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3 Subset of units in California, ranked in order of NOx emission rate
Citation preview
Government’s Evolving Role in Resource Planning and Environmental Protection
Arthur H. Rosenfeld, CommissionerCalifornia Energy Commission
April 19, 2002
(916) [email protected]
2
Percent of Air Emissions in the U.S. from Fossil Fuel Use
98%91%
97%
52%
85%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
CO2 SO2 NO2 VOC COSource: U.S. EPA 1998 Emissions Trends Report and U.S. DOE-EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S.
3
Emission Rate for NOx from Selected Plants Less than 100 MW -- August 2001 Source: Federal EPA Acid Rain Program, Continuous Emissions Monitoring System
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
lbs
of N
Ox
per M
Wh
Subset of units in California, ranked in order of NOx emission rate
4
ISO Load Duration Curves for The Past Two Years
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Hours in the year
MW
2000
2001
5
The Cost of Meeting the Peak
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
All Hours in the year
MW
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
$/M
Wh
Total Cost of Production per MWh (including debt service and operating cost)
ISO Load Duration Curve (MW)
Simple Cycle Combined Cycle
6
The Cost of Meeting the "Super Peak"
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Top 10% of Hours in the year
MW
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
$/M
Wh
Total Cost of Production per MWh (including debt service and operating cost) from Simple Cycle Turbine
ISO Load Duration Curve (MW)
7
Cal ISO Daily Peak LoadsJanuary 1, 2000 - December 31, 2000
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan-00
Feb-00
Mar-00
Apr-00
May-00
Jun-00
Jul-0
0
Aug-00
Sep-00
Oct-00
Nov-00
Dec-00
GW
Peak Day August 16 - 43.5 GW
Commercial AC
Residential AC
8
Electricity Use in California
• 2/3 of all electricity (kWh) is used in buildings• 50% of buildings in PG&E are in “Block 50” (exempted
from rolling blackouts)• 40% of Peak Demand is due to Air Conditioning plus
Lighting
9
Top Ten Peak Energy Uses/Sectors
(assumes a 50,000 MW peak)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Com A
C
Res AC
Assembly
Indu
stry
Com Ligh
t
Com M
isc
Res Misc
TCU Buil
dings
Ag & W
ater P
umpin
g
Process
Indu
stry
Res Refr
igerat
or
End-Use/Sector
Meg
awat
ts
15% 14%
11% 11%
7% 6%
4% 4% 4% 4%
10
CEC has Two Types of Regulatory AuthorityRelated to Demand Response
• Building and Efficiency Standards– Title 20 and 24 Update with adoption in 2003 and implementation in 2005– Everything from efficient air conditioners to white roofs
• Load Management Powers– New buildings -- first priority– Then most existing buildings
• CEC feels responsible for the 23,000 interval meters installed with state funds– 16,000 meters are in; 7,000 more by summer– Covers 25% of the peak load of the state– However, only Time-of-Use tariffs in widespread use
• Concerns regarding non-specific nature of TOU – Same price in all summer afternoons regardless of system load,
system condition, or wholesale price
11
• Load Management Tools Are Increasingly Cost-Effective– Interval Meters and Communication– Price Responsive Thermostats– Lighting Controls– Other Process Modifications
• Hourly Electric Rates Are Still in Pilot Stage– For load with new meters (> 200 kW), CPUC requires TOU rates
and offers emergency load management incentives– But has yet to combine these into an hourly tariff– In other jurisdictions, hourly rates have
• reduced the cost to serve load and• enabled firms to reduce their costs of operation
Demand Response to Time-Dependent Prices
12
Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) -- My Visionbased on Gulf Power tariff
CPP varies empirically to reduce demand at critical locations and times
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Pric
e (c
ents
/kW
h)
Standard TOUCritical Peak PriceStandard Rate
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
Curtailment Signal
Variable CPP
13
Gulf Power GoodCents Select Tariff
• Reduces need during critical or near critical periods (emergencies -- present or expected --, very high prices)– Summer Peak Load Reductions of 2.1 kW per house (1st hour)– Winter Peak Load Reduction of 2.7 kW per house (1st hour)
• 4-hour reduction roughly 1 kW• 96% Customer Satisfaction Rating
– Cost savings, greater control and better information• Improves competitive position of Gulf Power in wholesale
markets
14
Critical Peak Pricing (CPP)e.g. Gulf Power residential GoodCents Select tariff
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Pric
e (c
ents
/kW
h)
Standard TOUCritical Peak PriceStandard Rate
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
Curtailment Signal
15
Proposed System for Demand Response in New Homes & Small Commercial Buildings
Load Data1
Price/Proxy/
Curtailment Signal1
Interval Meter Δ$=$1001
Communicating Thermostat
Δ$=$502
Cost of Avoided Load: $100-200 per kW
1. Utility responsible for signal, communications, meter, and load data.2. Builder responsible for communicating thermostat.
