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Contributors:Lauro FerroniGlobal Head of Hotels & Hospitality [email protected]
Kent MichelsHead of Hotels & Hospitality Research, [email protected]
Eric Gorenstein Analyst, Research & Strategic [email protected]
About JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group
JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group has completed more transactions than any other hotels and hospitality real estate advisor in the world, totaling US$51 billion over the last fi ve years. Between negotiating some of the world’s biggest property deals, the group’s 340-strong global team also executed 4,600 advisory, valuation and asset management assignments. Numbers set the scene, the real story is in the relationships that the fi rm has forged with investors and owner/operators worldwide, who turn to JLL to shape their investment strategies and maximize the value of their assets. These assets sit at the heart of the industry. The fi rm is recognized as the global leader in real estate services across hospitality properties of all shapes and sizes: from luxury, upscale, select service and budget hotels to timeshare and fractional ownership properties; convention centers and mixed-use developments. We work with the most extraordinary, enticing, entertaining and, not to mention profi table, properties in the world.
jll.com/hospitality
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
JLL’s Hotel Market Snapshots report addresses prominent lodging trends in 10 key markets, detailing hotel transaction activity, new supply and operating performance.
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Dallas
Denver
Mexico City
Atlanta
Chicago
Miami
New York
Toronto
4 | Fall 2015
+11% +13%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
14 Y
TD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
In 2014, Atlanta exceeded 13% RevPAR growth, ranking third among the top 25 U.S. lodging markets. The market ranked fi rst in occupancy growth, which increased by more than 8% in 2014. The trend continues in 2015. With double-digit RevPAR growth year-to-date through July, the Atlanta market is on pace for another stellar year.
Atlanta hotel performance
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through July 2015. Data pertain to Atlanta metropolitan area.Source: STR
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Data pertain to Atlanta metropolitan area.Source: STR
Atlanta
Supply pipeline as percent of existing Atlanta hotel stock by segment
Hotel Rooms Price Price per key
Contract date
DoubleTree Atlanta Downtown 312 $42,100,000 $135,000 Aug 15
W Hotel Atlanta Downtown 237 $56,800,000 $240,000 July 15
Homewood/HGI Atlanta Midtown 228 $59,280,000 $260,000 May 15
Sheraton Hotel Atlanta* 763 $52,500,000 $69,000 Dec 14
The Georgian Terrace Atlanta* 326 $61,000,000 $187,000 Mar 14
Noteworthy recent Atlanta market hotel transactions
*Seller advised by JLLSource: JLL
Over the past fi ve years, supply additions to the Atlanta market have been markedly less than the long-term average. From 2010 to 2014, total room supply increased at a compounded annual growth rate of 0.5%. This growth is signifi cantly under the long run average of 2.4%. The current pipeline primarily consists of select service hotels.
0%
0%
1%
6%
6%
10%
18% 6%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Economy
Luxury
Independent
Midscale
U. Upscale
Upscale
U. Midscale
Total Total
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
$500
$400
$0
$40,000
$80,000
$120,000
$160,000
$200,000
$240,000
$280,000
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015 Y
TD
Aver
age P
rice P
er K
ey
Tran
sact
ion
Volu
me (
Milio
ns)
Cross Border Domestic Avg. Price Per Key
The Atlanta market exhibited a subdued level of transaction activity immediately following the global economic downturn in 2008 and 2009. In 2013, transaction volume surged — sparked by the $293 million sale of the Atlanta Marriott Marquis— and surpassed the prior peak set in 2007. Strong lodging market performance in 2014 translated into another solid year of transaction activity this year.
Note: Transaction volume rounded to the neareast hundred million. Excludes transactions for portfolios that involve any properties outside of Atlanta. Year-to-date data through August 2015. Data pertain to Atlanta metropolitan area.Source: JLL
Atlanta hotels transaction volume by source of investment
6 | Fall 2015
Chicago
The Chicago lodging market has enjoyed double-digit year-to-date RevPAR growth following RevPAR growth of 7% in 2014. The city is aggressively seeking to grow business activity and tourism via a $7 billion infrastructure investment program, including a $3 billion modernization of O’Hare International Airport. At the same time, signifi cant offi ce and apartment development—with nearly 4 million square feet of offi ce space and 6,000 rental apartments currently under construction downtown—is driving new demand.
