HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS ISSUE: Updated to market close on ... · Last Close $2.2445 CAN Natural Gas 594 3.12% 445 529 D/D Change 3.94% Production (BCF/Day) Current Mo/Mo Change Last Year

August 6, 2020

Updated to market close on Current Previous Month Monthly Change

August 5th, 2020 Value Value Percent Direction

Edmonton Mixed Sweet (C$/bbl)(3) $51.45 $55.32 (7.0%)

Western Canadian Select (C$/bbl)(3) $40.36 $44.16 (8.6%)

AECO (C$/GJ)(3) $2.17 $1.86 16.5%

US$/C$(3) $0.7529 $0.7394 1.8%

Monthly A&D Transaction Value ($MM)(1)(4) $691.40 $0.00 n.a.

Monthly A&D Transaction Count(1) 3 0 n.a.

Canadian Rig Count 46 17 170.6%

Canadian Oil/Cond Production (MMbbl/d)* 2.1 2.7 (21.4%)

Canadian Gas Production (Bcf/d)* 17.9 18.6 (3.8%)

Canadian Gas Storage (Bcf) 594.2 518.5 14.6%

$2.6

$8.0

$5.9

$2.2

$1.1

$2.1

$0.2

$3.7

$4.5

$1.4

$8.0 $8.3

$0.6

$2.1 $2.2

$3.4

$6.5 $6.2

$2.3

$3.6

$1.6

$6.7

$0.9

$4.0

$0.6

$3.2 $3.0 $3.5

$0.8

$1.7

$3.8

$2.6

$0.6

$4.0

$1.4 $1.0

$0.0 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.1 $0.2 $0.7

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$18.7 $7.1 $22.2 $8.4 $18.6 $13.1 $10.4 $9.0 $7.0 $0.7 $1.0

Tra

nsacti

on

Valu

e (

C$B

)

Asset Corp PrivateCo Average

1

July 2020 in Review

HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS ISSUE:

◼ OPEC reverting to 7.7 MMbbl/d in production cuts in

August down from 9.7 MMbbl/d, but fundamentals

trended positively with a 7.5 MMbbl draw down on U.S.

crude storage. NYMEX September contract up to

US$2.10/MMBTU. AECO storage inventory 76% full and

100 Bcf ahead of the same time last year

◼ Check out our special page on Canadian Gas Market

Outlook (Page 9)

◼ Check out our updated Spirit River Interactive Map here

◼ WCSB active weekly rig count at 46, up 29 from

previous month

◼ BMO Capital Markets has launched a digital resource to

help clients navigate the impact of the pandemic, with

new insights on the reopening published every two

weeks. Read more here

Key Industry Indicators

Quarterly Deal Activity (Producing Assets Only)(4)

DEALS ANNOUNCED IN JULY(1) :

Source: BMO Capital Markets, *All production throughout this document is sourced from geoSCOUT, only includes BC/AB/SK/MB and does not include oil sands mining. Production volumes are raw.

1. Deals larger than C$20MM; transactions are reported based on announcement/disclosure dates; excludes transactions involving royalty assets.

2. CCAA stands for Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act.

3. Current prices as of August 5, 2020 close. Previous month prices as of July 8, 2020 close.

4. Chart excludes joint ventures, oil sands transactions, and notable transactions including: CNOOC-Nexen (C$17.9B); Repsol-Talisman (C$15.9B); CNRL-Shell (C$12.6B); Cenovus-

ConocoPhillips (C$17.7B); Pengrowth’s disposition announced on October 18, 2017; Aspenleaf-NEP (announced on August 31, 2018); Pacific Oil-Canbriam (announced on May 13, 2019); CNRL-Devon C$3.78B (announced May 29, 2019); Cona-Pengrowth C$740MM

announced Nov 1, 2019; Longshore consolidation transaction (announced on June 8, 2020).

⚫ On July 6, 2020, Delphi Energy announced that it had

entered into a capital investment agreement with

Kiwetinohk Resources (“KRC”) in which KRC will make an

equity investment of C$60.4MM in two tranches into Delphi

upon its emergence from CCAA(2) in exchange for shares

and warrants. BMO Capital Markets is advising KRC on

this deal

⚫ On July 6, 2020, i3 Energy announced that it entered into a

binding purchase and sale agreement to acquire 100% of

the producing and non-producing petroleum assets of Gain

Energy for total cash consideration of C$80MM

⚫ On July 22, 2020, ConocoPhillips entered into a definitive

agreement to acquire Kelt Exploration’s Inga/Fireweed

assets, for ~C$510MM cash consideration plus C$41MM

of assumed financial obligations

https://www.bmoaddeals.com/uploads/pdf/Deep-Basin-Spirit-River-Market-Monitor.pdf

https://capitalmarkets.bmo.com/en/search/?keywords=Road to Recovery

August 6, 2020

NATURAL GAS

2

⚫ Crude markets remained fairly range-bound in July,

moving in a ~$2 band with the $40 level providing trading

support for WTI. If markets were up this month there was

typically a headline around a promising COVID-19 vaccine

trial or news that the U.S. was close to implementing

another round of stimulus. If the markets were down the

discussion was of virus spread through the southern

states and the impact on product demand or the “second

wave” globally threatening another round of lockdowns.

This month did see China slowing significantly on their

crude buying as they ran out of storage space since

stocking up on cheap crude in April and May, while OPEC

decided not to extend their ~9.7 MMbbl/d cuts, instead

reverting to their original plan of 7.7 MMbbl/d for August

(with countries who did not fulfill their original quota cutting

deeper to make up the difference). Fundamentals trended

to the positive side on the month with U.S. crude storage

decreasing a total of ~7.5 MMbbl, however, product stocks

are still well above last year’s levels. In other market

news, the U.S. continues to face infrastructure challenges

as the Dakota Access Pipeline was ordered to shut down

as it was ruled that the Army Corps of Engineers failed to

produce an adequate environmental impact statement -

the case is currently undergoing an appeal process. Front

month differentials in Canada remained fairly tight with

WCS exiting the month at $-7.76/bbl and MSW closing at

$-3.25/bbl. The market is currently watching how

Canadian producers will ramp production (particularly after

all maintenance is complete) and if there will be a need for

rail in the near-term based on supply egress balances

Commodities

Source: BMO Capital Markets

CRUDE

⚫ NYMEX: Languished between 1.59 – 1.93 US$/MMBTU

throughout July before catching a very strong bid on

August 3rd that took the September contract up to

2.10 US$/MMBTU. There was a confluence of bullish

factors leading to the move including forecasted

mid-August heat, weak production in the Haynesville and

Permian, and a surprising jump in LNG feed gas into the

Gulf. This means the market will enter the heating season

with slightly less gas in storage, hence the bullishness

exhibited across the gas curve this week

⚫ AECO: Through July production delivered to NGTL

averaged 11.45 Bcf/d, storage injections of 1.35 Bcf/d, and

intra demand of 4.49 Bcf/d. Production continues to shake

out lower vs. previous months as curtailed oil wells shut in

associated gas and natural declines kick in. Injections into

storage continue to be very strong compared to years

gone by as less production, capability additions (added

compression, twinning pipes etc.), and TC Energy’s

Temporary Service Protocol allow for a fully functional

storage market. Current AECO storage inventory sits at

364 Bcf which is 76% full and some 100 Bcf ahead of this

time last year. We expect AECO storage to fill near

capacity as we enter the heating season in November.

