Harnessing the True Power of the Sun A Revolutionary Spectrum-Splitting CPV design

Berkeley; December 5th, 2014

1 mile2 of Berkeley sunlight…

1 mile2 of Berkeley sunlight…

¼ of U.S. energy consumption

< 1% of U.S. energy from solar

Cell Efficiency

~ 99%

~ 20%

What if…

<< 1%

~ 40%

~ 65% Module

Efficiency

~ 35% ∝

~ 18% ∝

~ 50% ∝

Cell Efficiency

~ 99%

~ 20%

What if…

<< 1%

~ 40%

~ 65% Module

Efficiency

~ 35% ∝

~ 18% ∝

~ 50% ∝

Atwater Research Group

Prof. Harry Atwater Howard Hughes Prof.

Applied Physics & Material Science

John Lloyd PhD student

Material Science

Sunita Darbe PhD student

Material Science

Cristofer Flowers PhD student

Chemical Engineering

funded research project

Achieving 50% Module Efficiency

Module Efficiency 18%

Module Efficiency 35%

Module Efficiency* > 50%

*Goal

Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum Splitting

PV

Achieving 50% Module Efficiency

Module Efficiency 18%

Module Efficiency 35%

Module Efficiency* > 50%

*Goal

Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum Splitting

PV

Primary Concentrator

Secondary Concentrator

Tailored PV Cells Specialized Mirrors

How Does It Work?

A Superior Technology in Most Dimensions

Efficiency

High-Temperature Performance

Choice of Light Absorber

Grid Integration/ Broad Shoulders

Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum

Splitting PV

Module Assembly

Single-Junction PV

Concentrated PV

Spectrum Splitting PV

Hour of Day 10 12 14 16 17

Annu

al a

vera

ge P

ower

/ La

nd a

rea

[nor

mal

ized

]

1

0.4

0.8

0.6

0.2

0 8

Explosive Solar Industry Growth

But higher efficiency CPV accounts for less than 1% of the market

0

50

100

150

200

2013 2014 2011

2009 2008 2010

+51%

2012

Installed Capacity [GW]

PV Cost Declines

45%

Sc

ale

11%

A Brighter Future Expected for CPV

Greater technological

acceptance

Lower trackers cost

Favorable competitive

environment

CPV is projected to grow by 750% by 2020

A Brighter Future Expected for CPV

Greater technological

acceptance

Lower trackers

cost

Favorable competitive

environment

Projects Larger than 2MW by 2012

• Greater Field Data • Better Informed

Certification Process

Projects Larger than 2MW after 2012

One Over 15

A Brighter Future Expected for CPV

Greater technological

acceptance

Lower trackers

cost

Favorable competitive

environment

Scale Innovation

2-axis trackers market to triple

by 2016

Topper Sun projects to

reduce trackers cost 30% by 2015

20%-30% of system

cost

Upward pressures on PV module prices

• Silicon prices will rise by 15% in 2015

• Supply and demand balance

A Brighter Future Expected for CPV

Greater technological

acceptance

Lower trackers

cost

Favorable competitive

environment

Grid integration

Grid integration challenges with PV

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Hour of Day

Lo

aD

[M

W]

5

4

3

2

Hawaii Non-solar generation requirement

Unstable grid Stable grid

0.11 2.23 0.14

Value Propositions: first pilot

LCOE1 CAPEX2 Land Usage

Single-Junction PV

Concentrated PV

Spectrum-splitting PV

3.00

2.32

2.82

0.14

3.50

2.80

1.55

1 Levelized cost of energy 2 Capital expenditures

0.11 2.23 0.14

Value Propositions: 2020

LCOE1 CAPEX2 Land Usage

Single-Junction PV

Concentrated PV

Spectrum-splitting PV 1 Levelized cost of energy 2 Capital expenditures

3.00

2.32

2.82

0.14

3.50

2.80

1.55 0.08

0.07

1.21

1.06

1.20

1.00

3.00

2.30

0.09 0.08 1.16

1.10

1 Levelized cost of energy 2 Capital expenditures

0.11 2.23

0.14

Value Propositions: 2020

LCOE* CAPEX* Land Usage

Single-Junction PV

Concentrated PV

Spectrum-splitting PV

3.00

2.32

2.82

0.14

3.50

2.80

1.55 0.08

0.07

1.21

1.06

1.20

1.00

3.00

2.30

0.09 0.08

1.16 1.10

But How?