Chicago hotel performance
Chicago supply pipeline as percent of existing hotel stock by submarket
Noteworthy recent Chicago market hotel transactions
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through July 2015. Data pertain to Chicago metropolitan area.Source: STR
*Seller advised by JLL Source: JLL
Hotel Rooms Price Price per key
Contract date
Waldorf Astoria Chicago* 189 $111,900,000 $592,000 June 15
Holiday Inn & Suites Chicago O'Hare* 300 $35,500,000 $118,000 Mar 15
Westin Chicago Northwest Itasca* 408 $27,000,000 $66,000 Mar 15
The Allerton Chicago 443 $81,950,000 $185,000 Mar 14
Sofi tel Chicago Water Tower* 415 $153,000,000 $369,000 Feb 14
+12% +7%
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
14 Y
TD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
3%
7%
12%
0% 5% 10% 15%
Chicago DuPage County, IL
Chicago Airport, IL
Chicago South, IL
Chicago Northwest, IL
Total Chicago Market
Chicago North, IL
Chicago Southwest, IL
Chicago CBD, IL
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Source: STR
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
Chicago hotels transaction volume by source of investment
Hotel transaction activity is shifting to Chicago’s suburban and airport markets in 2015. Acquisition opportunities in the CBD have been limited this year, though strong fundamentals and a vacuum of new full-service development are driving values across all suburban tracts.
Despite a lack of inventory in the CBD, investor enthusiasm for the market—and opportunities available in the suburban and airport areas—remains strong. While offshore capital has been largely absent from Chicago’s hotel market in the past, international groups are now actively seeking opportunities in the region both in the CBD as well as in select suburban markets.
$500 $600 $700
$400
$0 $40,000 $80,000 $120,000 $160,000 $200,000 $240,000 $280,000 $320,000
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800
$1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
2012
20
13
2014
Aver
age P
rice P
er K
ey
Tran
sact
ion
Volu
me (
Milio
ns)
Cross Border Domestic Avg. Price Per Key
Note: Transaction volume rounded to the neareast hundred million. Excludes transactions for portfolios that involve any properties outside of Chicago. Data pertain to Chicago metropolitan area. Source: JLL
8 | Fall 2015
Robust economic growth and surging corporate demand has fueled RevPAR growth in the Dallas metropolitan area. RevPAR growth amounted to 9% in 2014, and the market is poised for another year of impressive performance in 2015 with year-to-date RevPAR growth of 9% as of July.
Dallas hotels performance
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through July 2015. Data pertain to Dallas metropolitan area.Source: STR
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Data pertain to Dallas metropolitan area.Source: STR
Dallas
Supply pipeline as percent of existing Dallas hotel stock by segment
Hotel Rooms Price Price per key
Contract date
Sheraton Hotel Suites Market Center* 251 $17,500,000 $70,000 Sept 15
Le Meridien Dallas by the Galleria 258 $52,000,000 $202,000 June 15
Westin Dallas Park Central 536 $41,600,000 $78,000 Feb 15
Hyatt Regency DFW Airport Dallas* 811 $92,000,000 $113,000 Sept 14
Four Seasons Resort Dallas Las Colinas 431 $150,000,000 $348,000 Feb 14
Noteworthy recent Dallas market hotel transactions
*Seller advised by JLLSource: JLL
In Downtown Dallas, the availability of historic tax credits and tax increment fi nancing is helping to fuel the conversion of underutilized offi ce buildings to hotel and residential uses and revitalize the city’s core. Additionally, corporate relocations throughout the metropolitan area are spurring signifi cant ground-up development activity.
+9% +9%
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
14 Y
TD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
0%
0%
10%
10%
16%
26%
35% 15%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Economy
Luxury
Independent
U. Upscale
Midscale
Upscale
U. Midscale
Total Total
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
$0
$40,000
$80,000
$120,000
$160,000
$200,000
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
2012
20
13
2014
20
15 YT
D
Aver
age P
rice P
er K
ey
Tran
sact
ion
Volu
me (
Milio
ns)
Cross Border Domestic Avg. Price Per Key
Hotel transaction volume surged to about $400 million in 2014 with the sale of the Four Seasons Resort Dallas Las Colinas for nearly $350,000 per key driving much of the increase. Emerging interest from off-shore capital in the market also contributed to the uptick in activity.
Private equity buyers have accounted for the bulk of acquisitions in recent years, having purchased 90% of the hotels that have transacted since 2012. Private equity investors are drawn to the market’s strong growth trajectory, robust economic profi le, business friendly environment, and attractive asset pricing relative to expensive gateway markets.
