Home Page - Bolloré Logistics - COVID-19 MARKET OUTLOOK · 2021. 4. 20. · WORLD CONTAINER INDEX (WCI) –15/04 The composite index slid 0.1% this week, however, remains 220.7%

COVID-19 MARKET

OUTLOOK

19/04/2021 – V15

2

KEY POINTS

Source: , WTO, World Bank, IMF, Alphaliner, Seabury, DrewryCOVID 19 - MARKET OUTLOOK

The IMF is now projecting a stronger recovery in 2021 and 2022 for the global economy compared to our

previous forecast, with growth projected to be 6 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. Volume of world

merchandise trade is expected to increase by 8.0% in 2021 after having fallen 5.3% in 2020, before likely

slowing to 4.0% in 2022, according to the WTO.

Air cargo faces a continuing capacity shortage Freighters highly utilized but much capacity in passenger fleet is

grounded. Freighter capacity remains stable at double-digit growth rates, with 26% growth for airline freighter

and 34% for express freighter, in the period between 22/03 – 04/04, compared to the same time in 2019.

Travelers' choice of destinations for summer 2021 has changed in comparison to where people traveled in 2019,

summer air travel will be closer to home. The potential loss is significant: long-haul flights represented 32% of

passenger ticket revenues in 2019.

32 cancelled sailings have been announced between weeks 16 and 19 on major trades - Transpacific,

Transatlantic and Asia-North Europe & Med, out of a total of 483 scheduled sailings, representing a 7%

cancellation rate.

Delivery delays will be seen in Europe and North America while extra surcharges, associated with shortage of

equipment and premiums to secure space on the vessels are enforced by the Alliances.

There has been little change to the congestion in US ports. Equipment shortages and lack of space to persist at

least until the end of Q2.

3IATA COVID 19 - MARKET OUTLOOK

AIR FREIGHT – PASSENGER BOOKINGS

Last updated ; 19/04

The chart shows a breakdown of bookings for

travel between May-September by destination

region, bookings made before 20 March 2019 vs.

2021.

In comparison to summer 2019, North American

tourists book travel more within the region and less

to Europe or Asia this summer. South and Central

America is receiving fewer bookings from Europe

and more from North America.

From most regions, long-haul passenger travel

might be limited for a long time, not least because

the sustainability of these long-haul services greatly

relied on business travelers in the past who

continue to be largely absent. On routes with

sufficient demand, cargo can keep some of these

services in the air but at drastically reduced

frequencies. The potential loss is significant: long-

haul flights represented 32% of passenger ticket

revenues in 2019.

4WorldACD

COVID 19 - MARKET OUTLOOK

AIR FREIGHT – MARKET TRENDS (29/03– 04/04)


In week 14 (29/03– 04/04), worldwide volume decreased by 4% compared with the previous week.

Worldwide capacity increased by 0.1%.

On a regional level, the origin Central & South America did best with a volume increase of 4% week-

over-week, while origin Europe showed the largest decrease (-13%).

The average worldwide yield/rate in week 14 increased compared with week 13.

5Seabury


Air cargo capacity declined 12%

compared to the same weeks in 2019.

Transpacific (+4%) showed a strong

increase in capacity in the last two

weeks.

AIR FREIGHT – MARKET TRENDS (22/03 – 04/04)

Note: Arrow thickness representative of May 2020 capacity, direct flights only; all flows indicate region-to-region capacity; regions are indicated by color coding; all dates

measured in UTC; 1) Total cargo capacity includes international widebody passenger and all freighter flights; 2) Comparing capacity between 22 Mar- 4 Apr 2021 to capacity the

same weeks in 2019; Source: Seabury Cargo Capacity Tracking database, Seabury Cargo analysis (April 2021)


6Seabury


Belly capacity is almost as high as it was

during the peak increase at the end of

2020. Freighter capacity remains stable

at double-digit growth rates, with 26%

growth for airline freighter and 34% for

express freighter.

AIR FREIGHT – MARKET TRENDS (22/03 – 04/04)

Note: Direct international capacity only; All freighters and widebody passenger aircraft only, Date measured in UTC time; 1) Comparing capacity between 22 Mar - 4 Apr 2021 to

capacity 8 – 21 Mar 2021; 2) Comparing capacity between 22 Mar - 4 Apr 2021 to capacity the same weeks in 2019


7IATA COVID 19 - MARKET OUTLOOK

AIR FREIGHT – CARGO CAPACITY


• Cargo faces a continuing capacity shortage

• Freighters highly utilized but much capacity in passenger fleet is grounded

8

SEA FREIGHT – CANCELLED SAILINGS – 16/04

Across the major trades: Transpacific,

Transatlantic and Asia-North Europe & Med, 32

cancelled sailings have been announced

between weeks 16 and 19, out of a total of 483

scheduled sailings, representing a 7%

cancellation rate. Over the next 4 weeks, The

Alliance has announced 15.5 cancellations,

followed by Ocean Alliance and 2M with 7.5 and

4 cancellations, respectively.

