Gross Domestic Product Growth - Milken Institute€¦ · • grape juice 1 • pears 1 • peanuts 1 • apple juice 2 • italian type cheese 2 • fruit & vegetable juices 3 •

Gross Domestic Product Growth

030095908580

20

15

10

5

0

-5

GDP Growth Rate

Latin America Developed AisaDeveloping Asia Western EuropeChina

Data Source: WB, ADB, IMF, and Bloomberg

GDP Growth in Latin America

0302010099989796959493929190

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

GDP Growth Rate

Argentina BrazilChile ColombiaMexico PeruVenezuela

All countries enjoyed positive growth rate

Data Source: WB, IMF, and Bloomberg

Human Development Indicator

200119951990198519801975

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

HDI

Latin America Developed AsiaDeveloping Asia Western Europe

Data Source: UN

Human Development Indicator

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2001

China India Latin America

Data Source: UN

Income Distribution vs. Income LevelGini Coefficient (Y-axis) vs. GDP per Capita (X-axis)

U.S.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Developed AsiaJapan

Western Europe

Latin America

Developing Asia

China

India

Pakistan

Data Source: WB

Changes in Inequality over the Past two Decades

Data Source: WB

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99

China IndiaLatin America Developed Asia

Gini Coefficient

Income Distribution

Highest 10%Lowest 10%

50

40

30

20

10

0

% of Income

Latin America Developed AsiaDeveloping Asia Western EuropeChina IndiaPakistan JapanU.S.

Data Source: WB

Percentage Share of Consumption the Wealthiest 10%

20

25

30

35

40

45

50B

razi

l

Co

lom

bia

Ch

ile

Me

xic

o

Arg

en

tin

a

Mal

aysi

a

Ve

ne

zue

la

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Pe

ru

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Th

ail

an

d

Ca

mb

od

ia

Ind

ia

Sin

ga

po

re

La

o

US

Ch

ina

Vie

tna

m

Ind

on

esia

Pa

kis

tan

Ko

rea

Ja

pa

n

Data Source: WB and ADB

Proportion of Population under $1 a Day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ind

ia

Lao

Vie

t Nam

Chi

na

Per

u

Ven

ezue

la

Phi

lippi

nes

Co

lom

bia

Pak

ista

n

Bra

zil

Mex

ico

Indo

nesi

a

Ch

ile

Kor

ea

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

land

Data Source: WB & ADB

Share of Merchandise Export

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Latin

Am

eric

a

Chi

na

Indi

a

Japa

n

U.S

.

OthersFuelFoodRaw MaterialsManufactures

Data Source: WB

Scorecard of Economic Reforms in Selected Latin American Countries

0121301Pension reform

0101210Labor reform

0122311FDI liberalization

0232311Trade opening

0222310Financial market

0230320Exchange rate

0111322Tax/budget reform

0233320Public Finance

VenezuelaPeruMexicoColombiaChileBrazilArgentina

Scorecard of Economic Reforms in Selected Latin American Countries (continued)

VenezuelaPeruMexicoColombiaChileBrazilArgentina

0/4515/4521/4514/4543/4518/4511/45Total score

0000310Good institutions

0000310Good laws/courts

0000211Infrastructure

0010300Basic needs

0111310Property rights

0111322Deregulation

0120323Privatization

Personal Computers per 1,000 People

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ind

ia

Dev

elo

pin

gA

sia

Su

b-S

ahar

anA

fric

a Ch

ina

Mid

dle

Eas

t &N

ort

h A

fric

a

Lat

in A

mer

ica

Dev

elo

ped

Asi

a

Jap

an

67.4

Data Source: WB

Latin America’s Financial System

1.154.016.70.7$31.6 trillionBonds Outstanding

2.149.68.11.9$27.8 trillionEquity Market Capitalization

2.015.716.25.3$36.9 trillionBank Assets

5.532.713.63.7$31.1 trillionGDP

6.94.52.120.86.1 billionPopulation

Latin America

United StatesJapanChina

Percent of Total Accounted for by:World Total

Percentage of Total Assets of Three Largest Commercial Banks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

China Latin America Developed Asia Japan U.S.

