HaTinh Climate change

7/31/2019 HaTinh Climate change

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Ha Tinh Assessment Report on

Climate Change

Institute of Strategy and Policy on NaturalResources and Environment

Ha Noi, 2009


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Ha Tinh Assessment Report on Climate Change has bn publishd by h Insiu o Sragy and Policy onNaural sourcs and Environmn, Vi Nam, wih chnical and nancial suppor rom h Unid NaionsEnvironmn Programm (UNEP).

Copyrigh 2009, Insiu o Sragy and Policy on Naural sourcs and Environmn, Vi Nam(ISPONE).

ISBN: 0893507779131

Disclaimers

conn and rviws xprssd in his publicaion do no ncssarily rc h viws o h conribuoryxprs, organizaions or Insiu o Sragy and Policy on Naural sourcs and Environmn, or UnidNaions Environmn Programm.

is publicaion may b rproducd in whol or in par in any orm or ducaional or nonpro srvicswihou spcial prmission rom h copyrigh holdr, providd acknowldgmn o h sourc is mad. Insiu o Sragy and Policy on Naural sourcs and Environmn, Vi Nam, and h Unid NaionsEnvironmn Programm would apprcia rciving a copy o any publicaion ha uss his publicaion as asourc.

Non us o his publicaion may b mad or rsal or any ohr commrcial purpos whasovr wihou priorprmission in wriing rom h Insiu o Sragy and Policy on Naural sourcs and Environmn, ViNam, and h Unid Naions Environmn Programm.

Graphic, Layou and Prining: Kim Do Publishing Hous, Vi Nam

Van hoa ong in Publishing HousPublishing prmission numbr: 2702009/CXB/21/0614/VHT.

T

I NGUYNV MI TR

NG


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Insiu o Sragy and Policy on Naural sourcs and Environmn would lik o xprss ourgraiud o h Unid Naions Environmn Programm or boh chnical and nancial assisanc inprparing his rpor.

Our sincr apprciaion is xndd o all h concrnd insiuions who providd daa, and scinicand chnical inormaion, including supporing documns usd or h analysis and assssmn.W would lik o xprss our sincr hanks o h organizaions and xprs who conribud o h

complion o his rpor.Spcial hanks ar also xndd o:

ISPONES Team:

Dr. Nguyn Van ai

Ms. Kim i uy Ngoc

Mr. Phan uan Hung

Ms. L i L Quyn

Ms. Nguyn i Ngoc Anh

UNEPS Team:

Ms. Anna Sabrawa

Mr. Jinhua Zhang

Ms. unni Srisakulchairak

Ms. Nguyn i o

Pro. Dr. Murari Lal

National expert Team:

Pro. Dr. Nguyn rong HiuMs. Pham i anh Huong

Ms. Nguyn i Lan

Acknowledgement


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Clima chang is acing h livs o humans across h glob, including in Vi Nam. oghr wih mpraursincras and h sa lvl riss in h las dcads, Vi Nam is likly o b on o h counris mos advrslyacd by clima chang.

Locaing in a coasal ara o Cnral Vi Nam, Ha inh provinc xprincs svr climaic condiions, includingxrm wahr vns, such as sorms, ho dry wsrly winds, drough, havy rain, and oods. Clima chang islikly o impac sriously on agriculur, shris, orsry, biodivrsiy, war rsourcs, and ohr ky conomicscors in Ha inh.

Insiu o Sragy and Policy on Naural sourcs and Environmn (ISPONE), undr h Minisryo Naural sourcs and Environmn (MONE), has, in collaboraion wih naional and inrnaional

xprs, bn primarily rsponsibl or prparing h Ha inh Assssmn por on Clima Chang, wihinh chnical assisanc ramwork o h Unid Naions Environmn Programm (UNEP). is is h rporypically dvlopd undr h guidanc o h UNEP, wih a viw o providing an ovrviw o clima chang,analyzing clima chang scnarios, assssing ponial impacs o clima chang on all scors, and ouliningsragis and masurs or daling wih clima chang in Ha inh provinc. main conns o h rporinclud: (i) Naural and socioconomic aurs o Ha inh; (ii) Naural disasrs and impacs on Ha inh; (iii)Ovrviw o clima chang in Ha inh; and, (iv) Clima chang impacs, miigaion and adapaion policisand masurs or clima chang in Ha inh. purpos o h rpor is o provid som basic inormaion andknowldg o clima chang o policymakrs, nvironmnal rsarchrs and managrs, and ohr prossionalsworking in clima chang rlad lds.

ISPONE wishs o xprss is sincr hanks o UNEP or is nancial and chnical suppor, and o naionaland inrnaional xprs and rlvan agncis and organizaions or hir conribuions o h dvlopmn andrnmn o h rpor.

Dr. Nguyn Van ai

Dircor GnralInsiu o Sragy and Policy on Naural sourcs and Environmn

Novmbr 2009

Foreword

ISPONEs Director General


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Unid Naions Environmn Programm (UNEP) is mandad o rgularly assss major nvironmnaldvlopmns and rnds. is manda is implmnd hrough h Global Environmn Oulook (GEO) procss,which involvs global, rgional, subrgional, naional and ciylvl assssmns. GEO procss is paricipaoryand consulaiv, wih capaciybuilding a is cor. is rsuls in scinically auhoriaiv inormaion ornvironmnal managmn and policy dvlopmn ailord o a wid arg audinc. Ha inh Assssmnpor on Clima Chang is on o h oupus o his capaciybuilding programm, conducd by h Insiuo Sragy and Policy on Naural sourcs and Environmn (ISPONE), and Ha inh Provincial Auhoriy. purpos o h rpor is o assss clima chang impacs, o inorm dcision makrs so ha hy undrsandh nd or urgn acion, and o mobiliz public awarnss and paricipaion.

por highlighs h rnd in obsrvd clima during h pas 100 yars in Ha inh Provinc, oulinsuur scnarios, and also includs h ponial impacs o projcd rgional and local clima chang on war

rsourcs, aquaic producs, orsry, biodivrsiy, agriculur and ohr ky conomic scors. I also rviwsh vulnrabiliy o cosysms ha ar likly o b a risk rom clima chang. Ha inh is on o h NorhCnral coasal provincs o Vi Nam, occupying abou 1.8% o h oal ara o h counry. Agroorsry is animporan socioconomic aciviy, wih oal producion in 2006 valud a 6,424 billion VND (US$359 million),and an avrag annual GDP growh ra o 15.63% in h priod 20012006. Mos coasal provincs in Vi Namar acd by ropical low prssur, cyclons and sorms. Ovr h pas 50 yars, 47 sorms hav acd Ha inh,xnding rom Quynh Luu (Ngh An) o L uy (Quang Binh), o which 18 sorms hi h provinc dircly.Pak sorm rquncy has bn rpord in Augus and Spmbr (54%), ollowd by in July and Ocobr (30%).Bwn 2000 and 2008, h oal conomic loss surd by h Provinc du o inrasrucur damag romropical cyclons has bn simad a up o 2,697 billion VND (US$150 million).

Basd on h scnarios dvlopd, undr h A1FI mission scnario, h ris o surac air mpraur in Ha inhProvinc during h 2050s and h 2090s is projcd o b in h rang o 1.41.80C and 3.54.20C rspcivly.oal rainall during h rainy sason in Ha inh Provinc is projcd o incras by 58% by h 2050, and 1319% by h yar 2100, whras oal rainall during h dry sason is projcd o dcras by 15% by h yar2050 and 312% by h yar 2100. Sa lvl ris along h Provincs coaslin is projcd o b abou 30 cm by hyar 2050 and 65 cm by h yar 2100. is ranslas ino a ris in sa lvl o 67cm vry dcad, or 0.60.7cmvry yar. Finally, paricular rcommndaions ar mad rgarding coasal rac, which nds o monior andak ino accoun h projcd sa lvl ris. Mounain inrasrucur, spcially h NorhSouh railway, will ba risk rom incrasd ooding, ash oods and associad landslids in h mounain aras in h Souh Ws. Allminral xracion and indusrial producion in h coasal plain would sur rom an incras in sorm rquncy,ooding and h ris in sa lvl. vulnrabiliy o all socioconomic aciviis o clima chang, spcially hcoasal rgions is likly o incras in h uur.

UNEPs Mdiumrm Sragy (20102013) dircs h organizaion o srnghn h abiliy o counris o

ingra clima chang rsponss ino hir naional dvlopmn procsss, suppord by scinic inormaion,ingrad clima impac assssmn and local clima daa. I bliv his rpor rsponds o his manda andprovids imporan inormaion and policy opions or h govrnmn o Ha inh Provinc, Vi Nam, hroughMONE, o hlp susain h qualiy o li and livlihoods o h provincs rsidns.

Dr. Young - Woo Park

Regional Director and Representative

United Nations Environment ProgrammeRegional Ofce or the Asia and the Pacic

November 2009

Foreword

UNEPS epresentative or the Asia and the Pacic


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CC Clima Chang

CMHE Cnr or Morolory, Hydrology and Environmn

GEF SGP Global Environmn Faciliy s Small Grans Programm

GHG Grn Hous Gass

GEO Global Environmn Oulook

IPCC Inrnaional Pannl on Clima Chang

ISPONE Insiu o Sragy and Policy on Naural sourcs and Environmn

IMHE Insiu o Morolory, Hydrology and Environmn

MAD Minisry o Agriculur and ural Dvlopmn

MONE Minisry o Naural sourcs and Environmn

UNDP Unid Naions Dvlopmn ProgrammUNEP Unid Naions Environmn Programm

UNEP/OAP Unid Naions Environmn Programm gional Oc or Asia and h Pacic

Acronyms


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ACONYMS ..............................................................................................................................................................................................vi

ABLE OF CONENS ...................................................................................................................................................................... viiLIS OF ABLES .................................................................................................................................................................................. viii

LIS OF FIGUES................................................................................................................................................................................ viii

CHAPE 1: NAURL AND SOCIOECONOMIC FEAUES OF HA INH POVINCE ......................................1

1.1 Naural aurs .....................................................................................................................................................................................1

1.2 Socioconomic aurs .....................................................................................................................................................................4

1.3 Conclusions ...........................................................................................................................................................................................4

CHAPE 2: NAURL DISASES AND IMPACS O HA INH ...................................................................................7

2.1 Sorms .....................................................................................................................................................................................................7

2.2 Dry and ho wsrly winds ................................................................................................................................................................82.3 Droughs ................................................................................................................................................................................................9

2.4 Havy rains Floods..........................................................................................................................................................................10

2.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................................................12

CHAPE 3: OVEVIEW OF CLIMAE CHANGE IN HA INH ....................................................................................... 15

3.1 Clima chang vidncs in Ha inh ........................................................................................................................................... 15

3.2 rnd o climaic paramrs ...........................................................................................................................................................16

3.3 Clima chang scnarios o Ha inh ............................................................................................................................................ 21

3.4 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 24

CHAPE 4: IMPACS OF CLIMAE CHANGE IN HA INH ...........................................................................................414.1 Ovrviw o clima chang impacs in Ha inh ........................................................................................................................41

4.2 Clima chang impacs on war rsourcs ................................................................................................................................ 42

