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SYNOPSIS

Grasim Industries Limited, a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, ranks among India's largest private sector companies, with consolidated net revenue of Rs.202 billion.

The Company core businesses are VSF and cement, which contribute to over 90 per cent of its revenues and operating profits.

Grasim has grown to become a leading cement player in India.

Grasim, with an aggregate capacity of 333,975 tpa has a global market share of 10 per cent. It is also the second largest producer of caustic soda (which is used in the production of VSF) in India.

Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% and 5% over 2010 to 2013E respectively.

Years Net sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS P/E

FY 11 215851.80 53967.40 28951.90 248.47 9.86

FY 12E 261180.68 64379.90 34422.41 297.42 8.24

FY 13E 292522.36 72306.62 39426.85 343.81 7.13

Stock Data:

Sector: Diversified

Face Value Rs. Rs.10.00

52 wk. High/Low (Rs.) 2625.00/1981.20

Volume (2 wk. Avg.) 9753.00

BSE Code 500300

Market Cap (Rs.In mn) 227016.6

Share Holding Pattern

1 Year Comparative Graph

Grasim Industries Ltd BSE SENSEX

C.M.P : Rs.2470.00 Target Price : Rs.2789.00 Date : 13th Jan 2012 BUY

GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTD

Result Update: Q2 FY 12

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Peer Group Comparison

Name of the company CMP(Rs.) Market

Cap.(Rs.Mn.) EPS(Rs.) P/E(x) P/Bv(x) Dividend (%)

Grasim Indus 2470.00 227016.6 248.47 9.86 1.55 200.00

Reliance Industries 736.45 2408486.7 66.81 11.01 1.65 80.00

L&T Limited 1131.10 690031.4 66.62 16.95 3.22 725.00

Century Textiles 233.65 21740.1 6.74 34.67 1.12 55.00

Investment Highlights

Q2 FY12 Results Update

Grasim Industries Ltd disclosed results for the quarter ended Sep 2011. Net sales

for the quarter moved up 28% to Rs.57741.30 million as compared to

Rs.45034.30 million during the corresponding quarter last year. During the

quarter, the company has reported Net Profit increased to Rs.4179.40 million

from Rs.3233.60 million in previous year same quarter. The Basic EPS of the

company stood at Rs.45.57 for the quarter ended Sep 2011.

Quarterly Results - Consolidate (Rs in mn)

As At Sep-11 Sep-10 %change

Net sales 57741.30 45034.30 28

Net Profit 4179.40 3233.60 29

Basic EPS 45.57 35.26 29

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Basic EPS of the company stood at Rs.45.57

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Break up of Expenditure

Expenditure for the quarter stood at Rs.47463.60mn, which is around 27.66%

higher than the corresponding period of the previous year. Raw Material

Consumed cost of the company for the quarter accounts for 23% of the sales of

the company and stood at Rs.13139.00mn from Rs.9525.80mn of the

corresponding period of the previous year. Power & Fuel cost increased 26%YoY

to Rs.12408.1mn from Rs.9813.40mn and accounts for 21% of the revenue of the

company for the quarter.

OPM and NPM for the quarter stood at 20% and 9% respectively from 20% and 8%

respectively of the same period of the last year.

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Allotment of Shares

Grasim Industries Ltd has allotted 1,740 (One Thousand Seven Hundred Forty)

Equity Shares under the Company’s Employee Stock Option Scheme, 2006. On

allotment, the equity share capital of the Company stands increased to

9,17,09,072 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each aggregating to Rs. 91,70,90,720.

Dividend Declaration

Grasim Industries Ltd has recommended declaration of Dividend on equity

shares @ Rs. 20 per equity share for the year ended March 31, 2011.

Company Profile

Grasim Industries Limited, a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, ranks

among India's largest private sector companies, with consolidated net revenue of

Rs.202 billion.

Starting as a textiles manufacturer in 1948, today Grasim's businesses comprise

viscose staple fibre (VSF), cement, chemicals and textiles. Its core businesses are VSF

and cement, which contribute to over 90 per cent of its revenues and operating profits.

The Aditya Birla Group is the world’s largest producer of VSF, commanding a 21 per

cent global market share. Grasim, with an aggregate capacity of 333,975 tpa has a

global market share of 10 per cent. It is also the second largest producer of caustic

soda (which is used in the production of VSF) in India.

In cement, Grasim through its subsidiary UltraTech Cement Limited ("UltraTech") has

a capacity of 52 million tpa and is a leading player in India. In July 2004, Grasim

acquired a majority stake and management control in UltraTech. One of the largest of

its kind in the cement sector, this acquisition catapulted the Aditya Birla Group to the

top of the league in India.

