Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring Implementation Plan

GCOOS Board of Directors Meeting26-27 Feb 2008

Alan Lewitus

Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan (2001)

Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Coastal Goal – reduce the 5-yearrunning average of the hypoxic zoneto less than 5,000 km2 by the year 2015 by reducing the annual dischargeof N into the Gulf

Areal Extent of Hypoxic Zone – Coastal Goal Metric

Rabalais et al.

30.0

Latit

ude

29.5

29.0

28.5

-93.0 -92.0 -91.0 -90.0 -89.0

Atchafalaya R.

Mississippi R.Louisiana

Gulf of Mexico

Bottom Water Hypoxia, July 23-29, 1997

Task Force Reassessment Process

GulfScience

UpperMiss

Lower Basin

Science Advisory Board Panel Review

Task Force Revisions to Action Plan of 2001

Source,Fate, andTransport

Coordinating Committee Synthesis & Recommendations

4 Symposia

Need for Extension of Monitoring

• Action Plan (2001): “greatly expand the long-term monitoring program for the hypoxic zone, including greater temporal and spatial data collection, measurements of macro-nutrient and micronutrient concentrations, and hypoxia…”

• Monitoring, Modeling, and Research Workgroup Report (MMR, 2004): “…(monitoring) efforts need to be increased in frequency, at a minimum monthly from May through September. To develop a more complete understanding of ecosystem dynamics, selected sites should be monitored year-round. The spatial boundaries of some of these existing monitoring efforts should be expanded to collect data for defining boundary conditions in modeling efforts."

Need for Extension of Monitoring

• EPA SAB Report (2007): “…affirms and reiterates the CENR’s call to improve and expand monitoring of the temporal and spatial extent of hypoxia and the processes controlling its formation…”

• 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan: “…improved characterization of nutrient flux and hypoxic zone properties is needed to further refine management strategies…Improvements in hypoxic zone monitoring are needed to better characterize its magnitude and the processes that lead to its development, maintenance, and distribution as well as its impacts. Greater temporal and spatial coverage in monitoring efforts are needed to account for variability and pre-cruise storm events, define boundaries, characterize seasonality, and support modeling efforts.”

Summit on Gulf Hypoxic Zone Monitoring

Summit on Long-Term Monitoring of the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone: Developing the Implementation Plan for an Operational Observation System

http://www.ngi.msstate.edu/hypoxia/janconference.html

Summit Outcomes

• White Paper to Improve Monitoring of the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone in Support of the Hypoxia Task Force’s Coastal Goal

• White Paper: Compilation of a Hypoxia Data Inventory

• Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring Implementation Plan

http://www.ngi.msstate.edu/hypoxia/whitePaper.html

Implementation Plan Committees

Steering Committee Technical Committee

Alan Lewitus (NOAA), co-chair Jim Ammerman (Rutgers)

Nancy Rabalais (LUMCON), co-chair Bob Arnone (NRL)

Phil Bass (EPA) Brenda Babin (LUMCON)

Russ Beard (NOAA) Charlie Crawford (USGS)

Rick Greene (EPA) Steve DiMarco (TAMU)

Ann Jochens (TAMU) Jim Hagy (EPA)

Steve Lohrenz (USM) Sharon Mesick (NOAA)

David Shaw (MSU) Rich Patchen (NOAA)

Janice Ward (USGS) Nancy Rabalais (LUMCON)

Dave Whitall (NOAA)

Implementation Plan Committees

Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring Stakeholder Committee

Joe Stinus (NOAA), Chair Ann Jochens (TAMU)

Scott Phipps (AL DCNR) Charles Kovach (FL DEP)

Dugan Sabins (LA DEQ) Kris Pintado (LA DEQ)

Gregory DuCote (LA DNR) Henry Folmar (MS DEQ)

Mark Fisher (TX CEQ) Ed Buskey (U. Texas)

http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/activities/gulf-hypoxia-stakeholders/view

Management Drivers

• Provide sufficient monitoring data to ensure that management is adequately informed in efforts to achieve the Coastal Goal of the Action Plan