4.3 Clima chang impacs on agriculur ......................................................................................................................................... 42

4.4 Clima chang impacs on shry ................................................................................................................................................43

4.5 Clima chang impacs on orsry ............................................................................................................................................. 43

4.6 Clima chang impacs on biodivrsiy ......................................................................................................................................44

4.7 Clima chang impacs on ohr conomic scors ................................................................................................................ 44

4.8 Vulnrabiliy o clima chang ..................................................................................................................................................... 45

4.9 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 45CHAPE 5: MIIGAION AND ADAPAION POLICIES AND MEASUES ON CLIMAE CHANGE IN

HA INH .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 47

5.1 Inroducion o rms ....................................................................................................................................................................... 47

5.2 Clima chang miigaion policis and masurs ...................................................................................................................... 48

5.3 Clima chang adapaion policis and masurs ..................................................................................................................... 49

5.4 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................................................51

CONCLUSIONS AND ECOMMENDAIONS ......................................................................................................................... 55

1. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 55

2. commndaions .............................................................................................................................................................................. 56EFEENCES ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 57

Table o Contents


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LIST OF TABLES

abl 2.1. Frquncy o sorm hiting or dircly acing h coasal lin o Ngh An Ha inh Quang Binh .......... ...........7

abl 2.2. avrag numbr o monhly and annual man occurrancs o dry ho wsrly winds ......................................8

abl 2.3. numbr o dry ho days in Ha inh and som ohr placs naionwid ...............................................................8abl 2.4. Monhly and annual drough indx ......................................................................................................................................9

abl 2.5. Monhly drough rquncy (%)........................................................................................................................................ 10

abl 2.6. highs daily rainall corrsponding wih h cycls (mm) ................................................................................... 10

abl 2.7. Frquncy o havy rain o dirn lvls in 1958 2007 priod .............................................................................11

abl 2.8. Lis o sorms hi ino h ara o Ngh An Ha inh Quang Binh in 1956 2005 priod ............................. 13

abl 2.9. Avrag valus o som climaic paramrs in Ha inh (19612005) ......................................................................14

abl 3.1. Sandard dviaion (S) and rlaiv changing ra (Sr %) o som main climaic lmns ................................. 17

abl 3.2. Cocin U o h climaic lmns and analysis rsuls ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ......... 18

abl 3.3. Avrag valu and highs valu o climaic paramrs vry vyar priod a hr slcd locaions ........ 19abl 3.4. rnd spd o som climaic paramrs ........................................................................................................................20

abl 3.5. Projcd mpraur ris in ach dcad o h 21s cnury as compard o 1990s (0C) ..................................22

abl 3.6. Projcd chang in rainall in ach o h dcads o h 21s cnury as compard o 1990s (%) ..................... 23

abl 3.7. Projcd sa lvl ris in h dcads o h 21s cnury as compard o 1990s (mm) ......................................... 23

LIST OF FIGURES

Figur 1.1. Disribuion o annual mpraur Ha inh provinc ................................................................................................2

Figur 1.2. Disribuion o avrag annual sunshin hours Ha inh provinc ............................................................................2Figur 1.3. Disribuion o annual rainall Ha inh provinc ..........................................................................................................2

Figur 1.4. Disribuion o annual vaporaion Ha inh provinc .................................................................................................3

Figur 1.5. opography sraicaion map o Ha inh provinc .......................................................................................................3

Figur 2.1. sidns ar vacuad h dahrap ........................................................................................................................... 11

Figur 2.2. Sorm No 9 in h Cnral .................................................................................................................................................. 11

Figur 2.3. oad o sorm No 7 namly DAMEY in 2005 ............................................................................................................ 11

Figur 2.4. Phoograph o sorm No 7 in 2005 is akn rom salli .......................................................................................... 12

Figur 2.5. Huong Son own afr ash ood in Spmbr 2002 ................................................................................................. 12

Figur 3.1. Projcd changd in mparaur and rainall in high scnarior o h 21s cnury as compard o 1990 ...... 22

Figur 3.2. Projcd sa lvl ris in h dcads o h 21s cnury as compard o 1990s ...................................................23


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Chapter 1Natural and socio-economic eatures o Ha Tinh province

up o 2325kcal/cm2/monh. Du o h inunc o hral oal radiaion cloud is abou 140160kcal/cm2/yar,radiaion balanc is around 8090 kcal/cm2/yar.

Amosphric circulaion in Ha inh is a componn o hmonsoon circulaion in Vi Nam, which no only has closrlaion wih Souh Asia monsoon, spcially in summr,bu also is acd by Eas Asia monsoon, spcially in

winr. In winr, ach monh has 2 o 4 occasions whnh cold air movs o, h mpraur dcrass 240C onavrag ach im; hr is mor rain in h rs hal o hsason and drizzling rain in h scond hal o h sason.In summr, hr ar abou 15 o 22 occasions whn dryho wahr is dominan gnrally a h bginning andmiddl o h sason, abou on sorm and synopicallyaciv inrropical convrgnc zon occur a h ndo h sason, lasing o h arly winr causing havyconinuous or inrmitn rains.

Avrag wind spd is abou 1.5 o 2.5m/s; h srongs

wind rcordd in a sorm is up o ovr 40m/s, and mayvn approach 48m/s in som placs.

Evry yar, hr ar 1,3501,700 sunshin hours onavrag. Sunny sason lass rom April o Spmbr, andarly Ocobr. In svral monhs o h sason, hr ardry, ho wsrly winds wih ovr 200 sunshin hours achmonh.

Avrag annual mpraur in h low mounainous plainara is abou 23.5 24.50C which dcrass o 14150C onhigh paks lik ao Co. highs mpraur is ovr

400C, and in som placs i incrass o 42.60C in April, Mayor Jun. lows mpraur is around 7 0C, in somplacs i dcrass o 0.70C normally in Dcmbr andJanuary. Cold sason only lass or 3 monhs: Dcmbr,January, and Fbruary and ho sason lass or 6 monhsrom April o Spmbr.

Avrag annual rainall is abou 2,3003,000mm whil hhighs rainall is rpord up o 3,8004,400mm. ainysason lass rom AprilMay o NovmbrDcmbr. Iusually sars arly; howvr, i is inrrupd in bwn

a svral ims in Jun and July du o dry, ho wsrlywinds.

Avrag annual vaporaion amoun is wihin h rang o

1.1 Natural eatures

Ha inh is on o six provincs siuad in Norh Cnralcoasal provincs wih h oal ara o 6,026km2, occupyingabou 1.8% o h oal ara o h naion, wihin hgographic coordinas o 17054 18038 laiud Norh,105011 106036 longiud Eas. Ha inh bordrs Ngh

An o h Norh, Quang Binh o h Souh, Lao PoplsDmocraic public o h Ws and h Eas Sa o hEas, wih mor han 137km o sashor.

Locad in h Eas o ruong Son Bac rang, opography oHa inh slops rom h Ws o h Eas wih h avragslop o 1.2%, orming hr adjacn naural gographiczons: high mounainous zon; hil ly, mouainous zon andcoasal plains.

Ws mounainous zon has rahr high paks, hhighs on is ao Co wih h high o 2,235m. Hilly andmounainous zon whr Ngan Sau and Ngan Pho ivrow hrough is abou 200300 m in high. Coasal plainsalong Highway 1A is sparad by som mounains clos osas, suaris, guls, and bays.

r ar wo main soil cagoris in Ha inh:

Coasal plain soil includs sand duns, sand banks(38,222ha), salin soil (5,140ha), salin and acidicsula soil (17,265ha), alluvial soil (103,201ha), soilnar hills and mounains (12,963ha).Mounainous soil includs yllow brown rali soil onh old alluvial mound (6,135ha), yllow gry rali

land growing on clayson (148,642ha), yllow gryrali land growing on sandson (27,716ha), yllowgry rali soil dvlopd on grani rock, rioli soil(29,720ha), rali soil on high mounain (155,261ha)and grain barnss rosiv rali soi l (34,724ha).

Apar rom h wo soil cagoris, hr ar also 23,376hao rivrs and srams, ponds and laks, rocky mounainswihou vgaion covr.

Ha inh has monsoon ropical clima o a coasal provincwhich oally lis in h inrnal ropic.

In Ha inh, rgardlss o high or low zons, hr is highsolar aliud, uniorm illuminaing im, h idal oalradiaion amoun is up o 230240 kcal/cm2/yar. I is vn


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H A T I N H A S S E S S M E N T R E P O R T O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E2

Fgure 1.1. Dstrbuton o average annual sunshne hours - Ha Tnh provnce

Source: Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment

Fgure 1.2. Dstrbuton o annual temperature - Ha Tnh provnce


Fgure 1.3. Dstrbuton o annual ranall - Ha Tnh provnce



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3CHAPE 1: NAUAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FEAUES OF HA INH POVINCE

Fgure 1.4. Dstrbuton o annual evaporaton - Ha Tnh provnce


Fgure 1.5. Topography stratcaton map o Ha Tnh provnce

NOTES

National border

Provincial borderDistrict borderNational roadRailway

TOPOGRAPHY STRATIFICATION

Less than 100m100 200m200 300m300 500m500 700m700 1000m1000 1500m1500 1700m1700 2000mMore than 2000m

Scale 1: 700.000



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8001,100mm. I dos no xcd 100mm in mos o hmonhs, xcp or h highr sunshin monhs in midsummr during May, Jun, July, Augus.

Annual humidiy indx is common rom 2.2 o 3.3. Monhly

humidiy indx is mosly ovr 1. I dos vn rachs upo 1015 in som monhs, xcp or h monhs whnwsrly winds ar aciv.

Main disasrs in Ha inh ar sorms, dry ho wsrlywinds, droughs, havy rains and oods.

Ha inh has 13 small and major rivrs wih h oal lngho mor han 400km. rivrs in Ha inh origina romruong Son and ow o h sa.

Ha inh our major rivr basins ar La rivr, Cua So rivr,Cua Nhuong rivr and Cua Khau rivr. La rivr is mad up

o Ngan Sau rivr and Ngan Pho rivr wih h basin arao 3,221km2. Cua So rivr is mad up o Nghn rivr andao Cai rivr wih h basin ara o 1,349km2. Cua Nhuongrivr is mad up o Gia Hoi rivr and ac rivr wih hbasin ara o 356km2. Cua Khau rivr is mad up o ri rivr,Knh rivr, Quyn rivr wih h basin ara o 510km2.

Apar rom h major rivrs, hr ar som larg laks suchas K Go, ac, Cua o rai iu lak.

provinc has ovr 300,000ha o ors land, in whichdns ors ara accouns or 66%, including naural

orss (164,978ha), producion orss (100,000ha) andprociv orss (63,000ha) wih h covrag o 39.7%.Ha inh also rains som primval orss wih abundanand divrsid auna and ora such as Vu Quang naurrsrv, prociv ors zon o K Go lak.

1.2 Socio-economic eatures

1.2.1 Current socio-economic features

Ha inh has 4 mounainous disrics namly Huong Son,

Duc o, Vu Quang, and Huong Kh and 6 coasal disricsnamly Nghi Xuan, Can Loc, Loc Ha, ach Ha, CamXuyn, Ky Anh, Hong Linh own and Ha inh ciy.