Intra demand does continue to lag, however, with the oil

sands taking 200-300 MMcf/d less than this time last year

August 6, 2020

⚫ The Canadian new issue market raised gross proceeds

of approximately C$2.7B in July 2020 with no

transactions in the energy space

3

⚫ The U.S. High Yield market saw eight issuers price nine

tranches to raise $6.1B in total proceeds in the last week

of July; six of these tranches were upsized due to strong

investor demand. Opportunistic refinancing and GCP

continue to be the primary drivers of supply

⚫ Cenovus Energy (Corporate: Ba2/BBB-/BB+/BBBL;

Unsecured: Ba2/BBB-/BB+/BBBL) priced a US$1B

(upsized from US$750MM) tranche of 5.375% five-year

senior bullet notes. Terms were finalized at the midpoint of

guidance. Cenovus Energy is an integrated oil and natural

gas company based in Calgary, Alberta. The company

develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas,

and natural gas liquids in Canada, and also owns refinery

sites in the United States. Proceeds will be used to repay

drawings under the company’s revolving credit facility

⚫ Rattler Midstream (Corporate: Ba3/BBB-/BB+; Unsecured:

Ba2/BBB-/BB+), technically a “crossover” deal with an

investment grade rating from S&P but it was sold primarily

to High Yield investors with a High Yield structure –

Rattler, a subsidiary of investment grade-rated E&P

Diamondback Energy, is the owner, operator and

developer of midstream infrastructure assets in the

Permian Basin, priced $500MM of 5NC2 Senior

Unsecured Notes due 2025 at 5.625%. Price talk was

5.75% area. Proceeds will be used to refinance revolver

drawings (10-July)

⚫ Saipem (Corporate: Ba1/BB+; Unsecured: Ba1/BB+), an

Italian based OFS company, priced €500MM of 6NCL

Senior Unsecured Notes due 2026 at 3.375%. Price talk

was 3.50% area. Proceeds will be used for general

corporate purposes (07-Jul)

⚫ The U.S. High Yield Energy Index tightened ~162 bps and

the broader U.S. High Yield Index tightened ~139 bps in

July

Debt Markets

Source: BMO Capital Markets

Equity Markets

August 6, 2020

Parameters Metrics

Date Acquiror Target Type EV Prod. % Gas P+P EV / Prod. EV / P+P

(C$MM) (boe/d) (%) (Mboe) (C$/boe/d) (C$/boe)

1-Nov-19 Cona Pengrowth SAGD $740 22,708 19% 446,508 $32,588 $1.66

29-May-19 CNRL Devon Canada SAGD $3,775 122,800 -- 879,000 $30,741 $4.29

10-Oct-18 IPC BlackPearl SAGD $712 11,250 1% 162,434 $63,310 $4.38

31-Aug-18 CNRL Joslyn Oil Sands Project Mining $225 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

26-Jul-18 CNRL Laricina SAGD $67 n.a. n.a. 389,000 n.a. $0.17

12-Feb-18 Suncor Mocal Energy (5% Syncrude W.I.) Mining $921 16,226 -- 122,441 $56,749 $7.52

3-Jan-18 Suncor Total E&P Canada (3.31% Fort Hills W.I.) Mining $453 6,545 -- 94,804 $69,211 $4.78

3-Jan-18 Teck Total E&P Canada (1.30% Fort Hills W.I.) Mining $179 2,571 -- 37,234 $69,633 $4.81

29-Mar-17 Cenovus ConocoPhillips (FCCL and Deep Basin Assets) SAGD $17,730 284,396 31% 3,965,833 $62,341 $4.47

9-Mar-17 CNRL Shell & Marathon (70% AOSP W.I.) Mining $12,592 201,800 -- n.a. $62,397 n.a.

9-Mar-17 Shell Marathon (10% AOSP W.I.) Mining $1,683 26,857 -- n.a. $62,660 n.a.

Average / Total 11 Transactions $39,076 695,153 6% 6,097,254 $56,626 $4.01

Median $740 22,708 -- 275,717 $62,397 $4.43

Parameters Metrics

Prod. % Gas P+P Production P+P

(C$ MM) (boe/d) (%) (Mboe) (EV$/boe/d) (EV$/boe)

22-Jul-20 ConocoPhillips Kelt (Inga, Fireweed, Stoddart assets) $551 14,269 45% 301,361 $35,742 $1.69 Northeast BC

6-Jul-20 i3 Energy Gain Energy $80 10,645 53% 69,400 $7,515 $1.15 Central AB

6-Jul-20 Kiwetinohk Delphi (50% Ownership) $60 6,575 60% 58,357 $9,187 $1.04 Grande Prairie

28-Apr-20 Burgess Athabasca (Royalty Assets) $70 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fort McMurray

23-Apr-20 Spartan Delta Bellatrix Exploration $109 25,000 70% 268,000 $4,352 $0.41 Central AB

1-Apr-20 Undisclosed Perpetual (East Edson / Spirit River Assets) $35 3,127 90% 30,000 $11,195 $1.17 Central AB

24-Feb-20 Tourmaline Chinook Energy $24 3,500 86% 35,600 $6,971 $0.69 Northeast BC

20-Jan-20 IPC Granite $77 1,515 0% 14,000 $50,937 $5.51 S. Eastern AB

5-Dec-19 Bonavista Paramount (West Central AB Assets) $53 8,200 56% 47,432 $6,500 $1.12 Central AB

6-Nov-19 Tourmaline Undisclosed (Peace River High Assets) $175 5,600 50% 62,000 $31,250 $2.82 Grande Prairie

Average / Total (Ex. Royalty) 9 Transactions (2 Oil, 7 Gas) $1,165 78,430 57% 886,150 $18,183 $1.73

Oil Weighted $628 15,784 23% 315,361 $43,339 $3.60

Gas Weighted $537 62,646 66% 570,789 $10,996 $1.20

Ann'd Date Buyer SellerEnterprise

Value

WCSB

Region

Parameters Metrics

Ann'd Date Buyer SellerEnterpise

ValueProd. % Gas Production Commentary

(C$ MM) (boe/d) (%) (EV$/boe/d)

28-Apr-20 Burgess Athabasca (Royalty Assets) $70 n.a. n.a. n.a. Upsized: Includes Leismer, Hangingstone and Corner

28-Jun-19 Freehold Surge (AB and SK Royalty Assets) $29 214 6% $136,290 Gross overriding royalty on central & northern AB, SW SK assets

28-Feb-18 Freehold Cardinal (Various Royalties) $24 110 n.a. $218,182 Gross overriding royalty on the Mitsue Gilwood Unit

27-Feb-18 PrairieSky Undisclosed (AB Viking Royalty Assets) $46 300 54% $153,333 Producing gross overriding royalty acquired

27-Feb-18 PrairieSky Undisclosed (Clearwater Royalty Assets) $33 n.a. 0% n.a. Non-producing gross overriding royalty acquired

30-Jan-18 Burgess Connacher (Royalty Assets) $44 n.a. 0% n.a. Sliding scale royalty on all lands containing bitumen

20-Dec-17 Freehold Bonterra (Pembina GORR) $52 210 26% $247,619 2% gross overriding royalty on its Pembina Cardium pool

10-Nov-17 Undisclosed Obsidian (Eastern Alberta Royalty) $40 181 38% $220,994 Royalty interest in Eastern Alberta

2-Oct-17 Franco-Nevada Osum Oil Sands (Royalty Assets) $93 310 0% $298,387 4% gross overriding royalty interest on its Orion Project

2-Mar-17 Freehold Undisclosed (Royalty Assets) $34 185 9% $183,784 32,000 acres in the Dodsland Viking

9-Feb-17 Burgess Athabasca (Royalty Assets) $90 -- 0% n.a. Upsized: Includes Leismer and Corner lease

16-Dec-16 Undisclosed Cavalier (Royalty Assets) $100 -- n.a. n.a. Sliding scale (0-20%) starting at US$50/bbl WCS

14-Dec-16 PrairieSky Pengrowth (Royalty Assets) $250 608 0% $411,455 4% royalty on Lindbergh properties, including future development

14-Dec-16 Burgess Athabasca (Royalty Assets) $50 -- 0% n.a. Upsized: Modified sliding scale and starting point

1-Dec-16 PrairieSky BlackPearl / Other (Royalty Assets) $117 460 17% $255,000 Acquired a combined 3.95% royalty interest at Onion Lake

3-Nov-16 Burgess Athabasca (Royalty Assets) $129 n.a. 0% n.a. Upsized: Sliding scale (0-12%) starting at US$75/bbl WTI

27-Jun-16 PrairieSky Pine Cliff (Royalty Assets) $25 n.a. n.a. n.a. 99,930 net fee title acres

20-Jun-16 Burgess Athabasca (Royalty Assets) $129 -- 0% n.a. Sliding scale (0-6%) starting at US$75/bbl WTI

2-May-16 Freehold Husky (Royalty Assets) $165 1,700 70% $97,059 Acquired >2MM net acres across Western Canada

Average / Total 19 Transactions $1,519 4,278 15% $222,210

4

The 10 Most Recent Transactions Over $20 Million(1)

Oil Sands Transactions (2016 – Present)

Royalty Transactions (2016 – Present)

Note: Transactions that occurred after the month being covered in this report are not includedSource: BMO Transaction Database

Denotes current month transaction(s)Blue = BMO Capital Markets provided transaction advisory services Green = BMO Capital Markets provided acquisition financing or related services

1. Excludes Longshore Resources’ consolidation transaction announced on June 8, 2020.

2. Multiples for the Conoco/Kelt transactions are based on cash consideration of $510MM and

excludes $41MM of assumed financial obligations for infrastructure assets.