• Assess annual changes in the magnitude, seasonality, duration, and distribution of hypoxia, and relate these to management activities that affect nutrient loading and other influences on hypoxia

Management Drivers

• Provide adequate data for predictive models to develop accurate forecasts of hypoxia given alternative management targets for nutrient reduction and alternative scenarios of climate change

• Determine the relationship between hypoxic zone magnitude, timing, and distribution, and the distribution, production, and health of ecologically and commercially important finfish and shellfish

Transect C

Transect F

**

*

*

*

*

*

*C6C/CSI-6

CSI-9

C

D

Current Monitoring Program

System Requirements

• Expand spatial boundaries and increase frequency of surveys

• Increase coverage by instrumented observing systems

• Integrated sampling (AUVs, remote sensing)• Improve models on hypoxia causes and effects• Improve accuracy of nutrient loading data• Create a portal to maximize accessibility to, and

exchange of, hypoxia data• Outreach program to promote effective

communications to increase awareness of hypoxia

System Requirements - Prioritization

Core

• Characterize the annual area and volume of hypoxia as metrics to determine whether mitigation measures on nutrient reductions are having an effect.

• Maintain the two transects (off Atchafalaya and Terrebonne/Timbalier) for the continuity and for the relationships with river constituent data.

• Dissemination of information to managers, basic web site information.

• Archival of the data in NODC, as currently required.

System Requirements - Prioritization

Non-core (to be ranked)

• use of coastal observing systems and AUVs to improve characterization of hypoxia and its causes

• on survey cruises, collection of physical, chemical, and biological data that support models determining causes of hypoxia

• metrics on direct effects, such as benthos and fisheries independent surveys (basic information); also ancillary metrics (e.g. from remote sensing)

• public outreach of hypoxia information, nutrient issues, policy decisions etc.

• modeling efforts that are currently covered under ‘research’ funds.

• other efforts that are covered by other agencies or funding avenues

• more ‘research’ oriented, e.g. nutrient bioassays, indirect effects

Core System Requirements

• Expand spatial boundaries of shelf-wide surveys

Data source: N. Rabalais, LUMCON Map by A. Sapp, LUMCON

High: 9

Low: 0

Data source: N. Rabalais, LUMCON Map by A. Sapp, LUMCON

High: 9

Low: 0

O2 miminum water

Local, MissR or Pearl R water some Mobile Bay on E

MissR or PearlR

water

Mobile Bay water

Mis

s R

wat

er

Increase number of surveys

Currently:

• one mid-summer shelf-wide survey

• monthly sampling at Transect C south of Terrebonne Bay, and bimonthly sampling at Transect F off the Atchafalaya River (11 cruises/year)

Implementation Plan:

• 8 surveys/year (Apr, May, Jun, Jul (2), Aug (2), Sep)

• Maintain current design for transects

Core System Requirements

Tier 2 System Requirements

Increase number of observing systems

Frequency of mid -summer bottom-water hypoxia, 1985 -2002

LUMCON/LSU WAVCIS/BIO2LUMCON/LSU potential sitesTAMU siteUSM site = USM3Suggested additional sites

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25%

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

Transect CTransect A

14

Transect F

Frequency of mid -summer bottom-water hypoxia, 1985 -2002

LUMCON/LSU WAVCIS/BIO2LUMCON/LSU potential sitesTAMU siteUSM site = USM3Suggested additional sites

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25%

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

Transect CTransect A

14

Transect F

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25%

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

Transect CTransect A

14

Transect F

Add 2 Buoys East of Mississippi River

Implementation Plan Matrix

System Requirement

Lead (L) and

Collaborators

(C)

FY08 Plans FY08 Funding Critical Needs

for FY09 Estimated FY09 Cost

Long-term

Goal & Cost

Questions/needs

Priority

System Requirement

Lead (L) and

Collaborators

(C)

FY08 Plans FY08 Funding Critical Needs

for FY09 Estimated FY09 Cost

Long-term

Goal & Cost

Questions/needs

Priority

Actions:

1) Hypoxic Zone characterization

2) Causes of Hypoxia

3) Impacts of Hypoxia

4) Data Management

5) Outreach