Gray Wolf Range Analysis: Michigan and Wisconsin

Masters Project Presentation

November 8, 2002

Damon Hearne, Karen Lewis, Marisa Martin, Beth Mitton,

Carly Rocklen

Background

• Gray wolf federally listed as Endangered in 1974• Down-listing to Threatened

underway• Complete delisting imminent

Client: National Wildlife Federation Great Lakes Field Office, Ann Arbor

Advisors: Steve Yaffee and Bobbi Low

Is additional long-term wolf range protection necessary if permanent recovery is to be successful?

Historic1974Current

Wolves are top carnivores without specific habitat requirements.

Population Status

• Michigan: ~280/200 (5 years)• Wisconsin: ~300/250 (1 year)

Range: Regionally specific areas of land that can function as gray wolf territory

Should not be confused with distribution:

Applied Definitions

Spatial Analysis Model

Project Overview

Sufficient range conserved

Insufficient range conserved

Question: How can range for a long-term viable wolf

population be ensured?

Recommendations

Future studies show insufficient range

Is additional long-term wolf range protection necessary if permanent recovery is to be successful?

Spatial Analysis Model Components

Goal: To predict future wolf range and population size.

Establish Factors Affecting Conversion of range (FACs)

Use FACs to predict Probability Of Conversion (POC)

Determine number of wolf packs supported

Suitability filter

Phase A

Phase B

Primary Factors Affecting

Conversion (FAC)

Stability

Conversion Rate in Region

Nat Park =-2

Private = 2

Low = - 2

High = 2

Zoned for Development No = - 2

Yes = 2

Physiography conducive to conversion No = - 2

Yes = 2

Urban pixel filter

Probability of Conversion

(POC)

( -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 )

Spatial Analysis

Phase A

Weighting

AgricultureRevert =-2

Develop = 2

• Ownership

• Legal protection

• Federal—Forest Legacy Program

• State—conservation easements; forest tax incentives

Factor Affecting Conversion:

Stability as Undeveloped

• Land Use Change Analysis

• LUDA 1980

• NLCD 1992

• Regional Planner Predictions

• Population Change

Development Attractors Urban Center Lake Highway/major roads

Factor Affecting Conversion:

Growth Rate in Region

Factor Affecting Conversion:

Agricultural Reversion

• Occurs at varying rates depending on economic status and primary land use of county

• Land use change

• Difficult to build into current model because it is reverse conversion

• Home rule—land use planning at the lowest level of government in Wisconsin and Michigan

• Town comprehensive plans—Smart Growth (Wisconsin)

• Buildout analysis

Factor Affecting Conversion:

Zoning

Factor Affecting Conversion:

Physiography Conducive to Conversion

• Presence of wetland • Federal, state and local protection

• Wetlands as building sites

• Soils – percolation test

Overlay FAC Layers

Sum values across layers using

weighting and BOOLEAN operations

Each pixel has Probability of Conversion #

Spatial Analysis

Phase B

County- wide

zoning = #Federal Lands

= #

High conversion

rate = #

Low POC

High POC

Medium POC

Spatial Analysis

Spatial Analysis - Suitability Filter

Suitable range area

# potential territories supported in future

Viability proxies:

Road Density and others

Results from POC phase

High POC filter

Road Density

Proxy for wolf-human interactions• Frequency of interactions• Outcome of interactions

Used to determine areas suitable for wolves (~ <.5km/km2)

Improved human attitudes towards wolves

may allow survival in areas of higher road

density

Spatial Analysis - Suitability Filter

Suitable range area

# potential territories supported in future

Viability proxies:

Road Density and others

Results from POC phase

High POC filter

Number of potential territories (= packs) supported by Suitable

Range Area

Number of Wolves Supported by Suitable Range Area

Determine average territory size given prey density

Number of wolves supported by Suitable Range Area

Viable Population

Yes No

Less Pressure 

Less Conversion of Land

More Pressure 

More Conversion of Land 

Secondary Drivers

Economic Pressures

-Prey Base-Human attitudes/road density

Suitability

Multiple Scenarios of Model

Establish Factors Affecting Conversion of

range (FACs)

POC Assigned

# Wolves

Suitability filter

POC Assigned

Suitability filter

POC Assigned

Suitability filter

Secondary Drivers of Conversion Multiple scenarios

# Wolves

# Wolves

# Wolves

# Wolves

Spatial Analysis Model

Sufficient range conserved for long

term wolf pop

Insufficient range conserved for long

term wolf pop

Question: How can range for a viable wolf population

be ensured?

Recommendations

Future studies show insufficient range

Project Overview

• Legal– ESA litigation– State statutes

• Policy– Access of federal, state and county

lands– Zoning changes– Forest Legacy and Smart Growth in

Michigan

Recommendations – Legal and Policy

Legal and policy avenues may lead to protection of wolves

and wolf habitat.

Recommendations – Education

• Barriers to information distribution

• Education programs

• Target audiences

Public education regarding wolves leads to greater tolerance of wolves, and thus to higher cultural carrying

capacities for the land.

Recommendations – Land Conservation

• Type & quantity of land to conserve

• Tools for protection

• Integration of land conservation and land use planning

• Major players/stakeholders

Conserved undeveloped lands provide areas of relatively low probability of

wolf-human conflict.

Spatial Analysis Model

Sufficient range conserved

Insufficient range conserved

Question: How can range for a viable wolf population

be ensured?

Recommendations

Future studies show insufficient range

Project Overview

Thank you very much

PRELIMINARY MAP

PRELIMINARY MAP