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Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 1

Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

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Page 1: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

Grameenphone Ltd.

October, 2018

This is the footer text.

1

Page 2: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

Disclaimer

The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom

such presentation may lawfully be communicated (’relevant persons’). Any person who is not

a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its contents.

Information in the following presentation relating to the price at which relevant investments

have been bought or sold in the past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon

as a guide to the future performance of such investments.

This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an

invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire

securities in Grameenphone Ltd. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation

in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions

into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves

about, and observe, such restrictions.

Page 3: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

3

Mobile market

leader in a

fast-growing

economy

Page 4: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

BANGLADESH AT A GLANCE

Sources: WorldBank, CIA Factbook

• GNI per capita of USD 1,330

• Largely a cash based economy

• Main sectors: Service, manufacturing and agriculture

• Stable inflation and currency performance

• Population of 168m, growing by >1% per year

• Young population, 47% below 25 years

• Expanding middle class

Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years)

28%

19%

40%

7% 6%

0-14 yrs 15-24 yrs 25-54 yrs 55-64 yrs >64 yrs

5.0%5.2%

5.9% 6.0%6.2%

Nigeria Kenya Sri Lanka Vietnam Bangladesh

Economics Demographics

4

Page 5: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

5

Commercial operation of

HBTL (Hutchison Bangladesh

Telecom Ltd.) with AMPS

technology

1996

1997

3 major GSM players

currently named GP,

Banglalink and Robi came

into operation

1998

Mobile-Mobile

service launch 1999

Prepaid service

launch

2002

• 1mn subscriber

• Formation of Bangladesh

Telecommunication

Regulatory commission

2004

Launch of state owned

operator Teletalk as the

5th player

2005

• Introduction of SIM tax

• Launch of Warid Telecom as the

6th player

• Banglalink re-launch after

Orascom’s acquisition

24 YEARS OF MOBILE TELECOM SERVICES

• New interconnection

regime (ICX, IGW & IIG)

• Launch of separate

Broadband Wireless

Access (Wimax)

operation

2008

2009

• 90%+ population coverage

• 50 Mn subscribers

Entry of Airtel

Bangladesh by

acquiring Warid

Telecom

2010

2011

Renewal of 2G

spectrum for 15

years

2013

• 100 mn

subscribers

• 3G cellular

mobile phone

services

2016

Merger of Robi

and Airtel

SIM re-registration through

NID & Biometric

Verification System

1993

Launch of brand

name Citycell by

PBTL (restructured

HBTL)

2018 Launch of 4G

services

Page 6: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

AN ATTRACTIVE AND GROWING MOBILE MARKET

DOMINATED BY PREPAID

• 156 million subscribers, of which 98% prepaid

• Multi-SIM market with around 55% real mobile penetration*

• 36% internet penetration*, rapidly increasing

• ARPU of around USD 2

• Scale benefit drives healthy margin for top 3 players

• Continuously developing regulatory landscape

6

Industry Subscribers (Mn)

*Based on estimation

**Subscriber adjustment due to bio-metric verification during 2016

120

134 126

145 156

2014 2015 2016** 2017 Sep'2018

Page 7: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

GRAMEENPHONE IS THE UNDISPUTED MARKET LEADER,

WITH SOLID FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

7

Revenues (BDT Bn) and EBITDA margin (%)*** Total revenue market shares*

• 7% revenue CAGR and 12% EBITDA CAGR in 4 years

• Growing EBITDA margin with efficiency improvements

• 14% operating cash flow CAGR with margin improvement

• 71.4 million subscribers and #1 brand in Bangladesh

• Largest network: 14,140 2G and 13,619 3G sites

• Widest distribution: More than 373k points of sales

*Source: Company Website

**Airtel merged wih Robi from Q4'2016

*** EBITDA before other items

53% 53% 51% 53% 53% 54%

22% 22% 23% 22% 19% 18%

25% 25% 26% 24% 28% 28%

2013% 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 2018

Grameenphone Banglalink Robi

GRAMEENPHONE IS THE UNDISPUTED MARKET LEADER WITH

SOLID FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

97 103 105

115

128

51% 53% 53%

55%

59%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Revenue EBITDA Margin

Page 8: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

3Q2018: STRONG BUSINESS PERFORMANCE DRIVEN BY

VOICE AND DATA

8

*Normalized for accounting practice changes

**As per IAS 18

*88Normalized for IAS 18, Q3’18 reversal and Q3’17 one-off items

Revenue (BDT Bn) and Growth (YoY)

