Grand Prairie ISDQuarterly Economic and Housing Analysis2012

Dallas ISD

Mansfield ISD

Arlington ISD

Irving ISD

Midlothian ISD

Grand Prairie ISD

Cedar Hill ISD

Red Oak ISD

Lancaster ISD

Birdville ISD

Fort Worth ISD

Desoto ISD

Duncanville ISD

Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD

Alvarado ISD

Grapevine-Colleyville ISD

Venus ISD

Keller ISD

Kennedale ISD

Waxahachie ISD

Ferris ISD

Burleson ISD

Richardson ISD

Everman ISD

Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD

Highland Park ISD (Dallas)

Coppell ISD

Palmer ISD

DALLASTARRANT

ELLISJOHNSON

Economic Conditions

• Texas gained 259,500 jobs between Aug. 2011 and Aug. 2012. Continuing to lead the nation in job growth. (Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller)

• The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 68 consecutive months. (Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller)

• DFW 4th in the nation with annual job growth of 52,600 • Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Review (August)

- U.S. 8.2%- Texas 7.0%- DFW 6.9%- Tarrant County 6.9%

• DFW annual new home starts up 22% from 2Q11.

• New housing market in position for sustained growth with inventories in balance and raising rental rates.

• Texas sales tax receipts for June 2012 were 15.2 percent higher than for June 2011. (Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller)

• Sales tax collections have increased for 27 consecutive months (year-over-year), boosted by strong business spending in the oil/natural gas and manufacturing sectors, and to a lesser extent by retail sales activity. (Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller)

• Oil and natural gas production tax collections in the first 11 months of fiscal 2012 were 44 percent higher than during the same period in 2011. (Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller)

Dallas/Fort Worth Market Apartment Market Summary

• Over 8,000 units were absorbed during the second quarter with only 1,563 added to the market.

• Occupancy increased to just over 94% during the second quarter.

• Average rent in DFW rose 4% over the last year.

• Rents rose 7% to 8% over the last year in some of the popular intown neighborhoods such as Uptown and Oak Lawn.

• Approximately 15,000 units are under construction, but no more than 3,200 units are scheduled to be completed in any quarter for the next year and a half.

2011 State enrollment = 4,998,5792011 State enrollment growth = 64,962

4,326,742

4,399,019

4,519,164

4,592,849

4,671,493

4,749,571

4,847,844

4,933,6174,998,579

3,800,000

4,000,000

4,200,000

4,400,000

4,600,000

4,800,000

5,000,000

5,200,000

72,277

120,145

73,685

78,644

78,078

98,273

85,773

64,962

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Texas ISD Enrollment Trends

2006/07 2011/12 CHANGE PERCENT13 323,090 385,526 62,436 20.0%14 47,153 52,288 5,135 11.5%6 156,966 174,707 17,741 11.5%

11 499,522 553,205 53,683 11.0%1 373,247 412,862 39,615 10.9%

10 695,970 763,593 67,623 9.9%4 1,014,545 1,105,601 91,056 9.1%

12 146,459 158,895 12,436 8.7%16 79,540 85,832 6,292 8.0%18 74,777 80,177 5,400 7.2%20 382,365 408,591 26,226 7.0%19 172,713 183,430 10,717 6.2%17 78,296 81,848 3,552 4.5%7 163,732 170,146 6,414 3.9%3 53,289 53,305 16 0.0%8 56,824 56,803 -21 0.0%2 105,978 105,357 -621 -0.6%5 80,840 80,331 -509 -0.6%

15 48,236 47,810 -426 -0.9%9 39,307 38,272 -1,035 -2.6%

STATE 4,592,849 4,998,579 405,730 9.0%

5-YEARREGION ENROLLMENT

DFW

Austin

Houston

San Antonio

Rank District Name 2006-2011 Growth

1 FRISCO ISD 163462 MCKINNEY ISD 34443 ALLEN ISD 30424 RICHARDSON ISD 30025 WYLIE ISD 29296 PLANO ISD 26627 PROSPER ISD 26238 MESQUITE ISD 22859 FORNEY ISD 2126