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The amalgamation of Samruddhi Cement Limited (SCL) with UltraTech w.e.f. 1 July

2010 completed the restructuring of the cement business. Earlier, Grasim's cement

business was demerged into SCL. The merger has created the largest cement company

in India, providing a platform that will help in pursuing aggressive growth going

forward.

Businesses

Viscose Staple Fibre

Grasim is India's pioneer in Viscose Staple Fibre (VSF), a man-made, biodegradable

fibre with characteristics akin to cotton. As an extremely versatile and easily blendable

fibre, VSF is widely used in apparels, home textiles, dress material, knitted wear and

non-woven applications.

Grasim's VSF plants are located at Nagda in Madhya Pradesh, Kharach in Gujarat and

Harihar in Karnataka, with an aggregate capacity of 333,975 tpa.

Cement

Grasim ventured into cement production in the mid 1980s, setting up its first cement

plant at Jawad in Madhya Pradesh and since then it has grown to become a leading

cement player in India.

Grasim’s cement operations through its subsidiary UltraTech, span the length and

breadth of India, with 11 composite plants, 11split grinding units, five bulk terminals

and 74 ready-mix concrete plants. All the plants are located close to sizeable limestone

mines and are fully automated to ensure consistent quality. All units use state-of-the-

art equipment and technology and are certified with ISO 9001 for quality systems and

ISO 14001 for environment management systems.

Chemicals

Rayon grade caustic soda is an important raw material in VSF production. To achieve

reliable and economical supply of this chemical, Grasim set up a rayon grade caustic

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soda unit at Nagda in 1972 with an initial capacity of 33,000 tpa. This has since

grown to 258,000 tpa, making it the country’s second largest caustic soda unit.

Textiles

Grasim has a strong presence in fabrics and synthetic yarns, through its

subsidiary, Grasim Bhiwani Textiles Limited (GBTL) is well known for its branded

suitings, Grasim and Graviera, mainly in the polyester – cellulosic branded menswear.

GBTL's plant is located at Bhiwani (Haryana).

Joint Ventures

AV Cell Inc. and AV Nackawic Inc. in Canada

AV Cell and AV Nackawic supply dissolving grade pulp to the Group’s VSF units in

India, Thailand and Indonesia.

Birla Lao Pulp & Plantation Limited in Laos

To further strengthen the backward integration in pulp, Birla Lao has been formed as

a JV with other associate companies for raising captive plantations at Laos. This will

provide a low cost source for wood to meet future requirements of a green field pulp

plant in due course of time.

Birla Jingwei Fibres Company Limited in China

The company originally promoted as a joint venture with Fujian Jingwei Group in

2006 for manufacturing VSF is now a 100 per cent Aditya Birla Group company.

Currently, this plant has the capacity to produce 70,000 tpa of VSF.

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Financial Results

12 Months Ended Profit & Loss Account (Consolidate)

Value(Rs.in million) FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E

12m 12m 12m 12m

Description

Net Sales 201953.90 215851.80 261180.68 292522.36

Other Income 2735.60 3973.50 4569.53 5026.48

Total Income 204689.50 219825.30 265750.20 297548.84

Expenditure -141466.80 -165857.90 -201370.30 -225242.22

Operating Profit 63222.70 53967.40 64379.90 72306.62

Interest -3345.50 -4055.70 -4058.58 -4306.37

Gross Profit 59877.20 49911.70 60321.32 68000.26

Depreciation -9947.10 -11383.70 -11839.05 -12312.61

Profit before Tax 49930.10 38528.00 48482.27 55687.65

Tax -15704.80 -9576.10 -14059.86 -16260.79

Profit after Tax 34225.30 28951.90 34422.41 39426.85

Extraordinary Items 3360.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

Minority Interest -7141.20 -6599.60 -7589.54 -8348.49

Share of Profit & Loss Asso

510.50 437.80 446.56 455.49

Net profit 30955.30 22790.10 27279.43 31533.85

Equity Capital 917.00 917.20 917.20 917.20

Reserves 123826.6 144291.9 178714.31 218141.17

Face Value(Rs.) 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Total No. of Shares 91.70 91.72 91.72 91.72

EPS 337.57 248.47 297.42 343.81

*A=Actual, *E=Estimated

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Quarterly Ended Profit & Loss Account (Consolidate)

Value(Rs.in million) 30-Mar-11 30-Jun-11 30-Sep-11 31-Dec-11

3m(A) 3m(A) 3m(A) 3m(E)