0.14

0.08

0.07

1.21

1.06

2.82

Decrease in tracker and

optical devices

costs at scale will be

the key drivers

Initial Market Entry

Caribbean $0.30-.45

Pacific Islands $0.3-1.0

Philippines $0.36

Australia $0.31

Italy $0.28

Portugal $0.25

Chile $0.23

Spain $0.23

Singapore $0.21

1) High DNI 2) High WTP ($/kWh) 3) Land Constrained

An Early Market: the Caribbean Islands

Millions without electricity

Average $0.39/kWh

High DNI (5.5 on average)

Competing uses for land

Market Growth and Strong Capacity Additions…

4GW 1GW 0GW

Bahamas

Barbados

Trinidad & Tob

Grenada

Haiti

Jamaica

St-Lucia

Antigua & Barbuda

Forecast in 10 Years

Current

Selected islands generation capacity forecast

… likely to come from renewables

“We realized that our dependency on fossil fuels was leading to political and economic instability. We had to act.”

--Aruba’s Energy Minister

“Renewables will provide new jobs and companies will be able to expand more easily.”

--St Lucia's Energy and Science Minister

“Renewables have come slowly to the Caribbean but the technology is now cheap enough and diverse enough to make it much easier to install.”

--Rocky Mountain Institute

The Caribbean Markets... G

DP

/c

ap

Typical electricity rates

$0k

$20k

$40k

$60k

$80k

0c/kWh 5c/kWh 10c/kWh 15c/kWh 20c/kWh 25c/kWh 30c/kWh 35c/kWh 40c/kWh 45c/kWh 50c/kWh 55c/kWh

BVI

Bermuda

Grenada

Cayman Island Antigua & Barbuda

Dominican Rep. Jamaica

Barbados Martinique

US VI

Curacao

Haiti

St-Lucia

Bahamas

Trin&Tob

Guadeloupe

Aruba

1,000MW

High Electricity

Rates

Cost Competitive

Long term competitiveness threshold

... Pain Points Are Aligned with our Value Prop

Land Scarcity

Growing Energy Demand

Costly Electricit

y

“A critical problem is the acute scarcity of arable land”

-- Office for Sustainable Development and Environment

“to keep up with demand from residential and tourism sectors, we will have to increase generation capacity solar is an option”

-- Barbados Light & Power, regulated utility in Barbados

“islands are heavily reliant on diesel and heavy fuel oil and are vulnerable to fluctuations in the supply and cost of

fossil fuels”

-- UN Climate Summit

High density Renewable & abundant Cost competitive

High efficiency concentrating solar can be part of the answer

Licensing Manufacturing Partnership/ Joint Venture

Options

Reaching Scale Through Partnerships

Pilot Scale R&D

Best alignment

of competencies & resources

The Next-Generation of High-Efficiency PV

Superior, cost-competitive technology

Favorable early market

Scale through partnerships

Thank You

UC Berkeley C2M Team

Caltech Atwater Research

Group

Prof. Harry Atwater

Howard Hughes Prof. Applied Physics & Material Science

John Lloyd

PhD student Material Science

Sunita Darbe

PhD student Material Science

Cristofer Flowers

PhD student Chemical Engineering

Christian Pfab

Haas MBA

David Garfield

PhD student

Chemistry

Kurt Sheline

Haas MBA

Moulay Driss B. Mrani

Haas MBA

Dan Bu

PhD student

Eng & Ops.

Serge Ouedraogo

Haas MBA

Questions?

Backup

Partnership Opportunities

Plant Development

Research & Development

Manufacturing Operations & Maintenance

Components

Fully integrated PV

CPV

&

System Integration

Developer

EPC

O&M