In 2006, h populaion sood a 1,280,549 popl wihmor han 5 minoriis, mainly h Kinh. Populaion inrural ara accouns or 89% o h oal which is highr han74% naionwid. populaion dnsiy is 213 popl/km2 which is highr han h avrag dnsiy o h NorhCnral bu lowr han ha o h naion as a whol.

populaion is primarily concnrad in h Easrn

coasal plain. popl in h labor ag ar around702,000. oal numbr o workrs in h conomicscors is 642,700 popl mos o which ar in agroorsryscor (73.8%). Labor orc wih prossional skill is low;

h ra o unraind workrs is up o 92.7% which is highrhan h h naional ra o 75%.

racion o culivad land, orsry land, spcial usland and housing land accouns or 43.60%, 56.40%, 7.55%,

and 1.14%, rspcivly. unusd land is up o 63,415ha,accouning or 10.52% o naural land. Land us cocinis sill low, paricularly in h mounainous disrics.

Agroorsry producion plays an imporan rol in hsocioconomic aciviis. oal valu o producion in2006 is 6,424 billions VND, avrag GDP growh ra inh priod 20012006 is 15.63%.

In agriculural producion, culivaion accouns or ovr60% o produc valu. main plans is ood crops(ric, corn c.), shorduraion indusrial crops (ban,panu, longduraion indusrial crops (a, rubbr, c.)and rui plans wih a variy o valuabl spcialis suchas Phuc rach pomlos, Bu orangs, sour orangs, swangrins, c. Main husbandry animals ar catl, poulryand spcially dr.

As a rsul o growh in commrcial orsy in rcnyars, Ha inh has rpord mor han 80,000ha oaricial orss, including ucalypi, acacias, casuarinas,rhamnonurons and ohr spcis in h yar 2006.

1.2.2 Socio-economic development orientation

By h yar 2020, h main crops grown ar sill likly ob ric, corn, panu, ban, rubbr, a, rui plans (Phucrach pomlos, b orangs, sour orangs), and orsryplans (acacias, ucalypi, rhamnonurons, casuarinas).Catl, poulry, spcially dr will coninu o b h majorhusbandry animals. r ar likly o b abou 45,000hao winrspring ric, and 40,000ha o summrauumnand winr ric. Primary agriculural producs in 2020 arargd a abou 500,000 ons o grain ood; 80,000 onso panu, ban; 11,000 ons o dry rubbr lax; 700,000

ons o marial wood; and 100,000 ons o catl, poulryc.

arg in 2020 is s o b around 6,112 billions VND oagriculural producion, wih 63 millions USD o xpor.

1.3 Conclusions

Ha inh lis in h rgion o monsoon ropical clima1.wih cold winr; h rs hal o winr has mos o hsasonal rain whil h scond hal has only litl rain;and ho summr during which dry ho wsrly winds

ar aciv. Sorms and h inr ropical convrgnczon ar aciv a h nd o h sason. r ar havyand coninuous rains, spcially during h ransiion


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5CHAPE 1: NAUAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FEAUES OF HA INH POVINCE

priod o h arly cold air rom ho sason o coldsason wih h pnraion owards h Souh.Ha inh has abundan surac war sourcs wih our2.small rivr basins rom h Norh o h Souh; hsrivrs includ La rivr, Cua So rivr, Cua Nhuong

rivr and Cau Khau rivr rspcivly.

Socioconomic aciviis o Ha inh provinc a3.prsn and in h nar uur ar mainly agroorsryand shris which is highly dpndn on hclimaic condiions. ror, Ha inh as wll as hCnral provincs ar vry likly o b vulnrabl o

impacs o clima chang.


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Chapter 2Natural disasters and impacts to Ha Tinh

2.1 Storms

Ha inh as wll as ohr coasal provincs in Vi Namar acd by h ropical cyclons and ropical lowprssur (gnrally calld sorms) which hav hir originin h Pacic Norhws and/or in Eas Sa. No allropical cyclons orming in Pacic Norhws and EasSa ac Ha inh; nvrhlss, h lngh o h sorm

sason and sorm rquncy which ac Ha inh dpndon h cyclonic aciviy in hs wo locaions o srongcyclognsis.

main rack o Pacic Norhws sorms is Souhas Norhws or Souhas Eas Norhws Ws dircionhroughou h ara wihin h gographic coordinas o130 190 laiud Norh and 1130 1320 longiud Eas.

Pacic Norhws sorm rquncy gradually incrass romJanuary, Fbruary o Augus, hn gradually dcrass unilwih h lows rquncy in Dcmbr. Pacic Norhws

sorm sason is considrd o b h monhs wih morhan wo sorms on avrag, lasing rom Jun o Novmbrand ocusing in July, Augus, Spmbr and Ocobr.

Eas Sa sorms origina in gnral rom Pacic Norhwsand ocus in h ara wihin h gographic coordinas o100 130 laiud Norh and 1120 1180 longiud Eas;hs ar known o rarly occur in arly monhs (January,Fbruary, March, April), gradually incrasing in rquncyrom May, Jun, paking in during July, Augus, Spmbrand Ocobr, and hn gradually dcrasing in Novmbrand Dcmbr.

Ovr h pas 50 yars, Ha inh has bn rqund by 47sorms hiting or gting clos o h coasal zon xndingrom Quynh Luu (Ngh An) o L uy (Quang Binh), owhich 18 sorms dircly hi ino Ha inh provinc.

On avrag, Ha inh has bn acd by 0.90 sorm achyar, vn 2 3 sorms in svral yars, and rqund by as

many as 4 sorms during 1984. Howvr, hr hav bnmor han a hal o h yars wihou sorms (1959,1963,1966, 1967, 1968, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1982,1983,1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995,1997, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004); a ims 3 succssivyars wr wihou sorms (1966 1968; 1982 1984,1993 1995, 1997 1999, 2002 2004), and onc vnour coninuous yars passd by wihou a singl sorm

(1988 1991).s ropical cyclons in h rgion hav only appardduring h priod rom Jun o Ocobr, h sorm sasono Pacic Norhws. Pak sorm rquncy has bnrpord in Augus and Spmbr (54%), ollowd by inJuly and Ocobr (30%).

Noicably, in rcn wo hal dcads (1996 2000, 20012005), hr wr only 4 sorms which mans 0.4 sormach yar on avrag, much lowr han h avrag valu olong rm rnd. As is common in mos ohr rgions also,

primary cs o sorm ar causing widsprad damagdu o srong winds, havy rain and coasal inundaion duo high wavs. commonly rpord srngh o hwind in h sorms is in h rang o 1630m/s. A rcordo srongs wind o up o 40m/s was obsrvd during hsorm which dircly hi ino Ky Anh in 1964.

Excpionally havy rains hav occurrd no only duringh ouch down o h sorm, bu also during 12 daysbor or afr h sorm ravrss h ara. In Ha inh, hoal rainall associad wih a sorm is in h rang o 150250mm on avrag. rainall associad wih h sormis spcially havy and is usually accompanid wih coldair rom h Norh.

srong winds associad wih ropical cyclons lad ocollaps o houss and ohr inrasrucurs, caus diluviarain (smingly ndlss rain) wihin basins o rivrs, andalso caus coasal landslids killing a larg numbr o in

Table 2.1. Frequency o storm httng or drectly aectng the coastal lne o Nghe An Ha Tnh Quang Bnh

Months Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual

Frequency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.13 0.19 0.30 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.85



17/67


habians living along h sa coas. From 2000 o 2008,h oal conomic loss surd by h provinc du oinrasrucur damag rom ropical cyclons is up o2,697 billions VND, a larg shar o which was incurrdparicularly h yars: 2000 (200 billions VND), 2002

(824 billions VND), 2005 (140 billions VND), 2006 (110billions VND), 2007 (1,135 billions VND), and 2008 (250billions VND).

2.2 Dry and hot westerly winds

On o h spcial summr wahr yps o Cnral coasalprovincs in gnral and Ha inh in paricular is h dry,ho wsrly wind, which was hisorically rrrd o ascalld Lao wind. Dry ho days ar idnid according ovarious sandards in ordr o rc vry high mpraur

sa and rlaivly low humidiy a h sam im. numbr o dry ho days in his rpor is rcordd accordingo h ollowing sandards:

1) mpraur a 13 hours (13

) ovr 340C

2) laiv humidiy a 13 hours (r13

) lowr han 65%

Each yar, abou 1522 dry ho wavs ar rpord in Hainh, som ha wavs lasing only 12 days whil ohrs

hav hir duraion as long as 1214 days (Ha inh, 112/Augus/61 ; Huong Kh 114/ Augus/61); normally hha wav duraion is o 25 days on avrag.

I is vidn rom h abov ha, Ha inh normally has 3040 dry ho days vry yar whil rcords suggs lss han30 days in Huong Son, ach Ha , Ha inh ciy, and ovr40 days in Huong Son and Vu Quang. aciviy o dryho wsrly winds in Ha inh is obsrvd o b mor hanha in anh Hoa and Norh provincs, bu approximalysimilar o ha in Ngh An, Quang Binh and marginallylowr han Quang ri and ua in Hu provincs.

Dry ho wsrly winds occur rom Fbruary or March andlas ill Augus or Spmbr (abl 2.2). Howvr, dry ho

Table 2.2. The average number o monthly and annual mean occurrances o dry hot westerly wnds

Month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Annual

Ha Tinh 0.02 0.06 0.51 1.09 2.91 3.61 3.83 3.17 0.89 0.04 0.00 16.1

Huong Khe 0.02 0.15 1.04 2.34 3.81 3.94 4.09 3.45 1.28 0.17 0.04 20.3


Table 2.3. The number o dry hot days n Ha Tnh and some other places natonwde

Regon Staton Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Average

North WestLai Chau 0.1 3.0 7. 7.3 3.0 2.4 3.3 1.3 2.82

Yen Chau 0.7 5.2 8.9 10.5 5.2 4.4 2.0 0.3 37.2

Lang Son 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 5.0

North EastThai Nguyen 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.7 4.0 4.8 2.8 0.5 15.0

Ha Noi 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8 4.6 5.4 1.8 0.1 14.9

North Delta Thanh Hoa 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.0 5.7 7.4 3.0 0.1 14.9

North Central

Tuong Duong 0.8 4.3 7.8 15.3 13.3 15.8 8.9 2.7 68.9

Vinh 0.3 1.2 7.9 9.9 13.4 6.4 0.7 0.0 39.2

Huong Son 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.0 8.4 9.6 2.2 0.6 28.8

Ha Tinh 0.0 0.8 1.8 3.8 11.0 10.2 1.8 0.4 29.8

Huong Khe 0.4 1.4 5.4 8.8 14.4 14.4 3.4 0.8 49.0

Ky Anh 0.0 1.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 9.2 2.6 0.0 30.8

Tuyen Hoa 0.5 2.3 5.8 11.2 8.4 11.6 6.0 1.6 47.4

Dong Hoi 0.0 0.3 1.2 7.3 9.9 13.4 6.4 0.7 39.2

Hue 0.1 1.4 4.3 10.7 13.1 14.9 10.9 2.6 58.0Central Highlands Da Nang 0.5 1.0 1.3 8.2 9.6 12.6 9.6 1.4 44.2



18/67

9CHAPE 2: NAUAL CALAMII ES AND IMPACS O HA INH

wsrly wind sason which is considrd h monhs wihmor han 2 dry ho days on avrag in Ha inh is normallyrom April o Augus, similar o Ngh An, and anh Hoaprovincs and arlir han Quang Binh, Quang ri, andua in Hu. pak o dry ho wsrly winds occurs

in Jun, and July, afr a bri ooding priod and prior oh main rainy sason.

