Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges

Hussein A. Sayed

Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges The main theme of the session is actually

emphasizing the demographic challenges facing nations and subpopulation as a result of their different level of progress within the demographic transition process.

The same conclusion was also confirmed by the papers presented, although limited to the Australian experience, but it can be also observed at various levels:

* Global / Regional * National * Sub-national

Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges Besides their demographic implications, they will

have clear implications for the measurement of progress, assuming that already have a common consensus of what various stakeholders mean by progress?

The presentations and the position elaborated yesterday showed different views about what is meant by progress for different groups and organs depending on various factors including the level of those concerned, the context and the time factor.

Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges

Major prevailing demographic challenges that need to be elaborated include:

The changing age structure of the population;

Global Ageing; Migration; and, Population characteritics.

Demographic Transition: The Changing Age Structure

Long-term changes in fertility and mortality resulted in fundamental population dynamics that was reflected on the age structure.

The speed and depth of such changes varies, across nations and subpopulations, depending on their place within the demographic transition process.

Such differences can be noticed for different regions and globally, as shown in Table 1, representing the expected average annual growth rates during the period 2005- 2050.

Table (1)Average Annual Rate of Change of the Total Population and the Population in Broad Age Groups, By Major Area, 2005-2050 (Medium Variant)

Major areas0-1415-5960+80+

Total population

 

World0.010.632.393.370.75

More developed regions-0.14-0.381.102.130.05

less developed regions0.030.822.884.190.89

Least developed countries1.022.153.324.031.84

Other Less developed countries-0.290.542.844.210.68

 

Africa0.872.003.123.861.69

Asia-0.290.472.704.040.64

Europe-0.36-0.750.901.98-0.24

Latin America and the Caribbean-0.380.612.983.990.74

North America0.230.371.672.300.62

Oceania0.090.652.112.890.81

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2005)World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations.

Demographic Transition: The Changing Age Structure Significantly low average annual rate of change

for the age group 0-14 years. With the exception of the least developing countries, the rate is very low and even negative for developed regions and parts of the less developed countries. This is mainly the result of continuous low birth rates.

Similar trend is noticed for the age group 15-59 years, although the differences between developed and developing countries is becoming more obvious.

Global Ageing

Population dynamics, accompanied by significant improvements in health and longevity among the elderly are leading to growing percentages of ageing populations and growing rates of old age dependency.

Table 2 show a different pathways to the changes in the age structure, leading to growing old and growing young populations at different parts of the world.

The prevalence of two population models is clearly seen, at the regional level, reflecting the varying impact of population dynamics (fertility and mortality).

The percentage of the population of age 60+ years amounted to 20% in the developed regions compared to only 11% in developing countries.

The trend is expected to continue manifesting in 2050 (32% compared to 20% respectively).

Significant differences are observed across regions, the percentage of population 60 years or over in Africa (2006) amount to 5 % compared to 21% for Europe and 17% for North America, confirming the prevalence of two models at various levels.

Global Ageing

Table (2)Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006

Area or RegionNumber (thousands)

PercentagePercentage

of total population

80 years or over

200620502006205020062050

World687 9231 968 15311221320

More developed regions247 753 400 02920321929

less developed regions440 1701 568 1248201018

Least developed countries 39 593 171 191510710

Africa 48 709192 884510810

Eastern Africa 13 670 55 0155889

Middle Africa 5 125 18 7085678

Northern Africa 13 240 60 646719813

southern Africa 3 7236 943712819

Western Africa12 95151 5725978

Table (2)Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006

Area or RegionNumber (thousands)

PercentagePercentage

of total population

80 years or over

200620502006205020062050

Asia374 8021 231 2379241119

Eastern Asia193 263506 95613321225

South- Central Asia121 964481 018719915

South - eastern Asia45 117174 959823916

western Asia14 45868 304718914

Europe151 841225 37321341828

Eastern Europe53 89377 06518341420

Northern Europe20 51731 91621302129

Southern Europe34 35553 50423391931

Western Europe43 07562 88823342034

Table (2) Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006

Area or RegionNumber (thousands)

PercentagePercentage

of total population

80 years or over

200620502006205020062050

Latin America and the Caribbean50 971188 6529241421

Caribbean4 28911 49711251524

Central America11 38950 7488241320

South America35 293126 4079241422

North America56 866118 11417272128

Oceania4 73311 89314251926

Source:

Population Division of the Department of economic and social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2006)

Global Ageing

The ageing process would continue globally, across regions and countries as can be seen from Table 2.

By 2050, the percentage 60 years and over is to reach 22% and such percentages would be doubled for almost all developing regions, but the gap between developed and developing countries would narrow.

Similar percentage for Europe and North America would reach 34 and 27 % respectively.

Global Ageing: Overall Impact

Successful ageing leading to maximizing desired outcomes, i.e. “ adding life to years, not years to life”.

AS stated by ageing experts, successful ageing is the confluence of three functions:

* Avoidance of disease and disability;

* High cognitive and maintain physical and mental functioning;

* Involvement in society and being active with life.

Global Ageing: Overall Impact

The aspirations of this growing group and their challenges need to reflected in measuring progress.

Various aspects of life for this group include: * Health transition, morbidity and disability; * Marital status changes & intergenerational

relationships; * Family structure and the changing norm of the

nuclear family; * Living arrangements; * Work participation; * Retirement and social security benefits.Table 3 presents some characteristics of this group.

Table (3)Population Ageing characteristic (60 Years or Over) 2006(

Demographic Challenges: Migration

Migration trends, similarly affected the changes in the age structure;

Migration stocks from developing countries might benefit from the better conditions in the receiving countries, but the benefits for the former are affected by many factors;

Managed migration programs are based on circular migration, short-term movements and incentives for return back. This will affect population dynamics in different ways .

A new type of data collection mechanisms are required.

Demographic Challenges: Population Characteristics Human development aspects including

health, education and economic growth; Gender concerns, especially among

ageing population; Special groups needs and absorbing them

within the society ( disability and people with psychological disorder)

Level of HIV/AIDS epidemic and death, especially in some region such as Africa.

Demographic Challenges and Measuring Progress Measurement of progress that takes into

consideration such demographic challenges, would require:

* Identifying the aspirations and desirable outcomes for various groups and locations;

* A combination of aggregate and distributional measures to respond to the needs of various special groups and geographic locations;

* Improving the quality of primary data and widening the scope of measurements to take contextual aspects into consideration.

Demographic Challenges: Data Requirements Providing primary quality data for various defined

administrative level; Collect information to monitor the situation of

subpopulation groups, especially the ageing, to enable countries to develop better policies in that respect(such as the Health & retirement study of the USA) while at the same time develop systems to collect information on children;

Collect development information on international migration, especially that some countries are benefiting from this to help stem the decline of population size and working-age.

Measuring Progress

Measuring progress is a dynamic continuous process that depend on the perception of progress:

GDP considered a measure of progress in goods &services

HDI is mainly concerned with expanding abilities to make informed choices

Progress in that continuum should be concerned with capacity to achieve/realize informed choices.