Report of the Ohio Report of the Ohio River Sub Basin River Sub Basin Committee for Committee for

Reduction of Hypoxia Reduction of Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexicoin the Gulf of Mexico

February, 2008February, 2008

Nitrogen Source DistributionNitrogen Source Distribution

Goolsby, et alGoolsby, et al

Steering Committee MembersSteering Committee Members Illinois Department of AgricultureIllinois Department of Agriculture Indiana Dept of Environmental ManagementIndiana Dept of Environmental Management Indiana Department of AgricultureIndiana Department of Agriculture Kentucky Department of Environmental ProtectionKentucky Department of Environmental Protection Kentucky Division of ConservationKentucky Division of Conservation Ohio Department of Natural ResourcesOhio Department of Natural Resources Ohio EPAOhio EPA Pennsylvania Conservation CommissionPennsylvania Conservation Commission Tennessee Department of Environmental ConsTennessee Department of Environmental Cons West Virginia Conservation AgencyWest Virginia Conservation Agency West Virginia Department of AgricultureWest Virginia Department of Agriculture West Virginia Department of Environmental ProtectionWest Virginia Department of Environmental Protection ORSANCOORSANCO

Progress to DateProgress to Date Seven Steering Committee meetings.Seven Steering Committee meetings. Briefings on Gulf Hypoxia.Briefings on Gulf Hypoxia. Presentations on Nutrient Reduction efforts. Presentations on Nutrient Reduction efforts. Framework for Nutrient Reduction Strategy completed.Framework for Nutrient Reduction Strategy completed. Ohio elected chair state and invited to join the Task Ohio elected chair state and invited to join the Task

Force.Force. Makeup of Stakeholder Group determined.Makeup of Stakeholder Group determined. Review of Emerging Documents.Review of Emerging Documents. Attended October, 2007meeting of Hypoxia Task Force. Attended October, 2007meeting of Hypoxia Task Force. Monthly conference callsMonthly conference calls

Reassessment of Reassessment of Hypoxia Action PlanHypoxia Action Plan

Initiated in August, 2005Initiated in August, 2005 SAB- Hypoxia Advisory PanelSAB- Hypoxia Advisory Panel Four Scientific SymposiaFour Scientific Symposia Management Action Review Team – proposed Management Action Review Team – proposed

revised actionsrevised actions Reconsideration of Roles Reconsideration of Roles Draft SAB report completed in May, 2007Draft SAB report completed in May, 2007 Draft Revised Action Plan adopted for public Draft Revised Action Plan adopted for public

review in October, 2007.review in October, 2007.

Other Related Other Related DevelopmentsDevelopments

USGS SPARROW ModelingUSGS SPARROW Modeling NAS Mississippi River ReportNAS Mississippi River Report 100 Watersheds Assessment100 Watersheds Assessment Corps of Engineers – Lower Corps of Engineers – Lower

Mississippi Assessment.Mississippi Assessment.

The SAB ChargeThe SAB Charge The SAB was asked to address the state of the The SAB was asked to address the state of the

science of hypoxia as well as the scientific basis for science of hypoxia as well as the scientific basis for mitigating hypoxia through management optionsmitigating hypoxia through management options

SAB was asked to focus on scientific advancements SAB was asked to focus on scientific advancements since 2000 relating to 3 general areas:since 2000 relating to 3 general areas: Characterization of the Causes of HypoxiaCharacterization of the Causes of Hypoxia Characterization of Nutrient Fate, Transport and Characterization of Nutrient Fate, Transport and

SourcesSources Scientific Basis for Goals and Management OptionsScientific Basis for Goals and Management Options

SAB report URL - http://www.epa.gov/sab/pdf/5-24-07_hap_draft.pdf

Characterizing the Onset, Characterizing the Onset, Volume, Extent and Duration of Volume, Extent and Duration of

HypoxiaHypoxia Models can explain 45-55% of the variation in hypoxic Models can explain 45-55% of the variation in hypoxic

zone area and lengthzone area and length Model development, calibration and verification – hampered Model development, calibration and verification – hampered

by lack of data on key physical, biogeochemical processesby lack of data on key physical, biogeochemical processes No single best modeling approach can be identified – No single best modeling approach can be identified –

managing Gulf hypoxia is best served by having multiple managing Gulf hypoxia is best served by having multiple models with multiple outputsmodels with multiple outputs