Dry ho wsrly winds play a ky rol in causing droughcondiions and war shorag which sriously ac hgrowh o many plans, spcially ric. In rms o clima,dry ho wsrly winds also rsuls in causing braks inavourabl rain mchanisms in h amosphr making hconvciv aciviy and rainall during h sason inrrupor 12 monhs, vn 3 monhs in midsummr. Afr hahr ar coninuous rains in h monhs o la summr

and arly winr.

2.3 Droughts

Drough condiion in Ha inh is valuad on h basiso drough indx which is drivd rom climaic droughsvriy and drough rquncy and rcs droughprobabiliy.

2.3.1 Drought index

Monhly or annual drough indx in Ha inh is valuadas ollows:

t

t

t

R

PH

whr P

is monhly or annual vaporaiv loss o war,and

is monhly or annual rainall amoun rprsning orh incom o war.

Annual drough indx in Ha inh is normally 0.30 0.45,lowr han anh Hoa, Nghe An in h Norh and many

placs in Quang Binh, Quang ri provincs in h Souh.In Ha inh, only Huong Son mounainous ara in NorhWs is h plac whr h drough indx is o approximalvl o ha o Ngh An (abl 2.4).

mporal dvlopmn o drough indx dpnds on hannual variaion o and sasonal chang o h rainall andvaporaion amouns. Gnrally, drough indx in Januaryis blow 0.5 in main rainy sason and sill blow 1 in hscond hal o winr. Whn h dry ho wsrly wind isaciv, rainall dcrass and h vaporaion incrass.us, h placs in Ha inh hav on, wo or hr monhs

wih drough indx as mor han 1, spcially in coasalaras o Cam Xuyn, and Ky Anh in h Souhas. Droughsason which is dnd as h monhs wih drough indxo mor han 1 is rom April o July in Ha inh.

2.3.2 Drought frequency

In ordr o valua h drough probabiliy, w usmonhly drough sandard (Ha inh) wih h ollowingspcic condiions:

Hwinr (Novmbr Fbruary):

10mm

Hspring (March April) :

30mm

Hsummr (May Augus) :

50mm

Hauumn (SpmbrOcobr):

30mm

Table 2.4. Monthly and annual drought index

Weather staton Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual

Ha Noi 3.25 2.16 1.21 0.63 0.53 0.37 0.38 0.29 0.38 0.63 1.23 4.50 0.59

Thanh Hoa 2.50 1.55 0.97 0.74 0.62 0.52 0.57 0.28 0.17 0.27 0.89 2.70 0.48

Vinh 0.70 0.67 0.81 0.79 0.77 1.28 1.53 0.56 0.13 0.11 0,30 0.71 0.45

Huong Son 0.48 0.45 0.67 0.57 0.58 1.18 1.27 0.59 0.16 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.44

Ha Tinh 0.35 0.41 0.65 0.70 0.65 0.81 1.22 0.45 0.12 0.07 0.15 0.27 0.30

Huong Khe 0.87 0.72 0.80 0.70 0.55 0.79 1.14 0.43 0.13 0.10 0.24 0.61 0.39

Ky Anh 0.39 0.44 0.78 1.06 0.88 1.37 2.15 0.71 0.14 0.08 0.14 0.26 0.38

Dong Hoi 0.96 1.01 1.27 1.27 1.03 1.47 2.35 0.83 0.17 0.10 0.22 0.52 0.49

Hue 0.36 0.65 1.48 1.46 1.13 1.20 1.70 0.18 0.21 0.08 0.08 0.13 0.36

Da Nang 0.83 2.75 4.16 2.60 1.30 1.34 1.55 1.02 0.29 0.12 0.16 0.32 0.51

Source:Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment


19/67


Following hs sandards, droughs in h aras o Hainh ar mainly idnid as summr droughs (abl 2.4).Droughs can appar rom Fbruary o Augus. Prdominandrough rquncy in h Provinc is blow 5% in Fbruary;bwn 5 o 25% in March, April, May; wihin h rang o

1560% in Jun, July and blow 30% in Augus (abl 2.5).

As wll as ohr provincs in h Norh Cnral, h summrdrough in Ha inh causs a srious s back or cropculivaion. Droughs caus no only rainall dcincybu also is accompanid by saliniy pnraion dp inomainland along h main rivrs.

In pas w dcads, srious droughs ar known o havoccurrd in h yars 1982, 1983, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1993,1995 and 1998. In h rcn yars, drough ara or achcrop has incrasd up o housands o hcars; or xampl,

12,680ha in 2003, and 3,360ha in 2005.

2.4 Heavy rains - Floods

Havy rain is characrizd by h highs numric valuo daily rainall, monhly rainall, annual rainall and

rquncy o havy rain days, havy rain monhs and havyrain yars a lvls.

2.4.1 Highest rainfall

Highest daily rainall

highs daily rainall squnc o h main wahrsaions has arihmic avrag o abou 240290mm andsandard dviaion o abou 80125mm.

numric valu o h highs daily rainall squncis 657.2mm in Ha inh ciy (Ocobr 1992), 492.6mm(Ocobr 1983) in Huong Kh and 790.1m (Ocobr 1967) in Ky Anh.

According o h rliabl simas, h highs dailyrainall a h slcd wahr saions (abl 2.6) can b

idnid up o 530680mm in h cycl o 50 yars and580770mm in h cycl o 100 yars.

In rcn 50 yars, hr hav bn 15 occasions whn hdaily rainall o mor han 300mm hav bn rcordd inHa inh ciy, wih 9 occasions in Huong Kh and on 17occasions in Ky Anh.

Table 2.5. Monthly drought requency (%)

Meteorology staton Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Ha Noi 17 17 43 9 2 0 0 4 0 11 14 17

Thanh Hoa 38 15 47 22 25 16 12 7 4 0 0 28

Vinh 4 5 32 18 25 40 45 18 0 2 3 8

Kim Cuong 6 6 4 8 8 22 52 4 0 0 0 12

Ha Tinh 0 4 8 18 22 41 48 26 0 0 0 4

Huong Khe 0 0 21 18 11 14 41 15 0 0 0 4

Ky Anh 0 0 13 21 19 42 58 26 0 0 0 0

Dong Hoi 4 9 51 37 48 53 65 41 0 0 0 0

Hue 2 11 46 40 60 54 62 40 0 0 0 0


Table 2.6. The hghest daly ranall correspondng wth the cycles (mm)

Cycle (year) 20 30 50 70 100

Ha Tinh 554 599 658 697 737

Huong Khe 452 486 530 559 589

Ky Anh 562 613 677 719 763



20/67


Highest monthly rainall

highs rcordd monhly rainall is rpord o b2,047.8mm in Ha inh ciy (Ocobr 1983), 1,614.6mm(Ocobr 1983) in Huong Kh and 2,218.4mm (Ocobr

1983) in Ky Anh.In rcn 50 yars, hr hav bn 14 occasions whn hmonhly rainall o ovr 1,000mm hav bn obsrvd, on4 occasions ovr 1,500mm and onc ovr 2,000mm in Hainh ciy. Corrsponding rquncy o h occuranc ohs rainall amouns is 5; 2; 0 in Huong Kh and 17; 7;1 in Ky Anh.

Highest annual rainall

highs annual rainall is rpord o b 4,391.3mm(1989) in Ha inh, 3,784.4mm (1989) in Huong Kh and4,386.1mm (1978) in Ky Anh.

In rcn 50 yars, hr hav bn 13 vns o h monhlyrainall o ovr 3,000mm in Ha inh ciy, including onvn ovr 4,000mm. Corrsponding rquncy is 4; 0 inHuong Kh and 20; 1 in Ky Anh (abl 2.7).

2.4.2 Floods

In Ha inh, oods usually bgin in Augus and occur mosrqunly in Spmbr, Ocobr and Novmbr. Flood

ofn originas rom h ollowing orms:ropical cyclonsCold airmass incursionsAciv inrropical convrgnc zonSorm combind wih cold air or ropical cycloncombind wih aciv inrropical convrgnczonCold airmass combind wih aciv inrropicalconvrgnc zon

Floods in Ha inh ar mainly in La rivr basin wihin hconunc zon o Ngan Sau and Ngan Pho rivrs. On

Table 2.7. Frequency o heavy ran o derent levels n 1958 2007 perod

Values Ha Tnh Huong Khe Ky Anh

Over 300mm daily rainfall 15 9 17

Over 1000mmm monthly rainfall 14 5 17



Over 3000mmm annual rainfall 13 4 20

Over 4000mmm annual rainfall 1 0 1


Fgure 2.1. Resdents are evacuated the death-trap

Source: vietnam.net

Fgure 2.2. Storm No 9 n the Central

Source: vietnam.net

Fgure 2.3. Road o storm No 7 namely DAMREY n 2005

Source: Website of Nghe An province


21/67


Fgure 2.4. Photograph o storm No 7 n 2005 s taken rom satellte


Fgure 2.5. Huong Son town ater ash ood n September 2002


avrag, hr ar has wo oods ach yar which caussrious loss o h conomic aciviy and human livs in hmounainous disrics o Huong Son, Vu Quang, HuongKh and uc o. Espcially, in h yar 2002 havy rainand ash ood ha occurrd in Ha inh had a dvasaingimpac on human livs and inrasrucurs.

2.5 Conclusions

Ha inh is on o h Cnral provincs which has1.winssd a svr clima in pas dcads wih a

numbr o srious wahr rlad disasrs whichincluds ropical sorms, dry ho wsrly winds,droughs, havy rains and ash oods.Disasrs in Ha inh hav conribud o craion o2.many climaological rcords o windsorm spd, dryho wsrly wind srngh, long lasing droughs andconinuous splls o havy rainall pisods.In h orhcoming clima chang conx, disasrs3.in Ha inh ar likly o b mor srious boh inrquncy as wll as in srngh.