Data Source: MI

%

Country Risk

50

60

70

80

90

100S

ing

apo

re

Jap

an

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Ko

rea

Mal

aysi

a

Ch

ile

Ch

ina

Th

aila

nd

Mex

ico

Vie

tnam

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Per

u

Ind

ia

Bra

zil

Co

lom

bia

Ind

on

esia

Pak

ista

n

Ven

ezu

ela

Arg

enti

na

Very Low Risk Low Risk High RiskModerate Risk

Data Source: ICRG

Country Risk

50

60

70

80

90

100J

ap

an

De

ve

lop

ed

As

ia Ch

ina

Ind

ia

De

ve

lop

ing

Asia

Lat

inA

me

ric

a

Pa

kis

tan

Low Risk Moderate Risk High RiskVery Low Risk

Data Source: ICRG

ArgentinaArgentinaIN THE PATH TO GROWTHIN THE PATH TO GROWTH

PresentationPresentation byby

JoseJose Octavio BordónOctavio BordónAmbassadorAmbassador ofof thethe ArgentineArgentine RepublicRepublic toto thethe USUS

Los Los AngelesAngeles, , AprilApril 20042004

ARGENTINAARGENTINA

One Country, Many Landscapes

Argentina TodayRecovery started in the second quarter of 2002, and there have been six

consecutive quarters of growth for the first time since 1997

Argentina Today

•Poverty descended from around 55% (May 2003) to 47.8%

•Industrial activity grew 16.2% and construction 37.8% last year

•Inflation was 3.7% in 2003 and currently is 2.4%

Fiscal SectorAs from May 2002, the deficit in fiscal accounts was reversed as a result of

public spending stabilization and increased tax collection

Surplus in the first quarter of 2004: 3,989.3 mill. pesos, three times the amount agreed with the IMF

Financial Sector

Financial Sector

Unemployment

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

May '85

May '86

Apr. '86

May. '8

7

May. '8

8

May. '8

9

May. '9

0

May. '9

1

May. '9

2

May. '9

3

May. '9

4

May. '9

5

May. '9

6

May. '9

7

May. '9

8

May. '9

9

May. '0

0

May. '0

1

May. '0

2

May. '0

3

Unemployment Rate

Argentine Exports by Destination Argentine Exports by Destination 2003 (%)2003 (%)

19

3

14

2012

17

411

MERCOSUR

MIDDLE EAST

NAFTA

EUROPEAN UNION

CHILE

ASEAN, Korea, China,Japan e IndiaREST ALADI

OTHERS

Source: Argentine National Institute of Statistics and CensusSource: Argentine National Institute of Statistics and Census

(19 %)

(3 %)

(14 %)

(20 %)

(12 %)

(17 %)(4 %)

(11 %)

Argentine Exports by Destination 2003Argentine Exports by Destination 2003


100.029,350Total

18.45,401Rest of the World

1.3371Japan

2.8827Middle East

3.81,101ASEAN

3.91,149Andean Community

8.32,443China

11.63,406Chile

10.33,034Of which USA

13.84,046NAFTA

15.74,605Of which Brazil

18.95,551Mercosur

20.05,882European Union

In %Million U$S

Argentine Imports by Origin Argentine Imports by Origin 2003 (%)2003 (%)

37

192

20

13

1 8MERCOSUR

NAFTA

CHILE

EUROPEAN UNION

ASEAN, Korea, China,Japan, India

REST ALADI

OTHERS


(37 %)

(19 %)

(2 %)

(20 %)

(13 %)

(1 %)

(8 %)

Argentine Imports by Origin 2003Argentine Imports by Origin 2003


100.013,813Total

11.61,606Rest of the World

0.451Middle East

0.8108Andean Community

1.9268ASEAN

2.1290Chile

2.9395Japan

5.2720China

16.22,232of which USA

18.52,558NAFTA

19.62,709European Union

34.04,701of which Brazil

37.35,158Mercosur

In %Million U$S

Argentine Exports by type of Goods Argentine Exports by type of Goods 2003 (%)2003 (%)

22

34

26

18PRIMARYPRODUCTS

MANUFACTURES OFAGRICULTURALORIGIN

MANUFACTURES OFINDUSTRIAL ORIGIN

FUELS & ENERGY


(22 %)

(34 %)

(26 %)

(18 %)

Argentine Exports by Category Argentine Exports by Category 2003 (%)2003 (%)

18

454

16

134 CAPITAL GOODS

INTERMEDIATEGOODS

FUELS

PARTS OF CAPITALGOODS

CONSUMER GOODS

VEHICLES


(18 %)

(45 %)

(4 %)

(16 %)

(13 %)

(4 %)

Trade Balance U.S. Trade Balance U.S. –– ArgentinaArgentina

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2000 2001 2002 2003

EXPO IMPO BALANCEUS $ MILLIONSUS $ MILLIONS

Source: U.S. International Trade CommissionSource: U.S. International Trade Commission