Description

Net Sales 65020.40 59365.40 57741.30 66402.50

Other Income 1325.00 1085.30 1068.10 961.29

Total Income 66345.40 60450.70 58809.40 67363.79

Expenditure -48523.80 -42966.90 -47463.60 -52524.37

Operating Profit 17821.60 17483.80 11345.80 14839.41

Interest -1081.40 -941.50 -893.90 -983.29

Gross Profit 16740.20 16542.30 10451.90 13856.12

Depreciation -2993.10 -2814.70 -2837.30 -3064.28

Profit before Tax 13747.10 13727.60 7614.60 10791.84

Tax -2266.50 -3725.50 -2373.50 -3345.47

Profit after Tax 11480.60 10002.10 5241.10 7446.37

Minority Interest -2816.30 -2,626.80 -1,021.00 -1123.10

Share of Profit & Loss Asso

124.00 141.40 -40.70 129.74

Net Profit 8788.30 7,516.70 4,179.40 6453.01

Equity Capital 917.20 917.20 917.20 917.20

Face Value(Rs.) 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Total No. of Shares 91.72 91.72 91.72 91.72

EPS 95.82 81.95 45.57 70.36

*A=Actual, *E=Estimated

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Key Ratio

Particulars FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

EPS (Rs.) 337.57 248.47 297.42 343.81

EBITDA Margin (%) 31.31% 25.00% 24.65% 24.72%

PAT Margin (%) 16.95% 13.41% 13.18% 13.48%

P/E Ratio (x) 7.23 9.86 8.24 7.13

ROE (%) 27.44% 19.94% 19.16% 18.00%

ROCE (%) 39.43% 27.77% 27.92% 26.31%

EV/EBITDA (x) 3.54 4.16 3.49 3.11

Debt-Equity Ratio 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04

Book Value (Rs.) 1360.34 1583.18 1958.48 2388.34

P/BV 1.79 1.55 1.25 1.03

Charts:

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Outlook and Conclusion

At the current market price of Rs.2470.00, the stock is trading at 8.24 x FY12E and 7.13 x FY13E respectively.

Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 1.25 x and 1.03 x respectively for FY12E and FY13E.

Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY12E and FY13E is seen at Rs.297.42 and Rs.343.81 respectively.

The Company core businesses are VSF and cement, which contribute to over 90 per cent of its revenues and operating profits.

Grasim has grown to become a leading cement player in India.

Grasim, with an aggregate capacity of 333,975 tpa has a global market share of 10 per cent. It is also the second largest producer of caustic soda (which is used in the production of VSF) in India.

Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% and 5% over 2010 to 2013E respectively.

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On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 3.49 x for FY12E and 3.11 x for FY13E.

We expect that the company will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.2789.00 for Medium to Long term investment.

Industry Overview

Textile industry

The textiles industry in India enjoys a distinctive position due to the pivotal role it

plays by way of contribution to industrial output, employment generation (second

largest after agriculture) and export earnings of the country. The industry is rich and

varied, embracing the hand-spun and hand-woven sector at one end and the capital

intensive, sophisticated mill sector at the other. Its association with the ancient

culture and tradition of the country lends it a unique advantage in comparison with

textiles industry of other countries, thus giving it an uncommon edge to cater to a vast

variety of products and market segments both domestically, as well as, globally.

According to Mr Anand Sharma, Union Minister of Commerce, Industry & Textiles,

“The Indian textile industry is a key pillar of Indian manufacturing, contributing to

14% of industrial production and over 10% of Indian exports. More significantly, the

industry is the second largest employment generator next only to Agriculture engaging

35 million people across various segments in the entire value chain”.

Industry sub-sectors

The textile industry comprises the following:

• Organised Cotton/Man-Made Fibre Textiles Mill Industry

• Man-Made Fibre / Filament Yarn Industry

• Wool and Woollen Textiles Industry

• Sericulture and Silk Textiles Industry

• Handlooms, Handicrafts, the Jute and Jute Textiles Industry

• Textiles Exports

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Market size

The Vision Statement for the textiles industry for the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12)

sees India securing a 7 per cent share in the global textiles trade by 2012. At current

prices, the Indian textiles industry is valued at US$ 55 billion, 64 per cent of which

caters to domestic demand.

Total textile exports during April-March 2010-11 stood at US$ 12.5 billion as against

US$ 11.3 billion during the corresponding period of the previous year, according to the

latest data released by DGCI&S, Kolkata.

