1

Modeling City Size Data with a Double-Asymptotic Model(Tsallis q-entropy)

Deriving the two Asymptotic Coefficients (q,Y0)and the crossover parameter (kappa: ҝ)

for 24 historical periods, 900-1970from Chandler’s data in the largest world cities in each

checking that variations in the parameters for adjacent periods entail real urban system variation

and that these variations characterize historical periodsthen testing hypotheses about how these variations

tie in to what is known about World system interaction dynamics

good lord, man, why would you want to do all this?

That will be the story

2

Y0=3228

largest=530

Angle u

ü = - O u

3

Why Tsallis q-entropy?That part of the story comes out of network analysis

there is a new kid on the block beside scale-free and small-world models of networks

which are not very realistic Tsallis q-entropy is realistic (more later)but does it apply to social phenomena

as a general probabilistic model?The bet was, with Tsallis,

that a generalized social circles network model would not only fit but help to explain q-entropy

in terms of multiplicative effects that occur in networks

when you have feedback

That’s the history of the paper in Physical Review E by DW, CTsallis, NKejzar, et al.

and we won the bet

4

So what is Tsallis q-entropy?It is a physical theory and mathematical model (of) how physical phenomena depart from randomness (entropy)

but also fall back toward entropy at sufficiently small scalebut that’s only one side of the story, played out between:

q=1 (entropy) and q>1, multiplicative effectsas observed in power-law tendencies

That story Is in Physical Review E 2006 by DW, CTsallis, NKejzar, et al.

for simulated feedback networks

entropy toward power-law tails with slope 1/(1-q)

Breaking out of

(exponential)

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That story is told in the Tsallis q-entropy equation

Yq ≡ Y0 [1-(1-q) x/κ]1/(1-q)

entropy toward power-law tails with slope 1/(1-q)

Breaking out of

So what’s the other side of the story?

In the first part we had breakout from q=1 with q increases that lower the slope

Ok, now you have figured out that as q 1 toward an infinite slope the q-entropy function converges to pure entropy, as measured by Boltzmann-Gibbs

But that’s not all because there is another ordered state on the other side of entropy, where q (always ≥ 0) is less that 1! While q > 1 tends to power-law and q=1 converges to exponential (appropriate for BG entropy), q < 1 as it goes to 0 tends toward a simple linear function.

q=2 q=4 etcetera

(exponential)

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Ok, so given x, the variable sizes of cities, then Yq ≡ the q-exponential fitted to real data Y(x) by parameters Y0, κ, and q. And the q-exponential is simply the eq

x′ ≡ x[1-(1-q) x ′]1/(1-q) part of the function where it can be proven that eq=1

x ≡ ex ≡ the measure of entropy. Then q is the metric measure of departure from entropy, in our two directions, above or below 1.

The story is told in the Tsallis q-entropy equation

Yq ≡ Y0 [1-(1-q) x/κ]1/(1-q)

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Ok, so now we know what q means, but what the parameters Y0 and κ? Well, remember: there are two asymptotes here, not just the asymptote to the power-law tail, but the asymptote to the smallness of scale at which the phenomena, such as “city of size x” no longer interacts with multiplier effects and may even cease to exist (are there cities with 10 people?)

This story is told in the Tsallis q-entropy equation

Yq ≡ Y0 [1-(1-q) x/κ]1/(1-q)

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So, now let’s look at the two asymptotes in the context of a cumulative distribution:

This story is told in the Tsallis q-entropy equation

Yq ≡ Y0 [1-(1-q) x/κ]1/(1-q)

Y0 is all the limit of all people in cities

And this is the asymptotic limit of the power law tail

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Here is a curve that fits these two asymptotes:

This story is told in the Tsallis q-entropy equation

Yq ≡ Y0 [1-(1-q) x/κ]1/(1-q)

Y0 is the limit of all people in cities

And this is the asymptotic limit of the power law tail

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Here are three curves with the same Y0 and q but different k

This story is told in the Tsallis q-entropy equation

Yq ≡ Y0 [1-(1-q) x/κ]1/(1-q)

Y0 is the limit of all people in cities

And this is the asymptotic limit of the power law tail

100

1000

10000

100 1000

So now you get the idea of how the curves are fit by the three parameters

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6800

6310

5012

3981

3162

2512

1995

1585

1259

1000

794

631

501

398

316

251

200

159

126

100

79.4

63.1

50.1

39.8

31.6

binlogged

10

8

6

4

minv1950v1925v1900v1875v1850v1825v1800v1750v1700v1650v1600v1575v1550v1500v1450v1400v1350v1300v1250v1200v1150v1100v1000v900