3. CNRL also acquired Devon’s Bonnyville heavy oil assets (20,100 bbl/d).

4. KRC/Delphi transaction will be completed in two tranches

(3)

(2)

(4)

August 6, 2020

42% 58%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

$1.0B67%

$0.2B15%

$0.3B18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

$0.4B31%

$0.6B44%

$0.3B19%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

81% 19%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

$0.8B100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

$0.8B100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

5Source: BMO Transaction Database1. Deals larger than C$20MM; transactions are reported based on announcement/disclosure

dates.2. Chart excludes joint ventures, oil sands transactions, and notable transactions including:

CNRL-Devon C$3.78B (announced May 29, 2019); Cona C$740MM (announced November

2019).

3. Excludes royalty transactions.

LTM Transaction Breakdown (By Deal Value)

SELLERBUYER OIL VS. GAS

Yield

Junior / Interm.

PrivateCo/Sponsor

Undisclosed Senior

Foreign Other Gas Oil

E&

P(1

)(2)

Oil

San

ds

~44% of value acquired

by foreign buyers

OIL-WEIGHTED TRANSACTIONS

GAS-WEIGHTED TRANSACTIONS

A&D Valuation Trends(1,2,3)

+/- 1 Standard Deviation Annual Weighted Average MSW (Right-hand axis)Average Multiple

+/- 1 Standard Deviation Annual Weighted Average AECO (Right-hand axis)Average Multiple

--

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

--

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MS

W (C

$/b

bl)

EV

/Pro

du

cti

on

($/b

oe/d

)

--

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

--

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

AE

CO

(C$/M

MB

TU

)E

V/P

rod

ucti

on

($/b

oe/d

)

~67% of value sold by

Junior / Interm. sellers

August 6, 2020

Legend

US$/bbl C$/bbl

US$/bbl Diff C$/bbl Diff

Cushing (37 - 42o)

MSW (39.5o)

Clearbrook (~ 40o)

Midland (~ 40o) St. James LLS (~ 40o)

East Coast U.S.

Brent (38o)

WCS (20.5o)

Southern

California

Henry Hub

Dominion

Dawn

Chicago

Citygate

AECOStation 2

Northern

California

Legend

US$/MMBTU C$/GJ

US$/MMBTU C$/GJ

Diff Diff

Transco

El Paso - SJ

Waha

Sumas

Maya (~ 22o)

Commodity Prices – August 5th, 2020

Source: BMO Commodity Products Group, Bloomberg – Prompt PricingUS$/C$ spot rate of 1.3282 used for all conversions from Bloomberg as of August 5, 2020.

6

NATURAL GAS PRICING & DIFFERENTIALS TO HENRY HUB (US$ / MMBTU | C$ / GJ)

OIL PRICING & DIFFERENTIALS TO CUSHING WTI (US$ / BBL) – OIL API GRAVITY IN PARENTHESIS

$42.19 $56.04

$43.30 $57.51

$1.11 $1.47

$45.17 $59.99

$2.98 $3.96

$41.89 $55.64

($0.30) ($0.40)

$42.20 $56.05

$0.01 $0.01

$38.74 $51.45

($3.45) ($4.58)

$30.39 $40.36

($11.80) ($15.67)

$40.78 $54.16

($1.41) ($1.87)

$2.19 $2.76

$1.82 $2.29

($0.37) ($0.47)

$1.50 $1.89

($0.69) ($0.87)

$1.96 $2.47

($0.23) ($0.29)$1.44 $1.81

($0.75) ($0.94)

$2.15 $2.71

($0.04) ($0.05)

$2.80 $3.53

$0.61 $0.77

$1.77 $2.23

($0.42) ($0.53)

$1.72 $2.17

($0.47) ($0.59)

$1.91 $2.41

($0.28) ($0.35)

$1.69 $2.13

($0.50) ($0.63)

$1.98 $2.49

($0.21) ($0.26)

August 6, 2020

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

2020 2021 2022 2023

MS

W (C

$/b

bl)

Strip 08/05/20 Evaluator Average

BMO Research

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Oil P

rod

ucti

on (M

Mbb

l/d)

SK AB BC MB

Source: geoSCOUT, BMO Capital Markets, BloombergNote: Evaluator Average Forecast - averaged Q3 2020 forecasts of GLJ, Sproule, McDaniel,

Deloitte, BMO Research Average as of June 11, 2020.1. Prices reported according to Bloomberg.2. This page does not include oil sands mining or Northwest Territories well production.

7

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20

NG

L / M

SW

Sp

ot

Edmonton Propane/MSW Edmonton Butane/MSW Edmonton Condensate/MSW

$0

$7

$14

$21

$28

$35

$42

$49

$56

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80


Dif

f (U

S$/b

bl)

WC

S (

C$/b

bl)

WTI - WCS Diff (US$/bbl) WCS

-$20

-$15

-$10

-$5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90


Dif

f (U

S$/b

bl)

Ed

m. C

5 (

C$/b

bl)

WTI - CND C5 Dif f (US$/bbl) Canadian C5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90


Dif

f (U

S$/b

bl)

MS

W (C

$/b

bl)

WTI - MSW Dif f (US$/bbl) MSW

EDMONTON OIL PRICE FORECASTS

Oil/Liquids Fundamentals

EDMONTON MIXED SWEET / WTI HISTORICAL CANADIAN CONDENSATE / WTI HISTORICAL

NGL AS A PERCENTAGE OF MSW(1)WESTERN CANADIAN SELECT / WTI HISTORICAL

WCSB OIL PRODUCTION(2)

August 6, 2020

$1

$2

$3

$4

2020 2021 2022 2023

AE

CO

(C

$/M

MB

TU

)

Strip 08/05/20 Evaluator Average

BMO Research

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Na

tura

l G

as

Sto

rag

e (B

cf)

5-Year Range 5-Yr Avg

2019 2020

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


5 Year Min/Max 5-Yr Avg

2019 2020

Na

tura

l G

as

Sto

rag

e (B

cf)

8

Natural Gas Fundamentals

Source: geoSCOUT, BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, NGX Note: Evaluator Average Forecast - averaged Q3 2020 forecasts of GLJ, Sproule, McDaniel,

Deloitte. BMO Research Average as of June 11, 2020.1. This page does not include Northwest Territories well production.

AECO / NYMEX HISTORICAL STATION 2 / AECO HISTORICAL

WESTERN CANADA GAS STORAGE U.S. NATURAL GAS STORAGE

AECO GAS PRICE FORECASTS WCSB GAS PRODUCTION(1)

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20D

iff

(US

$/M

MB

TU

)

AEC

O (

C$/M

MB

TU

)

HH - AECO Dif f (US$/MMBTU) AECO

$0

$1

$2

$3

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4


Dif

f (C

$/M

MB

TU

)

St.

2 B

C (

C$/M

MB

TU)

AECO - St.2 Diff (C$/MMBTU) Station 2 BC

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Natu

ral G

as

Pro

du

cti

on (B

cf/

d)

BC AB SK MB

August 6, 2020

Sources: BMO CM, Statistics Canada, Canadian monthly natural gas distribution, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Natural Gas Marketed Production, and July 2020 Monthly

Energy Review. Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) ST98 updated June 2020, Canada Energy Regulator (CER) Provincial and Territorial Profiles – Alberta updated June 24, 20201. LNG demand assumes the Woodfibre LNG project is operational by 2025, and the LNG

Canada is operational with Trains 1 & 2 in 2025 and Trains 3 & 4 by 2030

2. Oil Sands demand only includes “purchased” gas volumes3. Based on AB 2018 Electricity demand of 81 TW (~9,247 MW) with 49% from coal and 43%

from gas. 49% of coal-fired capacity will be converted to gas-fired by 2023 and the remainder by 2030

60

80

100

120


Dry

Gas P

roductio

n

(Bcf/

d)

2016-2020 Range 2020

15

16

17

18


Mark

eta

ble

Pro

ductio

n

(Bcf/

d)

2016-2020 Range 2020

⚫ Data through April 2020 suggests that the global pandemic

and resulting economic shut-down has not significantly

impacted Canadian or U.S. natural gas production and

demand

⚫ Demand for both Canada and the U.S. has remained at or

near five-year highs

⚫ While Canadian production is near the five-year low, this

trend started well before the pandemic events and the

reduction is due primarily to reduction in exports to the United

States

⚫ While exports are forecast to continue declining, demand

growth will be more than offset with the following three

sectors:

◼ Coal-to-Gas conversions for electricity (+0.7 Bcf/d)

◼ Oil Sands growth (+0.8 Bcf/d)

◼ West Coast LNG project (+3.9 Bcf/d)

⚫ Historic low rig counts combined with five-year production

lows and near-term demand growth points to improving

support for WCSB gas

60

80

100

120


Tota

l C

onsum

ptio

n

(Bcf/

d)