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

10 20 30 40 50 60

% N Load Reduction

Are

a (

km)2

Scavia et al 2003, 2004

Nutrient Fate, Transport and Nutrient Fate, Transport and Sources – Flow and FluxSources – Flow and Flux

Fewer rivers and streams are currently monitoredFewer rivers and streams are currently monitored USGS improved nutrient flux estimates USGS improved nutrient flux estimates Annual MARB freshwater discharge increased Annual MARB freshwater discharge increased

slightlyslightly Annual nitrate flux increased from 1960s to 1990s, Annual nitrate flux increased from 1960s to 1990s,

but decreased slightly since the mid-1990s.but decreased slightly since the mid-1990s. Spring freshwater discharge and nitrateSpring freshwater discharge and nitrate

flux show slightly decreasing trendsflux show slightly decreasing trendssince the 1980s.since the 1980s.

USGSMonitoring sites

Upper MSR and Ohio-TN sub-basins account for the 84% Upper MSR and Ohio-TN sub-basins account for the 84% nitrate-N and 64% total P flux to Gulfnitrate-N and 64% total P flux to Gulf

Tile-drained, corn-soybean landscapes very N leaky Tile-drained, corn-soybean landscapes very N leaky The SAB recommends The SAB recommends targeting the tile-drained Corn Belt targeting the tile-drained Corn Belt

region of the MARB for N and P reductions in both surface region of the MARB for N and P reductions in both surface and sub-surface waters. and sub-surface waters.

Nutrient Fate, Transport Nutrient Fate, Transport and Sources – Sub basin and Sources – Sub basin

fluxesfluxes

Nutrient Fate, Transport and Nutrient Fate, Transport and Sources – Mass balanceSources – Mass balance

Nutrient mass balances recalculated since 2000Nutrient mass balances recalculated since 2000 N and net P inputs increased greatly from 1950s, but N and net P inputs increased greatly from 1950s, but

decreased in last decadedecreased in last decade steady or reduced fertilizer applications and increased crop steady or reduced fertilizer applications and increased crop

yields for N and P yields for N and P Non-point sources of N (1999-2005)Non-point sources of N (1999-2005)

54% fertilizer54% fertilizer 37% N37% N22 fixation fixation 9% atmospheric deposition9% atmospheric deposition

Manure more significant sourceManure more significant sourceof P than Nof P than N

New estimates of point source N & PNew estimates of point source N & P 22% of N flux (up from 11% reported in 2000)22% of N flux (up from 11% reported in 2000)

34% of P flux 34% of P flux

The The SAB recommendsSAB recommends obtaining direct measures of N and Pobtaining direct measures of N and P

from point sourcesfrom point sources using sub-basin scale mass balances tousing sub-basin scale mass balances to

target management strategies, focusingtarget management strategies, focusing

on the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Riveron the Upper Mississippi and Ohio River

basins basins

Nutrient Fate, Transport Nutrient Fate, Transport and Sources – Mass and Sources – Mass

balancebalance

TP point source flux as % of total flux

In-stream removal processes (from SPARROW In-stream removal processes (from SPARROW model)model) 20-55% of annual N inputs20-55% of annual N inputs 20-75% of annual P inputs 20-75% of annual P inputs

Relative importance of denitrificationRelative importance of denitrification significant during warm, low flow periods, but not significant significant during warm, low flow periods, but not significant

during high flows in Jan-June (peak nitrate export)during high flows in Jan-June (peak nitrate export) TheThe SAB recommends SAB recommends

enhance hydrologic exchange andenhance hydrologic exchange andretention on floodplainsretention on floodplains

targeted wetlands restoration totargeted wetlands restoration toreduce NPS nutrient loads reduce NPS nutrient loads

Nutrient Fate, Transport Nutrient Fate, Transport and Sourcesand Sources

Evaluation of models of basin-scale processes Evaluation of models of basin-scale processes (SPARROW, SWAT, IBIS/THMB) (SPARROW, SWAT, IBIS/THMB) all capable of N and P load estimation at Basin-scalesall capable of N and P load estimation at Basin-scales each has inherent strengths, limitations and value to each has inherent strengths, limitations and value to

informing decision-makinginforming decision-making

The SABThe SAB indicates indicates the need for the need for modeling flexibility and diversity of modeling approachesmodeling flexibility and diversity of modeling approaches use of new statistical techniques for error estimationuse of new statistical techniques for error estimation seamless linkage between the watershed and Gulf hypoxia seamless linkage between the watershed and Gulf hypoxia

modelsmodels

Nutrient Fate, Transport Nutrient Fate, Transport and Sources - Modelsand Sources - Models