Note: Excludes transactions for portfolios that involve any properties outside of Dallas. Year-to-date data through August 2015. Data pertain to Dallas metropolitan area.Source: JLL
Dallas hotels transaction volume by source of investment
10 | Fall 2015
Denver ranked second among the top 25 U.S. lodging markets in terms of 2014 RevPAR growth, which amounted to an impressive 16% gain. The market is also continuing to enjoy strong year-to-date RevPAR growth of 10% as of July 2015 despite noticeable recent supply growth—hotel rooms opened just within the last year amount to 4% of market inventory.
Denver hotels performance
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through July 2015. Data pertain to Denver metropolitan area.Source: STR
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Data pertain to Denver metropolitan area.Source: STR
Denver
Dallas Lodging Market Snapshot
Supply pipeline as percent of existing Denver hotel stock by segment
Hotel Rooms Price Price per key
Contract date
Crowne Plaza Denver 364 $72,250,000 $198,000 May 15
Doubletree The Curtis Denver* 336 $97,000,000 $289,000 May 15
Hampton Inn Suites Highlands Ranch 118 $16,200,000 $137,000 Feb 15
Towneplace Suites Denver Area Portfolio* 584 $76,250,000 $131,000 Jan 15
Sheraton Hotel Denver Tech Center 262 $26,125,000 $100,000 Dec 14
Noteworthy recent Denver market hotel transactions
*Seller advised by JLLSource: JLL
+10% +16%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
14 Y
TD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
0%
0%
7%
9%
14%
21%
22% 14%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Economy
Luxury
Midscale
Independent
U. Midscale
U. Upscale
Upscale
Total Total
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
After holding steady at about $200 million per year for each of the past three years, Denver’s hotel transaction volume—having already surpassed that threshold year-to-date—is poised to increase materially in 2015. The market is attracting signifi cant interest from private equity groups, and strong underlying demand fundamentals are contributing to attractive price per key appreciation.
Note: Transaction volume rounded to the neareast hundred million. Excludes transactions for portfolios that involve any properties outside of Denver.Year-to-date data through August 2015. Data pertain to Denver metropolitan area.Source: JLL
Denver hotels transaction volume by source of investment
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
YTD
Aver
age P
rice P
er K
ey
Tran
sact
ion
Volu
me (
Milio
ns)
Cross Border Domestic Avg. Price Per Key
12 | Fall 2015
+9% +10%
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
2000
20
01
2002
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03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
14 Y
TD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
Large hotels in Los Angeles will likely face higher labor costs going forward as the minimum wage for employees at hotels with at least 300 rooms increased to $15.37 in July 2015 for non-union properties; non-union hotels with at least 150 rooms will also be subject to the same requirement in 2016.
Fortunately for hotel owners, the Los Angeles market has benefi ted from signifi cant top-line growth with 10% RevPAR growth in 2014 and 9% RevPAR growth year-to-date July 2015. As a result, hotels appear to be well poised to absorb any cost increases, and investors have thus far exhibited no signs of waning interest in the market.
Los Angeles hotels performance
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through July 2015. Data pertain to Los Angeles metropolitan area.Source: STR
*Seller advised by JLL Source: JLL
Los Angeles hotels transaction volume by buyer type (2014)
Noteworthy recent Los Angeles market hotel transactions
Source: JLL
Los Angeles
Hotel Rooms Price Price per key
Contract date
Hilton Pasadena* 296 $70,564,000 $238,000 Apr 15
Ace Hotel Downtown* 182 $103,000,000 $566,000 Apr 15
Luxury Collection SLS Beverly Hills 297 $195,000,000 $657,000 Apr 15
Westin Pasadena 350 $142,500,000 $407,000 Mar 15
Marriott Los Angeles Airport* 1,004 $147,500,000 $147,000 Dec 14
9%
9%
7%
7%
59%
9% Institutional
Developer
HNWI
Hotel Operator
Private Equity
REIT
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
Los Angeles hotel transaction volume by source of investment
Note: Transaction volume rounded to the neareast hundred million. Excludes transactions for portfolios that involve any properties outside of Los Angeles. Year-to-date data through August 2015. Data pertain to Los Angeles metropolitan area. Source: JLL
Los Angeles achieved record-setting hotel transaction volume of nearly $1 billion in 2014 and is on track to exceed that amount in 2015 with $700 million in transactions through May 15.
