Higher IPO Graded Companies Continue to Command Higher PE

8/7/2019 Higher IPO Graded Companies Continue to Command Higher PE

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EQUITY INSIGHTSHigher IPO gradedcompanies continue tocommand higher P/E:CRISIL Equities

Pravesh RawatAnalyst, CRISIL Equities

Kamna MotwaniAnalyst, CRISIL Equities

Chetan MajithiaHead, CRISIL Equities

April 2011


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Higher IPO graded companies continue to command higher P/E: CRISILEquities

CRISIL Equities fourth consecutive analysis on listed initial public offerings (IPOs) graded by rating agenciesconcludes that companies with higher IPO grades continue to command higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples.

This conclusion mirrors the results of similar studies conducted in May 2009, January 2010 and July 2010 (please

visit www.crisil.com for detailed articles).The continuous linkage of the IPO grade and P/E multiples over thepast three years endorses the importance of the assessment of fundamentals while investing in equities. CRISIL

IPO grading is aimed at providing guidance to investors on fundamentals of companies that are targeting the

primary market. Grades are meant to be used by investors in conjunction with their personal risk appetite, price

and return considerations.

IPO grades and P/E multiples: The correlation remains strong

Grades assigned to companies during an IPO and the P/E multiples commanded by them continue to exhibit

strong positive correlation. CY10 was the third full year since IPO grading was made mandatory. CRISIL

Equities annual study on IPO grading indicates that the companies with higher IPO grades command higher

P/E multiples and vice versa. This time the study was carried out on a larger database of 117 companies

graded by all rating agencies compared to 71 and 56 companies taken in the studies done in July 2010 and

January 2010, respectively.

CRISIL Equities observes that companies with an IPO grade of 5/5 (indicating strong fundamentals relative to

other listed securities in India) enjoy an average P/E multiple of 18.39x vis--vis 10.13x for companies with an

IPO grade of 1/5 (indicating poor fundamentals). Companies with IPO grades of 2/5, 3/5 and 4/5 traded ataverage P/E multiples of 10.81x, 17.82x and 18.1x, respectively. It is interesting to note that 5/5 graded

companies traded at almost 80% premium to 1/5 graded companies. Also, there is a significant differential in

the P/E multiples assigned to companies with above average fundamentals (4/5 and 5/5 grades) vis-a-vis the

companies graded below average fundamentals (2/5 and 1/5 grades) signaling that over time the market

clearly differentiates the companies with good fundamental from those with below average fundamentals.

Table 1: Current P/E multiplesIPO grades

Average

P/E multiple (x)

Number of

companies

1/5 10.13 112/5 10.81 32

3/5 17.82 46

4/5 18.10 26

5/5 18.39 2

Total 117

Source: CRISIL Equities

For the purpose of this study, CRISIL Equities has considered the following parameters:

All companies listed between May 2007 (IPO grading was made mandatory w.e.f. May 2007) and

December 2010 have been considered in order to provide sufficient time for prices to stabilise post thelisting. During this period, 139 IPO graded companies have been listed.


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Stocks with negative P/Es (13 companies) and those trading at P/Es of more than 50x (five companies)

were excluded from the analysis since they are considered as outliers. Four companies did not report

their quarterly numbers.

The closing market price as on March 31, 2011 for the aforementioned companies was taken into account

for P/E calculation. For the purpose of computation of earnings per share (EPS), diluted EPS reported by

these companies for the trailing four quarters, i.e. quarter ending March 2010 to quarter ending

December 2010 have been used.

How have P/E multiples moved over the past three years?

During the first study carried out by CRISIL in May 2009, average P/E multiples across all grades were lower

compared to our second study (dated January 2010) as the markets were just emerging from one of the

biggest global economic slowdowns. The S&P CNX NIFTY (NIFTY) was pegged at 4,270 as on 20 May 2009

(the date of the study).

However, within seven months, the markets had recovered with NIFTY at 5,201 as on 31 December, 2009.

The P/E multiples had improved by almost 30-35% across all grades; companies with 4/5 grade were trading

at around 25.80x (refer second study dated January 2010).