There is little sign of positive change on the

horizon, with shippers continuing to face supply

chain disruption and equipment shortages in the

coming weeks as carriers revise their port

rotations to restore schedule integrity.

Inevitably, delivery delays will be seen in Europe

and North America while extra surcharges,

associated with shortage of equipment and

premiums to secure space on the vessels are

enforced by the Alliances.

Drewry COVID 19 - MARKET OUTLOOKLast updated ; 19/04

9

SEA FREIGHT – WORLD CONTAINER INDEX (WCI) – 15/04

The composite index slid 0.1% this week,

however, remains 220.7% higher than a

year ago.

The average composite index of the WCI,

assessed by Drewry for year-to-date, is

$5,108 per 40ft container, which is $3,320

higher than the five-year average of $1,788

per 40ft container.

Rates on Shanghai-Rotterdam and those

on Shanghai-Genoa increased.

Drewry COVID 19 - MARKET OUTLOOKLast updated ; 13/04

The World Container Index is a composite of container freight rates on 8 major routes to/from the US, Europe and Asia, assessed by Drewry.

10

SEA FREIGHT – IMPACT OF SUEZ CANAL BLOCKAGE ON CAPACITY

Sea-Intelligence COVID 19 - MARKET OUTLOOKLast updated ; 13/04

Looking at Asia-Europe, on Asia-MED, in the coming weeks, export capacity available in the market in Asia is not materially impacted,

but then in week 19 we see a major impact, as the batch of delayed vessels will fail to show up in Asia on time and hence lead to

substantial blank sailings. On Asia-NEUR, the ripples will gradually get larger until they reach a crescendo in week 21 with a 24% drop

in capacity

On MED-Asia, the immediate impact is a sharp dip in export

capacity of 60% essentially in the coming week, but this is

followed by an equally sharp spike thereafter, as the delayed

vessels finally make it to their designated ports. Then there is a

f w b b b “ w v ”

the ripple effects of the impact slowly evaporate.

On NEUR-Asia, the exporters are facing an imminent drop in

export capacity of almost 80% - followed by two weeks of

much higher than usual outbound capacity. But an imminent

sharp drop in export capacity will most certainly leave a

significant amount of European export cargo stranded in

Europe for a week or two until it can be moved.

11Marine Traffic


SEA FREIGHT – PORT CONGESTION, WEEK 16


Origin Port

Median Time

at anchorage

(days)

Time at

anchorage

confidence

score

Median Time

at port (days)

Time at port

confidence

score

CHINA

Dalian 0.8 High 0.8 HighShanghai 1.3 Medium 0.7 MediumQingdao 0.5 High 0.9 HighNingbo 1.2 High 0.8 HighYantian 1.3 Low 0.8 Low

Hong Kong 0.4 High 0.5 High

NORTH

ASIA

Tokyo 0.3 Medium 0.4 Medium

Yokohama 0.4 High 0.4 HighBusan 0.3 Low 0.9 Low

Kaohsiung 0.3 High 0.7 High

SOUTH EAST

ASIA

Manila 1 Low 0.8 LowBangkok 0.9 Medium 1 Medium

Laem Chabang 0.2 High 0.5 High

Ho Chi Minh 0.5 High 1 High

Port Klang 0.4 Low 1.2 LowSingapore 1.2 High 0.8 High

PACIFICSydney* 3 Medium 3 Medium

Auckland 2.6 Medium 2.2 Medium

MEDIAN TIME AT

ANCHORAGE = The

median time all vessels

calling at this port, that

have departed, have

spent at anchorage.

