Head, Aging Aircraft ProgramNaval Air Systems Command

Robert P. ErnstRobert P. Ernst

The Redesign DilemmaThe Redesign Dilemma

AgendaAgenda

Decision factors & options Decision factors & options for the program managerfor the program manager

Weapons for fighting the Weapons for fighting the impacts of Defense Darwinismimpacts of Defense Darwinism

Program Managers DilemmaProgram Managers Dilemma

• RedesignRedesign or or Life-of-TypeLife-of-Type Support Support

– What factors need to be considered?

– What option does the PM choose?

– At what point does the PM decide?

Time

Performance(# Sources for ICs)

ComponentSolutions

Box/SystemReplacement

Cost

Cost(Managed)“Trigger”

Point

Replacement Decision ‘Trigger’Replacement Decision ‘Trigger’

Decision FactorsDecision Factors

• Service Life

• Operational Requirements

• AVDLR or Maintenance Cost

• Hardware Availability

• Sustaining Support

• Available Options– Associated Risk– Cost of execution

Decision Factors:

--Service LifeService Life

Decision Factors:

--Service LifeService Life

• Hardware Wear out– Drift rate of components

• Handling, excessive rework, fatigue, time vs gain, offsets, etc

– Reversion of Materials• Adhesive or epoxy breakdown due to

time, temp, sunlight

Obsolescence

Functionality

Cost & Reliability

Decision Factors:

--Operational RequirementsOperational Requirements

Enough PartsEnough Parts

Good ($) PartsGood ($) Parts

Does the jobDoes the job??

• Need increased performance• Mission Change• Improperly defined Req’ts

• Need increased performance• Mission Change• Improperly defined Req’ts

• High Failure Rate– Electrical Stress– Thermal Stress– Mechanical Stress

• High Failure Rate– Electrical Stress– Thermal Stress– Mechanical Stress

Decision Factors:

Hardware AvailabilityHardware Availability

YouAre

Here

• Integrate supply & demand– Evaluate system-level spares– Excess microcircuit stock/die

• Integrate supply & demand– Evaluate system-level spares– Excess microcircuit stock/die

Decision Factors:

Hardware AvailabilityHardware Availability

• Integrate supply & demand– Evaluate system-level spares– Excess microcircuit stock/die

• Integrate supply & demand– Evaluate system-level spares– Excess microcircuit stock/die

Component Solution-------------System Replacement

Life-of-Type Buy

Aftermarket Manufacturer

Part Substitution

Full System Replacement

System Redesign/Box Replacement

Box Redesign/ Subsystem

Replacement

Emulation

Card Emulation

Available OptionsAvailable Options

Cost

Risk

HighLow

Boeing

McDonnell Douglas

Hughes Helicopter

Rockwell

General Dynamics

Lockheed

Martin Marietta

United Technologies

Grumman

Northrop

LTV

Fairchild

Kaman

Bell

1980 2001Boeing

Lockheed Martin

Northrop Grumman

Textron

(Sikorsky)

Finding the same part ...Finding the same part ...

Defense DarwinismDefense DarwinismImpactsImpacts

• Mergers, buy outs, die-offs result in:– Product Line Consolidation– Redefinition of sustained products– Division spin-offs– Changes to manufacturing techniques

Defense DarwinismDefense Darwinism

• Makes finding ‘listed part’ DIFFICULT!DIFFICULT!– Beware of Part Number Changes!– Discontinuation Notices are not final

• Industry thrives on cash• Sometimes it only takes a phone call

– Check for alternate suppliers• Requires comparison of parametrics• Usually requires testing

Get off the obsolescence Get off the obsolescence treadmill!treadmill!

Couple PartsParts Evaluation

with DesignDesign Evaluation

– Let’s incorporate reliable solutions– Appropriate use of parts with design applications

F/A-18C/D Waterfall

Incorporate Design TradeoffsIncorporate Design Tradeoffs

• Incorporation of industrial grade (-40C - 85C)

• Req’d startup of A/C cooling system prior to power on

• Incorporation of industrial grade (-40C - 85C)

• Req’d startup of A/C cooling system prior to power on

Do we really need Full Do we really need Full

MIL-TEMP range??MIL-TEMP range??

Resources:Resources:

Module/Subassembly Module/Subassembly ReplacementReplacement

• Many OTS subassemblies available that duplicate

performance -- BOLT-ON REPLACEMENT!