Supply growth in the Los Angeles market appears generally moderate with the exception of the luxury branded segment, where the total supply pipeline amounts to about 18% of existing stock. One large property—the InterContinental Los Angeles Downtown—is driving much of the increase with few other luxury hotels in the pipeline.
$700
$1,000
$800
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800
$1,000 $1,200
2005
20
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2014
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15 YT
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Aver
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Cross Border Domestic Avg. Price Per Key
14 | Fall 2015
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Data pertain to Miami metropolitan area.Source: STR
MiamiChicago Lodging Market Snapshot
Despite the impact of the last recession, Miami has sustained the second highest level of RevPAR growth among U.S. gateway markets over the past 10 years, registering average annual growth of more than 6% during this time. Softening growth in a number of Latin American economies and U.S. dollar appreciation have hardly hurt the market, as RevPAR growth has accelerated to 8% through July 2015 in a strong sign of the market’s resilience. Expect the retiring baby boomer generation and strong domestic economy to continue to fuel long-term demand growth.
Miami hotel performance
Supply pipeline as percent of existing Miami hotel stock by segment
Noteworthy recent Miami market hotel transactions
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through July 2015. Data pertain to Miami metropolitan area.Source: STR
*Seller advised by JLL Source: JLL
Hotel Rooms Price Price per key
Contract date
Sheraton Hotel Miami Airport* 405 $69,595,000 $172,000 June 15
Ritz-Carlton Key Biscayne (67% stake)
302 $219,100,000 $1,000,000 May 15
The Royal Palm Miami Beach* 393 $278,000,000 $707,000 Mar 15
Edition Miami 294 $230,000,000 $782,000 Feb 15
The Setai Miami Beach 135 $90,000,000 $667,000 Dec 14
+8% +7%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
2000
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2002
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20
05
2006
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2008
20
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2012
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13
2014
20
14 Y
TD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
2%
6%
7%
9%
24%
30%
57% 16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Luxury
U. Upscale
Independent
Economy
Midscale
U. Midscale
Upscale
Total Total
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
$800 $900
$1,100
$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2005
20
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2007
20
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2009
20
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2011
2012
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13
2014
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15 YT
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Aver
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Cross Border Domestic Avg. Price Per Key
Miami hotels transaction volume by source of investment
Hotel transaction volume has increased steadily during each of the past four consecutive years, reaching about $900 million in 2014. With over $1 billion in hotel acquisitions recorded through August 2015, we expect this year to mark the fi fth consecutive year of increasing transaction volume.
Miami’s stature as a key gateway market, serving as the primary link between the U.S. and Latin America, has fueled strong demand growth and investor interest in the market in recent years. Miami ranks among the most highly sought-after markets by off-shore investors, attracting nearly $500 million in investment from Asian, Middle Eastern and South American investors since 2011. International tourists represent about half of total overnight visitors to Miami.
Note: Transaction volume rounded to the neareast hundred million. Excludes transactions for portfolios that involve any properties outside of Miami.Year-to-date data through August 2015. Data pertain to Miami metropolitan area. Source: JLL
16 | Fall 2015
Following the sale of the Waldorf Astoria, New York has surpassed London as the world’s most liquid hotel investment market with $8 billion in transactions since 2013. In 2014, off-shore capital drove nearly 50% of New York hotel transactions.
Year-to-date transaction volume in 2015 is already materially higher than last year’s level, in large part due to $2.8 billion in offshore acquisitions involving trophy properties such as the Waldorf Astoria New York.
New York hotels performance
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through July 2015. Data pertain to New York metropolitan area.Source: STR
-2% +2%
$0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 $240 $280
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
2000
20
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2002
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2004
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2006
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2008
20
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2010
20
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2012
20
13
2014
20
14 Y
TD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
Super Bowl in
Feb 2014
Supply pipeline as percent of existing NY hotel stock by segment
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Data pertain to New York metropolitan area. Source: STR
7%
9%
15%
20%
30%
47%
58%
22%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
U. Upscale
Luxury
Independent
Economy
U. Midscale
Midscale
Upscale
Total
Hotel transaction volume:15 most liquid global markets (2013 - Q1 2015)
$0
$1,00
0
$2,00
0
$3,00
0
$4,00
0
$5,00
0
$6,00
0
$7,00
0
$8,00
0
$9,00
0 New York
London Singapore
Tokyo San Francisco
Hawaii Paris
Los Angeles Shanghai
Miami Sydney Chicago
Fort Lauderdale Orlando
San Diego
Transaction Volume (Millions) Source: JLL
New York
Total
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
New York hotels transaction volume by source of investment
Note: Transaction volume rounded to the neareast hundred million. Excludes transactions for portfolios that involve any properties outside of New York.Year-to-date data through August 2015. Data pertain to New York metropolitan area. Source: JLL
The strength of the U.S. economy and global confi dence in the U.S. dollar—in contrast to many other global markets—accounts for off-shore capital’s pursuit of New York hotel assets. International investors are attracted to the security and long-term growth potential associated with real estate assets in America’s largest and most cosmopolitan city.