10 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 199111 IRVING ISD 181912 ROCKWALL ISD 181313 LIFE CHARTER SCHOOL 176814 LOVEJOY ISD 144615 WILLIAMS PREPARATORY 126416 GARLAND ISD 119617 WAXAHACHIE ISD 119418 PEAK ACADEMY 105919 MIDLOTHIAN ISD 99120 ROYSE CITY ISD 858

Rank District Name 2006-2011 Growth

1 NORTHWEST ISD 62382 KELLER ISD 52253 DENTON ISD 51234 MANSFIELD ISD 45495 EAGLE MT-SAGINAW ISD 45006 PARADIGM ACCELERATED SCHOOL 38717 FORT WORTH ISD 36528 LEWISVILLE ISD 28609 HARMONY SCIENCE ACAD (FORT WORTH) 2040

10 BURLESON ISD 170711 ARLINGTON ISD 162112 HURST-EULESS-BEDFORD ISD 133213 LITTLE ELM ISD 123114 BIRDVILLE ISD 117015 WHITE SETTLEMENT ISD 101116 CROWLEY ISD 92617 EVERMAN ISD 83718 SUMMIT INTERNATIONAL PREPARATORY 76419 ARLINGTON CLASSICS ACADEMY 59320 ALEDO ISD 471

Region 10 Region 11

Top Districts In DFW Regions

Region 20 Growth from 2006 - 2011

RANK SCHOOL DISTRICT ANNUAL CLOSINGS

ANNUAL STARTS

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

VACANT DEV. LOTS

FUTURE LOTS

#1 FRISCO ISD 1,933 1,896 566 4,053 11,486#2 NORTHWEST ISD 1,107 1,088 260 2,110 26,178#3 DALLAS INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT 906 633 1,027 2,426 7,871#4 KELLER ISD 833 865 240 1,612 2,860#5 DENTON ISD 819 831 252 2,523 14,146#6 LEWISVILLE ISD 669 669 185 1,895 1,254#7 MANSFIELD ISD 604 577 159 1,283 6,093#8 PROSPER ISD 575 653 190 1,563 14,740#9 EAGLE MT-SAGINAW ISD 541 539 134 2,299 20,321

#10 MCKINNEY ISD 529 536 142 1,508 3,052#11 ALLEN ISD 510 498 127 948 1,446#12 LITTLE ELM ISD 466 471 116 1,199 6,116#13 ROCKWALL ISD 323 332 103 1,938 8,584#14 CROWLEY ISD 315 270 59 2,348 8,222#15 WYLIE ISD (48085) 288 272 79 590 1,188#16 FORNEY ISD 278 240 55 1,966 11,635#17 FORT WORTH ISD 258 246 91 1,450 4,505#18 BURLESON ISD 254 271 72 828 3,860#19 PLANO ISD 246 311 133 1,076 1,535#20 CARROLLTON-FARMERS BRANCH ISD 243 275 88 524 555#21 MIDLOTHIAN ISD 220 225 48 1,015 11,303#22 GARLAND ISD 208 222 71 715 3,180#23 DESOTO ISD 158 159 27 938 3,018#24 WAXAHACHIE ISD 149 161 44 1,160 8,795#25 ARLINGTON ISD 146 137 30 632 498#26 DUNCANVILLE ISD 138 129 16 593 1,013#27 ROYSE CITY ISD 137 137 32 1,230 7,032#28 WEATHERFORD ISD 135 138 40 993 529#29 COPPELL ISD 134 105 35 208 40#30 MELISSA INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT 125 143 55 472 5,420#31 BIRDVILLE ISD 124 123 31 370 218#32 CRANDALL ISD 110 108 49 199 721#33 ANNA ISD 105 149 37 768 3,758#34 COMMUNITY ISD 103 115 28 454 1,158#35 WHITE SETTLEMENT ISD 103 132 35 345 3,011#36 MESQUITE ISD 99 100 27 235 4,612#37 HURST-EULESS-BEDFORD ISD 91 84 33 365 6,051#38 HIGHLAND PARK ISD 88 98 79 92 84#39 GRAPEVINE-COLLEYVILLE ISD 85 94 41 171 869#40 LOVEJOY ISD 82 89 44 169 63#41 ALEDO INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT 81 98 41 774 15,904#42 IRVING ISD 80 53 25 370 140#43 CELINA INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT 75 70 20 278 3,581#44 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 66 53 8 96 465#45 AZLE ISD 62 45 13 812 553#46 KRUM INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT 60 57 9 184 100#47 CARROLL ISD 56 75 40 307 669#48 CEDAR HILL ISD 53 41 21 1,364 187#49 PRINCETON ISD 52 51 13 260 752#50 RED OAK ISD 52 44 15 531 2,480