Transforms: natural log

Cum

ulat

ive

City

Po

pula

tions

City Size Bins

3.1

24MIL

3MIL

420K

55K

v1970

12

6800

6310

5012

3981

3162

2512

1995

1585

1259

1000

794

631

501

398

316

251

200

159

126

100

79.4

63.1

50.1

39.8

31.6

binlogged

10

8

6

4

minv1950v1925v1900v1875v1850v1825v1800v1750v1700v1650v1600v1575v1550v1500v1450v1400v1350v1300v1250v1200v1150v1100v1000v900

Transforms: natural log

Cum

ulat

ive

City

Po

pula

tions

City Size Bins

3.1

24MIL

3MIL

420K

55K

v1970

One feature in these fits is the estimate of Y0 (total urban populations)

1319701950192519001850182518001750170016501600157515501500145014001350130012501200115011001000900

year

14

13

12

11

10

9

8

7

Yexcel0ChinaPop

Transforms: natural log

7%6%5%4%3%2%

7%6%5%4%3%2%

.83B

170M

80M

30M

44M

4M

.83B

170M

80M

30M

44M

4M

China log population, log estimate Y0: urban population, and estimated % urban

(the estimates of Y0 are in exactly the right ratios to total population and %ages)

Total population

Percentages

Y0 estimates

?

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q runs test: 8 Q-periods (p=.06)

19701950192519001850182518001750170016501600157515501500145014001350130012501200115011001000900

date

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00Mean

q_a

vera

ge

Parameter Estimates

1.953 .953 -2.146 6.052

Parameter

qAsymptotic

Estimate Std. Error Lower Bound Upper Bound

95% Confidence Interval

Lower Bound Upper Bound

95% Trimmed Range

.795 .094 .608 .983 .795 .795

229.307 6.854 215.592 243.022 229.307 229.307

2471.785 3.307 2465.167 2478.403 2471.785 2471.785

Y

q

k

Y

Bootstrap a,b

Based on 60 samples.a.

Loss function value equals 4161.644.b.

Table 1: Example of bootstrapped parameter estimates for 1650

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y = 7E+09x -1.5644 R 2 = 0.947

y = 1E+06x -0.6451 R 2 = 0.9338

y = 142750x -0.6579 R 2 = 0.8795

y = 21567x -0.3933 R 2 = 0.9533

y = 8587.9x -0.4203 R 2 = 0.8639

y = 11616x -0.4728 R 2 = 0.8888 y = 24166x -0.6254

R 2 = 0.9381 y = 30224x -0.7764 R 2 = 0.9443

y = 23999x -0.7624 R 2 = 0.9981

y = 705358x -1.8002 R 2 = 0.9453

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Pop (k)

900 Data 900 Fitted 1000 Fitted 1000 Data 1300 Fitted 1300 Data 1350 Fitted 1350 Data 1400 Fitted 1400 Data 1450 Fitted 1450 Data 1500 Fitted 1500 Data 1970 Fitted 1970 Data 1950 Fitted 1950 Data 1900 Fitted 1900 Data D1900 Fitted 1800 Fitted D1800 Fitted 1800 Data

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

Figure 4: Variation in R2 fit for q to the q-entropy model – China 900-1970Key: Mean value for runs test shown by dotted line.

Average R2

Power law fits .93

q entropy fits

.984

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commensurability & lowest bin convergence to Y0

Table 2: Correlations among the commensurate-ordering variables in Table 3 Pop Y0 31.6K Communalities Total Chinese Population .88 Y0 Estimate .75** .95 Bin Estimate at 31.6K .81** .96** .97 Κ .70** .81** .90** .91

* p <.05 ** p < .01 :At city bin size 10±2 thousand or greater 95% of

the city distribution (as a fraction of Y0) is present: this is the effective (smallest) city sizes for all

periods

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largest=530

Y0=3228

Dynamics

ü = - O u

Angle u

Population

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q ranges Endogenous secular population cycle Exceptions ‘Early’

pop. rise ‘Late’ pop. rise

Population Maximum

Crash Economy Captured

Exception deurbanized

q~3 ‘abnormal’

1800 2.77 1825 2.99

q~1.7 ‘rigid’

1100 1.72 1850 1.85

q~1.5 Zipfian

1000 1.37 1450 1.50 1500 1.34 1925 1.39

1575 1.35 1600 1.48

1150 1.4

1970 1.49

q~1 ‘random’

1300 0.85 1350 0.85 1400 1.24 1700 1.00 1750 1.29 1900 1.14

1550 1.04 1950 1.06

q~.5 - .8 ‘chaotic’

1200 0.54

1650 0.8 1875 <1?

q~0 ‘flee the cities’

1250 0.02

Table 6: Total Chinese population oscillations and q

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Turchin’s secular cycle dynamic-China

? ? ? ? ? ?