2016-2020 Range 2020

6

9

12

15

18


Tota

l C

onsum

ptio

n

(Bcf/

d)

2016-2020 Range 2020

9

Canadian Gas Market Looks Strong with Increasing Demand

COMMENTARYALBERTA NATURAL GAS DEMAND SOURCES (1),(2)

U.S. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

U.S. NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION

CANADIAN NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

CANADIAN NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION

Cdn production near

5-year seasonal lows

Cdn Demand is at 5-year

seasonal highs

U.S. demand is at 5-year

seasonal highs

U.S. production at 5-year highs

3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3

4.1 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.0

1.2 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.9

1.9 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.7

2.2 3.910.2 9.8 10.1

12.213.7

0

5

10

15

2019 2020 2023 2025 2029

Natu

ral G

as D

em

and

(Bcf/

d)

Other Exports Electricity Oil Sands LNG

Gas49%

Coal-to-gas 2023

21%

Coal-to-gas 2030

22%

Wind5%

Other3%

ALBERTA ELECTRICITY GENERATION SOURCES (3)

Incremental gas demand

of ~3.9 Bcf/d from current

TransAlta

Keephills 3 & Sundance 4

will be converted by 2023

with a capacity of ~2,466 MW

(~0.35 Bcf/d)

Remaining capacity will be

converted by 2030 and use

an additional ~0.35 Bcf/d

August 6, 2020

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Tourmaline

Ovintiv

Seven Generations

Peyto

Suncor

Teine

Bonavista

PETRONAS

North 40

Anegada

Grande Prairie NEBC Central AB

SK Area II Foothills Fort McMurray

Peace River / Slave Lk. SK Area III

0

50

100

150

200

Acti

ve

Rig

Co

un

t

AB SK BC MB Previous Year Activity

ACTIVE RIG COUNT BY AREA – 46 ACTIVE RIGS(1) IN THE WEEK ENDING JULY 31, 2020

10

Rig Analysis

Source: DOB, BMO Capital Markets1. Based on DOB Weekly Drilling Report ending on July 31, 2020

2. Based on DOB Rig Activity ending on July 28, 2020

PSAC Area

Active Rig Count

SASKATCHEWAN

ALBERTA

BRITISH

COLUMBIA

SK Area I

0

Athabasca/Cold Lk

1

Fort McMurray

2

SK Area IV

0

SK Area III

1

Rainbow Lk

0NEBC

10

Peace River/Slave Lk.

3

E. Central AB

0

SK Area II

2

Active Rigs

Shown

Central AB

6

80% of rig

count

Grande Prairie

18

Foothills

2

WEEKLY RIG COUNT BY PROVINCE(2) TOP OPERATORS BY RIG COUNT(1)

SE AB

1

149 rigs were

active this

time last year

– down 69 %

YoY

August 6, 2020

Wells Spud Oil and Raw Gas Production

Jul-20 vs. Jul-19 Direction May-20 vs. Apr-20 vs. Mar-20 vs. May-19 Direction

(well count) (%) (boe/d) (%) (%) (%)

Viking 13 (86%) 125,986 (7%) (17%) (15%)

BC Montney 10 (9%) 899,505 (1%) 1% 16%

AB Montney 9 (59%) 555,605 (4%) (5%) (7%)

Duvernay WSB 0 (100%) 105,666 (5%) (9%) 8%

Duvernay ESB 0 (100%) 5,749 (54%) (68%) (67%)

Spirit River 16 33% 377,778 (3%) (7%) (13%)

Cardium 5 (85%) 180,746 (7%) (11%) (11%)

Bakken 0 (100%) 57,394 (10%) (18%) (21%)

SE Sask Mississippian 3 (96%) 109,959 (10%) (19%) (21%)

Sub-Total 56 (81%) 2,418,388 (4%) (6%) (3%)

Other 13 (96%) 1,403,752 (7%) (18%) (17%)

Total 69 (89%) 3,822,140 (5.1%) (10.7%) (3.8%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

To

tal

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

Mb

oe

/d)

Other VikingAB Montney BC MontneySE Sask Mississippian Spirit RiverBakken Duvernay WSBDuvernay ESB Cardium

For use on pages 12-20 we define the following well classifications:

Location and Drilling wells defined as wells licensed or licensed and spud in the last twelve months (LTM), with no rig release date on record. Standing wells are defined as wells that have not produced but

have a rig release date within the LTM. Producing wells include water injectors that support production All wells with no production and a rig release prior to January 2012 are not shown. All wells with no

production in LTM not shown. As of the August 2018 Market Monitor, thermal production in Saskatchewan is now excluded from the “Other” play category. Production volumes are raw

11

WCSB Key Play Activity

Source: BMO Capital Markets, geoSCOUT, GeoEdgesNote: This page does not include mining or thermal production or conventional wells from the

Northwest TerritoriesProduction as of May 2020; Spud and License data as of August 4, 20201. LTM is 13 month rolling window

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20

We

ll E

ve

nts

Sp

ud

(c

ou

nt)

Other Viking BC Montney

AB Montney Duvernay WSB Duvernay ESB

Spirit River Cardium Bakken

SE Sask Mississippian

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Me

tre

s D

rille

d (m

illio

ns

)

Other Viking BC MontneyAB Montney Duvernay WSB Duvernay ESBSpirit River Cardium BakkenSE Sask Mississippian

LOCATOR MAP PRODUCTION BY PLAY(1)

METRES DRILLED BY PLAY LTM(1)WELLS SPUD BY PLAY(1)

PLAY SUMMARY – WELLS SPUD AND TOTAL PRODUCTION

August 6, 2020

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Teine

Baytex

Whitecap

Crescent Point

Tamarack Valley

Producing Standing Location and Drilling

-

50

100

150

200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

bo

e/d

)

Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Current Last Month Last Year

(Jul-20) (Jun-20) (Jul-19)

Licensing Count 22 7 70

Spud Count 13 0 95

0

50

100

150

200


Wells Licensed Wells Spud 13mo Licensing Avg

2

1

3

1

3

1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe/d #Deals

2

1 1

3

1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe #Deals

Parameters Metrics

Prod. %Gas P+P RLI (P+P) EV/boe/d EV/2P EV/DACF

(C$MM) (boe/d) (%) (Mboe) (Years) (C$/boe/d) (C$/boe) (x)

18-Jun-18 Baytex Raging River Corp $1,935 24,118 7% 106,652 12.1 $80,246 $18.15 4.9x

15-Aug-17 Karve Energy Apache (Alberta Viking Assets) Asset $118 6,500 57% 16,800 7.1 $18,154 $7.02 4.6x

13-Dec-16 Steelhead Toro Corp $40 658 40% 4,647 19.3 $60,000 $8.50 nmf

28-Nov-16 Raging River Northern Blizzard (Viking Assets) Asset $58 620 3% 5,800 25.6 $93,548 $10.00 6.1x

2-Nov-16 Tamarack Valley Spur (Viking) PrivateCo $388 6,250 48% 26,500 11.6 $62,150 $14.66 6.0x

20-Jul-16 Raging River Rock (Forgan Lands) Asset $25 100 0% n.a. n.a. $251,000 n.a. n.a.

10-Jun-16 Teine Energy Penn West (Viking Assets) Asset $975 16,300 9% 53,200 8.9 $59,816 $18.33 12.9x

31-May-16 Raging River Rock Energy Corp $109 2,550 5% 17,077 18.3 $42,745 $6.38 6.6x

10-May-16 NAL Resources Husky (Viking) Asset $102 1,470 45% n.a. n.a. $69,388 n.a. n.a.

Average - Viking $417 6,507 24% 32,954 14.7 $81,894 $11.86 6.8x

Median - Viking $109 2,550 9% 17,077 12.1 $62,150 $10.00 6.0x

ROYALTY

27-Feb-18 PrairieSky Undisclosed (AB Viking Royalty Assets) Asset $46 300 54% n.a. n.a. $153,333 n.a. n.a.

2-Mar-17 Freehold Undisclosed (Royalty Assets) Asset $34 185 9% n.a. n.a. $183,784 n.a. n.a.