CONFIDENCE SCORE =

How confident you can

be that the time the

figures can be used to

forecast port congestion

MEDIAN TIME AT PORT

= The median time all

vessels calling at this

port, that have departed,

have spent at the port

Sydney* = Week 15

12Marine Traffic


SEA FREIGHT – PORT CONGESTION OUTLOOK – WEEK 16


Origin Port

Median Time at

anchorage

(days)

Time at

anchorage

confidence

score

Median Time at

port (days)

Time at port

confidence

score

US WEST

COAST

Prince Rupert 4.4 High 2.2 HighVancouver 4.2 Low 2.7 Low

Oakland 2.2 Low 3.1 LowLos Angeles 3.5 Low 3.6 Low

US EAST

COAST

New York 0.9 Low 1.6 LowSavannah 0.5 Low 1.4 Low

CHILIValparaiso 3 Low 1.1 Low

San Antonio 1.8 Low 1.3 Low

EUROPE

Rotterdam 1 Low 1.2 LowAntwerp 0.8 High 1.6 HighHamburg 1.1 High 1.3 High

Felixstowe Low 0.9 LowLe Havre 0.9 Medium 1 Medium

AFRICA

Durban 0.6 Low 3.3 LowCape town 0.3 High 2 High

Abidjan 1.5 High 2.5 HighPort Said 0.1 Low 1.1 Low

Apapa 0.6 High 3 High

MEDIAN TIME AT

ANCHORAGE = The

median time all vessels

calling at this port, that

have departed, have

spent at anchorage.

CONFIDENCE SCORE =

How confident you can

be that the time the

figures can be used to

forecast port congestion

MEDIAN TIME AT PORT

= The median time all

vessels calling at this

port, that have departed,

have spent at the port

13

SEA FREIGHT - CAPACITY OUTLOOK (WEEK 15 – WEEK 26)

HighlightsUpcoming 12

weeks (Y/Y)

Asia

-

North Europe

In the Asia-North Europe trade lane the weekly capacity increases significantly in week 15 and 18

and decreases drastically in week 17. On the backhaul, the weekly capacity increases significantly in

week 18, and decreases drastically in week 23 and 25.

26.7%

Asia

-

Mediterranean

In the Asia-Mediterranean trade lane the weekly capacity increases significantly in week 15 and

decreases drastically in week 16. On the backhaul, the weekly capacity increases significantly in

week 15 and 16 and decreases drastically in week 18 and 22.

24.1%

Asia

-

North America East Coast

In the Asia-NAEC trade lane the weekly capacity increases drastically in week 15 and decreases

significantly in week 16.39.6%

Asia

-

North America West Coast

In the Asia-NAWC trade lane the weekly capacity increases drastically in week 15 and 24 and

decreases significantly in week 16. On the backhaul, the weekly capacity increases significantly in

week 20, and decreases drastically in week 23.

56.6%

Asia

-

East Coast South America

In the Asia-ECSA trade lane the weekly capacity increases drastically in week 17 and 19 and

decreases significantly in week 18. On the backhaul, the weekly capacity increases drastically in

week 15 and 22 and decreases significantly in week 16.

41.6%

Sea Intelligence

COVID 19 - MARKET OUTLOOKLast updated ; 19/04

14Sea Intelligence

HighlightsUpcoming 12

weeks (Y/Y)


-


In the NAEC-ECSA trade lane the weekly capacity decreases significantly in week 17 and 19 and

increases drastically in week 20. In the ECSA-NAEC trade lane the weekly capacity increases

drastically in week 16 and 19, and decreases significantly in week 18 and 20

22.2%

North Europe

-


In the North Europe-ECSA trade lane the weekly capacity increases drastically in week 15, 16 and

18. decreases significantly in week 17. In the ECSA-North Europe trade lane the weekly capacity is

stable around 20,700 TEU.

1.8%

North Europe

-


In the North Europe-NAEC trade lane the weekly capacity decreases drastically in week 17 and

increases significantly in week 21. In the NAEC-North Europe trade lane the weekly capacity

increases drastically in week 19 and decreases significantly in week 20.

22.9%

Mediterranean

-


In the MED-NAEC trade lane the weekly capacity decreases drastically in week 21 and increases

significantly in week 22. In the NAEC-MED trade lane the weekly capacity increases significantly in

week 15 and decreases drastically in week 17 and 22.

9.6%

Europe-

North America West Coast

In the Europe-NAWC trade lane the weekly capacity decreases significantly in week 17 and

increases drastically in week 18. In the NAWC-Europe trade lane the weekly capacity increases

drastically in week 16 and decreases significantly in week 17.

4.0%


SEA FREIGHT - CAPACITY OUTLOOK (WEEK 15 – WEEK 26)


Documents

Home Page - Bolloré Logistics - COVID-19 MARKET OUTLOOK · 2021. 4. 20. · WORLD CONTAINER INDEX (WCI) –15/04 The composite index slid 0.1% this week, however, remains 220.7%