6

400 500 6

Figure 8: Turchin secular cycles graphs for China up to 1100 Note: (a) and (b) are from Turchin (2005), with population numbers between the Han and Tang Dynasties filled in. Sociopolitical instability in the gap between Turchin’s Han and Tang graphs has not been measured.

(a) Han China (b) Tang China

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Example: Kohler on ChacoKohler, et al. (2006) have replicated such cycles for pre-state

Southwestern Colorado for the pre-Chacoan, Chacoan, and post-Chacoan, CE 600–1300, for which they have “one of the most accurate and precise demographic datasets for any prehistoric society in the world.” Secular oscillation correctly models those periods “when this area is a more or less closed system,” but, just as Turchin would have it, not in the “open-systems” period, where it “fits poorly during the time [a 200 year period] when this area is heavily influenced first by the spread of the Chacoan system, and then by its collapse and the local political reorganization that follows.”

Relative regional closure is a precondition of the applicability of the model of endogenous oscillation.

Kohler et al. note that their findings support Turchin’s model in terms of being “helpful in isolating periods in which the relationship between violence and population size is not as expected.

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City SystemsChina – Middle Asia – Europe

World system interaction dynamics

The basic idea of this series is to look at rise and fall of cities embedded in networks of exchange in different regions over the last millennium… and

How innovation or decline in one region affects the other

How cityrise and cityfall periods relate to the cycles of population and sociopolitical instability described by Turchin (endogenous dynamics in periods of relative closure)

How to expand models of historical dynamics from closed-period endogenous dynamics to economic relationships and conflict between regions or polities, i.e., world system interaction dynamics

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Population P Rural and Urban

Y0

Sufficient statistics to include population and q parameters plus spatial distribution and network configurations of transport links among cities of different sizes and functions.

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China – Middle Asia - Europe

The basic idea of the next series will be to measure the time lag correlation between variations of q in China and those in the Middle East/India, and Europe.

This will provide evidence that q provides a measure of city topology that relates to city function and to city growth, and that diffusions from regions of innovation to regions of borrowing

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Population P Rural and Urban

Y0

Sufficient statistics to include population and q parameters plus spatial distribution and network configurations of transport links among cities of different sizes and functions.

25

63105012398131622512199515851259100079463150139831625120015912610079.463.150.139.831.6

bin

10

8

6

4

VAR00099VAR00098VAR00097VAR00095VAR00094VAR00093VAR00092VAR00091VAR00090VAR00089VAR00088VAR00087VAR00086VAR00085VAR00084VAR00083VAR00082VAR00081VAR00080VAR00078VAR00076VAR00075VAR00074min

c1970c1950c1925c1914c1900c1875c1850c1825c1800c1750c1700c1650c1600c1575c1550c1500c1450c1400c1350c1300c1250c1200c1150c1100c1000c900

Transforms: natural log

Figure 5: Chinese Cities, fitted q-lines and actual population size data

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Table 6: Total Chinese population oscillations and q

q rangesEndogenous secular population cycle Exceptions

‘Late’ pop. rise

PopulationMaximum

Crash ‘Early’ pop. rise

Economy Captured

Exception deurbanized

q~3‘abnormal’

1800 2.771825 2.99

q~1.7‘rigid’

1100 1.721850 1.85

q~1.5Zipfian

1925 1.39 1600 1.48 1150 1.4 1970 1.49

q~1‘random’

1550 1.041950 1.06

1300 0.851350 0.851400 1.241700 1.001750 1.291900 1.14

q~.5 - .8‘chaotic’

1200 0.54 1650 0.81875 <1?

q~0 ‘flee the cities’

1250 0.02

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China – Middle Asia - Europe

The basic idea of this series of

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Population P Rural and Urban

Y0

q and κ

Population P Rural and Urban

Y0

30

Modeling City Size Data with a Double-Asymptotic Model(Tsallis q-entropy)

Deriving the two Asymptotic Coefficients (q,Y0)and the crossover parameter (kappa: ҝ)

for 24 historical periods, 900-1970from Chandler’s data in the largest world cities in each

checking that variations in the parameters for adjacent periods entail real urban system variation

and that these variations characterize historical periodsthen testing hypotheses about how these variations

tie in to what is known about World system interaction dynamics

good lord, man, why would you want to do all this?

That will be the story