$3,100 $2,800
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$1,000,000
$0 $500
$1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
2012
20
13
2014
20
15 YTD
Aver
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Volu
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Cross Border Domestic Avg. Price Per Key
18 | Fall 2015
The active supply pipeline for the San Francisco lodging market remains tight at less than 2,000 new hotel rooms, representing less than 4% of existing rooms inventory. While the redevelopment of existing inventory in San Francisco potentially adds another two percentage points to the pipeline if included among the tally, it remains lower than that for most major markets in the U.S. supply growth is expected to remain minimal given the signifi cant cost and lengthy approval process required for new development in the city.
The opening of a 174-room Hampton Inn in 2015 will mark San Francisco’s fi rst new hotel in several years. There are a few new hotels planned for the city over the next several years, but most new development will occur in the surrounding San Francisco/San Mateo metropolitan area.
San Francisco hotels performance
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through July 2015. Data pertain to San Francisco metropolitan area.Source: STR
Supply pipeline as percent of existing San Francisco hotel stock by segment
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Data pertain to San Francisco metropolitan area.Source: STR
San Francisco
+11% +13%
$0 $30 $60 $90 $120 $150 $180 $210
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
14 Y
TD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
San Francisco’s lodging market has achieved double-digit RevPAR growth during each of the last four consecutive years—and 2015 appears poised to mark the fi fth consecutive year with year-to-date RevPAR growth of 11% through July. Strong demand fundamentals—driven by a thriving local economy and booming technology sector—coupled with constrained supply growth are expected to continue to fuel strong RevPAR growth in the market.
0%
0%
1%
2%
2%
9%
27% 4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Midscale
Luxury
Independent
U. Upscale
Economy
U. Midscale
Upscale
Total Total
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
San Francisco hotels transaction volume by source of investment
Note: Transaction volume rounded to the neareast hundred million. Excludes transactions for portfolios that involve any properties outside of San Francisco.Year-to-date data through August 2015. Data pertain to SF metropolitan area. Source: JLL
Transaction volume through August 2015 has been exceptional with over $1 billion in hotel acquisitions due to blockbuster deals such as the sale of the Mandarin Oriental San Francisco for $1 million per key.
REITs accounted for more than half of San Francisco hotel acquisitions in 2014 and have remained active in 2015, representing approximately one-third of buyers year-to-date. REITs and other long term investors seeking high-quality assets in markets safeguarded with high barriers to entry are targeting acquisitions in San Francisco.
Note: Transaction volume rounded to the neareast hundred million. Excludes
$900
$1,400
$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800
$1,000 $1,200 $1,400
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
2012
20
13
2014
20
15 YT
D
Aver
age P
rice P
er K
ey
Tran
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Volu
me (
Milio
ns)
Cross Border Domestic Avg. Price Per Key
20 | Fall 2015
Having reached 65% in 2014, hotel occupancy in Mexico City is nearing its structural ceiling. The market remains a primarily commercial destination with lower demand for hotel accommodations during the weekend but very high mid-week occupancy. Expect ADR gains to drive continued strong RevPAR growth in 2015.
Mexico City hotels performance
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through June 2015. Data pertain to upscale through luxury branded hotel product in the Mexico City metropolitan area. Source: STR
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Data pertain to Mexico City metropolitan area. Source: STR
Mexico City
Supply pipeline percent of existing Mexico City hotel stock by segment
While the supply pipeline implies the potential for double-digit growth in some market segments, the city’s existing room supply is relatively small. Mexico City’s stock of approximately 30,000 quality hotel rooms is comparable in size to secondary markets in the U.S., despite its status among the ten largest metropolises in the world with a population of over 20 million people—underscoring the city’s capacity for future development.
