Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11

8/3/2019 Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11

1/18

Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests, Ex-Vessel Prices,and Ex-Vessel Value, 1980-2011

Trends in Alaska Salmon Wholesale Prices, 2001-2011

Gunnar Knapp

Professor of Economics

University of Alaska Anchorage

[email protected]

907-786-7717


2/18

About this presentation

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game recently released preliminary estimates ofthe ex-vessel value of the 2011 Alaska commercial salmon harvest. The estimates

for 2011 and earlier years may be found at:http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.salmoncatch

I prepared the graphs on slides 4-11 to see what trends in harvests, prices andvalues have been for the past 31 years.

The Alaska Department of Revenue releases reports every four months with data

reported by large Alaska salmon processors for wholesale sales volume, value andaverage wholesale prices of major salmon products. These reports are available at:

www.tax.alaska.gov/programs/programs/other/fish/salmonreports

I prepared the graphs on slides 13-18 of this presentation to see what trends inwholesale prices for Alaska salmon products have been over the past 10 years.

I am sharing this presentation because the graphs may be of interest to others.


3/18

Alaska salmon harvest volumes were very similar in 2010 and 2011 for all species.

Alaska Salmon Harvest Volume

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

millionsof

poun

ds

Chum

Pink

Coho

Sockeye

Chinook


4/18

2010 and 2011 harvest volumes were relatively high compared with historic levels forpink salmon but relatively more average for sockeye and chum salmon. However,

sockeye harvests were significantly higher than in the period 1997-2003.

Alaska Salmon Harvest Volume, by Species

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

millionso

fpoun

ds

Pink

Sockeye

Chum

Coho

Chinook


5/18

In the following graphs, I show prices and value in two ways:* Nominal prices and values (not adjusted for inflation)

* Real prices and values (adjusted for inflation based on theAnchorage Consumer Price Index) and expressed in 2001 dollars)

Anchorage CPI and Inflation Adjustment Factor

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Anc

hora

ge

CPI(1982-1

984average=

100)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Infla

tiona

djus

tmen

tfac

tor

Anchorage CPI

Adjustment factor forconverting to 2011 dollars

Note: To convert from nominal dollars to "real" (inflation-adjusted)2011 dollars, multiply the price or value by the inflation-adjustment

factor for that year.

A dollar had twice thepurchasing power in 1983

that it has in 2011


6/18

Preliminary ex-vessel prices for all species were similar in 2010 and 2011. Final ex-vessel prices(after ADFG adjusts for post-season payments) will likely be somewhat higher. Ex-vessel priceshave strengthened dramatically since 2002 for all species, and are higher than they have been

since the late or early 1990s for all species. Chinook prices are at near record levels.

Alaska Salmon Statewide Average Ex-Vessel Prices, by Species

(nominal prices-not adjusted for inflation)

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

$/lb

Chinook

Sockeye

Coho

Chum

Pink


7/18

Adjusting for inflation makes ex-vessel prices appear relatively higher in the 1980s and1990s when the purchasing power of a dollar was considerably higher than today (it wastwice as high in 1983). After adjusting for inflation, the improvement in ex-vessel prices

since 2002 still appears dramatic for all species. Adjusted for inflation, prices for sockeyesalmon remain lower than they were for most of the 1990s.

Alaska Salmon Real Statewide Average Ex-Vessel Prices, by Species

(adjusted for inflation, expressed in 2011 dollars)

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

$/lb(

2011

dollar

s) Chinook

Sockeye

Coho

Chum

Pink


8/18

This graphs shows nominal ex-vessel prices converted to indexes, so that trends in prices can bemore easily compared across species. Chum and pink salmon prices have increased the mostdramatically since 2002, while sockeye prices have increased the least. For each species, the

100% line shows the average price for the entire period.Indexes of Alaska Salmon Ex-Vessel Prices, 1980-2011

(not adjusted for inflation)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

1

980

1

982

1

984

1

986

1

988

1

990

1

992

1

994

1

996

1

998

2

000

2

002

2

004

2

006

2

008

2

010

Source: ADFG. Note: 1988 price indexes peaked well above 200% for most species.

P

riceas

%

of1980

-2011average

Chinook

Coho

Sockeye

Pink

Chum


9/18

Here is the same price index graph adjusted for inflation.

Indexes of Real Alaska Salmon Ex-Vessel Prices, 1980-2011

(adjusted for inflation)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

1

980

1

982

1

984

1

986

1

988

1

990

1

992

1

994

1

996

1

998

2

000

2

002

2

004

2

006

2

008

2

010

Source: ADFG. Note: 1988 price indexes peaked well above 200% for most species.

Rea

lpriceas

%

of19

80-2

011average

Chinook

Coho

Sockeye

Pink

Chum


10/18

This graph shows the total ex-vessel value of Alaska salmon harvests in nominal dollars.The nominal ex-vessel value in 2011 (before final price adjustments) was almost the same

as in 2010 and 1992 (about $600 million) but well below the record 1988 value of $781

million. Clearly in nominal terms both 2010 and 2011 were very good years, anddramatically higher than in 2002.

Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska Salmon Harvests

(expressed in nominal dollars-not adjusted for inflation)

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

millionso

fdolla

rs

Chum

Pink

Coho

Sockeye

Chinook


11/18

Adjusted for inflation, the 2010 and 2011 harvests still show a dramatic recovery in value since2002, but remain below real-ex-vessel values for most of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska Salmon Harvests

(adjusted for inflation, expressed in 2011 dollars)

0.0

300.0

600.0

900.0

1200.0

1500.0

1

980

1

982

1

984

1

986

1

988

1

990

1

992

1

994

1

996

1

998

2

000

2

002

2

004

2

006

2

008

2

010

millionso

f201

1do

llars

Chum

Pink

Coho

Sockeye

Chinook


12/18

Alaska Department of Revenue Salmon Price Reports

Wholesale Price Data

Every four months, large Alaska salmon processors (those with sales exceeding 1million pounds in the previous calendar year) are required to submit salmon pricereports to the Alaska Department of Revenue. These reports are available at:

www.tax.alaska.gov/programs/programs/other/fish/salmonreports The reports include average wholesale prices (total value / total volume) reported by

all Alaska processors for the following four-month periods:

January-April (I)

May-August (II)

September-December (III) On the following six slides I have graphed average wholesale prices since 2001 for

the six major product forms for Alaska salmon

In general, except for salmon roe, the graphs show:

Dramatic increases in wholesale prices since 2001

Similar wholesale prices in 2010 and 2011: prices in 2011 were up for somespecies and products and down for others, but with few dramatic changes

Salmon roe prices have exhibited distinctly different trends from other salmon productprices, and also fluctuate widely between different four-month periods.


13/18

Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors:

Canned Sockeye and Pink ($/48-can case)

$0.00

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

$160.00

2001-I

2001-I

I

2001-I

II

2002-I

2002-I

I

2002-I

II

2003-I

2003-I

I

2003-I

II

2004-I

2004-I

I

2004-I

II

2005-I

2005-I

I

2005-I

II

2006-I

2006-I

I

2006-I

II

2007-I

2007-I

I

2007-I

II

2008-I

2008-I

I

2008-I

II

2009-I

2009-I

I

2009-I

II

2010-I

2010-I

I

2010-I

II

2011-I

2011-I

I

2011-I

II

I = Jan-Apr; II = May-Aug; III = Sep-DecSource: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports

$/48-ca

ncase

Sockeyetalls

Sockeyehalves

Pink talls

Pink halves


14/18


Frozen H&G

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

2001-I

2001-I

I

2001-I

II

2002-I

2002-I

I

2002-I

II

2003-I

2003-I

I

2003-I

II

2004-I

2004-I

I

2004-I

II

2005-I

2005-I

I

2005-I

II

2006-I

2006-I

I

2006-I

II

2007-I

2007-I

I

2007-I

II

2008-I

2008-I

I

2008-I

II

2009-I

2009-I

I

2009-I

II

2010-I

2010-I

I

2010-I

II

2011-I

2011-I

I

2011-I

II

I = Jan-Apr; II = May-Aug; III = Sep-Dec; Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Report

$/lb

Chinook

Sockeye

Coho

Pink

Chum


15/18


Frozen Fillets

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

2001-I

2001-I

I

2001-I

II

2002-I

2002-I

I

2002-I

II

2003-I

2003-I

I

2003-I

II

2004-I

2004-I

I

2004-I

II

2005-I

2005-I

I

2005-I

II

2006-I

2006-I

I

2006-I

II

2007-I

2007-I

I

2007-I

II

2008-I

2008-I

I

2008-I

II

2009-I

2009-I

I

2009-I

II

2010-I

2010-I

I

2010-I

II

2011-I

2011-I

I

2011-I

II


$/lb

Chinook

Sockeye

Coho

Pink

Chum


16/18

Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors,

May-August: Fresh H&G

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports

$/lb

Chinook

Sockeye

Coho

Chum

Pink


17/18

Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors,

May-August: Fresh Fillets

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports

$/lb

Chinook

Sockeye

Coho

Chum


18/18

Average First Wholesale Prices Received by Alaska Salmon Processors:Roe

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

$18.00

2001-I

2001-I

I

2001-I

II

2002-I

2002-I

I

2002-I

II

2003-I

2003-I

I

2003-I

II

2004-I

2004-I

I

2004-I

II

2005-I

2005-I

I

2005-I

II

2006-I

2006-I

I

2006-I

II

2007-I

2007-I

I

2007-I

II

2008-I

2008-I

I

2008-I

II

2009-I

2009-I

I

2009-I

II

2010-I

2010-I

I

2010-I

II

2011-I

2011-I

I

2011-I

II


$/lb

Chinook

Sockeye

Coho

Pink

Chum

Documents

Gunnar Knapp Graphs of Trends in Alaska Salmon Harvests Prices and Value 11.10.11