Scientific Basis for Goals and Scientific Basis for Goals and Management OptionsManagement Options

Are the Task Force goals supported by scientific Are the Task Force goals supported by scientific knowledge and understanding of the hypoxic zone?knowledge and understanding of the hypoxic zone?

The SAB discussesThe SAB discusses The importance of adaptive managementThe importance of adaptive management Setting targets for nutrient reductionSetting targets for nutrient reduction Protecting water quality and Protecting water quality and social welfare in the Basin social welfare in the Basin while reducing the areal while reducing the areal

extent of the Gulf hypoxic zoneextent of the Gulf hypoxic zone

Setting targets for nutrient load Setting targets for nutrient load reduction to achieve coastal goalreduction to achieve coastal goal

The The SAB recommendsSAB recommends 45% N load reduction goal45% N load reduction goal

from modeling studies since 2000from modeling studies since 2000 < 3- to 5-fold increase in N load over the last 50 yr< 3- to 5-fold increase in N load over the last 50 yr

40% P load reduction goal40% P load reduction goal need for dual nutrient controlneed for dual nutrient control major PS P removal using best available technologiesmajor PS P removal using best available technologies reducing NPS P loads causing WQ impairmentsreducing NPS P loads causing WQ impairments Ongoing development of freshwater P criteria Ongoing development of freshwater P criteria

The The SAB indicatesSAB indicates Reassess/revise N & P goals within adaptive management Reassess/revise N & P goals within adaptive management

framework as new information becomes availableframework as new information becomes available More important to move in a “directionally correct” fashion More important to move in a “directionally correct” fashion

and learn from monitoring results, rather than delay actionand learn from monitoring results, rather than delay action

Protection of water quality Protection of water quality and social welfare in the and social welfare in the

basinbasin The SABThe SAB finds finds

coastal goal appropriate for nowcoastal goal appropriate for now may need to be revised in the futuremay need to be revised in the future

Reducing hypoxic zone & enhancingReducing hypoxic zone & enhancingBasin water quality are inextricably & positively linkedBasin water quality are inextricably & positively linked

Co-benefits of nutrient reductionCo-benefits of nutrient reduction greenhouse gas mitigationgreenhouse gas mitigation improved wildlife habitat & recreational opportunitiesimproved wildlife habitat & recreational opportunities flood control & other ecosystem servicesflood control & other ecosystem services

Social benefits will likely exceed social cost over the long Social benefits will likely exceed social cost over the long run, if not the short term, & thus enhance social welfarerun, if not the short term, & thus enhance social welfare

0

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1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

July

Hyp

oxia

are

a (k

m2 )

Hypoxic Area

5 year running average

Action Plan Goal

Scientific Basis for Goals and Scientific Basis for Goals and Management OptionsManagement Options

The SAB discussed options for reducing The SAB discussed options for reducing nutrient flux in terms of cost, feasibility, and nutrient flux in terms of cost, feasibility, and other social welfare conditionsother social welfare conditions The most effective agricultural practicesThe most effective agricultural practices The most effective actions for other nonpoint The most effective actions for other nonpoint

sourcessources The most effective technologies for industrial & The most effective technologies for industrial &

municipal point sourcesmunicipal point sources

Most Effective Agricultural Most Effective Agricultural PracticesPractices

Optimal choices will likely include:Optimal choices will likely include: drainage water management, drainage water management, conservation tillage, conservation tillage, manure management, manure management, changing fertilizer application rates and timing, changing fertilizer application rates and timing, crop rotation, crop rotation, cover crops, cover crops, conservation buffers, conservation buffers, wetlands enhancement wetlands enhancement

Watersheds with greatest potential for N and P Watersheds with greatest potential for N and P reductions should be targeted for action to ensure reductions should be targeted for action to ensure cost-effectivenesscost-effectiveness

Targeting allows optimization of cost and benefits. Targeting allows optimization of cost and benefits. An array of economic incentives are recommended to An array of economic incentives are recommended to

encourage conservationencourage conservation

Most Effective Actions for Most Effective Actions for Other Nonpoint SourcesOther Nonpoint Sources

Atmospheric deposition and urban/suburban Atmospheric deposition and urban/suburban storm water runoff are the two major non-storm water runoff are the two major non-agricultural NPSagricultural NPS

Tighter limits on sources of NOx emissions would assist Tighter limits on sources of NOx emissions would assist hypoxia reduction and improve water quality. hypoxia reduction and improve water quality.