Our current study reveals that when compared to the multiples in May 2009, the average P/E multiple of lower

graded companies (1/5 and 2/5 grades) is lower while that of higher graded companies (3/5 and 4/5 grades) is

higher. CRISIL Equities believes that the investors have shown more confidence in the higher graded

companies over a longer time horizon, which has resulted in such a trend.

Table 2: P/E multiple comparisonStudy 1 Study 2 Study 3 Study 4

Date of study May 2009 January 2010 July 2010 April 2011

Price as on May 20, 2009 December 31, 2009 June 30, 2010 March 31, 2011

NIFTY 4,270 5,201 5,312 5,834

P/E ratio

NIFTY 19.7 17.7 15.6 15.2

IPO Grade 1/5 10.60 14.80 11.20 10.13

IPO Grade 2/5 12.10 17.60 17.40 10.81

IPO Grade 3/5 15.40 20.90 23.50 17.82

IPO Grade 4/5 15.70 25.80 28.00 18.10IPO Grade 5/5 NA* NA* NA* 18.39


* No IPO grade 5/5 company was listed

Why higher IPO graded companies command higher P/E multiples?

IPO grading is an assessment of the fundamentals of a company relative to all the listed securities in India.

Industry prospects, companys positioning in the industry, management quality as well the corporate

governance practices are assessed before a grade is assigned.

Higher IPO graded companies typically tend to operate in higher growth industries, have superiormanagement strengths and follow good corporate governance practices. Such characteristics tend to

command better valuations, as reflected in higher P/E multiples. The market price of a stock can be influenced

by factors other than fundamentals, such as liquidity and market sentiments. Despite this, the positive


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correlation consistently observed between IPO grades and P/E multiples reflects the broad similarity in the

assessment of fundamentals by rating agencies and informed investors, thereby pointing to the efficacy of the

grading exercise.

Has the quality of IPOs improved in CY10?

Since IPO grading was made mandatory, 139 companies have tapped the equity market as of December

2010. CY10 saw the highest number of IPO graded companies that got listed in any particular year post IPO

grading being made mandatory. IPOs of 67 companies were listed in CY10 compared to 16 in CY09, 39 in

CY08 and 17 in CY07 (May-December). CY10 also saw the first listing of an IPO grade 5/5 company - Coal

India Ltd followed by MOIL Ltd.

For assessing quality of the IPOs, we looked at the grades assigned to the IPOs as the grade showcases a

companys fundamental strength. Fundamentals play a critical role in the long-term shareholders wealth and,

hence, IPO grades are a critical input in the investors decision-making process

In CY10, 30% of the total companies graded had an IPO grade higher than 3/5 compared to 19% in CY09 and

13% in CY08. Also, only 4.5% of the total companies listed in CY10 had an IPO grade of 1/5, down from 13%

in CY09 and CY08.

Table 3: Year-wise distribution of IPO gradesYear IPO grade 1/5 IPO grade 2/5 IPO grade 3/5 IPO grade 4/5 IPO grade 5/5*

No. of

companies

CY07 35.3% 11.8% 29.4% 23.5% 0.0% 17

CY08 12.8% 28.2% 46.2% 12.8% 0.0% 39

CY09 12.5% 18.8% 50.0% 18.8% 0.0% 16

CY10 4.5% 32.8% 32.8% 26.9% 3.0% 67

Total 139


* No IPO grade 5/5 company was listed prior to CY10

Why P/E multiple

The following parameters are considered while assigning an IPO grade to a company:

Industry prospects: The companys growth prospects in the industry for the next four-five years

Business prospects: The companys expected returns from an equity perspective for the next four-fiveyears

Management

Corporate governance

While no specific credence is assigned to any one parameter, a company operating in a growing industry

would weigh higher on the grading scale, due to the expected benefits from the robust industry prospects,

provided all other parameters are equal. A higher industry and earnings growth for the company would

translate into a higher multiple that an investor would be willing to shell out. Hence, these companies will

invariably command a higher P/E multiple.

The only exception in the above analysis will be where the corporate governance structure is inadequate.

Since corporate governance is a critical parameter in the overall grading exercise, a company with a poor


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corporate governance structure will rank lower on the IPO grading scale despite a robust business and

financial performance outlook.

Conclusion

The above analysis confirms that there is a strong correlation between the IPO grades and P/E multiples.