DFW School District Ranking Report 2Q12 - Ranked by Annual Closing

Foreclosure 2012ISD 1Q12 2Q12Dallas ISD 529 502Fort Worth ISD 262 266Arlington ISD 228 251Garland ISD 228 208Mansfield ISD 189 196Lewisville ISD 180 156Mesquite ISD 181 154Plano ISD 167 148Keller ISD 160 143Frisco ISD 124 122Crowley ISD 102 114Denton ISD 113 107Northwest ISD 68 100Birdville ISD 104 99Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD 100 99De Soto ISD 94 98Grand Prairie ISD 105 98Richardson ISD 84 89Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD 82 72Irving ISD 83 69Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD 79 66Rockwall ISD 50 64McKinney ISD 66 63Little Elm ISD 36 49Azle ISD 27 22Royse City ISD 18 21Grapevine-Colleyville ISD 20 20Midlothian ISD 41 20Carroll ISD 13 15

Starts 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Closings 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121Q 112 82 33 10 15 11 1Q 173 112 58 13 21 162Q 155 91 19 21 20 8 2Q 168 103 45 21 16 103Q 174 73 36 26 24 3Q 217 90 33 19 264Q 76 37 21 18 10 4Q 158 57 46 22 13Total 517 283 109 75 69 19 Total 716 362 182 75 76 26

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Grand Prairie ISD New Housing Information

Starts Closings Housing Inventory

Mountain Creek Lake – 2012 Review

12 Vacant Developed lots

8 Under Construction

• 39 Apartment Complexes

• Over 7,500 Units

• Over 2,500 students

Apartment Complex

Enrollment History

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

• Strong PK and KG growth last year allowed for positive enrollment growth.