33.2

32.2

31.2

32.6

34.3

12.8%

8.0%

2.0% 0.5%

3.40%

-2.0%

3.0%

8.0%

13.0%

18.0%

23.0%

28.0%

29.5

30.5

31.5

32.5

33.5

34.5

Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18

EBITDA* (BDT Bn) and Margin**

19.5

19.0

18.0

19.6

21.2

58.7% 58.8% 57.6% 60.6% 61.9%

30.0%

80.0%

130.0%

180.0%

230.0%

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18

NPAT (BDT Bn) and Margin

7.0

6.0 6.4

10.8

8.9

21.0% 18.5% 20.4%

33.1% 26.20%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18

• 6.1% normalized total revenue growth*

• 9.6% voice revenue growth

• Normalized EBITDA growth of 7.2% and

margin improvement of 2.2 pp***

• One-off reversal of excess provision

• Normalized NPAT margin of 25.7%*

Page 9: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

Q3 2018

Reached 3.8 Mn

4G users*

4745 4G sites

rollout*

44% 4G devices

with 4G SIM*

36.3 Mn overall data

subscribers 3G volume growth

after 4G conversion

*As of 30 September 2018

Page 10: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

New Number Series 013

BAU

• Planned rollout completion,

modernization and capacity

enhancement to maintain network

superiority

• Continued drive on quality subscriber

acquisition

• Optimization of voice offers and

usage stimulation with new data

value proposition

• Focus on organizational efficiency

initiatives

• Regulatory engagement for upcoming

developments

Priorities for 2018

Page 11: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

12

Significant

Growth

Opportunities

Page 12: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

VOICE SEGMENT REMAINS IMPORTANT AND STILL OFFERS

ATTRACTIVE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

13

• Real mobile penetration currently at approx. 55%,

expected to increase

• Affordability of marginal subscriber improving

• Leverage expanded network and distribution footprint

• Improving price perception and simplicity in offers

• Strengthen position in B2B, postpaid and youth

segment

Voice AMPU and APPM (BDT)

168 168

194 203

0.77

0.68

0.59 0.56

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017

Voice AMPU APPM (BDT)

Page 13: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

INCREASING DATA USAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY

REVENUE GROWTH DRIVER GOING FORWARD

14

Data users and revenue contribution Average data usage (MB per month)

• 19.5% total data revenue growth in first 9 months of 2018

• Support from 3G/4G network coverage expansion

• Proliferation of affordable smartphones will be key

• Usage driven by video streaming and social media

• 72% of monthly active data users use facebook • Flagship ‘Digital Bangladesh’ vision of Government to act

as an enabler

126

284

488

651

947

2014 2015 2016 2017 9M 2018

21%

28%

42%

48% 50.90%

5%

8%

12%

17% 18.80%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2014 2015 2016 2017 9M 2018

Page 14: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

STRATEGIC PRIORITIES

GROWTH

EFFICIENCY

SIMPLIFICATION

Business Environment Management

Winning Team

Responsible Business Conduct

Page 15: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

INVESTING IN NETWORKS TO CAPTURE DATA GROWTH

• 13,619** no of 3G sites is covering 94.5%** of population

• 3745+ 4G sites rolled out in the first nine months of 2018

• Network modernization ongoing to consolidate superior

position

• Strong end-to-end fiber backhaul across the country

• Expansion of indoor coverage to address rapid

urbanization and vertical city expansion

• Constrained fixed broadband market

16

*Source: Company website (Q2 end 2018)

