Global Wood & Paper Products Trade - SWST of ppts global... · V. Future prospects VI. Questions and discussion. Society of Wood Science and Technology Convention 10-12 November 2008,

Society of Wood Science and Technology Convention10-12 November 2008, Concepción, Chile

Global Trade of Wood and Paper Products

By Ed PepkeForest Products Marketing Specialist

UNECE/FAO Timber Section, Geneva, SwitzerlandWith statistical preparation by

Jyri HietalaUniversity of Helsinki, Finland


Bienvenidos a Concepción !


Subjects

I. Overview of developmentsII. Global forest products market

trendsIII. Trade flow trendsIV. Market driversV. Future prospectsVI. Questions and discussion


Acknowledgements

• SWST, especially Dr. Jim Bowyer• Mr. Jyri Hietala, statistical preparations• Reviewers in UNECE/FAO Timber

Section, Geneva


Main sources of informationW

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

• UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2007-2008

• UNECE/FAO TIMBER database• FAO Statistics• State of Europe’s Forests 2007 by

Ministerial Conference for the Protection of Forests in Europe/UNECE/FAO

• State of the World’s Forests 2007, FAO

• UN Comtrade validated by European Forest Inst.


I. Overview of developments


Globalization of forest products trade

• Increasing affecting local economies, governments and organizations

• Positive for consumers• Negative for importing countries’

manufacturing


Products covered

• Roundwood– Industrial roundwood– Wood fuel

• Sawnwood (lumber), panels• Pulp and paper• Value-added products


Global, with emphasis on major trade

• North America (Canada and US)• Latin America (Central and South

America only, focus on Chile)• Europe• CIS (mainly Russian Federation)• Asia (mainly China)


UN Economic Commission for Europe region

Europe 42North America 2Commonwealth of Independent States, 12


II. Global forest products market trends


0

50

100

150

200

250

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006B

illio

n $

CIS North America Europe Asia Africa Latin America OceaniaSource: FAO, 2008.

Export Value of Wood and Paper Products

+54%

$102billion,Europe


N. America’s dramatic downturn – US housing starts

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

2

2005

2006

2007

2008

Mill

ion

star

ts (

SAA

R)

Single family Multi-familySource: US Census Bureau, 2008.

90% of Canada’s lumber went to the US.

Crash in lumber demand reflected in prices, imports.


Russian wood and paper exports

0102030405060708090

100

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Mill

ion

m3

Roundwood Sawnwood Market pulp Paper and paperboard

Roundwood exports falling with taxes, forest sector reorganization

Source: UNECE/FAO TIMBER database, 2008.


Import Value of Wood and Paper Products

0

50

100

150

200

250

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Bill

ion

$

CIS North America Europe Asia Africa Latin America OceaniaSource: FAOStat, 2008.

Europe &Latin AmericaShift to netexporters, 2000

US to netimporter


Trade Value Development by Major Region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

North America 1996

2006

Europe 19962006

Asia 19962006

Latin America 1996

2006

CIS 19962006

Bill

ion

$

Exports Imports Source: FAOStat, 2008.


China’s Wood and Paper Products Exports

Source: International WOOD MARKETS Group, based on Chinese Customs, 2008.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Bill

ion

$

Note: Includes sawnwood, panels, paper.


China’s Wood and Non-Wood Furniture Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Bill

ion

$

Total furniture Wooden furniture

Source: IBISWorld, 2008, and Tan, X. et al., 2007.

Largest furnitureexporter, 2006


China’s Forest Products Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007M

illio

n m

3 or

m.t

Paper and paperboard Sawnwood Wood-based panels

Sources: FAOSTAT, 2008 and Tan, X. et al., 2007.


From China to Chile


Chile’s Exports of Wood and Paper Products

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mill

ion

$

Wood pulp, chemical Sawn softwood PanelsPaper & cardboard Chips Industrial roundwood

Source: FAOStat, 2008.


Chile’s sawn softwood export destinations, 2006

• USA, $1.6 billion• Mexico, $1.0 billion• Japan, $493 million• Spain, $261 million• United Arab Emirates, $200 million• China, $159 million• 40 other countries

Source: UN Comtrade, FAO, 2008.


$5,653$3,157

$552

$237

$187

$147

$252

Source: FAO, 2008.

BrazilChile

ArgentinaUruguay

ColumbiaPeru

OtherS. American

forest products exports, 2006,

$ million

Brazil


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

$ M

illio

n

Industrial roundwood Paper and paperboard Sawnwood Panels

Uruguay’s roundwood exports increasing

Source: FAO, 2008.


2008 and 2009 forecasts from

UNECE Timber Committee


N. American sawn softwood (lumber)

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1000

m3

Production Consumption

2007 to 2008Consumption -9%Production -10%

Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, October, 2008.


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1000

m3

Imports Exports

2007 to 2008Imports -20%Exports -22%


N. American sawn softwood


60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

110 000

120 000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1000

m3


2007 to 2008 Consumption –9%Production –6%

European sawn softwood



European sawn softwood

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1000

m3

Imports Exports

2007 to 2008 Imports –14%Exports –6%



0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1000

m3


Russian sawn softwood

2007 to 2008 Consumption +12%Production +3%

Note: Dotted consumptionline is author estimate.



0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1000

m3

Imports Exports

Russian sawn softwood

2008 : Imports –12%2009: Imports +3%



III. Trade flow trends


05

1015202530354045

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006M

illio

n m

3

Europe to Europe CIS to EuropeCIS to Asia Oceania to AsiaAsia to Asia Latin America to Europe

Industrial Roundwood Trade Flows (volume)



Industrial Roundwood Trade Flows (index)

050

100150200250300350400

1996

19971998

19992000

20012002

2003

2004

20052006

Inde

x (1

996=

100)

Europe to Europe CIS to EuropeCIS to Asia Oceania to AsiaAsia to Asia Latin America to Europe



IV. Market drivers

• Socio-economic factors• Currency rate variations• Green building programs• Public procurement• Social responsibility• Climate change• Deforestation and afforestation• Alternative demands on forests


V. Future prospects

• Wood-based energy• Promotion of wood and paper products as

sustainable, recyclable materials• Continued growth of forest products markets• Greater harvests, trade, recovery• More R & D


VI. Discussion &

questions


Ed PepkeForest Products Marketing Specialist

UNECE/FAO Timber Section448 Palais des Nations

CH-1211 Geneva 10, SwitzerlandTel. +41 22 917 2872Fax +41 22 917 0041www.unece.org/[email protected]

Documents

Global Wood & Paper Products Trade - SWST of ppts global... · V. Future prospects VI. Questions and discussion. Society of Wood Science and Technology Convention 10-12 November 2008,