22/67


Table 2.8. Lst o storms ht nto the area o Nghe An Ha Tnh Quang Bnh n 1956 2005 perod

No Storm Year Month Orgn day Landallday Landall locaton Lattude Longtude

1 - 1956 8 10/8 12/8 Ky Anh 17.9 108

2 CHARLOTIE 1956 9 25/8 1/9 Ha Tinh 18.2 106

3 - 1957 7 2/7 5/4 Quynh Luu 19.2 1064 - 1958 6 27/5 6/6 North of Quynh Luu 19.2 106

5 - 1958 8 23/8 28/8 Ha Tinh 18.2 106

6 - 1958 9 6/9 7/8 Dong Hoi 17.8 106

7 IRMA 1960 9 16/9 26/9 Ha Tinh 18.2 106

8 LOLA 1960 10 8/10 17/10 Dong Hoi 17.3 107

9 CORA 1961 6 27/6 25/6 Nghe Tinh Coast 17.5 107

10 - 1961 8 19/3 21/8 Dong Hoi 17.6 107

11 - 1962 7 10/7 11/7 Dong Hoi 17.2 107

12 - 1962 9 23/9 28/9 Nghe An 18.0 107

13 TILDA 1964 9 12/9 22/9 Quang Binh 17.24 107,5

14 BILIE 1964 10 25/9 1/10 Dong Hoi 17.2 107

15 CLARA 1964 10 1/10 8/10 Ky Anh 18.1 106

16 GEORGA 1964 10 19/10 23/10 Ky Anh 18.0 107

17 NADINE 1965 8 14/8 18/8 Nghe An 18.0 106

18 ROSE 1965 9 30/8 2/9 North of Quang Binh 17.7 107

19 TESS 1969 7 6/7 11/7 Dong Hoi - -

20 DOIRS 1969 9 29/8 2/9 Dong Hoi 17.2 107

21 - 1970 8 18/8 19/8 Ha Tinh Quang Binh 17.8 106

22 MARGE 1970 11 27/10 8/11 Quang Binh Coast 16.9 109

23 KIM 1971 7 9/7 13/7 Vinh 18.5 106

24 HARRIET 1971 7 30/6 7/7 Dong Hoi 19.8 107

25 ELAINE 1971 10 1/10 9/10 Ky Anh 18.0 106

26 LORNA 1972 10 27/9 2/10 Ky Anh 17.8 107

27 ANITA 1973 7 5/7 8/7 Ha Tinh 18.2 106

28 - 1973 9 20/9 25/9 Nghe An 19.0 106

29 - 1995 8 24/8 26/8 Nghe An 19.0 102.4

30 KIT 1978 9 20/9 26/9 Ba Don - -

31 BONNIE 1978 8 9/8 12/8 ong Hoi - 106.3

32 NANCY 1978 9 15/9 22/9 ong Hoi - -

33 - 1980 9 4/927/6 5/9 Quang Binh - -

34 KELLY 1981 7 9/9 4/7 Nghe An - -

35 - 1985 9 24/9 10/9 Nghe Tinh - -

36 ANDY 1985 10 11/10 1/10 North of Quang Binh - -

37 DOT 1985 10 8/8 12/10 Vinh

38 BETTY 1987 8 16/8 16/8 South of Deo Ngang

39 CARY 1987 8 11/8 22/8 Vinh

40 FRED 1987 8 22/8 17/8 Ky Anh

41 WINONA 1993 6 7/9 29/8 18 105

42 19/9 13/9 Nghe An Thanh Hoa 19.0

43 - 1992 9 15/9 20/9 Ha Tinh 106,0

44 WILLE 1996 9 4/9 22/9 Nghe An 19.9 111

45 WUKONG 2000 9 8/8 10/9 Ha Tinh 18.4 107

46 USAGI 2001 8 15/9 10/8 Ha Tinh 18.2 108

47 VICENTE 2005 9 18/9Nghe An Ha Tinh

Quang Binh17.8 107



23/67


Table 2.9. Average values o some clmatc parameters n H Tinh (1961-2005)

Factors Weather staton Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual Total

Average sunshine

hours (hour)

Huong Son 65.4 50.8 73.5 132.9 202.1 17.3 199.8 149.1 140.1 119.0 82.9 75.1 1463.0

Ha Tinh 75.5 51.0 74.4 136.2 216.8 206.6 226.7 189.0 155.9 134.2 95.7 78.9 1624.6

Huong Khe 67.0 49.7 76.9 131.6 179.3 180.0 203.0 160.9 120.5 99.3 73.6 58.5 1371.6Ky Anh 77.7 58.5 92.9 150.1 219.7 217.8 237.8 192.3 162.2 125.9 82.4 73.2 1657.9

Average

temperature (0C)

Huong Son 16.9 17.8 20.6 24.4 27.4 28.6 28.7 27.8 25.7 23.6 20.4 17.7 23.3

Ha Tinh 17.7 18.4 20.8 24.5 27.8 29.5 29.7 28.7 26.8 24.4 21.5 18.7 24.1

Huong Khe 18.0 19.0 21.6 25.1 27.6 28.9 29.1 28.0 26.1 24.0 21.2 18.8 24.0

Ky Anh 17.9 18.7 21.0 24.7 28.0 29.7 29.9 28.9 26.9 21.7 21.7 18.8 23.5

Average rainfall

(mm)

Huong Son 6.3 57.8 67.4 126.1 199.8 163.3 144.2 261.5 537.7 445.2 226.3 88.1 2383.7

Ha Tinh 98.5 66.1 59.5 72.4 150.8 133.6 127.6 228.9 503.4 693.9 341.4 164.1 2634.4

Huong Khe 41.9 47.5 62.9 94.4 213.5 162.3 144.1 294.6 491.4 549.1 190.5 71.8 2358.5

Ky Anh 109.4 73.3 59.2 57.8 155.4 128.9 98.8 234.9 563.8 749.0 417.0 205.9 2842.1

Averageevaporation (mm)

Huong Son 32.2 27.6 41.4 71.0 133.3 178.1 218.7 150.7 68.1 46.6 34.3 34.5 1036.5

Ha Tinh 35.1 27.4 35. 6 55.0 95.5 122.3 137.7 100.8 63.9 55.5 49.8 45.2 820.7

Huong Khe 37.4 32.4 48.6 72.9 112.4 135.9 163.1 106.7 62.2 52.5 47.3 41.9 907.9

Ky Anh 41.4 32.0 44.1 65.1 122.9 178.3 208.6 152.1 78.1 64.6 60.3 53.2 1094.9

Average relatively

humidity (%)

Huong Son 90 91 90 86 79 75 71 78 87 89 90 90 85

Ha Tinh 91 92 92 88 81 77 74 80 87 89 89 88 86

Huong Khe 91 91 90 86 80 78 74 81 87 88 88 89 85

Ky Anh 90 92 91 87 79 74 70 76 82 88 88 88 84

Average wind

speed (m/s)

Huong Son 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.5

Ha Tinh 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7

Huong Khe 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6

Ky Anh 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.4 2.4 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3



24/67

Chapter 3Overview o Climate Change in Ha Tinh

Minimum o the sequence (Min X)

Minimum o h squnc x is h lows numric valu inh mporal squnc {x

}

Min X = Min (x1, x

2,x

n)

Change of average elements and total quantity

Level o change in sunshine hoursSandard dviaion o sunshin duraion in h Provinc isabou 2035 hours in January, 2540 hours in April, 4050hours in July, and 3642 hours in Ocobr. laiv ra ochang in sunshin in January, April, July and Ocobr is 3045% ; 20 45%; 1921%, 30 37%, rspcivly. ror,h chang in sunshin during summr is mor han ha oohr sasons in rms o absolu numric valu, bu i islss han ha o ohr sasons in rms o rlaiv numricvalu. numbr o annual sunshin hours has sandarddviaion o 150200 hours bu h rlaiv changing ra

is only 913% (abl 3.1). cord o h highs monhlysunshin hours is rpord o b 306.3 (Ky Anh, Jun 1977) and h lows on is rpord o b 4.5 (Huong Kh,Fbruary 1984). rcord o highs annual sunshinhours is 2,093 (Ha inh ciy, 1987) and h lows on is1,095.4 (Huong Kh, 2002).

Level o change in average temperature

Sandard dviaion o surac air mpraur is 1.40C 2.30C in January, 1.30C 1.60C in April; 0.70C 0.90C inJuly; 0.60C 1.10C in Ocobr wih h rlaiv changingra o 7 13%; 5 7%; 2 3.5% and 2.5 5.0% rspcivlyin hs monhs, which is rlaivly high in winr andrlaivly low in summr.

Annual avrag mpraur has sandard dviaion oblow 10C wih h rlaiv changing ra o no mor han4%.

highs monhly avrag mpraur is 31.80C (KyAnh, Jun 1993) and h lows on is 13.70C (HuongKh, Fburary 1968).

3.1 Climate change evidences in Ha Tinh

3.1.1 Level of change of some basic climate factors

Parameters expressing the level of change in climate

Sequence {xt}

Squnc {x} is h s o mporal numric valus o

lmn X, rom yar 1, yar 2 o yar n:

{X}: x

1, x

2, x

n1, x

n

Arithmetic average

Arihmic avrag is h simad numric valu rommany yars o h climaic lmn (convnionally 30yars).

n

t

xt

n

x

1

1

Standard deviation (S)

Sandard dviaion is h simad avrag lvl omporal chang o h climaic climaic lmn

2

1

1

2

)(1

n

t

txx

nS

In many cass, common oscillaion scal o lmn X canb considrd o b Sx

elative changing rate (Sr)

laiv changing ra is h simad rlaiv chang oclima lmn:

%100*x

SSr

Maximum o the sequence (Max)

Maximum o h squnc is h highs numric valu inh mporal squnc {x

}

Max X = Max (x1, x

2,x

n)


25/67


highs annual avrag mpraur is 25.40C (Ky Anh,1998) and h lows on is 22.80C (Huong Kh, 1971).

highs mpraur is in rcn dcad o h pascnury (19912000) and h lows on is in h dcads

1961 1970 or 1971 1980.

Level o change in rainall

Sandard dviaion o rainall is abou 2050mm in January,4065mm in April, 120140mm in July and 280500mm inOcobr wih h rlaiv changing ra wihin h rango 3560%; 6575%; 90125%; 5065% rspcivly,which is rlaivly low in January and rlaivly high inJuly. Annual rainall has sandard dviaion o 500700mmbu h rlaiv changing ra is only abou 2027%.

cord highs monhly rainall is rpord o b 2047.8mm(Ha inh ciy, Ocobr 1983) and h lows on is

rpord o b 0.1mm (Ky Anh, Jun 1966).

Level o change o evaporation amount

Sandard dviaion o vaporaion amoun is 913mmin January, 1324mm in April, 2550mm in July and 1015mm in Ocobr, wih h rlaiv changing ra wihinh rang o 25 30%; 13 25%; 25 50%; 10 15%rspcivly, which is rlaivly high in July and rlaivlylow in January. Annual vaporaion amoun has sandard

dviaion o abou 100200mm and h rlaiv changingra o 1020%.

cord o h highs monhly vaporaion amoun isrpord o b 285.0mm (Ky Anh, Augus 1967) and hlows on is rpord o b 13.2mm (Ha inh ciy, March 1980). cord o h highs annual vaporaion amounis 1608.9 (Ky Anh, 1967) and h lows on is 622.8mm

(Huong Kh, 2000).

Level of change in extreme elements

Change in the maximum temperature (Tx)

Sandard dviaion o h maximum mpraur is abou2.30C 2.50C in January; 1.80C 2.60C in April; 1.00C 1.20C in July; 1.50C 1.60C in Ocobr, wih h rlaivchanging ra in h rang o 8 10%; 4 8%; 2 4%;4 5% rspcivly, which is rlaivly high in July andrlaivly low in January. maximum annual manmpraur has sandard dviaion o 0.90C 1.00C andh rlaiv changing ra o 2 2.5%.

cord o h highs rcordd x is 42.6 0C (Huong Kh,1992) and h lows rcordd x is 36.30C (Ky Anh,

1989).