Enrollment Forecast by Grade

Year (OCT) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Tota lTotal

Growth Tota l %2006/07 771 1,837 2,080 1,909 1,851 1,866 1,993 1,913 1,820 1,873 2,113 1,903 1,424 1,263 24,6162007/08 894 1,911 2,049 2,052 1,982 1,821 1,957 1,966 1,982 1,820 2,067 2,087 1,442 1,286 25,316 700 2.84%2008/09 981 2,029 2,124 2,020 2,036 1,980 1,914 1,930 2,000 2,051 2,029 2,067 1,499 1,336 25,996 680 2.69%2009/10 959 1,944 2,185 1,991 2,000 2,052 2,011 1,889 1,969 2,046 2,166 1,890 1,752 1,539 26,393 397 1.53%2010/11 1,067 1,857 2,062 2,107 1,973 1,990 2,067 2,005 1,883 1,992 2,124 2,130 1,769 1,510 26,536 143 0.54%2011/12 1,092 1,964 1,970 2,034 2,107 1,966 1,963 2,098 2,004 1,852 2,019 2,181 1,925 1,471 26,646 110 0.41%2012/13 1,092 1,937 2,017 1,974 2,048 2,127 2,000 1,922 2,132 2,006 1,819 1,968 2,033 1,819 26,895 249 0.93%2013/14 1,092 1,923 1,966 2,021 1,987 2,050 2,156 2,025 1,910 2,163 2,024 1,725 1,842 1,890 26,774 -120 -0.45%2014/15 1,092 1,953 1,947 1,963 2,022 1,971 2,059 2,148 2,026 1,911 2,146 1,959 1,622 1,717 26,537 -238 -0.89%2015/16 1,092 1,943 2,066 1,946 1,974 2,032 1,997 2,100 2,141 2,056 1,866 2,066 1,837 1,517 26,633 96 0.36%2016/17 1,092 1,931 1,997 2,065 1,959 1,981 2,051 2,015 2,082 2,180 2,046 1,793 1,930 1,724 26,846 213 0.80%2017/18 1,092 1,951 1,988 1,996 2,082 1,953 2,002 2,038 2,010 2,093 2,150 1,971 1,688 1,807 26,821 -24 -0.09%2018/19 1,092 1,921 2,017 1,995 2,007 2,091 1,956 2,014 2,045 2,015 2,064 2,059 1,847 1,580 26,704 -118 -0.44%2019/20 1,092 1,937 1,978 1,994 2,000 2,014 2,114 1,959 2,017 2,080 1,992 1,982 1,907 1,731 26,797 94 0.35%2020/21 1,092 1,947 1,997 1,972 2,007 2,002 2,029 2,098 1,960 2,040 2,054 1,909 1,868 1,786 26,763 -34 -0.13%2021/22 1,093 1,960 2,008 1,990 1,981 2,013 2,020 2,047 2,101 1,980 2,015 1,970 1,802 1,751 26,730 -32 -0.12%

Elementary Campus ForecastCurrent

Campus Name 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22AUSTIN ELEMENTARY 566 606 659 684 699 701 695 689 690 680 682BONHAM ELEMENTARY 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351 351BOWIE ELEMENTARY 452 472 479 490 499 506 512 515 515 517 520BUSH ELEMENTARY 574 583 573 560 554 537 525 530 530 530 530CROCKETT ELEMENTARY 518 509 554 544 528 518 517 490 549 516 513DANIELS ELEMENTARY 618 610 631 611 624 621 621 628 630 633 635DICKINSON ELEMENTARY 453 462 463 448 453 452 444 448 447 446 447EISENHOWER ELEMENTARY 657 673 674 667 677 681 673 678 682 673 667FANNIN / LEE ELEMENTARY 749 749 737 704 706 683 674 652 635 627 619FLORENCE HILL ELEMENTARY 464 480 506 520 538 562 562 567 564 555 550GARCIA ELEMENTARY 547 549 543 528 538 540 529 535 534 533 533GARNER ELEMENTARY 551 565 569 573 601 621 624 626 633 636 645JOHNSON ELEMENTARY 509 505 501 509 516 511 529 532 540 536 529MARSHALL ELEMENTARY 533 544 540 511 513 532 538 548 546 546 559MILAM ELEMENTARY 581 585 569 579 572 566 570 568 564 557 549MOORE ELEMENTARY 567 552 554 542 558 552 557 564 563 558 552MOSELEY ELEMENTARY 556 577 596 597 616 628 620 620 623 616 622POWEL ELEMENTARY 472 458 424 409 389 391 399 404 417 425 434RAYBURN ELEMENTARY 579 564 529 512 513 524 527 541 544 552 556SEGUIN ELEMENTARY 562 542 538 532 501 491 492 484 491 494 501TRAVIS ELEMENTARY 629 658 626 633 619 591 569 560 532 532 548WHITT ELEMENTARY 565 549 546 535 538 556 557 559 563 543 531WILLIAMS ELEMENTARY 587 598 602 574 572 579 595 604 598 602 602ZAVALA ELEMENTARY 456 454 431 394 375 382 384 386 387 388 390

ELEMENTARY TOTALS 13,096 13,195 13,195 13,007 13,050 13,076 13,064 13,079 13,128 13,046 13,065Elementary Percent Change -0.21% 0.76% 0.00% -1.42% 0.33% 0.20% -0.09% 0.11% 0.37% -0.62% 0.15%Elementary Absolute Change 27 99 0 188 43 26 12 15 49 82 19

