Congress voted for a health care plan which according to the AARP

could impose an unfair age tax which would charge people over the age of 50 premiums that are up

to five times more than what younger consumers pay. It does all of this by unfairly shifting more of the

tax burden onto the middle class - while cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans by hundreds of

billions of dollars.

Trade

President Trump promised to end unfair trade deals that hurt American workers. But the Republican

candidate for Congress supported keeping tax breaks for companies that move their facilities

overseas. And they supported a budget plan that would cut taxes for corporations by 30 percent while

raising taxes on middle class families.


39

Top Republican Negatives Among Target Voters (2 of 2)

AHCA – Age Tax -

Motivation

The Republican candidate for Congress voted for a health care plan which according to the AARP

could impose an unfair age tax which would charge people over the age of 50 premiums that are up

to five times more than what younger consumers pay. It should come as no surprise since the

Republican candidate has taken tens of thousands of dollars from insurance and financial interests.

Infrastructure

The Republican candidate for Congress ran on promising to rebuild our infrastructure, but so far there

is no plan. In fact, President Trump’s budget includes billions in cuts to the Department of

Transportation’s programs that help states and local communities invest in infrastructure. This cut

hurts efforts to rebuild our infrastructure and the jobs that come with it.

AHCA – Tax Cuts

For Rich

The Republican candidate for Congress voted for a health care plan that increases out-of-pocket

costs and strips protections for people with preexisting conditions. It does all of this while cutting taxes

for the wealthiest Americans by hundreds of billions of dollars with nothing for middle class families.

Social Security

President Trump promised not to cut Social Security during his campaign. But the Republican

candidate for Congress supported a budget that increases the retirement age to 70 years old, and

even voted to make it more difficult for seniors to receive these hard-earned benefits.

Wall Street Bill

The Republican candidate for Congress voted to eliminate the regulations that were put in place to

hold Wall Street bankers in check following the Great Recession. The Republican plan would gut the

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, ending financial protections for consumers that defend people

from abusive, predatory, and deceptive practices by Wall Street and other big corporations.


40

Republican Negatives: Top Concern – They are Not Working for the People

Q64: From what you have heard, what concerns you the most about the Republican candidate’s views? (OPEN END)

From what you have heard, what concerns you the most

about the Republican candidate’s views? (OPEN END)

All TargetObama +

No Vote

Not working for the people 19% 24% 18%

Health care (non-specific) 11% 10% 8%

Higher costs for health care 6% 8% 5%

Tax breaks for companies that outsource jobs 6% 13% 6%

Cuts to Medicaid/social programs 4% 6% 9%

41

Republican Negatives Move The Democrat Ahead, Notably, We Make More Progress

With Those That Approve Of The Job Trump Is Doing

Q62: After hearing that, if the November 2018 election for Congress were held today, would you be voting for …?

45%

35%

20%

Democrat

Republican

Don't Know

Ballot After Republican Negatives Where We Make Gains

Initial Aft. Pos Aft. Neg Δ

Male 26-51 32-48 37-41 +12

Female 39-36 47-34 52-30 +9

Midwest 38-36 45-36 49-29 +11

Northeast 29-46 38-41 41-38 +6

West/South 31-50 37-47 44-42 +12

Dem 82-4 92-2 92-2 0

Ind/Oth 25-32 35-29 43-23 +14

GOP 1-86 4-84 9-75 +14

<60K 38-39 46-35 51-29 +11

60K+ 29-51 36-49 42-43 +12

<60 32-45 38-43 45-37 +13

60+ 34-42 42-38 45-34 +7

Trump App 7-72 13-69 18-60 +14

Trump Dissap 65-10 75-7 78-7 +3

Obama + No Vote 27-35 34-35 44-28 +17

42

Messaging Implications

➢ We suffer from the lack of an identifiable positive agenda. Without it, voters will turn to Trump for progress. With

it, we can make significant gains.

➢ Our economic deficit is devastating. Voters don’t see special interests as the problem we need to fix.

➢ Success means better jobs that pay well, not a new campaign finance system. Let’s not confuse the end and

the means.

➢ Success means when you work hard you should be able to: get medical care and afford prescription medicine

and have a secure retirement. And when you work harder than your co-workers by doing overtime, you should

get paid for that overtime.

43

Democratic Worldview That Provides Contrast

The goal: Help ensure that anyone who

works hard can get ahead.

The How

Make it easy for anyone to get the training or education they need to get good work. Create a growing economy that creates more good jobs.

Make sure those who already have good work are paid for their work.

Anyone who works should be able to afford health care, medicine, and retirement. Democrats will act

to make sure that is the case.

Bring pressure to bear on successful companies that do not pay their workers well or pay their fair

share in taxes.

44

This Is Not New - It is Fundamental

President Lincoln message to Congress, July 4, 1861:

This is essentially a People's contest. On the side of the Union, it is a struggle for maintaining in the world,

that form, and substance of government, whose leading object is, to elevate the condition of men -- to lift

artificial weights from all shoulders -- to clear the paths of laudable pursuit for all -- to afford all, an

unfettered start, and a fair chance, in the race of life.

Documents

House Majority PAC White Working Class Voter Project ...static.politico.com/f2/08/7cab64cb4a0a91a46b57a9a...4 WWC Voters: Snapshot Some Key Facts 47% Male 53% Female 29% 37% 35% Dem