Change in the minimum temperature (Tn)

Sandard dviaion o h minimum mpraur is abou1.50C 2.60C in January; 2.10C 2.20C in April; 0.80C 1.00C in July; 1.60C 1.90C in Ocobr, wih h rlaiv

changing ra in h rang o 13 28%; 12 13%; 3 5%;8 12% rspcivly, which is rlaivly high in Januaryand rlaivly small in July. minimum annual manmpraur has sandard dviaion o 1.40C 2.40C andh rlaiv changing ra o 14 31%.

cord o h highs rcordd n

is 13.80C (Ha inh ciy,1958) and h lows rcordd

nis 2.60C (Huong Kh,

1963).

Change in the highest daily rainall (x)

Sandard dviaion o x

is abou 1016mm in January, 22

29mm in April, 6080mm in July, 80140mm in Ocobr

wih h rlaiv changing ra o 40 75%; 70 85%; 100 130%; 50 65% rspcivly, which is rlaivly high inJuly and rlaivly low in January.

highs daily rainall has sandard dviaion o abou80125mm wih h rlaiv changing ra o 3050%

cord o h highs x

is 790.1mm (Ky Anh, 1967) and101.2mm (Huong Kh, 1978).

Change in annual storm requency

Annual sorm rquncy which acs Ha inh has sandarddviaion o 1.095 (sorm) and h rlaiv changing rao 119%. highs sorm rquncy is obsrvd in 1964(4) and h lows on is 0 (svral yars)

Change in requency o sunshine days

Sandard dviaion o h numbr o rquncy o sunshindays is 3.78 in Ha inh and 3.86 in Huong Kh. rlaivchanging ra o his characrisic is 23.5% in Ha inh and19.0% in Huong Kh.

numbr o h mos sunshin days in a monh is 29(1999) in Ha inh and 28 (1999) in Huong Kh. numbr o h las sunny days a abov locaions is 10(1963) and 17 (svral yars), rspcivly.

3.2 Trend o climatic parameters

3.2.1 Methods

wo ollowing sps ar akn o dmonsra h rnds

o climaic paramrs in Ha inh:


26/67

17CHAPE 3: OVEVIEW OF CLIMAE CHANGE IN HA INH

Sp 1: Calcula h valus o h climaic paramr vryvyar priod and analys h rnd o ach haldcadsqunc o valus.

A squnc o valus o vry vyar priod is calculad

as:

kcacn aacn

ntk xtx5

1

rnd o a haldcad squnc o valus is analysd bySparman mhod as ollows:

1. Form a haldcad squnc o valus {x}

{xt}: x

1, x

2,x

n

2. Form a squnc {yi} wih incrasing valu o x

i

{yi}: y1, y2,yn

In which:

y1

< y2

< < yn

3. Dirnc bwn wo squncs

D =

n

t

yixt1

2)()( (3.2)

4. ank corlaion cocin

Dnn

r

)1(

61

2

2

(3.3)

5. Analysis cocin u

)1()1(

61

2

n

nn

u (3.4)

Table 3.1. Standard devaton (S) and relatve changng rate (Sr %) o some man clmatc elements

Factor StatonI IV VII X Year

S Sr S Sr S Sr S Sr S Sr

Number of sun hours (hour)

Ha Tinh 33.6 44.5 33.8 44.8 45.3 20.0 41.6 30.7 152.5 9.4

Huong Khe 20.6 30.7 27.8 21.1 40.0 19.7 36.2 36.5 174.3 12.7

Ky Anh 32.7 42.0 37.3 24.9 48.3 20.3 39.6 31.5 199.0 12.0

Average temperature (0C)

Ha Tinh 1.4 7.9 1.3 5.3 0.8 2.7 0.8 3.3 0.5 2.1

Huong Khe 2.3 12.8 1.6 6.4 0.9 3.1 1.1 4.6 0.9 3.8

Ky Anh 1.4 7.8 1.3 5.3 0.7 2.3 0.6 2.8 0.6 2.6

Rainfall (mm)

Ha Tinh 45.8 46.5 52.9 73.0 136.4 106.8 411.2 59.7 605.3 25.9

Huong Khe 23.1 55.1 65.3 6.92 130.3 90.4 292.2 53.2 515.8 21.9

Ky Anh 40.7 37.2 42.5 73.5 121.8 123.3 479.8 64.1 6527 23.0

Evaporation (mm)

Ha Tinh 9.1 25.9 13.0 23.6 27.5 20.0 11.7 21.1 1038 12.6

Huong Khe 9.7 25.9 23.4 32.1 47.0 28.8 12.5 23.8 1789 19.7

Ky Anh 12.2 29.5 18.0 27.6 49.6 23.8 14.7 22.8 1580 1.44

Maximum temperature (0C)

Ha Tinh 2.3 8.6 2.6 7.2 1.0 2.7 1.5 4.7 0.9 2.3

Huong Khe 2.5 8.4 1.8 4.7 1.1 2.9 1.5 4.5 1.0 2.5

Ky Anh 2.5 9.3 2.2 6.1 1.2 3.2 1.6 5.0 0.9 2.4

Minimum temperature (0C)

Ha Tinh 1.6 15.2 2.1 12.1 0.8 3.3 1.6 8.8 1.4 14.7

Huong Khe 2.6 27.4 2.1 12.4 0.9 8.9 1.9 11.0 2.4 30.8

Ky Anh 1.5 13.6 2.1 12.0 1.0 4.2 1.6 8.8 1.4 14.0

Highest daily rainfall (mm)

Ha Tinh 15.5 50.8 27.8 81.3 75.8 128.5 135.8 62.7 112.8 39.8

Huong Khe 10.9 71.2 26.3 72.5 62.5 108.5 88.0 53.8 84.6 34.0

Ky Anh 13.8 43.9 22.9 79.0 68.6 112.1 130.2 62.3 124.3 47.1

Number of storms including those on

the coastal line of Nghe An Ha Tinh

Quang Binh

1.095 119

Number of heat wavesHa Tinh 3.785 23.5

Huong Khe 3.86 19.0



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6. Analysis

Analys daa wih h ollowing cririon 3.5:

U > 1.96: squnc wih incrasing rnd

1.96 < U < 1.96: squnc wihou rnd (3.5)

U < 1.96: squnc wih dcrasing rnd

Sp 2: Esablish h rnd quaion o climaic acors

rnd quaion o climaic paramrs (x) and im ()is ormd as:

X= b

0+ b

1

In which:

n

t

n

t

t

tt

ttxx

b

1

2

1

1)(

))((

(3.6)

whr:

n

t

tx

nx

1

1

n

t

tn

t

1

1 tbxb 10

b1

is spd o rnd and b0

is h origin valu o rnd lin.

3.2.2 Results of data analysis

Basd on analysis valu U, hr ar only 2 lmns wiha rmarkabl rnd among 8 mos imporan climaiclmns, namly avrag annual mpraur and annualha wav rquncy. Bsids, h maximum mprauralso shows a disinguis habl rnd as compard o ohrlmns

3.2.3 Climatic parameters over periods of 5 years

An ovrviw o som h imporan climaic lmns ormos rcn 50 yars can b sn hrough h avrag osquncs in 5yar priods (abl 3.3).

Annual sunshine hours

numbr o sunshin hours dos no show a sysmaicdirnc bwn h prvious priods (1961 1990)and h consquiiv vyar priods (1991 2005). ucuaion o sunshin hours in vyar priods has nornd.

Average temperature

daa collcd rom 3 wahr saions o Ha inh,

Huong Kh, Ky Anh shows a markd dirnc bwnvyar priods in h pas and rcn 15 yars. mpraur rnd ovr vyar priods in 3 saions isconrmd by Sparman mhod.

Maximum temperature

maximum mpraur o ach vyar priod aHa inh and Huong Kh saions changs rmarkablyrom h hal o prvious dcad o h hal o rcndcad. Sparman analysis also comrmd h rnd in hmaximum mpraur a hs wo saions. A Ky Anh

saion only, h maximum mpraur during h priodso 1976 1980; 1981 1985 and 1986 1990 is highrhan hr prvious and hr lar vyar priods.

Table 3.2. Coefcent U o the clmatc elements and analyss results (v; n trend, 0; no trend )

Staton

Ha Tnh Huong Khe Ky Anh

U Result U Result U Result

Annual sunshine hours -2.20 v - - -0.171 0

Average annual temperature 2.45 v 2.69 v 2.31 v

Maximum temperature 2.43 v 2.029 v 0.407 0

Minimum temperature 0.424 0 1.109 0 0.897 0

Annual rainfall -1.302 0 0.637 0 -0.904 0

Highest daily rainfall 1.164 0 0.849 0 0.765 0

Annual evaporation 1.086 0 -0.801 0 -1.627 0

Number of annual heat waves 1.995 v 2.101 v - -



28/67


Minimum temperature

minimum mpraur obviously incrasd abruplyin 2001 2005. Howvr, according o Sparman analysis,h incrasing rnd in minimum mpraur has no

rachd a signican lvl.Average rainall

highs valu o rainall is obsrvd in dirn priods:1991 1995 a Ha inh saion, 1986 1990 a Huong Khsaion and 19811985 a Ky Anh saion. Manwhil, hlows valu is obsrvd in 1961 1965 a Ha inh saion,1966 1970 a Huong Kh saion and 1991 1995 a KyAnh saion. From his analysis, no discrnabl rnds arnoicd in h rainall a h slcd locaions.

Highest daily rainall

Lik annual rainall, daily rainall also shows complxprogrss: rcords o highs valu and dnsiy ar obsrvdin 1991 1995 a Ha inh saion whil similar b havior

is obsrvd in 1981 1985 a Huong Kh saion and in1966 1970 a Ky Anh saion.

Evaporation

In h rcn wo dcads, h vaporaion has incrasdconsidrably a Ha inh saion, bu i has rmaind rahrlow a Huong Kh saion as wll as a Ky Anh saion.r has bn no clar vidnc o an incrasing rndin vaporaion a hs locaions alhough h incrasingrnd in vaporaion is considrd a common obsrvaionlswhr.