Announce

DateAcquiror Target Corp/Asset

Enterprise

Value

12

Viking

Viking Snapshot

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, geoSCOUT, GeoEdgesNote: Production as of May 2020; Spud and License data as of August 4, 2020

1. As defined on page 112. Excludes royalty transactions3. Deal metrics shown include entire corporate transaction, not just the Viking assets

4. Karve’s acquisition of High Ground for an undisclosed amount

Last Announced Deal: July 2019(4)

TRANSACTION ACTIVITY (2016 TO PRESENT)(2)

PRODUCTION BY DRILLING YEAR TOP 5 OPERATORS BY HORIZONTAL WELL COUNT(1)

Well spuds

from 0 to 13

month over

month

(3)

(3)

TRANSACTION 2P RESERVES MULTIPLES ($/BOE) TRANSACTION PRODUCTION MULTIPLES ($/BOE/D)

~$251k/boe/d

Viking Horizontal Wells

ACTIVITY OVERVIEW MAP

August 6, 2020

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Ovintiv

Tourmaline

PETRONAS

ARC

Shell


-

250

500

750

1,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

bo

e/d

)

Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

40

80

120




(Jul-20) (Jun-20) (Jul-19)


Spud Count 10 14 11

1

2

1

2 2

1 1 1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe/d #Deals

1

2

1

2 2

1 1 1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe #Deals

Parameters Metrics



22-Jul-20 ConocoPhillips Kelt (Inga/Fireweed Assets) Asset $551 14,269 45% 301,361 57.9 $35,742 $1.69 n.a.

24-Feb-20 Tourmaline Chinook Energy (NE BC Montney) Corp $24 3,500 86% 35,600 27.9 $6,971 $0.69 n.a.

18-Oct-19 Tourmaline Painted Pony (NE BC Montney) Asset $45 -- n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

31-Jul-18 Undisclosed Canbriam (NE BC Montney) Asset $50 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

8-May-17 Primavera Crew (Goose Assets) Asset $49 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

23-Mar-17 ConocoPhillips Pengrowth (Bernadet) Asset $92 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

15-Mar-17 Painted Pony UGR PrivateCo $271 8,500 99% 325,100 104.8 $31,914 $0.83 8.9x

20-Oct-16 Tourmaline Shell (Deep Basin / Montney) Asset $1,369 24,850 85% 473,500 52.2 $55,091 $2.89 n.a.

Average - BC Montney $272 9,213 90% 278,067 61.6 $31,325 $1.47 8.9x

Median - BC Montney $50 6,000 86% 325,100 52.2 $31,914 $0.83 8.9x

Enterprise

Value

Announce

DateAcquiror Vendor Corp/Asset

13

BC Montney

BC Montney Horizontal Wells


1. As defined on page 112. Excludes Suncor’s divesture of NEBC mineral land holdings and subsequent equity stake in

Canbriam and Pacific Oil & Gas’ acquisition of Canbriam for an undisclosed amount

BC Montney Snapshot Last Announced Deal: $551MM in July 2020

COP

acquisition of

Kelt assets for

$551MM


TRANSACTION ACTIVITY (2016 TO PRESENT)(2)

TRANSACTION 2P RESERVES MULTIPLES ($/BOE)

~$153k/boe/d

TRANSACTION PRODUCTION MULTIPLES ($/BOE/D)


August 6, 2020

0 200 400 600 800

Seven Generations

Birchcliff

Paramount

Ovintiv

NuVista


-

250

500

750

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

bo

e/d

)

Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100




(Jul-20) (Jun-20) (Jul-19)


Spud Count 9 5 22

1 1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2

1

2

1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe #Deals

Parameters Metrics



6-Jul-20 Kiwetinohk Delphi (50% Ownership) Corp $60 6,575 60% 58,357 24.3 $9,187 $1.04 3.2x

14-Nov-18 Birchcliff ORLEN (Pouce Coupe Assets) Asset $39 700 86% -- n.a. $55,714 n.a. n.a.

30-Oct-18 Pipestone Blackbird Corp $247 1,148 45% 59,099 141.0 $215,262 $4.18 19.7x

10-Sep-18 Velvet Iron Bridge Corp $142 2,314 70% 26,113 30.9 $61,379 $5.44 14.5x

9-Aug-18 NuVista Cenovus (Pipestone Partnership) Asset $625 9,600 54% 156,888 44.8 $65,104 $3.98 9.9x

14-Jun-18 Strath Paramount (Resthaven/Jayar) Corp $340 5,300 64% 8,100 4.2 $64,151 $41.98 n.a.

1-Sep-17 Tangle Creek RMP (Waskahigan) Asset $80 3,215 70% 23,000 19.6 $24,883 $3.48 n.a.

6-Jul-17 Paramount Trilogy Corp $1,109 25,133 62% 165,059 18.0 $44,112 $6.72 6.3x

1-May-17 Undisclosed Trilogy (Valhalla) Asset $50 1,100 84% 5,500 13.7 $45,455 $9.09 n.a.

1-May-17 Undisclosed Paramount (Valhalla) Asset $150 1,400 88% n.a. n.a. $107,143 n.a. n.a.

5-Apr-17 Leucrotta Undisclosed (Mica/Doe) Asset $36 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

4-Jan-17 Undisclosed Kelt (Karr Assets) Asset $100 1,303 50% 12,700 26.7 $76,746 $7.87 n.a.

31-Oct-16 Enerplus RMP (Ante Creek Assets) Asset $114 4,300 55% 10,001 6.4 $26,581 $11.43 n.a.

6-Jul-16 Seven Generations Paramount (Musreau Assets) Asset $1,897 30,000 44% 293,000 26.8 $63,219 $6.47 n.a.

21-Jun-16 Birchcliff Encana (Gordondale Assets) Asset $625 26,000 59% 191,133 20.1 $24,038 $3.27 n.a.

16-Mar-16 Enercapita Surge (Sunset Assets) Asset $28 700 n.a. n.a. n.a. $40,000 n.a. n.a.

Average - AB Montney $372 8,015 64% 79,216 32.0 $65,271 $9.45 12.6x

Median - AB Montney $142 2,764 62% 24,557 20.1 $58,547 $6.47 12.2x

Announce


Enterprise

Value

1 1 1 1 1 12 2 2

12

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

$0

$40,000

$80,000

$120,000


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe/d #Deals

14

Last Announced Deal: $60MM in July 2020AB Montney Snapshot


1. As defined on page 112. Reflects full corporate transaction3. KRC/Delphi transaction will be completed in two tranches

AB Montney

AB Montney Horizontal Wells

Licensing

activity up

month over

month


TRANSACTION ACTIVITY (2016 TO PRESENT)


~$135k/boe/d

(2)



(3)

August 6, 2020

0

10

20

30

40



0 100 200 300 400

Shell

Chevron

Ovintiv

XTO

Murphy


-

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

bo

e/d

)

Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


(Jul-20) (Jun-20) (Jul-19)


Spud Count 0 5 12

15

Duvernay West Shale Basin Snapshot Last Announced Deal: $1.1B in July 2017(3)

Duvernay

WSB

Compensation Parameters Metrics (Adjusted)

Upfront Total Interest Acres Production Resource Acreage Resource

($MM) ($MM) (%) (mcfe/d) (tcf) (C$/Acre) (C$/Mcfe)

6-Jul-17 Paramount Trilogy n.a. n.a. 100% 118,000 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

25-May-17 XTO Trilogy $60 $60 100% 6,240 3,840 n.a. $6,026 n.a.

27-Jan-16 Murphy Oil Athabasca $250 $475 61% 158,000 28,440 1.00 $1,877 $0.30

7-Dec-15 XTO Yoho $50 $50 100% 10,290 5,340 n.a. $1,832 n.a.

19-Nov-15 Undisclosed Trilogy $113 $113 100% 5,760 3,480 n.a. $16,055 n.a.

6-Oct-14 KUFPEC Chevron <$1,678 $1,678 30% 99,000 4,590 n.a. $16,678 n.a.

1-Aug-13 Chevron Alta Energy $900 $900 100% 67,900 -- n.a. $13,255 n.a.