Higher IPO graded companies will most likely command higher P/E multiples in the long run as fundamentals

will overrule the quintessential emotions of greed and fear. While the two emotions will prevail, giving grades

their due weightage is now a well articulated fact.


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.Annexure 1: List of IPO graded companies used by CRISIL Equities for theanalysis

Sr.No. Name of the company

IPO

grade

Grading

agency

Date of

listing

Price on

31-Mar-

2011

Trailing

12-M EPS P/E (x)

1 Bhagwati Banquets And Hotels 1/5 CARE 17-May-07 104.45 3.3 31.3

2 Ankit Metal & Power Limited 1/5 ICRA 10-Jul-07 20.55 6.3 3.2

3 Celestial Labs Limited 1/5 CRISIL / CARE 17-Jul-07 29.5 2.0 14.9

4 Varun Industries Limited 1/5 CRISIL 22-Nov-07 184.3 11.2 16.4

5 Allied Computers Intertiol (Asia) Ltd 1/5 ICRA 23-Nov-07 2.93 0.6 4.9

6 Suryachakra Power Corporation Ltd 2/5 CRISIL 23-Jul-07 12.19 0.6 19.3

7 Consolidated Construction Consortium Ltd 3/5 ICRA 15-Oct-07 49.15 5.0 9.9

8 Religare Enterprises Limited 3/5 ICRA 21-Nov-07 484.1 11.7 41.5

9 Empee Distilleries Limited 3/5 CARE 26-Nov-07 107.3 8.5 12.6

10 Brigade Enterprises Limited 3/5 ICRA 31-Dec-07 89.15 4.2 21.1

11 eClerx Services Limited 3/5 CRISIL 31-Dec-07 639.35 25.8 24.8

12 Central Bank of India 4/5 CARE 21-Aug-07 138.35 23.4 5.9

13 Edelweiss Capital Limited 4/5 CRISIL 12-Dec-07 38.8 3.1 12.7

14 Jyothi Laboratories Limited 4/5 CARE 19-Dec-07 219.5 10.2 21.4

15 Transformers and Rectifiers India 4/5 CARE 28-Dec-07 244.35 40.0 6.1

16 Niraj Cement Structurals Ltd 1/5 CARE 19-Jun-08 33.65 6.44 5.23

17 First Winner Industries Limited 1/5 CARE 8-Jul-08 20.5 3.41 6.01

18 Resurgere Mines & Minerals India Ltd 1/5 CRISIL 1-Sep-08 0.75 0.32 2.32

19 Chemcel Biotech Ltd 1/5 ICRA 13-Oct-08 5.02 1.04 4.83

20 Bang Overseas Limited 2/5 CARE 20-Feb-08 34.45 2.56 13.47

21 Sita Shree Food Products Ltd 2/5 CARE 7-Apr-08 5.8 0.54 10.74

22 Aishwarya Telecom 2/5 CARE 7-May-08 9.61 2.91 3.30

23 Anu's Laboratories Ltd 2/5 ICRA 4-Jun-08 3.08 0.88 3.50

24 Baf Pharmaceuticals Limited 2/5 ICRA 27-Jun-08 44 1.55 28.34

25 Somi Conveyor Beltings Limited 2/5 CARE 24-Jul-08 15 1.32 11.37

26 Alkali Metals Ltd 2/5 ICRA 6-Nov-08 47.9 6.42 7.46

27 BGR Energy Systems Limited 3/5 ICRA 3-Jan-08 480.45 27.98 17.17

28 Future Capital Holdings Limited 3/5 ICRA 1-Feb-08 137.75 9.33 14.77

29 Cords Cable Industries Limited 3/5 CARE 13-Feb-08 30.25 3.66 8.26

30 KNR Constructions Limited 3/5 CRISIL 18-Feb-08 98.9 23.45 4.22

31 Shriram EPC Limited 3/5 CRISIL 20-Feb-08 158.4 10.65 14.87

32 Tulsi Extrusion Ltd 3/5 CARE 25-Feb-08 17.3 5.09 3.40

33 Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd 3/5 CARE 12-Mar-08 245.5 27.06 9.07