Hotel Rooms Price Price per key
Contract date
Hilton Mexico City Santa Fe* 260 $54,000,000 $208,000 Sep 14
Melia Mexico Reforma† 489 $60,000,000 $123,000 Dec 13
Holiday Inn Mexico Coyoacan* 214 $29,100,000 $136,000 Sep 13
Hilton Mexico City Reforma* 458 $90,800,000 $198,000 Jun 13
(Former) Hotel Nikko Mexico 756 $190,000,000 $251,000 May 12
Noteworthy Recent Mexico City Market Hotel Transactions
*Denotes property acquired by a REIT †Seller advised by JLL Source: JLL
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data
+6% +4%
$0
$40
$80
$120
$160
$200
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014
YTD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
0%
0%
1%
13%
14%
15%
15% 5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Economy
U. Upscale
Independent
U. Midscale
Midscale
Luxury
Upscale
Total Total
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
Mexico City hotels transaction volume by buyer type (2012-2014)
The proliferation of REIT-like structures (known as FIBRAs)—essentially absent from Mexico’s hotel investment landscape as recently as a few years ago—has considerably altered the dynamics of Mexico’s hotel investment market. REITs have snapped up available product in recent years, accounting for one-third of acquisitions and contributing substantially to improved market liquidity.
Following a strong year for transactions in 2013, Mexico City saw only one sale in 2014, the Hilton Mexico City Santa Fe. A lack of high-quality hotel product available for sale explains last year’s lower transaction volume. Institutional investors’ demand for institutional quality assets in Mexico City remains strong, however, leading them to pursue new development as a means to gain entry in the market.
Source: JLLSource: JLL
18%
37% 12%
34%
Developer
Hotel Operator
Private Equity
REIT
22 | Fall 2015
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Data pertain to Toronto metropolitan area.Source: STR
Toronto
Toronto’s lodging market achieved RevPAR growth in excess of 7% in 2014, outperforming the rest of Canada by more than one percentage point. The Toronto metropolitan area is benefi ting from steady growth in the city’s fi nancial and professional services industries, which account for more than one-third of the economy. Additionally, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar is boosting Canadian exports, many of which fl ow through Toronto.
Given Toronto’s positive outlook in the context of some turbulence in Canada’s more energy-reliant and new supply-laden western markets, hotel transaction activity has shifted in Toronto's direction, which has a more service-focused economy.
Hotel supply growth in Canada’s largest city remains muted. The active development pipeline for Toronto suggests that its hotel stock is poised for low single-digit growth—in contrast to a number of large U.S. cities that are facing double-digit supply growth over the next several years.
Supply growth for branded hotel product is especially constrained, as nearly half of the active development pipeline is comprised of independent product. Given a tight supply outlook and strong market fundamentals, expect continued growth in top-line performance for Toronto area hotels.
Toronto hotel performance
Supply pipeline percent of existing Toronto hotel stock by segment
Note: Percentages denote RevPAR growth in 2014 and 2015 YTD. Year-to-date data through July 2015. Data pertain to Toronto metropolitan area. ADR and RevPAR are illustrated in Canadian dollars. Source: STR
+7% +5%
$80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014
YTD
2015
YTD
Occ ADR RevPAR
0%
0%
0%
2%
3%
6%
14% 5%
0% 5% 10% 15%
Economy
Midscale
Luxury
U. Upscale
Upscale
U. Midscale
Independent
Total Total
JLL | Hotel Market Snapshots
Toronto hotels supply pipeline by segment
Canada’s highly regarded regulatory system, stable economy, and well educated labor force are credited with the ability of its key fi nancial center to grow fi nancial services employment by more than 30% since 2002, while other key fi nancial hubs such as New York and Chicago have suffered declining employment in this sector. In fact, Moody’s has projected that Toronto will surpass London in fi nancial services employment by the end of the decade.
Note: Excludes unnamed hotels as well as deferred, unconfi rmed, and abandoned projects. Data pertain to Toronto metropolitan area.Source: STR
21%
14%
12%
53%
U. Midscale
Upscale
U. Upscale
Independent
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Contributors:Lauro FerroniGlobal Head of Hotels & Hospitality [email protected]
Kent MichelsHead of Hotels & Hospitality Research, [email protected]
Eric Gorenstein Analyst, Research and Strategic [email protected]
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