13-Dec-12 PetroChina Encana $1,180 $2,180 50% 222,055 -- 6.74 $9,817 $0.32

Average - Duvernay $604 $779 85,906 6,527 3.87 $9,363 $0.31

Median - Duvernay $250 $475 83,450 3,840 3.87 $9,817 $0.31

Announce

DateAcquiror Vendor


1. As defined on page 112. Production multiple adjusted assuming $30,000/boe/d3. Paramount’s acquisition of Trilogy is a corporate transaction

4. Transaction value includes a carry of a portion of Chevron Canada’s share of the joint venture’s future capital costs; amount unknown



TRANSACTION MULTIPLES ($/MCFE) TRANSACTION ACREAGE MULTIPLES ($/ACRE)

(3)

(4)

(2)

Duvernay Horizontal Wells


1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

$0.0

$0.1

$0.2

$0.3

$0.4

$0.5


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/Mcfe #Deals

2

1 1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/Acre #Deals

August 6, 2020

16

Duvernay East Shale Basin Snapshot


1. As defined on page 112. Journey and Kiwetinohk deal is a joint venture agreement3. Baytex’s acquisition of Raging River was a corporate transaction

Last Announced Deal: August 2018

Duvernay

ESB

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

bo

e/d

)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2017 2018 2019 2020

0 50 100 150

Vesta

Artis

Chronos

Crescent Point

PrairieThunder


Compensation Parameters Metrics (Adjusted)

Upfront Total Interest Acres Production Resource Acreage Resource

($MM) ($MM) (%) (mcfe/d) (tcf) (C$/Acre) (C$/Mcfe)

29-Aug-18 Kiwetinohk Journey (JV) n.a. n.a. n.a. 89,600 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

18-Jun-18 Baytex Raging River (Corporate) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Average - Duvernay n.a. n.a. 89,600 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Median - Duvernay n.a. n.a. 89,600 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Announce

DateAcquiror Vendor

0

2

4

6

8

10

12




(Jul-20) (Jun-20) (Jul-19)


Spud Count 0 0 4


TRANSACTION ACTIVITY (2018 – PRESENT)(2,3)

Duvernay Horizontal Wells


August 6, 2020

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Peyto

Tourmaline

Spartan Delta

Jupiter

Cenovus


1 1 1

2

1

2 2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe/d #Deals

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

bo

e/d

)

Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30




(Jul-20) (Jun-20) (Jul-19)


Spud Count 16 1 12

1 1

2

1

2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe #Deals

Parameters Metrics



23-Apr-20 Spartan Delta Bellatrix Exploration Corp $102 25,000 70% 268,000 29.4 $4,088 $0.38 2.3x

1-Apr-20 Undisclosed Perpetual (East Edson/Spirit River) Asset $35 3,127 90% 30,000 26.3 $11,195 $1.17 4.3x

29-Mar-17 Cenovus ConocoPhillips (FCCL & D. Basin) Asset $17,730 284,396 31% 3,965,833 38.2 $62,341 $4.47 9.8x

20-Oct-16 Tourmaline Shell (Deep Basin & Gundy Montney) Asset $1,369 24,850 85% 473,500 52.2 $55,091 $2.89 n.a.

16-Jun-16 Bellatrix Grafton (Ferrier Assets) Asset $33 2,000 79% n.a. n.a. $16,541 n.a. n.a.

13-Jun-16 Undisclosed NuVista (Cretaceous Wapiti) Asset $70 3,200 73% 21,700 18.6 $21,875 $3.23 n.a.

11-Jan-16 Tourmaline & Undisc. Enerplus (Deep Basin Assets) Asset $193 5,400 98% n.a. n.a. $35,741 n.a. n.a.

Average - Spirit River $3,238 53,829 76% 1,122,758 33.8 $33,797 $2.94 7.1x

Median - Spirit River $132 4,300 82% 251,750 32.2 $28,808 $3.06 7.1x

Announce


Enterprise

Value

17Source: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, geoSCOUT, GeoEdgesNote: Production as of May 2020; Spud and License data as of August 4, 2020

1. As defined on page 112. Deal metrics shown includes entire transaction (including Cardium producing assets)3. Deal metrics shown include entire transaction (including non-Spirit River assets, which are

significant)

Spirit River Snapshot

Spirit River

Activity up from

last month and

YoY

Last Announced Deal: $102MM in April 2020(2)




(3)


Spirit River Horizontal Wells


(2)

August 6, 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50



1 1 1

2

1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe #Deals

1 1 1

3

1 1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe/d #Deals

Parameters Metrics



11-Jul-17 NAL Resources Pengrowth (Olds/Garrington Assets) Asset $300 13,875 n.a. 78,000 15.4 $21,622 $3.85 n.a.

14-Jun-17 Undisclosed Bellatrix (Strachan Assets) Asset $35 1,750 70% n.a. n.a. $19,714 n.a. n.a.

5-Dec-16 TransGlobe Bellatrix (Harmattan Assets) Asset $80 3,104 43% 21,300 18.8 $25,773 $3.76 n.a.

19-Sep-16 InPlay Bellatrix (Pembina Assets) Asset $47 900 25% 7,900 24.0 $51,782 $5.90 n.a.

19-Sep-16 InPlay Anderson Corp $33 1,659 58% 6,517 10.8 $19,640 $5.00 6.5x

28-Jul-16 ARC Resources Husky & Penn West (Pembina) Asset $148 3,083 15% n.a. n.a. $48,000 n.a. n.a.

7-Jun-16 Gear Energy Striker Corp $69 2,000 40% 11,068 15.2 $34,490 $6.23 14.9x

Average - Cardium $102 3,767 42% 24,957 16.8 $31,575 $4.95 10.7x

Median - Cardium $69 2,000 42% 11,068 15.4 $25,773 $5.00 10.7x

Announce


Enterprise

Value


1. As defined on page 112. Does not include the take-private of Lightstream (now called Ridgeback)3. Does not include royalty transactions

Cardium Snapshot

Cardium

Licensing and

spud activity up

month over

month


(Jul-20) (Jun-20) (Jul-19)


Spud Count 5 3 34

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Pro

du

cti

on

(M

bo

e/d

)

Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 20200 200 400 600

Whitecap

Ridgeback

Bonterra

Obsidian

Peyto



TRANSACTION ACTIVITY(2)(3) (2016 TO PRESENT)


Cardium Horizontal Wells


Last Announced Deal: $52MM GORR in Dec 2017 – Seller is Bonterra Energy

August 6, 2020

1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe #Deals

1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

$125,000

$150,000


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe/d #Deals

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Crescent Point

Tundra

Ridgeback

TORC

Vermilion


0

10

20

30

40

50



-

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

bo

e/d

)

Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


(Jul-20) (Jun-20) (Jul-19)


Spud Count 0 0 22

Parameters Metrics



23-Jul-18 Gear Steppe PrivateCo $70 1,175 1% n.a. n.a. $59,915 n.a. 2.9x

15-Jan-18 Vermilion Red River PrivateCo $91 1,150 0% 6,700 16.0 $78,957 $13.55 4.2x

23-Apr-14 Crescent Point CanEra PrivateCo $1,113 10,000 4% 52,100 14.3 $111,340 $21.37 4.8x

14-Mar-12 Crescent Point Reliable Corp $107 1,100 0% 4,100 10.2 $97,378 $26.13 4.1x

16-Feb-12 Crescent Point PetroBakken (Bakken Assets) Asset $427 2,900 10% 12,600 11.9 $147,241 $33.89 6.4x

Average - Bakken $362 3,265 3% 18,875 13.1 $98,966 $23.73 4.5x

Median - Bakken $107 1,175 1% 9,650 13.1 $97,378 $23.75 4.2x

Announce

DateAcquiror Vendor Corp/Asset Enterprise Value

Bakken Horizontal Wells


1. The Torquay and Three Forks are included as part of the Bakken sub-group2. In Manitoba, licensing may not specify target formation, and as a result wells will be correctly

categorized after they are drilled

3. As defined on page 114. Does not include the take-private of Lightstream (now called Ridgeback)

Bakken Snapshot(1)

Bakken


PRODUCTION BY DRILLING YEAR TOP 5 OPERATORS BY HORIZONTAL WELL COUNT(2)(3)


Last Announced Deal: $70MM in July 2018

TRANSACTION ACTIVITY(4) (2012 TO PRESENT)

August 6, 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

120



ACTIVITY

Parameters MetricsCommodity

Futures PriceProd. %Gas P+P RLI (P+P) EV/boe/d EV/2P EV/DACF


3-Sep-19 Undisclosed Crescent Point (SE SK Assets) Asset $212 7,000 15% 49,200 19.3 $30,286 $4.31 4.5x

8-Aug-18 TORC Villanova 4 PrivateCo $62 1,000 20% 4,000 11.0 $61,642 $15.41 n.a.

8-May-18 TORC Crescent Point (SE SK Assets) Asset $225 3,200 n.a. 15,500 13.3 $70,281 $14.51 n.a.

16-Apr-18 Vermilion Spartan Corp $1,396 23,000 9% 113,485 13.5 $60,684 $12.30 4.3x

13-Nov-17 Whitecap Cenovus (Weyburn Unit) Asset $940 14,800 0% 121,409 22.5 $63,514 $7.74 6.7x

1-Jun-17 Cardinal Apache (SE SK & House Mountain Assets) Asset $330 5,000 0% 28,600 15.7 $66,000 $11.54 6.0x

10-May-17 Undisclosed Freehold (SE Sask Assets) Asset $29 750 44% n.a. n.a. $38,533 n.a. n.a.

17-Nov-16 Spartan ARC (SE Sask Assets) Asset $700 7,500 2% 39,300 14.4 $93,333 $17.81 8.2x

3-Aug-16 Spartan Kinwest (SE Sask Assets) Asset $24 450 7% n.a. n.a. $53,333 n.a. n.a.