34 V-Guard Industries Limited 3/5 CRISIL 13-Mar-08 162.05 8.53 18.99

35 Titagarh Wagons Limited 3/5 Fitch 21-Apr-08 327.3 32.00 10.23

36 Gokul Refoils and Solvent Limited 3/5 ICRA 4-Jun-08 98.1 2.92 33.54

37 Archidply Industries Limited 3/5 ICRA 4-Jul-08 16.9 3.59 4.70

38 KSK Energy Ventures Limited 3/5 Fitch 14-Jul-08 100.65 4.92 20.46

39 Birla Cotsyn (India) Limited 3/5 CARE 30-Jul-08 0.6 0.08 7.50

40 Vishal Information Technologies Ltd 3/5 CARE 11-Aug-08 9.1 8.50 1.07

41 Nu Tek India Limited 3/5 CRISIL 27-Aug-08 12.2 5.29 2.3042 20 Microns Limited 3/5 ICRA 3-Oct-08 38.7 4.19 9.23

43 Precision Pipes and Profiles Company Ltd 4/5 CRISIL 11-Jan-08 92.25 9.70 9.51

44 Reliance Power Limited 4/5 CRISIL / ICRA 11-Feb-08 124.4 2.85 43.60

45 OnMobile Global Limited 4/5 CRISIL 19-Feb-08 245.25 7.36 33.33


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IPO

grade

Grading

agency

Date of

listing

Price on

31-Mar-

2011

Trailing

12-M EPS P/E (x)

46 IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd 4/5 Fitch 25-Feb-08 200.5 11.60 17.29

47 Gammon Infrastructure Pvt Ltd 4/5 CARE 3-Apr-08 17.65 0.35 49.8048 Edserv Softsystems Ltd 1/5 CARE 2-Mar-09 134.45 14.94 9.00

49 Excel Infoways Ltd 1/5 CARE 3-Aug-09 30.2 7.14 4.23

50 Raj Oil Mills Ltd 2/5 ICRA 12-Aug-09 31.7 7.97 3.98

51 Thinksoft Global Service Ltd 2/5 ICRA 26-Oct-09 56.45 8.83 6.39

52 Astec Lifesciences Ltd 2/5 CARE 25-Nov-09 45.2 10.98 4.12

53 NHPC Ltd 3/5 ICRA 1-Sep-09 23.65 1.84 12.88

54 Jindal Cotex Ltd 3/5 Brickwork 22-Sep-09 103.35 3.80 27.21

55 Globus Spirits Ltd 3/5 CARE 23-Sep-09 142.25 14.64 9.72

56 Euro Multivision 3/5 CARE 15-Oct-09 13.5 0.43 31.51

57 Den Network Ltd 3/5 ICRA 24-Nov-09 80.15 2.69 29.83

58 Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd 4/5 Fitch 16-Jul-09 358.6 14.34 25.01