Projections

Secondary Campus ForecastCampus Name 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2019/21 2019/22

ADAMS MIDDLE SCHOOL 775 791 729 780 813 869 866 887 897 875 882ARNOLD MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,069 1,170 1,153 1,142 1,180 1,203 1,156 1,139 1,106 1,121 1,107JACKSON MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,057 998 985 958 982 938 878 848 861 891 908KENNEDY MIDDLE SCHOOL 983 1,030 1,138 1,117 1,152 1,154 1,139 1,107 1,062 1,073 1,081LEE / FANNIN MIDDLE SCHOOL 724 733 778 805 833 820 809 809 795 814 818REAGAN MIDDLE SCHOOL 726 726 713 642 652 613 623 610 626 631 636TRUMAN MIDDLE SCHOOL 577 563 553 594 637 632 623 626 661 646 648LAMAR AEP (6-8) 36 46 46 43 45 44 44 44 44 44 44P A S S LEARNING CENTER (6-8) 7 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 5,954 6,060 6,098 6,085 6,298 6,277 6,142 6,074 6,056 6,099 6,128Middle School Percent Change 1.09% 1.79% 0.63% -0.22% 3.49% -0.32% -2.16% -1.10% -0.30% 0.71% 0.48%Middle School Absolute Change 64 106 38 13 212 20 135 68 18 43 29

Campus Name 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2019/21 2019/22GRAND PRAIRIE 9TH GRADE CENTER 682 712 785 814 719 785 860 804 825 820 804GRAND PRAIRIE HIGH SCHOOL 1,885 1,900 1,766 1,772 1,862 1,880 1,870 1,919 1,962 2,002 2,002SOUTH GRAND PRAIRIE 9TH 835 699 801 874 730 818 825 810 732 787 771SOUTH GRAND PRAIRIE HIGH SCHOOL 2,317 2,455 2,337 2,262 2,314 2,324 2,346 2,309 2,377 2,289 2,260DUBISKI CAREER HIGH SCHOOL 1,512 1,445 1,369 1,317 1,241 1,269 1,300 1,291 1,300 1,304 1,284LAMAR AEP (9-12) 52 68 69 63 67 66 65 66 66 66 66CROSSWINDS 304 353 348 335 345 342 341 343 342 342 342P A S S LEARNING CENTER (9-12) 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8FUTURE

HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 7,596 7,640 7,481 7,444 7,285 7,492 7,615 7,550 7,612 7,617 7,537High School Percent Change 0.97% 0.57% -2.08% -0.49% -2.14% 2.84% 1.64% -0.85% 0.82% 0.07% -1.06%High School Absolute Change 73 44 159 -37 -159 207 123 -65 62 6 -80DISTRICT TOTALS 26,646 26,895 26,774 26,537 26,633 26,846 26,821 26,704 26,796 26,763 26,730District Percent Change 0.41% 0.93% -0.45% -0.89% 0.36% 0.80% -0.09% -0.44% 0.35% -0.12% -0.12%District Absolute Change 110 249 120 238 96 213 24 118 93 33 32

Positives• Texas economy continues to out perform the nation.• DFW 4th highest job growth city in the country.• Texas Annual Job Growth areas (June 2012 – June 2011): 231,800

nonagricultural Professional and Business Services (37,200 jobs 2.8%)Mining (29,200 jobs 12.6%)Trade, Transportation and Utilities (48,500 jobs 2.3%)Leisure and Hospitality (47,500 jobs 4.6%) – (Texas Workforce Commission)

• Housing market should begin to improve later part of 2012 see continued growth in 2013.

Concerns• Foreclosures still dragging housing, primarily in the lower price ranges.• Government layoffs and the continued education funding crisis.

Summary

• District in position for enrollment growth of 249 (1%) growth fall 2012.

• District enrollment will likely stay near 27,000 during the next several years.

• Enrollment growth/decline will follow student mobility patterns as families move in and out of rental properties.

Summary