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12/04/2014
HECC FUNDING AND ACHIEVEMENT SUBCOMMITTEE
2
CONTEXT: ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT
Source: ECONW Analysis of NSC, OUS and CCWD data
3
1. Determine the cost of shifting the educational attainment of young Oregonians from the current rates to a steady-state rate of 40-40 by the age of 28 by the year 2025
2. Provide an interactive model which demonstrates key leverage points, educational pathways, productivity and associate costs
3. Estimate total cost, permitting the apportionment of state, local and student/family on a yearly/biennial basis
4. Identify areas of focus and strategic investment / partnership with stakeholder groups to achieve goals
GOALS
4
Focused on f low of students (age cohorts)
Focused on public universities and community colleges
Out-of-state and private post-secondary will be assumed to remain constant in enrollment and degree production
Student Credit Hours will be the unit of analysis
Assume cost drivers will not outpace inflation
Productivity will be assumed to be f lat in determining costs
10-year post high school for “flow” period
ASSUMPTIONS
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FLOW MODEL
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Determine pathways of students and actual f lows in magnitude and timing, into, between and out of public post-secondary institutions
Identify total cost to produce total credit hours (cost per credit hour)
Apportion cost per credit hour
Use f low of students to trace accumulation of credits and associated costs, including: Investment in tuition and fees by students
Investment in cost of living by students
Investment in students from the state
Investment in students from local sources
TURNING FLOW MODEL INTO COST MODEL
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High School Remedial
*Determine Coefficients
Co
mm
un
ity
Co
llege
Course Level
Lower Div Lower Div Upper Div Upper Div
Un
iver
sity
Ce
rt
AA
BA
/BS
Du
al C
red
itD
ual
Cre
dit
Du
al C
red
it
BA+
AA & Cert
HighSchool
Diploma
Stranded Investment
COST MODEL
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Use flow of students to show actual pathways of
students
Provide information on simplified set of
“typical” student pathways and associated costs
Show where and how many students are entering
the system and their progress over a ten year
timeframe (enter the “stock”)
TURNING FLOW MODEL INTO STUDENT PATHWAYS
9
COST MODEL
High School Remedial
*Determine Coefficients
Co
mm
un
ity
Co
llege
Course Level
Lower Div Lower Div Upper Div Upper Div
Un
iver
sity
Ce
rt
AA
BA
/BS
Du
al C
red
itD
ual
Cre
dit
Du
al C
red
it
BA+
AA & Cert
HighSchool
Diploma
Stranded Investment
$
$
$
10
Total cohort size
Total cohort flow through, between and out of sectors
Total SCH by level/sector
Total revenue (cost to student, state and local government)
Total cohort attainment
KNOWN OR ASCERTAINABLE INFORMATION
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Low State Investment High State Investment High Need Based Aid
State Share Need Based Aid Student Share
TOTAL COST
12
High School Remedial
*Determine Coefficients
Com
mun
ity
Colle
ge
Course Level
Lower Div Lower Div Upper Div Upper Div
Uni
vers
ity
Cert
AA
BA/B
S
Dua
l Cre
dit
Dua
l Cre
dit
Dua
l Cre
dit
BA+
AA & Cert
HighSchool
Diploma
Stranded Investment
TELLING THE STORY
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If we boiled down all of the flow
between pathways where do ten “typical”
students end up currently?
TELLING THE STORY
What investment is made by the students, the
state and local governments in
their education?
Given the current cost and productivity
what would the cost of maintaining the
40-40 flow be?
14
1. Determine the cost of shifting the educational attainment of young Oregonians from the current rates to a steady-state rate of 40-40 by the age of 28 by the year 2025
2. Provide an interactive model which demonstrates key leverage points, educational pathways, productivity and associate costs
3. Estimate total cost, permitting the apportionment of state, local and student/family on a yearly/biennial basis
4. Identify areas of focus and strategic investment / partnership with stakeholder groups to achieve goals
GOALS
15
WHAT DOES SUCCESS LOOK LIKE?
Source: ECONW Analysis of NSC, OUS and CCWD data *For illustrative purposes only