** End of Q3 2018

12719

3000

9429

6100

3G 4G

93%

72%

3G Population Coverage

GP Robi BL

3G/4G sites & Pop. coverage per operator*

Page 16: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

17

Physical

Distribution has

been a Major

Strength

Page 17: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

…WHILE PHYSICAL DISTRIBUTION REMAINS THE CORE,

DIGITAL DISTRIBUTION IS SHAPING UP

• Convenience is driving recharge through digital

channel

• Most digital interaction starts from physical location

• Bridging the digital and physical world with GP

Express stores i.e. integration of e-commerce platform

• Digitization of tools and processes to ensure

empowerment and efficiency of channel

18

Recharge through digital channels (% of sales)

0.1% 0.5%

8.2%

10.4% 11.7%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Page 18: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

18

SIMPLIFICATION JOURNEY IS A STRATEGIC PRIORITY FOR

VALUE CREATION

Customer processes

simplification & digitalization

• Continue with the journey embarked 3 years back

• Simplify and digitize new processes identified by the structured approach under process council

Simplest for B2B

• Enterprise self-service with reporting, execution and complaint management module

• Self-service for all possible after sales activities in phases

Self-service transformation

• Focus on USSD, IVR and social media self service uptake

• Enriched features of MyGP with cross channel promotion, contextual product offering, digitized loyalty program etc.

Robust IT services

• Minimize IT system defects and critical system outages

• Improvement scope in infrastructure, process, application, architecture and security

Page 19: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

12% 6% 1%

12%

-40%

-18%

63%

A TRACK RECORD OF CONTROLLED OPEX DESPITE GROWTH AND

SIGNIFICANT NETWORK EXPANSION

20

Item wise Opex growth of 2017 (YoY) Opex (BDT Bn) and Margin

• Continued simplification of IS/IT platforms

• Efficiency in network operations and market spending

• Organizational restructuring

• 2013-2017:1.5% opex growth against 7% revenue growth,

8% base stations growth and 9% sub-base growth

• Opex margin reduced from 41% to 33%

• 3.4% opex growth in 2017 with further margin

improvement

*Rev. & Sub.

driven

Rent &

Energy Personnel Market

Spend O & M **Regulatory ***Others

*Revenue sharing with BTRC is included

** Regulatory cost involves revenue share, WPPF, spectrum charges and license fees

***Main component is consultancy. Includes one-off items for 2017

39.7 38.8 38.3

40.8 42.2

4 1 % 3 8 % 3 6 %

3 5 % 3 3 %

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Page 20: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

COMMITMENT TO FURTHER EFFICIENCY

21

Technology Market Personnel Support

• New operating model for network management activities

• IT & network service contract re-negotiation and scope rationalization

• Rent reduction through contract negotiation with service provider

• Elimination of hard copy subscriber acquisition form with electronic version

• Optimization of channel incentives

• Increased sales through digital channels

• Optimized shift in digital media for market spending

• Optimization of support

and overhead costs

• Control over

discretionary costs

• Effect realization of

headcount efficiency

• Further exercise

ongoing for Head

Quarter staff

Page 21: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

22

MANAGING RISKS IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

While there are substantial challenges in the business environment, Grameenphone has more than 20 years

of experience in successfully managing regulatory and policy risks

Government’s Vision of

‘Digital Bangladesh’ Regulatory Developments Business Environment Management

• Realization of Digital Bangladesh

remains a political priority and

expected to enable growth in the

telecom industry

• Recognition of Telecom and ICT

sectors as enablers of economic

and socioeconomic development

• Numerous initiatives undertaken for

enabling local ecosystem for

software and IT services e.g. e-

government, public-private

partnerships

• Formulation of new regulations and

revision of existing ones through public

as well as industry consultation

• Nascent regulations regarding digital

services, but so far have been

conducive to continued growth i.e. e-

commerce policy

• Bangladesh Labour Act is under

review; anticipation of further clarity for

service sector employees

• Establishment as a trusted partner of

the Government as well as a service

provider, value creator and innovator

contributing towards Digital

Bangladesh vision

• Aspiration to strengthen

sustainability initiatives and role in

empowering society

• Considerable priority towards

managing regulatory and policy risks

by the company

• Collaboration with local and

international stakeholders

Page 22: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

23

DEVELOPING REGULATORY LANDSCAPE

• BTRC audit commenced on 3 Aug’2016 and received a summary of the draft audit observations on 11 Dec'17