Table 3.3. Average value and hghest value o clmatc parameters every ve-year perod at three selected locatons

Factor Staton1956-

1960

1961-

1965

1966-

1970

1971

-1975

1976

-1980

1981

-1985

1986

-1990

1991

-1995

1996-

2000

2001-

2005

Sunshine hours (hour)

Ha Tinh - 1674 1574 1620 1654 1674 1784 1622 1560 1482

Huong Khe - - - - - - - - - -

Ky Anh - - - 1650 1678 1822 1860 1786 1770 1460

Average temperature (0C)

Ha Tinh - 23.8 23.7 23.7 13.8 23.7 24.1 24.1 24.4 24.5

Huong Khe - 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.6 23.7 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.3

Ky Anh - 23.9 24.1 24.0 24.3 24.0 24.6 24.4 24.5 24.5

Maximum temperature (0C)

Ha Tinh - 38.1 39.5 38.5 39.7 39.3 39.9 40.2 39.9 40.0

Huong Khe - 39.5 39.3 41.1 41.2 40.5 40.3 42.6 41.0 41.0

Ky Anh - 38.3 38.8 38.6 40.4 39.3 39.5 39.4 38.3 38.8


Ha Tinh - 7.6 8.6 7.6 8.2 7.3 8.2 8.1 7.5 9.0

Huong Khe - 2.8 5.9 2.6 6.5 5.5 6.5 5.4 3.6 8.5

Ky Anh - 8.3 9.4 6.9 8.9 7.5 7.8 9.2 8.4 10.4

Annual rainfall (mm)

Ha Tinh - 2128 2438 2974 2541 2572 2938 3020 2188 2680

Huong Khe - 2552 2114 2336 2182 2462 2816 2280 2256 1862

Ky Anh - 2676 2912 2972 2736 3190 2828 2446 2866 2614

Highest daily rainfall Rx(mm)

Ha Tinh - 244.7 308.3 456.1 502.4 434.9 546.0 657.2 266.1 401.6

Huong Khe - 274.6 290.3 411.2 313.2 492.6 347.0 294.4 357.3 302.6

Ky Anh - 206.3 790.1 377.7 475.8 519.1 367.8 484.2 480.1 359.0

Evaporation (mm)

Ha Tinh 320.1 768 8.8 832 784 730 74.2 820 884 908

Huong Khe - 722 906 946 1024 1068 840 672 774 760

Ky Anh 316.6 1070 1328 1128 1086 1134 1033 1040 1072 984

Number of hot and dry daysHa Tinh 62 77 68 72 89 93 79 103 81

Huong Khe 94 99 96 96 94 116 115 103 100

Number of storms including those in

the coastal line of

Nghe An Ha Tinh Quang Binh

- 8 6 4 7 4 4 2 2 2 2

Average number of heat wavesHa Tinh - 912.4 15.4 13.6 14.4 17.8 18.6 15.8 20.6 16.2

Huong Khe - 18.8 19.8 19.2 19.2 18.8 23.2 23.0 20.6 20.0



29/67


Storm requency along the coast line o Nghe An HaTinh Quang Binh

Sorm rquncy dcrasd gradually during priods o1956 1960; 1961 1965 (8 10) and 1966 1970, 1971

1975, 1976 1980, and 1981 1985 (47 pr 5 yar) anddcrasd h mos in h rcn vyar priods (2 pr5 yar).

is is complly dirn rom h sorm disribuionrcordd in vyar priods or h nir coas lin oVi Nam akn oghr and nds o b urhr xplordin rms o any chang in prrrd landall locaion alongh coas lin.

Frequency o heat waves

avrag rquncy o ha wavs in Ha inh, ypicallyor coasal dla aras, is lowr han 15 in priods prioro 1976 1980 and highr han ha in h lar vyar

priods. Paricularly, h rquncy o ha wavs in 1996 2000 is up o 20.6.

numrical valu o his paramr a Huong Kh,ypical or mounainous aras, is lowr han 20 in h priodo 19811985 and highr han 20 in h lar priods. priod o 1986 1990 winssd h highs lvl o hawav rquncy.

Table 3.4. Trend speed o some clmatc parameters

Factor Staton Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Annual

Sunshine hours (hour/year)

Ha Tinh -0.5328 0.1864 -0.5116 -0.5512 -1.5954

Huong Khe -0.3775 0.0532 -0.6167 -0.1823 -1.3067

Ky Anh -0.4645 -0.8086 -1.3019 -0.2269 -7.0834

Average temperature (0C/year)

Ha Tinh 0.0224 0.0158 0.0212 0.0185 0.0142

Huong Khe 0.0421 0.0295 0.0182 0.0168 0.0246

Ky Anh 0.0270 0.0238 0.0112 0.0141 0.0251

Maximum temperature (0C/year)

Ha Tinh 0.0459 0.0578 0.0133 0.0141 0.0213

Huong Khe 0.0783 0.043 0.0148 0.019 0.0332

Ky Anh 0.0309 0.0542 0.0445 -0.0615 0.0065


Ha Tinh 0.0244 0.0368 0.0299 0.0134 0.012

Huong Khe 0.0549 0.0282 0.2786 0.0158 0.0613

Ky Anh 0.0617 0.0369 0.0043 -0.1019 0.0521

Rainfall (mm/year)

Ha Tinh 0.2396 0.0352 -0.8962 1.9445 7.5788

Huong Khe 0.597 0.0466 -0.6266 1.2034 -0.5155

Ky Anh 0.2195 0.0275 -1.2743 -5.211 -11.196

Highest rainfall(mm/year)

Ha Tinh -0.0157 0.2853 -0.5425 1.1926 2.0354

Huong Khe -0.1629 0.1359 -0.3602 -0.4037 0.4188

Ky Anh 0.0082 -0.2447 -0.7027 1.0691 1.3446

Evaporation (mm/year)

Ha Tinh -0.1261 0.0264 0.2958 0.1334 2.6194

Huong Khe -0.1536 0.0356 -1.3501 -0.3542 -4.0604

Ky Anh -0.4411 0.0305 -1.8423 -0.1351 -6.4177

Storm frequency (storm/year) Coastal line of Nghe An Ha Tinh Quang Binh - - - 0.001

Heat waves (wave/year)Ha Tinh - - - 0.1047

Huong Khe - - - 0.0657

Hot and sunny days Ha Tinh 0.2854

Huong Khe 0.1872



30/67


3.2.4 Trend of climatic parameters

Changing rate o climatic parameters with a cleartrend

Only wo paramrs hav bn idnid o hav adiscrnabl rnd o chang, namly avrag annualmpraur and annual ha wavs.

Changing spd o avrag annual mpraur is 0.1420C/dcad a Ha inh saion, up o 0.2460C/dcad a KyAnh saion and 0.250C/dcad a Huong Kh saion.Accordingly, wihin h pas 4550 yars h avragmpraur in Ha inh hav incrasd by 0.71.10C, whichis among h highs lvls in Vi Nam.

numbr o rquncy o annual ha wavs has alsoincrasd a a ra o 1.047 wavs/dcad quivaln o2.854 wavs/dcad in plain aras and 0.657 wavs/dcadin mounainous aras. ra o mpraur rnd in Hainh is around ha o many placs in h Cnral, highrhan ha o h Norh Dla and Mkong Dla, CnralHighlands, and lowr han ha o h Norh Ws, Norh

Eas.

Changing rate o climatic parameters with unclear

trend

In raliy, i is possibl o considr cocin b1

in h

rnd quaion o h paramrs wih an unclar rndas h cocin o chronogical incras/dcras.As shown in abl 3.4, ovr h pas fy yars, hsunshin hours in many locaions hav dcrasd byapproximaly 17 hours/yar, rainall incrasd ordcrasd by 112mm/yar, vaporaion incrasd/dcrasd by 27mm/yar. incras/dcras o hparamrs wih an unclar rnd is approximaly ha o

hos changing in rnd.

3.3 Climate change scenarios o Ha Tinh

3.3.1 General introduction

Ha inhs plausibl clima chang scnarios discussdhr consis o projcions o mpraur chang, rainallchang and sa lvl ris.

uur mpraur and rainall scnarios ar dvlopdby h sofwar MAGICC/SCENGEN in analysing hglobal modls adapd by h IPCC wih 6 missionscnarios ranking rom low o high, namly B1, A1, B2,

A1B, A2 and A1FI. mpraur and rainall aursprsnd in h scnarios ar akn or h yar and oursasons: Spring (March May), Summr (Jun Augus),

Auumn (Spmbr Novmbr), Winr (Dcmbr Fbruary). scnarios in Ha inh as wll as h NorhCnral ar applid or ara o laiud o 150 200 norhand longiud o 1050 1100 as. simad rsuls onuur projcions o mpraur and rainall in Ha inh

ar dvidd o 3 groups: Low (B1, A1), Mdium (B2,A1B) and High (A1FI, A2).

scnario o sa lvl ris in Ha inh is adapd romh global sa lvl ris scnario or h coasal aras o hCnral in Vi Nam ollowing h comparison o obsrvdra o sa lvl ris rom 1983 o 1993 o Vi Nam Cnralwih avrag global ra o sa lvl ris.

3.3.2 Temperature scenarios

mpraur scnarios o Ha inh ar basically hsam as hos o Norh Cnral rgion. s scnarios(abl 3.5) show ha h man surac air mpraurshall coninu o incras gradually rom h bginning oh nd o h dcad a rlaivly highr ra in summrhan in winr.

Undr h high mission scnarios, by h yar 2050,h surac air mpraur will ris wihin h rang o1.380C1.740C dpnding on h sason, 1.680C or h

yar as a whol. By h nd o 2100, sasonal surac airmpraurs will incras wihin h rang o 3.500C

4.190

C, whil annually avragd mpraur ris isprojcd o b 3.880C.

Undr h mdium mission scnarios, by h yar 2050,h mpraur ris will b in h rang 1.190C1.530Cdpnding on h sason, whil h annual man warmingwill b abou 1.470C. By h nd o 2100, sasonal suracair mpraur will ris by bwn 2.230C2.810C, whilh annual mpraur by 2.620C.

Undr h low mission scnarios, by h yar 2050, hsurac air mpraur ris is projcd o b idnical

o ha in h mdium mission scnarios. By h nd o2100, h sasonal mpraur will incras in h rang o1.760C2.270C and annual man mpraur by 2.100C.

3.3.3 Rainfall scenarios

rainall scnarios o Ha inh (abl 3.6) ar alsoadapd rom clima scnarios o Norh Cnral rgion.According o hs scnarios, rainall chang will no buniorm in all sasons as opposd o mpraur. ainallwill incras in summr and auumn and dcras in winr,spring. Lik mpraur, h incras or dcras in uurrainall bcoms highr rom h bginning o h mid andnd o h 21s cnury.


31/67


For h high mission scnarios, by h yar 2050 winrrainall will likly dcras by 4.8% and during springdcras will b limid o abou 1.2%, summr rainallamoun will incras by 5.6%, whil auumn rainallamoun will incras by 7.6%. By h yar 2100, h

projcd dcras in winr and spring rainall ar 11.8%;2.9% rspcivly whil h projcd rainall incrasduring summr and auumn sason ar 13.8% and 15.8%rspcivly; h annual man rainall or h yar willincras by 10.3%.

For h mdium mission scnarios, h ra o chang inrainall by h yar 2050 during winr, spring, summr,auumn and or h whol yar will b rspcivly 4.3%;1.1%; 5%; 6.8% and 3.7%. By h nd o 2100, hcorrsponding dcras/incras in rainall will by 7.9%;

2.0%; 9.3%; 12.7% and 7.0%.For h low mission scnarios, by h yar 2050, winrrainall will dcras by 4.2%, and spring rainall willdcras by only 1.1% whil summr rainall is projcd oincras by 7.5% and auumn rainall is likly o incras by7.5%. Consqunly, h annual man rainall is projcdo incras 3.6%. By h nd o his cnury, winr rainallwill likly dcras by 5.8%, and spring rainall will dcrasby 1.6%, whil summr rainall will likly incras by 6.8%and winr rainall is projcd o incras by 9.3%. annual man incras in rainall is likly o b abou 5.2%.