59 Oil India Ltd 4/5 CRISIL 30-Sep-09 1291.35 113.78 11.35

60 Cox and Kings (India) Ltd 4/5 CARE 11-Dec-09 408.3 26.13 15.63

61 Tarapur Transformers Ltd 1/5 CRISIL 18-May-10 23.45 1.49 15.74

62 Sea TV Network Ltd 1/5 ICRA 14-Oct-10 20.3 0.87 23.39

63 MBL Infrastructure 1/5 CRISIL / ICRA 11-Jan-10 178 28.12 6.33

64 Infinite Computers 2/5 CRISIL 3-Feb-10 162 20.18 8.03

65 Syncom Healthcare Ltd 2/5 CARE 15-Feb-10 32.25 3.29 9.80

66 DB Realty 2/5 CRISIL 24-Feb-10 114.9 10.36 11.09

67 Emmbi Polyarns Ltd 2/5 CARE 24-Feb-10 13.4 1.07 12.52

68 ARSS Infrastructure Projects Ltd 2/5 CARE 3-Mar-10 517.1 70.48 7.34

69 Texmo Pipes & Products Ltd 2/5 CARE 10-Mar-10 31.8 6.01 5.29

70 Pradip Overseas Ltd 2/5 ICRA 5-Apr-10 81.85 22.27 3.67

71 Goenka Diamond & Jewels Limited 2/5 ICRA 16-Apr-10 57.25 18.44 3.10

72 Aster Silicates Ltd 2/5 Brickwork 28-Jul-10 24.9 5.14 4.85

73 Midfield Industries Ltd 2/5 Brickwork 4-Aug-10 51.8 9.78 5.29

74 Prakash Steelage Ltd 2/5 CARE 25-Aug-10 143.45 15.84 9.06

75 Microsec Financial Services Ltd 2/5 CRISIL 5-Oct-10 38.9 12.58 3.09

76 Cantabil Retail India Ltd 2/5 ICRA 12-Oct-10 38.05 17.40 2.19

77 Bedmutha Industries Limited 2/5 ICRA 14-Oct-10 112.15 8.29 13.53

78 Commercial Engineers & Body Builders Co 2/5 CRISIL 18-Oct-10 46.65 4.48 10.42

79 BS Transcomm Ltd 2/5 ICRA 27-Oct-10 89.9 16.65 5.4080 Gyscoal Alloys Ltd 2/5 CARE 27-Oct-10 14.65 6.93 2.12

81 RPP Infra Projects Ltd 2/5 Fitch 6-Dec-10 66.35 5.24 12.67

82 Ravikumar Distilleries Limited 2/5 CARE 27-Dec-10 37.1 1.36 27.19

83 Parabolic Drugs Limited 2/5 CARE /

Brickwork

1-Jul-10 42.4 15.48 2.74

84 Vascon Engineers Ltd 3/5 CRISIL 12-Feb-10 87.9 6.71 13.10

85 Thangamayil Jewellery Ltd 3/5 Brickwork 19-Feb-10 161 16.48 9.77

86 Aqua Logistics Ltd 3/5 Brickwork 23-Feb-10 17.7 12.30 1.44

87 Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd 3/5 CRISIL 8-Mar-10 251.5 27.06 9.30

88 Man Infraconstruction Ltd 3/5 CRISIL 11-Mar-10 143.05 19.97 7.16

89 DQ Entertainment (Intertiol) Ltd 3/5 Fitch 29-Mar-10 59.1 4.42 13.38

90 Shree Ganesh Jewellery House Ltd 3/5 CARE 9-Apr-10 156.55 36.18 4.33

91 Intrasoft Technologies Limited 3/5 CARE 12-Apr-10 67.5 8.00 8.43

92 Talwalkars Better Value Fitness Ltd 3/5 CARE 10-May-10 218.55 4.43 49.33


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IPO

grade

Grading

agency

Date of

listing

Price on

31-Mar-

2011

Trailing

12-M EPS P/E (x)

93 Mandhana Industries Ltd 3/5 CRISIL 19-May-10 240 18.21 13.18

94 Jaypee Infratech Ltd 3/5 ICRA /CARE 21-May-10 57.1 4.33 13.1895 Technofab Engineering Ltd 3/5 Fitch 16-Jul-10 147 25.45 5.78

96 Career Point Infosystems Ltd 3/5 CARE 6-Oct-10 341 14.71 23.18

97 Ramky Infrastructure Ltd 3/5 CRISIL 8-Oct-10 288.5 26.07 11.07

98 Prestige Estates Projects Ltd 3/5 ICRA 27-Oct-10 126.95 5.61 22.62

99 Gravita India Ltd 3/5 Brickwork 16-Nov-10 342.15 11.78 29.06

100 Claris Lifesciences Ltd 3/5 Fitch 20-Dec-10 167.1 22.16 7.54

101 United Bank of India 3/5 ICRA / CARE 18-Mar-10 108.3 2.53 42.85

102 JSW Energy Ltd 4/5 CARE 4-Jan-10 72.35 5.16 14.02

103 Godrej Properties 4/5 ICRA 5-Jan-10 671 19.50 34.41

104 D B Corp Ltd 4/5 CARE 6-Jan-10 250.6 10.62 23.61

105 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd 4/5 Fitch 30-Mar-10 229.7 20.08 11.44

106 Persistant System Ltd 4/5 CRISIL 6-Apr-10 375.25 35.74 10.50

107 Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd 4/5 CARE 20-May-10 21.25 2.37 8.98