• After submission of feedback on 18 Jan’18, a tri-party meeting was held on 18 Feb’18 regarding clarification

• Received the final audit report on 26 Aug’18. GP submitted its response in two phases – on 6th and 19th Sep’18 BTRC Audit

Tariff Circuit on

Data

Tower Co. Licensing Guideline

• Licensing guideline was published on 1 Apr’18 where MNOs will not be eligible to participate

• 4 selected firms have deposited the application fees along with bank guarantee in the 3rd week of Sept’18

• Company formation allowed till 20 Oct’18 for awarding license

• BTRC is in the process of issuing license

• BTRC intends to introduce floor and ceiling price for data. On 9th Oct’18, in a consultation meeting, BTRC has

asked operators to submit their views/inputs

• GP supports this notion and submitted its proposals on 18th Oct

• We expect some consultation at BTRC

Mobile Number Portability Services

(MNPS)

• BTRC revised tariff circuit in order to introduce single floor price for all MNOs effective from 14 Aug’18

• Revised floor and ceiling rate are BDT 0.45/Min and BDT 2/Min respectively

• No pricing differentiation allowed for on-net and off-net calls in any customer offer

• All operators have launched MNP services on 1 Oct’18

Page 23: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

24

CONTINGENCIES

Sl. Items

Refer to Annual

Report 2017 and

3Q2018 Financial

Statements for details.

(https://www.grameenphone.

com/about/investor-

relations/ir-financial-report)

1 Information system audit by BTRC

2 SIM tax on replacement SIMs (2007 – 2011)

3 SIM tax on replacement SIMs (2012 – 2015)

4 Claim for VAT based on C&AG audit

5 VAT rebate on 2G license renewal fee

6 Interest on SIM Tax (2006 – 2007)

7 Interest for delayed payment of Guaranteed Annual Rent to

Bangladesh Railway

Page 24: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

HEALTHY SHAREHOLDER RETURN

27

Total Shareholder Return** Payout Ratio and Dividend Yield*

• Dividend policy states at least 50% dividend payout of NPAT; last three years average payout was 101%

• Total shareholder return of 200% from 2013

• Outperformed local market index (DSEX) by 162 percentage points

*Considered closing price of prior trading session of record date

**Including dividend reinvestment and end period of 30 August 2018

220%

170%

120%

70%

20%

-30%

320%

270% 129%

109% 96%

105% 101% 98%

7.5%

4.9% 4.7% 5.9%

4.8%

3.2%

20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 (Inter im )

Page 25: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

CONTRIBUTION TO THE BANGLADESH ECONOMY

27

• 69.1 Bn (70.4% or revenues) contributed to exchequer in the form of taxes, VAT, duties, spectrum

assignment, neutrality, network coverage, capacity enhancement and license fees.

15.2

19.3 21.1

14.5

30.1

2014 2015 2016 2017 9M 2018

58.9

51.1

58.6 61.8

69.1

2014 2015 2016 2017 9M 2018

Investment BDT Bn Contribution to National Exchequer BDT Bn

17.1 4G license

fees

Page 26: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

*In consideration of the local regulations, Grameenphone Ltd. does not provide any forward looking statements.

Summary*

New Number Series 013

BAU

Strong market leader in an attractive growth market

Investing to maintain superior network and service position

Growth and operating efficiencies to drive future profitability

Page 27: Grameenphone Ltd. October, 2018 · Expanding middle class Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years) 28% 19% 40% ... name Citycell by PBTL(restructured HBTL) 2018 Launch

Q&A

27

Thank you