16
Georgia Power’s Voluntary 2-part RTP Program
• Customer bill = Part 1 + Part 2– Part 1 based on historical load profile– Part 2 based on price responsive departures from load profile
• Historical load profile is from previous year– Called Customer Baseline Load (CBL)
• a list of hourly loads for entire year• Part 1 is the CBL x TOU tariff
– What you expect to pay if you don’t respond to real-time price• Part 2 is the hourly departures from CBL
– Enables customer to buy additional kWh when prices are low– And sell back kWh when prices are high
• Saves 17% at ~$1/kWh on hot afternoons
17
A High-Tech Firm and Real Time Prices
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24hour of the day
KW
load
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Rea
l Tim
e Pr
ice
(cen
ts p
er K
Wh)
Actual KW
Baseline KW
TOUTOU
RTP
18
Summary of Time-of-Use (TOU), Critical Peak Pricing(CPP), and Real-Time (RTP) Prices
• Time-of-Use (TOU) is typically 3 time blocks published in advance for entire season– Peak, Shoulder, Off-Peak– Can’t foresee weather or equipment failures
• Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) is a high price imposed for a few days a year when system conditions are critical or near critical– A discount is given during off peak hours– Customer pays the critical peak price when invoked by the utility
• a day ahead forecast of CPP offers additional time for response
• Real-Time Pricing (RTP) is hourly real-time marginal cost of a kWh– Reflects hot weather, scarcity, or equipment failure
• a day ahead forecast of RTP offers additional time for response
19
Load Management with Time-Dependent (Dynamic) Pricing
• MICRO-Economic Benefits– Leads to lower costs– Lowers risk of market power– Treats supply and demand symmetrically– Independent of regulated, deregulated, or hybrid industry structure
• Issues– Understanding how loads will respond– Additional study regarding voluntary vs. mandatory
• Impact on customers– Stable industry structure; credit-worthy participants– Clear, consistent government regulation
20
My Vision of Tariff Options
• Residential and Small Commercial– Default = CPP– Hedge = TOU
• Industrial and Large Commercial– Default = CPP– Hedge = TOU– Option = RTP (voluntary)
21
4o F Thermostat Rise for a 10-ton Rooftop A/C
4-hour average saves one-third of A/C, ~1W/sq. ft.
22
59th Street Building - Hourly Averaged LoadsAll A/C Loads - 11 Tons
Curtailment = Setpoint + 4 Deg. (1 to 5 PM)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
Load
(kW
/100
0 Sq
uare
Fee
t)
Curtailment Day kW Baseline Day kW
IMPACTS / 1000 sf:Avg. kW (1-5PM) = 1.0
Average Hourly Data -- All AC units
From: Ed Hamzawi, SMUD, Oct. 20, 2000
SMUD
23
59th. St. Building - 5 Minute Interval LoadsSecond Floor Lights
Curtailment = 30% Reduction In Lighting Level (1 to 5 PM)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
11:0
0
11:1
5
11:3
0
11:4
5
12:0
0
12:1
5
12:3
0
12:4
5
1:00
1:15
1:30
1:45
2:00
2:15
2:30
2:45
3:00
3:15
3:30
3:45
4:00
4:15
4:30
4:45
5:00
5:15
5:30
5:45
6:00
Time
Loa
d (k
W)
Curtailment Day kW Baseline Day kW
5- Minute Data (Lights)
From: Ed Hamzawi, SMUD, Oct. 20, 2000
SMUD
24
E-20 T Average Load per CustomerMay to August 2000 and 2001
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
5/15 5/22 5/29 6/5 6/12 6/19 6/26 7/3 7/10 7/17 7/24 7/31 8/7 8/14 8/21
kWh
2000
2001