Incorporating water quality benefits into decisions involving:Incorporating water quality benefits into decisions involving: Retirement or retrofitting of old coal-fired power plants, Retirement or retrofitting of old coal-fired power plants, NOx controls - extension of current summertime NOx standards to a NOx controls - extension of current summertime NOx standards to a

year-round requirement, year-round requirement, Emissions standards & mileage requirements for SUV’s, heavy trucks Emissions standards & mileage requirements for SUV’s, heavy trucks

and buses. and buses.

Effective Technologies for Effective Technologies for Municipal and Industrial Point Municipal and Industrial Point

SourcesSources

Sewage treatment plants and industrial dischargers Sewage treatment plants and industrial dischargers more significant source of N and Pmore significant source of N and P

The SABThe SAB recommends recommends Upgrade sewage treatment plants in MARB to Biologic Upgrade sewage treatment plants in MARB to Biologic

Nutrient Removal (BNR) or Enhanced Nutrient Removal Nutrient Removal (BNR) or Enhanced Nutrient Removal (ENR) technologies(ENR) technologies

MARB sewage treatment plants upgrade to achieve total MARB sewage treatment plants upgrade to achieve total N concentrations of 3 mg/L and total P concentrations of N concentrations of 3 mg/L and total P concentrations of 0.3 mg/L.0.3 mg/L.

Effective Technologies for Effective Technologies for Municipal and Industrial Point Municipal and Industrial Point

SourcesSources

For industries with high nutrient dischargesFor industries with high nutrient discharges Use a targeted permit by permit approach.Use a targeted permit by permit approach.

Evaluate for opportunities to reduce N and P Evaluate for opportunities to reduce N and P discharges through pollution prevention, process discharges through pollution prevention, process modification or treatmentmodification or treatment

Proposed Revisions to Proposed Revisions to Action PlanAction Plan

Draft developed by Coordinating Draft developed by Coordinating Committee.Committee.

Independent of SAB report.Independent of SAB report. Attempts to add accountability.Attempts to add accountability. Addresses need for funding.Addresses need for funding. Public Comment period closed January Public Comment period closed January

4.4. Revised draft will be presented to the Revised draft will be presented to the

Task Force at its next meeting.Task Force at its next meeting.

January 28 States January 28 States MeetingMeeting

FundingFunding Congressional InitiativeCongressional Initiative Federal AgenciesFederal Agencies

Nutrient Reduction StrategiesNutrient Reduction Strategies States Association – possible letter States Association – possible letter

to Governors.to Governors.

Next Task Force MeetingNext Task Force Meeting

February 28-29 in ChicagoFebruary 28-29 in Chicago Public Session February 28 Public Session February 28 Coordinating Committee will meet Coordinating Committee will meet

February 27 for discussion of February 27 for discussion of SPARROW modeling.SPARROW modeling.

Public Release of USGS Public Release of USGS SPARROW Model ResultsSPARROW Model Results

Model Results available last spring; Model Results available last spring; provided input to SAB report.provided input to SAB report.

News conference in Washington on News conference in Washington on January 29.January 29.

Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee identified as major contributors to identified as major contributors to Gulf Hypoxia.Gulf Hypoxia.

February 11 ORSBSC February 11 ORSBSC CallCall

SBC recommends co-sponsoring SBC recommends co-sponsoring (with Upper Miss. SBC) technical (with Upper Miss. SBC) technical workshop on SPARROW model workshop on SPARROW model results.results.

SBC recommends sponsoring SBC recommends sponsoring workshop on point source nutrient workshop on point source nutrient removal.removal.

SBC directs staff to investigate SBC directs staff to investigate possible funding opportunity.possible funding opportunity.