108 SKS Microfinance Ltd 4/5 CARE 16-Aug-10 542.95 32.98 16.46

109 Bajaj Corp Ltd 4/5 CRISIL 18-Aug-10 468.4 33.57 13.95

110 Eros International Media Ltd 4/5 CARE 6-Oct-10 131.35 11.53 11.40

111 Tecpro Systems Ltd 4/5 CRISIL 12-Oct-10 268.5 25.10 10.70

112 VA Tech Wabag Limited 4/5 ICRA 13-Oct-10 1215.3 52.79 23.02

113 Ashoka Buildcon Limited 4/5 CRISIL 14-Oct-10 290.55 17.59 16.52

114 Oberoi Realty Ltd 4/5 CRISIL 20-Oct-10 237.95 15.64 15.21

115 A2Z Maintenance & Engineer ing Services Ltd 4/5 CARE 23-Dec-10 280 17.71 15.81

116 Coal India Ltd 5/5 CRISIL 4-Nov-10 347.5 15.55 22.34

117 MOIL Ltd 5/5 CARE 15-Dec-10 401 27.76 14.45


Note: Lowest IPO grade is taken for companies which were assigned different grades by different agencies


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Annexure 2: IPO grading

The IPO grading methodology includes an assessment of industry and business prospects, financial performance,

corporate governance and management quality. As a part of the IPO grading exercise, CRISIL also looks at the

shareholding structure, board composition, typical board processes, disclosure standards and related party

transactions. The IPO grading process is a qualitative and relative assessment of a companys fundamentals

broadly based on the below parameters:

Table: Broad parameters on which companies fundamentals are assessed

The grade is assigned on CRISIL Equities assessment of the company on the aforementioned parameters.

Though there are no pre-defined weights assigned to the parameters, if a company scores below the minimum

acceptance level in any one of the parameters, it may be assigned a lower grade. For e.g., if the company has

excellent business prospects but inadequate corporate governance structure, then the overall grade may be low.

Post the rigorous evaluation, companies are assigned grades on a five-point scale where the highest grade of 5/5

signifies that fundamentals of the company are strong relative to the listed securities in India and vice versa.

Table: Five-point scaleGrade Fundamentals

1/5 Poor

2/5 Below average

3/5 Average

4/5 Above average

5/5 Strong

Industry and

Business Prospects

Financial

Performance

and Outlook

Management

Capabilities

Corporate

Governance

Industry dynamics, demand-supply outlook

Companys position in the industry and growth prospects

Key risks and mitigants

Track record of the management

Evaluation of business strategy

Track record of market domination, product innovation, successful diversification

Past financial performance

Key sensitivities

Scenario and stress analysis

Earnings forecast

Assessment of companys disclosure norms and transparency of reporting

Board practices and quality of d iscussions

Profile of the board members

Assessment of the independence of the board from the management


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E-mail: [email protected] www.crisil.com

itu Samar

ead, Market Development &Communications

RISIL Limited

hone: +91-22-3342 1838

obile: +91-9820061934

ax: +91-22-3342 1810/1830

mail: [email protected]

hetan Majithia

ead, Equities

RISIL Equities

hone: +91-22-3342 4148

obile: +91-9769200201


udhir Nair

ead, Equities

RISIL Equities

hone: +91-22-3342 3526

obile: +91-9820860482


MumbaiCRISIL House

Central Avenue

Hiranandani Business Park, Powai

Mumbai - 400 076, India.

Phone: +91 (22) 3342 8026/29/35

Fax: +91 (22) 3342 8088

New DelhiThe Mira, G-1, 1st Floor

Plot No. 1 & 2, Ishwar Nagar

Near Okhla Crossing

New Delhi - 110 065, India.

Phone: +91 (11) 4250 5100, 2693 0117-121

Fax: +91 (11) 2684 2212/ 13

ChennaiMezzanine Floor, Thapar House

43 / 44, Montieth Road

Egmore

Chennai - 600 008, India.

Phone: +91 (44) 2854 6205/06, 2854 6093

Fax: +91 (44) 2854 7531

BengaluruW-101, Sunrise Chambers

22, Ulsoor Road

Bengaluru - 560 042, India.

Phone: +91 (80)2558 0899/2559 4802

Fax: +91 (80) 2559 4801

KolkataHORIZONBlock B 4th Floor

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For further details or more information,please contact:

Client Servicing CRISIL ResearchCRISIL House

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Phone +91 (22) 3342 3561/ 62

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Documents

Higher IPO Graded Companies Continue to Command Higher PE