Technical Textile Segment

The technical textiles segment is expected to grow by 11 per cent per annum till 2012-

13 and is likely to grow at 6-8 per cent per annum till 2020 without any policy

interventions. If the government intervenes by way of regulatory push, the growth of

technical textiles industry can be estimated at 12-15 per cent per annum till 2020,

according to Rita Menon, Secretary, Union Ministry of Textiles. She added that the

technical textiles segment in India has the potential to attract investment and create

additional employment opportunities in coming years. She further said that

investments of US$ 1.1 billion are expected by 2012 and employment is expected to

increase to 1.2 million by 2012.

Government Initiatives

Government in the 11th Five Year Plan has restructured the Technology Upgradation

Funds Scheme (TUFs), the Scheme for Integrated Textiles Park (SITP) and formulated

the National Fiber Policy. Government has enhanced allocation under restructured

TUFs from US$ 1.5 billion to US$ 3.0 billion to catalyze investments in hitherto low

investment areas like processing, weaving, knitting, technical textiles and skill

centres. Under the SITP scheme, US$ 78.5 million allocation was made for sanction of

new Integrated Textiles Parks. The National Fiber Policy has been formulated as a fiber

neutral policy in a decadal perspective to attract to US$ 33.3 billion of investment in

the next decade.

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Integrated Skill Development Scheme - The Government launched the Integrated Skill

Development Scheme for the T&C Sector, including Jute & Handicrafts, in September

2010. The main objective of the scheme is to address the trained manpower needs of

textiles and related segments. The Scheme would target to train approximately

2,56,000 persons during 2010-11 and 2011-12.

India has the most liberal and transparent policies in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

amongst emerging countries. Under the automatic route, 100 per cent FDI is allowed

in the textile sector. FDI in sectors to the extent permitted under automatic route does

not require any prior approval either by the Government of India or Reserve Bank of

India (RBI).

The government has proposed some more relaxations for the branded garments sector,

besides enhancement of duty abatement from 40 per cent to 55 per cent.

Investment trends

India’s liberalisation of its foreign investment regulations, buoyant domestic demand

for textiles, and strong export potential have led to growing foreign investment in the

country. The country has become one of the fastest growing destinations for FDI

inflows and collaboration. India’s Special Economic Zones (SEZs) attract foreign

investment by providing tax incentives, assistance with bureaucratic and

administrative problems, and access to reliable infrastructure.

Foreign companies have been motivated to enter into collaborations with Indian firms

by the increasing profits gains that can be made by producing brands in India and

selling them into the Indian market. Indian companies, on the other hand, have been

motivated by the scope for gaining technical and marketing expertise from foreign

partners.

The textiles industry has attracted FDI worth US$ 1,011.52 million between April

2000 and September 2011, according to data released by the Department of Industrial

Policy and Promotion (DIPP).

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In last two years, the Rs 650 crore (US$ 143.72 million) garment e-tailing business

has attracted investments worth US$ 70 million. The segment is expected to grow

almost ten-fold to nearly Rs 6,000 crore (US$ 1.33 billion) by 2015, as per a study by

management consultants Technopak Advisors.

Ahmedabad-based textile company Arvind Ltd. has tied up with another major

international brand, Geoffrey Beene, LLC for apparel and non-apparel products.

Geoffrey Beene has licensed Arvind Retail Ltd. to manufacture and market its men's

apparel and non-apparel products

The Road Ahead

India's T&C industry has great potential, and is one of the mainstays of the country’s

economy. The industry has enormous opportunities for domestic as well as

international investors given its consistent growth performance, abundant cheap

skilled manpower and growing domestic demand. With the abolition of quotas, India

has surged ahead of other countries and positioned itself as a value-added

manufacturer with a varied material base, an educated and English-speaking class of

executives with high product development and design orientation.

On the global front, India is set to become an even bigger participant, both as a

consumer and as a producer. The country offers an attractive combination of a large

domestic market, and a base for low cost production. The industry has gained a strong

position in cotton based products, especially in the readymade garments and home

furnishings segment, which are expected to be the key drivers of growth for the

industry.

Besides this, the T&C industry is contributing towards promoting inclusive growth. It

has been contributing to broad based socio-economic development by providing

employment opportunities at local level.

The government envisions building state-of-the-art production capacities and

achieving a preeminent global standing in the textile sector by 2020, which includes

manufacture and export of all types of textiles.

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Cement

With 153 cement plants and a total installed capacity of around 209 million tonnes

per annum (MTPA), taking both as of March 2009, the Indian cement industry is the

second largest in the world. In 2008-09, total cement consumption in India stood at

178 million tonnes while exports of cement and clinker amounted to around 3 million

tonnes. The cement industry holds a significant place in the national economy

because of its strong linkages to various sectors such as construction, transportation,

coal and power. The cement industry in India is also one of the major contributors to

the exchequer by way of indirect taxes.

