Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Communities: Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Response to Adaptation Strategies

CCAF Wetlands StudyInvestigators:Susan Doka Fisheries & Oceans, Great Lakes Lab for Fisheries &

Aquatic Sciences, Burlington, ON

Joel Ingram Environment Canada, Canadian Wildlife Service, Downsview, ON

Linda Mortsch Environment Canada & University of Waterloo, Atmospheric Impacts Research Group, Waterloo, ON

Partners:Nick Mandrak DFO, Burlington, ONIJC Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence Study Partners

Temperature & Water Level Predictions

Habitat Mapping& Modelling

Fish & Bird Habitat Supply & Effects

Water Level Regulation

CCAF Fish Community Project Overview

Marsh Dyking& Barriers

Evaluation ObjectivesEvaluate the effects on coastal wetlands of modifications to water regulation on Lake Ontario as an adaptation strategy

Evaluate the effects of wetland dyking on Lakes the lower Great Lakes as an adaptation strategy

Adaptation StrategiesClimate Change EffectsAssessment Objectives

To assess the vulnerability of Great Lakes coastal wetlands to water level fluctuations due to climatic change

To assess vulnerability of wetland fish & bird communities to projected vegetation, thermal & water level changes in the lower Great Lakes

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21

Fish CommunityResponseto Climate Change

& Adaptation Strategies

Wetland Elevation &

Habitat Models

Climate Change

Scenarios &

Temperatures

Current Fish CommunitySurveys in selected wetlands

Models of Fish & Fish Habitat Response to

Hydrologic & Thermal Change

Literature Review & Previous Modelling

+

Vegetation Community

Models

+

Future Fish CommunityPredicted invaders

CCAF Fish Sub-Project Overview

Wetland Elevation & Habitat Models

CCAF Habitat Field Surveys Dyked/Closed - Open Wetland Comparisons

CWS SurveysEmergent Vegetation

Hi-Res ElevationsWater Level Loggers

Bird Community

DFO SurveysSubmergent Vegetation

Substrate TypeWater Depth

Temperature LoggersPhysicochemical Variables

Fish Community

Habitat Assessment includes: existing GIS layers, air photo interpretation, satellite imagery, field data (long-term point and sporadic spatial)

CCAF Wetland Locations

Fish & Habitat Sampling Sites: Mitchell’s Bay, St. Clair NWA, Canard River, Holiday Beach, Point Pelee, Hillman Marsh, Big Creek NWA, Inner Bay Long Point,Jordan Station, Martindale Pond, Parrott’s Bay, Amherst Island

Additional Habitat Sampling Sites: Eastern Lake St. ClairRondeau HarbourInner Bay, Long Point

CCAF Fish Modelling Sites: Rondeau, Long Point, Presqu’ile, Bay of Quinte, etc.

Huron-Erie Corridor Wetland Locations

Mitchell’s Bay + Adjacent Site

St Clair National Wildlife Area

Hillman Marsh

Point Pelee

Canard River

Holiday Beach

Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation for Assessing Fish Habitat

Mitchell’s Bay (open wetland)

Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation Lake St. Clair

St. Clair National Wildlife Area (dyked)

Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation Detroit River-Erie

Canard River (open wetland) Holiday Beach (dyked wetland)

Hillman Marsh (open wetland) Point Pelee (closed wetland)

Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation Western Lake Erie

Temporal Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation for Assessing Fish Habitat Availability (Merged with IR Imagery of Emergent Vegetation)

Spring and Fall Submergent Vegetation

Parrott’s Bay, Lake Ontario

Lake St. Clair Wetland Temperatures

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

28-Jun 18-Jul 7-Aug 27-Aug 16-Sep 6-Oct 26-Oct 15-Nov

Open (Mitchell’s Bay)

Dyked (St. Clair NWA)

2003

Tem

pera

ture

(oC

)

02468101214161820

Spec

ies

Ric

hnes

s

0246810121416

Lake St. Clair

Detroit River

West Erie

East Erie

WestOntario

East Ontario

02468

1012141618

02468101214161820

Barrier OpenElectrofishing HoopnettingS

um

mer

Fall

Lake St. Clair

Detroit River

West Erie

East Erie

WestOntario

East Ontario

bowfin, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, white bass

white sucker, banded killifish, brook silverside, greater redhorse, shorthead redhorse, round goby, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch, logperch

WarmCool

longnose gar, northern pike, spotted gar, walleye

chinook salmon, brown trout

Piscivore(P)

rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, goldfish, spotfin shiner, common carp, gizzard shad, channel catfish, bigmouth buffalo, green sunfish, pumpkinseed, warmouth, orangespotted sunfish, bluegill, pugnose minnow, white perch,mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, white crappie, bluntnose minnow, fathead minnow, black crappie, central mudminnow

troutperchNon-Piscivore(N)

Cold

Wetland polygons or grids(define emergent vegetation)

Fish Habitat Layers – Presqu’ile Bay, Lake Ontario

Submergent Vegetation(habitat surveys or models; not shown)

Elevation (80-52m)

Substrate Type(habitat surveys or assigned by shoreline characteristics)

Wetland/Veg

Substrate

Depth/Elevation

Buffer shoreline types to depth contour

Map habitat combinations

Model suitabilities for different life stages, species & guilds

Habitat Suitability Modelling

Temperature

Lake Ontario Simulated Historical Water Levels

73.5

74.0

74.5

75.0

75.5

76.0

76.5

YEAR

Wat

er L

evel

(m A

SL IG

LD85

)

Unregulated Regulated Climate Change

1900 200019501910 1920 1930 1940 1960 1970 1980 1990

Presqu’ile Bay – Lake Ontario North Shore

1986 Pike YOY Suitability CC 1986 Pike YOY Suitability

Low Med High

Presqu’ile Bay – Lake Ontario North Shore

1999 Pike YOY Suitability CC 1999 Pike YOY Suitability

Low Med High

Framework for Huron-Erie Corridor

1. Current habitat information needed at the correct resolution, especially bathymetry/elevation and turbidity, if possible

2. Habitat supply models needed to assess fish community effects due to multiple stressors

3. Must be life stage based assessment, which requires knowledge of habitat requirements

4. Evaluate the habitat supply of potential future fish community based on invasion due to climate change.

Acknowledgements

GIS Support: Carolyn Bakelaar, Charlene Rae

Field & Lab Support:Lynn Bouvier, Jason Barnucz, Matt Stuart, Kathy Seifried, Cindy Chu, Kris VandeSompel

Modelling SupportJim Moore, JEMSysCharles K. Minns, DFO