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Monthly Distribution This report examines all publicly traded home builders (mid-, small-, and micro-cap) based on their geographic footprint and includes the following: Builder rankings by past market performance, current market conditions, and forecasted market growth Location comparisons of builders based on the builders’ markets’ fundamentals (HCRI) and submarket desirability Builder metrics , such as active community count changes, orders, and cancellations Overview of each builder evaluating market strengths, weaknesses, median price in the markets and price appreciation, employment growth, and permits, compared with an average of all builders What Questions Will This Report Help You Answer? Which builders should report the greatest revenue growth if they kept pace with their markets? Which builders should have the best quarter in terms of orders and raising price? Which builders are in the best geographies based on our forecasts? How do community counts change quarterly by builder and by region? Which builders are in the most desirable submarkets with the best market fundamentals? Home Builder Analysis and Forecast

Home Builder - John Burns Real Estate Consulting · 2020. 8. 13. · • Overview of each builder evaluating market strengths, weaknesses, median price in the markets and price appreciation,

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Page 1: Home Builder - John Burns Real Estate Consulting · 2020. 8. 13. · • Overview of each builder evaluating market strengths, weaknesses, median price in the markets and price appreciation,

Monthly DistributionThis report examines all publicly traded home builders (mid-,small-,andmicro-cap)basedontheirgeographicfootprint and includes the following:

• Builderrankingsbypastmarketperformance,currentmarketconditions,andforecastedmarketgrowth

• Location comparisons of builders based on the builders’ markets’ fundamentals (HCRI) and submarket desirability

• Builder metrics, such as active community count changes,orders,andcancellations

• Overview of each builder evaluating market strengths,weaknesses,medianpriceinthemarketsandpriceappreciation,employmentgrowth,andpermits,comparedwithanaverageofallbuilders

What Questions Will This Report Help You Answer?• Which builders should report the

greatest revenue growth if they kept pace with their markets?

• Which builders should have the best quarter in terms of orders and raising price?

• Which builders are in the best geographies based on our forecasts?

• How do community counts change quarterly by builder and by region?

• Which builders are in the most desirable submarkets with the best market fundamentals?

Home BuilderAnalysis and Forecast

Page 2: Home Builder - John Burns Real Estate Consulting · 2020. 8. 13. · • Overview of each builder evaluating market strengths, weaknesses, median price in the markets and price appreciation,

HBAF

-image from slide 9 “H:\HBAF\_Archive_(Client-Reports)\2015\2015-02-February\Executive-Summary\JBREC-HBAF-ExecSum-2015-02.pptx”

-Chart from “TTM Slide” “H:\HBAF\Irvine - HBAF\builder market share.xlsx”

-“Charts” tab, use the chart in Y7-AF21 ”H:\HBAF\_Archive_(Client-Reports)\2015\2015-03-March\Data-Files\MarketGrowth-Builder.xlsx”

-“Page 8” tab, use the chart starting in rows A59-H91 ”H:\HBAF\_Archive_(Client-Reports)\2015\2015-03-March\Data-Files\RegExec-SumChartsBuilder.xlsx”

HOME BUILDER ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

Public Home Builders Have a Small Share of Communities in the Southeast, Suggesting M&A Activity Will Be Centered around This Region

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Jan-15, Pub: Feb-15)

Dallas47%

Houston55%

Denver65%

Austin47%

Orlando73%

Washington,DC: 46%

Charlotte42%

Atlanta36%

Seattle51% Chicago

33%

LasVegas69%

Los Angeles and

OrangeCounty

56%

Minneapolis60%

Raleigh33%

Tampa51%

% of Total Active Selling Communities = < 50%

% of Total Active Selling Communities = 51% to 64%

% of Total Active Selling Communities = > 65%

Riverside-SanBernardino

67%

Public Builder Market Share by Number of Actively Selling Communities

Phoenix64%