Even during the global economic slowdown in 2008-09, growth in cement demand

remained robust at 8.4 per cent. In 2009-10 cement consumption has shot up,

reporting, on an average, 12.5 per cent growth in consumption during the first eight

months with the growth being fuelled by strong infrastructure spending, especially

from the Government Sector.

India produces variety of cement based on different compositions such as Ordinary

Portland cement, Portland Pozzolana, Portland Blast Furnace Slag cement, white

cement and specialised cement. Cement in India is produced as per the Bureau of

Indian Standards (BIS) specifications and the quality is comparable with the best in

the world.

Some of the major players in the cement industry include Ultratech Cement, Gujarat

Ambuja Cement Limited, JK Cements, ACC Cement, Century Cements, Madras

Cements, Holcim and Lafarge to name a few.

Market Size

The Indian cement industry can be divided into five geographical zones—North, South,

East, West and Central—based on localised differentiation in the consumer profile and

supply-demand scenario.

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Demand in the cement industry has seen wonderful growth on the back of

infrastructure, residential and commercial projects. Cement production in India is

anticipated to increase to 315-320 million tonne (MT) by end of this fiscal year from

the current 300 MT. "The target was 290 MT by the end of this year, which we have

already achieved. So, we expect the capacity to increase up to 320 MT by the year

end," according to N A Viswanathan, Secretary General, Cement Manufacturers

Association (CMA). CMA is targeting to achieve 550 MT capacity by 2020.

This industry has seen constant modernisation and implementation of latest

technologies during past few years. About 93 per cent of the total capacity is based on

eco-friendly dry process technology. Progressive liberalization and easing of foreign

direct investments (FDI) norms in various sectors paved the way for growth in FDI,

which led to growing demand for office space from multinational companies (MNCs)

and other foreign investors. Total FDI in the cement sector between April 2000 and

August 2010 stood at US$ 1.9 billion.

Government Initiatives

The cement industry in India is known for its linkages with other sectors. The

Government of India has taken various steps to provide the required impetus to the

industry. At present 100 per cent FDI is allowed in this industry. Both the state and

export policies promote cement production. Exporters can claim duty drawbacks on

imports of coal and furnace oil up to 20 per cent of the total value of imports. Most

state governments offer fiscal incentives in the form of sales tax exemptions/deferrals

in order to attract investment.

A contract worth Rs 1,200 crore (US$ 228.59 million) has been awarded to the Perth

based India Resources by Prism Cement towards development of a captive coal mine,

emphasizing the growing trend of Indian companies outsourcing their mining

operations to foreign entities.

Rajasthan State Industrial Development and Investment Corporation Limited (RIICO)

and Ambuja Cement Limited (ACL) have signed a memorandum of understanding

(MoU) for a 7 km long railway siding. The approximate cost of land, laying of tracks

and developing other infrastructure will be around Rs 150 crore (US$ 28.57 million).

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JK Cement of India has announced a US$ 14.9 million deal to set up a white cement

plant in Fujairah. The plant will have a capacity of 600,000 t/y of white cement, with

the flexibility of producing up to 1m t/y of grey cement.

German cement giant Heidelberg and domestic cement majors including Ultratech and

Reliance Cements have shown interest to be the joint venture partner in state-run

Rashtriya Ispat Nigam's proposed Rs 1,000 crore (US$ 190.45 million), 3 mtpa cement

plant at Vizag.

Road Ahead

According to a recent research report titled 'Indian Cement Industry Forecast to 2012'

published by research firm RNCOS, cement industry in India witnessed massive

growth on the back of various industrial developments and pro-economic policies of

the Union Government. This has helped attracting the attention of various global

cement giants, thereby sparking off a wave of mergers and acquisitions in several

states. The report has estimated India's cement consumption to grow at a compound

annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11 per cent, between 2011-12 and 2013-14.

The research, which focused on the demand-supply outlook and the cement pricing in

various regions of the country revealed that Andhra Pradesh topped the chart in 2008-

09 in terms of large plants and its installed capacity in India.

Fast growing economy and the regulatory support is expected to further encourage the

industry players to embark on expansion plans. Furthermore, it is estimated that the

Government's assistance to several infrastructure projects, road networks and

housing facilities will boost the growth in cement consumption in the near future.

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______________ ____ _________________________ Disclaimer:

This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation

for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any

transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other

sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it

should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s

affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any

person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document

is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the

basis for an investment decision.

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