• Excellent candidates for power supplies/EMI filters

• AAIPT -- acceptable solution for 10% of

obsolescence solutions

Resources:Resources:

Minor board level redesign, Minor board level redesign, Mod of existing boardMod of existing board

• Alternate part part available in dif

pkg/pinout

• Alt part is functionally different, but SRA

requirements unchanged

• Board-level testing/Potential TPS changes

• Alternate part part available in dif

pkg/pinout

• Alt part is functionally different, but SRA

requirements unchanged

• Board-level testing/Potential TPS changes

Resources:Resources:

Board-Level RedesignBoard-Level Redesign

• Good OptionGood Option– Multiple obsolescence problem– Board wear-out– Functionality changes (mission)

• RiskRisk– All All interfaces properly defined

• Linear over operating temperatures

• Throughput

– Probable TPS/Software changes

Resources:Resources:

WRA-Level RedesignWRA-Level Redesign

Example -- CAINSExample -- CAINS

Resources:Resources:

System-Level ReplacementSystem-Level ReplacementMultiple WRA RedesignMultiple WRA Redesign

• Requires:Requires:

– Systems-Level analysis

– Major Logistics impact

– Proper definitions

– Completely new obsolescence analysis (esp.

COTS)

– RISK

• Requires:Requires:

– Systems-Level analysis

– Major Logistics impact

– Proper definitions

– Completely new obsolescence analysis (esp.

COTS)

– RISK

DMEA/ARINC Case HistoryDMEA/ARINC Case History

Alternate available 2/3rds of the timeAlternate available 2/3rds of the time

NAVAIR Case HistoryNAVAIR Case History

RESOLUTION NAVAIR PM'sPROBABILITY OF OCCURANCE (%)

AAIPT Involvement

PROBABILITY OF

OCCURANCE Existing Stock 3 5.7% 3 5.7%Reclamation 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Alternate 22 41.5% 23 43.4%Substitution 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Lot Buy 11 20.8% 11 20.8%Aftermarket 9 17.0% 9 17.0%Emulation 1 1.9% 3 5.7%Redesign-Minor 5 9.4% 4 7.5%

• Avoidance to date -- Avoidance to date -- $19.6 Million$19.6 Million

• Savings to date -- Savings to date -- $4.5 Million$4.5 Million

• Avoidance to date -- Avoidance to date -- $19.6 Million$19.6 Million

• Savings to date -- Savings to date -- $4.5 Million$4.5 Million

APG-65 Radar ExampleAPG-65 Radar Example

5 WRA’s

553 microcircuits

40 obs. components

4 SRA’s impacted multiple times – expensive hybrid design

– $1-11K per device

5 WRA’s

553 microcircuits

40 obs. components

4 SRA’s impacted multiple times – expensive hybrid design

– $1-11K per device

A. Emulation @ SRA level

B. DMEA Flexible Foundry

C. Procure from Raytheon “Sister

Company”

A. Emulation @ SRA level

B. DMEA Flexible Foundry

C. Procure from Raytheon “Sister

Company”

OptionsOptions

Which is most cost

effective?

APG-65 OptionsAPG-65 Options

Multiple components

on several cards

High cost components

Uncertain supplier

Decision: Mixture of

card and

component

emulation

Multiple components

on several cards

High cost components

Uncertain supplier

Decision: Mixture of

card and

component

emulation

Options A B CRRT DMEA RSL

DMEA RRT DMEARSL

Component A B C3905248 Redesign Redesign Redesign3905236 Redesign Redesign Redesign934324-2B Redesign Redesign Redesign3905240 RSL DMEA DMEA3920019 RSL DMEA DMEA934245-501B DMEA DMEA DMEA932932-1B Tech Insert Tech Insert Tech Insert925221-1B Tech Insert Tech Insert Tech Insert3904889 RRT RRT RSL3904821 RRT RRT RSL3904825 RRT RRT RSL3904841 RRT RRT RSL3904997 RRT RRT RSL932670-501B RRT RRT Redesign

ConclusionsConclusions

ConclusionsConclusions

1. Weapon service life uncertain

ConclusionsConclusions

1. Weapon service life uncertain

2. Evaluate options based on:a. Existing FY cost

b. 7-year window

c. Weapon LCC

ConclusionsConclusions

1. Weapon service life uncertain

2. Evaluate options based on:

a. Existing FY cost b. 7-year window c. Weapon LCC

3. Integrated weapon system

evaluations - can’t chase chips

ConclusionsConclusions

1. Weapon service life uncertain

2. Evaluate options based on:

a. Existing FY cost b. 7-year window c. Weapon LCC

3. Int. wpn sys. evaluations - can’t chase chips

4. Current toolsets inadequate to assist

PM’s with decision process