U.S. U.S. –– Argentina TradeArgentina TradeImports for Consumption/Domestic Exports - in

millions of dollars -


0,25%0,34%2003

0,28%0,24%2002

In US ImportsIn US Exports

ARGENTINA’s SHARE IN TOTAL US TRADE

13,2-49,2-3,649,2

Total TradeUS DeficitUS ImportsUS Exports

PERCENTAGE CHANGE 2003/2002

5,327- 8633,0952,2322003

4,707-1,7153,2111,4962002

Total TradeUS BalanceUS ImportsUS Exports

U.S. U.S. –– Argentina TradeArgentina Trade- in millions of dollars –


16,2%10,3%2003

19,9%11,2%2002

In Arg. ImportsIn Arg. Exports

US SHARE IN TOTAL ARGENTINE TRADE

13,1-25,924,85,72003/2002

Total TradeArg. SurplusArg. ImportsArg. Exports

PERCENTAGE CHANGE 2003/2002

5,2668022,2323,0342003

4,6571,0811,7882,8692002

Total TradeArg. BalanceArg. ImportsArg. Exports

U.S. Imports from ArgentinaU.S. Imports from Argentina

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2001 2002 2003

AGRICULTURAL NON-AGRICULTURALUS $ MILLIONS

. Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

U.S. Imports from Argentina U.S. Imports from Argentina MAIN CHAPTERS (HTS)MAIN CHAPTERS (HTS)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

2003

87-Vehicles and parts

44-Wood/Charcoal

03-Fish/Crustaceans

29-Organic Chemicals

94-Furniture

72-Iron and Steel

20-Vegetable/Fruit Prep.

76-Aluminum

41-Raw Hides/Skins

27-Petroleum Oils/Residues

US $US $ MILLIONSMILLIONS

Source: U.S. International TradeSource: U.S. International Trade CommissionCommission

U.S. Exports to ArgentinaU.S. Exports to ArgentinaMAIN CHAPTERS (HTS)MAIN CHAPTERS (HTS)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

2003

30-Pharmaceutical Prod.

98-Special Clasif.

38-Misc. chemical prod.

31-Fertilizers

87-Vehicles and parts

90-Optical, Photo aparatus

39-Plastics

85-Electric Machinery

29-Organic Chemicals

84-Machinery/Mec.Appliances

US $ MILLIONSUS $ MILLIONS


Argentina’s Active Role in Argentina’s Active Role in Trade Trade NegociationsNegociations

• Multilateral: World Trade Organization (WTO)

• Hemispheric: FTAA

• Regional: MERCOSUR- Intra-Mercosur (economic integration: not only

trade)- Mercosur trade negotiations with trading partners

• Bilateral: - US-Argentina Trade & Investment Council has

become a very useful tool to address bilateral issues.

Argentina’s Export OfferArgentina’s Export Offer

• World known for agricultural and food products,both conventional and organic.

• Other agricultural and industrial manufactures,well known among traditional customers, haveregained competitiveness and show increasing

demand based on excellent price/quality ratio.

• Over 82% of Argentina exports to US are non-ag.

Argentina’s Ranking as U.S. Supplier of Food Products

PRODUCT WORLD RANKING

• GRAPE JUICE 1• PEARS 1• PEANUTS 1• APPLE JUICE 2• ITALIAN TYPE CHEESE 2• FRUIT & VEGETABLE JUICES 3• RED MEATS, PREPARED/PRESERVED 3• TEA 4• TOBACCO 4 • ESSENTIAL OILS 5• CANDIES 5

ARGENTINA IS ALSO AMONG THE 10 WORLD U.S. SUPPLIERS OF:

• FISH; HONEY; CANE SUGAR; FRESH VEGETABLES; WINE AND BEER; WOOD PRODUCTS; SHRIMPS AND PLANTING SEEDS

Argentina is Among the Top Ten World Producers of Major CommoditiesCOMMODITY EXPORTS ARGENTINA’S WORLD RANK

WHEAT 10COARSEGRAINS 7SOYBEANS 3SOYMEAL 3SOYOIL 3SUNFLOWER SEED 2BEEF 4

SourceSource: : EconomicEconomic ResearchResearch ServiceService, USDA., USDA.

Argentine Educated Work Force

• Qualified human resources based on high education level and availability of latest infrastructure and technology result in Argentine exports of value added products and services.

• Design, IT products and services, Educational services, Biotechnology, etc.

Argentina in the Knowledge Era

• Systemic competitiveness.• Holistic but at the same time specific

vision.• Moral but pragmatic attitude.• Better skills than tools.• More behavior than skills.

Final Comments

• Main risk of the Globalization process: inequality

• Approach to Globalization must be done from the point of view of the human being

• Values: freedom, peace, democracy, human rigths, environment andcapitalism with social justice

• From politics: multilateralism, openregionalism and responsible leadership

President KirchnerAdministration Commitment

1. Institutional quality2. Good administration3. Officialism with institutional leadership

and without hegemony

In Brief

A new leadership for a new era.

WE HAVE A CHALLENGE AND A SOCIAL, FISCAL AND

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSIBILITY IN A NON CONFLICT SCENARIO

EMBASSY OF ARGENTINAEMBASSY OF ARGENTINAWashington D.C.Washington D.C.

Documents

Gross Domestic Product Growth - Milken Institute€¦ · • grape juice 1 • pears 1 • peanuts 1 • apple juice 2 • italian type cheese 2 • fruit & vegetable juices 3 •