25-Jul-16 TORC Zargon (SE Sask Assets) Asset $96 1,200 4% n.a. n.a. $79,583 n.a. n.a.

29-Jun-16 Spartan Halo / Other (SE Sask Assets) Asset $62 1,500 1% 7,176 13.1 $41,467 $8.67 5.7x

19-May-16 Spartan Wyatt Oil + Gas PrivateCo $77 1,330 24% 14,629 30.1 $57,895 $5.26 6.8x

Average - SE Sask $346 5,561 11% 43,700 17.0 $59,713 $10.84 6.0x

Median - SE Sask $154 2,350 7% 28,600 14.4 $61,163 $11.54 6.0x

Announce


Enterprise

Value


1. As defined on page 112. In Manitoba, licensing may not specify target formation, and as a result wells will be correctly

categorized after they are drilled

SE Mississippian Snapshot Last Announced Deal: $212MM in September 2019

Mississippian Current Last Month Last Year

(Jul-20) (Jun-20) (Jul-19)


Spud Count 3 0 77

-

50

100

150

200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

bo

e/d

)

Pre-2012 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Vermilion

Crescent Point

Tundra

TORC

Whitecap



TOP 5 OPERATORS BY HORIZONTAL WELL COUNT(1,2)



SE Saskatchewan Horizontal Wells

PRODUCTION BY DRILLING YEAR

1

2

1

2 2

1

2

1 1

2

1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe/d #Deals

1

2 2

1 1 1 1

2

1 1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Avg. $/boe #Deals

August 6, 2020

Cheryl Sandercock, P.Eng.

Managing Director

+1-403-515-1526

[email protected]

Joyce Kennedy, P.Geol.

Managing Director

+1-403-515-1576

[email protected]

Wendy Smith Low

Managing Director

+1-403-515-1528

[email protected]

Contacts

21

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GEOLOGY

Kathleen Dixon, MBA, P.Geol.

Vice President

+1-403-515-3654

[email protected]

Ryan Axani, P.Geol.

Vice President

+1-403-515-1512

[email protected]

COMMERCIAL

Mandy Edwards

Coordinator

+1-403-515-1581

[email protected]

ENGINEERING

Steve Kehoe, MESc, P.Eng.

Director

+1-403-515-3661

[email protected]

Jennifer Haskey, P.Eng.

Vice President

+1-403-515-1558

[email protected]

Maureen Jarvis, CET

Associate

+1-403-515-1537

[email protected]

Eric Fraser, P.Eng.

Associate

+1-403-515-3714

[email protected]

INVESTMENT BANKING

Devon Jonson

Associate

+1-403-515-1515

[email protected]

Preet Dhesi

Associate

+1-403-515-1571

[email protected]

GLOBAL MARKETS

Leigh MacComb

Associate

+1-403-515-3694

[email protected]

Tom Widdowson

Analyst

+1-403-515-3682

[email protected]

August 5, 2020

Price Change Price Change Price Sep20 Sep20-Dec20 Nov20-Mar21

Prompt $2.191 ($0.002) ($0.47) ($0.010) $2.11 Chi Citygate ($0.23) ($0.12) $0.06

CIG, Rockies ($0.35) ($0.30) ($0.27)

Sep20-Dec20 $2.548 $0.007 ($0.61) $0.001 $2.44 Dawn ($0.28) ($0.17) $0.01

Zero-Cost Collar $1.50/$4.47 $1.55/$3.78 Dominion ($0.75) ($0.65) ($0.45)

Zero-Cost Collar $1.40/$4.65 $1.45/$3.91 El Paso, SJ ($0.37) ($0.36) ($0.30)

HSC ($0.02) ($0.03) ($0.05)

Jan21-Dec21 $2.779 $0.012 ($0.76) $0.020 $2.54 Malin ($0.24) ($0.09) $0.04

Zero-Cost Collar $1.95/$4.27 $1.80/$3.54 NW Rockies ($0.28) ($0.15) ($0.02)

Zero-Cost 3-Way $1.50/$1.65/$5.87 $1.10/$1.75/$3.72 Panhandle ($0.42) ($0.39) ($0.32)

PGE Citygate $0.61 $0.55 $0.45

Nov20-Mar21 $2.952 $0.026 ($0.77) $0.006 $2.75 SoCal Gas ($0.04) $0.08 $0.22

Apr21-Oct21 $2.664 $0.006 ($0.76) $0.030 $2.40 Station 2 ($0.50) ($0.61) ($0.73)

Nov21-Mar22 $2.854 $0.004 ($0.69) $0.010 $2.73 Sumas ($0.21) $0.38 $0.66

Apr22-Oct22 $2.399 ($0.004) ($0.73) $0.000 $2.11 TCO ($0.42) ($0.41) ($0.31)

Jan22-Dec22 $2.553 ($0.001) ($0.72) $0.002 $2.31 TxOk ($0.14) ($0.16) ($0.17)

Nov22-Mar23 $2.675 $0.008 ($0.72) ($0.005) $2.47 W aha ($0.69) ($0.63) ($0.48)

Apr23-Oct23 $2.357 $0.014 ($0.73) ($0.005) $2.06 NBP (GBP/THERM) £0.20 £0.27 £0.36

Station 2 Storage (BCF) Current W /W Change Last Year5 Yr. Avg.Seasonal

Next Day (C$/GJ) US Natural Gas 3,241 0.81% 2,634 2,795

Last Close $2.2445 CAN Natural Gas 594 3.12% 445 529

D/D Change 3.94% Production (BCF/Day) Current Mo/Mo Change Last Year 5 Yr. Avg.

MTD Avg. $1.9046 US Dry Gas Production 85.9 0.08% 90.3 82.5

Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov -20 Dec-20 Commodities

Dry Gas Production 91.98 87.68 86.68 87.79 88.63 88.65 88.80 88.61 Calgary

LNG Sendout 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.17 0.17 (403) 515 3682

Net CAD Imports 3.50 3.53 3.55 4.28 4.15 5.65 5.58 5.42 Houston

Total Supply 95.68 91.37 90.35 92.19 92.90 94.42 94.55 94.20 (713) 546 9782

PowerBurn 25.57 27.08 36.39 41.49 40.39 35.75 25.46 24.07 New York

Industrial 20.91 20.01 19.76 20.23 20.41 20.60 22.81 24.50 (212) 605 1570

ResComm 24.39 15.97 11.73 11.11 11.55 13.61 34.55 43.75 London

Pipeloss 2.00 1.83 2.02 2.16 2.14 2.07 2.37 2.60 +44 20 766 8005

US Demand 85.85 76.29 79.73 85.28 85.24 82.82 100.59 110.94 Metals

Mexican Exports 4.70 4.71 5.29 5.41 5.82 5.77 5.18 5.12 New York

LNG Feedgas 8.27 6.70 4.54 4.88 4.94 5.01 10.22 10.91 (212) 605 1494

Total Demand 85.60 78.21 82.91 86.93 86.39 81.62 100.26 110.99

Current Weekly ChangeCanada Total 45 7.1%Canada Gas 33 3.1%

US Total 251 0.0%US GAS 69 1.5%

Cana Wood 6 20.0%DJ-Niobrara 4 0.0%Eagle Ford 12 0.0%Haynesvil le 32 0.0%Marcellus 25 0.0%Permian 124 -1.6%

Utica 6 0.0%Will iston 11 10.0%

86.88

6.49

5.53

$0.027

($0.010)

($0.015)

$0.004

21.25

29.69

93.70

86.20

Daily Gas Market Fundamentals (BMO Forecast)

2.11

21.14

Natural Gas Storage & Production (Bloomberg)

$2.0856

9.45%

5.26

0.12

88.32

$1.6842$1.9274

2.89%

$1.9077

($0.025)

Change

$0.002

Same Day (C$/GJ)

Aeco 5a Dawn

Next Day (US$/MM)

NYMEX Natural Gas (USD/MMBTU)

Cash Fixed Price Liquidations (NGX)

AECO Basis (USD/MMBTU) AECO (CAD/GJ)

($0.008)

$0.033

$0.029

Natural Gas Basis (USD/MMBTU)

($0.001)

Daily Market Summary ReportCommodities | Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities

This material has been prepared with the assistance of employees of Bank of Montreal (“BMO”) who are involved in derivatives sales and marketing efforts. Accordingly, it should be considered to be a solicitation of derivatives business generally and not a research report that reflects the views of disinterested research analysts.Notwithstanding the foregoing, this material should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for any particular product or services (including, without limitation, any commodities, securities or other financial instruments). We are not soliciting any specific action based on this material. It is for the general information of our clients. It does not constitute a recommendation or a suggestion that any investment or strategy referenced herein may be suitable for you. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual clients. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your unique circumstances, or otherwise constitutes an opinion or a recommendation to you. BMO is not providing advice regarding the value or advisability of trading in commodity interests, including futures contractsand commodity options or any other activity which would cause BMO or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. BMO is not undertaking to act as a swap advisor to you or in your best interests and you, to the extent applicable, will rely solely on advice from your qualified independent representative in making hedging or trading decisions. This material is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Any recipient of these materials should conduct its own independent analysis of the matters referred to herein, together with its qualified independent representative, if applicable. The recipient should seek advice based on its particular circumstances from its own independent financial, tax, legal, accounting and other professional advisors (including, without limitation, its qualified independent representative, if applicable). These materials are confidential and proprietary to, and may not be reproduced, disseminated or referred to, in whole or in part without the prior consent of BMO. Information presented in this material has been obtained or derived from sources believed by BMO to be reliable, but BMO does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. BMO assumes no responsibility for verification of the information in these materials, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and BMO accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, these materials. BMO assumes no obligation to correct or update these materials. These materials do not contain all information that may be required to evaluate any transaction or matter and information may be available to BMO and/or its affiliates that is not reflected herein. BMO Capital Markets is a trade name used by BMO Financial Group for the wholesale banking businesses of Bank of Montreal, BMO Harris Bank N.A, Bank of Montreal Ireland Plc, and Bank of Montreal (China) Co. Ltd. and the institutional broker dealer businesses of BMO Capital Markets Corp., BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Limited and BMO Capital Markets GKST Inc. in the U.S., BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. in Canada, Europe and Asia, BMO Capital Markets Limited in Europe and Australia and BMO Advisors Private Limited in India.

http://www.bmocm.com/products/marketrisk/commodity/

US Gas Production Bcf/d (Bloomberg) US Storage Bcf (Bloomberg)

GFS Ensembel L48 Forecast L48 Res/Comm Forecast Baker Hughes Rig Count

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

J F M A M J J A S O N D

201 8 201 9 202 0 BM O Fo recast

0

500

100 0

150 0

200 0

250 0

300 0

350 0

400 0

450 0

J J J J J J J F F F F F F F MMMMMMMM AA A AA A AMMMMMMMM J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J A A A AA A AA S S S S S S S S OO O O OO O N NN N NN N N DD D D DD D

5yr Ran ge 5 Yr Average 201 8 201 9 202 0

Price Change LLS Midland Edm SW WCS Edm C5 Price Change Price Change Price Change Spread

Prompt Future $42.19 $0.49 ($3.45) ($11.80) ($2.63) $45.17 $0.740 $1.2631 $0.00

Calendar Sep $42.52 $0.53 $1.11 $0.01 $45.12 $0.669 $56.46 $0.42 $1.2810 $0.01 $1.2550

Sep20-Dec20 $42.97 $0.56 $1.20 $0.08 ($5.44) ($13.73) ($2.22) $46.16 $0.73 $57.05 $0.47 $1.3092 $0.01 $1.2336

Zero-Cost Collar $35.00/$48.44 $35.00/$54.02 $40.00/$66.68 $1.421/$1.200

Zero-Cost Collar $25.00/$55.02 $30.00/$58.05 $30.00/$71.71 $1.520/$1.100

Jan21-Dec21 $44.48 $0.42 $1.51 $0.37 ($5.85) ($15.00) ($3.17) $47.95 $0.55 $59.07 $0.27 $1.3989 $0.01 $1.2437

Zero-Cost Collar $35.00/$51.34 $30.00/$63.02 $40.00/$71.51 $1.040/$1.750

Zero-Cost 3-Way $25/$35/$54.41 $1.052/$1.75/$2.00

Oct20-Dec20 $43.12 $0.58 $1.23 $0.10 ($5.44) ($14.37) ($2.08) $46.35 $0.73 $57.24 $0.48 $1.3583 $0.01 $1.2308

Jan21-Mar21 $43.85 $0.54 $1.43 $0.27 ($6.10) ($14.77) ($1.74) $47.22 $0.68 $58.20 $0.43 $1.3795 $0.01 $1.2535

Apr21-Jun21 $44.38 $0.45 $1.53 $0.38 ($5.78) ($14.00) ($3.05) $47.81 $0.58 $58.92 $0.31 $1.3689 $0.01 $1.2422

Jan21-Jun21 $44.11 $0.50 $1.48 $1.16 ($5.45) ($14.38) ($2.39) $47.52 $0.63 $58.56 $0.37 $1.4290 $0.01 $1.2452

Jul21-Dec21 $44.85 $0.34 $1.54 $0.42 ($6.08) ($15.63) ($3.96) $48.39 $0.47 $59.57 $0.16

Sep20 Sep20-Dec20 Jan21-Dec21 Spot Spot Change Storage (MMBbls) Current W/W Change Last Year 5 Yr. Avg.

USGC Diesel $1.2260 $1.2328 $1.3426 Gold $2,036 CAD/USD $1.3254 -$0.0111 Crude Ex SPR 518.6 -1.4% 439 460

USGC Jet $1.1085 $1.1142 $1.2602 Silv er $27 USD/EUR $1.1863 $0.0060 Crude at Cushing 52.0 1.0% 47 44

NYMEX RBOB $1.1537 $1.1441 $1.2693 Platinum $969 USD/GBP $1.3114 $0.0043 Mogas 247.8 0.2% 235 237

NYMEX 3:2:1 Crack $0.1837 $0.1760 $0.2535 Palladium $2,176 1 Mo BA's 0.4950 -0.0025 Distillates 180.0 0.9% 137 138

Purity Ethane $0.2225 $0.2163 $0.2014 3 Mo 3 Mo BA's 0.5325 -0.0012

Conway Propane $0.4975 $0.5138 $0.4896 Aluminium $1,767 6 Mo BA's 0.7350 -0.0012 Production (MMBbls) Current Mo/Mo Change Last Year 5 Yr. Avg.

Mt Bel Propane Non-LST $0.5025 $0.5053 $0.4703 Copper $6,495 CAD Prime 2.4500 0.0000 OPEC 22.2 -7.95% 29.1 30.8

Mt Bel N.Butane Non-LST $0.5350 $0.5353 $0.5009 Zinc $2,409 US 3 Mo Libor 0.2485 -0.0003 Russia 9.3 -2.04% 11.2 11.2

Mt Bel I.Butane Non-LST $0.5550 $0.5553 $0.5164 Nickle $14,419 US 11.0 0.00% 12.3 10.9

Mt Bel C5 Non-LST $0.8275 $0.8450 $0.8673 Lead $1,933 Rest of World 48.9 14.12% 47.4 45.9

Crude, Products and Metals Pricing

NYMEX WTI (USD/BBL)

August 5, 2020

NYH ULSD (USD/GAL) Diesel CAD WTI (CAD/BBL)ICE Brent (USD/BBL)Oil Spread Differential (USD/BBL)

Other Refined Products & NGLs (USD/GAL)

Crude Market Fundamentals

Metals Exchange & Lending Rates Crude Storage & Production (Bloomberg)

Daily Market Summary ReportCommodities | Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities

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Annual Supply & Demand Balance (MMbbls), North American Crude Storage (MMbbls) US Refinery Utilization EIA

Pricing Differentials (USD/bbl)NYMEX Futures CurveUS Crude Imports (MMbpd), EIA

-$4

-$2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

Sept-20 Mar-23 Sept-25

Delta Today 1 Mo Ago

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20

WTI-WCS BRENT-WTI Brent WTI WCS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

07/12/19 07/10/20 07/19/19 07/17/20 07/26/19 07/24/20 08/02/19 07/31/20

Tota

l Dra

w o

f -73

73Cu

shin

g Bu

ild o

f 532

Cushing Max

0

2

4

6

8

10US IMPORTS CAD Imports CAD Heavy Imports

*Heavy imports reported on a lagging basis

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20

US TOTAL PAD III PAD IITotal Crude Last Year

Cushing Last Year

Total Crude Last Year

Cushing Last Year

0.83

0.57

-0.44

-1.48

0.00

-0.68

0.03

-0.56

0.03

-0.91

0.20

1.14

0.04

-0.84

0.83

-0.16

0.97

-2.0 0

-1.5 0

-1.0 0

-0.5 0

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Crude Surplus

Crude Shortage

Documents

HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS ISSUE: Updated to market close on ... · Last Close $2.2445 CAN Natural Gas 594 3.12% 445 529 D/D Change 3.94% Production (BCF/Day) Current Mo/Mo Change Last Year