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8/8/2019 Graying of the North State - Final
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The Graying of theNorthstate
November 10, 2010
The Center for Economic Development
California State University, Chico
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North State
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Northstate as a Region
Isolated communities
Declining Industries
Resource Dependant
Economies Declining populations
Incredible Natural Beauty
Housing costs lower than state
averages
No Congestion
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1 - Exporting our Youth:
High School GraduatesLeave the Area
Options:
Comm. College (local) University (local)
Job (local)
University (outside) -
Job (outside the area)
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Hollowing Out the Middle
The Achievers
The Stayers
The Seekers
The Returners
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2 - Few College Graduates Returnto the Northstate
Lack of Job Opport. (in theirparticular field)
Higher Salary OptionsElsewhere
Desire to Gain ExperienceBefore Returning Home
Difficulty in finding Spousea Job
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3 - Low North State Fertility Rates
Death Rates exceed Birth Rates in most
North State communities.
In-migration of young families might stem
this natural population decrease.
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4 - Attraction of Retirees toNorthstate
High Quality of Life
Low Cost of Housing
Lack of Congestion Scenic Beauty
Cultural Arts
Health Care Options(Redding/Chico)
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5 - Increasing Longevity Life Expectancy at Birth
2530
3538
47
75
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1000 1200 1400 1800 1900 1990 2050
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Californias Baby Boom
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Under
5
5TO
9
10TO
14
15TO
19
20TO
24
25TO
29
30TO
34
35TO
39
40TO
44
45TO
49
50TO
54
55TO
59
60TO
64
65TO
69
70TO
74
75TO
79
80TO
84
85
AND
OVER
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Population 65 and over
15.8% 14.2%
10.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Butte Co. 20 Counties California
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Northstate Age Distribution
0
20
40
60
80
100
120140
160
cc
5TO
9
10TO
14
15TO
19
20TO
24
25TO
29
30TO
34
35TO
39
40TO
44
45TO
49
50TO
54
55TO
59
60TO
64
65TO
69
70TO
74
75TO
79
80TO
84
85AND
OVER
1970
19801990
2000
2010
2020
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Tehama County AgeDistribution - 1970-2020
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Und
er5
5to
9
10to
14
15to
19
20to
24
25to
29
30to
34
35to
39
40to
44
45to
49
50to
54
55to
59
60to
64
65to
69
70to
74
75to
79
80to
84
85and
ove
r
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
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Median Age, 1995
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Population 65 and Over
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
SF Metro LA Metro California 12-County
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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Projected Growth, 85 and Over
Population Percent Change, 2000-2030
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
SF
Metro
LA
Metro
California
12-County
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Greater % Living in Poverty
Percent of the Population 65+ Between 100 and 150%Poverty
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
SF
Metro
LA
Metro
California
USA
12-
County
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Challenges for the NorthstateMedical Care
Maintaining Quality of Life
Recreation
Housing Transportation
Costs
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Insufficient Retirement Savings
7.2
18
30
05
10
15
20
25
30
1900 1990 2040
Years Spent in Retirement
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Baby Boomers Saving Less &Less
9.4
54
0
2
4
6
8
10
1973 1983 1993
U.S. Savings Rate
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Nursing Shortage
California Ranks50th in Nation
More NorthstateNurses Retiring(tied to older pop.)
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Seismic Retrofitting of Hospitals
SB 1954
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Longer Lives
Increased Demand
for MedicalServices
Increased Demand
for In-home Care
Children will Spendmore Time Caring
for Parents
Women will be hitparticularly hard
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By 2040, Oldest Old in U.S. will
Out-Number Preschool Children
17.219.6
25.0
3.7
8.1
26.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1995 2040
Under 580 and over
Million
s
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What Worries Retirees
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Having Enough Money
Maintaining Health
Being Productive
Maintaining Relationships
Staying Health
Being Able to Go Back to Work
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When will the Iceberg Hit
1990
19952000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Italy Japan Germany UK France Canada US
Year When 65+ = 18% of Population