Fgure 3.1. Projected changed n temparature and ranall n hgh scenaro o

the 21st century as compared to 1990

Projected change in temperature in high scenario

of the 21 century as compared to 1990 (%)

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Year

Spr.

Sum(

C)

0

st

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year

(mm)

Win.

Aut.

Projected change in rainfall in high scenario of

the 21 century as compared to 1990 (%)st


Table 3.5. Projected temperature rse n each decade o the 21st century as compared to 1990s (0C)

Scenaro Average temperature 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Hgh

Dec.-Feb. 0.33 0.54 0.75 1.17 1.60 2.23 2.73 3.28 3.70 4.12

Mar.-May 0.35 0.57 0.78 1.21 1.74 2.27 2.91 3.34 3.45 4.19

Jun.-Aug. 0.25 0.35 0.63 0.91 1.38 1.85 2.32 2.70 3.08 3.64Sep.-Nov. 0.27 0.47 0.66 0.96 1.45 1.94 2.43 2.82 3.41 3.50

Annual mean 0.31 0.52 0.73 1.05 1.68 2.20 2.73 3.15 3.57 3.88

Medum

Dec.-Feb. 0.33 0.54 0.75 1.17 1.49 1.81 2.12 2.44 2.54 2.75

Mar.-May 0.35 0.57 0.78 1.21 1.53 1.85 2.17 2.49 2.70 2.81

Jun.-Aug. 0.16 0.35 0.63 0.91 1.19 1.48 1.76 1.95 2.13 2.23

Sep.-Nov. 0.17 0.37 0.66 0.96 1.25 1.55 1.84 2.03 2.23 2.43

Annual mean 0.31 0.42 0.73 1.15 1.37 1.78 2.10 2.31 2.52 2.62

Low

Dec.-Feb. 0.33 0.65 0.96 1.17 1.49 1.60 1.81 1.91 2.02 2.12

Mar.-May 0.36 0.64 0.99 1.21 1.53 1.63 1.85 1.95 2.06 2.27

Jun.-Aug. 0.25 0.53 0.72 1.01 1.19 1.29 1.48 1.57 1.66 1.76

Sep.-Nov. 0.27 0.57 0.76 1.06 1.25 1.35 1.55 1.64 1.74 1.84

Annual mean 0.31 0.63 0.94 1.15 1.36 1.57 1.68 1.78 1.89 2.10

Source: Nguyen Van Thang, Hoang Duc Cuong, IMHE of Vietnam


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Table 3.6. Projected change n ranall n each o the decades o the 21st century as compared to 1990s (%)

Scenaro Average temperature 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

High

Dec.-Feb. -0.9 -1.5 -2.2 -3.3 -4.8 -6.5 -8.0 -9.5 -10.7 -11.8

Mar.-May -.02 -0.4 -4.4 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -2.6 -2.7 -2.9

Jun.-Aug. 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.9 5.6 7.6 9.4 11.1 12.5 13.8

Sep.-Nov. 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.3 7.6 10.3 12.8 15.1 17.1 18.8

Annual mean 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.9 4.2 5.7 7.1 8.3 9.4 10.3

Medium

Dec.-Feb. -0.8 -1.4 -2.3 -3.4 -4.3 -5.3 -.61 -7.0 -7.5 -7.9

Mar.-May -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.0

Jun.-Aug. 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.0 6.2 7.2 8.0 8.7 9.3

Sep.-Nov. 1.3 2.2 3.7 5.3 6.8 8.4 9.8 11.0 11.9 12.7

Annual mean 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.0 3.7 4.6 5.5 6.1 6.3 7.0

Low

Dec.-Feb. -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -3.5 -4.2 -4.7 -5.1 -5.5 -5.7 -5.8

Mar.-May -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6

Jun.-Aug. 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.8

Sep.-Nov. 1.8 3.0 4.4 5.6 6.6 7.5 8.2 8.8 9.1 9.3

Annual mean 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.2

Source: Nguyen Van Thang, Hoang Duc Cuong, IMHE of Vietnam

3.3.4 Sea level rise projections

Undr h high mission scnarios, by h yar 2050, salvl is projcd o ris by abou 33cm by h mid 21scnury and by abou 100cm by h nd o 21s cnury.

Undr h mdium mission scnarios, sa lvl is projcdo ris by abou 30cm by h mid 21s cnury and by abou74cm by h nd o 21s cnury (abl 3.7).

Table 3.7. Projected sea level rse n the decades o the 21st century as compared to 1990s (mm)

Annual scenaro 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

High (A1FI) 12 17 24 33 44 57 71 86 100

Medium (B2) 12 17 23 30 37 46 54 64 74


Fgure 3.2. Projected sea level rse n the decades o the 21st century

as compared to 1990s (mm)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

A1FI

B2


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3.4 Conclusions

Ha inh provinc is likly o xprinc mor1.variabl wahr (including inrasasonal and inrannual variabiliy in clima) and associad disasrs

such as inns ha wavs, havy rainall xrms,svr oods and droughs, srongr cyclons andassociad sorm surgs, mor prsisn and srongrENSO vn and a posiiv rnd in sa lvl ris inh 21s cnury.

As in many placs, climaic chang and h nhancd2.variabiliy in clima in Ha inh, basd on h currnscinic undrsanding, can no b atribudxclusivly o anhropognic acors (i could b duo a combinaion o naural variabiliy and humanaciviis).

surac air mpraur is obsrvd o b3.signicanly highr in rcn dcad. avragmpraur in Ha inh ovr h pas 4550 yars

has incrasd by 0.7C 1.0C. rising rnd inmpraur in Ha inh as wll as in Norh Cnralrgion is highr han ha in Norh Dla, Souh Dla,Souh Cnral, Cnral Highlands and Norh Eas,Norh Ws.

rnd in numbr o hawavs and ho days a Ha4.inh is considrd o b saisically signican.Mos o h ohr climaic paramrs in Ha inh do5.no xhibi any signican chang in rnd. annualavrag incras/dcras spd is a approximalyidnical lvl o ha o h climaic paramrs wihchangs in rnd. clima chang scnarios o Ha inh ar basically6.h sam as hos o Norh Cnral rgion. Mosnoicably, h annual man mpraur a h ndo h 21s cnury is likly o incras by 20C40C,

rainall in dry sasons is projcd o dcras by112% only, rainall in rainy sasons is projcd oincras by 619% and sa lvl is projcd o risby 74 100cm.


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Trend in annual sunshine hours - Ha Tinh station

R

y = -1.5954x + 1662.92

= 0.0206

1200

1500

1800

2100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Year

Sunshineh

ours(h)

Trend in annual sunshine hours - Huong Khe station

y = -3.4259x + 1368.8

R2

= 0.0075

1200

1400

1600

1800

0 10 20 30 40 50

Year

Sunshine

hours(h)

Trend in sunshine hours - Ky Anh station

y = -7.0834x + 1778.3

R2

= 0.1185

1200

1500

1800

2100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Year

Sunshineh

ours(h)


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Trend in annual average air temperature - Ha Tinh station

y = 0.0142x + 23.703

R2

= 0.1512

21

22

23

24

25

26

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Year

Temperature(C)

Trend in annual average air temperature - Huong Khe stationy = 0.0246x + 23.243

R2

= 0.4068

2223

24

25

26

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Temp

erature(C)

Year

Trend in annual average air temperature -Ky Anh station

y = 0.0251x + 23.423

R2

= 0.0367

21

22

23

24

25

26

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Temperature(C)

Year


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Temperature(C)

Trend in annual maximum air temperature - Ha Tinh station

y = 0.0213x + 38.106

R2

= 0.1258

36

38

40

42

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Year

Temperature(C)

Year

y = 0.033x + 37.98

R = 0.006

36

38

40

42

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Trend in annual maximum air temperature - Huong Khe station

Temperature(C)

Year

Trend in annual maximum air temperature - Ky Anh station

y = 0.0065x + 38.036

R2 = 0.0077

36

38

40

42

0 10 20 30 40 50 60


37/67


38/67


Year

Trend in annual rainfall - Ha Tinh station

y = 8.4765x + 2220.5

R2

= 0.0466

1300

1800

2300

2800

3300

38004300

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Rainfall(mm)

Year

Rainfall(mm)

Trend in annual rainfall - Huong Khe station

y = -0.5155x + 2370.8

R2

= 0.0002

1300

1800

2300

2800

3300

3800

4300

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Year

Rainfall(mm)

Trend in annual rainfall - Ky Anh stationy = -11.196x + 3050.3

R2 = 0.04

1300

1800

2300

2800

3300

3800

4300

0 10 20 30 40 50 60


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Rainfall(mm)

Trend in annual maximum rainfall - Ha Tinh station

y = 2.0354x + 229.8

R2

= 0.0747

0

200

400

600

800

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Year

Rainfall(mm)

Year

Trend in annual maximum rainfall - Huong Khe station

y = 0.4188x + 240.73

R2

= 0.0044

0100

200

300

400

500

600

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Rainfall(mm)

Year

Trend in annual maximum rainfall - Ky Anh station

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

y = 1.5754x + 213.52

R2 = 0.054


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y = 2.6194x + 738.48

R2

= 0.0577

620

720

820

920

1020

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Trend in annual evaporation - Ha Tinh station

Evaporation(mm)

Year

Evaporation(mm)

Year

Trend in annual evaporation - Huong Khe station

y = -4.0604x + 1004.2

R2

= 0.0909

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Evaporation(mm)

Year

Trend in annual evaporation - Ky Anh station

y = -6.4177x + 1189.5

R

2

= 0.0882

880

1080

1280

1480

0 10 20 30 40 50


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Year

Trend in average air temperature in January - Ha Tinh station

y = 0.0224x + 17.092

R2

= 0.0549

14

16

18

20

22

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Temperature(C)

Year

Temperature(C)

Trend in average air temperature in January - Huong Khe station

y = 0.0415x + 16.681

R2

= 0.1397

14

16

18

20

22

0 10 20 30 40 50

Year

Temperature(C)

Trend in average air temperature in January - Ky Anh station

y = 0.027x + 17.404

R2 = 0.0619

15

17

19

0 10 20 30 40 50


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Temperature(C)

Trend in average air temperature in April - Ha Tinh station

y = 0.0158x + 24.067

R2

= 0.0322

20

22

24

26

28

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Year

Te

mperature(C)

Year

Trend in average air temperature in April - Huong Khe station

y = 0.0295x + 24.282

R2

= 0.0868

20

22

24

26

28

0 10 20 30 40 50

Temperature(C)

Year

Trend in average air temperature in April - Ky Anh station

y = 0.0238x + 24.123

R 2 = 0.0578

20

22

24

26

28

0 10 20 30 40 50


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Temperature(C)

Year

Trend in average air temperature in July - Ha Tinh station

y = 0.0212x + 29.132

R2

= 0.1683

28

29

30

31

32

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Temperature(C)

Year

Trend in average air temperature in July - Huong Khe station

y = 0.0182x + 28.779

R2

= 0.0938

28

29

30

31

32

0 10 20 30 40 50

Temperature(C)

Year

Trend in averag

Documents

HaTinh Climate change